SB Nation User Blog: cocknfire

BlogPoll Ballot: And the top Big XII team is ...

cocknfire — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 07:05:06 -0000

Oklahoma.

By the very, very thinnest of margins, Oklahoma has done slightly better than Texas this year. And, of course, I have charts.

First, the schedule chart. I've changed my mind about having FCS teams in there, because putting them as the worst win actually hurts a team more than leaving them out altogether.

Of course, if you wanted to be more concise, you could wrap it up like this:

Oklahoma has outscored opponents by about three points more per game against a schedule that's about equally strong. And now, Texas and Oklahoma against common opponents that were not each other.

Oklahoma State and Texas Tech were clearly better wins for Oklahoma, Kansas was better for Texas, and they both defeated Bayor and Texas A&M by too many to give one a clear advantage.

All that swung the vote ever so slightly to Oklahoma. Even at this point, I'm not sure that's who should be No. 3, so I'm open to any comments you have about this.

Despite all of that, I still think Texas and not Oklahoma should play in the Big XII Championship Game. A lot of what helps Oklahoma in those first two charts are nonconference games. While Oklahoma had the better year overall, Texas probably had the better year in the Big XII and might be the better team. (Remember, I'm a resume voter, not a power poll voter, when it comes to the BlogPoll.)

In any case, I'm not voting for Big XII Champion. I'm voting for which 25 teams had the best seasons. One would hope that's what the USA Today and Harris poll voters are doing. If so, it's ridiculous and wrong to use that to determine who should play in the league's championship game. And the conference should be ashamed of itself for letting that happen.

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Florida	--
2	Alabama	--
3	Oklahoma	1
4	Texas	1
5	Penn State	--
6	Southern Cal	--
7	Utah	--
8	Texas Tech	--
9	Ohio State	--
10	Boise State	--
11	Oklahoma State	--
12	TCU	14
13	Missouri	1
14	Cincinnati	1
15	Georgia Tech	3
16	Georgia	3
17	Mississippi	6
18	Ball State	1
19	Boston College	1
20	Florida State	4
21	Pittsburgh	5
22	Iowa	1
23	Oregon State	9
24	Oregon	2
25	Michigan State	1

Dropped Out: West Virginia (#19), Miami (Florida) (#22), Northwestern (#25).

TCU moved that high because I have some reason to hate almost everyone else on the ballot. Missouri is a question mark: It wasn't a "bad" loss and it didn't come against a "bad" team, so maybe moving them down one isn't too little punishment, even though it seems to be that way. Oklahoma State lost by about what one would expect them to. If you want me to move them, suggest a replacement. Everything else is pretty much self-explanatory. Yes, I did keep Oregon State ahead of Oregon, and the reasons are: Southern Cal and Cal, which are two good wins that Oregon State has and Oregon doesn't. Northwestern moves off the blalot because TCU, Pittsburgh and Oregon had to go somewhere.

Same quesiton as always: Where am I wrong?

So Much for Conference Supremacy: ACC rolls and other Week 14 action

cocknfire — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 05:37:20 -0000

Not exactly what we had in mind.

If the title of this post has a familiar ring to it, that's intentional. Back in mid-October, after Florida blew LSU out of the water in a 51-21 shellacking, the weekly wrap-up was titled "So Much for Western Supremacy."

As damaging as LSU's loss was to the notion that the SEC West was the stronger half of the league, Saturday's triple defeat at the hands of the ACC was an even worse setback for the idea that the SEC is the best conference in the land. Just moments after South Carolina fell 31-14 to Clemson, Georgia ended a 45-42 loss at the hands of Georgia Tech. Wake Forest's 23-10 victory over Vanderbilt hours later clinched a losing record for the SEC against its neighboring BCS league, a conference that national and local pundits alike had mocked for weeks.

Is the ACC better than the SEC? Probably not. Given the up-again, down-again pattern followed by most of ACC's teams, all three of those games could end differently if the games were played again this week. And the weekend was not the kind of head-to-head match-up that would have seen the top-rated ACC team take on the top-rated SEC team and on down the line.

But the games will not be played this week, and no such SEC-ACC tournament is scheduled. The best conference in America does not go 4-6 against the ACC in a season, nor does it go 1-3 in a weekend. You'll have to look for someone else.

Florida, in the meantime, was Florida. They amassed 502 yards to Florida State's 242, ran the ball 46 for 317 yards (6.9 ypc) and, as usual, had scored enough points by late in the first half (21 at the 5:33 mark) to win the game. The final margin -- 45-15 -- was proof that the Gators are playing on a different plane than anyone else in the SEC, save Alabama.

Not that everything came out the way the Gators had hoped: Percy Harvin is questionable for the SEC Championship Game. Though, as Nick Saban points out, that's not exactly a reason for Alabama to hold a parade.

"They really have three players. ... No. 1 (Harvin), No. 2 (Jeff Demps) and No. 3 (Chris Rainey). It's easy to remember. They're all outstanding players with big-play ability. They also have outstanding receivers and a Heisman-winning quarterback (Tim Tebow). They utilize all those players in different roles.
"Certainly, we respect Percy Harvin as a great player. But they have some other great players, too."

Alabama, for its part, dismantled Auburn 36-0 on Saturday, gaining 412 yards to Auburn's 170, earning 21 first downs to the Tiger's eight and finishing off Auburn's talk of various thumbs and fingers. The most suprising statistics in the game: Mario Fannin's longest rush was for eight yards, as was Brad Lester's. Ben Tate's long run was for three yards. A 13-yard run by Kodi Burns would be the longest run of the day.

There's not much more to explain from this weekend. For the time, at least, the SEC is a two-team league. Those teams will meet Saturday, in the game everyone has anticipated now for weeks. Everything else is detail.

OTHER WEEKEND RECAPS AT TSK:

And Phil Fades Away -- Tennessee 28, Kentucky 10

Thanks for the memories? Doubtful -- Arkansas 31, LSU 30

Where did that come from? Ole Miss 45, Mississippi State 0

Poll

The best conference in the country this year is ...

Topics for Discussion // 11.29.08

cocknfire — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 03:49:15 -0000

Okay, so it's a down year. But we can't beat the ACC?!? Apparently not. The SEC was 3-3 against its purportedly inferior competitor coming into Saturday, then watched Georgia and South Carolina upset by in-state rivals and Vanderbilt lose to Wake Forest. Those games and the triumph by Florida against Florida State left the SEC 4-6 against the ACC. More on this tomorrow, but how badly does this damage the reputation of the SEC?

Bowl schedule: More muddled. Everything would have been much easier had Georgia and South Carolina just won -- but they didn't, so here where are. Let's assume both Florida and Alabama make the BCS, which seems like a safe bet at this point. My best guess would still put Georgia in the Capital One Bowl, but the Orlando postseason matchup could decide to take Ole Miss. For the moment, we'll say they choose the Dawgs. That would put Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl and probably keep South Carolina in the Outback (deserving or not). Now the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl can select Kentucky, LSU or Vanderbilt. This is where the chaos starts. Go with Vanderbilt, and you've got an angry LSU that gets kicked down to the Music City Bowl while Kentucky goes to the Liberty. Go with LSU in the Peach, and you've got an angry Music City Bowl forced to choose from a home team that won't sell hotel rooms (Vanderbilt) or a team that's been there, done that -- the last two years. Whoever gets left out in that scenario goes to the Liberty. But put Ole Miss in the Capital One Bowl and LSU in the Cotton Bowl, and then things get real interesting. Georgia and South Carolina are suddenly fighting for the Outback Bowl, with the loser hoping to go to the Peach and giving us the angry Music City Bowl. Welcome to parity. Where am I wrong?

Croom is gone. Who in the world would take the Mississippi State job? I mean, really; do you think any prominent head coach is going to answer a call from the Bulldogs? The more I think about this, the more I begin to wonder if this wasn't a bad decision by whoever made it. Croom had his issues, and the program had stalled, but now you have to start over without a clear candidate for the job.

It's a three-way tie in the Big XII South. Who should go to the championship game? Remember, it's Oklahoma, Texas AND Texas Tech. Also outside the SEC: Wouldn't Rick Neuheisel like nothing better than to keep Southern Cal from getting the Pac-10 crown? More importantly, can he? And if Southern Cal wins the Pac-10, who gets the other BCS berth: Ohio State or Boise State? Oregon State -- America hates you.

And Phil Fades Away -- Tennessee 28, Kentucky 10

cocknfire — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 02:40:02 -0000

Say what you want about Phil Fulmer -- and we all have said quite a bit during his lengthy tenure as head coach at Tennessee -- but the man loved his players. When Erin Andrews came out to interview him after the end of his last, emotional game against Kentucky, he asked her to wait a moment and allow him to pray with his players. After that, he resumed the interview and then was carried off the field on the shoulders of his players.

As it should have been. What happened to Fulmer in the last few years at Tennessee is hard to diagnose. Maybe he didn't recruit enough high-quality talent. Maybe he was never the same coach without David Cutcliffe. Or maybe the game has, to use the cliche, passed Fulmer by.

Yes, there were good times, too, Phil. National championship, SEC titles, etc., etc.

In any case, the irony is that Fulmer had finally found a way to win with this year's team: Run the ball until you can't run it anymore. And then run it again. The Vols ran the ball 53 times for 210 yards against Kentucky and attempted just eight passes, six of them completions that netted 101 yards. It was the second straight SEC game where Tennessee completely abandoned the pass -- and their second straight SEC win.

On Monday, we are told, Lane Kiffin will take the reins at Tennessee. And, at least for the present, Fulmer will be largely forgotten, unless he gets job somewhere else. (In Starkville, perhaps?) But, in our later years, it's likely that many of us will once again have something to say about Fulmer.

"I remember when ... "

Until then, he went out a winner of his final game. Love him or hate him, that's also how it should have been.

Reasons South Carolina lost to Clemson

cocknfire — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 20:19:19 -0000

Reasons South Carolina lost to Clemson

Chris Smelley
Chris Smelley
Chris Smelley
Third-down defense
Chris Smelley

Croom Resigns -- Early Thoughts

cocknfire — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 18:46:28 -0000

Over the last five years, the fans in the SEC have had a lot of fun at Sylvester Croom's expense. After all, his teams were usually awful: 3-8 in 2004, 3-8 in 2005, 3-9 in 2006.

Then came the 8-win, luck-fueled season of 2007, and it seemed that Croom might be able to get enough time to get something started.

No such luck.

The windows of Starkville are safe with Croom's voice gone.

To be fair, there were problems at Mississippi State before Croom arrived. Jackie Sherrill went 3-8 in 2001, 3-9 in 2002 and 2-10 in 2003. But save last year's fluke, Croom did nothing to remedy those issues. Yes, he was saddled with NCAA sanctions from the Sherrill Era, but no one who's watched this team over the last few years can see any tangible signs of progress.

Probably not even Croom, were he honest.

Sylvester	Croom
2004	3-8
2005	3-8
2006	3-9
2007	8-5
2008	4-8
Total	21-38

It's not a surprise that Croom resigned; there was no one Mississippi State could fire the first black coach in the SEC. But expect that to still be an aspect of the coverage. Fair or not, this is the Deep South we're talking about, and Croom was the SEC Coach of the Year last season and just had that 8-win season. It wil come up.

For that reason, I wonder if the Mississippi State administration tried to avoid this. There was a good deal of talk about the possibility of Croom being asked to fire offensive coordinator Woody McCorvey and the likelihood Croom would resist getting rid of his most loyal and trusted assistant. Perhaps Mississippi State gave Croom that ultimatum and he declined, leading to a request for the head coach's resignation. All of that, though, is likely to come out over the next few days.

As to who might appear in Starkville for next season -- who knows? Bobby Johnson is a possibility, I suppose, though a long shot. Any Bulldog fan who thinks the school can draw a "name" coach is probably in for a rude awakening, unless Tommy or Terry Bowden qualifies as a name coach. Both could be considered here, though Terry's name will likely be quickly removed from the list. Then there's always Bobby Petrino ...

Weekend Open Thread

Poll

Mississippi State -- better or worse without Croom?

BREAKING NEWS: ESPN says Croom resigns

cocknfire — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 18:09:20 -0000

Veazey: Looks true, awaiting on-the-record "sources" and such journalistic nonsense.

Bulldawg Junction: It's happened.

Scout.com has it here. (HT: kleph)

Here's the ESPN article (also HT: kleph)

AP confirms it.

Tuscaloosa News reports it.

Weekend Open Thread

cocknfire — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 06:04:29 -0000

Six good games lined up for us this Saturday, the last one in this year's regular season. Incredibly sad to type that. But here's the schedule:

No. 18 Georgia Tech at No. 13 Georgia, noon ET, CBS
South Carolina at Clemson, noon ET, ESPN2
No. 2 Florida at No. 22 Florida State, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Auburn at No. 1 Alabama, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Kentucky at Tennessee, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN 2
Vanderbilt at Wake Forest, 7 p.m. ET, ESPNU

I'll be around from time to time; I doubt I'll be able to sit at the computer for 10 straight hours. Share your thoughts and comments below.

FIVE REASONS: South Carolina vs. Clemson

cocknfire — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 06:14:23 -0000

Go to the Game Thread to leave your thoughts about the battle of Good vs. Evil and Well-Done Color Scheme vs. Eye-Bleeding Monstrosity.

1. ACC vs. SEC. I kind of made fun of Ron Morris for his picks, but he makes one good point before going round the bend:

Middle-of-the-pack SEC vs. middle-of-the-pack ACC makes for easy pick.

You could argue that there's a gulf of difference between South Carolina's "middle of the pack" (7-4, 4-4 SEC, 6-4 vs. FBS) and The Team from the Upstate's "middle of the pack" (6-5, 4-4 ACC, 4-5 vs. FBS). But that doesn't really matter. Morris is right that South Carolina's .500 record in the SEC is worth more than The Team from the Upstate's .500 mark in the ACC. Every league in America is better than the ACC, with the possible exception of the Big East. South Carolina is better prepared for a big game.

2. Not the DaviSpiller monster you remember. In fact, James Davis and C.J. Spiller have looked downright mortal this year, combining for 110 ypg. Neither has rushed for more than 100 yards in a game since both of them did it against Maryland on Sept. 27. In years past, this was a running back tandem to fret over. But this year, much like the rest of The Team from the Upstate, there's no reason to be concerned about them.

3. Steve Spurrier: Most important game. HBC clearly feels this is a huge match-up for the Gamecocks.

Your in-state rival game is the biggest game of the year unless you're playing for the conference championship. We aren't doing that, so it's our biggest game of the year.

That means the trick plays and offensive scheming will be out in full force. You have to believe that Spurrier will have a few things none of us have seen before ready for the Tiggers. Here's betting they'll work.

4. The South Carolina defense. Even after the disaster in the Swamp, the Gamecocks are the 11th-ranked defense in the nation; the Team from the Upstate ranks 85th in total offense. This could be a fun game for Eric Norwood and Co.

5. One quarterback. I might not think it's the right choice, but at least it's a choice. I would argue that it takes more talented quarterbacks to thrive in a rotation, not less talented signal-callers. But, in any case, Chris Smelley is our quarterback. And to not have a plural in that sentence is a good thing.

1. The passing game. This has less to do with Smelley -- I think he'll be fine -- than with The Team from the Upstate's defense. The Farmers are ranked 5th against the pass and have the nation's 15th-ranked pass efficiency defense. If they manage to pick off a pass or two, Spurrier's promise to stay with Smelley through the entire game might fall by the wayside.

2. History. Let's face it, the Gamecocks haven't exactly had a great deal of success against the Team from the Upstate, going 37-64-4 all time and 8-15-1 away from Columbia. There are more lopsided "rivalries" in college football, but not many. It's time to change that, but until the Gamecocks do, it's something to consider.

3. C.J. Spiller. He and Davis might not be having that much success running the ball, but Spiller is still a talented player (I've always seen him as the better of the two), and he averages 138.9 all-purpose ypg. He catches, he returns, he does a little bit of everything -- meaning he gets plenty of opportunities to defeat us.

4. Rushing offense. Meanwhile, South Carolina's rushing offense is, to say the least, mediocre. Whine all you want about Mike Davis, or about the critcism of Mike Davis, the fact of the matter is that the ground attack isn't much of an attack right now. It's more of a feint. If there's a weakenss in The Team from the Upstate's defense, it's against the running game. Can the Gamecocks take advantage?

5. It's a rivalry. Throw out the records; they don't matter. The Team from the Upstate might not be the better team on paper, but that might not make much difference. And they have some added motivation -- keeping Dabo Swinney and going to a bowl -- the Gamecocks can't match.

PREDICTION: I'd love to say "I told you so," but really I didn't. I just chose the Gamecocks before the season because I never choose The Team from the Upstate to win this game. (It's superstitious, really; if I always choose the Gamecocks to win this game, I can't cause problems by choosing them in a particular year. It makes much more sense in my head.) In any case, this is the perfect set-up for the Gamecocks to win: TTFTU isn't very good this year, there's uncertainty in their future and South Carolina is the better team on paper. Here's hoping they're the better team on the field, as well. South Carolina 24, Clemson 17

Ron Morris' picks

cocknfire — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 06:00:15 -0000

Ron Morris' picks

I stopped picking on Ron Morris a long time ago, but some of these are just too good. South Carolina is apparently going to defeat Clemson 42-6 and Alabama is going to wax Auburn 56-3. The Gamecocks average 22.4 ppg and their season high is 34, against both N.C. State and Arkansas. And the Tide's offense averages 31.7 ppg and scored a season high of 49 against Arkansas. They haven't scored more than 40 since the end of September. Um, rivarly game, anyone?