My baseball interest is of course rooted in and focused through the lens of the Pittsburgh Pirates.  So yes- I understand the homeward predilection involved with the statement, bu it seems to me that Pirates farm system is likely one of the most enigmatic in the game.  How so?  Well, it's chock-full of enigmas.

Every farm system has its questions, puzzlements, and idiosyncrasies.  But with the Pirates, the queries often turn round on themselves, indignantly unanswerable as they drive fans and would-be prognosticators in circles. 

And thus, to the point: I present a choice selection of some of the more- you guessed it- enigmatic Bucco prospects.  I'd like to hear some opinions, especially those possessed of more knowledge than my own, as to the true nature and baseball fate of those herein named.

Today: the Pitchers

Tim Alderson:  His prospect status in the scouting community has fallen off of a cliff.  Any real chance the fastball returns to solid-average and the curveball finds its former bite?  I fear he could end up as command-specialist middle reliever.

Rudy Owens:  Great changeup, solid fastball, but can he continue to post strikeouts at higher levels? Opinions seem to differ greatly on Rudy.

Jeff Locke:  "Live arm" gets tagged to him quite a bit, as he comes with the reputation of potentially plus fastball without a whole lot of control.  High K rates from last year dipped tremendously with the Buccos, albeit along with an improving ERA.  I really have no idea what to make of Jeff Locke at this point.

Zach Von Rosenberg:  ZVR is repeatedly described as a "high-ceiling" prospect, with the potential of a true front-end starter.  While I still love the 6th round pick, I find such description curious given his lack of a plus pitch.  However, he's got loads of projectability (was reportedly regularly touching 93 after he quit shortstop; is a true plus FB out of the question?), a solid changeup, and Rudy Owens-esque command. 

Quenton Miller: My pick for breakout pitcher of the year in 2010.  Greatly improved as the year went on- check out his monthly splits- and at only 19, young for the level.  Fastball and breaking ball both could be plus, yet he seems to get very little love.

Brad Lincoln:  Lincoln is a perfect example of the volatile nature of prospecting and scouting service consensus in particular.  When drafted, was described as potential #1 with vicious curve and mid-90s FB.  Then Tommy John happens, and he disappears from the radar.  Fast forward to mid-season 2009: Lincoln is torching AA, his stuff reputedly almost what it was before surgery.  Fast-forward again to now:  late surge provides bright spot for highly uninspiring AAA performance as he is almost universally described as a potential #3 starter.  Can he recover further and move on to an Adam Wainwright-esque career trajectory?  Certainly would be nice.

Trent Stevenson:  The definition of "projectable" and already throwing 92-94.  However, projectability certainly does not mean results.  Do any of his other pitches have any potential or polish at all?

Victor Black:  Black dials up his fastball all the way to 96-97 and flashes the makings of a good breaking ball.  The knock on him is that he's old for his rawness and lack of polish, but he didn't start pitching regularly until much later than most prospects.  Surprisingly positive track record of small-school and community college guys making impact as MLB starters provides a small bit of rationale for Victor Black being my #2 pitching breakout candidate for 2010.

Your own thoughts and opinions are most welcome and most encouraged.

Hey all, so it seems all but definite that the Buccos are headed for the 2nd pick in the 2010 draft.  Now, while the scouting reports and rankings of the players available for said draft are certain to change, it is HIGHLY unlikely that anyone comes out of nowhere to solidify himself as a viable #2 overall selection.  One need only compare the preliminary player rankings to those done immediately pre-draft on Baseball America and Perfect Game Crosschecker to confirm this statement. 

Basically, the purpose of this post is to discuss potential selections, and feel free to ask questions regarding player scouting reports and the like.  While I certainly do not claim to be a scout or professional analyst, I pay very close attention to the MLB draft (even this far ahead of time) and have subscriptions to the major prospect and college-player rankings sites.  Thus, I believe my opinion to be at least worth something, since it's mostly derivative of the opinions of actual experts (such as Allen Simpson, Greg Schimmel, Jim Callis, Keith Law, and others).

Post away!

Anyone like to speculate as to where the likes of  the draft guys (Von Rosenberg, Cain, Stevenson, Dodson, Pounders, Black) will start the 2010 season, or how aggressively they're likely to be promoted?  I'm hoping ZVR and Cain show enough to begin at West Virginia, perhaps participating in extended Spring before making their respective debuts.

Also, it's been suggested that depending on performance, Starling Marte and moreso Tony Sanchez may see AA next year, perhaps by July.  Thoughts as to the legitimacy of such claims?

On a side note, what are the chances Alvarez pulls a Weiters and reaches the Majors in late May or early June?

I'm relatively new around here; just stumbled upon the site a little more than a week ago.  Since then, Bucs Dugout has basically become my homepage.

After dealing with incessantly angry and misinformed Pirates fans, often even attempting to have actual discussions with them, I began to assume such ignoramuses encompassed the extreme majority of Buccos followers.  This site has proved my assumption to be just that: an assumption.

Charlie, I think you run the best Pirates blog/site on the internet (and that is saying something, as there are some pretty decent ones, i.e. buccofans.com).  In contrast to many supposed "experts," including many of the other moderators on sbnation, you are well-informed, well-researched, and well-spoken. 

 To the knowldable posters (gorkysn'beans, Vlad, BurgherKing, McCutchenIsTheTruth, and many others whose names currently elude me, for example): your insights and opinions are much appreciated, even those with which I disagree.  Also, a special shoutout to WTM: love the player profiles, love the general info.

In conclusion, I'm sure I sound like a complete tool, but I just wanted to say "thanks."

I said this in another post concerning allocation of funds; figured I'd make it it's own post to get some thoughts.

If it were up to me, I would allocate 20 million flat-out to the draft, selecting players based only on talent without a thought as to cost. If one were to apply such a philosophy to the 2009 draft (and assuming NH would take Tony Sanchez first no matter what, given his apparent obsession with him), the Pirates could have proceeded to pick highly-rated-but-tough-to-sign players such as P Alex Wilson with the supplemental 1st round pick, 2B D.J. Lemahieu with the 2nd, OF Todd Glaessman in the 3rd, 1B Jeff Malm in the 4th, P Brooks Raley in the 5th, and the actual 6th-8th round signability selections of Von Rosenberg, Stevenson, and Cain. With a 20 million draft budget, the Bucs could easily sign all 8, as well as more high-upside signability guys throughout the rest of the draft. Such a haul would surely outmatch that of any other team, and the amount of talent brought in utilizing this strategy year after year would all but neutralize the need to look to the free agent market for talent while creating an endlessly sustainable (and comparatively cheap) championship level club.

So, thoughts?

Below is my version of the Pirates current top 10 players aged 25 and younger.  I got the idea from Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein, who publishes such a list alongside each team’s top 11 prospects.  I find that this format gives the best overall picture of a club’s future.

Feel free to comment on mine and post your own.

1. Andrew McCutchen- I’m convinced he will be a legitimate star player year-in and year-out.  His recent flashes of power are evidence of 20-25 HR ability he will tap into as he puts weight and muscle on his wiry frame.  With foot speed compared to that of Deion Sanders to go along with plus bat speed and patience at the age of only 22, McCutchen could put up seasons of 20 HRs, 40 SBs, a .310 BA, and .850+ OPS.  For a centerfielder with good-to-outstanding defensive ability, those numbers scream “All-star,” and may even collect a few MVP votes on a playoff team.
2. Pedro Alvarez- Most would probably rate Alvarez #1, but the strikeouts and possible move to 1B still scare me.  He has performed much better defensively as of late, committing only 1 error in his past 25 games, which leads me to believe he could stay at 3B where his value is much, much higher.  A 3B with a .270 BA and 35-40 HRs is a perennial All-star (a la Eric Chavez in his prime); a 1B with those same numbers is considered well above average for the position, but hardly “great.”  Still, Alvarez has shown that he excels with runners on and in clutch situations, making him a legitimate middle-of-the-order power bat.
3. Lastings Milledge- There is definitely a drop-off from #2 to #3, though I am a Lastings believer.  His 2008 campaign in which he was only 23 speak to his power and speed potential; his minor league scouting reports indicate a solid swing capable of hitting for average.  I look for him to put up lines similar to the following in his best years: .295 BA/ 22 HRs/ 25 SBs.  Definitely solid for a #2 or low-end #3 hitter.
4. Charlie Morton- At this point we’ve seen what Morton is capable of: he has the best stuff on a solid staff, featuring a low to mid 90s fastball with late movement.  He often has the looks of a legitimate #2 starter on a good club (or #1 on a second-division team).  But alas, here’s the problem: Morton can’t seem to keep it up as the game wears on, often falling apart in the 6th or 7th innings.  If he can pitch better deeper into games, the righty by himself makes the McClouth trade a definite win for the Pirates.
5. Jose Tabata- Assuming he’s actually 20 (Jim Callis seems to doubt this), Tabata has been extremely impressive against older competition, showing the potential to be a very high average hitter.  However, he already seems to be losing his speed, and has displayed good doubles power but little in the ways of home runs.  Hopefully some of those doubles turn into homers and Tabata becomes a true corner outfielder the production to warrant the 5th spot in a good lineup.
6. Jeff Clement- Despite floundering in major league debut, Clement has enough power to make him a decent firstbasemen.  If he can hit .270, even .260, his left-handed swing should produce around 25 HRs.  His AAA stats the past two years have been very impressive; I think the former five-star prospect may have been overlooked and lost in the shuffle by Seattle.  Then again, he could be Steve Pearce 2.0…
7. Tim Alderson- Amidst concerns that his velocity is down to 88-90 mph, the 20 year-old has still managed to sport a sub-3.45 ERA against older AA competition.  However, his strikeouts are down considerably from last year, which is never a good sign.  He still profiles as a very solid #3, thriving on control and a nasty breaking ball, and again, he’s only 20.  Even if he spends all of next year repeating AA and all of the following at AAA, his rookie season will take place in just his 23rd year.
8. Andy LaRoche- No Pirate frustrates me like Andy LaRoche.  The slick-gloved 3B absolutely dominated all levels of the minor leagues, resulting in Baseball Prospectus naming him the 14th best prospect in all of baseball for the 2008 season.  Yet, such apparent potential has yet to result in sustained Major League production. After getting his BA above .315 earlier in the year, LaRoche has grossly underachieved with the bat, as he is currently hitting .262 with only 4 homers.  The Pirates’ front office swear he will hit and hit for power, but I’m more than a little suspect of such claims.  Add 10 points to his BA and double his home run total; you still end up with a below-average 3B.  Given the excellent and oft-athletic defense he’s shown this season, I, like many others, have wondered if he couldn’t learn 2B, where his bat would play and possibly play up.  I know there is little chance of such a switch, but if Andy wants to remain an everyday starter on a Major League club, it may be necessary.
9. Brad Lincoln- Lincoln looked incredible in AA this year, posting a 2.28 ERA and a healthy 65 Ks in 75 innings.  Conversely, he’s looked merely average since his promotion to AAA, sporting a 4.58 ERA with only 21 Ks in 37.1 innings.  It’s still early at a new level, and his stuff has flashed just as good if not better than what the Pirates hoped when they picked him 4th overall in the 2006 draft, so those numbers may just be a bump in the road. 
10. Tony Sanchez- I was quite steamed when the Buccos took Sanchez 4th overall this year, ahead of the likes of highly-touted and seasoned hurlers Aaron Crow, Jacob Turner, and Alex White, but based on the early returns, Neil may have known what he was doing.  The draft overall turned out to have the potential to be a great one, as their innovative strategy resulted in several high-ceiling arms later on.  Much of how it (and Neil’s strategy) will be remembered, however, depends on the production of Tony Sanchez. Scouts have called for a BA in the region of .290-.300 along with 10-12 HRs.  However, his production in the tough ACC (.346 BA, 14 HRs as a Junior) and thus far at West Virginia seem to suggest the possibility for better numbers. Assuming his defense lives up to its gold glove caliber hype, Sanchez could be a regular All Star if he reaches his potential with the bat.

Honorable Mention

Matt Capps:  Let’s hope this year is an aberration, though I fear it isn’t.

Starling Marte:  Rene Gayo has said he’ll be a star; his production and true 5-tool talent second that notion.

Quinton Miller: Best stuff in the system featuring a plus fastball; only 19 and flashing potential at West Virginia.

Rudy Owens: Ridiculous numbers at LoA make one wonder why it’s taken this long for him to be promoted.

Robbie Grossman: Apparently faster than originally thought, but where’s the power?  Like Miller, still only 19.

Jose Ascanio: Kind of a sleeper.  I’m still hoping the Bucs give him a chance to start in the majors as he possesses the power arm they’ve long sought.

The purpose of this thread is to discuss which (if any) prospects are likely to be promoted a level the rest of this season.

Examples:

Clement a September call-up?

Alvarez gets a stint at AAA?

Sanchez to HiA?  I personally really hope this happens; I highly doubt he would be in over his head given his ACC college accomplishments.

Starling Marte to HiA?  A longshot, but he definitely seems ready.

Any other logical suggestions or possibilities are welcome, though please try to limit discussion to actual prospects (i.e. not Yoslan Herrera).

Thoughts as to from where, exactly, a potential Pirates "ace" will come.

This year's draft? (ZVR, Cain, Stevenson)

Lincoln or Alderson? (I like them both as very solid mid-rotation starters, but a true "ace"? doubtful.)

Next year's draft?

Within the lower levels of the organization? (Quinton Miller, basically)

Please don't say "Charlie Morton"- I'm a big fan of his, but realistically, he is not going to be any sort of legitimate #1 starter.