SBNation.com User Blog: colin

DLD 2011-07-14 -- Rankings

colin — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 17:33:35 -0000

A DLD for a second day in a row!? Unheard of! But it's really happening, because we clearly need something to take our minds off of baseball around here.

So… I put together a quick list ranking people based on the number of arms they have. That doesn't have anything to do with the Oakland Athletics, does it?

1. The Six-Fingered Man

Not only does he have two good arms, but he has 10% more fingers than everyone else!

2. Jose Bautista

Two arms, both of which are very good at hitting baseballs.

3. Felix Hernandez

Mariners+v+New+York+Yankees+ZroAmp9EVp3l.jpg" alt="Felix Hernandez right arm">

That right arm is pretty special, but I frankly have no idea about the left arm.

4. Almost everybody else

All of you beautiful two-armed people.

5. Bloomie

He has two arms for now, but who knows for how much longer?

6. The One-Armed Man

Self-explanatory.

7. Brett Anderson

Yep, he comes in behind the one-armed man.

8. The Black Knight

It's just a flesh wound… nothing that Tommy John surgery can't fix.

GOG 2011 #18

colin — Fri, 27 May 2011 12:10:03 -0000

After a dramatic week, and somehow pulling off a split in the four game series against the Angels, I'm sure everyone on the A's is hoping for a smooth, uneventful beatdown of the approximately last place Orioles (they are in a virtual tie with Toronto). You might point out that the A's are in last place as well, and with a worse record than Baltimore, but the Pythagorean records tell a much different story -- the Orioles have been significantly outscored this season while the A's have actually slightly outscored their opponents. Could that gap between the Oakland's expected record and their true record be due to Geren's mismanagement? (and maybe a little bit from that 14-0 blowout last week)

GOG 2011 #18 -- Migratory Birds Visit Oakland

Long questions ahead...

UPDATE -- scores and results added!

Predict the series outcome. [3 points] 3-0 Oakland!
After half the Oakland starting staff bit the dust last week, Outman and Moscoso came to the rescue with a pair of quality starts. According to Bill James' Game Score, Moscoso (66) narrowly beat Outman (62). Which of these two pitchers throws more innings against the Orioles? Who allows fewer earned runs? Who strikes out more hitters? [1 point each] Outman for all
So far this season, Chris Tillman has been stingy with the home runs, giving up only 2 in 43.2 innings (0.41 HR/9). You might think this is because he is an extreme groundballer, but actually he is a flyball pitcher (39% career GB%) who happens to be sporting a totally ridiculous and unsustainable 2.9 HR/FB percentage (i.e. only 3 percent of the flyballs he allowed this year have gone over the fence). So I'm hoping for a lot of regression from Tillman. On the other hand, he'll be throwing a night game in Oakland. Do the A's hit any home runs off Tillman? [1 point] no, of course not
Some people are disappointed with Matt Wieters because he's not hitting like Jose Bautista, but he has quietly been one of the more valuable catchers in baseball, with solid hitting and excellent defense (to the extent that we know how to measure catcher defense). Predict Wieters' PA, H, RBI [2 points each]. Does he allow any passed balls? [1 point] 8 PA, 3 H, 0 RBI, no passed balls
How many innings pitched and earned runs for Fuentes? How about for Balfour? [2 points each, 8 possible] Finally, does Andrew Bailey make an appearance in the series? [1 point] 2 IP, 0 ER for Fuentes; 2 IP, 0 ER for Balfour; Bailey does pitch
Fangraphs recently added Mitchel Lichtman's Ultimate Base Running (UBR) stat. So far, the Oakland team leader is Mark Ellis, who has been worth +0.4 runs on the basepaths. Team stolen base leader (by a huge margin) Coco Crisp has a UBR of only +0.1 runs, probably because he has been caught stealing five times. How many Oakland stolen bases for the series? How many Athletics get caught stealing? [2 points each] 3 SB, 0 CS
Daric Barton's complete lack of power (.063 ISO -- that's below Juan Pierre's career mark!!) has been a major drag on his value this season. On top of it, he's sporting an unlucky .254 BABIP (especially unlucky because his line drive percentage is a solid 19%) which is dragging down his batting average. Predict Barton's H, BB, and XBH. [2 points each] 3 H, 2 BB, 0 XBH

The series starts tonight at 7:05. Post your guesses!

Results

Here are the standings, through GOG #18...

Name	# of GOG	This GOG		Total points		GOG wins
Name	# of GOG	Score	Rank	Score	Rank	Count	Rank
King Richard	13	22	1	124	19	1	5
cuppingmaster	18	20	2	190	3	2	3
UrgentMirth	18	19	3	202	2	1	5
GoAs	15	19	3	125	18	0	20
doctorK	15	17	5	152	14	1	5
danmerqury	18	17	5	189	4	0	20
weenmAN	16	16	7	155	13	1	5
A'sBowlingLeague	11	16	7	98	23	0	20
Athletix Man	18	16	7	168	9	1	5
buddahead9	15	15	10	170	8	3	2
longtimeasfan	17	15	10	173	6	1	5
CmdrKhraanik	16	14	12	157	12	0	20
vignette17	18	14	12	216	1	4	1
oblique	17	13	14	138	16	1	5
nevermoor	17	13	14	173	6	2	3
twinkle toes	15	12	16	159	11	1	5
colin	14	11	17	134	17	0	20
paris7	18	11	17	179	5	1	5
streetfan	15	10	19	124	19	0	20
Berry Jo	17	10	19	150	15	0	20
micdog2001	10	8	21	79	24	0	20
harenshair	1	DNP	DNP	0	50	0	20
shudiddy	2	DNP	DNP	9	39	0	20
OpeningDay85	4	DNP	DNP	24	29	0	20
mikev	1	DNP	DNP	0	50	0	20
thewhizkid	5	DNP	DNP	51	26	1	5
gratefuldude	1	DNP	DNP	6	44	0	20
noava22	2	DNP	DNP	19	31	0	20
SLOtown	1	DNP	DNP	1	49	0	20
offthefoulpole	1	DNP	DNP	3	47	0	20
OakA'sHoney	1	DNP	DNP	15	34	0	20
Kyli	7	DNP	DNP	69	25	1	5
PDXAthleticsfan	17	DNP	DNP	161	10	0	20
Dwayne Ross	1	DNP	DNP	6	44	0	20
stranahanahan	8	DNP	DNP	46	27	0	20
my_cat_max	1	DNP	DNP	10	37	0	20
gunnero	1	DNP	DNP	8	40	0	20
SoCal As Fan	11	DNP	DNP	107	22	1	5
Gaijin_Suketto	1	DNP	DNP	3	47	0	20
Jason Hunt	2	DNP	DNP	20	30	0	20
Where's My Burrito?	5	DNP	DNP	29	28	0	20
gambler	1	DNP	DNP	13	35	1	5
lenscrafters	14	DNP	DNP	118	21	1	5
Future Ed	1	DNP	DNP	8	40	0	20
OnlybuyBeaneJerseys	2	DNP	DNP	10	37	0	20
DDroney	1	DNP	DNP	16	32	1	5
Leopold Bloom	1	DNP	DNP	7	43	0	20
X-Pac	1	DNP	DNP	8	40	0	20
A's Believer	1	DNP	DNP	13	35	0	20
robbo650	1	DNP	DNP	5	46	0	20
ArunisArun	1	DNP	DNP	16	32	0	20

GOG 2011 #04

colin — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 12:23:17 -0000

These A's have been looking sort-of familiar lately, with their inability to score runs and pitching staff that refuses to ever give them up. The theory that Oakland pitching is enough to keep the team in contention will be severely tested in this series, when they go up against the slugging Chicago White Sox. Yeah, it is still very early in the season, but the White Sox have been putting up some really big offensive numbers – 62 runs scored! 11 home runs! team OBP is .367!! Will Braden, Cahill, and Anderson be able to shut down Dunn, Quentin, and Konerko?

And, in other GOG business, PDXAthleticsfan left a comment in GOG #03, kindly volunteering to write a bunch of GOGs. I'm going to repost his schedule below and if anyone else wants to sign up, that would be great.

GOG 2011 #04 — Shutting Down Chicago

UPDATE -- answers (courtesy of paris7) added below, in bold

Predict the series outcome. [3 points] 2-1 Oakland
Game 1 matches up Braden against Mark Buehrle, who represents Braden's best case scenario. Buerhle doesn't strike many out, but makes up for it with low walk rates (and fantastic durability, which Braden has not demonstrated). Who throws more innings? Who records more Ks? Who gives up fewer walks? [1 point each] More IP: Buehrle; More K: Braden; Fewer BB: Buehrle
US Cellular is a big home run park and the White Sox are built to take advantage of it, with Konerko, Quentin, and Adam Dunn as the new DH. How many home runs in the series for both teams combined? [3 points] 6 HR
Where did all these Trevor Cahill strikeouts come from? He has turned into a FIP-monster with 15 Ks through 12.2 innings. So far, the White Sox have struck out at a lower rate (11.8%) than any other team in baseball (of course, they are on a general offensive hot streak, so this isn't necessarily surprising). How many strikeouts for Cahill? [3 points] 3 K
The Oakland bench has provided welcome production, particularly from Andy LaRoche. Predict total at-bats, hits, and runs batted in for LaRoche, Jackson, Sweeney, and Powell (all combined). [2 points each] 23 AB, 5 H, 0 RBI
Playing small ball -- Which team steals more bases? Which team hits more sacrifice flies? Which team hits into more double plays? [1 point each] More SB: Oakland; More SF: tie; More GIDP: Oakland
After a promising rookie year and a below average 2010, Gordon Beckham is looking like a break out so far. Predict his hits, runs, and RBI. [2 points each] 1 H, 0 R, 1 RBI

Game 1 starts at 5:10 pacific, so wait until your boss isn't looking and then post your entry!

Scores

Congratulations to the winner, longtimeasfan!

mean = 6.65 points
standard deviation = 2.43 points
median = 6 points

Name	# of GOG	This GOG		Total points		GOG wins
Name	# of GOG	Score	Rank	Score	Rank	Count	Rank
longtimeasfan	4	14	1	31	7	1	1
buddahead9	3	10	2	35	5	1	1
Athletix Man	4	9	3	23	16	0	9
lenscrafters	4	9	3	40	2	1	1
danmerqury	4	9	3	34	6	0	9
colin	4	8	6	31	7	0	9
CmdrKhraanik	2	8	6	16	24	0	9
cuppingmaster	4	8	6	30	10	0	9
paris7	4	8	6	25	15	0	9
streetfan	4	7	10	29	11	0	9
vignette17	4	7	10	42	1	1	1
SoCal As Fan	3	7	10	27	14	0	9
Where's My Burrito?	3	7	10	17	22	0	9
oblique	3	6	14	17	22	0	9
A'sBowlingLeague	2	6	14	9	30	0	9
UrgentMirth	4	6	14	31	7	0	9
nevermoor	4	6	14	37	3	1	1
Jason Hunt	2	6	14	20	18	0	9
OpeningDay85	2	5	19	7	33	0	9
weenmAN	2	5	19	12	27	0	9
Berry Jo	4	5	19	29	11	0	9
PDXAthleticsfan	4	4	22	36	4	0	9
doctorK	3	4	22	20	18	0	9
King Richard	1	3	24	3	36	0	9
OnlybuyBeaneJerseys	2	3	24	10	28	0	9
stranahanahan	4	3	24	18	21	0	9
twinkle toes	1	DNP	DNP	8	32	0	9
harenshair	1	DNP	DNP	0	38	0	9
shudiddy	2	DNP	DNP	9	30	0	9
micdog2001	3	DNP	DNP	20	18	0	9
mikev	1	DNP	DNP	0	38	0	9
thewhizkid	3	DNP	DNP	28	13	1	1
GoAs	3	DNP	DNP	21	17	0	9
Kyli	1	DNP	DNP	13	25	1	1
my_cat_max	1	DNP	DNP	10	28	0	9
Gaijin_Suketto	1	DNP	DNP	3	36	0	9
gambler	1	DNP	DNP	13	25	1	1
Leopold Bloom	1	DNP	DNP	7	33	0	9
gratefuldude	1	DNP	DNP	6	35	0	9

GOG 2011 #03

colin — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 15:28:08 -0000

The A's are limping along after another series loss (but a pretty sweet performance from Cahill, who has suddenly decided to become a strikeout pitcher) but they now get to face another 2-4 team in Minnesota. In fact, things have been going even less well for the Twins, who have scored three fewer runs than Oakland while allowing nine more (some of that could be because they had to play a three game series at New York). The Rangers can't stay perfect forever, so let's hope that this is the weekend where the A's leave their slow start behind and start gaining ground in the AL West.

I'm still shaking out the cobwebs for this GOG business, so we still don't have any results posted for rounds 1 and 2. I'll get caught up on that this weekend, so just get your answers posted here. The series starts a 1:10 pacific, so there's not much time to spare!

GOG 2011 #03 -- Terrible Twins

UPDATE -- answers (courtesy of paris7) added below, in bold

Predict the series outcome. [3 points] 2-1 Oakland
The power stroke has been nice, but I really hope that Josh Willingham doesn't continue to strike out in 50% of his at-bats (he has 11 Ks in 22 AB so far!). Predict how many strickouts! [2 points] 3 strikeouts
Shutdowns and meltdowns are a pretty interesting and intuitive way of looking at relief pitcher performance, introduced about a year ago on fangraphs. The idea is simple -- if a relief pitcher improves the team's win probability by at least 6%, they get a shutdown; if they decrease the win probability by at least 6%, they get a meltdown. Needless to say, the Oakland bullpen has compiled more meltdowns than shutdowns this season, with Breslow (2 meltdowns, 0 shutdowns) leading the way. Pick an Athletics reliever who records a shutdown against the Twins, and one who suffers a meltdown. [3 points each]Shutdowns: Balfour, Fuentes (2); Meltdowns: no one!
Coco Crisp has been keeping things exciting on offense (someone has to, right?) with two doubles, two triples(!), and three stolen bases. Predict how many extra base hits and stolen bases for the A's leadoff hitter. [2 points each] 0 XBH, 1 SB
So far in 2011, Mauer is hitting just .222 with 3 BB and no extra base hits. I'm sure he will turn it around, but hopefully that won't happen in this series. Predict his hits, walks, and runs batted in. [2 points each] 3 H, 0 BB, 1 RBI
Starting pitching has been the bright spot for the A's so far (their starting pitchers have accumulated 1.1 WAR, which is tied with the Rays and White Sox and is behind only the the Blue Jays and Rangers). The opposite has been true for the Twins, whose starting pitchers have already contributed half a win below replacement (worst in the majors). Which team gets more innings from their starters? Which teams starting pitchers record more Ks? Which teams starters allow fewer earned runs? [1 point each] Oakland for all
Twins second baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka suffered a broken leg yesterday after Nick Swisher slid into him while trying to break up a double play. Predict hits, runs, and double plays turned for Nishioka's replacement(s). [2 points each] 1 H, 0 R, 0 DP

Go Oakland!

Scores

Congratulations to the winner -- buddahead9 with 19(!) points

mean = 10.6 points
standard deviation = 3.06 points
median = 10 points

Name	# of GOG	This GOG		Total points		GOG wins
Name	# of GOG	Score	Rank	Score	Rank	Count	Rank
buddahead9	2	19	1	25	6	1	1
vignette17	3	17	2	35	1	1	1
nevermoor	3	14	3	31	3	1	1
Jason Hunt	1	14	3	14	20	0	8
PDXAthleticsfan	3	13	5	32	2	0	8
colin	3	12	6	23	10	0	8
thewhizkid	3	12	6	28	5	1	1
GoAs	3	12	6	21	13	0	8
Berry Jo	3	11	9	24	9	0	8
SoCal As Fan	2	11	9	20	14	0	8
danmerqury	3	11	9	25	6	0	8
streetfan	3	10	12	22	11	0	8
UrgentMirth	3	10	12	25	6	0	8
my_cat_max	1	10	12	10	25	0	8
doctorK	2	10	12	16	18	0	8
oblique	2	9	16	11	24	0	8
cuppingmaster	3	9	16	22	11	0	8
lenscrafters	3	9	16	31	3	1	1
micdog2001	3	8	19	20	14	0	8
CmdrKhraanik	1	8	19	8	28	0	8
longtimeasfan	3	8	19	17	16	0	8
paris7	3	8	19	17	16	0	8
stranahanahan	3	8	19	15	19	0	8
weenmAN	1	7	24	7	30	0	8
Athletix Man	3	5	25	14	20	0	8
twinkle toes	1	DNP	DNP	8	28	0	8
harenshair	1	DNP	DNP	0	37	0	8
shudiddy	2	DNP	DNP	9	27	0	8
OpeningDay85	1	DNP	DNP	2	36	0	8
mikev	1	DNP	DNP	0	37	0	8
A'sBowlingLeague	1	DNP	DNP	3	34	0	8
Kyli	1	DNP	DNP	13	22	1	1
Gaijin_Suketto	1	DNP	DNP	3	34	0	8
Where's My Burrito?	2	DNP	DNP	10	25	0	8
gambler	1	DNP	DNP	13	22	1	1
OnlybuyBeaneJerseys	1	DNP	DNP	7	30	0	8
Leopold Bloom	1	DNP	DNP	7	30	0	8
gratefuldude	1	DNP	DNP	6	33	0	8

GOG 2011 #02

colin — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 19:43:29 -0000

Sorry, it's only the second series of the season and already the GOG is going up late. I have an excuse, which involves travel and my shocked refusal to pay extra for hotel internet in this day and age. So this is going to be a short one.

After a disappointing first two games against a division rival, the A's did manage to pull off a nice win in game 3, significantly lowering my panic level. There are all sorts of interesting signs (with extra small samples!). Cahill is looking like a strikeout pitcher, Willingham provides some nice middle of the lineup production, and the bullpen has so far been a disaster. Now let's all guess where things will stand after three more games.

GOG 2011 #02 -- Half-Assed Toronto GOG

UPDATE -- Answers (courtesy of paris7) are added below, in bold.

Predict the series outcome. [3 points] 2-1 Toronto
How does "Big 5" member Brandon McCarthy fare in his first start for the A's? Predict his IP and earned runs. [2 points each] 8 IP, 4 ER
Jose Bautista had a breakout power year in 2010, hitting 54 home runs. He has picked up where he left off, with 2 home runs so far this season. Predict Bautista's BB, RBI, and total bases. [2 points each] didn't play, question canceled
In their first series, Athletics hitters saw an average of only 3.3 pitches per plate appearance, falling far short of Moneyball ideals and making Billy Beane cry. The Mariners, usually known as a free swinging bunch (they have Miguel Olivo!) averaged 4.2 pitches per plate appearance, and knocked Cahill and Anderson out of the games early as a result. Will Oakland hitters manage to see at least 4 pitches per plate appearance in this upcoming series? [2 points] no (3.89 pitches per PA)
I'm sure that the A's bullpen ERA will improve from the current 5.79 mark as the season progresses. But for now, Oakland is still missing Andrew Bailey while Breslow and Wuertz both suffer from short spring tune-ups. Which Oakland relievers have the best and worst performances, as measured by summing their Win Probability contributions over the full series. [3 points each] best is Fuentes (+0.210), worst is Balfour (-0.790)
Blue Jays ace Ricky Romero matches up well against any of the A's young rotation. He is 26 years old and struck out seven Twins with zero walks in his first 2011 start. Predict his IP, K, and BB. [2 points each] 7.1 IP, 5 K, 2 BB
I don't think I need to explain why this question is included -- How many errors do the A's defenders commit? [3 points] 2 errors

Don't forget that this series is played in the eastern time zone. Get your entries posted by 4:05 pacific time today (less than four hours!)

Scores

Congratulations to the winners -- thewhizkid, nevermoor, vignette17, and lenscrafters!

mean = 4.42 points
standard deviation = 3.37 points
median = 4 points

Name	# of GOG	This GOG		Total points		GOG wins
Name	# of GOG	Score	Rank	Score	Rank	Count	Rank
thewhizkid	2	10	1	16	5	1	1
nevermoor	2	10	1	17	4	1	1
vignette17	2	10	1	18	3	1	1
lenscrafters	2	10	1	22	1	1	1
SoCal As Fan	1	9	5	9	16	0	7
UrgentMirth	2	7	6	15	6	0	7
PDXAthleticsfan	2	7	6	19	2	0	7
shudiddy	2	5	8	9	16	0	7
streetfan	2	5	8	12	12	0	7
GoAs	2	5	8	9	16	0	7
colin	2	4	11	11	14	0	7
Berry Jo	2	4	11	13	8	0	7
paris7	2	4	11	9	16	0	7
A'sBowlingLeague	1	3	14	3	29	0	7
cuppingmaster	2	3	14	13	8	0	7
OpeningDay85	1	2	16	2	31	0	7
micdog2001	2	2	16	12	12	0	7
longtimeasfan	2	2	16	9	16	0	7
Where's My Burrito?	2	2	16	10	15	0	7
danmerqury	2	2	16	14	7	0	7
harenshair	1	0	21	0	33	0	7
mikev	1	0	21	0	33	0	7
Athletix Man	2	0	21	9	16	0	7
stranahanahan	2	0	21	7	23	0	7
oblique	1	DNP	DNP	2	31	0	7
twinkle toes	1	DNP	DNP	8	22	0	7
buddahead9	1	DNP	DNP	6	26	0	7
Kyli	1	DNP	DNP	13	8	1	1
Gaijin_Suketto	1	DNP	DNP	3	29	0	7
gambler	1	DNP	DNP	13	8	1	1
OnlybuyBeaneJerseys	1	DNP	DNP	7	23	0	7
Leopold Bloom	1	DNP	DNP	7	23	0	7
doctorK	1	DNP	DNP	6	26	0	7
gratefuldude	1	DNP	DNP	6	26	0	7

GOG 2011 #01

colin — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 01:30:12 -0000

Baseball baseball baseball. Baseball Oakland baseball baseball Athletics. Baseball baseball baseball baseball baseball!

Here we go! The 2011 season begins and the expectations for Oakland are higher than they have been in several years. Meanwhile, the Mariners are coming off of a horrendous season and look to be still far from convention. But it's a three game series and Felix Hernandez will take the mound for one of those games, to begin the defense of his Cy Young award. Could this be a seventh consecutive opening day loss for Oakland? Or do you have the same warm and fuzzy feeling about this team that I do?

If you don't know what this GOG thing is all about, or if you are a veteran but still haven't posted an entry for GOG #00, then click here now. Everyone else, just scroll down and make your guesses.

GOG 2011 #01 -- I've been waiting since September!

UPDATE -- Answers added in bold. Plus, scores are below.

Predict the series outcome. [3 points] 2-1 Seattle
Last year, the Mariners scored only 513 run, which is a whopping 74 runs less than the second worst offense (Pittsburgh) and averages out to just 3.17 runs per game. Does Seattle score 5 or more runs in any game of this series? [2 points] yes
In 2010, Trevor Cahill started the season on the DL and then in AAA. This year he gets to start game 1 against King Felix. Predict Cahill's innings pitched, earned runs, and ground ball outs. [2 points each] 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 ground-outs
How many hits, stolen bases, and runs scored for Ichiro? [2 points each] 5 H, 3 SB, 2 R
One of the many measures of offensive futility for the 2010 Mariners is the fact that they drew only 459 walks, the third worst total in the Majors (Baltimore and Houston were worse). But now they have Jack "I can watch pitches all day" Cust. How many walks in this series for Mr. Three True Outcomes? [3 points] 3 BB
With Bailey on the DL, Fuentes is expected to get most of the save opportunities. Does he allow any earned runs in this series? Does any other relief pitcher record a save? [1 point each] yes, no
Who hits the first home run for the 2011 Athletics? (if you think that no Oakland player will hit a HR in this series, then that can be your answer) [3 points] Josh Willingham
Which Oakland starter has the best game score in this series? (Game score, created by Bill James, attempts to quantify the overall performance of a starting pitcher. For more details, see here.) [2 points] Anderson
Any extra inning games? [2 points] no

You can post your answers below any time up until Cahill's first pitch. Let's go Oakland!

Results and Standings

Thanks everyone for posting their scores. However, I have to point out that Cahill had only 5 ground ball outs (not seven, like paris7 posted). So if your grade listed below is different from the one you calculated yourself, that is the reason.

mean score = 7.69 points
standard deviation = 2.82 points
median score = 7 points

I'll be keeping track of scores in three categories. Columns 1 and 2 give your names and the number of GOG that you have participated in. The next two columns give your score and rank on this GOG. After that, there are two columns which give your total score summed over all GOGs and your season ranking. For the final two columns, I'm keeping track of the number of GOGs that each person "won" (i.e. they had the best score, or tied for best). So right now, the only GOG winners are Kyli and gambler.

Name	# of GOG	This GOG		Total points		GOG wins
Name	# of GOG	Score	Rank	Score	Rank	Count	Rank
Kyli	1	13	1	13	1	1	1
gambler	1	13	1	13	1	1	1
PDXAthleticsfan	1	12	3	12	3	0	3
lenscrafters	1	12	3	12	3	0	3
danmerqury	1	12	3	12	3	0	3
micdog2001	1	10	6	10	6	0	3
cuppingmaster	1	10	6	10	6	0	3
Athletix Man	1	9	8	9	8	0	3
Berry Jo	1	9	8	9	8	0	3
twinkle toes	1	8	10	8	10	0	3
UrgentMirth	1	8	10	8	10	0	3
vignette17	1	8	10	8	10	0	3
Where's My Burrito?	1	8	10	8	10	0	3
colin	1	7	14	7	14	0	3
longtimeasfan	1	7	14	7	14	0	3
nevermoor	1	7	14	7	14	0	3
streetfan	1	7	14	7	14	0	3
OnlybuyBeaneJerseys	1	7	14	7	14	0	3
Leopold Bloom	1	7	14	7	14	0	3
stranahanahan	1	7	14	7	14	0	3
buddahead9	1	6	21	6	21	0	3
thewhizkid	1	6	21	6	21	0	3
doctorK	1	6	21	6	21	0	3
gratefuldude	1	6	21	6	21	0	3
paris7	1	5	25	5	25	0	3
shudiddy	1	4	26	4	26	0	3
GoAs	1	4	26	4	26	0	3
Gaijin_Suketto	1	3	28	3	28	0	3
oblique	1	2	29	2	29	0	3

GOG 2011 #00

colin — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 21:54:28 -0000

Hey! It's time for the baseball season and that means that the GOG is back! Actually, I really didn't give it any thought until a couple days ago. We are running out of time until opening day, so let's get started!

What is this GOG that you speak of?

GOG stands for Guess the Outcome Game. The basic idea is that we post some questions at the start of each series, everybody makes their best (or snarkiest) guesses, and then points are awarded if you get things right. The beauty of the game is that anything can happen over a short series, so even the wildest prediction might come true.

A litle GOG history -- The first GOG on AN was run by Alien (pre-SBNation username) and Jjjsixsix all the way back in 2005. Winners were easyraider and Hang Man. In 2006, AsGirl ran it, but I couldn't find any tally of the final scores. Then it was on hiatus for a couple of years until I started it up again for the 2009 season (with some help from nevermoor, doctorK, and micdog2001. The winner that year was nevermoor, and you can find an exhaustive summary of the results at this fANpost. Last year was the debut of GOG by committee plus the self-reporting tool for scores -- the 2010 final results have their own little web page.

To play the GOG, just keep an eye out for these fANposts before each series. Then read the questions and post a comment with your answers. Please try to answer clearly and keep the questions in order, because it will make things easier for grading. I thought about using google docs to make a form that people could fill out, but in the end I decided that it wouldn't really help much and it would just be a pain for everyone to have to follow a link off the site (got to keep those pageviews up for Blez!). Besides being an absurd and unpredictable guessing game (except for nevermoor, who somehow knows all the answers), I find the GOG to be an fun way to preview a series -- who is hot and who is slumping, what are the interesting pitching match-ups, and should Billy in fact FIRE GEREN NOW! If you play along, you'll probably learn a bit about players on other teams and the weird statistical flukes that make every season unique. Ok, time to get started.

GOG 2011 #00 -- I know exactly what will happen this season. Do you?

The first GOG is a bit different from all the ones that will follow. This is your chance to make predictions about the whole 2011 season. It's one thing to post your expectations for the AL West as a comment on some DLD where no one will ever see it after a this week, but here your guess will not only be remembered, it will also be graded at the end of September. So pick well!

Guess Oakland's regular season record for 2011. [5 points if exactly right, 4 points if within one win, etc]
Predict the final AL West rankings (not the win totals for every team, just the order of finishing). [3 points for each team in the correct position]
Now do the same for all the divisions that we don't care about [2 points for each team in the correct position]
Name the Wild Card teams from the AL and NL. [3 points for each right]
Which pitcher and which position player are the A's season leaders for (fangraphs) WAR? [3 points for each correct]
Which A's player (pitcher or position player) has the highest cumulative Win Probability Added (WPA)? [3 points if correct]
Who is the home run leader for the A's? How many home runs does that player hit? [3 points if you get the player right. 3 points if you get the number of HR exactly, 2 points if within one, etc]
How many sacrifice bunts from Daric Barton? [3 points if exactly right, 2 points if within one, etc]
How many games does Suzuki start at catcher? [3 points if exactly right, 2 points if within two, etc]
Does Trevor Cahill put up an ERA under 3.50? How about a FIP under 4.00? [2 points for each right]
New guys part 1 -- Who has more relief appearances, Fuentes or Balfour? Who has more strikeouts? [2 points for each right]
New guys part 2 -- Who finishes highest in each of the Triple Crown categories (batting average, home runs, runs batted in), Matsui, DeJesus, or Willingham? [2 points for each right]
How many games does Chris Carter play in the Majors? [4 points if you get it exactly right, 3 points if within two, etc]
The Billy Beane Special -- Name one player who starts out on the 25 man roster but gets traded mid-season. You are allowed to guess "no one". [3 points if correct]
Last year, Oakland finished fifth in the Majors with a team UZR of +38.9 (behind Cincinnati, San Diego, SF, and Arizona). Will they crack the top 8 this year? [2 points if right]
Know your enemies part 1 -- Coming off an MVP season, how many RBIs does Josh Hamilton rack up in 2011? [3 points if exactly right, 2 points if within four, etc]
Know your enemies part 2 -- Does Felix Hernandez continue to strike out more than three times as many hitters as he walks? (his K/BB was 3.31 in 2010) Does his rate of home runs allowed per 9 innings remain below 0.75? (it was 0.61 in 2010) [2 points for each right]
Know your enemies part 3 -- In his first season as a DH, predict Bobby Abreu's totals for home runs, walks, and stolen bases. His 2010 totals were 20 HR, 87 BB, and 24 SB. [For HR and SB, it is 3 points for getting the answer exactly, 2 points if within one, etc. For BB, it is 3 points for getting the answer exactly, 2 points if within four, etc]
Who is Oakland's representative to the 2011 All Star Game? [0 points because that game is pointless]

This GOG is longer and worth more points that a typical one, because it covers the entire season. So don't miss out! Submit your answers before the A's take the field against the Mariners on Friday night. And be on the lookout for GOG #01, which will cover that series.

GOG #32 - Red Sox at Oakland - UPDATED with answers

colin — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 03:24:23 -0000

Hey, it's my first GOG since 2009. I'm counting on the A's to make it a good one!

Oakland is in the midst of what passes for a hot streak this season. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have lost seven of their last ten and have a number of players on the DL that can only be described as “Larry Davis-ish”. There will still be an unacceptable number of Sox fans in the Coliseum, but hopefully they will all be sent home unhappy. Me? I'll be walking the fine line between friendly heckling and getting kicked of the apartment by my girlfriend.

Hey, it's my first GOG since 2009. I'm counting on the A's to make it a good one!

GOG #32 -- GOGging with the Enemy (37 points possible)

Boston at Oakland -- July 19, 20, 21

...and now we have the answers, courtesy of paris7

Series outcome [3 points] // 2-1 Oakland
The A's have won 12 of the last 18, dating back to the start of the series against Pittsburgh. Over this stretch, they have averaged 5.5 runs scored per game (compared to an average of only 4.2 runs per game for the season as a whole). Does Oakland score a total of 15 or more runs in the three game series against Boston? [1 point] 12 runs for Oakland (so they didn't score 15 or more)
After a rehab start in Stockton, Dallas Braden is scheduled to be back pitching for Oakland on Tuesday. Predict his IP/K/ER [2 points each] 4.2 IP, 6 K, 1 ER
Clay Buchholz is also making his first start back from the DL. Does he last at least 6 innings? Does he strike out at least 4 Athletics? Does he give up a HR? [1 point each] no, no, yes (Watson and Cust)
Cust has homered in three out of his last four games, which is a welcome change from two HR in his first 42. Does he go deep in the series? How many games does he start at DH? How many times does he reach base in the series? [1/2/3 points for parts 1/2/3] yes (1 HR), 3 starts at DH, 6 times on base
Marco had a career year in 2009 by cutting way down on the number of swings he took and walking at a greatly increased rate. This year, his swing rate has come back up, driven by an increase in swings at pitches out of the strike zone. You might think this would lead to more strikeouts, but Scutaro is swinging and missing at fewer pitches than ever (1.9% swinging strikes), at striking out at nearly the lowest rate of his career (11.9% K's). How many swinging strikes for Scutaro in the series? Does he strike out more than once? [3 points for part A, 1 point for part B] only 1 swinging strike, more than one K (2 Ks)
Kurt Suzuki owns a career .930 OPS against the Red Sox. Predict his PA/H/XBH for the series [2 points each] 14 PA, 3 H, 0 XBH
Now that they are back at the .500 mark, the total Win Probability Added for the whole team should add up to exactly zero. It will surprise no one to hear that the A's have done this with a large positive WPA contribution from their pitchers (+4.641 wins) and an equally large negative contribution from their hitters (-4.641... natch). In this series, to the A's hitters or pitchers perform better by WPA? [2 points] pitchers contribute +0.893, hitters contribute -0.393, so pitchers are (much) better
Daniel Nava has provided critical reinforcement for the injured Boston outfield. Unfortunately, his solid .294/.381/.471 batting line is being held afloat almost entirely by a ridiculous .407 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). Seriously, no one can hit .300 over the long run while striking out almost 30% of the time. How many balls does Nava put in play during the series? How many of those fall in for hits? [2 points each] 3 balls in play, 1 hit
Which of the three games is the lowest scoring? Which is the highest scoring? [1 point each] lowest scoring = game 1, highest scoring = game 3

Go Oakland!

Shutdowns and Meltdowns

colin — Wed, 12 May 2010 13:33:46 -0000

Over at fangraphs, they recently proposed a fun statistic for keeping track of relief pitcher performances: shutdowns and meltdowns (actually, the idea was first proposed by tangotiger on The Book blog, but I'm going with the fangraphs version of the stat). We saw the full range of reliever performances last night, so I figured it would be a good opportunity to try it out.

The basic idea is to come up with something that serves the same purpose as saves and holds, but isn't so stupid. I don't think it is controversial, even among statistical traditionalists, to point out that a closer who comes in for the ninth inning with a three run lead and manages to convert the save isn't all that impressive. Or that the tensest moment in a game might come in the seventh inning, with a one run lead, the bases loaded, and one out. In that situation, a strikeout or double play ground ball can swing the entire game.

The shutdowns/meltdowns stat uses Win Probability Added (WPA) to quantify each relief pitcher's effect on the game. Win Probability is exactly what it sounds like -- just use the historical record of baseball games to calculate the probability of a team to win the game, given the base/out state. For example, at the start of the 4th inning yesterday, with zero outs and the Rangers up 1-0, the A's Win Probability was 38.3%. Then, Cliff Pennington grounded out to the pitcher and that probability fell to 35.4%, as precious opportunities slipped away. It's important to note that not all plate appearances are treated equally by Win Probability. The out that Pennington made to start the 4th reduced Oakland's chances by 2.9% but Ryan Sweeney's strickout to end the inning was only cost 1.4%. This leads us to Leverage Index (LI). The LI for a plate appearance is a measure of how important that PA is, relative to an average situation. Pennington's out hurt more because the Leverage Index is higher at the start of an inning than later on in the inning (because it is easier to start a rally if there are few outs). Of course, the real fun with Leverage Index comes in the late innings of close games, where the game result hinges on individual at-bats.

More discussion of WPA can be found here or here. In the AN stats primer, danmerqury describes it as:

A statistic that sums up a player's contributions to winning a single game. For example, before a batter's plate appearance, the chances of his team winning the game are calculated, and subtracted from the chances of winning after the batter's plate appearance. This change can be added up for one game or a whole season.

(Actually, I feel like I'm sort of invading danmerqury's territory with this whole fANpost).

Ok, after all that introduction, let's get to the fun part. A shutdown is defined as any relief appearance where the pitcher contributes positive Win Probability of at least 6%. A meltdown is defined as whenever the relief pitcher contributes Win Probability less than -6%. Six percent doesn't sound like a whole lot, but it was chosen so that the total number of shutdowns in the league over the past few years would more or less match the total number of saves plus holds.

More discussion of WPA can be found here or here. In the AN stats primer, danmerqury describes it as:

A statistic that sums up a player's contributions to winning a single game. For example, before a batter's plate appearance, the chances of his team winning the game are calculated, and subtracted from the chances of winning after the batter's plate appearance. This change can be added up for one game or a whole season.

(Actually, I feel like I'm sort of invading danmerqury's territory with this whole fANpost).

Ok, now let's get to last night's game. I'll just go through the relief pitchers one-by-one to identify the best and worst performances.

Jerry Blevins -- Blevins was brought in with two outs and nobody on in the sixth inning and the score tied 2-2. He got David Murphy to fly out, ending the inning and tallying 1.8% of Win Probability. Blevins remained in the game to start the seventh inning. At this point, the A's had a 3-2 lead thanks to a Patterson triple(!!). With a small lead in the late innings, Blevins Leverage Index was up to 1.91, so the situation is almost twice as important as an average one. Blevins did not help the situation by walking Smoak to lead off the inning. However, the Rangers sacrifice bunted (this play improved the A's Win Probability by 3.7% -- most sac bunts are counter productive!) and then hit into a fielder's choice, with Smoak out at third. At this point, Blevins was lifted so that Ziegler could face Andrus. Jerry's final line was 1.0 IP without allowing a run, but leaving a baserunner on first with two outs. In a close game, that makes for a total Win Probability contribution of 7.8% = SHUTDOWN (but a borderline one)
Brad Ziegler -- Ziggy came in to face Andrus, but the seventh inning ended abruptly when Borbon was caught stealing. Win Probability doesn't assign contributions to defenders, so Brad gets the credit for that one. Things didn't go so smoothly in the eighth inning, though, as Ziegler hit Michael Young with a pitch and then gave up a home run to Josh Hamilton. Hamilton's HR swung the Win Probability by 51.6%, as Oakland went from a 1 run lead to a 1 run deficit. Ziggy was pulled after giving up a double to Kinsler, leaving the game with a blown save and Win Probability contribution of -47.2% = MELTDOWN
Darren Oliver -- Meanwhile, on the Rangers side, Darren Oliver pitched a perfect top of the 8th but then ran into trouble in the 9th. With a 1 run Texas lead, Chavez led off the inning by reaching on an error from Andrus (but Win Probability assigns the blame to the pitcher) and then Rosales singled, advancing Chavez to 3rd but was thrown out trying to get to second. Oliver was pulled with 1 out in the ninth, runner on third, and his team hanging on to a 1 run lead (this adds up to an edge of your seat Leverage Index of 4.42). His Win Probability Added was -9.2% = MELTDOWN
Neftali Feliz -- Feliz came in for Oliver and promptly hit a batter (Fox), then gave up three singles in a row. Over the span of four batters, the Rangers 1 run lead turned into a 1 run deficit. Feliz finished the inning, but his WPA was a ugly -45.5% = MELTDOWN
Craig Breslow -- Breslow only faced one batter, getting David Murphy to fly out to end the eighth. There was a runner on second at the time, but this still only changed the Win Probability by 2.5%, so Breslow doesn't earn a shutdown.
Andrew Bailey -- Bailey was brought in for the classic closer situation -- bottom of the ninth with a one run lead. And he blew it, walking Smoak to start the inning and eventually allowing him to score on an Andrus single. It could have been worse -- the Rangers could have gotten a walk-off win -- but Bailey's WPA of -28.1% was clearly a MELTDOWN
Frank Francisco, Michael Wuertz -- The score remained tied at 5-5, as neither team scored in the 10th inning. Francisco allowed a couple of baserunners, but got out of the jam. These pitching situations with little margin of error are what shutdowns/meltdowns were created for, and both pitchers succeeded to the tune of +14.9% Win Probability = SHUTDOWN
Chris Ray -- This is what happens in extra inning games: all of your good relief pitchers have already been used, so you throw Chris Ray and his 6.51 xFIP into a high leverage situation and he gives up a HR to Daric "I made 5 outs but still had a WPA of .584" Barton. Ray's WPA was -28.1% = MELTDOWN
Tyson Ross -- Ross came in for the bottom of the 11th with a one run lead and gave it up on an RBI single from Julio Borbon, resulting in yet another blown save for Oakland. The A's had a 78.1% Win Probability at the start of the inning, but that fell to 50% by the end. This would have been a big old meltdown for Ross, but Geren was running out of relief pitchers, so Tyson stayed in for the 12th and 13th innings. He didn't allow any further runs to score, and Daric Barton came through with the game winning RBI. So the finally WPA tally for Ross was +8.7% = SHUTDOWN
Darren O'Day -- Scoreless top of the 12th, +14.9% WPA = SHUTDOWN
Dustin Nippert -- Gave up the winning run in the top of the 13th, -28.1% WPA = MELTDOWN

So there you have it -- one game, five shutdowns and six meltdowns, and the A's are tied for first! Just to wrap this up, let's take a look at the shutdowns and meltdowns for the Oakland bullpen so far this season (all stats available at fangraphs). The WPA column gives the total Win Probability contributed by each pitcher over all of their appearances. The gmLI column is the average Leverage Index for when the pitcher is brought into a game (i.e. the A's are in a sticky situation, so Geren turns to Michael Wuertz).

Name	Games	WPA	gmLI	Shutdowns	Meltdowns
Tyson Ross	11	0.48	1.13	4	2
Jerry Blevins	14	0.26	1.00	3	1
Michael Wuertz	3	0.17	2.08	1	0
Andrew Bailey	13	0.17	1.47	6	2
Edwar Ramirez	6	0.11	0.62	1	1
Brad Kilby	5	0.00	0.06	0	0
Chad Gaudin	10	-0.15	0.90	2	2
Craig Breslow	14	-0.45	1.03	1	4

Poll

How about Geren's bullpen management?

He is the leverage master!

10 votes

The Oakland bullpen would make anyone look good.

42 votes

Breslow is giving me ulcers!

22 votes

74 votes | Poll has closed

Praise for Anderson on Fangraphs Audio

colin — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 21:07:05 -0000

Praise for Anderson on Fangraphs Audio

Dave Cameron says that, taking their contracts into account, he would trade Felix straight up for Brett Anderson. (I'm pretty sure this was recorded before he signed his contract with the A's, though.)

DLD 3/4/10 -- Dumping Hella Links

colin — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 07:12:12 -0000

The International System of Units (SI) needs a new prefix to denote 10^27 (right now it only goes up to yotta, for 10^24). A physics student at Davis has proposed a term that I am totally in favor of.

Austin Sendek, a physics student at UC Davis, wants the number of 10 to the 27th power -- a trillion trillions -- to officially become "hella" big.

So how much of something do you need to become hella? Well, suppose that Jack Cust continues to rack up STRICKOUTS at his 2010 pace of 185 per year. But now, instead of 185 STRICKOUTS per year, let's make it 185 per second. At that phenomenal rate, it would still take Cust 12.5 million times the current age of the universe to accumulate a hellawhiff. On the other hand, Jack will probably reach a kilowhiff sometime early in the 2012 season.

Austin Sendek, a physics student at UC Davis, wants the number of 10 to the 27th power -- a trillion trillions -- to officially become "hella" big.

But this DLD isn't just about big numbers and the metric system. Let's move on to the Northern California roots of the word. From the Urban Dictionary, which is probably not iglew approved, we have the following definition.

Hella. Originated from the streets of San Francisco in the Hunters Point neighborhood. It is commonly used in place of "really" or "very" when describing something.
The Fillmore is hella better than the Mission.
Thank God LA is hella far away.

I can definitely sympathize with that last sentence.

I've also got some music for you all. Not that No Doubt song, it's Sacramento's finest hyperkinetic spazz rock duo, appropriately known as Hella. This video (sorry about the weird sepia camera effect) is of their song "Republic of Rough and Ready", performed live at Bottom of the Hill back in 2003. You can find audio of the whole set on the Internet Archive.

And finally, while my current RAF status isn't going to last for very long, there will always be a little part of me back in the Coliseum because...

"The diameter of the universe is 1.4 hellameters," Sendek said. "You know if someone says that's 'hella meters' you know exactly what they're talking about."

Poll

Opening day of the season is 32 days away. I find that to be...

hella rad!

69 votes

hella lame!

8 votes

You just sound like an idiot.

18 votes

95 votes | Poll has closed

Dave Cameron is bullish on Pennington

colin — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 18:00:43 -0000

Dave Cameron is bullish on Pennington

Dave Cameron (of USS Mariner and fangraphs fame) writes about Pennington: "If he can show enough glove to stick at shortstop, he’s one of the better young players in the game at the position."

This is very different from the majority of opinions on AN (including mine). But Dave Cameron really knows his stuff, so we can hope that he's right.

Brett Anderson is on twitter

colin — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 23:15:11 -0000

Brett Anderson is on twitter

Discover fascinating insights into his pitching ability! Like "Bored going to see avatar."

GOG 2009 Final Results

colin — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 14:51:24 -0000

It is time to wrap up the whole 2009 season, and the GOG along with it. This fANpost way freaking long. Scroll down to find answers and scores for GOG #00, an overview of the whole 2009 GOG, the final season standings, and awards.

GOG #00 Answers

It's a pretty tough thing to predict how a baseball season will unfold. Back in the those happy days of late March, most of us here at AN were in an optimistic mood. Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi were going to team up with Cust to provide some serious punch in the middle of the order, Orlando Cabrera was going to boost our shortstop production well above replacement level, and Justin Duchscherer would return quickly from his DL stint to provide All Star caliber starting pitching. Heck, some people were even expecting big things from Nomar.

Of course, that all turned out to be a fantasy, as the A's season quickly headed south. By the start of June, it seemed likely that 2009 would go down as the worst season of the decade. And, well, it was, but only just barely (we also won 75 last year, but that was with only 151 games played). The late season surge in offense, led improbably by Rajai Davis, along with fantastic rookie performances from Anderson and Bailey, kept the season interesting and leaves me in a hopeful mood for this offseason.

But, getting back to the GOG, all that recap should just serve to remind you that none of us saw the events of this season coming, so don't be too shocked by how far off your predictions were. Also, many many thanks to micdog2001, who looked up most of these answers for me.

Predict Oakland's 2009 record [3 points] -- The AN consensus on this one is summed up in a plot that I put together back in May. Oakland finished with a record of 75-87, which is one game worse than the lowest win total anyone guessed (that would be ANti-dentite). It's hard to accurately guess a season win total, so I gave partial credit here: 3 points for being exactly right, 2 points if you were off by one game, 1 point if you were off by two games.
Predict the AL West final standings [+1 for each correct, -1 for each incorrect] -- The final AL West standings have the Angels in first, Rangers in second, Mariners in third, and the lowly A's in fourth place. No one managed to predict this one perfectly, but people get two points for each team in the correct position. The community consensus is summed up in this plot.
Which team (AL or NL) finishes with the best record? How many games do they win? [3 points each] -- The Yankees with 103 wins. As with question 1, I gave partial credit for people's predictions of the season win total.
Name the AL and NL wild card teams [3 points each] -- Boston in the AL, Colorado in the NL
Which team (AL or NL) is most improved from their 2008 record? Which team declines the most from 2008? [3 points each] -- Most improved team was the Mariners, who finished with 24 more wins than they had in 2008 (honorable mentions to the Rockies and Giants, but it really wasn't close). The team that had the biggest decline was the Mets, who have 19 fewer wins than their 2008 total (honorable mentions to the Indians and Cubs).
Which AL teams will the A's have the best and worst win percentage against? [3 points each] -- The A's fared best against the Orioles, with a 5-1 record, and worst against the Yankees, going 2-7.
Does it really have to count? :: Which league wins the All Star Game? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] -- The AL wins the All Star Game... again.
The Real Greatest Rivalry :: Predict the result of the Oakland-LAAA season series (19 games total) [3 points] -- This one was close for most of the season, but then the Angels swept us away right at the end. The final tally is 7 wins for Oakland, 12 for LAAAAAA.
The Future of the West :: Which minor league system has a better W/L record - Texas or Oakland? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] -- For this question, I didn't count Arizona Fall League teams, Dominican Summer Leagues, rookie leagues, etc. For the Oakland system, I summed up the records for Vancouver, Kane County, Stockton, Midland, and Sacramento, for a combined record of 234-195 (0.545). In the Texas system, we have Spokane, Hickory, Bakersfield, Frisco, and Oklahoma City, who all combined for a 216-214 record (0.502). So the advantage here goes to the Oakland system!
Does the A's W-L record beat their Pythagorean record? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] -- The Athletics score 759 runs and allowed 761, which puts them at an even 81-81 for their Pythagorean record. So yeah, they underperformed by six games (which I believe is just one standard deviation, before people start flipping out).
Who will lead the 2009 A's in stolen bases? [3 points] -- That would be Rajai.
Being in the Right Place at the Right Time :: Who will lead the A's this season in WPA? [3 points] -- The A's 2009 leader in WPA was Michael Wuertz with +3.05 wins, who earned it by striking out hitter after hitter in close and late situations. For position players, the leader was Rajai Davis with +2.73 wins. Nobody guessed either of those two.
The Starting Rotation :: Who logs the most innings pitched for the 2009 A's? Which A's pitcher with at least 100 IP has the best ERA for the season? [3 points each] -- Most innings pitched was by Trevor Cahill with 178.2 innings pitched (chalk this up in the category of “reasons why Oakland didn't contend in 2009”), but Brett Anderson was right behind him with 175.1. The best ERA among pitchers with at least 100 innings was Dallas Braden, who posted a 3.89.
Injuries, Death, and Taxes :: How many times do the A's use the DL this season? [3 points] -- According to this article by Byg Urb, the A's used the DL 17 times. I tried to count them all up myself and got only the following 16 (in roughly chronological order): Duchscherer, Nomar, Ellis, Devine, Chavez, Casilla, Giese, Nomar again, Sweeney, Outman, Giambi, Barton, Braden, Crosby, Mazzaro, plus the strange business with Ben Copeland (taken in the Rule 5 draft despite being injured at the time, stashed on the Oakland DL, then called up for a cup of coffee once he got healthy, and quickly returned to the Giants). So I gave people credit if they answered either 16 or 17.
The Ringer :: Will Matt Holliday still be in an Oakland uniform at the end of the season? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] -- Nope, but I am amazed at how many people answered yes to this question. We were really being optimistic at the start of this season, eh?
Giambi's return :: Predict Jason's season totals for AB/BB/HR [2 points each] -- Giambi's line with Oakland was 269 AB, 50 BB, and 11 HR. I gave people credit for being within 20 AB, 5 H, or 1 HR of the correct answers.
Nooo-mah! :: Predict his AB/H/RBI [2 points each] -- Nomar had 160 AB, 45 H, and 16 RBI. Here, the acceptable margins of error were 15 AB, 5 H, and 2 RBI.
Someone not named Crosby :: How many games will Cabrera start at SS? [3 points] -- I didn't really specify whether I would be counting just the games he played for Oakland. So I gave credit for either his 100 games started as an Athletic or his 157 total starts. But nobody guessed either of those.
How many games will Duchscherer start this season? [3 points] -- We all know how this one turned out.
Who earns more saves this season, Devine or Ziegler? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] -- Ziegler wins this one with his seven saves. I should have included an “other” category...
The MAC Question :: How many Major League innings to Anderson, Cahill, and Mazarro combine to pitch in 2009? [3 points] -- Those three pitchers combined for a whopping 445.1 innings pitched, with Cahill and Anderson as the top two workhorses of the staff. This is a problem. Unsurprisingly, no one was especially close on this question, so I gave credit to anyone who guessed 400 or more.

GOG #00 Results

There are big points on the line for this one. Plus, when I tally the final season scores, GOG #00 is going to count double. So hold on to your hats...

maximum score = 75 points
minimum score = -9 points
mean = 9.807 points
standard deviation = 5.986 points
median = 10 points
mode = 15 points

Congratulations to Kyli, the grand prognosticator of the 2009 season! Of course, Kyli went on to not enter into any of the other GOG so we are left considering what might have been...

Rank	Name	Score	Rank	Name	Score
1	Kyli	22	30	easyraider	9
2	Flashfire	21		FormerHuntsvilleStar	9
	roscoe	21		nevermoor	9
	doctorK	21		JLeverenz	9
5	train80	20		robertmelvin	9
6	xbhaskarx	19	35	ZeroIndulgence	8
7	FoolshGame22	18	36	SoCal As Fan	7
8	micdog2001	16		oblique	7
	NateHST	16		GoAs	7
10	OaktownPower	15		streetfan	7
	A'sfaninNC	15	40	vegAN ryAN	6
	A'sBowlingLeague	15	41	gigglingone	5
	travdog6	15		EddieVegas_NRAF	5
	WaddellCanseco	15		Zonis	5
	geogrman	15	44	KMoAsFan	4
16	j_rich36	13		Boonee	4
	King Richard	13		tanghamilton	4
18	designatedforassignment	12		JPShark	4
	RayJEdd	12		sprtsnwyn	4
	zaniac75	12	49	swatnick	3
	Kimberly	12		Cutthemullet	3
	mikeA	12		Mantecan As Fan	3
23	Angry Sean	11	52	MaineAthletic	2
	crb29	11		elephantbaseball	2
	ANti-dentite	11	54	captain flitzy	1
	Gallagher's Watermelons	11	55	scatterbrian	0
27	DCinWC	10		colin	0
	SLOtown	10	57	tresselfan	-1
	redtopcowboy	10

GOG Season Recap

With that old business out of the way, let's take a look at some more numbers!

Total number of people who posted an entry for at least one GOG = 111
Total number of entries posted, including GOG #00 = 1280
Total number of points awarded, including GOG #00 = 8752
Average score, not including GOG #00 = 6.2420 points

And here is a histogram of every score this season (except GOG #00). It looks pretty nice and Gaussian, if you ask me. Also, in case people are curious, that bin on the very far left is Athletics fan and runner, from GOG #04. The bin on the far right is muffinpryde, from GOG #43.

Next up, let's take a look at everyone's GOG batting average (hey, if I call it GOG+ or wGOG, can I sit with the cool kids at the stats table?). This is defined for each person by taking their total points for the whole season and dividing it by the maximum number of points possible for the GOGs that person actually entered. So, if you're doctorK that would mean all the points, but it's less for everyone else.

The black histogram below is for everyone, even the people who only posted entries for one GOG. The red, green, and blue histograms count only people who participated in at least 10, 20, or 30 GOGs, respectively. Historically, the requirement to be in the running for the AVG title is to participate in at least one third of the GOGs, which translates to 17 entries for the whole season. Also, as you can see from that dashed line, we aren't exactly a whole bunch of Tony Gwynns around here.

GOG Final Standings

Ok, here is the moment you've all been waiting for (unless you just scrolled straight down here!). The final standings for the 2009 GOG...

Rank by total score	Name	Total score	Number of GOG entries	Rank by AVG	Final AVG	Number of GOG wins
1	nevermoor	392	48	1	0.234	9
2	zaniac75	384	51	5	0.218	5
3	A'sfaninNC	320	40	3	0.227	2
4	micdog2001	317	44	7	0.206	4
5	Rated-R Superstar	316	46	6	0.216	3
6	doctorK	312	53	18	0.171	4
7	colin	281	51	24	0.160	4
8	Angry Sean	270	47	21	0.164	4
9	swatnick	258	31	2	0.232	1
10	mikeA	256	32	4	0.218	1
11	muffinpryde	247	43	17	0.177	3
12	train80	246	36	11	0.190	2
13	GoAs	240	36	14	0.183	1
14	JLeverenz	232	34	9	0.192	1
15	oblique	231	39	19	0.167	1
	streetfan	231	48	26	0.137	5
17	roscoe	203	30	15	0.183	1
18	adragon	167	32	23	0.161	1
19	easyraider	161	22	10	0.190	3
20	Kimberly	155	22	13	0.184	0
21	NateHST	144	16	N/E	0.223	0
22	OaktownPower	140	17	8	0.201	2
23	ZeroIndulgence	132	21	22	0.163	0
24	elephantbaseball	130	20	20	0.167	0
25	RayJEdd	128	13	N/E	0.227	1
26	gigglingone	127	17	12	0.189	2
27	Blicks	126	21	16	0.183	2
	harenshair	126	15	N/E	0.249	2
29	SoCal As Fan	107	15	N/E	0.174	0
30	diehardoaklandfan22	106	16	N/E	0.202	0
	FormerHuntsvilleStar	106	12	N/E	0.212	4
32	DCinWC	104	17	25	0.152	0
33	crb29	92	12	N/E	0.181	2
34	SLOtown	80	11	N/E	0.162	0
35	stranahanahan	78	16	N/E	0.159	2
36	MaineAthletic	77	13	N/E	0.142	0
37	whiteshoes40	68	18	27	0.116	0
38	pam5981	59	7	N/E	0.276	0
	Athletix Man	59	9	N/E	0.199	0
	robertmelvin	59	7	N/E	0.160	0
41	WaddellCanseco	58	6	N/E	0.181	0
42	jpl	55	8	N/E	0.222	0
43	baseballnut020	51	9	N/E	0.173	0
44	A'sBowlingLeague	49	3	N/E	0.215	0
45	Flashfire	48	2	N/E	0.250	0
46	jay_sensei	44	6	N/E	0.227	0
	Kyli	44	1	N/E	0.293	1
48	Future Ed	41	6	N/E	0.197	0
49	designatedforassignment	40	4	N/E	0.154	0
50	nateh37	39	7	N/E	0.174	0
	vegAN ryAN	39	5	N/E	0.132	0
	King Richard	39	3	N/E	0.182	0
53	xbhaskarx	38	1	N/E	0.253	0
54	FoolshGame22	36	1	N/E	0.240	0
55	Helloooo 1st	34	6	N/E	0.165	0
56	j_rich36	33	2	N/E	0.172	0
57	VORP is too nerdy	32	4	N/E	0.234	0
	Gallagher's Watermelons	32	2	N/E	0.167	0
59	fruitattack	31	12	N/E	0.079	0
	travdog6	31	3	N/E	0.136	0
61	jasonthea	30	4	N/E	0.219	0
	Cutthemullet	30	4	N/E	0.120	0
	geogrman	30	1	N/E	0.200	0
64	tosk	29	5	N/E	0.179	0
65	KMoAsFan	28	5	N/E	0.095	0
66	Athletics fan and runner	27	6	N/E	0.133	0
	Boonee	27	4	N/E	0.104	0
68	dtownmbrown	25	4	N/E	0.182	0
	sprtsnwyn	25	3	N/E	0.115	0
70	eastcoasta'sfan	23	4	N/E	0.161	0
71	ANti-dentite	22	1	N/E	0.147	0
72	redtopcowboy	20	1	N/E	0.133	0
73	SamYam	19	3	N/E	0.186	0
	mikev	19	2	N/E	0.292	0
75	ElQuesoCapitan	18	3	N/E	0.194	0
	jeffro	18	4	N/E	0.150	0
	anomaly_kat	18	3	N/E	0.173	0
78	robbo650	17	4	N/E	0.132	0
	Oaktownflav	17	3	N/E	0.156	0
80	Gaijin_Suketto	14	1	N/E	0.424	0
	brian.only	14	4	N/E	0.096	0
82	ChadGod	13	1	N/E	0.382	0
	spiffyjwc	13	2	N/E	0.194	0
84	baseballgirl	10	1	N/E	0.286	0
	stabbin_mcadams	10	1	N/E	0.312	0
	Nico	10	1	N/E	0.278	0
	Zonis	10	1	N/E	0.067	0
88	JLopez	9	4	N/E	0.069	0
	chillicothe20	9	1	N/E	0.265	0
	samljm	9	1	N/E	0.265	0
	Walton711	9	1	N/E	0.214	0
	EddieVegas_NRAF	9	2	N/E	0.048	0
93	asyouwish33	8	1	N/E	0.250	0
	JediLeroy	8	1	N/E	0.222	0
	GreenOctober69	8	1	N/E	0.190	0
	tanghamilton	8	1	N/E	0.053	0
	JPShark	8	1	N/E	0.053	0
98	walkoff baltimore chop	7	1	N/E	0.200	0
	Mantecan As Fan	7	2	N/E	0.036	0
100	Dalesman	6	2	N/E	0.083	0
101	OptimistPrime	5	1	N/E	0.179	0
	tresselfan	5	5	N/E	0.017	0
103	JLaff	4	1	N/E	0.111	0
104	cuppingmaster	3	1	N/E	0.094	0
	Trainman	3	2	N/E	0.049	0
	Holy Toledo!	3	1	N/E	0.083	0
	scutaroknowstheway	3	1	N/E	0.071	0
108	captain flitzy	2	1	N/E	0.013	0
109	Steve in Napa	1	1	N/E	0.032	0
	Leopold Bloom	1	1	N/E	0.029	0
111	scatterbrian	0	1	N/E	0.000	0

Ok, anyone who has been watching the GOG standings during the season had a pretty good idea of who the top two would be. Congratulations to the 2009 GOG champion, nevermoor! But let's not forget zaniac75, who kept things exciting the whole way (and was in the lead for most of the first half). I thought that the double point potential of GOG #00 could have closed the gap, but these two were just way ahead of everyone else.

Actually, nevermoor wins the whole triple crown here. For most of the season, swatnick had command of the AVG category, but a poor showing on GOG #00 handed that one to nevermoor. Finally, I added a third category, in the far right hand column, that keeps track of the number of times a player won the GOG (you get the point whether or not your are tied for first). In this category as well, nevermoor is looking pretty dominant.

And here is one more plot for you all -- the final top 10, tracked across the whole 2009 GOG season.

GOG Awards

Before we get to the end of season awards, I want to thank the people who helped me keep up with the GOG this season. That would be nevermoor, who wrote a couple of them himself when I was on vacation, and doctorK and micdog2001, who looked up all the answers for me several times when I fell behind on grading. I thought this was a fun way to follow the A's season (particularly in a year when we needed some distraction from their record). Next year? We'll see...

The Jimmie Foxx Award for Domination goes to nevermoor, of course. I said enough about his record above.
The Campy Campaneris Award for Perfect Attendance goes to doctorK. I don't know what inspires such dedication to the GOG, but I appreciate it.
The Rich Harden Award for Domination in a Small Sample goes to FormerHuntsvilleStar. I didn't have the win count statistic before, so I hadn't noticed this, but FHS posted entries for only 12 GOG, but managed to win 4 of those!
The ??? Award for a Promising Career Over Too Soon goes to mikeA, who managed to hang on to a spot in the top ten even though he stopped playing around GOG #35. When he dropped out, the race for the title went from three players to just two. (I can't think of an Athletic to name this award after -- Duchscherer maybe? It's still too soon to tell with him.)

Ok, that's it. It's high time for me to stop spending so much time on baseball-reference and fangraphs. Enjoy the offseason!

DLD 10/15/09 - The Decline of AN Civilization

colin — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 16:28:16 -0000

Because not having a DLD is barbaric...

Actually, the title references Penelope Spheeris' 1981 documentary about the Los Angeles punk scene. This was on my mind because of the death of Brendan Mullen earlier this week. Mullen founded The Masque, a club and rehearsal space in Hollywood that was the center of the first wave of LA punk bands. This is a link dump, so I will pass along a selection of the finest bands to come from the Masque scene.

The Germs -- Lexicon Devil (live footage)
The Alley Cats -- Nothing Means Nothing Anymore (live footage)
The Bags -- Babylonian Gorgon (sorry, it's just audio, but the fact that this is like the best song ever should partially make up for it)
The Middle Class -- Home Is Where (again, no video)
The Weirdos -- We Got the Neutron Bomb (live footage)

But it's good to have some baseball links as well...

The Hardball Times takes a look at some top prospects who played in the Southern and Texas leagues this last year. I'll let you guess who they are describing with this quote: "his power was every bit as devastating as advertised".
Also from Hardball Times, a thorough look at the Venezuelan Patrol Craft. A friend of mine, who is a Rockies fan, is pretty unhappy with Oakland right now, on account of Huston Street's meltdown, but he really can't say anything bad about another part of the Holliday deal.

Dump away!

Because not having a DLD is barbaric...

The Germs -- Lexicon Devil (live footage)
The Alley Cats -- Nothing Means Nothing Anymore (live footage)
The Bags -- Babylonian Gorgon (sorry, it's just audio, but the fact that this is like the best song ever should partially make up for it)
The Middle Class -- Home Is Where (again, no video)
The Weirdos -- We Got the Neutron Bomb (live footage)

But it's good to have some baseball links as well...

The Hardball Times takes a look at some top prospects who played in the Southern and Texas leagues this last year. I'll let you guess who they are describing with this quote: "his power was every bit as devastating as advertised".
Also from Hardball Times, a thorough look at the Venezuelan Patrol Craft. A friend of mine, who is a Rockies fan, is pretty unhappy with Oakland right now, on account of Huston Street's meltdown, but he really can't say anything bad about another part of the Holliday deal.

Dump away!

GOG 2009 #52

colin — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:48:50 -0000

The season is coming to an end and, after yet another sweep at the hands of the Mariners, it just can't come soon enough.

But, before we move on to prospect rankings, hot stoves, or (gasp) subjects other than baseball, there are two small matters left. First, our record against LAAAAAA sits currently at 7-9. They may have the division all wrapped up, but they haven't clinched the season series yet. Now is the time where the Athletics will stand up against their hated rivals, send forth their champions, and fight their way by victory. Of course, when I say champions, I mean Dana Eveland and Edgar Gonzalez, so this might not be as epic as I am hoping for.

The second small matter? Oh yeah, that's the GOG!

Links

Probable pitchers
Angels stats
Based on the poll results in GOG #51, this is going to be the last GOG of 2009. Of course, I'm a bit behind on my grading and the GOG #00 results are still to be tallied, so the race is still wide open (remember that GOG #00 questions count double, so there is a potential for 75 points right there). Anyway, keep your eyes open for a special GOG #00 results fANpost, complete with pretty plots, plus the end of the season recap and final standings!

GOG #52 :: The Very Last One (32 points possible)

Three game series vs Los Angeles Angels -- October 2-4

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 3-0 Angels
This series marks the first time when Scott Kazmir will face the A's as a hated Angel, rather than a lovable Ray. Predict his IP/ER/K [2 points each] 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Dana Eveland's lifetime ERA against the Angels currently sits at a hellish 6.66 (19 ER in 25 and two-thirds). Does he improve that mark in his Saturday start, or does he decline further into pitching purgatory? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Dana allowed 4 ER in 4.2 innings, so he actually managed to increase his ERA vs the Angels to 6.82
In (hopefully) his last series as an Athletics, predict Bobby Crosby's AB/H/RBI [2 points each] 5 AB, 2 H, 0 RBI
Chone Figgins has been leading the way for the Angels this season, and leading his own way to a big fat free agent contract, with a spectacular 6.1 Wins Above Replacement. He has been good at everything (well, except for hitting for power), with a .300 batting average, league leading 101 walks, 42 stolen bases, and excellent defense at third base. How many times will Chone reach base against Oakland? [3 points] Figgins reached base only twice
Making a final RoY push, does Andrew Bailey earn a save in the series? Does he allow any earned runs? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] no save, no earned runs (in 2 innings)
For the 2009 season, the A's and Angels have very similar team UZR, both slightly better than average. However, the two teams save their runs in very different ways. The A's have a pretty nice range score, thanks mostly to Rajai Davis, Ryan Sweeney, and Matt Holliday. The Angels outfield of Rivera, Hunter, and Abreu just doesn't have those kind of legs. On the other hand, the A's UZR is cut down by errors and missing double plays, thanks to an infield that has had a heavy dose of Adam Kennedy (often playing out of position at third), Bobby Crosby (ditto), and an uncharacteristicly bad half-season with the glove from Orlando Cabrera. For the series, which team commits more errors? Which team turns more double plays? Which team records more outfield putouts? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Both teams tied, with 1 error apiece. LAAAA turned 7 double plays to Oakland's 3. Oakland outfielders made more putouts, 19 to 15.
In 2008, the three Oakland relievers with the most innings pitched were Street, Embree, and Ziegler, who combined for 191.1 total. With three games left to play, this year's top three (Bailey, Wuertz, and Ziegler) have thrown a whopping 230.1 innings! How many IP for that ace trio in this series? [3 points] 5 innings total (2 for Bailey, 1 for Wuertz, 2 for Ziggy)
Perhaps it is appropriate that the last game of the 2009 season starts with Edgar Gonzalez on the mound. Will he manage to post a game score of at least 50 (which roughly corresponds to a quality start)? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Dropped this question, since Edgar didn't start
Taking a small detour to the one bit of pennant race excitement -- If the Twins win all three of their remaining games (against the Royals) *and* the Tigers lose their three games (against the White Sox), then Minnesota wins the AL Central outright. If the Twins lose one game *or* the Tigers win one, then they will finish in a tie, leading to a one game playoff on Tuesday. Do either of these two scenarios occur? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] yes
Who wins GOG #52, before this question is taken into account? [3 points] zaniac75

The series kicks off with my man Gio on the mound, at 7:05 pm. Don't miss your last chance to GOG!

Results

Well, this was a nice hard one to finish off the season. Don't feel bad if your score was low.

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 1.61538 points
standard deviation = 3.12353 points
mode = 2 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Congratulations to zaniac75 for winning GOG #52. However, nevermoor turned in the next best score, so he's still got a strong grip on first place. Of course, there are a lot of points up for grabs with GOG #00 still to be graded. The suspense is killing me! (but not enough to make me actually, you know, go and grade those results)

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
zaniac75	1	7	50	2	360	5	0.223
nevermoor	2	5	47	1	374	2	0.245
Angry Sean	3	4	46	9	248	20	0.166
easyraider		4	21	19	143	7	0.205
Rated-R Superstar	5	3	46	3	316	6	0.216
micdog2001	6	2	43	5	285	8	0.205
doctorK		2	52	7	270	22	0.161
mikev		2	2	58	19	N/E	0.292
colin	9	0	50	6	281	18	0.175
fruitattack		0	12	48	31	N/E	0.079
streetfan	11	-2	47	13	217	23	0.142
stranahanahan		-2	16	33	78	N/E	0.159
JLeverenz	13	-4	33	15	214	9	0.202
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	96	1	N/E	0.024
swatnick	DNP	--	30	8	252	1	0.263
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	26	112	N/E	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	N/E	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	35	12	226	11	0.195
mikeA	DNP	--	31	11	232	4	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	25	116	16	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	24	117	N/E	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	20	131	12	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	13	217	17	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	N/E	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	96	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	21	126	10	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	27	110	N/E	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	19	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	37	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	34	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	16	206	14	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	38	59	N/E	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	39	4	290	3	0.230
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	100	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	35	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	65	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	62	18	N/E	0.173
muffinpryde	DNP	--	43	10	247	15	0.177
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	65	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	62	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
adragon	DNP	--	32	17	167	21	0.161
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	36	68	24	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	38	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	21	126	N/E	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	96	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	62	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	21	126	13	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	65	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	96	1	N/E	0.032
cuppingmaster	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.094

Miguel Angel Sano signs with Minnesota

colin — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 18:48:23 -0000

Miguel Angel Sano signs with Minnesota

There was a lot of enthusiasm about this guy on AN earlier this year. His signing bonus is the largest ever to a position player from Latin America (except Cuba), but it's not as much as the A's gave to Ynoa.

GOG 2009 #51

colin — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 20:30:53 -0000

The time has come to buckle down! As of right now, the A's have 81 games in the loss column, meaning they need to win out to reach .500 for the season. Unfortunately, the green and gold is up against the Mariners, who have dominated Oakland to the tune of a .313 winning percentage. But those were the "Matt Holliday is a .200 hitter" A's of April, the "we just realized that maybe we should send Dana Eveland to AAA" A's of May, and the "getting rid of some dead weight" A's of August. Now the Mariners are up against the "Rajai Davis is Superman, and Eric Patterson is probably Batman or something" A's of late September, so do they even have a chance?

I've developed a bit of a Pavlovian response to Mariners series this season -- basically I just curl up in a ball for 3-4 games and try not to turn on the tv. So, despite the strong play that we've been seeing lately from Oakland, my highest hopes for the next three days are pretty much just that I don't catch swine flu.

GOG #51 :: The Penultimate (32 points possible)

Three game series @ Seattle Mariners -- September 29-October 1

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 3-0 Seattle
Tuesday is Felix Day! He's leading the Cy Young race for the "AL pitchers not named Zach" category. Predict IP/ER/K for the King [2 points each] 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
With Hairston out, Eric Patterson has started the last six games and put up a batting line of .474/.600/.684 with 3 stolen bases to 1 caught stealing. Can he stay hot against the Mariners? Predict his AB/H/SB [2 points each] 9 AB, 4 H, 0 SB
In his last start at Safeco field, Brett Anderson tossed an easy seven innings, striking out 8 while allowing only one run. How many innings will he last in his upcoming start? [3 points] 5 IP
Kurt Suzuki has been the seventh hardest player to strike out in the AL this season (for some reason this category contains a lot of second basement, with Polanco, Pedroia, and Callaspo in spots 1, 2, and 3). How many times does Zook strike out against Seattle pitching? [3 points] 1 strikeout
Shawn Kelley is suffering from some flyballing tendencies and the large HR rate that goes along with it, but he has struck out 4.88 hitters for every one that he has walked, which puts him fourth among AL pitchers with at least 30 IP (you may have heard of the dudes in the 1 and 2 spots -- Roy Halladay and Mariano Rivera). As Lookout Landing Jeff points out, this is a pretty good skill set for a middle reliever. How many walks and strikeouts for Kelley against the A's? [2 points each] 0 BB, 2 K (in 1 inning pitched)
As a team, Seattle has the lowest walk rate in the American League at 7.2%. What is the Mariners' largest single game walk total in the series? [3 points] Seattle walked twice in game one; they only walked once in each of the other two games
For the series, who posts a higher Batting Average on Balls In Play, Ichiro (currently at .382 for the year) or Rajai (currently at .368)? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Ichiro
How many double plays do the A's hit into (includes the strike out/caught stealing type)? [3 points] Oakland hits into two double plays

Series starts at 7:10 pm. It's Felix day, so we all should just hide in a basement somewhere.

Results

High scores on this one. Will you all keep it up for the very last GOG?

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 7.33333 points
standard deviation = 2.52605 points
mode = 7 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Congratulations to nevermoor for winning GOG 51. Looks like he's not going to let up at the end of the season, so zaniac75 and RRS have their work cut out for them. Also, hey cuppingmaster! Welcome to the GOG!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
nevermoor	1	12	46	1	369	2	0.247
JLeverenz	2	10	32	14	218	7	0.212
streetfan		10	46	13	219	23	0.146
easyraider		10	20	19	139	8	0.209
muffinpryde	5	9	43	9	247	16	0.177
Rated-R Superstar	6	8	45	3	313	6	0.219
swatnick	7	7	30	8	252	1	0.263
micdog2001		7	42	5	283	9	0.208
colin		7	49	6	281	15	0.178
A'sfaninNC		7	39	4	290	3	0.230
stranahanahan	11	6	15	33	80	N/E	0.174
zaniac75	12	5	49	2	353	5	0.223
doctorK		5	51	7	268	21	0.163
GoAs	14	4	35	12	226	11	0.195
cuppingmaster	15	3	1	92	3	N/E	0.094
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	96	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	26	112	N/E	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	N/E	0.158
mikeA	DNP	--	31	11	232	4	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	25	116	17	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	24	117	N/E	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	20	131	12	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	15	217	18	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	N/E	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	96	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	21	126	10	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	27	110	N/E	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	19	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	37	60	N/E	0.174
Angry Sean	DNP	--	45	10	244	20	0.167
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	34	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	16	206	14	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	38	59	N/E	0.199
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	100	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	35	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
adragon	DNP	--	32	17	167	22	0.161
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	36	68	24	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	38	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	21	126	N/E	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	96	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	21	126	13	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	96	1	N/E	0.032

Poll

Should we have GOGs for the postseason series?

No way! I GOG for the A's only!

5 votes

No way! We need to make sure that no one has a chance at catching nevermoor!

2 votes

Yes, one each for the division series, championship series, and world series

2 votes

Yes, separate GOGs for every postseason series and colin's thesis can just just go to hell

2 votes

This option to FIRE GEREN NOW has been automatically appended to your poll by AN 3.0. Have a nice day!

0 votes

11 votes | Poll has closed

GOG 2009 #50

colin — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:30:38 -0000

It's the 50th GOG of the season! Thinking back to late April, where did we all think that we would be at this point? If I take a look here, I see that roughly 90% of us thought that these last series against the Angels would be a meaningful part of the division race.

Now, some might say that the A's have been playing like a playoff team over the last month or so. I would just like to point out that, for this series, one team is starting Jered Weaver, John Lackey, and Joe Saunders while the other team is starting Gio Gonzalez, Dana Eveland, and Edgar Gonzalez. I think that I can pick the playoff team out of that lineup. Putting aside some justifiable pessimism, I'll just focus on the A's offense, which has definitely been clicking lately, and the remarkable job that the bullpen has done. The race is still on to determine whether Oakland or LAAAAAAA will finish with more wins for the decade. So let's go A's!

GOG #50 :: Last Rats of the Season (32 points possible)

Three game series @ Los Angeles Angels -- September 25-27

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-1 Oakland
Rank the three Angels starters (Weaver, Lackey, and Saunders) by pitcher game score, best to worst [2 points for each correct position] Weaver (50), Saunders (48), Lackey (24)
In their most recent starts, Gio, Dana, and Edgar pitched only 3.2, 5, and 3.1 innings, respectively. How many total innings for the A's starting pitchers against the second best offense in baseball? [3 points] 14.2 IP
In 351 career plate appearances against Oakland, Vlad Guerrero has been held to a mere .884 OPS (compare to an American League career value of .930). Predict his AB/H/TB for the series [2 points each] 12 AB, 1 H, 1 TB
Jack Cust is currently tied with Scutaro for fourth in the AL with 90 bases on balls (Figgins is first, followed by Abreu and Bay). How many walks does Cust draw in this series? [3 points] only one BB for Spartacust
About a week ago, Mike Scioscia said that he was considering giving some save opportunities to Kevin Jepsen. This hasn't happened yet, and Fuentes continues to lead the AL in saves (currently tied with Joe Nathan). Jepsen has been the much better pitcher this season, despite having a nearly identical ERA to Fuentes. They have the same strikeout rate, but Jepsen walks fewer hitters, keeps the ball on the ground, and allows far fewer HR. By WAR, Jepsen has been a full win better than Fuentes this season. Of these two relievers, who has the lower ERA for the series? Who allows the fewest hits per inning? Who has the lowest walks allowed per inning? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Jepsen posted a 21.60 ERA, allowing 1.8 hits and 1.2 walks per IP (1.2 innings total) while Fuentes pitched 1 inning and allowed no runs, 1 hit, no walks... so Fuentes wins in all three categories
Of the five projections systems displayed on fangraphs (Bill James, CHONE, Marcel the monkey, Oliver, and ZiPS) expectations for Erick Aybar's OPS this season ranged from .660 to .701. The fact that he is currently OPSing .761 while playing good defense at shortstop is another reason why I hate the Angels. ZiPS is still not impressed, projecting him to put up a .655 OPS for the rest of this season. Guess whether Aybar has an OPS of above or below .700 for the series [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Aybar OPSed .946 for the series, which is decidedly above .700
Win Probability Added values for relief pitchers can fly all over the place, thanks to high leverage situations near the end of close games. Which Oakland reliever has the best WPA for this series? [3 points] Wuertz has the most WPA, with +.113
Oakland hitters have received only 16 intentional walks, fewer than any other team in baseball. Do the Angels choose to put any Athletic on first for free? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] nope
How many games in the series are decided by 3 runs or fewer? [3 points] 2 (games 1 and 3)

Jered Weaver kicks things off at 7:05 sharp. Go Oakland!

Results

After grading the first few questions, I thought that Angry Sean had a shot at a perfect score. It didn't work out, but he still did well. So did a couple other people.

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 5.42857 points
standard deviation = 4.21927 points
mode = 3, 5, or 12 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

The winners for GOG 50 are swatnick and Angry Sean! Those two plus JLeverenz were pretty much head and shoulders above everyone else on this one. Also, I would be remiss not to note that JLeverenz crossed the 200 point mark and Rated-R Superstar passed 300 points!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
swatnick	1	12	29	8	245	1	0.264
Angry Sean		12	45	9	244	23	0.167
JLeverenz	3	11	31	15	208	8	0.209
Rated-R Superstar	4	8	44	3	305	7	0.218
micdog2001	5	7	41	5	276	9	0.208
muffinpryde	6	6	42	10	238	21	0.174
colin	7	5	48	6	274	18	0.177
stranahanahan		5	14	33	74	N/E	0.173
streetfan	9	4	45	14	209	27	0.142
nevermoor	10	3	45	1	357	2	0.244
easyraider		3	19	20	129	10	0.204
zaniac75	12	1	48	2	348	5	0.225
adragon	13	0	32	17	167	25	0.161
doctorK	14	-1	50	7	263	24	0.163
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	26	112	N/E	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	26	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	34	12	222	14	0.197
mikeA	DNP	--	31	11	232	4	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	25	116	19	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	24	117	6	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	15	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	13	217	20	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	11	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	21	126	13	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	27	110	12	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	22	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	37	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	34	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	16	206	17	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	38	59	N/E	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	38	4	283	3	0.231
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	35	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	36	68	28	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	38	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	21	126	N/E	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	21	126	16	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #49

colin — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 16:06:36 -0000

Sorry, but life has been throwing me curveballs lately, so this is going to be a short GOG. Hopefully this series will turn out like the last two, right?

GOG #49 :: Ranger Revenge? (21 points possible)

Four game series vs Texas Rangers -- September 21-24

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-2 split
Though Brad Ziegler doesn't have the same magic as he did last season, when he set the record for consecutive scoreless innings to start a major league career, he has actually been a better pitcher. The groundballs are still there, and the ridiculously low HR rate to go with it, plus he is striking out more hitters while walking fewer. The fact that his ERA is up to 3.15 in 2009 can be explained by his BABIP, which went from .246 in 2008 to .355 in 2009. And that is really a comment on Oakland's infield defense (and a dash of luck), not anything wrong with Ziggy. Predict his IP/K/BB for these four games [2 points each] 2.1 IP, 2 K, 3 BB
Ian Kinsler is proving himself to be a star player, with his second consecutive season at 4 WAR. Comparing this year to the last one, there are some significant differences, however. His BABIP is way way down, falling from .339 in 2008 to .246 this year. Ordinarily we might chalk that all up to bad luck (and I'm sure there is some luck component in there), but part of it seems to be a real change. While Kinsler's HR per fly ball ratio is up a bit this year, the main reason that he is about to break the 30 HR mark is because he is hitting a lot more fly balls than he did in the past. His fly ball rate is up from his previous norm of 43-45% to almost 55%, and the batted ball category that has declined is line drives. A big reduction in the number of line drives he is hitting surely accounts for part of the drop in BABIP, and his batting line has suffered as a result. It will be interesting to see if this is a one year fluctuation, or if it really represents the new Ian Kinsler. Anyway, the question is to predict his hits, home runs, and line drives for the series [2 points each] 1 H, 0 HR, 1 line drive (for a game ending double play)
How many plate appearance for Travis Buck in the series? Does he record a hit? [3 points for the first question, +-1 for the second question] 6 plate appearances and he did get a hit
Which Gonzalez posts a better game score, Edgar or Gio? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Gio's start was moved back a day, so he didn't pitch and this question doesn't count. But even Gio could have probably done better than Edgar Gonzalez's game score of 21.
As a team, the Rangers have almost identical numbers hitting against righties (.770 OPS) and lefties (.771 OPS). In this series, do they score more runs against the A's righties or lefties (counting starters and relievers)? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Waaaay more runs scored off of right handed pitchers, which isn't surprising because the righties threw waaaay more innings.

Game 1 starts at 7:05 pm. Don't swing and miss!

Results

Just catching up on some grading...

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 4.41667 points
standard deviation = 3.17543 points
mode = 5 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

The big winner is Rated-R Superstar! The big loser? That would be me.

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
Rated-R Superstar	1	10	43	3	297	7	0.218
swatnick	2	9	28	8	233	1	0.260
muffinpryde	3	6	41	9	232	21	0.174
streetfan	4	5	44	15	205	27	0.143
nevermoor		5	44	1	354	2	0.248
easyraider		5	18	20	126	8	0.210
zaniac75	7	4	47	2	347	4	0.229
Angry Sean		4	44	9	232	25	0.162
doctorK	9	3	49	7	264	23	0.167
micdog2001	10	2	40	5	269	9	0.208
stranahanahan		2	13	35	69	N/E	0.175
colin	12	-2	47	5	269	18	0.178
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	26	112	N/E	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	26	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	34	12	222	14	0.197
mikeA	DNP	--	31	9	232	5	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	25	116	19	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	24	117	6	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	15	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	13	217	20	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	11	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
JLeverenz	DNP	--	30	16	197	10	0.205
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	20	126	13	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	27	110	12	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	22	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	37	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	14	206	17	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	38	59	N/E	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	38	4	283	3	0.231
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
adragon	DNP	--	31	17	167	24	0.166
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	36	68	28	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	38	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	20	126	N/E	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	20	126	16	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

Sorry, but life has been throwing me curveballs lately, so this is going to be a short GOG. Hopefully this series will turn out like the last two, right?

GOG #49 :: Ranger Revenge? (21 points possible)

Four game series vs Texas Rangers -- September 21-24

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-2 split
Though Brad Ziegler doesn't have the same magic as he did last season, when he set the record for consecutive scoreless innings to start a major league career, he has actually been a better pitcher. The groundballs are still there, and the ridiculously low HR rate to go with it, plus he is striking out more hitters while walking fewer. The fact that his ERA is up to 3.15 in 2009 can be explained by his BABIP, which went from .246 in 2008 to .355 in 2009. And that is really a comment on Oakland's infield defense (and a dash of luck), not anything wrong with Ziggy. Predict his IP/K/BB for these four games [2 points each] 2.1 IP, 2 K, 3 BB
Ian Kinsler is proving himself to be a star player, with his second consecutive season at 4 WAR. Comparing this year to the last one, there are some significant differences, however. His BABIP is way way down, falling from .339 in 2008 to .246 this year. Ordinarily we might chalk that all up to bad luck (and I'm sure there is some luck component in there), but part of it seems to be a real change. While Kinsler's HR per fly ball ratio is up a bit this year, the main reason that he is about to break the 30 HR mark is because he is hitting a lot more fly balls than he did in the past. His fly ball rate is up from his previous norm of 43-45% to almost 55%, and the batted ball category that has declined is line drives. A big reduction in the number of line drives he is hitting surely accounts for part of the drop in BABIP, and his batting line has suffered as a result. It will be interesting to see if this is a one year fluctuation, or if it really represents the new Ian Kinsler. Anyway, the question is to predict his hits, home runs, and line drives for the series [2 points each] 1 H, 0 HR, 1 line drive (for a game ending double play)
How many plate appearance for Travis Buck in the series? Does he record a hit? [3 points for the first question, +-1 for the second question] 6 plate appearances and he did get a hit
Which Gonzalez posts a better game score, Edgar or Gio? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Gio's start was moved back a day, so he didn't pitch and this question doesn't count. But even Gio could have probably done better than Edgar Gonzalez's game score of 21.
As a team, the Rangers have almost identical numbers hitting against righties (.770 OPS) and lefties (.771 OPS). In this series, do they score more runs against the A's righties or lefties (counting starters and relievers)? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Waaaay more runs scored off of right handed pitchers, which isn't surprising because the righties threw waaaay more innings.

Game 1 starts at 7:05 pm. Don't swing and miss!

Results

Just catching up on some grading...

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 4.41667 points
standard deviation = 3.17543 points
mode = 5 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

The big winner is Rated-R Superstar! The big loser? That would be me.

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
Rated-R Superstar	1	10	43	3	297	7	0.218
swatnick	2	9	28	8	233	1	0.260
muffinpryde	3	6	41	9	232	21	0.174
streetfan	4	5	44	15	205	27	0.143
nevermoor		5	44	1	354	2	0.248
easyraider		5	18	20	126	8	0.210
zaniac75	7	4	47	2	347	4	0.229
Angry Sean		4	44	9	232	25	0.162
doctorK	9	3	49	7	264	23	0.167
micdog2001	10	2	40	5	269	9	0.208
stranahanahan		2	13	35	69	N/E	0.175
colin	12	-2	47	5	269	18	0.178
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	26	112	N/E	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	26	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	34	12	222	14	0.197
mikeA	DNP	--	31	9	232	5	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	25	116	19	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	24	117	6	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	15	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	13	217	20	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	11	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
JLeverenz	DNP	--	30	16	197	10	0.205
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	20	126	13	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	27	110	12	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	22	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	37	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	14	206	17	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	38	59	N/E	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	38	4	283	3	0.231
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
adragon	DNP	--	31	17	167	24	0.166
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	36	68	28	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	38	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	20	126	N/E	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	20	126	16	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #48

colin — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 19:08:48 -0000

I must have seen the future because the title of the last GOG was "Ruin The Rangers", and the Athletics definitely just did that to any hopes that Texas has of making the playoffs. Of course, in my actual GOG entry I had Texas winning the series 2-1, so maybe claims of psychic ability should be taken with a grain of salt.

Starting today, the A's, with the worst home game attendance in the AL, will host the sorry Cleveland Indians (second worst home attendance in AL, 17 games behind the Tigers in the AL Central), in what is sure to be a crowd-pleasing four game series. September baseball can sometimes be full of tension and gut-wrenching ups and downs, but this series probably won't be that. So really it all comes down to the GOG race then!

GOG #48 :: Exciting Pennant Races! (34 points possible)

Four game series vs Cleveland Indians -- September 17-20

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 4-0 Oakland!!
For people who are scratching their heads over how Fausto Carmona went from being awesome in 2007 to being horrible for the last two seasons, I give you the following three numbers -- 2.55, 5.22, 5.57. Those are his BB/9 rates for the last three seasons. The 2007 figure of 2.55 is pretty good but since then he his control has been unspeakably awful. Predict Carmona's IP/BB/ER against Oakland [2 points each] 5.2 IP, 1 BB, 8 ER
It seems like every fANpost that mentions Rajai Davis gets like a million comments, so I am definitely including him in this GOG. How many times on base for Raj? [3 points] 7 times on base
Justin Masterson was traded to Cleveland as part of the package for Victor Martinez and he has shown some troubling signs as a starter for the Indians (he was mostly pitching out of the bullpen for Boston). He is still doing a good job at getting ground balls and avoiding the home run (actually, he is doing a ridiculously good job at avoiding home runs, but some of that is definitely luck and small samples), but his strikeout rate has dropped and his walks are up into Carmona territory. Maybe he's a case of a sinker/slider guy who doesn't have enough variety in his repetoire to succeed as a starter, but the Indians will surely give him more of a chance to prove himself. How many Oakland hitters does Masterson walk in his game 1 start? [3 points] 4 BB for Masterson
How many starts for Landon Powell, at catcher or elsewhere? Does he hit a home run in the series? [3 points for the first question, +-1 for the second question] 1 start, no HR
Travis Hafner hasn't been able to stay healthy this season, but he has been a decent hitter when he plays (not like his monster years of 2004-2006, but also not like his below replacement performance last season). How many plate appearances for Pronk? [3 points] 13 PA for Hafner
September call-up Michael Brantley has a big job in trying to fill Sizemore's shoes. So far he is hitting .328, but with few walks and pretty much zero power. Predict his H/SB/CS for the series [2 points each] 6 H, 0 SB, 2 CS
The 2009 Cleveland bullpen is almost bad enough to make fans long for the days of Joe Borowski. Their relievers have a combined ERA that is third worst in the AL, ahead of only Kansas City and Baltimore (and if you go by FIP, then Cleveland is second worst in all MLB, ahead of the Nationals). How many runs to the A's score against this bullpen of horrors? [3 points] 3 ER off the Cleveland bullpen
Mortensen (1-2), Anderson (9-10), and Gonzalez(5-6) all have the opportunity to even their records at .500 with a win. Which of these three young starters manages to do it? [+1 for each right, -1 for each wrong] Mortensen and Anderson pick up wins, Gio does not

The series starts up at 7:05 pm, so post your entries...

Results

That was another nice series, eh?

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 6.92857 points
standard deviation = 4.15959 points
mode = 8 or 10 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

I don't have a whole lot to say today, except congratulations easyraider and stranahanahan!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
easyraider	1	11	17	23	121	9	0.209
stranahanahan		11	12	36	67	N/E	0.179
zaniac75	3	10	46	2	343	4	0.229
Angry Sean		10	43	9	228	25	0.162
nevermoor		10	43	1	349	2	0.248
doctorK	6	9	48	7	261	23	0.167
A'sfaninNC	7	8	38	4	283	3	0.231
muffinpryde		8	40	10	226	21	0.172
Rated-R Superstar		8	42	3	287	7	0.214
swatnick	10	7	27	11	224	1	0.256
adragon	11	5	31	17	167	24	0.166
streetfan	12	2	43	15	200	27	0.141
colin	13	0	46	5	271	17	0.182
JLeverenz	14	-2	30	16	197	10	0.205
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	26	112	N/E	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	26	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	34	12	222	14	0.197
mikeA	DNP	--	31	8	232	5	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	25	116	19	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	24	117	6	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	15	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	13	217	20	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	11	0.202
micdog2001	DNP	--	39	6	267	8	0.210
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	20	126	13	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	27	110	12	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	22	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	37	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	14	206	18	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	38	59	N/E	0.199
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	28	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	38	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	20	126	N/E	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	20	126	16	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #47

colin — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:31:11 -0000

Heading into today's game, the Athletics record against the Texas Rangers sits an even 6-6. This three game set, plus a four game series next week in Oakland, will make the difference between having to acknowledge that the Rangers were just a flat out better team than Oakland this year, or being able to cling to a winning head-to-head record. On top of that, Texas is still hanging on to the wild card race, four games behind Boston. Let the spoiling begin!

GOG #47 :: Ruin the Rangers! (32 points possible)

Three game series @ Texas Rangers -- September 14-16

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 3-0 Oakland!!
In Scott Feldman, have the Rangers finally found a pitcher who can succeed in Arlington? The traditional (read: crappy) metrics say yes -- he has gone 16-4 with a 3.10 ERA in 26 starts this season. The more advanced metrics are not really convinced. Only 5.22 K/9 is pretty bad, especially when your BB/9 is a non-spectacular 2.97. The things he has going for him are a decent ground ball rate, leading to a low but maybe not too fluky HR/9 of 0.82, and a BABIP of .266, which means that he probably owes a lot of his success to the Rangers improved infield. Predict Feldman's IP, ER, and groundball outs for the series [2 points each] 6.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 groundball outs
Cliff Pennington is riding a hot streak to respectability (after the last four years, did you ever think you would see an Oakland shortstop with an OBP near .350?!?). Predict his PA/H/BB for the series [2 points each] 13 PA, 5 H, 0 BB
Coming off his best start (err... only good start?), how many innings will Mortensen last? [3 points] the rotation got shuffled around, so Mortensen did not pitch... Edgar Gonzalez got that start instead
Since being promoted in early August, Julio Borbon has been swinging a very hot bat, with a line of .333/.389/.494. Even though he's a fast guy who puts the ball on the ground, it's pretty unlikely that he can maintain that .386 BABIP (or an ISO of .161, which is practically double his career minor league number). He can really steal a base though. How many SB for Borbon in the series? Does he get caught stealing? [3 points for the first question, +-1 for the second] 0 SB, no CS
You all probably remember Neftali Feliz's major league debut against the A's on August 3. He came in to relieve Dustin Nippert at the start of the 6th inning and proceeded to strike out Kennedy, Suzuki, Hairston, and Cust for his first four outs, en route to pitching two perfect innings. He didn't fare quite as well two days later, giving up a two-run HR to Adam Kennedy (only one run charged to Feliz, since he inherited a runner), but he still managed to get a couple more Ks (Suzuki and Harston again). How many strikeouts for Feliz in this series? [3 points] Feliz pitched just one inning and recorded 3 more strikeouts... but he also allowed 2 hits, 2 walks, and was charged with 2 ER
RoY face-off!! Who contributes more Win Probability Added, Andrus or Bailey? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Bailey wins, +.045 to -.032
We can hope that Blevins has returned to his 2008 form, instead of the lousy pitching we saw early in the season. The numbers since his call up are great -- 6 K, 0 BB, and 1 ER in 6.1 IP. But let's be realistic, he has come into just six games, against the Royals, White Sox, and Twins. Facing the Rangers in Arlington might be a tougher test for Jerry. Predict Blevins' IP and ER against the Rangers [2 points each] 0.1 IP, 0 ER
Does Eric Munson see any playing time? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] no
Will any of the games be decided by only 1 run? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] no

Game one kicks off at 5:05 pacific. Make sure you post your guesses before then...

Results

Well that was a very satisfying series. Now let's see if we all got satisfying GOG scores.

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 5.66667 points
standard deviation = 2.39792 points
mode = 4 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

And the winners for GOG #47 are... streetfan and easyraider! zaniac75 has pulled to within 6 points of nevermoor (who announced his return below), so we might have a tight race down the stretch for the last few series out the year!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
streetfan	1	9	42	16	198	29	0.143
easyraider		9	16	26	110	13	0.202
colin	3	7	45	5	271	18	0.186
swatnick	4	6	26	12	217	1	0.258
Angry Sean		6	42	10	218	27	0.159
zaniac75	6	4	45	2	333	5	0.228
micdog2001		4	39	6	267	11	0.210
Rated-R Superstar		4	41	3	279	10	0.213
doctorK	9	2	47	7	252	26	0.165
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	25	112	7	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	28	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	34	9	222	16	0.197
mikeA	DNP	--	31	8	232	6	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	24	116	21	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	23	117	8	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	17	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	12	217	22	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	12	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
JLeverenz	DNP	--	29	15	199	9	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	20	126	15	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	26	110	14	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	24	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	36	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	14	206	20	0.179
nevermoor	DNP	--	42	1	339	3	0.247
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	37	59	N/E	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	37	4	275	4	0.231
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
muffinpryde	DNP	--	39	10	218	23	0.171
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
adragon	DNP	--	30	17	162	25	0.167
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	30	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	37	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	20	126	2	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
stranahanahan	DNP	--	11	39	56	N/E	0.165
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	20	126	19	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #46

colin — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:44:28 -0000

While this series might not look like much at first glance -- the Twins trail Detroit by 5.5 games with 22 left to play -- there is one very significant milestone here. After Sunday's series finale, the A's will never have to play another game in the Metrodome!

Ahh, the Metrodome, a true turd among the few crappy multi-use facilities that still host major league teams. I suppose that it has worked out all right for the Twins, as they consistently post winning records at home. After the Cardinals lost the 1987 World Series to the Twins, manager Whitey Herzog complained "I don't think there ever was more of a home-field advantage in the history of baseball."

The last time that Oakland won a series at the Metrodome was in August of 2005, and then they made up for it by losing 9 of 10 games at the Metrodome between the 2006 and 2007 series. For every game like this, it seems like there have been a whole lot more like this. So let's just say that I won't be shedding many tears when the place gets torn down.

GOG #46 :: Good Riddance to the Metrodome (32 points possible)

Three game series @ Minnesota Twins -- September 11-13

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-1 Oakland
Mauer for MVP! Predict his H/XBH/BB [2 points each] 5 H, 3 XBH, 1 BB
Since that crazy game where he gave up 11 runs in 2.2 innings, Gio has been a much improved pitcher, with a 3.93 ERA and 55 strikeouts over 52.2 innings (nine starts). Of course, that crazy 11 run start was also against Minnesota. Predict Gio's IP/K/ER this time around [2 points each] not so great -- 3 IP, 5 K, 7 ER
Old shortstop vs new shortstop :: Who reaches base more times in the series, Cabrera or Pennington? Who records more assists? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Pennington got on base more times (7 to 2), Cabrera had more assists (7 to 6)
I don't really think that Jason Kubel reads fangraphs, but maybe he took it personally when Dave Cameron questioned the contract he signed with Minnesota and pointed out that Kubel has been an extremely replaceable 0.5 to 1 win player. Kubel's response has been to post career bests in pretty much any hitting stat you can imagine and putting himself into a tie with Adam Lind for the highest wOBA among designated hitters. Predict Kubel's total bases for the series (on hits only) [3 points] only 1 total base (in 2 games played)
For people excited about Andrew Bailey's potential, one nice thing to see is how closely his profile matches that of Minnesota relief ace Joe Nathan. While Bailey's strikeout rate is quite as lofty as Nathan's (who leads the league in K/9), they have similarly great WHIPs (0.94 for Bailey, 0.92 for Nathan) and the strand rates to go along with that (84% vs 85%). The similarities continue when you look at the pitches they throw. Both Bailey and Nathan work off a hard fastball (both throw the fastball around 58% of the time and sit around 94 mph) and feature a hard breaking ball (cut fastball for Bailey, slider for Nathan) as their secondary pitch. Joe Nathan has been worth 2-3 wins above replacement every year since 2004; if the A's get anything like that from Andrew Bailey, then he will be an anchor in the bullpen for a long time. Finally, getting to the question, between the A's and Twins closers, who posts the best K/BB rate? The best WHIP? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Nathan's 1 K to 0 BB beats Bailey's 2 K to 1 BB. They each had WHIP of 1.
While it seems like the A's strike out about a million times per game, they are actually among the league leaders for the fewest strikeouts by hitters (among AL teams only the Orioles and Angels have fewer strikeouts). And, as usual, the Twins pitching staff is composed of a lot of strikeout and walk averse hurlers (fewest walks of any AL pitching staff, fourth fewest Ks... and Joe Nathan as the big exception with his 11.82 K/9). How many times do Oakland hitters strike out in this series? [3 points] A's hitter exceeded everyone's expectations with a whopping 28 strikeouts
Since being called up from Sacramento on September 1, Eveland has made only one appearance, pitching one inning against the Royals and allowing a run while striking out one and walking nobody. Will Dana get a chance to show his "stuff" against the Twins? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] yep, 1 IP in game 1 and 2 IP in game 3 -- no earned runs!
Which hitter, for Oakland or Minnesota, racks up the most extra-base hits? [3 points] Mauer, with 3 XBH
Which starting pitcher, for Oakland or Minnesota, throws the most innings? [3 points] Brett Anderson and Brian Deunsing tie with 7 IP each

This is a central timezone series, so you need to get your entries posted by 5:10 pacific. Waste no time!

Results

Pretty good scores this time around. I guess I should have remembered to post an entry...

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 5.76923 points
standard deviation = 3.00427 points
mode = 8 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

The victory for GOG #46 goes to muffinpryde, who has been on a bit of a roll lately. Also, easyraider (who had the highest point total for the first season of GOG, back in 2005) has crossed the 100 point mark with just 15 GOG under his belt.

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
muffinpryde	1	10	39	10	218	23	0.171
JLeverenz	2	8	29	15	199	10	0.214
Angry Sean		8	41	12	212	27	0.158
adragon		8	30	17	162	26	0.167
stranahanahan		8	11	39	56	N/E	0.165
GoAs	6	7	34	9	222	15	0.197
doctorK		7	46	7	250	25	0.167
zaniac75	8	5	44	2	329	5	0.230
micdog2001		5	38	6	263	11	0.212
oblique	10	4	38	11	217	22	0.176
Rated-R Superstar		4	40	3	275	9	0.215
easyraider	12	2	15	29	101	16	0.197
streetfan	13	-1	41	16	189	29	0.140
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
swatnick	DNP	--	25	13	211	1	0.261
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	25	112	7	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	28	0.158
mikeA	DNP	--	31	8	232	6	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	24	116	21	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	23	117	8	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	17	0.189
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	27	106	12	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	28	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	20	126	14	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	26	110	13	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	24	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
colin	DNP	--	44	5	264	18	0.185
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	36	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	14	206	20	0.179
nevermoor	DNP	--	42	1	339	3	0.247
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	37	59	N/E	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	37	3	275	4	0.231
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	30	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	37	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	20	126	2	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	20	126	19	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #45

colin — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 13:16:19 -0000

I hope you all had a nice extended weekend. Now it's back to work on the GOG...

The A's head into Chicago for a quick two game set with the White Sox. The White Sox have pretty much written off any playoff chances at this point (they are 8.5 games behind Detroit in the AL Central, 11 back in the Wild Card, and just last week they traded Jim Thome so that he could play for a contender). However, they are still showing signs of life, taking three of four from the Red Sox over Labor Day weekend. It's a short series, so here is a short GOG.

Also, I'll be in section 120, row 26 tonight. Come say hi if you're at the game! Hmmm... I'm not sure if there are any Chicagoans among the GOG regulars.

GOG #45 :: Short Set in Chicago (21 points possible)

Two game series @ Chicago White Sox -- September 8 and 9

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 1-1 split
Carlos Torres will make his fourth major league start Tuesday against Brett Tomko. His first three starts have been spread out over the last 2+ months and range from very good (7 shutout innings against the Cubs) to shockingly awful (6 walks in 3.1 innings against Cleveland). Predict his IP/ER/BB against Oakland [2 points each] put this one in the shockingly awful category -- 0.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 BB (2 HR!)
Fresh off a sweet grand slam against Seattle, how many RBI is Hairston responsible for against the White Sox? [3 points] 3 RBI
I went to two White Sox games over the weekend and for both games the Chicago designated hitter was Scott Podsednik. Seriously. Does Pods manage an extra-base hit, since he's trying to fill Thome's shoes? (note: just tell me whether or not he gets an XBH, regardless of whether he is DHing or playing outfield) ~~[3 points]~~ [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] yes, 2 doubles for Scotty Pods
U.S. Cellular Field has a consistently high HR park factor, with a current value of 1.151 (means that 15% more home runs are hit in U.S. Cellular than in an average ballpark). How many home runs for each team in this series? [2 points each] 2 HR for each team
Will Gordon Beckham make it into either of the games in this series? (He left Saturday's game after the top of the first with a tight back) [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] nope
Which former Oakland outfielder has a better series by WPA, Jermaine Dye or Mark Kotsay? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] They both had an overall negative contribution to win probability, but Kotsay was less negative (-.038) than Dye (-.327)
Bonus question -- How many overpriced ballpark beers will Colin drink during the two games? [0 points] 2, and they were delicious!

Game one kicks off at 5:11 pm. You don't want to miss any Brett Tomko, so get your answers posted early!

Results

Sort of a weak little GOG on my part, but I'll try to make up for it with the next series.

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 2.76923 points
standard deviation = 3.13990 points
mode = 6 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Congratulations to doctorK for winning the GOG! Also, Angry Sean breaks through the 200 point barrier, and nevermoor somehow pulls slightly away from zaniac75 despite forgetting to post an entry.

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
doctorK	1	7	45	7	243	24	0.166
micdog2001	2	6	37	6	258	10	0.213
Angry Sean		6	40	14	204	27	0.156
Rated-R Superstar		6	39	4	271	9	0.217
oblique	5	4	37	10	213	20	0.177
JLeverenz		4	28	15	191	11	0.213
colin	7	3	44	5	264	17	0.185
swatnick	8	2	25	11	211	1	0.261
A'sfaninNC		2	37	3	275	5	0.231
GoAs	10	1	33	9	215	15	0.197
zaniac75	11	-1	43	2	324	4	0.232
stranahanahan		-1	10	41	48	N/E	0.156
muffinpryde	13	-3	38	12	208	23	0.167
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	25	112	7	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	26	0.158
mikeA	DNP	--	31	8	232	6	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	24	116	21	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	23	117	8	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	16	0.189
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	27	106	12	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	28	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	20	126	14	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	26	110	13	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	17	161	22	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
streetfan	DNP	--	40	16	190	28	0.144
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	36	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	40	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	13	206	19	0.179
nevermoor	DNP	--	42	1	339	3	0.247
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
easyraider	DNP	--	14	29	99	N/E	0.206
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	37	59	N/E	0.199
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
adragon	DNP	--	29	18	154	25	0.164
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	39	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	29	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	37	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	20	126	2	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	20	126	18	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #44

colin — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 18:17:39 -0000

Well, every year there is that one team. The team that seems to bring out the worst in the Athletics. We all know that the lovable muppets haven't been very good at playing baseball this year, but there have definitely been bright spots too. It just seems like none of those bright spots show up against the Seattlites. Am I exaggerating, focusing too much on a couple bad games or bad innings? Yep, definitely. But, even though we are missing Felix this time around, I not looking forward to these next four games.

For the last GOG, I put on my rose-colored glasses and cheered for the A's to break out the brooms and start a stretch run that could pull the team into third place. We all saw how that worked out. This time around, I'm just begging for the A's to win one. One out of four. They can manage that, right?

GOG #44 :: A Feeling of Dread (31 points possible)

Four game series vs Seattle Mariners -- September 3-6

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-2 split
Beltre is back from his rather unfortunate injury. Predict his AB/H/RBI against Oakland [2 points each] 15 AB, 2 H, 1 RBI
Brad Kilby had his major league debut last night, pitching 2 innings and allowing 1 hit while striking out 2 and walking none. Not bad. Predict Kilby's IP/K/BB for this series [2 points each] Kilby did not pitch (0 IP, 0 K, 0 BB)
Which is the real Doug Fister? The pitcher who gives up five runs in six innings against the Royals? Or the pitcher who shuts down the Angels to the tune of one run in 7.1 innings? How many earned runs do the A's score against this young right-hander? [3 points] 1 ER for Fister
August was a very good month for Mark Ellis, who hit .340/.382/.480 over 112 plate appearances. How many times will he reach base against the Mariners? [3 points] Ellis reached base 3 times in the series
Vin Mazzaro has been throwing his fastball 65.8% of the time, which puts him behind only Cahill and Tomko among Oakland starters. The problem is that his fastball has been really bad, with a value of -1.9 runs per 100 fastballs. The only Oakland pitchers with worse fastballs this season are Marshall, Giese, and Mortensen, but there are significant sample size issues there. Do at least half of the hits off of Mazzaro come against his fastball? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Mazzaro did not pitch
The Seattle catching tandem of Kenji Johjima and Rob Johnson has been essentially replacement level this season, with OBPs of .280 and .290, respectively. Which team has a better OPS from their catching position in this series? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Oakland catchers OPS'ed .673, Seattle catchers OPS'ed 1.103
Ranked by Wins Above Replacement, Andrew Bailey and Michael Wuertz show up as the first and third best relief pitchers in the AL this season (Matt Thorton of the White Sox is number 2). On top of that, Brad Ziegler comes in at number 16. How many innings pitched and earned runs for the bullpen's big three? [2 points each] 8.1 IP, 3 ER
We already know that Ichiro gives amazing quotes for reporters, but this one is above and beyond -- "Chicks who dig home runs aren’t the ones who appeal to me," he said. "I think there’s sexiness in infield hits because they require technique. I’d rather impress the chicks with my technique than with my brute strength. Then, every now and then, just to show I can do that, too, I might flirt a little by hitting one out." (link) How many infield hits for Ichiro in the series? [3 points] 1 infield hit
If it seems like the Oakland offense has never shown up against Seattle this season, one of the reasons is that the A's have a Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) of only .259 against the Mariners, which is 30 points lower than the A's BABIP for the season as a whole. But this isn't just bad luck. The thing is that Seattle has a really good defense and their opponents BABIP for the whole season is just .272. So the A's have done a bit worse than that, but it's not really surprising, given their lack of good hitters. Ok, after that long introduction, the question is: Will the A's BABIP for the series be above or below .272? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Oakland BABIP for the series was .282

The series gets underway at 7:05 pm. Post your guesses. I'll be hiding under the bed.

Results

Well, that Mazzaro question really didn't work out. And the Kilby question was a bust as well. Nice work colin...

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 4.00000 points
standard deviation = 2.06559 points
mode = 5 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Congratulations to JLeverenz for the GOG victory! No major milestones this time around, as Angry Sean stalled right in front of the 200 points marker.

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
JLeverenz	1	8	27	16	187	10	0.213
colin	2	6	43	5	261	19	0.185
nevermoor		6	42	1	339	3	0.247
A'sfaninNC		6	36	3	273	5	0.233
streetfan	5	5	40	15	190	30	0.144
muffinpryde		5	37	10	211	24	0.172
Rated-R Superstar		5	38	4	265	9	0.216
stranahanahan		5	9	41	49	N/E	0.170
JLopez	9	4	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
swatnick	10	3	24	11	209	1	0.265
doctorK		3	44	7	236	27	0.164
zaniac75	12	2	42	2	325	4	0.236
micdog2001		2	36	6	252	11	0.212
adragon		2	29	18	154	26	0.164
oblique	15	1	36	11	209	22	0.177
Angry Sean		1	39	14	198	29	0.153
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	16	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	25	112	7	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	28	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	32	9	214	17	0.199
mikeA	DNP	--	31	8	232	6	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	24	116	23	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	23	117	8	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	18	0.189
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	27	106	13	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	28	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	20	126	15	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	26	110	14	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	17	161	25	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	36	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	40	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	13	206	21	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
easyraider	DNP	--	14	29	99	12	0.206
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	37	59	N/E	0.199
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	39	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	31	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	37	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	20	126	2	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	20	126	20	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #43

colin — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 17:20:58 -0000

September is here (well, it will be here tomorrow at least), so the A's schedule is packed full of the AL West. I'm really not looking forward to any more games against Seattle, but we can take solace in the series starting today against the woeful Kansas City Royals. As usual, Posnanski puts it best:

But this Royals team reminds me of that 1993 Mets team in this way — they are not without talent. But they will do what’s necessary to lose games. The 2005 Royals went out there every day knowing that the team across the dugout was better than they were. These Royals, on the other hand, are bad when Zack Greinke’s pitching. They are also bad when they score five runs in a game (4-10 record in those games if you can believe that). They don’t SCORE five runs in a game very often … but they still find ways to lose when they do.
...
They are also — and I admit this is an unofficial stat but I’m pretty confident about it — the league leader in times a player forgot the number of outs. The other day, catcher Miguel Olivo ran off the field with two outs which was staggering not because it was unusual (it has to be the third time this year Olivo has forgotten the number of outs) but because only two batters had come to the plate. It wasn’t like it was a long inning or something.
...
They are also — and I admit this is an unofficial stat but I’m pretty confident about it — the league leader in times a player forgot the number of outs. The other day, catcher Miguel Olivo ran off the field with two outs which was staggering not because it was unusual (it has to be the third time this year Olivo has forgotten the number of outs) but because only two batters had come to the plate. It wasn’t like it was a long inning or something.

Ok, that is getting to be a pretty long quote up there (of course, since it's from Posnanski's blog, it only amounts to about one fifth of the whole article). The point is to be thankful that, while the A's are an occasionally frustrating team that is lacking in talent, particularly on the offensive side, they at least can play some defense, hold a lead late in the game, and occasionally surprise you with a clutch hit. I can't say it enough: at least they aren't the Royals.

GOG #43 :: The Royals Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha! (34 points possible)

Three game series vs Kansas City Royals -- August 31, September 1-2

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-1 Oakland
Edgar Gonzalez is back in the starting rotation. Predict his IP/ER/BB [2 points each] 5 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB
Billy Butler's 41 doubles put him in a four way tie for 2nd place (Brian Roberts leads baseball with 48 doubles). In the last series against Oakland, he hit four doubles (including three in one game). How many two-baggers for the Royals big 1B/DH in this series? [3 points] no doubles for Butler
I've been pretty critical of Ryan Sweeney, because of his lack of power and inability to take a walk, but the only position players on the team who have posted more wins above replacement are Holliday and Davis (Suzuki is close, though, and Fangraphs WAR doesn't try to evaluate catcher defense, so there is a good argument for Suzuki being more valuable than Sweeney). How many hits in this series for Ryan? [3 points] 3 hits
Miguel Olivo is having his best year with the bat, if it's at all possible to say that about someone with a .274 OBP. He has 17 home runs but he is swinging at an amazing 44.5% of pitches out of the zone. Predict his BB/K/HR against Oakland [2 points each] 0 BB, 3 K, 0 HR
Kyle Farnsworth has had a very interesting season. A FIP of 3.12 is pretty darn good, as is a K/BB ratio of 3.88. On the other hand, the ERA of 5.40 is not so impressive. The best part is that pretty much all of his meltdowns have come in the late innings of close games. Fangraphs calculates a clutch score which is the difference between win probability added in high leverage and low leverage situations. Farnsworth's clutch score of -3.13 wins is far and away the worst for any player in baseball. Will the A's face Farnsworth in any game where the score is within two runs? Will Farnsworth allow any earned runs in the series (in any situation, not just a close game)? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Yes, Farnsworth did pitch in a two-run game. He did allow one earned run.
If they had been able to hang on to all of their players, the Royals could be featuring an outfield of Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran, and Jermaine Dye instead of David DeJesus, Jose Guillen, Mitch Maier, Coco Crisp, Mark Teahen, and whoever else. How many RBI for Royals outfielders in the series? [3 points] 3 RBI
Twenty eight games is way too few to really say anything, but UZR likes Pennington's defense so far at shortstop. He's been pretty much average in terms of range and double plays, but zero errors on 38 put outs and 86 assists is pretty good. How many assists for Pennington in the series? Will he commit his first major league error? [3 points for the first part, +-1 for the second part] 8 assists, no errors
The active roster expands on September 1. The A's will use the extra space to take Crosby off the DL and probably also add some bullpen depth, since Gonzalez is back in the rotation. Guess which new addition to the major league roster contributes the most win probability added for Oakland [3 points] Blevins contributes the most WPA, with +.074 spread over two appearances. Other September call-ups who saw action are Kilby (.014 WPA) and Eveland (.001 WPA).
Joe Posnanski has started the push for the Royals to call up Disco Hayes (the nickname "Disco" is because he throws his fastball in the 70's!), a submarining relief pitcher who is currently pitching in AAA Omaha. Will Hayes get a September call up (during this series)? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] nope

First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 pm. You all know what to do by now.

Results

Wow, really high scores on this one. I guess I'm being nicer with the questions. Olivo's BB and HR were pretty much gimmes. Same with the Disco Hayes question, and whether or not Pennington would get an error (swatnick pointed out in his entry that it might be more about the official scorekeeper in Oakland than it is about Cliff).

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 11.8571 points
standard deviation = 4.81755 points
mode = 10 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Congratulations to muffinpryde for dominating this GOG! Also, we have three new members of the 200 points club, muffinpryde, swatnick, and oblique, plus Angry Sean is knocking on the door...

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
muffinpryde	1	22	36	11	206	24	0.172
swatnick	2	18	23	11	206	1	0.271
micdog2001		18	35	6	250	10	0.216
oblique	4	17	35	10	208	21	0.180
zaniac75	5	11	41	2	323	4	0.240
A'sfaninNC		11	35	3	267	5	0.234
doctorK	7	10	43	7	233	27	0.165
colin		10	42	5	255	19	0.185
stranahanahan		10	8	41	44	N/E	0.171
streetfan	10	9	39	15	185	30	0.144
JLeverenz	11	8	26	16	179	11	0.211
nevermoor		8	41	1	333	3	0.248
Angry Sean	13	7	38	14	197	29	0.156
Rated-R Superstar		7	37	4	260	9	0.217
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	16	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	25	112	7	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	28	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	32	9	214	17	0.199
mikeA	DNP	--	31	8	232	6	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	24	116	23	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	23	117	8	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	18	0.189
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	27	106	13	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	28	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	20	126	15	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	26	110	14	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	17	161	25	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	87	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	84	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	36	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	40	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	84	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	11	206	22	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	41	44	N/E	0.227
easyraider	DNP	--	14	29	99	12	0.206
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	37	59	N/E	0.199
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	87	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
adragon	DNP	--	28	18	152	26	0.167
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	39	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	31	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	84	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	37	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	20	126	2	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	89	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	20	126	20	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	3	89	5	N/E	0.051
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #42

colin — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 15:38:33 -0000

I really don't like the AL West this season. That last series was just the latest in a string of bad Oakland performances against their division rivals. As of right now, the A's are a .364 team when playing against Seattle, Texas, or LAAA. So it is with a heavy sense of dread that I consider the upcoming four game set in Anaheim.

Let's just get on with the GOG.

GOG #42 :: Down with the AL West (35 points possible)

Four game series @ Los Angeles Angels -- August 27-30

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-2 split
Kendry Morales is having a big year in his first full major league season. Seriously, where did those 27 home runs come from all of a sudden? Predict Morales' AB/H/XBH against Oakland [2 points each] 16 AB, 9 H(!), 5 XBH(!)
Brett Anderson has been getting robbed! In his 8 no-decisions this season, he has a WHIP of just 1.17 and has struck out 40 batters against just 12 walks, adding up to an ERA of 3.64. How many runs to the A's score in Brett's Sunday start (against Lackey!) [3 points] Athletics score one whole run in Anderson's start
Jose Arredondo is having a disappointing season, as his ERA has ballooned from 1.62 in 2008 to 5.86 this year. One possible cause is a decrease in his average fastball velocity from 93.7 mph to 92.2. What's sort of weird is that his K/9 is actually up by a lot, into Andrew Bailey territory. How many Athletics does Arredondo strike out? Do the A's score any runs off of him? [3 points for the first part, +-1 for the second part] Arredondo strikes out 1, allows 3 ER in the series
In 15 career appearances vs Oakland (14 of them as a starter), Ervin Santana has an ERA of 1.35 and a WHIP of 0.977. I'm actually sort of surprised that his K/9 against the A's is only 6.4, which is lower than his overall career number by a full point. Predict Santana's ER/K/BB this time around [2 points each] 2 ER, 6 K, 2 BB
Cliff Pennington is providing more value than Bobby Crosby just by keeping his mouth shut. His OBP is sitting at .299 right now. Will Cliff get on-base in at least 30% of his plate appearances this series? Will he pick up his sixth extra-base hit of the year? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Pennington has a .200 OBP for the series, but he does get an extra-base hit
The good catcher and the bad catcher :: How many starts behind the plate for Napoli (.883 OPS) vs Mathis (.624 OPS)? [3 points] 1 start for Napoli, 3 starts for Mathis
Recently Ziegler made it on a Sport Illustrated list of the top 10 set-up men in baseball. His ERA might not be quite as sparkly as it was last year, but he's getting more strikeouts, fewer walks, and still sports a groundball rate over 60%. Predict Ziggy's walks, strikeouts, and groundball outs for the series [2 points each] 0 BB, 1 K, 4 groundball outs
It's been a long time since the A's and Angels were remotely close in stolen base standings. Which team gets more swipes in the series? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] 4 SB for Oakland, 0 SB for the Angels
Does any Athletic have a three (or more) hit game in the series? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] yep, Sweeney in game 1 and Rajai in game 3

First pitch is at 7:25 sharp. Don't miss it!

Results

A pretty solid series for the A's and an excellent bunch of scores for the GOG. One of these days, I'm going to look for the correlation between GOG scores and how well Oakland does in a given series. I suspect it's going to be a fairly tight relationship.

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 7.42857 points
standard deviation = 2.95386 points
mode = 8 or 10 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

I'm the winner! I rule!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
colin	1	12	41	5	245	20	0.182
zaniac75	2	10	40	2	312	4	0.238
nevermoor		10	40	1	325	3	0.248
A'sfaninNC		10	34	3	256	5	0.231
Rated-R Superstar	5	9	36	4	253	9	0.218
oblique	6	8	34	11	191	23	0.171
adragon		8	28	18	152	25	0.167
dtownmbrown		8	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
doctorK	9	7	42	8	223	26	0.162
Angry Sean		7	37	12	190	29	0.155
Kimberly	11	6	21	19	131	18	0.189
muffinpryde	12	5	35	14	184	27	0.158
stranahanahan	13	3	7	45	34	N/E	0.152
GoAs	14	1	32	9	214	17	0.199
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
swatnick	DNP	--	22	13	188	1	0.259
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	16	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	25	112	7	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	28	0.158
mikeA	DNP	--	31	6	232	6	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	24	116	22	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	23	117	8	0.225
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	27	106	13	0.202
micdog2001	DNP	--	34	6	232	11	0.206
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
JLeverenz	DNP	--	25	16	171	10	0.210
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	28	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	20	126	15	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	42	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	26	110	14	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	17	161	24	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	87	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	84	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
streetfan	DNP	--	38	15	176	30	0.140
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	36	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	40	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	84	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	10	206	21	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	41	44	N/E	0.227
easyraider	DNP	--	14	29	99	12	0.206
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	37	59	N/E	0.199
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	42	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	87	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	44	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	45	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	39	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	31	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	84	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	37	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	20	126	2	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	89	5	N/E	0.179
Blicks	DNP	--	21	20	126	19	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	3	89	5	N/E	0.051
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #41

colin — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 16:09:53 -0000

The Athletics are heading up to Seattle to take on their closest competition in the AL West, the third place Mariners. The Mariners don't look so hot right now, 12 games back from the first place Angels and below .500 for the last month or more. But, before you start to feel any sympathy for the fishermen, think back to the start of the season, when we were young and naive, and thought that Holliday, Giambi, and Cust would make a fearsome heart of the batting order. Back then, in early April, the Mariners came into Oakland and swept the place clean, putting a sour taste in my mouth that has persisted all season.

Now the A's and Mariners are both out of the playoff hunt. And while we should be focusing on future seasons, wouldn't it be nice to get a little bit of revenge right now? The A's are currently down 3-6 in the season series vs Seattle. With 9 games left on the schedule between the two teams, Oakland still has an excellent opportunity to overtake the Mariners and put them back in last place like they deserve -- starting tonight!

GOG #41 :: Marinating In Seattle (32 points possible)

Three game series @ Seattle Mariners -- August 24-26

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 3-0 Seattle
Ian Snell, acquired by the Mariners from the Pirates, has never exactly been a control pitcher, but I hope for his sake that this year's BB rate of 5.33 per 9 innings is a fluke. Predict IP/BB/ER for the right-hander [2 points each] 6 IP, 2 BB, 1 ER
Relatively recent Athletics :: Out of Jack Hannahan and Mike Sweeney, who gets the most hits? The most runs scored? The most runs batted in? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Sweeney with 3 hits, Hannahan with 3 runs scored, Sweeney with 1 RBI
Back up in the Majors, predict Barton's AB/H/BB [2 points each] 2 AB, 1 H, 1 BB
Free swinging as always, the Mariners are dead last in the AL for drawing walks. How many free passes do they receive from Oakland pitching? [3 points] Mariners manage to draw 10 walks
Josh Wilson to take over shortstop duties -- this successfully confused the hell out of me when I was looking over their roster. How many hits in the series for J. Wilson? [3 points] 1 hit for Josh Wilson
How many put outs for Franklin Gutierrez? [3 points] 13 put outs
Who strikes out a higher percentage of batters faced, Bailey or Aardsma? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Bailey faced three batters and didn't strike out any of them. Aardsma struck out 4 of the 12 batters he faced.
Who hits the longest home run in the series, according to HitTracker? [3 points] HitTracker doesn't have data for the first two games in the series, so this is for game three only. Jose Lopez hit the longest home run (408 feet). Runners up were Kurt Suzuki (383 feet) aand Jack Cust (361 feet).
Does any game in this series go to extra innings? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] yes, game 2

Game one starts at 7:10, so you have 10 minutes more than usual to get your GOG entries posted. Use that time wisely...

Results

Very low scoring round for the GOG. Very bad series for the A's. I am starting to understand how Seattle fans must have felt that one year when Oakland was 18-1 against the Mariners (was it 2006?).

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 2.60000 points
standard deviation = 1.95667 points
mode = 1 point

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Congratulations to our winners, micdog2001 and FormerHuntsvilleStar!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
micdog2001	1	6	34	6	232	11	0.206
FormerHuntsvilleStar		6	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
doctorK	3	5	41	8	216	26	0.161
easyraider		5	14	29	99	12	0.206
streetfan	5	3	38	15	176	30	0.140
Rated-R Superstar		3	35	4	244	9	0.217
oblique	7	2	33	12	183	23	0.169
colin		2	40	5	233	21	0.178
zaniac75	9	1	39	2	302	4	0.236
Angry Sean		1	36	12	183	29	0.154
nevermoor		1	39	1	315	3	0.247
A'sfaninNC		1	33	3	246	5	0.229
muffinpryde		1	34	14	179	27	0.159
stranahanahan		1	6	47	31	N/E	0.164
Blicks		1	21	19	126	19	0.183
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
swatnick	DNP	--	22	11	188	1	0.259
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	17	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	25	112	7	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	28	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	31	9	213	13	0.205
mikeA	DNP	--	31	6	232	6	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	24	116	22	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	23	117	8	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	20	22	125	18	0.190
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	27	106	14	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
JLeverenz	DNP	--	25	16	171	10	0.210
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	57	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	28	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	57	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	19	126	16	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	42	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	26	110	15	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	17	161	24	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	87	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	84	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	56	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	36	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	40	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	84	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	10	206	20	0.179
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	41	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	37	59	N/E	0.199
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	55	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	63	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	42	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	87	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	44	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	60	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	63	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	46	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	60	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	54	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	47	31	N/E	0.086
adragon	DNP	--	27	18	144	25	0.165
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	45	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	39	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	31	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	84	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	37	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	19	126	2	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	63	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	60	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	89	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	3	63	17	N/E	0.167
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	57	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	3	89	5	N/E	0.051
robbo650	DNP	--	4	63	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #40

colin — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 19:16:25 -0000

This weekend, the A's finish off their season series against Detroit. Their record so far against Detroit is a 2-4, so it would take a series sweep to get into the positive column. The Tigers will be trying very hard to avoid that outcome, as they are perched only 2.5 games above the White Sox. And... that's all the analysis I have right now.

GOG #40 :: Tigers and Elephants, A Trip To The Zoo (32 points possible)

Three game series vs Detroit Tigers -- August 21-23

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-1 Oakland
In five games against Oakland this season, Ryan Raburn has seven hits, five of which went for extra bases (three doubles and two home runs). How many total bases (total bases counts only hits, not walks, stolen bases, etc) for Raburn in this series? [3 points] 9 total bases for Raburn (2 HR and a single), even though he only started one game and came into the other two as a late inning PH
Rajai Davis is definitely a valuable player if he can keep up his current .363 OBP. One big difference from last year is that he has nearly tripled his BB rate. The good news is that last year's 3.6 BB% might be the real aberration -- in 2007 he posted a BB rate of 10% and pretty much the same OBP that he is sporting right now. How many times will Davis get on base in the series? [3 points] Rajai reached base 4 times
Edwin Jackson is having a big year. A lot of the improvement seems to be real, as he has improved both his strikeout and walk rates. Of course, like many pitchers having career years, his BABIP is a very low .267. Predict Jackson's ER/BB/K against Oakland [2 points each] 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
I think it's safe to say that Tomko's start against the Yankees caught us all by surprise. How many earned runs does he allow against Detroit? [3 points] 1 ER for Tomko
Curtis Granderson is having a down year, but a lot of it seems to be bad luck. His OPS is down by 60 points, but that is pretty much entirely due to a 26 point dip in his batting average. He still hitting line drives at an excellent 21% rate, but his BABIP is much lower than would be expected (rule of thumb is that Batting Average on Balls In Play should be roughly your line drive rate plus 12%). How many walks, hits, and line drives for Granderson against Oakland? [2 points each] 0 BB, 3 H, 2 line drives
How many total home runs in the series, from both teams combined? [3 points] 8 home runs!!
By relief pitcher Runs Above Replacement, Oakland has the most productive bullpen in baseball this year (note: this doesn't necessarily mean the best... A's relievers have pitched more innings than the relievers for all but 3 other teams). How many earned runs for the A's bullpen in this series? [3 points] Oakland bullpen allows 3 earned runs
Will we see new addition Scott Patterson in a major league game this series? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] nope
Which team commits more errors? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Detroit

This GOG is up a little late, so post your guesses already. Go Gio!

Results

That was a lot of home runs!

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 5.28571 points
standard deviation = 3.14835 points
mode = 2, 4, or 10 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Victory is split three ways, between Angry Sean, Rated-R Superstar, and stranahanahan. RRS is continuing to tear up the GOG standings, despite getting a somewhat late start. Will he be able to close the large gap that nevermoor and zaniac75 have put between themselves and everyone else?

Also, welcome zaniac75 into the 300 points club!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
Angry Sean	1	10	35	12	182	29	0.157
Rated-R Superstar		10	34	4	241	9	0.220
stranahanahan		10	5	48	30	N/E	0.191
doctorK	4	9	40	9	211	27	0.161
nevermoor	5	6	38	1	314	2	0.253
adragon	6	5	27	18	144	25	0.165
oblique	7	4	32	13	181	23	0.172
micdog2001		4	33	7	226	12	0.207
train80		4	35	10	206	21	0.179
GoAs	10	3	31	8	213	13	0.205
colin		3	39	6	231	20	0.181
zaniac75	12	2	38	2	301	4	0.242
streetfan		2	37	15	173	30	0.142
muffinpryde		2	33	14	178	26	0.163
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
swatnick	DNP	--	22	11	188	1	0.259
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	17	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	25	112	7	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	31	84	28	0.158
mikeA	DNP	--	31	5	232	6	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	24	116	22	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	23	117	8	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	20	21	125	19	0.190
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	27	106	14	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
JLeverenz	DNP	--	25	16	171	10	0.210
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	57	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	28	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	57	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	19	126	16	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	42	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	26	110	15	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	17	161	24	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	87	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	84	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	56	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	36	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	40	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	84	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	10	32	82	N/E	0.257
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	41	44	N/E	0.227
easyraider	DNP	--	13	29	94	11	0.209
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	37	59	N/E	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	32	3	245	5	0.235
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	55	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	63	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	42	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	87	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	44	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	60	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	63	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	46	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	60	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	54	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	48	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	47	31	N/E	0.086
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	45	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	39	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	31	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	84	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	37	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	19	126	3	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	63	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	60	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	89	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	3	63	17	N/E	0.167
Blicks	DNP	--	20	21	125	18	0.190
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	57	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	3	89	5	N/E	0.051
robbo650	DNP	--	4	63	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #39

colin — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 18:09:31 -0000

Well, I thought that I would have plenty of time to whip up an awesome GOG, considering that I'm stuck in the Santiago airport for pretty much the whole day. But the internet ended up much spottier than the last time I was here, and I forgot to include a plug converter in my carry-on, so about half a GOG is all you'll get.

The A's start a series tonight against the Yankees, who have taken over the AL East by winning 23 of their last 30 games. After starting the season slowly, with ARod injured, they have been pretty much unstoppable over the last couple months. Literally the only significant problem I can find with the team from the Bronx is their rotating fifth starter situation (which will lead to the A's facing Chad Gaudin on Wednesday!). I know that a million frightened Red Sox fans are hoping that Oakland pitching will shut down New York's big bats. But is there really any chance for Tomko tonight?

GOG #39 :: Can Anyone Stop the Yankees? (26 points possible)

Three game series vs New York Yankees -- August 17-19

UPDATE -- answers, courtesy of doctorK, are posted below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-1 Yankees
Possibly the most anticipated debut of the year :: Predict Tomko's IP/ER/K for his first start as an Athletic [2 points each] 5 IP, 0 ER, 1 K for our ace
On Wednesday, Chad Gaudin will face the A's for the first time since he left the team. Predict his ER/BB/K [2 points each] 4.1 IP, 5 BB, 5 K... that sounds like Gaudin to me
The average hitter in the Yankees lineup has 16.5 home runs. The average hitter in the A's lineup has 7.2. Predict the home run differential for the series (i.e. Oakland hits 10 more home runs than New York) [3 points] Oakland +2 for home runs
Scott Hairston's slugging numbers are pretty decent, but the sub-.300 OBP is kind of brutal. In his 133 plate appearances since coming to Oakland, Hairston has drawn only 5 walks (and he was hit-by-pitch twice). How many times does Hairston get on base this series from an outcome other than a hit? [3 points] 1 BB for Hairston
The Yankee with the most Wins Above Replacement so far this season isn't ARod or Teixeira (though Tex is having a pretty nice season). It's actually Derek Jeter, who has already been worth 5 wins, thanks to a rebound at the plate and the first season ever where UZR rates him as above average. After last year, many people were sure that he was on the decline, so age 35, this might be the closest that he has even been to underrated. Will the Yankee captain reach base in each game of the series? Will his overall contribution to the Yankee's win probability be positive or negative for the series? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Jeter got on base every game (he had three multi-hit games, in fact) and his WPA was positive
How many innings will the A's bullpen have to handle? [3 points] 10 innings

First pitch is coming up in about 8 hours. With the Burnett-Tomko matchup, all signs point to a 1-0 nailbiter.

Results

High scores on this one, despite the small number of questions. And also despite the fact that no one saw that Tomko start coming.

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 7.27273 points
standard deviation = 3.71728 points
mode = 5 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

All hail nevermoor, the first member of the 300 points club. And I think it is a safe bet that zaniac75 makes it into the club on the next round...

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
nevermoor	1	13	37	1	308	2	0.254
doctorK	2	12	39	9	202	27	0.158
zaniac75	3	11	37	2	299	4	0.246
Rated-R Superstar	4	10	33	5	231	9	0.217
oblique	5	7	31	12	177	23	0.174
adragon		7	26	18	139	26	0.165
A'sfaninNC	7	5	32	3	245	5	0.235
stranahanahan		5	4	55	20	N/E	0.160
Blicks		5	20	21	125	18	0.190
colin	10	3	38	6	228	20	0.183
JLeverenz	11	2	25	15	171	10	0.210
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
swatnick	DNP	--	22	11	188	1	0.259
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	17	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	25	112	7	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	31	84	28	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	30	8	210	13	0.208
mikeA	DNP	--	31	4	232	6	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	24	116	22	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	23	117	8	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	20	21	125	19	0.190
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	51	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	27	106	14	0.202
micdog2001	DNP	--	32	7	222	12	0.209
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	57	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	28	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	57	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	19	126	16	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	42	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	26	110	15	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	17	161	24	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	87	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	84	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	55	20	N/E	0.137
streetfan	DNP	--	36	15	171	30	0.144
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	36	60	N/E	0.174
Angry Sean	DNP	--	34	14	172	29	0.153
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	40	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	84	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	34	9	202	21	0.181
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	10	32	82	N/E	0.257
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	41	44	N/E	0.227
easyraider	DNP	--	13	29	94	11	0.209
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	37	59	N/E	0.199
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	51	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	50	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	54	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	63	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	42	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	87	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	44	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	60	18	N/E	0.173
muffinpryde	DNP	--	32	13	176	25	0.166
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	63	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	46	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	81	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	60	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	53	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	48	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	47	31	N/E	0.086
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	45	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	39	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	31	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	84	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	37	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	19	126	3	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	49	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	63	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	60	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	89	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	3	63	17	N/E	0.167
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	57	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	3	89	5	N/E	0.051
robbo650	DNP	--	4	63	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

SBNation.com User Blog: colin

DLD 2011-07-14 -- Rankings

1. The Six-Fingered Man

2. Jose Bautista

3. Felix Hernandez

4. Almost everybody else

5. Bloomie

6. The One-Armed Man

7. Brett Anderson

8. The Black Knight

9. Justin Duchscherer

GOG 2011 #18

Links

GOG 2011 #18 -- Migratory Birds Visit Oakland

Results

GOG 2011 #04

GOG 2011 #04 — Shutting Down Chicago

Scores

GOG 2011 #03

GOG 2011 #03 -- Terrible Twins

Scores

GOG 2011 #02

GOG 2011 #02 -- Half-Assed Toronto GOG

Scores

GOG 2011 #01

GOG 2011 #01 -- I've been waiting since September!

Results and Standings

GOG 2011 #00

What is this GOG that you speak of?

GOG 2011 #00 -- I know exactly what will happen this season. Do you?

GOG #32 - Red Sox at Oakland - UPDATED with answers

Links

GOG #32 -- GOGging with the Enemy (37 points possible)

Shutdowns and Meltdowns

How about Geren's bullpen management?

He is the leverage master!

The Oakland bullpen would make anyone look good.

Breslow is giving me ulcers!

Praise for Anderson on Fangraphs Audio

Praise for Anderson on Fangraphs Audio

DLD 3/4/10 -- Dumping Hella Links

Opening day of the season is 32 days away. I find that to be...

hella rad!

hella lame!

You just sound like an idiot.

Dave Cameron is bullish on Pennington

Dave Cameron is bullish on Pennington

Brett Anderson is on twitter

Brett Anderson is on twitter

GOG 2009 Final Results

GOG #00 Answers

GOG #00 Results

GOG Season Recap

GOG Final Standings

GOG Awards

DLD 10/15/09 - The Decline of AN Civilization

GOG 2009 #52

Links

GOG #52 :: The Very Last One (32 points possible)

Results

Overall scoring statistics

Your Scores

Miguel Angel Sano signs with Minnesota

Miguel Angel Sano signs with Minnesota

GOG 2009 #51

Links

GOG #51 :: The Penultimate (32 points possible)

Results

Overall scoring statistics

Your Scores

Should we have GOGs for the postseason series?

No way! I GOG for the A's only!

No way! We need to make sure that no one has a chance at catching nevermoor!

Yes, one each for the division series, championship series, and world series

Yes, separate GOGs for every postseason series and colin's thesis can just just go to hell

This option to FIRE GEREN NOW has been automatically appended to your poll by AN 3.0. Have a nice day!

GOG 2009 #50

Links

GOG #50 :: Last Rats of the Season (32 points possible)

Results