SB Nation User Blog: colin

GOG 2009 Final Results

colin — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 14:51:24 -0000

It is time to wrap up the whole 2009 season, and the GOG along with it. This fANpost way freaking long. Scroll down to find answers and scores for GOG #00, an overview of the whole 2009 GOG, the final season standings, and awards.

GOG #00 Answers

It's a pretty tough thing to predict how a baseball season will unfold. Back in the those happy days of late March, most of us here at AN were in an optimistic mood. Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi were going to team up with Cust to provide some serious punch in the middle of the order, Orlando Cabrera was going to boost our shortstop production well above replacement level, and Justin Duchscherer would return quickly from his DL stint to provide All Star caliber starting pitching. Heck, some people were even expecting big things from Nomar.

Of course, that all turned out to be a fantasy, as the A's season quickly headed south. By the start of June, it seemed likely that 2009 would go down as the worst season of the decade. And, well, it was, but only just barely (we also won 75 last year, but that was with only 151 games played). The late season surge in offense, led improbably by Rajai Davis, along with fantastic rookie performances from Anderson and Bailey, kept the season interesting and leaves me in a hopeful mood for this offseason.

But, getting back to the GOG, all that recap should just serve to remind you that none of us saw the events of this season coming, so don't be too shocked by how far off your predictions were. Also, many many thanks to micdog2001, who looked up most of these answers for me.

Predict Oakland's 2009 record [3 points] -- The AN consensus on this one is summed up in a plot that I put together back in May. Oakland finished with a record of 75-87, which is one game worse than the lowest win total anyone guessed (that would be ANti-dentite). It's hard to accurately guess a season win total, so I gave partial credit here: 3 points for being exactly right, 2 points if you were off by one game, 1 point if you were off by two games.
Predict the AL West final standings [+1 for each correct, -1 for each incorrect] -- The final AL West standings have the Angels in first, Rangers in second, Mariners in third, and the lowly A's in fourth place. No one managed to predict this one perfectly, but people get two points for each team in the correct position. The community consensus is summed up in this plot.
Which team (AL or NL) finishes with the best record? How many games do they win? [3 points each] -- The Yankees with 103 wins. As with question 1, I gave partial credit for people's predictions of the season win total.
Name the AL and NL wild card teams [3 points each] -- Boston in the AL, Colorado in the NL
Which team (AL or NL) is most improved from their 2008 record? Which team declines the most from 2008? [3 points each] -- Most improved team was the Mariners, who finished with 24 more wins than they had in 2008 (honorable mentions to the Rockies and Giants, but it really wasn't close). The team that had the biggest decline was the Mets, who have 19 fewer wins than their 2008 total (honorable mentions to the Indians and Cubs).
Which AL teams will the A's have the best and worst win percentage against? [3 points each] -- The A's fared best against the Orioles, with a 5-1 record, and worst against the Yankees, going 2-7.
Does it really have to count? :: Which league wins the All Star Game? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] -- The AL wins the All Star Game... again.
The Real Greatest Rivalry :: Predict the result of the Oakland-LAAA season series (19 games total) [3 points] -- This one was close for most of the season, but then the Angels swept us away right at the end. The final tally is 7 wins for Oakland, 12 for LAAAAAA.
The Future of the West :: Which minor league system has a better W/L record - Texas or Oakland? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] -- For this question, I didn't count Arizona Fall League teams, Dominican Summer Leagues, rookie leagues, etc. For the Oakland system, I summed up the records for Vancouver, Kane County, Stockton, Midland, and Sacramento, for a combined record of 234-195 (0.545). In the Texas system, we have Spokane, Hickory, Bakersfield, Frisco, and Oklahoma City, who all combined for a 216-214 record (0.502). So the advantage here goes to the Oakland system!
Does the A's W-L record beat their Pythagorean record? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] -- The Athletics score 759 runs and allowed 761, which puts them at an even 81-81 for their Pythagorean record. So yeah, they underperformed by six games (which I believe is just one standard deviation, before people start flipping out).
Who will lead the 2009 A's in stolen bases? [3 points] -- That would be Rajai.
Being in the Right Place at the Right Time :: Who will lead the A's this season in WPA? [3 points] -- The A's 2009 leader in WPA was Michael Wuertz with +3.05 wins, who earned it by striking out hitter after hitter in close and late situations. For position players, the leader was Rajai Davis with +2.73 wins. Nobody guessed either of those two.
The Starting Rotation :: Who logs the most innings pitched for the 2009 A's? Which A's pitcher with at least 100 IP has the best ERA for the season? [3 points each] -- Most innings pitched was by Trevor Cahill with 178.2 innings pitched (chalk this up in the category of “reasons why Oakland didn't contend in 2009”), but Brett Anderson was right behind him with 175.1. The best ERA among pitchers with at least 100 innings was Dallas Braden, who posted a 3.89.
Injuries, Death, and Taxes :: How many times do the A's use the DL this season? [3 points] -- According to this article by Byg Urb, the A's used the DL 17 times. I tried to count them all up myself and got only the following 16 (in roughly chronological order): Duchscherer, Nomar, Ellis, Devine, Chavez, Casilla, Giese, Nomar again, Sweeney, Outman, Giambi, Barton, Braden, Crosby, Mazzaro, plus the strange business with Ben Copeland (taken in the Rule 5 draft despite being injured at the time, stashed on the Oakland DL, then called up for a cup of coffee once he got healthy, and quickly returned to the Giants). So I gave people credit if they answered either 16 or 17.
The Ringer :: Will Matt Holliday still be in an Oakland uniform at the end of the season? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] -- Nope, but I am amazed at how many people answered yes to this question. We were really being optimistic at the start of this season, eh?
Giambi's return :: Predict Jason's season totals for AB/BB/HR [2 points each] -- Giambi's line with Oakland was 269 AB, 50 BB, and 11 HR. I gave people credit for being within 20 AB, 5 H, or 1 HR of the correct answers.
Nooo-mah! :: Predict his AB/H/RBI [2 points each] -- Nomar had 160 AB, 45 H, and 16 RBI. Here, the acceptable margins of error were 15 AB, 5 H, and 2 RBI.
Someone not named Crosby :: How many games will Cabrera start at SS? [3 points] -- I didn't really specify whether I would be counting just the games he played for Oakland. So I gave credit for either his 100 games started as an Athletic or his 157 total starts. But nobody guessed either of those.
How many games will Duchscherer start this season? [3 points] -- We all know how this one turned out.
Who earns more saves this season, Devine or Ziegler? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] -- Ziegler wins this one with his seven saves. I should have included an “other” category...
The MAC Question :: How many Major League innings to Anderson, Cahill, and Mazarro combine to pitch in 2009? [3 points] -- Those three pitchers combined for a whopping 445.1 innings pitched, with Cahill and Anderson as the top two workhorses of the staff. This is a problem. Unsurprisingly, no one was especially close on this question, so I gave credit to anyone who guessed 400 or more.

GOG #00 Results

There are big points on the line for this one. Plus, when I tally the final season scores, GOG #00 is going to count double. So hold on to your hats...

maximum score = 75 points
minimum score = -9 points
mean = 9.807 points
standard deviation = 5.986 points
median = 10 points
mode = 15 points

Congratulations to Kyli, the grand prognosticator of the 2009 season! Of course, Kyli went on to not enter into any of the other GOG so we are left considering what might have been...

Rank	Name	Score	Rank	Name	Score
1	Kyli	22	30	easyraider	9
2	Flashfire	21		FormerHuntsvilleStar	9
	roscoe	21		nevermoor	9
	doctorK	21		JLeverenz	9
5	train80	20		robertmelvin	9
6	xbhaskarx	19	35	ZeroIndulgence	8
7	FoolshGame22	18	36	SoCal As Fan	7
8	micdog2001	16		oblique	7
	NateHST	16		GoAs	7
10	OaktownPower	15		streetfan	7
	A'sfaninNC	15	40	vegAN ryAN	6
	A'sBowlingLeague	15	41	gigglingone	5
	travdog6	15		EddieVegas_NRAF	5
	WaddellCanseco	15		Zonis	5
	geogrman	15	44	KMoAsFan	4
16	j_rich36	13		Boonee	4
	King Richard	13		tanghamilton	4
18	designatedforassignment	12		JPShark	4
	RayJEdd	12		sprtsnwyn	4
	zaniac75	12	49	swatnick	3
	Kimberly	12		Cutthemullet	3
	mikeA	12		Mantecan As Fan	3
23	Angry Sean	11	52	MaineAthletic	2
	crb29	11		elephantbaseball	2
	ANti-dentite	11	54	captain flitzy	1
	Gallagher's Watermelons	11	55	scatterbrian	0
27	DCinWC	10		colin	0
	SLOtown	10	57	tresselfan	-1
	redtopcowboy	10

GOG Season Recap

With that old business out of the way, let's take a look at some more numbers!

Total number of people who posted an entry for at least one GOG = 111
Total number of entries posted, including GOG #00 = 1280
Total number of points awarded, including GOG #00 = 8752
Average score, not including GOG #00 = 6.2420 points

And here is a histogram of every score this season (except GOG #00). It looks pretty nice and Gaussian, if you ask me. Also, in case people are curious, that bin on the very far left is Athletics fan and runner, from GOG #04. The bin on the far right is muffinpryde, from GOG #43.

Next up, let's take a look at everyone's GOG batting average (hey, if I call it GOG+ or wGOG, can I sit with the cool kids at the stats table?). This is defined for each person by taking their total points for the whole season and dividing it by the maximum number of points possible for the GOGs that person actually entered. So, if you're doctorK that would mean all the points, but it's less for everyone else.

The black histogram below is for everyone, even the people who only posted entries for one GOG. The red, green, and blue histograms count only people who participated in at least 10, 20, or 30 GOGs, respectively. Historically, the requirement to be in the running for the AVG title is to participate in at least one third of the GOGs, which translates to 17 entries for the whole season. Also, as you can see from that dashed line, we aren't exactly a whole bunch of Tony Gwynns around here.

GOG Final Standings

Ok, here is the moment you've all been waiting for (unless you just scrolled straight down here!). The final standings for the 2009 GOG...

Rank by total score	Name	Total score	Number of GOG entries	Rank by AVG	Final AVG	Number of GOG wins
1	nevermoor	392	48	1	0.234	9
2	zaniac75	384	51	5	0.218	5
3	A'sfaninNC	320	40	3	0.227	2
4	micdog2001	317	44	7	0.206	4
5	Rated-R Superstar	316	46	6	0.216	3
6	doctorK	312	53	18	0.171	4
7	colin	281	51	24	0.160	4
8	Angry Sean	270	47	21	0.164	4
9	swatnick	258	31	2	0.232	1
10	mikeA	256	32	4	0.218	1
11	muffinpryde	247	43	17	0.177	3
12	train80	246	36	11	0.190	2
13	GoAs	240	36	14	0.183	1
14	JLeverenz	232	34	9	0.192	1
15	oblique	231	39	19	0.167	1
	streetfan	231	48	26	0.137	5
17	roscoe	203	30	15	0.183	1
18	adragon	167	32	23	0.161	1
19	easyraider	161	22	10	0.190	3
20	Kimberly	155	22	13	0.184	0
21	NateHST	144	16	N/E	0.223	0
22	OaktownPower	140	17	8	0.201	2
23	ZeroIndulgence	132	21	22	0.163	0
24	elephantbaseball	130	20	20	0.167	0
25	RayJEdd	128	13	N/E	0.227	1
26	gigglingone	127	17	12	0.189	2
27	Blicks	126	21	16	0.183	2
	harenshair	126	15	N/E	0.249	2
29	SoCal As Fan	107	15	N/E	0.174	0
30	diehardoaklandfan22	106	16	N/E	0.202	0
	FormerHuntsvilleStar	106	12	N/E	0.212	4
32	DCinWC	104	17	25	0.152	0
33	crb29	92	12	N/E	0.181	2
34	SLOtown	80	11	N/E	0.162	0
35	stranahanahan	78	16	N/E	0.159	2
36	MaineAthletic	77	13	N/E	0.142	0
37	whiteshoes40	68	18	27	0.116	0
38	pam5981	59	7	N/E	0.276	0
	Athletix Man	59	9	N/E	0.199	0
	robertmelvin	59	7	N/E	0.160	0
41	WaddellCanseco	58	6	N/E	0.181	0
42	jpl	55	8	N/E	0.222	0
43	baseballnut020	51	9	N/E	0.173	0
44	A'sBowlingLeague	49	3	N/E	0.215	0
45	Flashfire	48	2	N/E	0.250	0
46	jay_sensei	44	6	N/E	0.227	0
	Kyli	44	1	N/E	0.293	1
48	Future Ed	41	6	N/E	0.197	0
49	designatedforassignment	40	4	N/E	0.154	0
50	nateh37	39	7	N/E	0.174	0
	vegAN ryAN	39	5	N/E	0.132	0
	King Richard	39	3	N/E	0.182	0
53	xbhaskarx	38	1	N/E	0.253	0
54	FoolshGame22	36	1	N/E	0.240	0
55	Helloooo 1st	34	6	N/E	0.165	0
56	j_rich36	33	2	N/E	0.172	0
57	VORP is too nerdy	32	4	N/E	0.234	0
	Gallagher's Watermelons	32	2	N/E	0.167	0
59	fruitattack	31	12	N/E	0.079	0
	travdog6	31	3	N/E	0.136	0
61	jasonthea	30	4	N/E	0.219	0
	Cutthemullet	30	4	N/E	0.120	0
	geogrman	30	1	N/E	0.200	0
64	tosk	29	5	N/E	0.179	0
65	KMoAsFan	28	5	N/E	0.095	0
66	Athletics fan and runner	27	6	N/E	0.133	0
	Boonee	27	4	N/E	0.104	0
68	dtownmbrown	25	4	N/E	0.182	0
	sprtsnwyn	25	3	N/E	0.115	0
70	eastcoasta'sfan	23	4	N/E	0.161	0
71	ANti-dentite	22	1	N/E	0.147	0
72	redtopcowboy	20	1	N/E	0.133	0
73	SamYam	19	3	N/E	0.186	0
	mikev	19	2	N/E	0.292	0
75	ElQuesoCapitan	18	3	N/E	0.194	0
	jeffro	18	4	N/E	0.150	0
	anomaly_kat	18	3	N/E	0.173	0
78	robbo650	17	4	N/E	0.132	0
	Oaktownflav	17	3	N/E	0.156	0
80	Gaijin_Suketto	14	1	N/E	0.424	0
	brian.only	14	4	N/E	0.096	0
82	ChadGod	13	1	N/E	0.382	0
	spiffyjwc	13	2	N/E	0.194	0
84	baseballgirl	10	1	N/E	0.286	0
	stabbin_mcadams	10	1	N/E	0.312	0
	Nico	10	1	N/E	0.278	0
	Zonis	10	1	N/E	0.067	0
88	JLopez	9	4	N/E	0.069	0
	chillicothe20	9	1	N/E	0.265	0
	samljm	9	1	N/E	0.265	0
	Walton711	9	1	N/E	0.214	0
	EddieVegas_NRAF	9	2	N/E	0.048	0
93	asyouwish33	8	1	N/E	0.250	0
	JediLeroy	8	1	N/E	0.222	0
	GreenOctober69	8	1	N/E	0.190	0
	tanghamilton	8	1	N/E	0.053	0
	JPShark	8	1	N/E	0.053	0
98	walkoff baltimore chop	7	1	N/E	0.200	0
	Mantecan As Fan	7	2	N/E	0.036	0
100	Dalesman	6	2	N/E	0.083	0
101	OptimistPrime	5	1	N/E	0.179	0
	tresselfan	5	5	N/E	0.017	0
103	JLaff	4	1	N/E	0.111	0
104	cuppingmaster	3	1	N/E	0.094	0
	Trainman	3	2	N/E	0.049	0
	Holy Toledo!	3	1	N/E	0.083	0
	scutaroknowstheway	3	1	N/E	0.071	0
108	captain flitzy	2	1	N/E	0.013	0
109	Steve in Napa	1	1	N/E	0.032	0
	Leopold Bloom	1	1	N/E	0.029	0
111	scatterbrian	0	1	N/E	0.000	0

Ok, anyone who has been watching the GOG standings during the season had a pretty good idea of who the top two would be. Congratulations to the 2009 GOG champion, nevermoor! But let's not forget zaniac75, who kept things exciting the whole way (and was in the lead for most of the first half). I thought that the double point potential of GOG #00 could have closed the gap, but these two were just way ahead of everyone else.

Actually, nevermoor wins the whole triple crown here. For most of the season, swatnick had command of the AVG category, but a poor showing on GOG #00 handed that one to nevermoor. Finally, I added a third category, in the far right hand column, that keeps track of the number of times a player won the GOG (you get the point whether or not your are tied for first). In this category as well, nevermoor is looking pretty dominant.

And here is one more plot for you all -- the final top 10, tracked across the whole 2009 GOG season.

GOG Awards

Before we get to the end of season awards, I want to thank the people who helped me keep up with the GOG this season. That would be nevermoor, who wrote a couple of them himself when I was on vacation, and doctorK and micdog2001, who looked up all the answers for me several times when I fell behind on grading. I thought this was a fun way to follow the A's season (particularly in a year when we needed some distraction from their record). Next year? We'll see...

The Jimmie Foxx Award for Domination goes to nevermoor, of course. I said enough about his record above.
The Campy Campaneris Award for Perfect Attendance goes to doctorK. I don't know what inspires such dedication to the GOG, but I appreciate it.
The Rich Harden Award for Domination in a Small Sample goes to FormerHuntsvilleStar. I didn't have the win count statistic before, so I hadn't noticed this, but FHS posted entries for only 12 GOG, but managed to win 4 of those!
The ??? Award for a Promising Career Over Too Soon goes to mikeA, who managed to hang on to a spot in the top ten even though he stopped playing around GOG #35. When he dropped out, the race for the title went from three players to just two. (I can't think of an Athletic to name this award after -- Duchscherer maybe? It's still too soon to tell with him.)

Ok, that's it. It's high time for me to stop spending so much time on baseball-reference and fangraphs. Enjoy the offseason!

DLD 10/15/09 - The Decline of AN Civilization

colin — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 16:28:16 -0000

Because not having a DLD is barbaric...

Actually, the title references Penelope Spheeris' 1981 documentary about the Los Angeles punk scene. This was on my mind because of the death of Brendan Mullen earlier this week. Mullen founded The Masque, a club and rehearsal space in Hollywood that was the center of the first wave of LA punk bands. This is a link dump, so I will pass along a selection of the finest bands to come from the Masque scene.

The Germs -- Lexicon Devil (live footage)
The Alley Cats -- Nothing Means Nothing Anymore (live footage)
The Bags -- Babylonian Gorgon (sorry, it's just audio, but the fact that this is like the best song ever should partially make up for it)
The Middle Class -- Home Is Where (again, no video)
The Weirdos -- We Got the Neutron Bomb (live footage)

But it's good to have some baseball links as well...

The Hardball Times takes a look at some top prospects who played in the Southern and Texas leagues this last year. I'll let you guess who they are describing with this quote: "his power was every bit as devastating as advertised".
Also from Hardball Times, a thorough look at the Venezuelan Patrol Craft. A friend of mine, who is a Rockies fan, is pretty unhappy with Oakland right now, on account of Huston Street's meltdown, but he really can't say anything bad about another part of the Holliday deal.

Dump away!

GOG 2009 #52

colin — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:48:50 -0000

The season is coming to an end and, after yet another sweep at the hands of the Mariners, it just can't come soon enough.

But, before we move on to prospect rankings, hot stoves, or (gasp) subjects other than baseball, there are two small matters left. First, our record against LAAAAAA sits currently at 7-9. They may have the division all wrapped up, but they haven't clinched the season series yet. Now is the time where the Athletics will stand up against their hated rivals, send forth their champions, and fight their way by victory. Of course, when I say champions, I mean Dana Eveland and Edgar Gonzalez, so this might not be as epic as I am hoping for.

The second small matter? Oh yeah, that's the GOG!

Links

Probable pitchers
Angels stats
Based on the poll results in GOG #51, this is going to be the last GOG of 2009. Of course, I'm a bit behind on my grading and the GOG #00 results are still to be tallied, so the race is still wide open (remember that GOG #00 questions count double, so there is a potential for 75 points right there). Anyway, keep your eyes open for a special GOG #00 results fANpost, complete with pretty plots, plus the end of the season recap and final standings!

GOG #52 :: The Very Last One (32 points possible)

Three game series vs Los Angeles Angels -- October 2-4

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 3-0 Angels
This series marks the first time when Scott Kazmir will face the A's as a hated Angel, rather than a lovable Ray. Predict his IP/ER/K [2 points each] 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Dana Eveland's lifetime ERA against the Angels currently sits at a hellish 6.66 (19 ER in 25 and two-thirds). Does he improve that mark in his Saturday start, or does he decline further into pitching purgatory? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Dana allowed 4 ER in 4.2 innings, so he actually managed to increase his ERA vs the Angels to 6.82
In (hopefully) his last series as an Athletics, predict Bobby Crosby's AB/H/RBI [2 points each] 5 AB, 2 H, 0 RBI
Chone Figgins has been leading the way for the Angels this season, and leading his own way to a big fat free agent contract, with a spectacular 6.1 Wins Above Replacement. He has been good at everything (well, except for hitting for power), with a .300 batting average, league leading 101 walks, 42 stolen bases, and excellent defense at third base. How many times will Chone reach base against Oakland? [3 points] Figgins reached base only twice
Making a final RoY push, does Andrew Bailey earn a save in the series? Does he allow any earned runs? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] no save, no earned runs (in 2 innings)
For the 2009 season, the A's and Angels have very similar team UZR, both slightly better than average. However, the two teams save their runs in very different ways. The A's have a pretty nice range score, thanks mostly to Rajai Davis, Ryan Sweeney, and Matt Holliday. The Angels outfield of Rivera, Hunter, and Abreu just doesn't have those kind of legs. On the other hand, the A's UZR is cut down by errors and missing double plays, thanks to an infield that has had a heavy dose of Adam Kennedy (often playing out of position at third), Bobby Crosby (ditto), and an uncharacteristicly bad half-season with the glove from Orlando Cabrera. For the series, which team commits more errors? Which team turns more double plays? Which team records more outfield putouts? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Both teams tied, with 1 error apiece. LAAAA turned 7 double plays to Oakland's 3. Oakland outfielders made more putouts, 19 to 15.
In 2008, the three Oakland relievers with the most innings pitched were Street, Embree, and Ziegler, who combined for 191.1 total. With three games left to play, this year's top three (Bailey, Wuertz, and Ziegler) have thrown a whopping 230.1 innings! How many IP for that ace trio in this series? [3 points] 5 innings total (2 for Bailey, 1 for Wuertz, 2 for Ziggy)
Perhaps it is appropriate that the last game of the 2009 season starts with Edgar Gonzalez on the mound. Will he manage to post a game score of at least 50 (which roughly corresponds to a quality start)? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Dropped this question, since Edgar didn't start
Taking a small detour to the one bit of pennant race excitement -- If the Twins win all three of their remaining games (against the Royals) *and* the Tigers lose their three games (against the White Sox), then Minnesota wins the AL Central outright. If the Twins lose one game *or* the Tigers win one, then they will finish in a tie, leading to a one game playoff on Tuesday. Do either of these two scenarios occur? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] yes
Who wins GOG #52, before this question is taken into account? [3 points] zaniac75

The series kicks off with my man Gio on the mound, at 7:05 pm. Don't miss your last chance to GOG!

Results

Well, this was a nice hard one to finish off the season. Don't feel bad if your score was low.

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 1.61538 points
standard deviation = 3.12353 points
mode = 2 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Congratulations to zaniac75 for winning GOG #52. However, nevermoor turned in the next best score, so he's still got a strong grip on first place. Of course, there are a lot of points up for grabs with GOG #00 still to be graded. The suspense is killing me! (but not enough to make me actually, you know, go and grade those results)

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
zaniac75	1	7	50	2	360	5	0.223
nevermoor	2	5	47	1	374	2	0.245
Angry Sean	3	4	46	9	248	20	0.166
easyraider		4	21	19	143	7	0.205
Rated-R Superstar	5	3	46	3	316	6	0.216
micdog2001	6	2	43	5	285	8	0.205
doctorK		2	52	7	270	22	0.161
mikev		2	2	58	19	N/E	0.292
colin	9	0	50	6	281	18	0.175
fruitattack		0	12	48	31	N/E	0.079
streetfan	11	-2	47	13	217	23	0.142
stranahanahan		-2	16	33	78	N/E	0.159
JLeverenz	13	-4	33	15	214	9	0.202
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	96	1	N/E	0.024
swatnick	DNP	--	30	8	252	1	0.263
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	26	112	N/E	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	N/E	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	35	12	226	11	0.195
mikeA	DNP	--	31	11	232	4	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	25	116	16	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	24	117	N/E	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	20	131	12	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	13	217	17	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	N/E	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	96	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	21	126	10	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	27	110	N/E	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	19	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	37	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	34	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	16	206	14	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	38	59	N/E	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	39	4	290	3	0.230
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	100	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	35	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	65	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	62	18	N/E	0.173
muffinpryde	DNP	--	43	10	247	15	0.177
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	65	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	62	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
adragon	DNP	--	32	17	167	21	0.161
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	36	68	24	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	38	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	21	126	N/E	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	96	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	62	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	21	126	13	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	65	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	96	1	N/E	0.032
cuppingmaster	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.094

Miguel Angel Sano signs with Minnesota

colin — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 18:48:23 -0000

Miguel Angel Sano signs with Minnesota

There was a lot of enthusiasm about this guy on AN earlier this year. His signing bonus is the largest ever to a position player from Latin America (except Cuba), but it's not as much as the A's gave to Ynoa.

GOG 2009 #51

colin — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 20:30:53 -0000

The time has come to buckle down! As of right now, the A's have 81 games in the loss column, meaning they need to win out to reach .500 for the season. Unfortunately, the green and gold is up against the Mariners, who have dominated Oakland to the tune of a .313 winning percentage. But those were the "Matt Holliday is a .200 hitter" A's of April, the "we just realized that maybe we should send Dana Eveland to AAA" A's of May, and the "getting rid of some dead weight" A's of August. Now the Mariners are up against the "Rajai Davis is Superman, and Eric Patterson is probably Batman or something" A's of late September, so do they even have a chance?

I've developed a bit of a Pavlovian response to Mariners series this season -- basically I just curl up in a ball for 3-4 games and try not to turn on the tv. So, despite the strong play that we've been seeing lately from Oakland, my highest hopes for the next three days are pretty much just that I don't catch swine flu.

GOG #51 :: The Penultimate (32 points possible)

Three game series @ Seattle Mariners -- September 29-October 1

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 3-0 Seattle
Tuesday is Felix Day! He's leading the Cy Young race for the "AL pitchers not named Zach" category. Predict IP/ER/K for the King [2 points each] 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
With Hairston out, Eric Patterson has started the last six games and put up a batting line of .474/.600/.684 with 3 stolen bases to 1 caught stealing. Can he stay hot against the Mariners? Predict his AB/H/SB [2 points each] 9 AB, 4 H, 0 SB
In his last start at Safeco field, Brett Anderson tossed an easy seven innings, striking out 8 while allowing only one run. How many innings will he last in his upcoming start? [3 points] 5 IP
Kurt Suzuki has been the seventh hardest player to strike out in the AL this season (for some reason this category contains a lot of second basement, with Polanco, Pedroia, and Callaspo in spots 1, 2, and 3). How many times does Zook strike out against Seattle pitching? [3 points] 1 strikeout
Shawn Kelley is suffering from some flyballing tendencies and the large HR rate that goes along with it, but he has struck out 4.88 hitters for every one that he has walked, which puts him fourth among AL pitchers with at least 30 IP (you may have heard of the dudes in the 1 and 2 spots -- Roy Halladay and Mariano Rivera). As Lookout Landing Jeff points out, this is a pretty good skill set for a middle reliever. How many walks and strikeouts for Kelley against the A's? [2 points each] 0 BB, 2 K (in 1 inning pitched)
As a team, Seattle has the lowest walk rate in the American League at 7.2%. What is the Mariners' largest single game walk total in the series? [3 points] Seattle walked twice in game one; they only walked once in each of the other two games
For the series, who posts a higher Batting Average on Balls In Play, Ichiro (currently at .382 for the year) or Rajai (currently at .368)? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Ichiro
How many double plays do the A's hit into (includes the strike out/caught stealing type)? [3 points] Oakland hits into two double plays

Series starts at 7:10 pm. It's Felix day, so we all should just hide in a basement somewhere.

Results

High scores on this one. Will you all keep it up for the very last GOG?

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 7.33333 points
standard deviation = 2.52605 points
mode = 7 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

Congratulations to nevermoor for winning GOG 51. Looks like he's not going to let up at the end of the season, so zaniac75 and RRS have their work cut out for them. Also, hey cuppingmaster! Welcome to the GOG!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
nevermoor	1	12	46	1	369	2	0.247
JLeverenz	2	10	32	14	218	7	0.212
streetfan		10	46	13	219	23	0.146
easyraider		10	20	19	139	8	0.209
muffinpryde	5	9	43	9	247	16	0.177
Rated-R Superstar	6	8	45	3	313	6	0.219
swatnick	7	7	30	8	252	1	0.263
micdog2001		7	42	5	283	9	0.208
colin		7	49	6	281	15	0.178
A'sfaninNC		7	39	4	290	3	0.230
stranahanahan	11	6	15	33	80	N/E	0.174
zaniac75	12	5	49	2	353	5	0.223
doctorK		5	51	7	268	21	0.163
GoAs	14	4	35	12	226	11	0.195
cuppingmaster	15	3	1	92	3	N/E	0.094
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	96	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	26	112	N/E	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	N/E	0.158
mikeA	DNP	--	31	11	232	4	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	25	116	17	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	24	117	N/E	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	20	131	12	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	15	217	18	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	N/E	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	96	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	21	126	10	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	27	110	N/E	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	19	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	37	60	N/E	0.174
Angry Sean	DNP	--	45	10	244	20	0.167
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	34	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	16	206	14	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	38	59	N/E	0.199
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	100	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	35	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
adragon	DNP	--	32	17	167	22	0.161
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	36	68	24	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	38	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	21	126	N/E	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	96	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	21	126	13	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	96	1	N/E	0.032

Poll

Should we have GOGs for the postseason series?

No way! I GOG for the A's only!

5 votes

No way! We need to make sure that no one has a chance at catching nevermoor!

2 votes

Yes, one each for the division series, championship series, and world series

2 votes

Yes, separate GOGs for every postseason series and colin's thesis can just just go to hell

2 votes

This option to FIRE GEREN NOW has been automatically appended to your poll by AN 3.0. Have a nice day!

0 votes

11 votes | Poll has closed

GOG 2009 #50

colin — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:30:38 -0000

It's the 50th GOG of the season! Thinking back to late April, where did we all think that we would be at this point? If I take a look here, I see that roughly 90% of us thought that these last series against the Angels would be a meaningful part of the division race.

Now, some might say that the A's have been playing like a playoff team over the last month or so. I would just like to point out that, for this series, one team is starting Jered Weaver, John Lackey, and Joe Saunders while the other team is starting Gio Gonzalez, Dana Eveland, and Edgar Gonzalez. I think that I can pick the playoff team out of that lineup. Putting aside some justifiable pessimism, I'll just focus on the A's offense, which has definitely been clicking lately, and the remarkable job that the bullpen has done. The race is still on to determine whether Oakland or LAAAAAAA will finish with more wins for the decade. So let's go A's!

GOG #50 :: Last Rats of the Season (32 points possible)

Three game series @ Los Angeles Angels -- September 25-27

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-1 Oakland
Rank the three Angels starters (Weaver, Lackey, and Saunders) by pitcher game score, best to worst [2 points for each correct position] Weaver (50), Saunders (48), Lackey (24)
In their most recent starts, Gio, Dana, and Edgar pitched only 3.2, 5, and 3.1 innings, respectively. How many total innings for the A's starting pitchers against the second best offense in baseball? [3 points] 14.2 IP
In 351 career plate appearances against Oakland, Vlad Guerrero has been held to a mere .884 OPS (compare to an American League career value of .930). Predict his AB/H/TB for the series [2 points each] 12 AB, 1 H, 1 TB
Jack Cust is currently tied with Scutaro for fourth in the AL with 90 bases on balls (Figgins is first, followed by Abreu and Bay). How many walks does Cust draw in this series? [3 points] only one BB for Spartacust
About a week ago, Mike Scioscia said that he was considering giving some save opportunities to Kevin Jepsen. This hasn't happened yet, and Fuentes continues to lead the AL in saves (currently tied with Joe Nathan). Jepsen has been the much better pitcher this season, despite having a nearly identical ERA to Fuentes. They have the same strikeout rate, but Jepsen walks fewer hitters, keeps the ball on the ground, and allows far fewer HR. By WAR, Jepsen has been a full win better than Fuentes this season. Of these two relievers, who has the lower ERA for the series? Who allows the fewest hits per inning? Who has the lowest walks allowed per inning? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Jepsen posted a 21.60 ERA, allowing 1.8 hits and 1.2 walks per IP (1.2 innings total) while Fuentes pitched 1 inning and allowed no runs, 1 hit, no walks... so Fuentes wins in all three categories
Of the five projections systems displayed on fangraphs (Bill James, CHONE, Marcel the monkey, Oliver, and ZiPS) expectations for Erick Aybar's OPS this season ranged from .660 to .701. The fact that he is currently OPSing .761 while playing good defense at shortstop is another reason why I hate the Angels. ZiPS is still not impressed, projecting him to put up a .655 OPS for the rest of this season. Guess whether Aybar has an OPS of above or below .700 for the series [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Aybar OPSed .946 for the series, which is decidedly above .700
Win Probability Added values for relief pitchers can fly all over the place, thanks to high leverage situations near the end of close games. Which Oakland reliever has the best WPA for this series? [3 points] Wuertz has the most WPA, with +.113
Oakland hitters have received only 16 intentional walks, fewer than any other team in baseball. Do the Angels choose to put any Athletic on first for free? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] nope
How many games in the series are decided by 3 runs or fewer? [3 points] 2 (games 1 and 3)

Jered Weaver kicks things off at 7:05 sharp. Go Oakland!

Results

After grading the first few questions, I thought that Angry Sean had a shot at a perfect score. It didn't work out, but he still did well. So did a couple other people.

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 5.42857 points
standard deviation = 4.21927 points
mode = 3, 5, or 12 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

The winners for GOG 50 are swatnick and Angry Sean! Those two plus JLeverenz were pretty much head and shoulders above everyone else on this one. Also, I would be remiss not to note that JLeverenz crossed the 200 point mark and Rated-R Superstar passed 300 points!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
swatnick	1	12	29	8	245	1	0.264
Angry Sean		12	45	9	244	23	0.167
JLeverenz	3	11	31	15	208	8	0.209
Rated-R Superstar	4	8	44	3	305	7	0.218
micdog2001	5	7	41	5	276	9	0.208
muffinpryde	6	6	42	10	238	21	0.174
colin	7	5	48	6	274	18	0.177
stranahanahan		5	14	33	74	N/E	0.173
streetfan	9	4	45	14	209	27	0.142
nevermoor	10	3	45	1	357	2	0.244
easyraider		3	19	20	129	10	0.204
zaniac75	12	1	48	2	348	5	0.225
adragon	13	0	32	17	167	25	0.161
doctorK	14	-1	50	7	263	24	0.163
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	26	112	N/E	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	26	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	34	12	222	14	0.197
mikeA	DNP	--	31	11	232	4	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	25	116	19	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	24	117	6	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	15	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	13	217	20	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	11	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	21	126	13	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	27	110	12	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	22	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	37	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	34	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	16	206	17	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	38	59	N/E	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	38	4	283	3	0.231
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	35	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	36	68	28	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	38	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	21	126	N/E	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	21	126	16	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #49

colin — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 16:06:36 -0000

Sorry, but life has been throwing me curveballs lately, so this is going to be a short GOG. Hopefully this series will turn out like the last two, right?

GOG #49 :: Ranger Revenge? (21 points possible)

Four game series vs Texas Rangers -- September 21-24

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-2 split
Though Brad Ziegler doesn't have the same magic as he did last season, when he set the record for consecutive scoreless innings to start a major league career, he has actually been a better pitcher. The groundballs are still there, and the ridiculously low HR rate to go with it, plus he is striking out more hitters while walking fewer. The fact that his ERA is up to 3.15 in 2009 can be explained by his BABIP, which went from .246 in 2008 to .355 in 2009. And that is really a comment on Oakland's infield defense (and a dash of luck), not anything wrong with Ziggy. Predict his IP/K/BB for these four games [2 points each] 2.1 IP, 2 K, 3 BB
Ian Kinsler is proving himself to be a star player, with his second consecutive season at 4 WAR. Comparing this year to the last one, there are some significant differences, however. His BABIP is way way down, falling from .339 in 2008 to .246 this year. Ordinarily we might chalk that all up to bad luck (and I'm sure there is some luck component in there), but part of it seems to be a real change. While Kinsler's HR per fly ball ratio is up a bit this year, the main reason that he is about to break the 30 HR mark is because he is hitting a lot more fly balls than he did in the past. His fly ball rate is up from his previous norm of 43-45% to almost 55%, and the batted ball category that has declined is line drives. A big reduction in the number of line drives he is hitting surely accounts for part of the drop in BABIP, and his batting line has suffered as a result. It will be interesting to see if this is a one year fluctuation, or if it really represents the new Ian Kinsler. Anyway, the question is to predict his hits, home runs, and line drives for the series [2 points each] 1 H, 0 HR, 1 line drive (for a game ending double play)
How many plate appearance for Travis Buck in the series? Does he record a hit? [3 points for the first question, +-1 for the second question] 6 plate appearances and he did get a hit
Which Gonzalez posts a better game score, Edgar or Gio? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Gio's start was moved back a day, so he didn't pitch and this question doesn't count. But even Gio could have probably done better than Edgar Gonzalez's game score of 21.
As a team, the Rangers have almost identical numbers hitting against righties (.770 OPS) and lefties (.771 OPS). In this series, do they score more runs against the A's righties or lefties (counting starters and relievers)? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Waaaay more runs scored off of right handed pitchers, which isn't surprising because the righties threw waaaay more innings.

Game 1 starts at 7:05 pm. Don't swing and miss!

Results

Just catching up on some grading...

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 4.41667 points
standard deviation = 3.17543 points
mode = 5 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

The big winner is Rated-R Superstar! The big loser? That would be me.

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
Rated-R Superstar	1	10	43	3	297	7	0.218
swatnick	2	9	28	8	233	1	0.260
muffinpryde	3	6	41	9	232	21	0.174
streetfan	4	5	44	15	205	27	0.143
nevermoor		5	44	1	354	2	0.248
easyraider		5	18	20	126	8	0.210
zaniac75	7	4	47	2	347	4	0.229
Angry Sean		4	44	9	232	25	0.162
doctorK	9	3	49	7	264	23	0.167
micdog2001	10	2	40	5	269	9	0.208
stranahanahan		2	13	35	69	N/E	0.175
colin	12	-2	47	5	269	18	0.178
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	26	112	N/E	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	26	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	34	12	222	14	0.197
mikeA	DNP	--	31	9	232	5	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	25	116	19	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	24	117	6	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	15	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	13	217	20	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	11	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
JLeverenz	DNP	--	30	16	197	10	0.205
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	20	126	13	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	27	110	12	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	22	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	37	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	14	206	17	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	38	59	N/E	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	38	4	283	3	0.231
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
adragon	DNP	--	31	17	167	24	0.166
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	36	68	28	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	38	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	20	126	N/E	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	20	126	16	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #48

colin — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 19:08:48 -0000

I must have seen the future because the title of the last GOG was "Ruin The Rangers", and the Athletics definitely just did that to any hopes that Texas has of making the playoffs. Of course, in my actual GOG entry I had Texas winning the series 2-1, so maybe claims of psychic ability should be taken with a grain of salt.

Starting today, the A's, with the worst home game attendance in the AL, will host the sorry Cleveland Indians (second worst home attendance in AL, 17 games behind the Tigers in the AL Central), in what is sure to be a crowd-pleasing four game series. September baseball can sometimes be full of tension and gut-wrenching ups and downs, but this series probably won't be that. So really it all comes down to the GOG race then!

GOG #48 :: Exciting Pennant Races! (34 points possible)

Four game series vs Cleveland Indians -- September 17-20

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 4-0 Oakland!!
For people who are scratching their heads over how Fausto Carmona went from being awesome in 2007 to being horrible for the last two seasons, I give you the following three numbers -- 2.55, 5.22, 5.57. Those are his BB/9 rates for the last three seasons. The 2007 figure of 2.55 is pretty good but since then he his control has been unspeakably awful. Predict Carmona's IP/BB/ER against Oakland [2 points each] 5.2 IP, 1 BB, 8 ER
It seems like every fANpost that mentions Rajai Davis gets like a million comments, so I am definitely including him in this GOG. How many times on base for Raj? [3 points] 7 times on base
Justin Masterson was traded to Cleveland as part of the package for Victor Martinez and he has shown some troubling signs as a starter for the Indians (he was mostly pitching out of the bullpen for Boston). He is still doing a good job at getting ground balls and avoiding the home run (actually, he is doing a ridiculously good job at avoiding home runs, but some of that is definitely luck and small samples), but his strikeout rate has dropped and his walks are up into Carmona territory. Maybe he's a case of a sinker/slider guy who doesn't have enough variety in his repetoire to succeed as a starter, but the Indians will surely give him more of a chance to prove himself. How many Oakland hitters does Masterson walk in his game 1 start? [3 points] 4 BB for Masterson
How many starts for Landon Powell, at catcher or elsewhere? Does he hit a home run in the series? [3 points for the first question, +-1 for the second question] 1 start, no HR
Travis Hafner hasn't been able to stay healthy this season, but he has been a decent hitter when he plays (not like his monster years of 2004-2006, but also not like his below replacement performance last season). How many plate appearances for Pronk? [3 points] 13 PA for Hafner
September call-up Michael Brantley has a big job in trying to fill Sizemore's shoes. So far he is hitting .328, but with few walks and pretty much zero power. Predict his H/SB/CS for the series [2 points each] 6 H, 0 SB, 2 CS
The 2009 Cleveland bullpen is almost bad enough to make fans long for the days of Joe Borowski. Their relievers have a combined ERA that is third worst in the AL, ahead of only Kansas City and Baltimore (and if you go by FIP, then Cleveland is second worst in all MLB, ahead of the Nationals). How many runs to the A's score against this bullpen of horrors? [3 points] 3 ER off the Cleveland bullpen
Mortensen (1-2), Anderson (9-10), and Gonzalez(5-6) all have the opportunity to even their records at .500 with a win. Which of these three young starters manages to do it? [+1 for each right, -1 for each wrong] Mortensen and Anderson pick up wins, Gio does not

The series starts up at 7:05 pm, so post your entries...

Results

That was another nice series, eh?

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 6.92857 points
standard deviation = 4.15959 points
mode = 8 or 10 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

I don't have a whole lot to say today, except congratulations easyraider and stranahanahan!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
easyraider	1	11	17	23	121	9	0.209
stranahanahan		11	12	36	67	N/E	0.179
zaniac75	3	10	46	2	343	4	0.229
Angry Sean		10	43	9	228	25	0.162
nevermoor		10	43	1	349	2	0.248
doctorK	6	9	48	7	261	23	0.167
A'sfaninNC	7	8	38	4	283	3	0.231
muffinpryde		8	40	10	226	21	0.172
Rated-R Superstar		8	42	3	287	7	0.214
swatnick	10	7	27	11	224	1	0.256
adragon	11	5	31	17	167	24	0.166
streetfan	12	2	43	15	200	27	0.141
colin	13	0	46	5	271	17	0.182
JLeverenz	14	-2	30	16	197	10	0.205
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	26	112	N/E	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	26	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	34	12	222	14	0.197
mikeA	DNP	--	31	8	232	5	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	25	116	19	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	24	117	6	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	15	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	13	217	20	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	11	0.202
micdog2001	DNP	--	39	6	267	8	0.210
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	20	126	13	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	27	110	12	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	22	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	37	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	14	206	18	0.179
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	38	59	N/E	0.199
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	28	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	38	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	20	126	N/E	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	20	126	16	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #47

colin — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:31:11 -0000

Heading into today's game, the Athletics record against the Texas Rangers sits an even 6-6. This three game set, plus a four game series next week in Oakland, will make the difference between having to acknowledge that the Rangers were just a flat out better team than Oakland this year, or being able to cling to a winning head-to-head record. On top of that, Texas is still hanging on to the wild card race, four games behind Boston. Let the spoiling begin!

GOG #47 :: Ruin the Rangers! (32 points possible)

Three game series @ Texas Rangers -- September 14-16

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 3-0 Oakland!!
In Scott Feldman, have the Rangers finally found a pitcher who can succeed in Arlington? The traditional (read: crappy) metrics say yes -- he has gone 16-4 with a 3.10 ERA in 26 starts this season. The more advanced metrics are not really convinced. Only 5.22 K/9 is pretty bad, especially when your BB/9 is a non-spectacular 2.97. The things he has going for him are a decent ground ball rate, leading to a low but maybe not too fluky HR/9 of 0.82, and a BABIP of .266, which means that he probably owes a lot of his success to the Rangers improved infield. Predict Feldman's IP, ER, and groundball outs for the series [2 points each] 6.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 groundball outs
Cliff Pennington is riding a hot streak to respectability (after the last four years, did you ever think you would see an Oakland shortstop with an OBP near .350?!?). Predict his PA/H/BB for the series [2 points each] 13 PA, 5 H, 0 BB
Coming off his best start (err... only good start?), how many innings will Mortensen last? [3 points] the rotation got shuffled around, so Mortensen did not pitch... Edgar Gonzalez got that start instead
Since being promoted in early August, Julio Borbon has been swinging a very hot bat, with a line of .333/.389/.494. Even though he's a fast guy who puts the ball on the ground, it's pretty unlikely that he can maintain that .386 BABIP (or an ISO of .161, which is practically double his career minor league number). He can really steal a base though. How many SB for Borbon in the series? Does he get caught stealing? [3 points for the first question, +-1 for the second] 0 SB, no CS
You all probably remember Neftali Feliz's major league debut against the A's on August 3. He came in to relieve Dustin Nippert at the start of the 6th inning and proceeded to strike out Kennedy, Suzuki, Hairston, and Cust for his first four outs, en route to pitching two perfect innings. He didn't fare quite as well two days later, giving up a two-run HR to Adam Kennedy (only one run charged to Feliz, since he inherited a runner), but he still managed to get a couple more Ks (Suzuki and Harston again). How many strikeouts for Feliz in this series? [3 points] Feliz pitched just one inning and recorded 3 more strikeouts... but he also allowed 2 hits, 2 walks, and was charged with 2 ER
RoY face-off!! Who contributes more Win Probability Added, Andrus or Bailey? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] Bailey wins, +.045 to -.032
We can hope that Blevins has returned to his 2008 form, instead of the lousy pitching we saw early in the season. The numbers since his call up are great -- 6 K, 0 BB, and 1 ER in 6.1 IP. But let's be realistic, he has come into just six games, against the Royals, White Sox, and Twins. Facing the Rangers in Arlington might be a tougher test for Jerry. Predict Blevins' IP and ER against the Rangers [2 points each] 0.1 IP, 0 ER
Does Eric Munson see any playing time? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] no
Will any of the games be decided by only 1 run? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] no

Game one kicks off at 5:05 pacific. Make sure you post your guesses before then...

Results

Well that was a very satisfying series. Now let's see if we all got satisfying GOG scores.

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 5.66667 points
standard deviation = 2.39792 points
mode = 4 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

And the winners for GOG #47 are... streetfan and easyraider! zaniac75 has pulled to within 6 points of nevermoor (who announced his return below), so we might have a tight race down the stretch for the last few series out the year!

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
streetfan	1	9	42	16	198	29	0.143
easyraider		9	16	26	110	13	0.202
colin	3	7	45	5	271	18	0.186
swatnick	4	6	26	12	217	1	0.258
Angry Sean		6	42	10	218	27	0.159
zaniac75	6	4	45	2	333	5	0.228
micdog2001		4	39	6	267	11	0.210
Rated-R Superstar		4	41	3	279	10	0.213
doctorK	9	2	47	7	252	26	0.165
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	25	112	7	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	28	0.158
GoAs	DNP	--	34	9	222	16	0.197
mikeA	DNP	--	31	8	232	6	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	24	116	21	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	23	117	8	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	17	0.189
oblique	DNP	--	38	12	217	22	0.176
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	28	106	12	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
JLeverenz	DNP	--	29	15	199	9	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	29	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	20	126	15	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	26	110	14	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	24	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	36	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	14	206	20	0.179
nevermoor	DNP	--	42	1	339	3	0.247
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	37	59	N/E	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	37	4	275	4	0.231
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
muffinpryde	DNP	--	39	10	218	23	0.171
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
adragon	DNP	--	30	17	162	25	0.167
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	30	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	37	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	20	126	2	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
stranahanahan	DNP	--	11	39	56	N/E	0.165
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	20	126	19	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032

GOG 2009 #46

colin — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:44:28 -0000

While this series might not look like much at first glance -- the Twins trail Detroit by 5.5 games with 22 left to play -- there is one very significant milestone here. After Sunday's series finale, the A's will never have to play another game in the Metrodome!

Ahh, the Metrodome, a true turd among the few crappy multi-use facilities that still host major league teams. I suppose that it has worked out all right for the Twins, as they consistently post winning records at home. After the Cardinals lost the 1987 World Series to the Twins, manager Whitey Herzog complained "I don't think there ever was more of a home-field advantage in the history of baseball."

The last time that Oakland won a series at the Metrodome was in August of 2005, and then they made up for it by losing 9 of 10 games at the Metrodome between the 2006 and 2007 series. For every game like this, it seems like there have been a whole lot more like this. So let's just say that I won't be shedding many tears when the place gets torn down.

GOG #46 :: Good Riddance to the Metrodome (32 points possible)

Three game series @ Minnesota Twins -- September 11-13

UPDATE -- answers added below in bold

Series outcome [3 points] 2-1 Oakland
Mauer for MVP! Predict his H/XBH/BB [2 points each] 5 H, 3 XBH, 1 BB
Since that crazy game where he gave up 11 runs in 2.2 innings, Gio has been a much improved pitcher, with a 3.93 ERA and 55 strikeouts over 52.2 innings (nine starts). Of course, that crazy 11 run start was also against Minnesota. Predict Gio's IP/K/ER this time around [2 points each] not so great -- 3 IP, 5 K, 7 ER
Old shortstop vs new shortstop :: Who reaches base more times in the series, Cabrera or Pennington? Who records more assists? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Pennington got on base more times (7 to 2), Cabrera had more assists (7 to 6)
I don't really think that Jason Kubel reads fangraphs, but maybe he took it personally when Dave Cameron questioned the contract he signed with Minnesota and pointed out that Kubel has been an extremely replaceable 0.5 to 1 win player. Kubel's response has been to post career bests in pretty much any hitting stat you can imagine and putting himself into a tie with Adam Lind for the highest wOBA among designated hitters. Predict Kubel's total bases for the series (on hits only) [3 points] only 1 total base (in 2 games played)
For people excited about Andrew Bailey's potential, one nice thing to see is how closely his profile matches that of Minnesota relief ace Joe Nathan. While Bailey's strikeout rate is quite as lofty as Nathan's (who leads the league in K/9), they have similarly great WHIPs (0.94 for Bailey, 0.92 for Nathan) and the strand rates to go along with that (84% vs 85%). The similarities continue when you look at the pitches they throw. Both Bailey and Nathan work off a hard fastball (both throw the fastball around 58% of the time and sit around 94 mph) and feature a hard breaking ball (cut fastball for Bailey, slider for Nathan) as their secondary pitch. Joe Nathan has been worth 2-3 wins above replacement every year since 2004; if the A's get anything like that from Andrew Bailey, then he will be an anchor in the bullpen for a long time. Finally, getting to the question, between the A's and Twins closers, who posts the best K/BB rate? The best WHIP? [+1 for each right answer, -1 for each wrong] Nathan's 1 K to 0 BB beats Bailey's 2 K to 1 BB. They each had WHIP of 1.
While it seems like the A's strike out about a million times per game, they are actually among the league leaders for the fewest strikeouts by hitters (among AL teams only the Orioles and Angels have fewer strikeouts). And, as usual, the Twins pitching staff is composed of a lot of strikeout and walk averse hurlers (fewest walks of any AL pitching staff, fourth fewest Ks... and Joe Nathan as the big exception with his 11.82 K/9). How many times do Oakland hitters strike out in this series? [3 points] A's hitter exceeded everyone's expectations with a whopping 28 strikeouts
Since being called up from Sacramento on September 1, Eveland has made only one appearance, pitching one inning against the Royals and allowing a run while striking out one and walking nobody. Will Dana get a chance to show his "stuff" against the Twins? [+1 if right, -1 if wrong] yep, 1 IP in game 1 and 2 IP in game 3 -- no earned runs!
Which hitter, for Oakland or Minnesota, racks up the most extra-base hits? [3 points] Mauer, with 3 XBH
Which starting pitcher, for Oakland or Minnesota, throws the most innings? [3 points] Brett Anderson and Brian Deunsing tie with 7 IP each

This is a central timezone series, so you need to get your entries posted by 5:10 pacific. Waste no time!

Results

Pretty good scores this time around. I guess I should have remembered to post an entry...

Overall scoring statistics

mean = 5.76923 points
standard deviation = 3.00427 points
mode = 8 points

via cfcp.uchicago.edu

Your Scores

The victory for GOG #46 goes to muffinpryde, who has been on a bit of a roll lately. Also, easyraider (who had the highest point total for the first season of GOG, back in 2005) has crossed the 100 point mark with just 15 GOG under his belt.

name	place (this GOG)	score (this GOG)	# of GOGs	place (all GOG)	score (all GOG)	place (by AVG)	score by AVG
muffinpryde	1	10	39	10	218	23	0.171
JLeverenz	2	8	29	15	199	10	0.214
Angry Sean		8	41	12	212	27	0.158
adragon		8	30	17	162	26	0.167
stranahanahan		8	11	39	56	N/E	0.165
GoAs	6	7	34	9	222	15	0.197
doctorK		7	46	7	250	25	0.167
zaniac75	8	5	44	2	329	5	0.230
micdog2001		5	38	6	263	11	0.212
oblique	10	4	38	11	217	22	0.176
Rated-R Superstar		4	40	3	275	9	0.215
easyraider	12	2	15	29	101	16	0.197
streetfan	13	-1	41	16	189	29	0.140
Mantecan As Fan	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.024
swatnick	DNP	--	25	13	211	1	0.261
SoCal As Fan	DNP	--	14	30	93	N/E	0.200
NateHST	DNP	--	15	25	112	7	0.225
DCinWC	DNP	--	16	32	84	28	0.158
mikeA	DNP	--	31	8	232	6	0.227
ZeroIndulgence	DNP	--	20	24	116	21	0.176
gigglingone	DNP	--	16	23	117	8	0.225
Kimberly	DNP	--	21	19	131	17	0.189
vegAN ryAN	DNP	--	4	52	27	N/E	0.185
diehardoaklandfan22	DNP	--	16	27	106	12	0.202
Walton711	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.214
travdog6	DNP	--	2	95	1	N/E	0.013
Boonee	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.174
RayJEdd	DNP	--	12	28	104	N/E	0.252
A'sBowlingLeague	DNP	--	2	58	19	N/E	0.244
elephantbaseball	DNP	--	19	20	126	14	0.200
brian.only	DNP	--	4	69	14	N/E	0.096
robertmelvin	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.188
OaktownPower	DNP	--	16	26	110	13	0.201
roscoe	DNP	--	29	18	161	24	0.168
Flashfire	DNP	--	1	88	6	N/E	0.143
designatedforassignment	DNP	--	3	68	16	N/E	0.145
tresselfan	DNP	--	4	85	7	N/E	0.046
KMoAsFan	DNP	--	4	57	20	N/E	0.137
colin	DNP	--	44	5	264	18	0.185
Gallagher's Watermelons	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.238
GreenOctober69	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.190
SLOtown	DNP	--	10	36	60	N/E	0.174
baseballnut020	DNP	--	9	41	51	N/E	0.173
MaineAthletic	DNP	--	12	33	73	N/E	0.187
j_rich36	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.167
scutaroknowstheway	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.071
train80	DNP	--	35	14	206	20	0.179
nevermoor	DNP	--	42	1	339	3	0.247
FormerHuntsvilleStar	DNP	--	11	31	88	N/E	0.251
jay_sensei	DNP	--	6	42	44	N/E	0.227
Athletix Man	DNP	--	9	37	59	N/E	0.199
A'sfaninNC	DNP	--	37	3	275	4	0.231
Athletics fan and runner	DNP	--	6	52	27	N/E	0.133
Holy Toledo!	DNP	--	1	92	3	N/E	0.083
Nico	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.278
EddieVegas_NRAF	DNP	--	1	99	-1	N/E	-0.028
JLaff	DNP	--	1	91	4	N/E	0.111
WaddellCanseco	DNP	--	5	51	28	N/E	0.164
crb29	DNP	--	11	34	70	N/E	0.196
eastcoasta'sfan	DNP	--	4	56	23	N/E	0.161
Oaktownflav	DNP	--	3	64	17	N/E	0.156
Future Ed	DNP	--	6	43	41	N/E	0.197
JediLeroy	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.222
Dalesman	DNP	--	2	88	6	N/E	0.083
nateh37	DNP	--	7	45	39	N/E	0.174
anomaly_kat	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.173
sprtsnwyn	DNP	--	2	64	17	N/E	0.250
VORP is too nerdy	DNP	--	4	47	32	N/E	0.234
asyouwish33	DNP	--	1	82	8	N/E	0.250
jeffro	DNP	--	4	61	18	N/E	0.150
Cutthemullet	DNP	--	3	55	24	N/E	0.238
stabbin_mcadams	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.312
jasonthea	DNP	--	4	49	30	N/E	0.219
fruitattack	DNP	--	11	48	31	N/E	0.086
Helloooo 1st	DNP	--	6	46	34	N/E	0.165
King Richard	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.203
jpl	DNP	--	8	40	55	N/E	0.222
baseballgirl	DNP	--	1	74	10	N/E	0.286
whiteshoes40	DNP	--	18	35	68	30	0.116
walkoff baltimore chop	DNP	--	1	85	7	N/E	0.200
spiffyjwc	DNP	--	2	71	13	N/E	0.194
samljm	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
pam5981	DNP	--	7	37	59	N/E	0.276
Gaijin_Suketto	DNP	--	1	69	14	N/E	0.424
harenshair	DNP	--	15	20	126	2	0.249
tosk	DNP	--	5	50	29	N/E	0.179
mikev	DNP	--	1	64	17	N/E	0.515
Leopold Bloom	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.029
ElQuesoCapitan	DNP	--	3	61	18	N/E	0.194
Trainman	DNP	--	2	92	3	N/E	0.049
OptimistPrime	DNP	--	1	90	5	N/E	0.179
dtownmbrown	DNP	--	4	54	25	N/E	0.182
Blicks	DNP	--	21	20	126	19	0.183
chillicothe20	DNP	--	1	78	9	N/E	0.265
ChadGod	DNP	--	1	71	13	N/E	0.382
SamYam	DNP	--	3	58	19	N/E	0.186
JLopez	DNP	--	4	78	9	N/E	0.069
robbo650	DNP	--	4	64	17	N/E	0.132
Steve in Napa	DNP	--	1	95	1	N/E	0.032