SB Nation User Blog: colintj

As Good As It Gets

colintj — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 21:28:00 -0000

Offering tribute to the correct deity, Alexei effectively obliterates Carlos Zambrano's weltanschauung as well as the pitch. Coincidentally, strong ennui with periodic nihilism has been forecast to persist on the North side of the city for some time. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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can't ask for much more than what we got today. likewise, you can't ask for much more than this post-game thread as far as i'm concerned.

We Got Us A Gamethread

colintj — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 18:09:52 -0000

way to go, other editors. way to go.

Converting OPS to wOBA

colintj — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 18:10:07 -0000

Does it get any more exciting than this? I bet not. Why write about this? OPS is used by everyone but Joe Morgan as shorthand representation for batter skill. wOBA, on the other hand, has no such following, as much as fangraphs has helped.

So what is wOBA? It's short for weighted On Base Average. It takes all possible batter outcomes (single, double, strikeout, etc.) and weights them according to their run value. The total number of runs is divided by plate appearances to give, in effect, runs per plate appearance. The final figure has been manipulated to an on base percentage scale where .340 is about average.

Using the standard approximation of 10 runs per 1 win, we can find the value of a batter's plate appearances. OPS was never designed with that in mind, but it turns out that wOBA and OPS correlate very very well.

The graph is the correlation of OPS to wOBA of 125 major league hitters over the last 3 calendar years, the data for which I nabbed from fangraphs. If you can't see, the r-squared value is 0.967 and the exact equation provided is

wOBA = 0.362*OPS+0.059

For ease of remembering, .36 and .06 are perfectly acceptable values. Plugging .340 for league average wOBA, we get that an average bat is about .775 OPS. 20 runs worse over the course of a season (600 PA), or about replacement level, is about .670. As long as we're talking about a fairly standard line (the regression had 3 consecutive seasons per batter, which significantly normalized batting lines), this conversion should not only be useful, but show perhaps that more advanced stats aren't getting us as far away from the hoi as we think.

On the other hand, that's an extremely high r-squared value, almost absurdly so. Perfect correlation is 1. Why so high? Power and on base percentage are dependent on each other. Pitchers tend to stay away from big sluggers, but don't mind busting weak hitters inside. So, there's a margin of error associated with avoiding the big bats. I would bet this holds particularly for those who mash fastballs. As support for this notion, I ran a second regression comparing ISO and BB% using the same data set and found an r-squared of .314, which is fairly robust. There are obviously skills involved outside of hitting for power that allow some to take more or fewer walks than opportunity allows, but there's a reason why you don't see any .300/.400/.400 hitters.

White Sox @ Reds Gamethread #1

colintj — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 23:09:49 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Best manager or bestest manager? (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Stony's flying solo!

Sox On Right Side Of One Run Game

colintj — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 00:31:45 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

His deal with Satan has paid off for the White Sox. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Annointed Scott Podsednik My Savior

Bullet Point Recap

As we know, Gavin Floyd has big hairy balls. His change is coming along nicely and he was usually able to get either of his slider or curve over. Tiger batters managed nothing but weak contact until he started fading in the 7th and 8th. Even then, he compensated by throwing strikes which kept the bases clear when the damage came.
The offense continues to underwhelm. Jackson walked more than he struck out in his 5 innings, but only Thome was able to make him pay. 4 runs was enough in the end, but that doesn't cut it in June. Cheat's talked up the problems hitting with RISP and no major league team is going to continue to suck quite that much. Hopefully tonight was the start of some reversion to a better mean. Like one where a quality start results in a win on a regular basis.
Bobby Jenks is clearly sinking his value in order to stay on the team he loves.
Defying all odds, Josh Fields was the biggest beneficiary of the aversion to strikes that plagued Detroit's hard throwers. Zumaya and Jackson walked him three times even though all they had to do was throw fastballs for strikes. That's been a problem for the Tigers all season and one of a few I'm sure Kenny noticed. There's been a lot of wailing amongst the SSS faithful with some even clamoring for a sell off amongst the commenterati. I'd say this is a justifiable feeling. The offense has been tough to watch. But it's not a viable course of action at this point. It shouldn't be that hard to beat mediocre and KW has enough assets to wheel and deal.
So it should be pretty fun to see what kind of direction Kenny takes the team. Which will be a relief after two months of blah baseball.

Playing With Matchups: A's @ Sox, 6/3/09

colintj — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

He's kinda weird lookin' for a young guy. He needs a porno stache, ya ask me. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

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Yet another starter the Sox have never seen. And a lefty no less. So this will go well, right?

Contrary to appearances, the White Sox do indeed have an advanced scouting department. In the very least, they appear to know enough to get their lefties the hell out of the lineup to the extent they can against Outman. Pods and Thome remain and at least the latter has shown he deserves a shot. He's shown a ton of power against LHP the last year or so, having refined his opposite field power stroke significantly. He's actually ISO'd more against lefties in his age 38 and 39 seasons than he had for his career against LHP. I guess that's a HoFer for you.

Pods...well, that probably won't go well. Outman blows average lefty hitters away, having struck out 26 of the 68 he's faced in his MLB career. He's got a deep enough arsenal between a curve, a slurvy slider and his plus fastball to take care of most LHB with ease. In the start I watched, it took him a little while to get his velo into his 91-93 plateau, but he completely wiped out Josh Hamilton without having to rely on the heater. As good as Thome is, he struggles against breaking balls in the zone. That will be Outman's challenge, as his command and control have been poor his entire career.

And against righties his control has been significantly worse, having walked about 10% of RHB over the course of his career. The slider and curve are mostly negated by the platoon swap and he has to rely on a fastball/change combo. I don't think his change is more than average and it's not a groundball-type fastball. Consequently, he's allowed a .276/.354/.444 line to RHB in his young careeer. If his command is solid and the change is playing up, he could shut down the righties, but that's been pretty rare for him over the course of his career. A night game could make it tough to get the ball out of the ballpark, but I saw the Rangers have success taking him to the opposite field with authority. If they adjust properly, it should be a pretty good matchup for the Sox tonight. They should have a serious advantage in power and free passes.

Why? Clayton Richard should be able to take two of Oakland's biggest bats out of play. Jack Cust and Jason Giambi both hit lefthanded and Clayton has been a serious jerk to lefties so far. For his career, he's given up a .260/.301/.339 slash line to lefties. Righties have mashed him, but other than Matt Holliday (who scares us all), the A's just don't have any really frightening RHB. The A's are going to have to hit doubles and take walks. As long as Richard limits the latter (especially in front of Holliday), he should have a solid outing.

The Cheese Stands Alone: Gamethread 2 Electric Boogaloo

colintj — Sun, 31 May 2009 19:33:26 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

John is concerned, sweep-wise. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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via cdn1.sbnation.com

SSS can has unexpected sweep?

Sox Win 5-3 In Grindy Fashion

colintj — Sun, 31 May 2009 02:30:54 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

I don't always grind. But when I grind, I prefer against KC. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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via www.fangraphs.com

Playing With Matchups: White Sox vs. Angels 5/25

colintj — Mon, 25 May 2009 19:32:43 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

If he's popping 94-95, we're probably screwed. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

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The Sox face off against Ervin Santana tonight in what will be his third start of the season. He's getting back from a sprained UCL, about which BP had the following to say in their Team Health Report series:

Santana is dealing with a sprained UCL, and while it's not enough to require surgery yet, he's not expected back until early June. Right now the plan is to let him rest, and hope that the ligament can scar up and allow Santana to pitch. Scar tissue is, at best, usually only about 70 percent as strong as the regular ligament, and though it's rare, if the scar tissue overlays the healthy ligament, he may be fine. This looks a lot like what happened to Francisco Liriano in '06 when he sprained the ligament, rested, and then it snapped in his first game back. The Angels will do everything they can to avoid that situation, but surgery may be inevitable. The timing couldn't be worse after Santana had busted out with a huge year in '08. Frustrated Angels fans everywhere may continue to wonder what the team's rotation would look like if it ever had Santana and Escobar healthy and productive at the same time.

Obviously he's back a bit early, but there are clearly questions about how he'll bounce back from his excellent '08 season. So far his velocity has been significantly lower than his 93+ mph career average. See, por ejemplo, his most recent start:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

I don't know anything about the pfx gun in Seattle, but he pitched there on 9/22/08 and was clearly a different pitcher:

It looks like a 3-5 mph difference or so. Last season he was one of the hardest throwing starters in the majors. He's shown about an average heater thus far in '09. That's a substantial change, particularly considering that he more or less abandoned two pitches in his repertoire in '08 (his change and curve). He did appear to throw a few changes in his latest start, but it seems to be mostly in line with the small number he threw in '08. Kalk's algorithm identified zero last season, so I have no idea how good a pitch it is. Presumably, if he ditched the pitch, it couldn't have been that effective.

He still gets significantly more rise than run on his fastball, similar to Octavio Dotel's in shape and velo, and he does have a good slider. Consequently, he should still be able to get whiffs from RHB. He will be more homer prone as what were previously lazy opposite field fly balls will get turned on, but as long as his slider isn't entirely a production of his fastball's velocity I doubt he'll struggle overly against righties.

LHB are a whole different story. For one, he had problems with ISO against his slider even in '08. This isn't uncommon. Backdoor sliders aren't especially effective and Santana liked to go down and in instead. Down and in just so happens to be most MLB hitters' wheelhouse. He still got whiffs, but also dealt a few gopher balls. With a less impressive fastball and a change he's unwilling to rely on, things are going to get dicey. Fewer K's mean more batted balls means more fly balls means more home runs. And he'll have a smaller margin of error, which will likely mean more walks too. Adapting rapidly to lesser stuff is a tall order and I can't imagine it's any easier knowing he's trying to stay off the DL.

Unfortunately, the Sox are not particularly well suited to capitalize on even a hobbled Santana. It's a righty-dominant lineup and it's main lefty masher is Jim Thome, who just so happens to struggle against all manner of breaking balls. Getz has no pop and Scott Podsednik makes me reach for my rusty screwdriver (BLAOW!), though AJ could do some damage. This would be a good time for some Betemit.

I don't want to sound overly pessimistic (well I do, because Sox wins and personal gloom-and-doom seem to correlate quite well, but it can't be that much fun to read). This is a good fastball hitting lineup and Santana is definitely not throwing anything with sink or run. JD, Paulie and Q! will have their shot to knock one out and even Alexei seems to be coming around. It would be nice if someone gets on base for them. The Sox are fourth-worst in the MLB in walks per plate appearance. Santana has struggled throwing strikes so far. Try not to help him out too much, 'k guys?

Jay Bennett, Dead at age 45.

colintj — Mon, 25 May 2009 05:08:30 -0000

Jay Bennett, Dead at age 45.

Jeez.