By looking at Fangraphs Broxton's 2011  FB velocity is still down  94.9mph vs 97.8mph (2009)..2010 it was 95.3mph.

He is throwing fewer 1st pitch strikes 46% vs 63% in 2009.So command is worse this yr.

Fangraphs pitchFX says FB is not moving as much in vertical and horizontal.He has lost 1.5-2 inches movement.

Fangraphs also says SL is not moving as much (-.1 vs 1.7-2.0 inches)..flattening out! and is no longer a plus pitch

Batter contact rate is up inside zone and outside.

Z contact rate is 93% vs 80-83%

O contact rate is 61.5% vs prior high 40+% in prior yrs 2009 -

His krate is now about 4.5k/9ip..and getting worse...

His krate in 2009  got worse from beginning  of yr to end and 2011 is worse yet. Scary chart check it out!

Broxton has been lucky and we should not expect him to get better unless something mechanical is done or new plus pitch is developed. Bottom line he should not be closing.

Jansen or Padilla need to come to rescue fast....

BP lastest projection done a few weeks ago based on VORP analysis says we will win 87 games and be 3 games back of SF who has 90 wins.

We will score more runs a than last yr..4.27 runs (4.12) and give up less 3.93 (4.27). In fact BP says we are 2nd best in  MLB in runs allowed..to A's.with SF just behind us,. So they like our pitching staff. We will scratch for runs though... ..our pythagorean is just +.34 runs at moment which is 87 wins..

Opportunities for us to gain wins...

Kemp and Ethier are both valued lower than 2009 so if either or both get back Mojo we can gain 2-3 wins..

Also CBills is projected to have worse yr than 2010 and Padilla has a VORP or WAR of zero so if either does well we may win a game ofr two more.

Right now we are in hunt...

BP will update prior to season...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

Scott Elbert  in AFL not only has a new pitch , a cutter thrown at about 88mph but has improved his command during AFL season.

Scott has been in 10 games incl ASGame..

His stats now..ERA of  3.09 incl ASG

11 2/3 ip..8H....4er.. (2nd outing he gave up  a 3 run Hr)...4 walks...13ks... OBA of about .185 and GO/AO of 1.4.

His last 8 outings incl ASG............. no walks !!

thrown 178 pitches..124 for strikes..for 70%..he is normally 60% at best..

WELCOME BACK SCOTT...very promising comeback so far....if he keeps it up..possible Bully slot as LHP/ML and Loogy

If I were to target some MLB players that are top prospects could become..:this an upside look..

1. JSands.. looks like if he keeps K rate down..like 1b..Luke Scott -- Konerko

2. TRobinson.. similar to S. Victorino..CF

3.ZLee...need to see him pitch..

4. RDLRosa..DLowe with 95 mph FB

5. KJansen..looks like H Bell CL type

6.DGordon...if he hits LHB better and walks more...Furcal..if not E.Andrus

7.CWithrow- if he solves LHB walks..CBills if not AJ Burnett

8.AWebster.the most polished of all SP with great Chup......if he develops consistency with Cball then ..CCarpenter

9. AMiller... T.Lilly with 92 mph

10. EMartin...if he gets some command back at this stage  ..AJ Burnett at best..if not  RP..Joba

11. GGould...if he gets Mph back..CBills

12. IJD2--if he walks 10% of time like he is  in AFL and 2 yrs ago..ODog at 2b

13. JGarcia..youngster with 3 more yrs in minors...looks like Pedro Guerrero..rocket arm in RF.solid hitter,slugger

others..

Russell...MReynolds in RF..solid glove,arm lot sof Ks and Hrs..low Bave

Elbert...has new pitch ,cutter.to go with FB,ChUP  and Sl...if he gets command back looks like CJ Wilson as RP

Rubby (RDLR)- one of the hottest and fastest rising SP prospects just got promoted to AA. He was scheduled to pitch the second game of today's twinbill.

If he does well in AA look fo r him to shoot up in the top 10 prospect category..two plus pitches..good command..yep that is hard to believe..with our pitchers..esp the command part.

Also throws 100 mph as RP and mid 90s as SP...nice..

check out thread..and his stats..

De la Rosa Receives Gem of a Promotion Loons Add Lefty Christenson By Brad Golder / Great Lakes Loons 07/23/2010 2:32 PM ET Print    E-mail

The Great Lakes Loons, in conjunction with the Los Angeles Dodgers, announce the promotion of flame-throwing right-handed pitcher Rubby de la Rosa from the Loons to Double-A Chattanooga. In his place, the Loons have added left-hander Ryan Christenson.

De la Rosa, who has repeatedly hit triple-digits on the radar gun in 2010, was set to start the second game of today's doubleheader. He was 4-1 with a 3.19 ERA and six saves in 14 appearances (five starts). The 21-year-old right-hander from the Dominican Republic limited Midwest League opponents to a .223 average, striking out 55 to just 17 walks.

He began the season as the primary reliever for starter Elisaul Pimentel, racking up six saves. All of his saves were in stints of two innings or more and five of his saves came in appearances of three innings or more. Since joining the rotation permanently after the all-star break, de la Rosa has allowed just five earned runs over 27 innings (3-0, 1.67 ERA, .165 average against).