For the few folks who participated in discussions, we will be discussing who is available and isn't for picks 40, 54, 77, 95, and 125.

I feel pretty comfortable going with a prep bat at 40, then picking another prep bat, a prep arm, a college arm, and a college bat with the next four picks, to have a diverse draft that matches the Phillies 2:1:1:1 ratio in the first three rounds over the last four years. I will go for BPA in a given range for each pick, with the goal to have this pick mix.

Here is my ideal draft, posted earlier in the week, given these rankings, and assuming other players who I have ranked higher don't drop down to us:

Pick 40: Trey Williams (video); back-up: Rio Ruiz (video) - HS Bat

Pick 54: James Ramsey (video); back-up: Adam Brett Walker (video) - College Bat

Pick 77: Jose Orlando Berrios (video); back-up: Kieran Lovegrove (video) - HS Arm

Pick 95: Kyle Hansen (video); back-up: Josh Conway (video) - College Arm

Pick 125: Fernelys Sanchez (video); back-up: Josh Henderson (video) - HS Bat

Some of these picks are a bit different, with my updated draft board, but I will wait to discuss further on here as the draft unfolds.

Phillies MOD #1: here; MOD #2: here; The Good Phight Post: here.

Alright, so between discussions here at a The Good Phight, it looks like we have a pretty good list of candidates for pick 40, focusing on HS position players. My current top ten for this pick:

28. Trey Williams, 3B, Valencia HS (CA)
32. Rio Ruiz, 3B, Bishop Amat HS (CA)
37. Nick Williams, OF, Galveston Ball HS (TX)
41. Jesse Winker, OF, Olympia HS (FL)
43. Tanner Rahier, SS, Palm Desert HS (CA)
48. Corey Seager, SS, Northwest Cabarrus HS (NC)
49. Carson Kelly, 3B, Westview HS (OR)
56. Clint Coulter, C, Union HS (WA)
58. Jesmuel Valentin Diaz, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy (PR)
59. C.J. Hinojosa, SS, Klein Collins HS (TX)

As a reminder, the Philles picks in first three rounds, with BA's recently released list of slot values:

Pick 40: $1,291,300; 5% over = $1,355,865
Pick 54: $940,200; 5% over = $987,210
Pick 77: $659,800; 5% over = $692,790
Pick 95: $500,000; 5% over = $525,000
Pick 125: $374,400; 5% over = $393,120

By pick 77, signability becomes an issue to keep in mind. With five picks, and the proportion of draft picks the Phillies have picked in the last four years in the first three rounds, I think we should pick 1 college pitcher, 1 college bat, 1 high school arm, and 1 more high school bat after pick 40. So, I am going to share, from my current rankings, the top ten who could be available at picks 54, 77, 95, and 125. Knowing the parameters of 1 college arm, 1 college bat, 1 prep arm, and 1 prep bat, and the slot limitations, please post below who you would pick with each pick. I know this is a lot of work, but one week out, I want to make sure we have a good idea what direction to go in the draft.

Pick 54 top ten:

45. Adam Brett Walker, OF, Jacksonville University
46. Jake Barrett, RHP, Arizona St
47. Branden Kline, RHP, Virginia
48. Corey Seager, SS, Northwest Cabarrus HS (NC)
49. Carson Kelly, 3B, Westview HS (OR)
50. Clate Schmidt, RHP, Allatoona HS (GA)
51. James Ramsey, OF, Florida St
52. Nick Travieso, RHP, Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL)
53. Nolan Sanburn, RHP, University of Arkansas
54. Cody Poteet, RHP, San Diego Christian HS (CA)

Pick 77 top ten:

68. Tom Murphy, C, Buffalo
69. Pat Light, RHP, Monmouth
70. Brandon Thomas, OF, Georgia Tech
71. Keon Barnum, 1B, King HS (FL)
72. Alex Wood, LHP, Georgia
73. Jose Orlando Berrios, RHP, Juan XXII HS (PR)
74. Peter O'Brien, C, Miami
75. Kieran Lovegrove, RHP, Mission Viejo HS (CA)
76. Lex Rutledge, LHP, Samford
77. Jameis Winston, OF, Hueytown HS (AL)

Pick 95 top ten:

86. Daniel Robertson, SS, Upland HS (CA)
87. Alex Bregman, SS, Albuquerque Academy (NM)
88. J.T. Chargois, RHP, Rice
89. Austin Maddox, RHP, Florida
90. Christian Walker, 1B, South Carolina
91. Mitch Nay, OF, Hamilton HS (AZ)
92. Carson Fulmer, RHP, All Saints Academy (FL)
93. Tony Renda, 2B, California
94. Kyle Hansen, RHP, St. John's
95. Josh Conway, RHP, Coastal Carolina

Pick 125 top ten:

116. Kevin Plawecki, C, Purdue University
117. Austin Fairchild, LHP, St. Thomas (TX)
118. Christian Jones, LHP, Oregon
119. Josh Henderson, OF, Home Schooled (VA)
120. Mitch Brown, RHP, Century HS (MN)
121. Skye Bolt, OF, Holy Innocents Episcopal HS (GA)
122. Matt Reynolds, 3B, Arkansas
123. Fernelys Sanchez, OF, George Washington HS (NY)
124. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Caguas Military Academy (PR)
125. Hoby Milner, LHP, Texas

Continue reading this post »

Editor's Note: Promoted from FanPosts. Help these guys out if you can! - WholeCamels

Hey Phillies fans. My name is Mike, and I am the mock scouting director for the Phils in the annual mock draft at minorleagueball.com, John Sickles' SB Nation site. I posted a link to the discussions at minorleagueball.com in the fanshot section, but I am not sure how regularly people check those. As Phillies fans, I would like to get your input on the mock draft and the type of prospects you would like to see drafted.

Continue reading this post »

Here is MOD #2 for the Philadelphia Phillies. As stated in the last thread, found here, the Phillies have picked prepsters with their first pick in each of the last 4 years, with a plurality of their picks in the first three rounds going to prep bats. So at pick 40, here is an updated priority list, based on my own research and rankings:

1. Lewis Brinson – OF
2. Trey Williams – OF
3. Rio Ruiz – 3B
4. Nick Williams – OF
5. Tanner Rahier – SS
6. Jesse Winker - OF
7. Carson Kelly - 3B
   
8. Corey Seager – SS
9. Clint Coulter – C
10. C.J. Hinojosa – SS
    

Discussion in the previous post listed Ruiz, Coulter, Seager, and Hinojosa as the four favorites. Brinson was the pick in John and Matt's mock, and Kelly and Winker are new adds to this list, replacing Jameis Winston and Anthony Alford. Out of these picks, who is number one for you? I am leaning Brinson, he just feels like the most Phillies-type pick, followed by the Williams', Winker, and Hinojosa.

Let's also begin discussion on the next Phillies pick, pick 54. There is a good chance that one of the ten players listed above will still be available, but I think we should go either prep arm or college arm at 54. . Here are my top ten arms for pick 54:

1. Nick Travieso, hs RHP
   
2. Branden Kline, col RHP
3. Mitchell Traver, hs RHP
4. Jake Barrett, col RHP
5. Clate Schmidt, hs RHP
6. Nolan Sanburn, col RHP
7. Cody Poteet, hs RHP
8. Brady Rodgers, col RHP
9. Alex Wood, col LHP
10. Taylore Cherry, hs RHP

What do you think of the idea of drafting an arm at 54? Or would you rather aim for one of the bats if they fall? How would you rank these ten arms?

So I have the Phillies. They don't have their first pick until 40, followed by picks 54, 77, 95, and 125 through round three. Over the last four years, they have picked a HS player with each of their first choices, 3 position players and one pitcher. Over the first three rounds, they have picked:

7 HS position players

3 HS pitchers

2 College position players

3 College pitchers

I think it is safe to assume that pick 40 should be used on a prep player, probably a position player. Given the limits of the new CBA, the Phillies have only $4,916,900 to spend in the first ten rounds. Given that number, we can't go too crazy if a player falls to 40 with big demands. Who is everyone interested in at 40, given the parameters of a HS position player? Or do we want to go the prep arm route, given the depth in that area this year? I will post my own ideas after hearing from others. I am really hoping to hear from Phillies fans about how they think the Phillies mock should go.

Not sure how many people are still around from 2007, but thought I would share this video. I know others knew him better than I, and I was more of a lurker than an active poster back then, but he was well-liked and respected here, posting as VTTigers. He was tragically killed in the Virginia Tech shootings.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=7681320

Also, the link to the post John made in mourning is here:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2007/4/17/11203/6306

Take this opportunity to remember to be kind and loving to those around you, you never know if you will have another day with them.

The Chicago Cubs traded Sean Marshall to the Cincinnati Reds for Travis Wood, Dave Sappelt and Ronald Torreyes. Sappelt was the Reds Minor League Hitter of the Year in 2011. Although he is already 25, he has had good success over the last two years in AAA, and projects to be at worst a good fourth outfielder/righty platoon bat. Torreyes has been getting some talk on the community prospect list. As an 18 year old, he hit ..356 in A-ball, with a .389 wOBA and a 144 wRC+. He doesn't walk a lot - 4.6% BB-rate - but he also doesn't strike out a lot - 6.2% K-rate. He looks to be a solid defensive second baseman, and while his power is lacking right now - .101 ISO - he also has room to add some muscle (5'9" 140), and up his power.

For a relief pitcher, even a very good one like Marshall, Wood, Sappelt, and Torreyes is a great return. There is a strong possibility that Wood and Sappelt can match Marshall in overall value next year for the Cubs. If this happens, Torreyes puts the deal strongly in favor of the Cubs. If Torreyes continues hitting, expect the Jose Altuve comparisons to grow even louder.

So here is a question: Is Torreyes going to be a top fifty prospect after the 2012 season?

So the Orioles apparently reassigned six of their eight pro scouts to amateur scouting:

mlb.sbnation.com/2011/12/16/2640825/baltimore-orioles-dan-duquette-scouting

msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/baltimore-orioles-shake-up-scouting-department-121611

So, what does everyone think about this? It should help them for the draft, but really hurts them in preparing for trades involving minor league prospects. The question is, why not just higher six additional scouts? It would cost, I would assume, no more than half a million dollars, which is peanuts for an organization.

Since others are doing their post-draft and trade reviews, I though I would do one for my team, the New York Yankees. The Yankees have solid depth, and good quality. They should still rank a top ten farm system going into next year, due to few graduations, and holding on to their prospects at the trade deadline. While their top prospects have familiar faces, they have had some surprise breakouts this year. They have also had the typical volatility in their C+ prospects, with many from last year's list falling off, and some new faces coming on. With that said, here is my list of the top 50 Yankees prospects at this point. Please comment below – who did I rank too highly? Too low? Who did I miss? Hope you enjoy!

1. Jesus Montero c

Montero has slide a bit in my eyes from last year, but still should have an above average ML bat, and I think he can make it at catcher for at least a few years, and transition to 1B when Tex's contract is up.

2. Manny Banuelos lhp

Banuelos has also slipped a bit to me this year, due to the deterioration of his K-rate and his K/BB ratio, and the increase in walks and hits allowed. However, he is still only 20 and has split the season between AA and AAA with good results.

3. Dellin Betances rhp

Betances, like Banuelos has seen his ratios decline. However, his K-rate and K/BB ratio is better, as is his FIP. The reason Banuelos is higher is due to the three year difference in age – Manny has more time, and a higher ceiling as a result.

4. Gary Sanchez c

Sanchez rounds off the top four, which are the same as last year. And like the other three, he has taken a hit this year. First there was the attitude problems earlier in the year. Then there were the injuries to start and end the season. Finally, his numbers declined from last year, although he still put up great numbers for an 18 year old catcher in his first year in full season ball. His BB % has increased, but so has his K% to 27% - he needs to get that in check next year, or he may not live up to the potential.

5. Jairo Heredia rhp

Heredia has been coming back from injury since '09, and looks to have regained his form. The scouting reports are putting him in the low 90s , up from the high 80s last year, and closer to pre-injury velocity. His numbers as a 21 year old in A+ Tampa are fantastic, albeit in only 68 innings: 9.0 K/9, 4.25 K/BB, 3.48 FIP. Look for him to break out big next year in AA.

6. Mason Williams of

Williams was drafted in the fourth round of the 2010 draft, and so far has had the most success from that Yankees draft. He has put up a .353/.393/.491/.885 line, with 21 SB, and good defensive reports from CF. He is being propped up a bit by a .398 BABIP, and I know I will be higher on him than most, but I think he is going to have a big break out next year, and shoot up prospect lists.

7. Austin Romine c

Romine projects to be a solid MLB catcher. It seemed like he had room to grow after a solid year at AA Trenton in 2010 as a 21 year old. However, repeating the league this year, he didn't show any breakout, although he has dealt with concussion issues this year. Some positives are an increase in his BB% and an decrease in his K%. If he can maintain this, and find the power he lost (maybe even add to it) in AAA next year, he could look to share time with Montero at catcher in 2013.

8. David Phelps rhp

Phelps projects to be a solid #4 in the majors at this point. In AAA SWB this year, he has a 3.89 FIP, 8.0 K/9 and 3.12 K/BB in 88 innings. He went on the DL in June with shoulder discomfort, but it doesn't sound serious, as he recently returned to action. Look for him to be a candidate for a long relief role next year, or a trading chip in the offseason.

9. Brett Marshall rhp

Marshall was a rising Yankees prospect earlier in the year. He has cooled off some, with a 3.35 FIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.26 K/BB line in Tampa. He is also a strong ground ball pitcher, with a 55% GB rate. He should be in AA next year as a 22 year old, and I believe he will continue to build on his success this year.

10. Slade Heathcott of

Heathcott continued to improve this year, posting a .279/.347/.437/.784 line in A Charleston. However, he is out with a shoulder injury in his throwing arm, and may need the second surgery on it since last fall. If this pushes him from center to left field, it could hurt his prospect stock, as he has yet to show the power for that position. Also, had an incident earlier this year, getting suspended five games for fighting with an opposing catcher. Although he will only be 21, next year is a pivotal year for Slade – he needs to continue to grow as a player mentally, put up better power numbers, and come back healthy from his shoulder injury.

11. J.R. Murphy c

Murphy, a 2009 2nd rounder, had a very good 2011 in A ball, taking time away from Sanchez(the cause of the attitude problems mentioned earlier). His line in Charleston was .297/.343/.457/.800, with a decrease in K% and an increase in IsoD from 2010. His numbers have dropped since being promoted to Tampa, but that isn't unexpected for a 20 year old getting his first taste of A+ ball. His defensive reports have also improved this year. He very well could move ahead of Sanchez next year if current trends continue.

12. Nik Turley lhp

Turley has become one of my favorite Yankees prospects this year. This will probably be higher than most will rank him. However, Turley is a 6'7” lefty with a low 90s fastball. He was drafted in the 50th and final round of 2008, but signed for sixth round money, $125,000, to break his commitment to BYU. He has moved along slowly in the Yankees system. This year, as a 21 year old in Charleston, he had a 3.53 FIP, a 9.0 K/9, and a 3.90 K/BB. He has missed the last month to a broken hand from a line drive in his second start in Tampa, and may not come back to limit his innings. I expect big things from him in Tampa next year.

13. Cito Culver ss

Culver was a controversial 1st round pick in 2010 for Yankees fans, and while the results so far aren't great, they are solid. Culver continues to get strong reviews on his defense, but needs to find some consistency and cut down on the 42 errors so far. His bat in A- Staten Island is better than it has looked, posting a .264/.341/.359/.700 line, but with a 110 wRC+, and a solid 27 BBs to 45 Ks. The jury is still out on Culver, but so far so good. If he improves his average, power, and his defensive consistency, he will shoot up this list next year.

14. Dante Bichette Jr 3b

Bichette was the Yankees first pick this year, 51 overall, and like Culver was not well received by Yankees fans (myself included). He doesn't have Culver's defensive abilities, but he may be able to stick it out at 3b, making him more valuable than if he has to move to an outfield corner. So far, he has been on fire with the bat, since signing quickly after the draft. In the GCL, he has a .335/.445/.494/.939 line, showing power and on-base capabilities. It will be interesting to see how he does next year.

15. Adam Warren rhp

Warren was someone I was pretty high on going into 2011 – what can I say, I am a sucker for high K, low BB pitchers. His first season in AAA was solid, not spectacular, with a 3.97 FIP, 6.1 K/9, and 1.98 K/BB. His stuff will never be front of the rotation, but he could become a solid middle rotation pitcher, especially in a flyball friendly MLB park. Like Phelps, he could be a long reliever next year for the big league club, spend the year as a 6th-7th starter between NY and SWB, or be trade bait.

16. Greg Bird c

Bird was the fifth round draft pick this year for the Yankees, but received the largest bonus they handed out, a back of the first-round worthy $1.1 million. He is a catcher with some work to do on defense (a Yankees trend, it seems), and an electric power bat. Many believe that he will transition to 1B at some point, but he should have plenty of pop for the move. This will probably be higher than most would list him, but I believe in the bat.

17. Jose Ramirez rhp

Ramirez is a more hittable version of Heredia. Between Tampa and Charleston, he has posted a 8.6 K/9, 2.30 K/BB, and around a 4.20 FIP. However, he has allowed 10.4 H/9, thanks to a .346 BABIP. If his BABIP rebounds, he will move up the list; if not, he may have to move to the bullpen to see if he can play is stuff up some more.

18. Angelo Gumbs 2b

Gumbs was another solid pick from the 2010 draft, in the 2nd round. At Staten Island, he has put up a .271/.344/.424/.767 line, with a solid 120 wRC+. He has also made a solid transition to 2B, showing good range. As one of the youngest draft picks last year, he has been 18 all year, and should begin next year in Charleston as a 19 year old. Will be very interesting to watch how he does next year.

19. Graham Stoneburner rhp

I was higher on Stoneburner than many last year, putting him ahead of Warren. This year, he has dealt with some injuries, which have impacted his performance. He has a 6.0 K/9, 2.17 K/BB, and around a 3.64 FIP in 2011. I think he will rebound next year in AAA, but at 24 his leash will be short, and he may end up in the bullpen if he struggles early.

20. Zoilo Almonte of

Almonte will probably not be this high on most Yankees prospect lists, but I am becoming a fan. This year, between Tampa and Trenton, he has posted a .282/.356/.471/.828 line, with 15 HR and 17 SB. He is a solid OF, and could probably play a passable CF. Unfortunately, the Yankees OF is pretty set right now. He could end up on the Yankees bench at some point next year, but will probably be in AAA and end up as either trade bait or given a chance to win a place on the bench in 2013.

The rest of the top 50:

21. David Adams 2b

22. Ravel Santana of

23. Gabe Encinas rhp

24. Jordan Cote rhp

25. Corban Joseph 2b

26. Jake Cave lhp

27. Ben Gamel of

28. William "Rookie" Davis of

29. Brandon Laird 3b

30. Andrew Brackman rhp

31. Rob Segedin 3b

32. Bryan Mitchell rhp

33. Caleb Cotham rhp

34. Tommy Kahnle rhp

35. Ramon Flores of

36. Tyler Austin of

37. Matthew Duran 3b

38. Pat Venditte bhp

39. Daniel Lopez of

40. Austin "Bubba" Jones 1b

41. Tim Norton rhp

42. Hayden Sharp rhp

43. Jose Quintana lhp

44. Juan Carlos Paniagua rhp

45. Rafael DePaula rhp

46. Miguel Andujar 3b

47. Josh Romanski lhp

48. Isaias Tejeda c

49. Yeicok Calderon of

50. Daniel Camarena lhp

The next twenty players who just missed, in no particular order:

Shaeffer Hall lhp

Melky Mesa of

D.J. Mitchell rhp

Evan Rutckyj rhp

Chase Whitley rhp

Sean Black rhp

Kelvin De Leon of

Ronnier Mustelier of

Deangelo Mack of

Damon Sublett 2b

Kelvin Castro 2b

Kyle Roller 1b

Jose Toussen ss

Vidal Nuno lhp

Reynaldo Polanco rhp

Rainiero Coa c

Rony Bautista lhp

Ericson Leonora of

Cesar Vargas rhp

Angel Rincon rhp

Back during the amateur draft, I posted the first 16 picks in my shadow draft for the Yankees, which can be found here. It was the first time doing so, and I definitely took more risks than the real life Yankees did. Now that we know who has signed, I wanted to review below the results of my shadow draft.

Pick 51 - Daniel Norris, lhp, Science Hill HS, Johnson City, Tenn.

Picked by Toronto in the second round, signed for $2 million.

Pick 88 - Derek Fisher, of, Cedar Crest HS, Lebanon, Pa.

Picked by Rangers in round six, did not sign.

Pick 118 - Josh Osich, lhp, Oregon State

Picked by Giants in round six, signed for $450,000.

Pick 149 - Dillon Maples, rhp, Pinecrest HS, Southern Pines, N.C.

Picked by the Cubs in 14th round, signed for $2.5 million.

Pick 179 - Greg Bird, c, Grandview HS, CO

Same as Yankees pick, signed for $1.1 million.

Pick 209 - Jake Cave, lhp/of, Kecoughtan HS, Hampton, Va.

Same as Yankees pick, signed for $825,000.

Pick 239 - Kyle Winkler, rhp, Texas Christian

Picked in 10th round by Diamondbacks, signed for $240,000.

Pick 269 - Nick Burdi, rhp, Downers Grove (Ill.) South HS

Picked by Twins in 24th round, did not sign.

Pick 299 - Joshua Tobias, 2B, Southeast Guilford HS, Greensboro, NC

Picked by Nats in round 31, did not sign.

Pick 329 - Jason Coats, of, Texas Christian

Picked by Orioles in round 12, did not sign.

Pick 359 - Billy Flamion, of, Central Catholic HS, Modesto, Calif.

Picked by Astros in 25th round, did not sign.

Pick 389 - Julius Gaines, SS, Luella HS, Locust Grove, GA

Picked by Red Sox in 32nd round, did not sign.

Pick 419 - Burch Smith, rhp, Oklahoma

Picked by Padres in 14th round, signed for $250,000.

Pick 439 - William "Rookie" Davis

Same as Yankees pick, signed for $550,000.

Pick 479 - Preston Tucker, of/1b, Florida

Picked by Rockies in the 16th round, did not sign.

Pick 509 - Blake Forslund, rhp, Liberty University

Picked by Red Sox in 17th round, did not sign.

Overall, I would have signed 8 of my top 16 picks, for a total of $6,815,000. High risk drafting means fewer people signed, although it looks like the Yankees only signed 22 people this year, without a lot of risky drafting. What did happen is that my mock draft signings are heavy on pitching, as none of the tough sign position picks – Fisher, Tobias, Coats, Flamion, Gaines, Tucker – actually signed.

The trade off is this:

Norris, Osich, Maples, Winkler, and Smith

for

Bichette, Cote, Duran, Jones, Wetherell, Arneson, Montgomery, Grice, James, Pinder

So the question is: Would you rather have the five from my shadow draft or the ten from the Yankees draft?

Before we started the 2011 Community Prospect list, I began my own list of the top fifty pitchers and position players. This allowed me to prepare for the Community List, and compare my results to that list, to see where my tendencies lay, and if they were a successful way to rank prospects. My review of my top fifty positional prospects can be found here. Please feel free to comment on this list. Who did I miss? Who did I rank too high or low and why? On to the top fifty pitchers:

1. Jeremy Hellickson (Community Rank #1)
2. Matt Moore (Community Rank #4)
3. Julio Teheran (Community Rank #2)
4. Aroldis Chapman (Community Rank #3)

No big surprises here. Hellickson has had a successful rookie season, with a 113 ERA+, 4.27 FIP, 4.36 xFIP. He has been quite lucky, with a .224 BABIP, and has a low 1.88 K/BB, but these should improve over time, if not immediately this year. If it wasn’t for another rookie righthander in Seattle, he would probably be the ROY.

I was higher on Moore than the community, but I have been high on him since 2008. With Hellickson’s graduation, Moore is easily the top pitching prospect right now, with a 2.62 FIP and 4.68 K/BB as a 22 year old in AA.

Teheran struggled in his first two MLB starts, but has been excellent in AAA, with a 2.68 FIP and a 3.11 K/BB. Many are losing faith due to his lower K-rate, but remember two things: one, he is 20 and in AAA; and two, his BABIP (.264) is not much different than last year (.277) and his Hit-rate is the same (6.7 vs. 6.8). With all that said, Teheran still looks to be in the top five pitching prospect right now.

Chapman’s ranking was based purely on his stuff, and the hope that he would be transitioned into a starters role. With 13.5 K/9, the sickness of his stuff is undeniable. However, with a 9.3 BB/9, so is his wildness. He needs to work on his control and command in order to be a successful reliever, much less ever having a chance to be a starter. In retrospect, this was probably too high of a ranking, for myself and the community. If he was going to remain a reliever, which seems likely, he should not have ranked in the top twenty.

5. Mike Minor (Community Rank #5)
6. Shelby Miller (Community Rank #7)
7. John Lamb (Community Rank #9)
8. Manny Banuelos (Community Rank #21)

Minor was ranked #5 on both mine and the community’s list. He had  a great MLB debut last year, with a 3.65 xFIP and a 3.91 K/BB. This year in six starts his xFIP is 3.77, but his K/BB has dropped to 1.73. In AAA, his K-rate has dropped, but so has his BB-rate, which has allowed him to maintain a better than last year K/BB of 3.33. Still a great prospect, and will probably graduate this year off the prospect lists. Once the Braves part ways with Lowe, the spot is his to lose. The Braves have a stacked future rotation of Hanson, Beachy, Jurrjens, Minor, Teheran, and Vizcaino/Delgaldo, with someone available to trade for a bat.

I was one spot higher on Miller, and he has done nothing to disappoint, moving into the top five for pitching prospects. However, let’s compare Miller to Teheran. Teheran is actually younger than Miller, pitching in AAA, and has similar rate stats (2.68 FIP, 3.11 K/BB) as Miller in AA (2.50 FIP, 3.25 K/BB). It seems to me to be a bit of shiny new toy syndrome going on with the devaluing of Teheran and the rise up the prospect lists for Miller in some midseason rankings. I would still rank them very close, with Teheran probably a spot higher than Miller right now.

John Lamb had 8 mediocre starts in AA before having to go under the knife with Tommy John surgery. I would have to assume he will not be on any Top 50 lists this offseason, perhaps at the tail end of a Top 100, but hopefully he can bounce back successfully next year.

And my first big deviation from the community list: ManBan. Now I admit, it was probably partly due to my Yankees homerism that I had him this high, but I just really liked the video and the stats for Banuelos. Last year, as a 19 year old, he reached AA, and put up a 11.8 K/9 and  3.4 K/BB. This year, he has returned to AA, and is doing well, just not as well as last year, seeing a deterioration in his K/BB rate to 1.91. The problem right now is his BB-rate is too high. He needs to get that under control. Even so, right now he is a top ten candidate again this year.

9. Michael Pineda (Community Rank #6)
10. Randall Delgado (Community Rank #16)
11. Jacob Turner (Community Rank #15)
12. Dellin Betances (Community Rank #18)

If there is any way to call someone ranked in the top ten a miss, Pineda would be it. I only ranked him three spots lower than the community, but it seems a chasm. My main concern was that he could not remain healthy, and this would require him to move to the bullpen. However, he has proven himself at the major league level this year, and is the ROY front-runner, ranking 14th in the AL for pitching WAR. The injury issues still remain, but I am more confident in him now than I was last fall.

I was higher than the community on Delgado, Turner, and Betances. Delgado didn’t do great in his first MLB start, but he has done well as a 21 year old in AA. His BABIP, FIP and BB’s are up, and his K’s and K/BB are down. He is still a solid prospect, probably top 15 pitching, but hasn’t yet built on last year to move up on the lists.

What I really liked about Turner was his low BB-rate in 2010. Combined with scouting reports about his stuff, I was pretty sure he would be a big breakout candidate this year and move into the top of the pitching prospect rankings. However, as a 20 year old in AA, he has seen an across the board regression. His BB’s are up and K’s are down, leading to a K/BB drop from 4.43 to 2.65. His FIP is 3.59, buoyed by a .279 BABIP. I know scouting reports are still high on him, but he has taken a hit in my eyes, and at this point probably has at best tread water in my rankings.

Betances was probably a bit of Yankees homerism again, but what’s not to love about a 22 year old, 6’8” flamethrower with a 11.4 K/9, 4.91 K/BB, and a 2.57 FIP in 2010. As a 23 year old in AA this year, he  has continued to strike batters out, but has fallen prey to the same issue as Banuelos: he is walking way too many people (5 BB/9). He has to get this under control to move up and not tread water or fall down in the rankings.


13. Chris Sale (Community Rank #17)
14. Danny Duffy (Community Rank #24)
15. Kyle Drabek (Community Rank #13)
16. Mike Montgomery (Community Rank #10)

I was higher than Sale than the community, but, like Chapman, this was because I thought they would develop him as a starter. I think this is something I need to keep in mind when ranking in the future: to rank players based on what their organizations likely will do player development-wise, not based on what I think should happen. Had I done this, both Sale and Chapman would drop at least ten spots. Sale has become an above average reliever, with a 118 ERA+, 2.47 K/BB, and 9 K/9.

I was quite a bit higher on Duffy than the community, a continuation of the year before when I fell in love with him as a prospect. He put up great numbers in 2010 after returning from a brief retirement. In 2011, he had 8 excellent starts in AAA, and then earned a promotion to the Royals starting rotation. He has so far been a below average pitcher in the majors, posting a 85 ERA+ and 1.81 K/BB. However, he is still only 22, his strikeout rate is still a solid 7.5/9, and his xFIP is 4.08, half a run lower than his ERA. If his walk rate returns closer to his minor league level, he will begin to look like the pitcher I expected. And if you play the “take his two worst starts away” game, he would have a 3.60 ERA.

Drabek was someone who I wanted to rank lower than 15, but I gave the scouting reports on him more weight than the numbers and my personal feelings. It seems like I should have ranked him where I initially wanted to, around ten spots lower. Drabek has been atrocious this year, posting a 71 ERA+ and a 0.92 K/BB - he walked more batters than he struck out. That is not a path to success, but rather a path back to the minors, where the nightmare has continued for Drabek. In 6 AAA starts, Drabek has a 8.06 ERA, 6.24 FIP, 6.0 BB/9, and 1.12 K/BB. His command and control have seemed to disappear. Hopefully for the Jays, and for Drabek, he can right the ship. However, the damage could be done, either physically, or mentally.

I also ranked Montgomery lower than the community, for many of the same reasons as Drabek. His numbers after his AA promotion were not very good, although he was only 20. This year, he has fallen apart, walking too many batters while his strike outs decline, resulting in a 1.62 K/BB and 4.64 FIP. He needs to turn it around this half to remain relevant in next year’s rankings.

17. Jordan Lyles (Community Rank #20)
18. Kyle Gibson (Community Rank #14)
19. Zach Britton (Community Rank #12)
20. Jameson Taillon (Community Rank #8)

Jordan Lyles was a bit of an enigma for me in last year’s rankings. He was one of my favorites the year before, having the high K-rate, low BB-rate package I love to see in pitchers. However, in 2010, while his BB-rate remained steady, his K-rate took a big hit, more than likely due to the rapid promotion to AA and AAA as a 19 year old. Because of this, I was hesitant with him, but gave him a ARL bonus and the benefit of the doubt. In 2011, he returned to AAA, showing the same solid BB-rate, but an even lower K-rate. After 10 starts, the Astros promoted him to the show, where he has matched his peripherals from AAA with a 6.7 K/9 and a 2.41 K/BB, with a 3.98 xFIP. He has been solid, and could fall into a Steve Trachsel type career as a solid innings-eater. I do wonder how he may have progressed with a much more patient system (a la Tampa Bay).

I was lower on Gibson than the community. I am a bit more cautious when ranking contact pitchers, as their margins for error are a bit lower. However, this year Gibson has improved across the board, with a 9.0 K/9, a 4.09 K/BB, and a 3.55 FIP. He should probably come up in September, with a strong shot at the rotation next year, and has moved up the list in my mind.

Britton falls into the same category as Gibson. I saw a pitcher with a fairly low BABIP, a pedestrian K-rate of 7.3 K/9 and 2.43 K/BB. This year, he returned to AA for two starts, improved slightly on these numbers, and was promoted to Baltimore. In the Majors, he has been an average starter, with an ERA+ of 98, but has a terrible 5.5 K/9 and 1.64 K/BB. He is getting grounders, but it will be awful difficult to be successful long term with those type of peripherals.

And at #20, Jameson Taillon. Once again, I am very conservative with new draftees, taking the wait and see approach. In fact, he is the highest 2010 draftee on this list, and one of only five total. Well I waited, and what I have seen is a top five pitching prospect. He has put up a 8.8 K/9, a 1.5 BB/9, a 6.00 K/BB, with a 3.25 FIP. He has to be considered an unqualified success.

21. Martin Perez (Community Rank #11)
22. Arodys Vizcaino (Community Rank #35)
23. Jarrod Parker (Community Rank #19)
24. Chris Archer (Community Rank #30)
25. Casey Kelly (Community Rank #22)
26. Tyler Matzek (Community Rank #37)
27. Jake McGee (Community Rank #27)
28. Trey McNutt (Community Rank #28)
29. Drew Pomeranz (Community Rank #31)
30. Christopher Dwyer (Community Rank #29)
31. Simon Castro (Community Rank #25)
32. Jenrry Mejia (Community Rank #23)
33. Zach Stewart (Community Rank #32)
34. Tanner Scheppers (Community Rank #41)
35. Alex White (Community Rank #34)
36. Andrew Brackman (Community Rank #44)
37. Robert Erlin (Community Rank #53)
38. Jake Odorizzi (Community Rank #33)
39 .Zach Wheeler (Community Rank #26)
40. Alex Wimmers (Community Rank #39)
41. Jarred Cosart (Community Rank #38)
42. Jason Knapp (Community Rank #55)
43. Tyler Skaggs (Community Rank #48)
44. Garrett Richards (Community Rank #41)
45. Enny Romero (Community Not Rank)
46. Alexander Torres (Community Rank #51)
47. Anthony Ranaudo (Community Rank #36)
48. Hector Noesi (Community Not Rank)
49. Rudy Owens (Community Not Rank)
50. Zach Lee (Community Rank #40)
 
From 21-50, I will just take a look at those I differed from the community on the most, but feel free to comment on other rankings or players that I do not cover here.

Let’s start with Martin Perez. I docked him quite a bit for his 2010 performance, ranking him ten spots lower than the community. He got an ARL bonus, but his walk rate was ugly: 4.5 BB/9, making his K/BB an uninspiring 2.02. He has bounced back some this year, with a lower BB-rate, but also a lower K-rate, leaving his K/BB moderately improved at 2.32. However, he is only 20 and has made AAA - this, combined with scouting reports has him high on many midseason lists, but he has at best tread water on my personal list. The negative with the aggressive promotion is he has not gotten a chance to consolidate at a level yet. He is young, but the Rangers handling of him could have a negative impact on his long-term potential.

I ranked Arodys Vizcaino 13 spots higher than the community. It seemed like I was voting for him forever last winter. Honestly, I didn’t get why he got so little love last year. I know there were some health concerns, but so were there with Pineda. Arodys put up a 1.3 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 6.58 K/BB, 2.22 FIP. Those are great numbers. This year, he has put to rest the health concerns for the time being, and posted a 2.8 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 3.25 K/BB, 3.08 FIP. He will be in my top 15, perhaps top 10.

Tyler Matzek struggled in 2010, and I knocked him down my list more than the community did. While his K-rate was solid, his BB-rate was an abysmal 6.2 BB/9. I have little tolerance for bad walk rates (see Martin Perez above), and even less for this type of rate. However, the scouting reports were still positive, and he was seen as the top prep arm in the 2009 draft class. How things have changed in two years. He has completely fallen apart this year, walking more batters than he has struck out. It looks like I was more right than the community, but we were all too optimistic here. This is exactly why I am more cautious with new draftees than most. At this point, the Rockies should look at transitioning him to the bullpen and see if they can salvage anything out of Matzek.

 I was also much higher on Robbie Erlin than the community, ranking him 16 spots higher on my personal list. In 2010, he posted a 1.3 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 7.35 K/BB, great ratios, albeit with less inspiring scouting reports. However, I am a sucker for these types of numbers, and he has made me feel like a genius this year. He has increased his K’s and decreased his BB’s, resulting in a 0.9 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 10.82 K/BB - unbelievable. He still is not getting the love he deserves due to scouting reports on his stuff, but he has maintained his rates as a 20 year old in AA - at some point you have to start buying into the results. He is easily in my top 20 this year.

Zach Wheeler, like Martin and Matzek, walks too many for my taste, hence the lower ranking than the community. He has moved up to A+, and maintained his great K-rates and terrible BB-rates, resulting in a weak 2.07 K/BB. He is still getting more love on midseason rankings than Erlin, but I think that is a mistake. Erlin’s floor as a #4 is way higher than Wheelers as a reliever. Wheeler has too much to prove still for me, and too high of a chance for flaming out. He will still be a top fifty pitching prospect, but at the back end for me.

I was way too optimistic with Jason Knapp, but I will blame the local Cleveland papers for that J. Actually he had great numbers in his brief return in 2010 from should surgery in 2009.. He never made it out of extended spring training, and had to undergo his second shoulder surgery in two years. I don’t think he will amount to much more than a solid reliever at this point, and has taken a big drop in my eyes.

Zach Lee was ten spots lower on my list than the communities, once again due to his status as a new draftee. He has proven the hype was warranted. This year, he has posted a 8.0 K/9, 2.91 K/BB, and 3.84 FIP. He should rank in the top twenty at the end of the year.

Three pitchers made the back end of my list, and were not ranked by the community: Enny Romero, Hector Noesi, and Rudy Owens. Romero was great in 2010, posting a 9.2 K/9 and 4.00 K/BB. He was moved up to A-ball, and has improved his strikeouts to 10.6 K/9, but has also seen his BB-rate more than double to 5.1 BB/9. This is not a good sign. Thankfully for Enny, he is in Tampa Bay’s system, and will be given time to adjust at each level. In another farm system (Texas, Houston, Detroit), he may be promoted, struggle, and have his long-term potential negatively impacted. If he can get his BB-rate lowered by the end of the year, he would probably still be near the end of my top 50.

Noesi may have been another Yankees homer ranking, but I asked John earlier in the year if it was a reasonable ranking for both him and Owens, and he said yes. I loved Noesi’s control, which resulted in a 5.46 K/BB rate in 2010. In 2011, he has seen his peripherals decline severely in four AAA starts, and has been used as a long reliever for the Yankees in the majors, where he has posted a 126 ERA+ in his first 30.1 IP. I still think he could be a successful starter, but on the Yankees, he may become the next Ramiro Mendoza.

Owens passed the AA test in 2010, as a great control pitcher with a decent K-rate, similar to Noesi. He put up a 7.9 K/9, 5.74 K/BB, and 2.95 FIP. This year in AAA, his BB-rate is up and K-rate is way down, resulting in a 2.11 K/BB and a 4.12 FIP. Perhaps his stuff has stopped playing in AAA, perhaps he has hit a wall in his development. He may become a AAAA pitcher, but he could also turn things around. As a control pitcher, his margin for error is small, especially if he can’t strike people out anymore. At this point, he would not be in consideration for a top 50 spot, probably not even a top 100 spot.

My biggest misses were probably Carlos Martinez and Rubby De La Rosa. However, Martinez and Rubby were both ranked outside of the community top 50, so I do not feel as bad about these misses. Rubby has likely graduated, and Martinez will be a top five pitching prospect.

Overall, I am fairly happy with these rankings. Like with the positional rankings, I see how I am conservative with high school draftees. I also tend to devalue groundball/contact pitchers, as well as pitchers with good scouting reports and stuff but bad BB/9 and K/BB rates. What do you think?

Before we started the 2011 Community Prospect list, I began my own list of the top fifty pitchers and position players. This allowed me to prepare for the Community List, and compare my results to that list, to see where my tendencies lay, and if they were a successful way to rank prospects. My review of my top fifty pitching prospects can be found here.Please feel free to comment on this list. Who did I miss? Who did I rank too high or low and why? On to the top fifty positional players:

1. Mike Trout (Community Rank #1)
2. Bryce Harper (Community Rank #2)
3. Domonic Brown (Community Ranked #3)
4. Jesus Montero (Community Ranked #4)

No big surprises here. I agreed with the community for each of the first four spots. Trout has done nothing to lower his ranking, and is in the majors right now, although perhaps not for too long. Harper has also solidified his spot at #2, and if Trout does graduate, will become the #1 prospect. Brown has graduated, showing below average defense in a small sample, and an average bat, but with room to improve due to a low .264 BABIP.

Montero, on the other hand, may be the first big disappointment on the list. He has regressed in nearly every category, both offensively and defensively, and has gotten worse as the season has progressed - not good for repeating AAA. His walk rate and ISO are down, K rate is up, and with a higher than normal BABIP. He is off to a fast start in July, perhaps he will turn it around. But if his bat is stalling, and he isn’t improving as a catcher, perhaps it is time to move him to 1B or LF before Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome sets in.

5. Mike Moustakas (Community Ranked #8)
6. Wil Myers (Community Ranked #7)
7. Brandon Belt (Community Ranked #10)
8. Eric Hosmer (Community Ranked #5)

These four I had more highly ranked than the community list as a whole, although not by much. At this point in the list, however, 3 places can cause acrimony, and I am sure many would disagree with these placements relative to others below. Moustakas was a feel rank, as I thought he would expand on last year and put up even better numbers, especially with plate discipline. However, he did not improve, but did maintain his AAA production, and has made it to KC and will graduate as a prospect shortly. He has struggled so far, and will need to improve his discipline to put up numbers in the majors similar to his in the minors and not become a Tony Bautista clone.

Meyers’ ranking was right in line with the community, but he has struggled mightily this year. Like Montero, Meyers’ walk rate and ISO are down, K rate is up, and with a higher than normal BABIP. Granted, he is only 20 and in AA, but he needs to continue his hot June and turn it around in the second half, or he will fall quite a bit on my list for 2012.

Brandon Belt is needs to be an exercise in patience for the SFG. He has crushed the ball in the minors, with great plate discipline. However, he has had a rough go of it in the majors, putting up a .609 OPS so far. Once again, patience is required San Fran, and you will have a hitter who is much better than Aubrey Huff (Mr. .655 OPS) - hell, he is almost as good as him now.

Hosmer was basically switched with Moustakas from the community rankings. In hindsight, this was a mistake, and the community list got it right. Moustakas did not progress, and Hosmer has outhit him at both the minor- and major-league levels, posting a 110 OPS+. He will probably be second in the ROY voting, behind Michael Pineda.

9. Freddie Freeman (Community Ranked #11)
10. Dustin Ackley (Community Ranked #6)
11. Brett Jackson     (Community Ranked #16)
12. Derek Norris     (Community Ranked #19)

I was higher on Freeman that the Community, but not by much. He has posted a 119 OPS+, great for a rookie. He is a top rookie, but with Beachy and Kimbrel, the top three Braves rookies will probably split the vote, and the ROY will go to Danny Espinosa. 

I was also lower on Dustin Ackley than the Community, not by much, but by enough to send a message - I was cautiously optimistic he would show more, but wanted to see it. I loved his BB:K rate, but he did not show a high batting average or power, and was still trying to work on his defense.  This year, he raked in AAA before being promoted to Seatle, where, in a small sample size, he has crushed the ball to the tune of a 140 OPS+, and even posting positive defensive stats.

Brett Jackson and Derek Norris at this point are the biggest deviations from the Community list. I probably have an unhealthy prospect crush on Jackson, but he has continue to grow, increasing his walk rate while maintaining his other peripherals. A 20 HR, 30 SB CF with above average defense sounds like a great prospect to me - a Colby Rasmus with a bit less power. At 22, he was recently promoted to AAA, and may see some time in Chicago this September.

Norris has been a bust on the surface. However, there is some hope that his numbers will bounce back when his .210 BABIP turns around.

13. Grant Green (Community Ranked #21)
14. Nick Franklin (Community Ranked #15)
15. Hank Conger (Community Ranked #28)
16. Manny Machado (Community Ranked #12)

I really bought into Grant Green’s bat last year. However, this year the only positive offensively is an increase in his BB Rate. He has started to turn it around in July, and if he can continue to do so, that will help his position on next year’s list. The big question for him is whether he can stay at short or will be moved to second. I say give him every opportunity at short, as his bat is much more valuable there than at second.

The community and I pretty much agreed on Franklin. So far he has had a good year, increasing his BB rate, decreasing his K rate, and getting promoted to AA at age 20. However, his power numbers are down, and he really needs to become more consistent on the defensive side of the ball.

Hank Conger was one of the biggest deviations between the community and my list, and considering where this ranking is, probably the most controversial. I argued then, and still believe today, that he can hold his own defensively at Catcher (as long as Scioisia gives him a chance), and will have an above average bat there. So far, even with his 86 OPS+, he is an above average C offensively, and beats Mathis in fWAR, rWAR, both offensively and defensively. Will the Angels realize this and play Conger more and Mathis less? Probably not.

Manny Machado was a high pick out of high school, and I personally tend to be a bit more wary than most with these types of draftees - I want to see how they do in professional ball first. The tools were too great to fall much farther than 16, and as you can see he was the only 2010 HS Draftee on my list. So far, he has not disappointed, and is already in A+. He has a good chance of making AA in his age 19 season next year. I love the BB:K rate, and his average should improve when his BABIP does. On next year’s list, he has to be a top five positional talent, perhaps as high as #2 behind Harper if Trout graduates.

17. Desmond Jennings (Community Ranked #9)
18. Gary Sanchez (Community Ranked #20)
19. Brett Lawrie (Community Ranked #13)
20. Devin Mesoraco (Community Ranked #18)

Rounding out my top 20, these four were also within the Community’s top 20. Desmond Jennings was 8 spots higher on the Community List than my own. To be honest, I was down on him. His offensive numbers were down across the board, even with a respectable .327 BABIP. Even his number of steals was down. However, he has bounced back this year, showing similar K- and BB-rates, a good number of steals, but with a jump in power. Now what is working against him is his age, as he will be 25 next year, in his first full MLB season. He has to be docked for this, and he will also probably struggle at first, as he has done during his minor league career after promotions.

Sanchez has struggled in his first year in full season ball. However, his BB rate is up, and he is still just 18. His ranking for next year will depend heavily on his second half.

I was lower on Lawrie that the rest of the Community. I was not too impressed with his power, BB-rate, and K-rate in 2010, nor his defensive rep and stolen base success. He did have a positive in ARL and scouting reports. This year, as a 21 year old in AAA, he has crushed the ball, with a lower K-rate and better stolen base success, all while learning a new defensive position (and fairly successfully). Granted, he is in Las Vegas and the PCL, but you have to be excited by his performance this year. If he is eligible for next year’s list, he has to be a top five positional talent like Machado, and in competition for that #2 spot behind Harper if Trout graduates.

The community and I pretty much agreed on Mesoraco. I was a bit hesitant to rank him higher than this because he had a terrible first three years in professional ball, but his breakout 2010 was hard to ignore. 2011 shows that 2010 was no fluke. His ISO is down, and he has a higher than usual BABIP, which could signal a regression in the second half. However, if I am the Reds, I am trading Ramon Hernandez to a contender in need of a catcher for some prospects, and inserting Mesoraco in the starting lineup.

Rest of the list:

21. Lonnie Chisenhall (Community Ranked #17)
22. Aaron Hicks (Community Ranked #14)
23. Jason Kipnis (Community Ranked #24)
24. Danny Espinosa (Community Ranked #23)
25. Wilin Rosario (Community Ranked #26)
26. Carlos Perez (Community Ranked #40)
27. Yasmani Grandal (Community Ranked #39)
28. Trayvon Robinson (Community Ranked #41)
29. Dee Gordon (Community Ranked #31)
30. Wilmer Flores (Community Ranked #22)
31. Jonathan Singleton (Community Ranked #30)
32. Miguel Sano (Community Ranked #25)
33. Chris Carter (Community Ranked #27)
34. Tony Sanchez (Community Ranked #37)
35. J. P. Arencibia (Community Ranked #42)
36. Matt Dominguez (Community Ranked #33)
37. Billy Hamilton (Community Ranked #35)
38. Jean Segura (Community Ranked #32)
39. Nolan Arenado (Community Ranked #51)
40. Nick Weglarz    (Community Ranked #55)
41. Hak-Ju Lee (Community Ranked #50)
42. Jurickson Profar (Community Ranked #29)
43. Jaff Decker (Community Ranked #34)
44. Michael Choice (Community Ranked #44)
45. Jerry Sands (Community Ranked #38)
46. Jose Iglesias (Community Ranked #45)
47. Yonder Alonso (Community Ranked #36)
48. Chris Nelson    (Community Not Ranked)
49. Matthew Davidson (Community Ranked #56)
50. Drew Cumberland (Community Not Ranked)

I will review those with big deviations from the community list. First, Aaron Hicks, who the community had 8 spots higher than I did. I did not like the lack of power and high K-rate. He has regressed across the board this year, but still is doing enough at this point to warrant a top 30 spot on next year’s list.

I was much higher on Carlos Perez, Yasmani Grandal, and Trayvon Robinson than the community. So far, Perez has not done well at all. However, he is still just 20, and has time to turn it back around.
Grandal was great in A+, but as a 22 year old college bat, that should be expected. He is quite advanced defensively. He is currently in AA and hasn’t looked as good offensively as in A+, with small sample size precautions.

Robinson has had a great year in AAA, albeit in the PCL, and is still a favorite prospect of mine. However, there are some definite red flags here - his BB-rate has declined quite a bit, and his K-rate has seen a huge increase. If these trends don’t reverse, he will not be able to easily transition into the majors next year.

I didn’t get the Flores love last year, and I still don’t. He had good scouting reports and a ARL bonus. However, according to all reports, he will not stick at shortstop, and doesn’t have the bat for third at this point. His power and plate discipline are quite disappointing, and he has struggled this year in A+. I think he is in line for a steep drop on next year’s list for me personally.

I was much higher than the community on Arenado, Weglarz, and Lee as well. Arenado BB-rate has bounced back, his K-rate has fell, and he has room for BABIP improvement, although his power has declined this year. The big key for him is if he can be a successful defensive 3B, or if he will have to shift to 1B.

Look for Weglarz to have a bounce-back second half. He is walking at a great rate, while maintaining his K-rate. He has a terrible .242 BABIP right now - expect that to go up in the second half. The question is will his power come back with his BABIP? But so far a disappointment.

I feel pretty good about the Hak-Ju Lee ranking compared to the community. He has had a great season offensively, and combined with his defense, he should be top 10 for me, and perhaps in the back half of the top five.

Now on to my biggest miss - Jurickson Profar. He is the type of player I am always conservative on. He had great scouting reports and tools, but his 2010 numbers just looked terrible to me. I docked him for it more than the rest of the community. I love the BB:K rate this year. He has exploded this year, and like Lee should be top 10 for me, and perhaps in the back half of the top five. The top five could be Harper, Lawrie, Machado, Lee, and Profar in some order (as long as Trout graduates).
 
Overall, I am fairly happy with these rankings. I do see how I am conservative with high school draftees, and weigh floor and MLB readiness higher than most. Sometimes this works, sometimes it bites me in the ass. I also tend to give more positional value to catchers and shortstops than the rest of the community as a whole. What do you think?

Since I put so much effort into preparing for three picks in this year's mock draft, I thought it would be fun to do a Shadow Draft. Especially after the disaster of a pick at 51 last night. So here goes.

Pick 51 - Daniel Norris, lhp, Science Hill HS, Johnson City, Tenn.

Way better than Dante Bichette, Jr. and the Yankees should have no problem affording him. Have him as the 15th ranked draft prospect on my personal list. These are the types of picks you make when you sign away your first round picks - signability/expensive prospects who drop to you.

Pick 88 - Derek Fisher, of, Cedar Crest HS, Lebanon, Pa.

Picked him at 51 in the mock draft, love him even more at 88. Yanks picked Sam Stafford, who I like more as a fourth rounder.

Pick 118 - Josh Osich, lhp, Oregon State

Have him ranked 43 on my list, should move quickly, and can fall into bullpen if starting doesn't work out - but I think he will be fine as a starter. Yankees picked Jordan Cote, who I need to research.

Pick 149 - Dillon Maples, rhp, Pinecrest HS, Southern Pines, N.C.

Have him ranked 44 on my board. Yankees picked local kid Matt Duran - need to research him.

Pick 179 - Greg Bird, c, Grandview HS, CO

The Yankees picked Greg Bird, and I like that pick. I had him at 118 on my board. I like Delmonico more as a catcher with position questions, but trying to be a bit more realistic now, and this is still a good value on my board.

Pick 209 - Jake Cave, lhp/of, Kecoughtan HS, Hampton, Va.

Once again, there are others I like more, but he is a good value in round six. Yankees have him listed as a CF, and if he fails, he can always become a solid bullpen arm.

Pick 239 - Kyle Winkler, rhp, Texas Christian

He may be injured, but I think he is worth taking a flyer on in round 7. Not sure if he will sign cheap or go back and try to re-establish value, but with threat of hard-slotting next year, think he can be signed to a decent deal. Yanks picked Austin Jones, a 1B out of High School.

Pick 269 - Nick Burdi, rhp, Downers Grove (Ill.) South HS

Picked him in second during mock draft, definitely like him enough for 8th round. Yanks picked Philip Wetherell, a RHP from Western Kentucky.

Pick 299 - Joshua Tobias, 2B, Southeast Guilford HS, Greensboro, NC

Not sure why he hasn't gone yet. He may be expensive, but worth it. Yanks picked Zach Arneson, RHP from Lewis & Clark State.

Pick 329 - Jason Coats, of, Texas Christian

College outfielder ranked 73 on my personal board. Yanks picked JuCo RHP Jonathon Gray.

Pick 359 - Billy Flamion, of, Central Catholic HS, Modesto, Calif.

Fell in love with him preparing for mock draft, and would have picked him had Nick Burdi not fell to me in the second. Great pick here in the 11th. Yanks picked Mark Montgomery, RHP from Longwood University.

Pick 389 - Julius Gaines, SS, Luella HS, Locust Grove, GA

I wanted a middle infielder, and think Gaines can stay at short. Phil Evans also considered, although unsure he can stay at short. Yanks took Cody Grice, CF for Grand Valley State.

Pick 419 - Burch Smith, rhp, Oklahoma

Decided to get a college arm in the mix, and was torn between Smith and Navery Moore. Smith is larger, and was higher on my board, so Smith it is. Yanks went with Justin James, OF from Sacramento CC.

Pick 439 - William "Rookie" Davis

Rookie was my pick for the 3rd round in our mock, and since the Yanks decided to take him in the 14th, who am I to argue? Great value at this point in the draft.

Pick 479 - Preston Tucker, of/1b, Florida

Highest ranking collegiate bat on my board, should be affordable. Yanks picked Tyler Molinaro, RF from Pittsburgh CC.

Pick 509 - Blake Forslund, rhp, Liberty University

Highest ranking collegiate arm on my board, hampered by injuries, but great potential with big velocity. Yanks picked RHP Branden Pinder from Cal State.

Hey everyone, so during break, I decided to put this up

Pick 51 is fast approaching. Big question - do we risk picking Purke if he falls? Other signability guys - if they fall, I will pick.

Top three discussed in MODS (Chafin, Boyd, Osich) are still available. Hopefully one falls, or at least someone we did not expect.

Let's discuss this as quickly as possible.

Will also discuss picks 88 and 118 here.

Looking forward to our first pick!

Results of MOD #1, 2:

Top three choices for pick #51: Chafin, Boyd, Osich.

They have all gained some helium in last week, but I would assume one of them will be available. If not, we will look at someone who has fallen due to signability. John's recent Mock has Jerez at #51. Frankie Piliere has said that Dillon Howard, Tyler Goeddel, Jake Cave, and Brandon Martin are four prepsters on the Yankees wish list. If Howard fell to 51, I would definitely pick him - but I do not think that will happen. Goeddel I would pick at #88 if he is still available, but I think 51 is too soon. Same with Jerez. Martin is a third rounder at best, but probably better as a fourth and outside of this mock draft.

Results of MOD #3:

Top four choices for pick #88: Tyler Greene, Rookie Davis, Jake Cave, Billy Flamion

If Goeddel and Jerez fell to #88, I would move them to the front of these choices, Goeddel first in line. I like Cave and Flamion, and we can hope one falls to the third round.

Now on to MOD #4:

At pick 118, it is really a crapshoot to predict who will be available. So instead of the usual ten names, I will propose 20. Please tell me what order you have them in, and who we should focus on. Also, who am I missing? Players potentially available at 118:

Connor Barron
Keenyn Walker
Carson Baranik
Jake Hager
Harold Martinez
Daniel Vogelbach
Jace Peterson
Kevin Cron
Tyler Marlette
Brett Austin
Scott Lyman
Austin Nola
Greg Bird
John Magliozzi
Phillip Pfiefer
Blake Snell
Cody Kukuk
Scott McGough
Deshorn Lake
J.R. Graham

Note: I have edited the list of 20 here.

Alright, so not much discussion in last MOD. Right now, rankings for pick 51:

Top three: Chafin, Boyd, Osich. This goes against the past three years, where the Yanks have focused on prep position players (SS and CF). But I think it is acceptable with a deep pitching class. Are there any signability picks people see falling to 51? They are one of the few teams who can pop for a big contract, although they tend to wait to do so until after round two or three.

Discussion for pick #88: The ten who I think will be available, and are the highest ranking on my list are:

Tyler Greene
Rookie Davis
Billy Flamion
Larry Greene
Jake Cave
Adam Conley
Kes Carter
Austin Wood
Christian Lopes
Cody Asche

How does this look? Any suggested add-ons? People you think will be gone? I think here we can focus on a prep position player. Obviously, on mock draft day if anyone drops that is unexpected, I may pick them instead.

From the first MOD, names mentioned for pick 51 were:

Dwight Smith, Nick Delmonico, Robert Stephenson, Dillon Maples, Kolten Wong, Matt Skole, Matt Purke, Andrew Susac, Grayson Garvin, Josh Osich, and Andrew Chafin.

From my own research this week, I have the following players ranked around 51:

Cory Spangenberg, Austin Hedges, Tyler Beede, Phil Evans, Hudson Boyd, Andrew Chafin, Preston Tucker, Zach Cone, Jack Armstrong, Joshua Tobias.

From the two lists, Chafin is the only repeat. I believe Purke, Wong, Susac, Delmonico, and Stephenson will be off the by 51. Out of the rest, how do you have them ranked? Myself:

Chafin
Boyd
Hedges
Evans
Garvin
Osich
Beede
Maples
Spangenberg
Armstrong
Cone
Smith
Tucker

Also, let's start talking about the second round pick, #88. I have in that area:

B.A. Vollmuth, J.R. Graham, Dante Bichette Jr., Blake Snell, Dominic Jose, Nick Ahmed, Nick Burdi, John Magliozzi, Daniel Vogelbach, Kes Carter.

What do you think of this group? Who else would you add?

Hey everyone, I posted an earlier version, but can't find it in fanposts. The Yankees do not pick until 51, which this year might not be too terrible considering the depth of the draft. Who should we pick? Should we go high upside, signability picks that have dropped? Positional or pitching? I am new to this and am looking to everyone to help me out here.

Some history:

Draft spending 2008-2010: $19,339,000 ($6.45 million/year)

Top 100 draft picks 2008-2010:

College pitcher - 2

High School pitchers - 1

High school positional - 4

So it looks like early picks they focus on high school positional players. They do not shy from signability picks. Who in the high school positional ranks do you think will fall to 51? I look forward to a good discussion.

Jeff Kent is planning to announce his retirement, according to ESPN

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3849334

Hall of Famer? I think so, although people may try to connect him to PEDs through Bonds.

I think that it would be interesting for John to do a prospect retro on Kent, who was a late round draft pick (20th round), and late bloomer.

I always felt he was kind of underrated around baseball. Just wanted to start this post to talk about Kent.

And to make it more prospect-oriented, what current prospect do you think could most closely resemble Kent's career, especially at 2nd?

Hey everyone, I was talking to someone the other day about the Yankees, and how they want to keep Joba on an innings limit again. This would put a serious strain on the bullpen, however. An idea I came up with (although I am sure others have thought of it previously under different circumstances) is to split starts for joba and Phil Hughes. Have one start and go five, and have the other come in for the last four, The next time reverse so that the opposite one starts. If the Yankees did this, each pitcher would get to about 144 innings (32 starts * 4.5 innings per start). This keeps both their pitch counts down, and sets them up for 2010 as full time starters. The only arguement against this set-up is that it takes a bullpen spot away. However, I see no reason why the team couldn't leave open starters on their third day of rest (usually a throw day) for the bullpen in this situation, on one inning limits. This adds another potential four relievers, and should be more than enough to compensate for Hughes's place. I was just wondering what everyone thought on the feasibility of such a scenario?

And if you are not a Yankees fan, or think Joba and/or Hughes are overrated, I got it. I have seen plenty of comments to this effect, and I respectfully disagree :)

Hey everyone, I was just thinking about the Rays and their stacked pitching. With the seemingly inevitable trade of Peavy, could the Rays set Kazmir up as a consolation prize for a desperate second place finisher in the Peavy sweepstakes? They both have comparably attractive contracts:

Kazmir - three-year, $28.5 million extension w/2012 club option. 2008: $3.785 million, 2009: $6 million, 2010: $8 million, 2011: $12 million, 2012: $13.5 million club option w/$2.5 million buyout

Peavy - three-year, $52 million extension w/2013 club option and limited NTC. 2008: $6 million, 2009: $8 million club option w/$500,000 buyout, 2010: $15 million, 2011: $16 million, 2012: $17 million, 2013: $22 million club option w/$4 million buyout

Kazmir's is obviously cheaper, but he also carries a higher injury risk, making the contracts comparable (no numbers here, just logic/intuition). So just out of curiousity, what type of package do you think the Rays could receive for Kazmir, and from whom?

Hey John, I was just looking at some stats, and haven't heard about (nor would have ever guessed) that Cody Ross was doing as well as he is doing:  407 AB 20 HR .263  .319  .499  114 OPS+

While this isn't Pujols level, it does seem surprising. But then I looked at his minor league numbers, and they looked real good. It seemed that the Dodgers refused to play him. He has a late start to his career, but I am just wondering what you think about his past and his future.

Have a good day.

Well today Ryan Klesko officially retired. He was always a favorite of mine. I was wondering if maybe John could do a Prospect Retro? I wonder what type of career he could have had if he could have avoided all of the injuries. As it is, he put together a respectable .279  .370  .500  128+ line. Does anyone think this is a similar career path for JD Drew?

Anyway, good luck to Klesko in his future endeavors.