It seems everyone is picking Ryan Bader to win this fight including the betting lines that currently list Ryan as -450 favorite. Is this to high? Carmelo Marrero is a significant step up in competition with a record of 10-2 with losses coming to legitimate UFC fighters (Wilson Gouveia and Gabriel Gonzaga). Carmelo is 4-0 1NC in his last five fights.The main reason it seems is Ryan is a favorite is because of his superior wrestling pedigree and Ryan's percieved better striking. Could this fight be a repeat of Matt Hamill vs Mark Munoz where many people picked the relatively green Mark Munoz? I believe Carmelo's experience against top level UFC competition could surprise a lot of people in his performance in this fight.