I had a chance to look at the stats of Tyreke Evans, Beno Udrih, Francisco Garcia and Kevin Martin while Martin was on the team. Here's what it shows:

With Martin:

* Tyreke averaged 17.4 points.

* Martin averaged 19.8 points (only 16.6 points after he returned from injury).

* Udrih averaged 8.3 points.

* Garcia averaged 4.5 points (in only two games).

TOTAL: 50.0 points

Without Martin:

* Tyreke averaged 22.0 points.

* Udrih averaged 14.2 points.

TOTAL: 36.2 points

In the seven games since Martin was traded, a rusty but steadily improving Garcia has averaged 8.3 points.

TOTAL: 44.5 points

So you have a gap of five points to make up in theory, but then you consider Martin was scoring more than 3 points a game less after he returned and Garcia averaged 12 points a game the last two seasons and seems to be rounding into form, and you can see that gap closing.

Now let's look at the front court scoring:

* Landry: 16.9 points in 37 minutes.

* JT: 12.7 points in 32 minutes.

* Hawes: 10.4 points in 26.8 minutes.

Obviously JT isn't playing and we are currently missing his scoring. But add up those minutes and it's just under 96, the time the two bigs play in a game (not counting our small ball lineups with Nocioni or Donte playing the 4). Just as a comparison, I think a previous look showed our bigs played about 90 minutes a game. Against the Rockets, Landry (38), Hawes (28), May (9) and Dorsey (14) combined to play 89 minutes.

After that it's a big dropoff in scoring to May averaging 3.5, Brockman averaging 3.0 and Dorsey averaging 1.8.

I see Landry scoring as much if not more as the team starts going to him more, I see JT maybe scoring and playing a little less but still averaging at least 10 a game and Hawes more or less keeping the same numbers. The other three guys will be situational players and primarily be used to spell JT and Hawes when they are not producing or Landry if we need some defensive rebounding.

Basically Landry at 16.9 points a game is replacing May-Brockman-Dorsey for the most part once JT returns. So that's a big shot in the arm to our frontcourt scoring punch.

Our defense has also improved since the trade as we have held four of seven opponents under 100 points and all but OKC under 110. The team is giving up 98.4 points per game since the trade.

Bottom line: more or less the same amount of backcourt scoring, more frontline scoring, better defense and less salary after the trade. Hopefully that translates into more wins both this season and in the future.

While everyone has spent most of the trade threads fantasizing about the Kings getting established (and costly) talent like Bosh, Amare, Joe Johnson, Dalembert, Iguodala, etc., the Kevin Martin for Carl Landry deal makes it pretty clear he’s heading in a much different direction that is much more appropriate for a rebuilding team.

I think when we look at other rosters for players who might end up on the Kings, we might want to start plugging in the criteria for the new Geoff Petrie prototype player.

Here’s some of what I think he is looking for:

* Cheap: current contract less than $5 million.

* Young: max age 26.

* Productive: among league leaders in PER at his position.

* Improving: stats, including minutes per game, are on the rise.

* Not an expiring contract, so we get to take a decent look.

* Physical, brings his lunch pail to work, good energy and effort.

* Good character guy.

* Versatile, able to play multiple positions.

* If not a complete player, has at least 2-3 things he does well.

Landry is 26, has seen his minutes and scoring rise each year, is sixth in PER among power forwards and is a big scoring threat down low. He can play the 3, 4 and 5, is a physical load and is a fan favorite. He fits this new prototype to a T.

Here are some other players that may be on Petrie’s radar for most of the same reasons (links are to Hollinger’s PER info for each position):

* PG: Lou Willliams, Ty Lawson, Sergio Rodriguez (down the road), Acie Law, Goran Dragic, Rodney Stuckey, Darren Collison.

* SG: Marcus Thornton, Roddy Beaubois, Anthony Morrow, Randy Foye, Sam Young, Brandon Rush.

* SF: Kelenna Azubuike, Nicolas Batum, Wilson Chandler.

* PF: Craig Smith, Ryan Anderson, Brandon Bass, Ersan Ilyasova, Danilo Gallinari, Andray Blatch.

* C: Mareese Speights, Robin Lopez, Roy Hibbert, Javale McGee.

I think these are the type of guys Petrie is asking about when GMs call, and that may be why some of the proposed deals that have discussed most extensively here aren’t happening. With the Maloofs bleeding cash and team nowhere near the playoff hunt, we will continue to try to trade our most expensive assets for cheap, young talent and expirings. That’s why Jared Jeffries is now on the Rockets instead of the Kings. That’s why Troy Murphy is not a King.

That’s what Petrie will go looking for this summer when he tries to unload Beno, Garcia and Nocioni on someone: a combination of young talent and expirings. And, hey, if you want to throw in some picks, he’ll take that, too.

At some point, he’ll reverse course and trade some of that stockpiled young talent for a game changer. We’re not even close to that stage yet. I do think he’ll make a bluff bid for Bosh this summer just to keep the fans on board, but he knows he’ll get outbid and he’ll be happy to “lose” that battle.

I think Kmart was dealt for a few reasons:

* The Maloofs are pretty bad financial shape and needed to weather the storm. All their deals in the past year, even signing the coach and renewing Petrie, showed this. I'd be surprised if they make the proposed deal with New York for the same reason unless Petrie really, really thinks Hill can be a big time player.

* Kevin's contract: even though his supporters said it was a bargain, it wasn't for a guy who really didn't fit in with the more aggressive, physical style that started with the deal for Nocioni and was really put in motion in the last draft. And as some have pointed out, Landry brings a lot of things Kevin did to the table, plus a lot more toughness, at a position of need.

* The Kings already had significant dollars tied up in Beno and Cisco with no apparent takers. Those are your new 2 guards/combo guards, and they should form a nice three-guard rotation with Tyreke with Ime getting the defensive stopper minutes. Though Cisco can also play the 3, we are stacked there and Donte and Omri need to get a lot of playing time to develop.

* The ties to the past and a culture of losing: the team is in rebuilding mode and needs to continue to cut its ties to the past. Martin was the poster child for this.

* Other factors: the injuries, the excuses, the crunch time failures, the poor D, the whining, the drama and the emerging split in the fan base over Kevin eventually became too big a distraction. Now the team can focus on playing basketball.

I think Omri Casspi has pushed himself to the top of the class on this team and deserves to play 30-35 minutes per game if not more going forward. Omri is a lights-out shooter, comes up big in clutch time, plays decent defense and shows a lot of fire.

In fact, I like the idea of a triumvirate with Tyreke, Kevin and Omri at the top and the rest of the team being role players.

I also think it's time to scale back the expectations of our front line players and go a little smaller, give Brockman a little more time, JT less time, Spencer a lot less time.

I could see a rotation like this going forward:

* PG: Tyreke 36 minutes, Beno 12.

* SG: Kmart 36 minutes, Beno 8, Udoka 4.

* SF: Casspi 36 minutes, Nocioni 8, Udoka 4.

* PF-C: JT 24, Brockman 24, Nocioni 12, Donte 20, Hawes 16.

* Mop-up crew: Sergio, K9, May.

Give Kevin's minutes to Beno, Udoka and Donte until he returns to action.

Kevin Martin is scheduled to see the doctor Jan. 12 and will not play until after that date, according to the Kings Twitter page.

That means he's going to miss at least six more games and makes his earliest possible return Jan. 15 at Philadelphia, the start of a six-game road trip crammed into nine days. They play at Washington the following night and at Charlotte two nights later.

If he returns Jan. 15, he could still play in the team's final 45 games of the season.

I hope this schedule holds up, because it's time to begin the next phase of the Kings rebirth.

The Kings are 11-13 overall, 10-3 at home, but just 1-10 on the road. If they were to keep up that pace, they’d win 31.54 games at home and just 3.73 games on the road for a total of 35.27 wins.

I think most would consider that a successful season, although the strong play of our young team despite missing Kevin Martin and Francisco Garcia has teased us into hoping for more and expecting more when those two return to the court.

There’s been some talk of formulas to measure the progress of a young team, and three were put forth in the Kings-Blazers post-game thread.

Otis:

1. Win games at home versus bad teams.
2. Win games on the road versus bad teams.
3. Beat good teams at home.
4. Beat good teams on the road.

ForThree:

1. Win the vast majority of games at home against bad teams.
2. Win half your games at home against good teams.
3. Win half your games on the road against bad teams.
4. Beat good teams regularly at home.
5. Win .400 of road games overall (you’re a playoff team here)
6. Win .500 on the road.

Kfan:

1. 20 wins at home – 10 road = 30 wins (poor team).

2. 25 wins at home – 15 road = 40 wins (borderline playoff team).

3. 30 wins at home – 20 road = 50 wins (home court contender).

4. 35 wins at home – 25 road = 60 wins (title contender).

I am not sure what constitutes a good vs. bad team, and there’s probably room for average in there, but that would tend to make things a little too messy. Probably better to just use above .500 as a gauge of good teams and below that mark to indicate bad teams. I am going to call .500 Oklahoma City a good team for purposes of this exercise.

Anyway, let’s see how the Kings are stacking up by these three sets of criteria:

1. Win games at home versus bad teams (8-1, PASS).
* Nov 2: MEM (.400), W 127-116

* Nov 8: GSW (.280), W 120-107

* Nov 17: CHI (.375), L 87-101

* Nov 25: NYK (.320), W 111-97

* Nov 27: NJN (.077), W 109-96

* Nov 29: NOR (.458), W 112-96

* Dec 2: IND (.391), W 110-105

* Dec 12: MIN (.154), W 120-100

* Dec 16: WAS (.304), W 112-109

2. Win games on the road versus bad teams (0-3, FAIL).
* Oct 30: @ NOR (.458), L 92-97

* Nov 23: @ MEM (.400), L 105-116

* Dec 8: @ NOR (.458), L 94-96

3. Beat good teams at home (2-2, PASS/FAIL).
* Nov 4: ATL (.750), L 105-113

* Nov 10: OKC (.500), W 101-98

* Nov 13: HOU (.560), W 109-100

* Dec 6: MIA (.542), L 102-115

4. Beat good teams on the road (1-7, FAIL).

* Oct 28: @ OKC (.500), L 89-102

* Oct 31: @ SAS (.565), L 94-113

* Nov 7: @ UTH(.600), W 104-99

* Nov 20: @ DAL (.731), L 102-104

* Nov 21: @ HOU (.560), L 106-113

* Dec 5: @ PHO (.654), L 107-115

* Dec 9: @ SAS (.565), L 106-118

* Dec 15: @ POR (.593), L 88-95

ForThree:

1. Win the vast majority of games at home against bad teams (7-1, PASS).
2. Win half your games at home against good teams (2-2, PASS).
3. Win half your games on the road against bad teams (0-3, FAIL).
4. Beat good teams regularly at home (2-2, FAIL).
5. Win .400 of road games overall (you’re a playoff team here), (1-10, FAIL).
6. Win .500 on the road (1-10, FAIL).

Kfan:

1. 20 wins at home – 10 road = 30 wins (poor team).

2. 25 wins at home – 15 road = 40 wins (borderline playoff team).

3. 30 wins at home – 20 road = 50 wins (home court contender).

4. 35 wins at home – 25 road = 60 wins (title contender).

We’re on pace for more than 31-32 home wins and less than four road wins, so FAIL across the board.

It’s still a pretty small sample size to draw any conclusions from. We’ve had a loss of success at home, but we need to improve our performance on the road. I’m pretty confident this team is going to win more than four road games, but winning more than 30 home games would definitely be a surprise.

I wrote a post the other day assessing Beno’s salary value: Here it is:

If the average player makes about $5.85 million a year and there are 15 players on each roster and the average player thus plays 16 minutes a game, would it be fair to conclude that a guy who makes $5.85 million and plays 16 minutes a game with a (so they say) average PER of 15 is fair value?

 

If so, how much is Beno worth playing 30 minutes a game with a PER of 17.3?

 

If X / $5.85M = 30*17.3 / 16*15, X = $12.65M a year.

 

So is Beno a bargain?

After thinking about it a bit I tweaked the formula to include the team’s winning percentage. My rationale is that it’s harder to get playing time on a good team than it is a bad team.

I started thinking about the Kings players stack up and what they are worth this season and what they were worth last year.

The basic stats (minutes played, PER) come from Basketball Reference. Again, here’s the formula:

X (Player’s Salary Value) / $5.85 million = Minutes per game X PER X Team’s Winning Percentage / Average of 16 minutes per game X Average PER of 15 X Average Team Winning Percentage of .500

Injuries hurt a player’s value, so instead of using minutes played per game the player played in, I used minutes played for all the team’s games.

I eliminated all players who were not with the team for the entire season just to make things a little easier to calculate.

Here are the findings:

2008-09 Kings Salary Values (Team Winning Percentage of .207)

* Kevin Martin, $4,600,000

* Jason Thompson, $3,939,000

* Spencer Hawes, $3,614,000

* Beno Udrih, $3,436,000

* Francisco Garcia, $3,427,000

* Donte Greene, $464,000

* Kenny Thomas, $67,000

2009-10 Kings Salary Values (Team Winning Percentage of .455 in 22 games)

* Tyreke Evans, $14,330,000

* Jason Thompson, $13,367,000

* Beno Udrih, $10,466,000

* Spencer Hawes, $8,773,000

* Omri Casspi, $7,279,000

* Andres Nocioni, $6,800,000

* Kevin Martin, $5,331,000

* Donte Greene, $5,219,000

* Sergio Rodriguez, $5,158,000

* Kenny Thomas, $2,218,000

* Jon Brockman, $2,179,000

* Sean May, $613,000

* Francisco Garcia, $0

TOTAL: $81.12 million (does not include Udoka and Mason)

Kevin Martin’s numbers are hurt by his injury problems. If you gave him as many minutes as Tyreke this year and he played at the same level he displayed in his five games, his salary value would be $19,284,000.

It appears the Kings are getting good value for the most part. Hawes’ numbers may be the biggest surprise.

The guys that matter are Tyreke, Kevin, JT, Spencer, Garcia, maybe Casspi/Dé3 and Noc/Beno because of their contracts.

That’s what ForThree said in a very effective post in the Taking Stock thread, and I thought I’d start a discussion, perhaps premature but inevitable, on who fits where when our injured players return and we are at full strength.

There’s lots of versatility in the group ForThree isolates as the future pillars of the franchise:

* PGs: Tyreke, Beno, Garcia in a pinch.

* SGs: Tyreke, Kevin, Garcia, Casspi in a pinch.

* SFs: Nocioni, Casspi, Greene, Garcia, Kevin in a pinch.

* PFs: JT, Spencer, Nocioni, Greene.

* C: Spencer, JT.

I really think we need to find a way to get Casspi and Greene into the starting lineup eventually. I think Donte is going to have to learn to emerge as a power forward.

I really don't see minutes for Garcia at the 3 when he comes back and I frankly think he will be battling Beno for minutes when everyone is healthy. It wouldn't surprise me to see Beno and Tyreke continue to start as guards with Kevin as supersub and quick energy off the bench and Garcia playing maybe 10-20 minutes a game.

Nocioni is a quandary, and his contract probably makes him the one to go at some point. But until that point you still have to pencil him as the starter, particularly when the other team has a go-to scorer at the 3 or 4 that he matches up with well. Casspi and Donte still make youthful mistakes, but they also bring a nice set of skills into the game, particularly their ability to hit the three ball, which I’d like to see as a bigger part of our offense. We’re getting stripped a lot because of our emphasis on taking the ball to the cup, and I hope we evolve to more of the inside-out, quick around-the-horn passing game which we have used effectively at times this year.

That leaves JT and Spencer to man the big men positions with plenty of reserves. I’d really like to see us stick with the current crew and try to strengthen this area through the draft rather than taking on any huge contracts via trade unless a deal comes down that both makes us a better team and makes financial sense. Nothing that has been thrown out so far meets those two criteria in my eyes.

After showing us a glimpse of the player he can become with five double-doubles and playing a key role in our four-game winning streak, it looks like the league is finally catching up to Jason Thompson.

He has regressed into some of last year's tendencies, of whining and moaning with each call and break that goes against him, and he seems to have lost some of the composure he displayed earlier in the year. Joakim Noah and Drew Gooden schooled him and outboarded him, and whoever he covered last night seemed to have no trouble getting to the rim or grabbing rebounds. The Rockets scored at will in the paint for the most part.

Meanwhile, JT had five rebounds last night, and the Kings third-quarter rally came with him riding pine and the Kings resuming their rebounding and defensive ways of their recent best play.

On Twitter the other day, JT said he was hoping  to return to Dallas for All-Star weekend. Maybe it's time to shut down the All-Star talk, even for the sophomore game, stop reading the press clippings and this site, play your best, get back to being a double-double machine, help the Kings win and let the chips fall where they may.

Though this deal appears to be dead, I thought I’d take a quick look at Emeka Okafor’s stats and compare them to the guys he could take minutes from if the Kings did the deal that Amick said was in the works: Spencer Hawes, Kenny Thomas and John Brockman.

Spencer Hawes: $2.3 million, $3.0 million, $4.1 million.

* 29.6 minutes per game, 42% FGs, 86% FTs.

* Per 36 minutes: 2.4 OReb, 6.4 DReb, 8.8 TReb, 2.2 A, 2.7 TOs, 0.8 steals, 1.6 Bl, 3.8 PFs, 12.7 points.

Jon Brockman: $458,000, $932,000.

* 8.6 minutes per game, 62% FGs, 33% FTs.

* Per 36 Minutes: 7.2 OReb, 6.6 DReb, 13.8 TReb, 1.2 A, 1.2 TOs, 0.0 steals, 0.0 Bl, 7.8 PFs, 11.3 points.

Kenny Thomas: $8.8 million.

* 13.4 minutes per game, 43% FGs, 83% FTs.

* Per 36 Minutes: 5.4 OReb, 7.5 DReb, 12.9 TReb, 1.1 A, 2.7 TOs, 0.5 steals, 1.1 Bl, 3.2 PFs, 5.9 points.

Emeka Okafor: $10.8 million, $11.8 million, $12.8 million, $13.8 million, $14.8 million.

* 29.5 minutes per game, 51% FGs, 56% FTs.

* Per 36 Minutes: 3.6 OReb, 8.0 DReb, 11.6 TReb, 0.8 A, 2.1 TOs, 0.6 steals, 2.3 Bl, 3.8 PFs, 12.8 points.

Rankings

* Minutes per game: Hawes 29.6, Okafor 29.5, Thomas 13.4, Brockman 8.6.

* FG%: Brockman 62%, Okafor 51%, Thomas 43%, Hawes 42%.

* FT%: Hawes 86%, Thomas 83%, Okafor 56%, Brockman 33%.

Per 36 Minutes

* Offensive Rebounds: Brockman 7.2, Thomas 5.4, Okafor 3.6, Hawes 2.4.

* Defensive Rebounds: Okafor 8.0, Thomas 7.5, Brockman 6.6, Hawes 6.4.

* Total Rebounds: Brockman 13.8, Thomas 12.9, Okafor 11.6, Hawes 8.8.

* Assists: Hawes 2.2, Brockman 1.2, Thomas 1.1, Okafor 0.8.

* Turnovers: Brockman 1.2, Okafor 2.1, Thomas 2.7, Hawes 2.7.

* Steals: Hawes 0.8, Okafor 0.6, Thomas 0.5, Brockman 0.0.

* Blocks: Okafor 2.3, Hawes 1.6, Thomas 1.1, Brockman 0.0.

* Fouls: Thomas 3.2, Okafor 3.8, Hawes 3.8, Brockman 7.8.

* Points: Okafor 12.8, Hawes 12.7, Brockman 11.3, Thomas 5.9.

So you get so-so scoring, probably another team block per game, pretty decent shooting on the limited shots he does take, terrible free throw shooting, very few assists, and rebounding which is actually less than the average of two of the guys he’d replace. And he’d be the highest paid player on your roster for the next five years.

No, thanks. But, hey, if you’re determined to blow it up and want to get rid of David West, let’s talk.

I posted player rankings 10 days ago, and I thought I would revisit it to see what has changed since then.

The quick answer: a lot, including Kevin Martin's injury and the emergence of some of the players.

Rankings followed by player and projected minutes per game. Previous rankings and minutes in parentheses:

1. Thompson 34 (2, 34) Young fella is becoming a double-double machine. Heart of the team.
2. Evans 32 (4, 30) Starting to get it together. Top ROY candidate. Learning to get his AND make team better.

3. Udrih 32 (8, 10) Making a fan even out of the most hardboiled cynic. Great QB and playing solid D.

4. Nocioni 28 (6, 22) Solid vet making presence felt.

5. Hawes 28 (5, 28) Quietly settling into role player status.

6. Casspi 24 (3, 30) Westphal pushing all the right buttons with bright young star.
7. Udoka 20 (unranked) New player adds defensive edge without being a zero on offense.

8. Greene 16 (12, 4) Recent play puts him back in the mix, adds physical presence to bench.
9. May 10 (9, 8) Still the top bench option to back up JT and Hawes.
10. Thomas 8 (13, 0) Has fought his way out of the doghouse and into backup PF minutes.

11. Brockman 4 (10, 8) Entertaining hustler who will be a second quarter-garbage time delight.
12. Rodriguez 4 (11, 8) Starting to play better in limited minutes.

Injured list:

* Martin (1, 40). Are the Kings a better team without Kevin?

* Garcia (didn't mention him last time).

Waived

* Mason (7, 18). Became too much of an offensive liability. Udoka a better option.

It's early, and the sample size is admittedly small, but here's my take, subject to ongoing analysis (playing time per game in parentheses):

1. Martin 40 (really no other true 2 guard on the team without Cisco)
2. Thompson 34 (love the way he runs the court and picks up cheap garbage hustle buckets)
3. Casspi 30 (as pointed out, should start at SF)
4. Evans 30 (only a rookie, will get better, needs to learn to depend high post screens)
5. Hawes 28 (not a big fan, but he's all we got, so play him)
6. Nocioni 22 (tweener who is too slow for SF and too small for PF, but a gritty vet nonetheless)
7. Mason 18 (defense should earn him minutes behind both Casspi and Martin)
8. Udrih 10 (showcase him for a trade at midseason to someone stupid)
9. May 8 (hopefully he will get better)
10. Brockman 8 (he earned more minutes last night)
11. Rodriguez 8 (serviceable backup PG at best)
12. Greene 4 (Casspi's play makes him expendable)
13. Thomas (see No. 10)

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(From the FanPosts. - TZ)

In Amick's Friday missive, Kenny Natt unloaded on the team's poor defensive play and effort against the Pacers and hinted at lineup changes.

"From my standpoint, what I need to do is pull guys out of the game that don't want to play. Guys who don't play with effort, that's who I'll start pulling out of the game. I've made it very clear to them that that's where we're going from now on.

Even in a developing situation, you can't stay in a basketball game if (they're) not going to play. If you think that you're going to stay in the game (without playing hard), you're going to be sitting over there with me. That's what they have to understand.

"We have another couple of days here, and we'll see what happens with our lineup when we start on Sunday. This is an opportunity for guys to continue to work hard. We'll find out which guys are willing to work hard and listen and play within the system."

Natt is obviously calling someone out. Let's do a little digging.

Starters in that game:

PG: Bobby Jackson

SG: Kevin Martin

SF: Francisco Garcia

PF: Jason Thompson

C: Spencer Hawes

+/- in that game (best to worst):

Solomon: +13 in 13 minutes

McCants: +12 in 30 minutes

Nocioni: -4 in 18 minutes

Greene: -5 in 7 minutes

Hawes: -6 in 36 minutes

Garcia: -10 in 34 minutes

Jackson: -16 in 36 minutes

Martin: -24 in 33 minutes.

I don’t know who Natt is talking about, but this could get interesting. If someone gets benched, they might bite back at Natt and we could see a season-ending rendition of The Blame Game.

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Injuries have put Amare Stoudemire and Tracy McGrady out of commission and onto future NBA trade lists.

We've talked a lot about Amare, so not much to recap there except that he is developing quite a rep for getting hurt. T-Mac already was wearing that mantle.

Unfortunately, to follow (perhaps not exactly) the Chris Webber model, those are going to be the kind of guys we can get down the road if we want them. Talented guys who have worn out their welcome due to injury or attitude or both.

I haven't read in detail the stories about Adelman throwing McGrady under the bus after the T-Mac decided to have surgery, but it doesn't surprise me. That might be the last time you see T-Mac wearing a Rockets jersey.

I find it interesting that Artest called out T-Mac recently, and some folks were then pointing the finger at Ron, blaming him for the Rockets recent struggles. But if you look closer into that situation, there were a lot of mini-dramas going on in Houston.

Seems like they have decided to move on with Aaron Brooks at the point after dumping Alston. It looks like Artest will be playing some 2 guard for them, and Adelman will be paring down the lineup and playing 7-8 guys a lot like he did sometimes in Sacramento.

I think the Rockets are going to go off on a streak here and show that, as we have discussed, sometimes teams improve by addition through substraction. You have a superstar in Yao, three high basketball IQ guys who know how to play in Scola, Battier and Artest, and a young energy guy in Brooks. I think that team just got a lot more dangerous.

I also think the way the Rockets are going about things is going to be more of a model for NBA teams like Sacramento going forward. Instead of the 2-3 superstar model, which is hard to develop because it's difficult enough to get one superstar to sign on let alone 2-3, it's going to be more about building around one superstar with a bunch of solid players -- basically what we did in assembling our great teams around Webber. There's also a lot less risk in that model and it costs less to compete, which will be important as owners like the Maloofs face growing economic pressures.

Francisco Garcia is a paradox. We remember fondly his game-winning threes and his tough defense and savvy play at times while trying to forget some of the bonehead plays and pedestrian efforts he has also offered up with regularity. Excuses abound: he’s banged up, the team sucks, etc.

Some see him as a piece of our future. Others wouldn’t hesitate to move him, except that his recent contract extension doesn’t make it easy or desirable or possible to trade him until July 2010, as Pookey has explained here and here and here.

Which brings me to the 2005 draft. In Geoff Petrie, Draft Guru, we discussed some of the past drafts since Petrie took over. I said I would go back at some point and analyze draft by draft to see how Petrie did, using career win shares as the measuring stick. Naturally you could use other criteria, but let’s take a look at how it works in this case:

Of the 60 players taken in the 2005 draft, 36 are playing in the NBA this year. I may have missed a scrub or two, and naturally there are foreigners on the list like Fran Vasquez who haven’t showed up to play here or have played a bit and then been placed with a foreign club to get additional seasoning.

Anyway, here’s the ranking of players from that draft, listed with rank, name, win shares and original draft position:

1. Chris Paul, 46.2, drafted 4th.

2. Deron Williams, 25.7, 3rd.

3. Danny Granger, 25.2, 17th.

4. David Lee, 23.1, 30th.

5. Andrew Bogut, 17.2, 1st.

6. Marvin Williams, 15.7, 2nd.

7. Andrew Bynum, 14.6, 10th.

8. Monta Ellis, 14.0, 40th.

9. Ryan Gomes, 13.9, 50th.

10. Luther Head, 12.7, 24th.

11. Linas Kleiza, 12.1, 27th.

12. Charley Villanueva, 11.5, 7th.

13. Nate Robinson, 11.4, 21st.

14. Raymond Felton, 10.6, 5th.

15. Hakim Warrick, 10.6,19th.

16. Jarrett Jack, 10.1, 22nd.

17. Rony Turiaf, 10.1, 37th.

18. Jason Maxiell, 9.6, 26th.

19. FRANCISCO GARCIA, 9.4, 23rd.

20. Channing Frye, 7.8, 8th.

21. Louis Williams, 7.1, 45th.

22. Joey Graham, 6.5, 16th.

23. Brandon Bass, 6.4, 33rd.

24. Amir Johnson, 5.5, 56th.

25. Martell Webster, 5.4, 6th.

26. Ike Diogu, 5.1, 9th.

27. Travis Diener, 4.9, 38th.

28. Andray Blatche, 4.6, 49th.

29. C.J. Miles, 3.9, 34th.

30. Johan Petro, 3.1, 25th.

31. Rashad McCants, 2.9, 14th.

32. Sean May, 2.5, 13th.

33. Antoine Wright, 2.2, 15th.

34. Gerald Green, 1.7, 18th.

35. Marcin Gortat, 1.5, 57th.

36. Von Wafer, 0.6, 39th.

So Cisco ranks in the middle of the pack, the 19th best player chosen with the 23rd pick. So I guess Petrie gets a passing grade in that year. His pick has performed slightly above the position from where he was chosen. Based on that previous draft thread, some here might be easier to please and will consider it a victory that he is not a total bust.

One thing about this list based on a cold, calculating number is that it shows us how easy it is to fall in love with a guy because he’s “our guy” while undervaluing the guys with similar or better numbers toiling in other cities. Exhibit G captured this tendency well recently in This Is How You Remind Me.

Every year we over-analyze.  Around here, we step it up a notch and over-analyze on a daily basis.  Through this abundance of regurgitated information and micro-analysis of every tiny detail, we overvalue some players and undervalue others.  This is natural.  And I think that, to an extent, it gets worse the more you follow a player.  Case in point: Jason Thompson.

Quick sidenote: I am a huge fan of JT.  But he is a classic example of how we may overvalue a guy based on watching him every day.  We imagine what could be.  We see that magical potential.  Nothing has ruined more drafts that the idea of potential.  That moment when you suddenly forget that the forest is made up of the individual, proverbial trees.  Suddenly we're vehemently opposed to including a rookie in a deal for a proven all-star.

Stats are stats, and you can certainly make a case if you want that Cisco is better than some of the guys ranked above him. After all, he’s our guy.

At the same time, you can also make the case that there are guys ranked below him who you’d consider dealing Cisco for even up if money and trade restrictions weren’t factors. Guys like Brandon Bass, for instance. Gortat, near the very bottom of the list, backs up Dwight Howard and has some fans who see him as a great prospect if he could get playing time on another team.

Let’s not fall in love with our guys as we rebuild, and let’s not be unrealistic as we propose trades. It takes two to tango, and we have to give up value to get value, or the other teams are simply going to move on to the next prospective suitor.

We have some compelling assets. Let’s take a look at any deal put on the table and be cold and calcuating and see if we think it adds up to a better Kings team in the future, whether or not it includes our favorites wearing another jersey.

I will wrap up this Sunday hodgepodge by quoting from the Michael Lewis article that has drawn so much interest this weekend:

When Morey came to the Rockets, a huge chunk of the team’s allotted payroll — the N.B.A. caps payrolls and taxes teams that exceed them — was committed, for many years to come, to two superstars: Tracy ­McGrady and Yao Ming. Morey had to find ways to improve the Rockets without spending money. “We couldn’t afford another superstar,” he says, “so we went looking for nonsuperstars that we thought were undervalued.” He went looking, essentially, for underpaid players. “That’s the scarce resource in the N.B.A.,” he says. “Not the superstar but the undervalued player.”

If there is any blemish on the Petrie record that has allowed the team to sink to its current depths, it is his signing of mediocre players like Mikki Moore, Francisco Garcia and Beno Udrih to MLE contracts.

While other GMs are concentrating on freeing up money to pay for the necessary superstars by looking for value to fill out the roster, it seems Petrie has avoided adding superstars and instead has overpaid for what would be roster filler on other squads but ends up starting for ours. Let’s hope we’ve seen the last of that.

Geoff Petrie has gotten credit for being a pretty good judge of talent and for picking decent players in the draft while drafting in an average first-round position of 17th since 1995.

Let's run the list down:

* 1995: Corliss Willamson (13th).

* 1996: Peja Stojakovic (14th).

* 1997: Tariq Abdul-Wahad (11th).

* 1998: Jason Williams (7).

* 1999: No first-round pick.

* 2000: Hedo Turkoglu (16th).

* 2001: Gerald Wallace 25th).

* 2002: Dan Dickau (28th).

* 2003: No first-round pick.

* 2004: Kevin Martin (26th).

* 2005: Francisco Garcia (23rd).

* 2006: Quincy Douby (19th).

* 2007: Spencer Hawes (10th).

* 2008: Jason Thompson (12th).

So Petrie’s all-time Kings draft team could look like this:

* F: Stojakovic, Turkoglu.

* C: Hawes.

* G: Martin, Williams.

Along the way, here are some of the names that were drafted after Petrie made his first-round pick in those drafts:

* 1995: Michael Finley.

* 1996: Steve Nash, Jermaine O’Neal.

* 1997: Bobby Jackson.

* 1998: Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce, Rashard Lewis.

* 1999: No first-round pick.

* 2000: Michael Redd.

* 2001: Tony Parker, Gilbert Arenas, Mehmet Okur.

* 2002: Carlos Boozer, Luis Scola.

* 2003: No first-round pick.

* 2004: Nobody better than Kevin.

* 2005: David Lee, Monta Ellis.

* 2006: Rajon Rondo, Paul Millsap.

* 2007: Al Thornton, Rodney Stuckey, Rudy Fernandez, Carl Landry, Aaron Brooks.

* 2008: A few guys have similar though lesser numbers.

Possible “They Got Away” first string:

* F: Nowitzki, Boozer with Pierce off the bench.

* C: O’Neal with Okur in reserve.

* SG: Michael Redd backed up by Finley or Ellis.

* PG: Nash over Parker and Arenas (not to mention Rondo).

Now, I realize this is a tough and probably unfair exercise, and in some cases Petrie was not the only GM to miss out on better guys. At the same time, if Petrie is going to pick our point guard or power forward of the future next year, I hope he can avoid missing out on any more future Hall of Famers.

One other observation: while most of the truly premier players are top draft picks, the process is not perfect and high-quality players can linger for a long time on the board. So maybe we can pick up two future stars in the making next year.

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We have had a lot of discussions about Kevin Martin and the pros and cons of various Kings players and what it takes to build a champion. I came across this article a while back and have been meaning to post it for discussion:

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If they aren't part of the plan, send them to the bench. Give me an eight-man rotation.

• Up front: Give me a three-man rotation of Hawes, JT and Shelden.

• PG: Play Brown more than Beno.

• SG-SF: Play Garcia and Greene more than Salmons. When Martin comes back, take most of the minutes away from Salmons aka The Black Hole.

The rest of guys should sit and maybe get a little mop-up duty while we work on trades to get them out of Dodge.

Let's try this trade, forms of which have been explored here before, I believe:

Miller, Moore and Jackson for Marbury and David Lee

The Kings get an expiring $20 million contract in Marbury and free up playing time for Hawes and JT, who join with David Lee to form a promising young frontcourt that could solve the Kings needs up front for years.

The Knicks get rid of a major distraction and get something decent in return that also expires in due course.

Naturally if we could get a pick in the process, I am all for it.