SB Nation User Blog: coolcatreportdotcom

Kings Player Rankings Revisited

coolcatreportdotcom — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:56:03 -0000

I posted player rankings 10 days ago, and I thought I would revisit it to see what has changed since then.

The quick answer: a lot, including Kevin Martin's injury and the emergence of some of the players.

Rankings followed by player and projected minutes per game. Previous rankings and minutes in parentheses:

1. Thompson 34 (2, 34) Young fella is becoming a double-double machine. Heart of the team.
2. Evans 32 (4, 30) Starting to get it together. Top ROY candidate. Learning to get his AND make team better.

3. Udrih 32 (8, 10) Making a fan even out of the most hardboiled cynic. Great QB and playing solid D.

4. Nocioni 28 (6, 22) Solid vet making presence felt.

5. Hawes 28 (5, 28) Quietly settling into role player status.

6. Casspi 24 (3, 30) Westphal pushing all the right buttons with bright young star.
7. Udoka 20 (unranked) New player adds defensive edge without being a zero on offense.

8. Greene 16 (12, 4) Recent play puts him back in the mix, adds physical presence to bench.
9. May 10 (9, 8) Still the top bench option to back up JT and Hawes.
10. Thomas 8 (13, 0) Has fought his way out of the doghouse and into backup PF minutes.

11. Brockman 4 (10, 8) Entertaining hustler who will be a second quarter-garbage time delight.
12. Rodriguez 4 (11, 8) Starting to play better in limited minutes.

Injured list:

* Martin (1, 40). Are the Kings a better team without Kevin?

* Garcia (didn't mention him last time).

Waived

* Mason (7, 18). Became too much of an offensive liability. Udoka a better option.

Kings Player Rankings

coolcatreportdotcom — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:26:50 -0000

It's early, and the sample size is admittedly small, but here's my take, subject to ongoing analysis (playing time per game in parentheses):

1. Martin 40 (really no other true 2 guard on the team without Cisco)
2. Thompson 34 (love the way he runs the court and picks up cheap garbage hustle buckets)
3. Casspi 30 (as pointed out, should start at SF)
4. Evans 30 (only a rookie, will get better, needs to learn to depend high post screens)
5. Hawes 28 (not a big fan, but he's all we got, so play him)
6. Nocioni 22 (tweener who is too slow for SF and too small for PF, but a gritty vet nonetheless)
7. Mason 18 (defense should earn him minutes behind both Casspi and Martin)
8. Udrih 10 (showcase him for a trade at midseason to someone stupid)
9. May 8 (hopefully he will get better)
10. Brockman 8 (he earned more minutes last night)
11. Rodriguez 8 (serviceable backup PG at best)
12. Greene 4 (Casspi's play makes him expendable)
13. Thomas (see No. 10)

Finding the draft’s best players

coolcatreportdotcom — Fri, 22 May 2009 10:01:22 -0000

From 1992-2006, the best player in each NBA draft as determined by career win shares (per Basketball Reference) has been available with the fourth pick of the draft roughly half the time, or in seven of the 15 drafts.

The No. 1 pick turned out to be the best player in the draft in six of the 15 years, and two other players were chosen with either the No. 2 or No. 3 pick. In 11 of the 15 years, the best player was chosen in the first six picks.

Naturally, depending on how good this draft turns out to be, the Kings should be able to land a quality player at No. 4. The real shame is missing the No. 1 pick, but once you get beyond that, it’s a crapshoot.

And this is just a look at the best players in each draft.

* 1992: Shaquille O’Neal #1

* 1993: Chris Webber #1

* 1994: Jason Kidd #2

* 1995: Kevin Garnett #5

* 1996: Kobe Bryant #13

* 1997: Tim Duncan #1

* 1998: Dirk Nowitzki #9

* 1999: Shawn Marion #9

* 2000: Hedo Turkoglu #16

* 2001: Pau Gasol #3

* 2002: Yao Ming #1

* 2003: LeBron James #1

* 2004: Dwight Howard #1

* 2005: Chris Paul #4

* 2006: Brandon Roy #6

By draft pick:

* No. 1: 6 players (O’Neal, Webber, Duncan, Ming, James, Howard).

* No. 2: 1 player (Kidd).

* No. 3: 1 player (Gasol).

* No. 4: 1 player (Paul).

* No. 5: 1 player (Garnett).

* No. 6: 1 player (Roy).

* No. 9: 2 players (Nowitzki, Marion).

* No. 13: 1 player (Bryant).

* No. 16: 1 player (Turkoglu).

Let’s look at this another way, because naturally multiple impact players can come out of the same draft. Here are the top 25 active players in win shares and where they were drafted:

1. Shaquille O’Neal: 1992 #1

2. Kevin Garnett: 1995 #5

3. Tim Duncan: 1997 #1

4. Kobe Bryant: 1996 #13

5. Dirk Nowitzki: 1998 #9

6. Dikembe Mutumbo: 1991 #4

7. Jason Kidd: 1994 #2

8. Ray Allen: 1996 #5

9. Paul Pierce: 1998 #10

10. Steve Nash: 1996 #15

11. Shawn Marion: 1999 #9

12. Allen Iverson: 1996 #1

13. Rasheed Wallace: 1995 #4

14. Chauncey Billups: 1997 #3

15. Tracy McGrady: 1997 #9

16. Vince Carter: 1998 #5

17. Grant Hill: 1994 #3

18. Michael Finley: 1995 #21

19. Ben Wallace: 1996 Undrafted

20. LeBron James: 2003 #1

21. Elton Brand: 1999 #1

22. Peja Stojakovic: 1996 #14

23. Stephon Marbury: 1996 #4

24. Rashard Lewis: 1998 #32

25. Andre Miller: 1999 #9.

Five No. 1s, one No. 2 and two No. 3s, so 17 of the 25 were still available when the No. 4 pick rolled around.

Artest, Rockets earn some respect

coolcatreportdotcom — Sat, 02 May 2009 03:29:58 -0000

A long way from the Palace at Auburn Hills four seasons ago, a long way from NBA pariah, Artest sat down 10 rows back in the Toyota Center and let the love wash over him. He wanted to linger, commune, so Ron Artest just sat there. From the left and right, they quickly closed on him and he disappeared into wave upon wave of fans touching and hugging and thanking him. As security rushed to release Artest, the truth had never been so clear with him: Victory has long been confused with virtue in sports, but as a basketball star, Ron Artest was free again.

Artest fuels Rockets’ surge to second round

Adrian Wojnarowski, Yahoo! Sports

It's nice to see fans who can appreciate talent and are committed to winning. I am happy for the Rocket fans, happy for Artest and sad for the Kings fans who never appreciated what they had, and still can't now that it is gone.

Do the Rockets have what it takes to give the Lakers a run for their money? I don't know, but I am sure going to enjoy watching some quality playoff basketball.

NCAA Brackets: Do YOU have what it takes?

coolcatreportdotcom — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 02:55:28 -0000

Like last year, I've created a group at Yahoo! Sports called Sactown Madness. If you are 18 and in the continental US and agree to give up your first-born child, you can enter for a chance to win $10,000 if you pick the best bracket. That goes up to $5 million if you have the perfect bracket. And it will track the standings and determine who from this board has picked the best bracket --aka "bragging rights."

Give me your best shot. They don't include the play-in game Tuesday in the contest, so all entries are due by the tip-off of the first game Thursday morning.

Click this link and join the group. Here is the rest of the info you need to join:

Private Group Name: Sactown Madness.

Password: Sactown.

Bracket Name: Bracket Busters

After that, just fill out your bracket. Best of luck to all who take part.

If you entered last year's contest, you should have already received an invitation to join this group. I'll provide any other details as they become available.

Kenny Natt is Mad and Not Going to Take It Any More

coolcatreportdotcom — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 16:02:44 -0000

(From the FanPosts. - TZ)

In Amick's Friday missive, Kenny Natt unloaded on the team's poor defensive play and effort against the Pacers and hinted at lineup changes.

"From my standpoint, what I need to do is pull guys out of the game that don't want to play. Guys who don't play with effort, that's who I'll start pulling out of the game. I've made it very clear to them that that's where we're going from now on.

Even in a developing situation, you can't stay in a basketball game if (they're) not going to play. If you think that you're going to stay in the game (without playing hard), you're going to be sitting over there with me. That's what they have to understand.

"We have another couple of days here, and we'll see what happens with our lineup when we start on Sunday. This is an opportunity for guys to continue to work hard. We'll find out which guys are willing to work hard and listen and play within the system."

Natt is obviously calling someone out. Let's do a little digging.

Starters in that game:

PG: Bobby Jackson

SG: Kevin Martin

SF: Francisco Garcia

PF: Jason Thompson

C: Spencer Hawes

+/- in that game (best to worst):

Solomon: +13 in 13 minutes

McCants: +12 in 30 minutes

Nocioni: -4 in 18 minutes

Greene: -5 in 7 minutes

Hawes: -6 in 36 minutes

Garcia: -10 in 34 minutes

Jackson: -16 in 36 minutes

Martin: -24 in 33 minutes.

I don’t know who Natt is talking about, but this could get interesting. If someone gets benched, they might bite back at Natt and we could see a season-ending rendition of The Blame Game.

Ranking the NBA Centers

coolcatreportdotcom — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 07:01:10 -0000

One of the posters on the Ranking the Kings Players thread asked for a similar analysis of the NBA centers. Let's take a look:

RNK	Player	Min	PER	MIN*PER
1	Dwight Howard, ORL	36.3	25.7	933
2	Al Jefferson, MIN	36.7	23.3	854
3	Pau Gasol, LAL	36.7	22.1	811
4	Yao Ming, HOU	32.8	23.3	764
5	Zach Randolph, LAL	35.9	19.7	707
6	David Lee, NYK	35.5	19.0	675
7	Marcus Camby, LAC	33.5	20.1	674
8	Shaquille O'Neal, PHO	30.3	21.7	658
9	Emeka Okafor, CHA	33.9	19.2	652
10	Mehmet Okur, UTH	35	18.5	648
11	Andris Biedrins, GSW	31	20.6	640
12	Nene, DEN	32.7	19.3	629
13	Chris Kaman, LAC	35.5	16.8	595
14	Andrew Bynum, LAL	29.1	20.1	586
15	Al Harrington, NYK	34.8	15.2	529
16	Brook Lopez, NJN	29.9	17.5	523
17	Al Horford, ATL	31.8	16.4	521
18	Zydrunas Ilgauskas, CLE	27.1	19.1	517
19	Andrew Bogut, MIL	31.2	16.6	517
20	Rasheed Wallace, DET	33.5	14.9	499
21	Brad Miller, CHI	31.5	15.8	498
22	Jermaine O'Neal, MIA	29.7	16.1	477
23	Marc Gasol, MEM	29.9	15.9	475
24	Tyson Chandler, NO	31.1	14.1	439
25	Greg Oden, POR	22.9	17.8	408
26	Andrea Bargnani, TOR	30.5	13.2	403
27	Matt Bonner, SAS	23.5	16.6	391
28	Kendrick Perkins, BOS	28.7	13.2	379
29	Erick Dampier, DAL	23.6	15.8	373
30	Andray Blatche, WASH	23.3	15.9	370
31	Joel Przybilla, POR	22.1	15.9	351
32	Joakim Noah, CHI	21.6	15.3	330
33	Spencer Hawes, SAC	27.4	12.0	329
34	Samuel Dalembert, PHI	24.8	12.9	320
35	Nenad Krstic, OKC	23.1	12.8	296
36	Roy Hibbert, IND	12.2	17.1	209

You can certainly disagree with the list. Generally I tried to identify a team's starting center. In some cases I listed two. I have no idea who the Knicks center is, and I don't think they do, either. They started Jared Jeffries last night.

It's pretty much the same with the Clippers with Kaman out.

I also listed both Noah and Brad Miller for the Bulls. Brad didn't shoot much tonight in his Bulls debut, but he did grab 10 rebounds in 19 minutes.

Oden and Pryzbilla man the Portland middle in a center-by-committee setup. Not much difference in their stats, and if you add them together they move up near the top of the list.

You'll notice Spencer down towards the bottom of the listings. Yes, I know, he's 20. So is Brook Lopez. But Al Jefferson was also 20 and riding pine not that long ago, and he's turned out pretty good. I guess we'll just have to take it a day at a time. Among the other good young centers, Horford and Biedrins are both 22.

I also listed Pau Gasol as a center as that's what he's playing since Bynum is hurt. Naturally there are other guys like Duncan who are forward-centers. Al Jefferson is another in that camp.

There really are a lack of real superstars at the center position, but there's quite a few solid starters.

Ranking the Kings players

coolcatreportdotcom — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 00:42:35 -0000

Trying to quickly digest what we have, I ran some quick numbers on both the holdovers and incoming players on a "what have you done for me lately" basis.

I took this season's PER and multiplied it times minutes per game to get a quick and dirty analysis on how the players stack up based on this year's performance. Here's what I came up with:

1. Kevin Martin, PER 19.2, MIN 38.1 = 732.

2. Drew Gooden, PER 15.4, MIN 29.6 = 456.

3. Beno Udrih, PER 12.7, MIN 30.3 = 385.

4. Francisco Garcia, PER 14.0, MIN 26.8 = 375.

5. Jason Thompson, PER 13.2, MIN 26.6 = 351.

6. Spencer Hawes, PER 12.0, MIN 27.2 = 326.

7. Andres Nocioni, PER 11.4, MIN 24.1 = 275.

8. Bobby Jackson, PER 11.3, MIN 19.0 = 215.

9. Rashad McCants, PER 10.0, MIN 18.7 = 187.

10. Will Solomon, PER 13.9, MIN 12.8 = 178.

11. Donte Greene, PER 7.8, MIN 12.9 = 101.

12. Cedric Simmons, PER 18.0, MIN 5.5 = 99.

13. Kenny Thomas, PER 8.8, MIN 7.8 = 69.

14. Ike Diogu, PER 11.5, MIN 3.8 = 44.

15. Calvin Booth, PER 39.7, MIN 1.0 = 40.

Just for comparison, let’s take a last look at the two key guys we shipped out as well as a guy who plays for Cleveland:

John Salmons, PER 16.2, MIN 37.4 = 606.

Brad Miller, PER 15.9, MIIN 31.5 = 501.

LeBron James, PER 32.0, MIN 37.6 = 1,203.

It’s pretty obvious this Kings team is now officially Kevin Martin and everyone else.

If you assumed the players will play about the same amount of minutes they’ve played this year, you’d start to run out of minutes after McCants. If you take Gooden out of the equation while he is hurt, that would extend through Donte.

Since Brad Miller played his last game for the Kings Jan. 30, Spencer has averaged 34 minutes a game and JT more than 31. I’d expect that to continue. Donte played 18 minutes last night and I’d think he’s going to get about that a night if not more going forward. I don’t think we have enough point guard minutes available to see much of Solomon, but who knows.

My guess is that Simmons, Thomas and Booth aren’t going to suit up much going forward.

Nocioni, McCants and Diogu have all posted better numbers in previous seasons.

The superstar list grows as the Rockets move on

coolcatreportdotcom — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 22:37:40 -0000

Injuries have put Amare Stoudemire and Tracy McGrady out of commission and onto future NBA trade lists.

We've talked a lot about Amare, so not much to recap there except that he is developing quite a rep for getting hurt. T-Mac already was wearing that mantle.

Unfortunately, to follow (perhaps not exactly) the Chris Webber model, those are going to be the kind of guys we can get down the road if we want them. Talented guys who have worn out their welcome due to injury or attitude or both.

I haven't read in detail the stories about Adelman throwing McGrady under the bus after the T-Mac decided to have surgery, but it doesn't surprise me. That might be the last time you see T-Mac wearing a Rockets jersey.

I find it interesting that Artest called out T-Mac recently, and some folks were then pointing the finger at Ron, blaming him for the Rockets recent struggles. But if you look closer into that situation, there were a lot of mini-dramas going on in Houston.

Seems like they have decided to move on with Aaron Brooks at the point after dumping Alston. It looks like Artest will be playing some 2 guard for them, and Adelman will be paring down the lineup and playing 7-8 guys a lot like he did sometimes in Sacramento.

I think the Rockets are going to go off on a streak here and show that, as we have discussed, sometimes teams improve by addition through substraction. You have a superstar in Yao, three high basketball IQ guys who know how to play in Scola, Battier and Artest, and a young energy guy in Brooks. I think that team just got a lot more dangerous.

I also think the way the Rockets are going about things is going to be more of a model for NBA teams like Sacramento going forward. Instead of the 2-3 superstar model, which is hard to develop because it's difficult enough to get one superstar to sign on let alone 2-3, it's going to be more about building around one superstar with a bunch of solid players -- basically what we did in assembling our great teams around Webber. There's also a lot less risk in that model and it costs less to compete, which will be important as owners like the Maloofs face growing economic pressures.

Cisco, the 2005 Draft and a Sunday Hodgepodge

coolcatreportdotcom — Sun, 15 Feb 2009 20:24:09 -0000

Francisco Garcia is a paradox. We remember fondly his game-winning threes and his tough defense and savvy play at times while trying to forget some of the bonehead plays and pedestrian efforts he has also offered up with regularity. Excuses abound: he’s banged up, the team sucks, etc.

Some see him as a piece of our future. Others wouldn’t hesitate to move him, except that his recent contract extension doesn’t make it easy or desirable or possible to trade him until July 2010, as Pookey has explained here and here and here.

Which brings me to the 2005 draft. In Geoff Petrie, Draft Guru, we discussed some of the past drafts since Petrie took over. I said I would go back at some point and analyze draft by draft to see how Petrie did, using career win shares as the measuring stick. Naturally you could use other criteria, but let’s take a look at how it works in this case:

Of the 60 players taken in the 2005 draft, 36 are playing in the NBA this year. I may have missed a scrub or two, and naturally there are foreigners on the list like Fran Vasquez who haven’t showed up to play here or have played a bit and then been placed with a foreign club to get additional seasoning.

Anyway, here’s the ranking of players from that draft, listed with rank, name, win shares and original draft position:

1. Chris Paul, 46.2, drafted 4th.

2. Deron Williams, 25.7, 3rd.

3. Danny Granger, 25.2, 17th.

4. David Lee, 23.1, 30th.

5. Andrew Bogut, 17.2, 1st.

6. Marvin Williams, 15.7, 2nd.

7. Andrew Bynum, 14.6, 10th.

8. Monta Ellis, 14.0, 40th.

9. Ryan Gomes, 13.9, 50th.

10. Luther Head, 12.7, 24th.

11. Linas Kleiza, 12.1, 27th.

12. Charley Villanueva, 11.5, 7th.

13. Nate Robinson, 11.4, 21st.

14. Raymond Felton, 10.6, 5th.

15. Hakim Warrick, 10.6,19th.

16. Jarrett Jack, 10.1, 22nd.

17. Rony Turiaf, 10.1, 37th.

18. Jason Maxiell, 9.6, 26th.

19. FRANCISCO GARCIA, 9.4, 23rd.

20. Channing Frye, 7.8, 8th.

21. Louis Williams, 7.1, 45th.

22. Joey Graham, 6.5, 16th.

23. Brandon Bass, 6.4, 33rd.

24. Amir Johnson, 5.5, 56th.

25. Martell Webster, 5.4, 6th.

26. Ike Diogu, 5.1, 9th.

27. Travis Diener, 4.9, 38th.

28. Andray Blatche, 4.6, 49th.

29. C.J. Miles, 3.9, 34th.

30. Johan Petro, 3.1, 25th.

31. Rashad McCants, 2.9, 14th.

32. Sean May, 2.5, 13th.

33. Antoine Wright, 2.2, 15th.

34. Gerald Green, 1.7, 18th.

35. Marcin Gortat, 1.5, 57th.

36. Von Wafer, 0.6, 39th.

So Cisco ranks in the middle of the pack, the 19th best player chosen with the 23rd pick. So I guess Petrie gets a passing grade in that year. His pick has performed slightly above the position from where he was chosen. Based on that previous draft thread, some here might be easier to please and will consider it a victory that he is not a total bust.

One thing about this list based on a cold, calculating number is that it shows us how easy it is to fall in love with a guy because he’s “our guy” while undervaluing the guys with similar or better numbers toiling in other cities. Exhibit G captured this tendency well recently in This Is How You Remind Me.

Every year we over-analyze. Around here, we step it up a notch and over-analyze on a daily basis. Through this abundance of regurgitated information and micro-analysis of every tiny detail, we overvalue some players and undervalue others. This is natural. And I think that, to an extent, it gets worse the more you follow a player. Case in point: Jason Thompson.
Quick sidenote: I am a huge fan of JT. But he is a classic example of how we may overvalue a guy based on watching him every day. We imagine what could be. We see that magical potential. Nothing has ruined more drafts that the idea of potential. That moment when you suddenly forget that the forest is made up of the individual, proverbial trees. Suddenly we're vehemently opposed to including a rookie in a deal for a proven all-star.

Stats are stats, and you can certainly make a case if you want that Cisco is better than some of the guys ranked above him. After all, he’s our guy.

At the same time, you can also make the case that there are guys ranked below him who you’d consider dealing Cisco for even up if money and trade restrictions weren’t factors. Guys like Brandon Bass, for instance. Gortat, near the very bottom of the list, backs up Dwight Howard and has some fans who see him as a great prospect if he could get playing time on another team.

Let’s not fall in love with our guys as we rebuild, and let’s not be unrealistic as we propose trades. It takes two to tango, and we have to give up value to get value, or the other teams are simply going to move on to the next prospective suitor.

We have some compelling assets. Let’s take a look at any deal put on the table and be cold and calcuating and see if we think it adds up to a better Kings team in the future, whether or not it includes our favorites wearing another jersey.

I will wrap up this Sunday hodgepodge by quoting from the Michael Lewis article that has drawn so much interest this weekend:

When Morey came to the Rockets, a huge chunk of the team’s allotted payroll — the N.B.A. caps payrolls and taxes teams that exceed them — was committed, for many years to come, to two superstars: Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. Morey had to find ways to improve the Rockets without spending money. “We couldn’t afford another superstar,” he says, “so we went looking for nonsuperstars that we thought were undervalued.” He went looking, essentially, for underpaid players. “That’s the scarce resource in the N.B.A.,” he says. “Not the superstar but the undervalued player.”

If there is any blemish on the Petrie record that has allowed the team to sink to its current depths, it is his signing of mediocre players like Mikki Moore, Francisco Garcia and Beno Udrih to MLE contracts.

While other GMs are concentrating on freeing up money to pay for the necessary superstars by looking for value to fill out the roster, it seems Petrie has avoided adding superstars and instead has overpaid for what would be roster filler on other squads but ends up starting for ours. Let’s hope we’ve seen the last of that.