SB Nation User Blog: coolcatreportdotcom

Measuring the progress of a young team

coolcatreportdotcom — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 22:42:50 -0000

The Kings are 11-13 overall, 10-3 at home, but just 1-10 on the road. If they were to keep up that pace, they’d win 31.54 games at home and just 3.73 games on the road for a total of 35.27 wins.

I think most would consider that a successful season, although the strong play of our young team despite missing Kevin Martin and Francisco Garcia has teased us into hoping for more and expecting more when those two return to the court.

There’s been some talk of formulas to measure the progress of a young team, and three were put forth in the Kings-Blazers post-game thread.

Otis:

1. Win games at home versus bad teams.
2. Win games on the road versus bad teams.
3. Beat good teams at home.
4. Beat good teams on the road.

ForThree:

1. Win the vast majority of games at home against bad teams.
2. Win half your games at home against good teams.
3. Win half your games on the road against bad teams.
4. Beat good teams regularly at home.
5. Win .400 of road games overall (you’re a playoff team here)
6. Win .500 on the road.

Kfan:

1. 20 wins at home – 10 road = 30 wins (poor team).

2. 25 wins at home – 15 road = 40 wins (borderline playoff team).

3. 30 wins at home – 20 road = 50 wins (home court contender).

4. 35 wins at home – 25 road = 60 wins (title contender).

I am not sure what constitutes a good vs. bad team, and there’s probably room for average in there, but that would tend to make things a little too messy. Probably better to just use above .500 as a gauge of good teams and below that mark to indicate bad teams. I am going to call .500 Oklahoma City a good team for purposes of this exercise.

Anyway, let’s see how the Kings are stacking up by these three sets of criteria:

1. Win games at home versus bad teams (8-1, PASS).
* Nov 2: MEM (.400), W 127-116

* Nov 8: GSW (.280), W 120-107

* Nov 17: CHI (.375), L 87-101

* Nov 25: NYK (.320), W 111-97

* Nov 27: NJN (.077), W 109-96

* Nov 29: NOR (.458), W 112-96

* Dec 2: IND (.391), W 110-105

* Dec 12: MIN (.154), W 120-100

* Dec 16: WAS (.304), W 112-109

2. Win games on the road versus bad teams (0-3, FAIL).
* Oct 30: @ NOR (.458), L 92-97

* Nov 23: @ MEM (.400), L 105-116

* Dec 8: @ NOR (.458), L 94-96

3. Beat good teams at home (2-2, PASS/FAIL).
* Nov 4: ATL (.750), L 105-113

* Nov 10: OKC (.500), W 101-98

* Nov 13: HOU (.560), W 109-100

* Dec 6: MIA (.542), L 102-115

4. Beat good teams on the road (1-7, FAIL).

* Oct 28: @ OKC (.500), L 89-102

* Oct 31: @ SAS (.565), L 94-113

* Nov 7: @ UTH(.600), W 104-99

* Nov 20: @ DAL (.731), L 102-104

* Nov 21: @ HOU (.560), L 106-113

* Dec 5: @ PHO (.654), L 107-115

* Dec 9: @ SAS (.565), L 106-118

* Dec 15: @ POR (.593), L 88-95

ForThree:

1. Win the vast majority of games at home against bad teams (7-1, PASS).
2. Win half your games at home against good teams (2-2, PASS).
3. Win half your games on the road against bad teams (0-3, FAIL).
4. Beat good teams regularly at home (2-2, FAIL).
5. Win .400 of road games overall (you’re a playoff team here), (1-10, FAIL).
6. Win .500 on the road (1-10, FAIL).

Kfan:

1. 20 wins at home – 10 road = 30 wins (poor team).

2. 25 wins at home – 15 road = 40 wins (borderline playoff team).

3. 30 wins at home – 20 road = 50 wins (home court contender).

4. 35 wins at home – 25 road = 60 wins (title contender).

We’re on pace for more than 31-32 home wins and less than four road wins, so FAIL across the board.

It’s still a pretty small sample size to draw any conclusions from. We’ve had a loss of success at home, but we need to improve our performance on the road. I’m pretty confident this team is going to win more than four road games, but winning more than 30 home games would definitely be a surprise.

How much are the Kings players worth?

coolcatreportdotcom — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:50:59 -0000

I wrote a post the other day assessing Beno’s salary value: Here it is:

If the average player makes about $5.85 million a year and there are 15 players on each roster and the average player thus plays 16 minutes a game, would it be fair to conclude that a guy who makes $5.85 million and plays 16 minutes a game with a (so they say) average PER of 15 is fair value?

If so, how much is Beno worth playing 30 minutes a game with a PER of 17.3?

If X / $5.85M = 30*17.3 / 16*15, X = $12.65M a year.

So is Beno a bargain?

After thinking about it a bit I tweaked the formula to include the team’s winning percentage. My rationale is that it’s harder to get playing time on a good team than it is a bad team.

I started thinking about the Kings players stack up and what they are worth this season and what they were worth last year.

The basic stats (minutes played, PER) come from Basketball Reference. Again, here’s the formula:

X (Player’s Salary Value) / $5.85 million = Minutes per game X PER X Team’s Winning Percentage / Average of 16 minutes per game X Average PER of 15 X Average Team Winning Percentage of .500

Injuries hurt a player’s value, so instead of using minutes played per game the player played in, I used minutes played for all the team’s games.

I eliminated all players who were not with the team for the entire season just to make things a little easier to calculate.

Here are the findings:

2008-09 Kings Salary Values (Team Winning Percentage of .207)

* Kevin Martin, $4,600,000

* Jason Thompson, $3,939,000

* Spencer Hawes, $3,614,000

* Beno Udrih, $3,436,000

* Francisco Garcia, $3,427,000

* Donte Greene, $464,000

* Kenny Thomas, $67,000

2009-10 Kings Salary Values (Team Winning Percentage of .455 in 22 games)

* Tyreke Evans, $14,330,000

* Jason Thompson, $13,367,000

* Beno Udrih, $10,466,000

* Spencer Hawes, $8,773,000

* Omri Casspi, $7,279,000

* Andres Nocioni, $6,800,000

* Kevin Martin, $5,331,000

* Donte Greene, $5,219,000

* Sergio Rodriguez, $5,158,000

* Kenny Thomas, $2,218,000

* Jon Brockman, $2,179,000

* Sean May, $613,000

* Francisco Garcia, $0

TOTAL: $81.12 million (does not include Udoka and Mason)

Kevin Martin’s numbers are hurt by his injury problems. If you gave him as many minutes as Tyreke this year and he played at the same level he displayed in his five games, his salary value would be $19,284,000.

It appears the Kings are getting good value for the most part. Hawes’ numbers may be the biggest surprise.

Future Pillars of the Franchise

coolcatreportdotcom — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:48:22 -0000

The guys that matter are Tyreke, Kevin, JT, Spencer, Garcia, maybe Casspi/Dé3 and Noc/Beno because of their contracts.

That’s what ForThree said in a very effective post in the Taking Stock thread, and I thought I’d start a discussion, perhaps premature but inevitable, on who fits where when our injured players return and we are at full strength.

There’s lots of versatility in the group ForThree isolates as the future pillars of the franchise:

* PGs: Tyreke, Beno, Garcia in a pinch.

* SGs: Tyreke, Kevin, Garcia, Casspi in a pinch.

* SFs: Nocioni, Casspi, Greene, Garcia, Kevin in a pinch.

* PFs: JT, Spencer, Nocioni, Greene.

* C: Spencer, JT.

I really think we need to find a way to get Casspi and Greene into the starting lineup eventually. I think Donte is going to have to learn to emerge as a power forward.

I really don't see minutes for Garcia at the 3 when he comes back and I frankly think he will be battling Beno for minutes when everyone is healthy. It wouldn't surprise me to see Beno and Tyreke continue to start as guards with Kevin as supersub and quick energy off the bench and Garcia playing maybe 10-20 minutes a game.

Nocioni is a quandary, and his contract probably makes him the one to go at some point. But until that point you still have to pencil him as the starter, particularly when the other team has a go-to scorer at the 3 or 4 that he matches up with well. Casspi and Donte still make youthful mistakes, but they also bring a nice set of skills into the game, particularly their ability to hit the three ball, which I’d like to see as a bigger part of our offense. We’re getting stripped a lot because of our emphasis on taking the ball to the cup, and I hope we evolve to more of the inside-out, quick around-the-horn passing game which we have used effectively at times this year.

That leaves JT and Spencer to man the big men positions with plenty of reserves. I’d really like to see us stick with the current crew and try to strengthen this area through the draft rather than taking on any huge contracts via trade unless a deal comes down that both makes us a better team and makes financial sense. Nothing that has been thrown out so far meets those two criteria in my eyes.

The League is Catching Up to Jason Thompson

coolcatreportdotcom — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 17:18:58 -0000

After showing us a glimpse of the player he can become with five double-doubles and playing a key role in our four-game winning streak, it looks like the league is finally catching up to Jason Thompson.

He has regressed into some of last year's tendencies, of whining and moaning with each call and break that goes against him, and he seems to have lost some of the composure he displayed earlier in the year. Joakim Noah and Drew Gooden schooled him and outboarded him, and whoever he covered last night seemed to have no trouble getting to the rim or grabbing rebounds. The Rockets scored at will in the paint for the most part.

Meanwhile, JT had five rebounds last night, and the Kings third-quarter rally came with him riding pine and the Kings resuming their rebounding and defensive ways of their recent best play.

On Twitter the other day, JT said he was hoping to return to Dallas for All-Star weekend. Maybe it's time to shut down the All-Star talk, even for the sophomore game, stop reading the press clippings and this site, play your best, get back to being a double-double machine, help the Kings win and let the chips fall where they may.

Okafor vs. Our Bigs

coolcatreportdotcom — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:43:01 -0000

Though this deal appears to be dead, I thought I’d take a quick look at Emeka Okafor’s stats and compare them to the guys he could take minutes from if the Kings did the deal that Amick said was in the works: Spencer Hawes, Kenny Thomas and John Brockman.

Spencer Hawes: $2.3 million, $3.0 million, $4.1 million.

* 29.6 minutes per game, 42% FGs, 86% FTs.

* Per 36 minutes: 2.4 OReb, 6.4 DReb, 8.8 TReb, 2.2 A, 2.7 TOs, 0.8 steals, 1.6 Bl, 3.8 PFs, 12.7 points.

Jon Brockman: $458,000, $932,000.

* 8.6 minutes per game, 62% FGs, 33% FTs.

* Per 36 Minutes: 7.2 OReb, 6.6 DReb, 13.8 TReb, 1.2 A, 1.2 TOs, 0.0 steals, 0.0 Bl, 7.8 PFs, 11.3 points.

Kenny Thomas: $8.8 million.

* 13.4 minutes per game, 43% FGs, 83% FTs.

* Per 36 Minutes: 5.4 OReb, 7.5 DReb, 12.9 TReb, 1.1 A, 2.7 TOs, 0.5 steals, 1.1 Bl, 3.2 PFs, 5.9 points.

Emeka Okafor: $10.8 million, $11.8 million, $12.8 million, $13.8 million, $14.8 million.

* 29.5 minutes per game, 51% FGs, 56% FTs.

* Per 36 Minutes: 3.6 OReb, 8.0 DReb, 11.6 TReb, 0.8 A, 2.1 TOs, 0.6 steals, 2.3 Bl, 3.8 PFs, 12.8 points.

Rankings

* Minutes per game: Hawes 29.6, Okafor 29.5, Thomas 13.4, Brockman 8.6.

* FG%: Brockman 62%, Okafor 51%, Thomas 43%, Hawes 42%.

* FT%: Hawes 86%, Thomas 83%, Okafor 56%, Brockman 33%.

Per 36 Minutes

* Offensive Rebounds: Brockman 7.2, Thomas 5.4, Okafor 3.6, Hawes 2.4.

* Defensive Rebounds: Okafor 8.0, Thomas 7.5, Brockman 6.6, Hawes 6.4.

* Total Rebounds: Brockman 13.8, Thomas 12.9, Okafor 11.6, Hawes 8.8.

* Assists: Hawes 2.2, Brockman 1.2, Thomas 1.1, Okafor 0.8.

* Turnovers: Brockman 1.2, Okafor 2.1, Thomas 2.7, Hawes 2.7.

* Steals: Hawes 0.8, Okafor 0.6, Thomas 0.5, Brockman 0.0.

* Blocks: Okafor 2.3, Hawes 1.6, Thomas 1.1, Brockman 0.0.

* Fouls: Thomas 3.2, Okafor 3.8, Hawes 3.8, Brockman 7.8.

* Points: Okafor 12.8, Hawes 12.7, Brockman 11.3, Thomas 5.9.

So you get so-so scoring, probably another team block per game, pretty decent shooting on the limited shots he does take, terrible free throw shooting, very few assists, and rebounding which is actually less than the average of two of the guys he’d replace. And he’d be the highest paid player on your roster for the next five years.

No, thanks. But, hey, if you’re determined to blow it up and want to get rid of David West, let’s talk.

Kings Player Rankings Revisited

coolcatreportdotcom — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 16:56:03 -0000

I posted player rankings 10 days ago, and I thought I would revisit it to see what has changed since then.

The quick answer: a lot, including Kevin Martin's injury and the emergence of some of the players.

Rankings followed by player and projected minutes per game. Previous rankings and minutes in parentheses:

1. Thompson 34 (2, 34) Young fella is becoming a double-double machine. Heart of the team.
2. Evans 32 (4, 30) Starting to get it together. Top ROY candidate. Learning to get his AND make team better.

3. Udrih 32 (8, 10) Making a fan even out of the most hardboiled cynic. Great QB and playing solid D.

4. Nocioni 28 (6, 22) Solid vet making presence felt.

5. Hawes 28 (5, 28) Quietly settling into role player status.

6. Casspi 24 (3, 30) Westphal pushing all the right buttons with bright young star.
7. Udoka 20 (unranked) New player adds defensive edge without being a zero on offense.

8. Greene 16 (12, 4) Recent play puts him back in the mix, adds physical presence to bench.
9. May 10 (9, 8) Still the top bench option to back up JT and Hawes.
10. Thomas 8 (13, 0) Has fought his way out of the doghouse and into backup PF minutes.

11. Brockman 4 (10, 8) Entertaining hustler who will be a second quarter-garbage time delight.
12. Rodriguez 4 (11, 8) Starting to play better in limited minutes.

Injured list:

* Martin (1, 40). Are the Kings a better team without Kevin?

* Garcia (didn't mention him last time).

Waived

* Mason (7, 18). Became too much of an offensive liability. Udoka a better option.

Kings Player Rankings

coolcatreportdotcom — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:26:50 -0000

It's early, and the sample size is admittedly small, but here's my take, subject to ongoing analysis (playing time per game in parentheses):

1. Martin 40 (really no other true 2 guard on the team without Cisco)
2. Thompson 34 (love the way he runs the court and picks up cheap garbage hustle buckets)
3. Casspi 30 (as pointed out, should start at SF)
4. Evans 30 (only a rookie, will get better, needs to learn to depend high post screens)
5. Hawes 28 (not a big fan, but he's all we got, so play him)
6. Nocioni 22 (tweener who is too slow for SF and too small for PF, but a gritty vet nonetheless)
7. Mason 18 (defense should earn him minutes behind both Casspi and Martin)
8. Udrih 10 (showcase him for a trade at midseason to someone stupid)
9. May 8 (hopefully he will get better)
10. Brockman 8 (he earned more minutes last night)
11. Rodriguez 8 (serviceable backup PG at best)
12. Greene 4 (Casspi's play makes him expendable)
13. Thomas (see No. 10)

Finding the draft’s best players

coolcatreportdotcom — Fri, 22 May 2009 10:01:22 -0000

From 1992-2006, the best player in each NBA draft as determined by career win shares (per Basketball Reference) has been available with the fourth pick of the draft roughly half the time, or in seven of the 15 drafts.

The No. 1 pick turned out to be the best player in the draft in six of the 15 years, and two other players were chosen with either the No. 2 or No. 3 pick. In 11 of the 15 years, the best player was chosen in the first six picks.

Naturally, depending on how good this draft turns out to be, the Kings should be able to land a quality player at No. 4. The real shame is missing the No. 1 pick, but once you get beyond that, it’s a crapshoot.

And this is just a look at the best players in each draft.

* 1992: Shaquille O’Neal #1

* 1993: Chris Webber #1

* 1994: Jason Kidd #2

* 1995: Kevin Garnett #5

* 1996: Kobe Bryant #13

* 1997: Tim Duncan #1

* 1998: Dirk Nowitzki #9

* 1999: Shawn Marion #9

* 2000: Hedo Turkoglu #16

* 2001: Pau Gasol #3

* 2002: Yao Ming #1

* 2003: LeBron James #1

* 2004: Dwight Howard #1

* 2005: Chris Paul #4

* 2006: Brandon Roy #6

By draft pick:

* No. 1: 6 players (O’Neal, Webber, Duncan, Ming, James, Howard).

* No. 2: 1 player (Kidd).

* No. 3: 1 player (Gasol).

* No. 4: 1 player (Paul).

* No. 5: 1 player (Garnett).

* No. 6: 1 player (Roy).

* No. 9: 2 players (Nowitzki, Marion).

* No. 13: 1 player (Bryant).

* No. 16: 1 player (Turkoglu).

Let’s look at this another way, because naturally multiple impact players can come out of the same draft. Here are the top 25 active players in win shares and where they were drafted:

1. Shaquille O’Neal: 1992 #1

2. Kevin Garnett: 1995 #5

3. Tim Duncan: 1997 #1

4. Kobe Bryant: 1996 #13

5. Dirk Nowitzki: 1998 #9

6. Dikembe Mutumbo: 1991 #4

7. Jason Kidd: 1994 #2

8. Ray Allen: 1996 #5

9. Paul Pierce: 1998 #10

10. Steve Nash: 1996 #15

11. Shawn Marion: 1999 #9

12. Allen Iverson: 1996 #1

13. Rasheed Wallace: 1995 #4

14. Chauncey Billups: 1997 #3

15. Tracy McGrady: 1997 #9

16. Vince Carter: 1998 #5

17. Grant Hill: 1994 #3

18. Michael Finley: 1995 #21

19. Ben Wallace: 1996 Undrafted

20. LeBron James: 2003 #1

21. Elton Brand: 1999 #1

22. Peja Stojakovic: 1996 #14

23. Stephon Marbury: 1996 #4

24. Rashard Lewis: 1998 #32

25. Andre Miller: 1999 #9.

Five No. 1s, one No. 2 and two No. 3s, so 17 of the 25 were still available when the No. 4 pick rolled around.

Artest, Rockets earn some respect

coolcatreportdotcom — Sat, 02 May 2009 03:29:58 -0000

A long way from the Palace at Auburn Hills four seasons ago, a long way from NBA pariah, Artest sat down 10 rows back in the Toyota Center and let the love wash over him. He wanted to linger, commune, so Ron Artest just sat there. From the left and right, they quickly closed on him and he disappeared into wave upon wave of fans touching and hugging and thanking him. As security rushed to release Artest, the truth had never been so clear with him: Victory has long been confused with virtue in sports, but as a basketball star, Ron Artest was free again.

Artest fuels Rockets’ surge to second round

Adrian Wojnarowski, Yahoo! Sports

It's nice to see fans who can appreciate talent and are committed to winning. I am happy for the Rocket fans, happy for Artest and sad for the Kings fans who never appreciated what they had, and still can't now that it is gone.

Do the Rockets have what it takes to give the Lakers a run for their money? I don't know, but I am sure going to enjoy watching some quality playoff basketball.

NCAA Brackets: Do YOU have what it takes?

coolcatreportdotcom — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 02:55:28 -0000

Like last year, I've created a group at Yahoo! Sports called Sactown Madness. If you are 18 and in the continental US and agree to give up your first-born child, you can enter for a chance to win $10,000 if you pick the best bracket. That goes up to $5 million if you have the perfect bracket. And it will track the standings and determine who from this board has picked the best bracket --aka "bragging rights."

Give me your best shot. They don't include the play-in game Tuesday in the contest, so all entries are due by the tip-off of the first game Thursday morning.

Click this link and join the group. Here is the rest of the info you need to join:

Private Group Name: Sactown Madness.

Password: Sactown.

Bracket Name: Bracket Busters

After that, just fill out your bracket. Best of luck to all who take part.

If you entered last year's contest, you should have already received an invitation to join this group. I'll provide any other details as they become available.