SB Nation User Blog: cougfan

Fun with Elias Rankings

cougfan — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 22:46:29 -0000

Much of what we do with Erik Bedard hinges on his Elias Ranking in this upcoming free agency. If you think he will resign here, then this is a moot point. If not, the question becomes whether he falls under the type A or type B free agent category. This is important because if he is a type A, the M's get the top draft pick form the team that signs him, along with a sandwich pick between the first round. If he is a type B, the M's only get a supplemental pick.

As a refresher, type A free agents fall within the top 20% of players at their position. Type B free agents are between the top 20% and top 40% at their position. The ranking takes the last two years of performance into account. The rankings take into account games started, innings pitched, wins, win loss percentage, ERA, and strikeouts. A player at the top of the category gets the maximum amount of points, decreasing on down to the player at the bottom getting zero. For you Bedard fans, it is adjusted for time on the DL. There are 14 teams in the AL giving us, in my guess, 80-90 qualified starting pitchers. In order to be in the top 20%, he needs to be one of the 16-18 best starters in the league.

Derek at USSM did quite a bit of work on this, so I'll link and recap. Looking at his last year, he had only 6 wins, but a 60% win percentage. His strikeouts put him at 70th and ERA was at 3.67. This year, he's 28th in IP, 4th in ERA, 14th in K's, and has 5 wins. If you could duplicate this year, I would be he'd turn out as a type A. The problem arises from the fact that it is a two year ranking. His IP and wins from last year hurt him, along with the time spent hurt. It appears, though, that the ranking prorates your time spent on the DL.

I may be way off base but 77 total starts throughout the season assuming 5 days between starts. He made 15 starts last year, instead of his normal 28-30. For simplicity, I'm going to say he made half the starts that he could have made. So, then if it really is prorated, his adjusted strikeouts would be 144, his adjusted wins would be 12, adjusted IP would be 162. His K's would put him at 20th in the league, his IP wouldn't be in the top 40, starts would be 24th, ERA is 22nd, wins is also 22nd. Couple this all together and he would rank somewhere around 26th in the league. I have no idea how the hell DL adjustment works for starting pitchers so I pulled these numbers out for simplicity. Still, my best guess is he would rank somewhere in the high 20's to 30 just on last years stats alone..

As we know, though, it takes into account 2 years of statistics. So, this year he has 11 starts, 65.2 IP, 65 K's, an ERA of 2.47, and win percentage of 71%. Projecting this straight away, without any adjustments of advanced statistics, he is on pace for 28 starts, 167 IP, 13 wins, a .710 win percentage, and 167 K's. This would rank him ~42nd in starts, 38th in IP, 14th in K's, 4th in ERA, and 11th in win percentage for this year alone.

Now, think of the top ~20 pitchers in the AL using these 5 categories. If you think he can pitch himself into that group, then he may very well end up a type A. Personally, I feel there is still alot of work to be done. I'm not sure exactly how Elias treats DL time, which he spent a considerable amount of time on last year, I believe, but if it does prorate stats, then that should help him. If you know how long he spent on the DL, you may be able to calculate it more accurately than me pulling educated guesses on the numbers.

I think we can eliminate keep him knowing he would be a type B free agent. Then, the question becomes, do you keep him as a type A if we are sniffing contention in late July or do we try to unload him? Think of it this way, he would probably command quite a haul on the trade market based on potential and past performance. Even if he is a rent a player for someone, teams making a playoff run would put a premium on his arm, if healthy. We're talking legit near majors ready prospects. On the other hand, as a type A, we would get the top pick of the team that signs him, plus a sandwich pick. As we know with the draft, it can sometimes be a crapshoot with prospect. Guys may not pan out, especially with the sandwich pick. In the trade market, we can pick and choose the deal that works best, based on the performance of the prospects we target and organizational need.

Would I love to make a playoff run and keep Bedard around? Yes, if he is a type A. I do, however, think it would be more beneficial to trade him for prospects this summer.

Disclaimer: this was me researching Elias rankings and trying to throw together where he may project out to. In no way is it a science and I was just giving a ballpark estimate. Dave and Derek at USSM have done a better job than me, as linked above, but this is meant to start discussion on the issue. If you want to give it a shot and project what he would need to pitch himself into Type A, feel free.

Playoffs? You're talking about playoffs?

cougfan — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 23:06:48 -0000

Since we're back sniffing .500 again, the playoffs discussions have come back into play. I thought I'd revisit our playoff chances and see where we sit as of right now.

Through 59 games, we are at 29-30, sitting just below .500 and 4.5 games back of the Rangers. Additionally, we are only one game back of the Angels, who are sitting at 29-28. The question becomes do we have a shot at the playoffs, and what will it take to get there. Obviously nobody is running away with this division and it is as week as we thought it would be. Let's dig in.

First, I want to examine the other teams to see what their flaws are and if they will keep up the pace they are at, get better, or get worse.

Texas:

Texas has started off the first 58 games at 33-25, a record that was not expected by most. The general consensus is that they will fall off come summertime. Their weakness is still in their pitching staff.

Pitching:

Thus far, the Texas rotation is sitting at a TRA of 6.00 and a TRA* of 5.64. Their bullpen has a TRA of 5.83, with a TRA+ 5.34. In other words, they are who we thought they were. Their pitching should in no way carry them through the season.

Hitting:

The strength of the Texas lineup. As a team, their wOBA is sitting at .351. They may not outpitch teams, but they are built to score runs. Nearly all of their regulars are at or above a wOBA of .300. The hitting part of their game probably won't go away.

Summary:

With a shakey pitching staff, the Rangers are going to have to hit the crap out of the ball to win games. Relying on hitting, in my opinion, is a dangerous way to go about things. At any time, their hitting could go cold, leaving them on shaky ground. They are 4-6 in their last 10 and have showed signs of cooling.

Anaheim:

The Angels started the season missing most of their full rotations to injuries, leaving a slow start to be expected. The rotation is back now, but not performing as well as they were expected to be. Santana has lost velocity, as noted by Jeff, Lackey hasn't ben a standout by any means, and Escobar found himself demoted to the bullpen. Add in the injury to Vlad, and his lack of performance, and they've done quite well for themselves up until now.

Pitching:

The Angels pitching was predicted to be their strong point coming in. It was assumed that when they were healthy they would be the team to beat. The Angels pitching staff is healthy, but has not showed signs of being where everyone thought they would be. As a rotation, they have a TRA of 4.52 and TRA* of 4.83. Santana has had a dropoff, as mentioned, and Lackey isn't quite back to form from what I've seen. Weaver, on the other hand, has been lights out with a TRA of 3.21, comparable to where Felix is. In the pen, they have a TRA* of 5.01 and pRAA of -4.9. They appear to miss having K-Rod as their closer, with Fuentes having a TRA that is almost two points higher than him. Shields also hasn't been performing well in the setup role. All in all, their pitching has been shakey as well.

Hitting:

Their hitting has been about average with a wOBA of .333. Vlad has been out with an injury, but had seemed to regress quite a bit before that. Torii Hunter is their bright spot with a wOBA of .409.

Mariners:

For what we are on paper, this start has been better that what could've been expected. After getting off to a hot start, we cooled off very quickly, but have been picking it up recently. The holes in the team, as has been noted, lie in the bullpen and with our hitting. Our bullpen treads on shakey ground and our hitting, at many times, is non-existant.

Pitchers:

This seems to be our strength. Our rotation has a TRA of 4.51. Felix, when good, is killing it with a TRA of 3.17, with Bedard at 4.02. We've been able to plug in Vargas and Olsen and putter along quite well in the last month. The emergence of new Washburn has also been helpful. Overall our rotation has been a strong point at many times. The bullpen, on the other hand, is still cause for concern. The pen's TRA is at 5.21. Just from watching the pen, we all probably feel that they may not be as good as advertised. It is shakey at times, downright scary at others, and yet surprising good sometimes as well. All in all, I would call the pen inconsistent.

Hitting:

Not our strong point. The lineup fails to produce, outside of Ichiro and Branyan, most of the time. Branyan ihas been dead sexy with a wOBA of .435. The team, as a whole, have a wOBA of .313, or well below average. Our lineup is flat ugly on paper and is just about the same on the field. While it looks bad now, it should be expected to improve by heading closer to what is projected soon.

Summary:

The team relies on pitching and continues to be frustrating at the plate. The rotation can go out and allow 3 or less runs, yet still lose due to the lack of production from the lineup. We are also prone to late game blowups by the bullpen, as we've all seen. The fact that the team has played so many one run games, and won many of them, leads me to believe we've been quite lucky up until now and if we keep playing the way we are, our luck will run out.

Where do we go from here?

From the looks of it, we're still in this thing and should continue to be in this thing through the rest of the season. Texas is all bat and not so much pitching. We are the opposite. The Angels are hanging around without major standouts in either. With the rotation woes of the Angels and Rangers, we should be able to make it close.

I would not, however, like to see us become big buyers at the trading deadline. Instead, I think we can solve some of our lineup troubles in house. Saunders is kicking down the door of the big club and making a case to take one of the OF spots. Moore may very well be seasoned enough to be the solution at catcher in the summer after a bit more seasoning. Our middle infield, well we're just kind of stuck with that right now unless we can unload one or both onto a sucker team. There really isn't any prospects for it from what I see in house. Clement is kind of stuck due to the fact that we have a LH 1B, that is sexy, and a LH DH that probably won't be bench anytime soon.

The other issue I see is Erik Bedard. If you think he will be a type A free agent or that he will resign here, then I have no problem keeping him around. Derek at USSM, does not think he will be. If neither of these are true, I really would like to unload him to get something out of it. I guess it all depends on where we are standing around the trade deadline and whether he will be able to pitch himself into type A territory.

So, there's my take on it. I didn't have time to go too far in depth but from what I see, we should be in the race, especially with our weak division. What we should do if we are still in the race come two months from now remains to be seen.

Tim Floyd is out

cougfan — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 01:14:50 -0000

Link

So, let the speculation begin. If I had to guess, Tim knows what's coming and so does USC. With the investigation and all the allegations, I think USC may know the hammer is coming and are trying to save some face with Tim resigning. All in all this is bad news for USC, and in an indirect way for WSU, in the long run. I've got a feeling that the NCAA is nearing the end and bad things may be coming for USC soon.

Interesting blog on BP and the evolution of statistics

cougfan — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 22:48:16 -0000

Deadspin on Baseball Prospectus

Deadspin threw out a quick writeup on the evolution of baseball prospectus, a comparison to moneyball, and who the leaders in baseball statistics are. Of note in the article is the praise of Dave Cameron as one of the cutting edge baseball stat guys. They basically say that Dave is the brightest young sabermetric stars of today (don't blush Dave).

It goes on to explain how THT and Fangraphs have supplanted BP in many areas of work, all while not charging a subscription fee. It's interesting how long BP has been around, well before Moneyball, and how teams started "raiding" BP and giving front office jobs to their writers. It's also interesting that some of the big stats guys are talking about moving beyond sports, as well. I'm wondering what kind of things they could move into.

Edit: Wanted to add how spoiled we are as M's fans to have guys like Dave, Jeff, Matthew, and Graham. Don't know how we got lucky to have all these guys follow the M's and write a good amount of material on them but it adds alot to the fan experience.

Thoughts on Revenue Sharing?

cougfan — Sun, 24 May 2009 04:48:11 -0000

Seattle Times Link

Summary:

Woodward has come out publicly supporting revenue sharing for the pac-10. At the moment, the pac-10 has a form of revenue sharing but Woodward is arguing for schools to share revenue generated from football. Essentially, it would help level the playing field for all schools. We garner, as expected, the lowest TV revenue in the pac-10 by about a quarter million. USC, on the other hand, earns more than double what we do in.

More interesting points from the article include: Oregon state generates the third most TV revenue while Oregon is in at 7th; UW made about 340,000 and 445,000 for the last two apple cups in pullman while WSU made just over a million a piece for the last two apple cups in Seattle.

Thoughts:

Tom Hanson mentions that it takes 8 votes to change the rule. USC and UCLA probably will not vote for it since they are holding the lions share of TV and football revenue. Do you think this is a good idea and do you think it would have a shot at passing?

UW Football Joins the Bailout Craze

cougfan — Tue, 19 May 2009 07:36:12 -0000

UW Football Bailout - Seattle Times

In an effort to inflate season ticket numbers, draw more crowds to Husky Stadium, and raise more money for their athletic department, the UW is now offering a season ticket bailout program. The jist of it is that people may donate money towards paying for season tickets for former holders who could not renew for "economic reasons". The effort was started by a group of boosters who did not want rough economic times to prevent people from coming out to watch another year of blowout losses.

Thoughts?

Payback: Griffey Style

cougfan — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:01:49 -0000

Griffey Paying Off a Bet in Pennies

We've all probably paid off a bet in pennies at one point or another, but $1,500 in pennies in the players locker is impressive. I wonder what the look on the bank teller's face was.

Fun penny fact of the day: To "spend a penny" in British idiom means to urinate. The etymology of the phrase is literal; some public toilets used to be coin-operated, with a pre-decimal penny being the charge levied.

Bedard's degenerative hip condition

cougfan — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 06:48:29 -0000

Bedard hip analysis

Thanks to THT. Kind of ironic that AJ's worry was a degenerative hip. Did we forget to do a physical on Bedard? Can we have AJ and GS52 back yet?

Bad hips are a bitch. Bad hips are a bitch. Bad hips are a bitch. Bad hips are a bitch. Bad hips are a bitch. Bad hips are a bitch. Bad hips are a bitch. Bad hips are a bitch. Bad hips are a bitch.

Don't be calling AJ "Pac Man"

cougfan — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 21:04:30 -0000

Adam Jones doesn't like the name Pacman

Some Orioles fans tried the nickname PacMan out on Adam Jones during our series and it didn't go over too well. At least he had a sense of humor about it and it sounded like he was joking around with the fans.

This 75 word limit is a pain in the butt.

Your FanPost must be at least 75 words long

My Dog Ate It Baseball Edition

cougfan — Thu, 20 Dec 2007 18:23:19 -0000

Papelbon's dog's new chew toy

Oldest excuse in the book. My dog ate my homework, my dog ate my world series ball. Its all the same