SB Nation User Blog: cougfan

Simon's Letter of Intent is in

cougfan — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 23:58:46 -0000

Simon's Letter of Intent is in

We already knew he was on board but it's good to see his letter is signed, sealed, and delivered.

Why do the football gods hate WSU? Bland done for the year

cougfan — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 01:15:49 -0000

Why do the football gods hate WSU? Bland done for the year

I'm sure Grippi will have more, but this is sweet. We really can't catch a break. If someone can figure out how to reverse our karma, please let me know.

Mark Few Responds.....Awesomely

cougfan — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 04:29:50 -0000

Mark Few Responds.....Awesomely

"The chances of that happening are about the same as Big Foot having my baby," Few said. "That's like me saying, Gonzaga proposes a five-year deal at Spokane Arena. There, I just made a proposal. That's as logical as this deal would be."

There's more and I suggest you all go read the rest. Besides more hilarious UW bashing from Few, he also does present some logical points.

John Blanchette on the UW-GU Proposal

cougfan — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 17:27:45 -0000

John Blanchette on the UW-GU Proposal

Blanchette checks in and proceeds to rip UW for the series renewal proposal. Many of the points he brings up are ones we were discussing in the earlier thread. Check it out

Gibson -> Rams

cougfan — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 21:50:36 -0000

Gibson -> Rams

This might be good for him. They aren't deep at WR and they may actually put him to good use.

Another week, another brilliant Harmeling article

cougfan — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 07:39:57 -0000

Another week, another brilliant Harmeling article

"As I got out of the shower on the second day, I found Forrest surprisingly adorned in a Davenport Hotel robe, sipping a Pepsi out of a wine glass"

Yeah, go read it.

Daven Harmeling Relives "The Shot"

cougfan — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 21:21:59 -0000

Daven Harmeling Relives "The Shot"

I really love that cougfan hired Harmeling as a writer. This time, he talks about the one shot that keeps replaying in his mind: the last second shot from the Vandy game. Great piece

Tuel to start at Oregon

cougfan — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 23:57:43 -0000

Tuel to start at Oregon

It's Tuel time! As expected Tuel will start at Oregon, according to Wulff

WSU vs. Oregon at Qwest in 2010?

cougfan — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 00:27:58 -0000

As many of you have seen, or some haven't, the Times came out with a report today stating we are looking seriously into reupping the Qwest Game next year with Oregon as an opponent. For your background read if you haven't, go here

I looked up some figures about what we make at Martin and at Qwest. Heres what I see:

When the Apple Cup debate came up, the numbers given by the Seattle Times were that each team takes home about $280,000 in revenue for games in Pullman.

This year, cougfan came out with an article while Hawaii tickets were on sale and said that the Qwest games generate $150,000 for our athletic department per 5,000 fans.

So, in order to hit our Pullman numbers, we need to only sell 10,000 tickets. No problem, but that's not what we're aiming for here.

On to the bigger question, how much is worth it? Say we sell out all 67,000 seats in Qwest. Now were looking at $2,010,000 which puts us at about 7 times higher an amount than made in Pullman. Honestly, I don't have any doubt that a WSU-Oregon game at Qwest would sell out no matter how bad we are. Oregon is 3+ hours away and travels well. That place would be full. Additionally, these numbers reflect the current ticket prices for a non-conference game against a (usually) subpar opponent at Qwest. The feeling I have is that prices would be higher and the revenue generated would be higher as well. So, for arguments sake, I'm going to put $2 million on the low end.

Finally, is it worth it? Playing in Qwest, in a game that is almost equidistant from WSU and Oregon would make it more of a neutral site than it would a home game. It still counts as a home game, leaving us only 4 true home games against conference opponents per year. Additionally, this is a one sided decision, meaning that only our home year next year would be at Qwest. It's not like the Apple Cup proposal where every year is at Qwest. We know how badly our AD needs money at this point and a game that could give us 10x the amount a Pullman game would could really make sense next year. It's not something I'd want to see long term, but I'm almost open to seeing it next year.

The question I also have is if they do it and it is a success, who do they put at Qwest in 2011 as far as a Pac-10 opponent?

What do you all think about it all?

Fun with Elias Rankings

cougfan — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 22:46:29 -0000

Much of what we do with Erik Bedard hinges on his Elias Ranking in this upcoming free agency. If you think he will resign here, then this is a moot point. If not, the question becomes whether he falls under the type A or type B free agent category. This is important because if he is a type A, the M's get the top draft pick form the team that signs him, along with a sandwich pick between the first round. If he is a type B, the M's only get a supplemental pick.

As a refresher, type A free agents fall within the top 20% of players at their position. Type B free agents are between the top 20% and top 40% at their position. The ranking takes the last two years of performance into account. The rankings take into account games started, innings pitched, wins, win loss percentage, ERA, and strikeouts. A player at the top of the category gets the maximum amount of points, decreasing on down to the player at the bottom getting zero. For you Bedard fans, it is adjusted for time on the DL. There are 14 teams in the AL giving us, in my guess, 80-90 qualified starting pitchers. In order to be in the top 20%, he needs to be one of the 16-18 best starters in the league.

Derek at USSM did quite a bit of work on this, so I'll link and recap. Looking at his last year, he had only 6 wins, but a 60% win percentage. His strikeouts put him at 70th and ERA was at 3.67. This year, he's 28th in IP, 4th in ERA, 14th in K's, and has 5 wins. If you could duplicate this year, I would be he'd turn out as a type A. The problem arises from the fact that it is a two year ranking. His IP and wins from last year hurt him, along with the time spent hurt. It appears, though, that the ranking prorates your time spent on the DL.

I may be way off base but 77 total starts throughout the season assuming 5 days between starts. He made 15 starts last year, instead of his normal 28-30. For simplicity, I'm going to say he made half the starts that he could have made. So, then if it really is prorated, his adjusted strikeouts would be 144, his adjusted wins would be 12, adjusted IP would be 162. His K's would put him at 20th in the league, his IP wouldn't be in the top 40, starts would be 24th, ERA is 22nd, wins is also 22nd. Couple this all together and he would rank somewhere around 26th in the league. I have no idea how the hell DL adjustment works for starting pitchers so I pulled these numbers out for simplicity. Still, my best guess is he would rank somewhere in the high 20's to 30 just on last years stats alone..

As we know, though, it takes into account 2 years of statistics. So, this year he has 11 starts, 65.2 IP, 65 K's, an ERA of 2.47, and win percentage of 71%. Projecting this straight away, without any adjustments of advanced statistics, he is on pace for 28 starts, 167 IP, 13 wins, a .710 win percentage, and 167 K's. This would rank him ~42nd in starts, 38th in IP, 14th in K's, 4th in ERA, and 11th in win percentage for this year alone.

Now, think of the top ~20 pitchers in the AL using these 5 categories. If you think he can pitch himself into that group, then he may very well end up a type A. Personally, I feel there is still alot of work to be done. I'm not sure exactly how Elias treats DL time, which he spent a considerable amount of time on last year, I believe, but if it does prorate stats, then that should help him. If you know how long he spent on the DL, you may be able to calculate it more accurately than me pulling educated guesses on the numbers.

I think we can eliminate keep him knowing he would be a type B free agent. Then, the question becomes, do you keep him as a type A if we are sniffing contention in late July or do we try to unload him? Think of it this way, he would probably command quite a haul on the trade market based on potential and past performance. Even if he is a rent a player for someone, teams making a playoff run would put a premium on his arm, if healthy. We're talking legit near majors ready prospects. On the other hand, as a type A, we would get the top pick of the team that signs him, plus a sandwich pick. As we know with the draft, it can sometimes be a crapshoot with prospect. Guys may not pan out, especially with the sandwich pick. In the trade market, we can pick and choose the deal that works best, based on the performance of the prospects we target and organizational need.

Would I love to make a playoff run and keep Bedard around? Yes, if he is a type A. I do, however, think it would be more beneficial to trade him for prospects this summer.

Disclaimer: this was me researching Elias rankings and trying to throw together where he may project out to. In no way is it a science and I was just giving a ballpark estimate. Dave and Derek at USSM have done a better job than me, as linked above, but this is meant to start discussion on the issue. If you want to give it a shot and project what he would need to pitch himself into Type A, feel free.