You know better than any of us whether or not the Wilpon's can crawl out from under their current leverage burden.

I'm guessing it's an iffy proposition for you to have been interested to begin with. You don't seem like a minority owner type of guy.

But "Iffy" still leaves a chance - and any chance is too much a chance for us loyalists.

Stay in the game. Shape the environment. Help turn "iffy" into when hell freezes over.

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Can't see nothin' in front of me

Can't see nothing coming up behind

I make my way through this darkness

I can't feel nothing but this chain that binds me

Lost track of how far I've gone

How far I've gone, how high I've climbed

On my back's a sixty pound stone

On my shoulder a half mile line

As usual Springsteen pretty much nails my Mets state of mind except that Fred & Jeff weight closer to six hundred than sixty pounds. But being old enough to have heard parts of the '69 Miracle on a transistor radio smuggled under a pillow - this ain't my first or darkest Mets rodeo.

In the early 80's at Northwestern, there were afternoon classes to be skipped every time the 65-68 win Mets came to pre-lights Wrigley Field. Lousy baseball? Yep but El fare from Evanston, a bleacher seat in an empty stadium and a beverage could be had for six bucks. Between Wrigley and The River tour, I took my share of classes pass/fail.

By '93 the rush of '86 was long gone but I still burned way too much gas seeking a place that could hold a 250-mile away WFAN signal chronicling the Worst Team Money Could Buy. Ten years later I'd graduated to DirectTV just in time to catch a battered Mike Piazza limp along with the 66 win Metropolitans.

Now we're back in the darkness and everything but Tarot Cards are being consulted to calculate a timetable for the next banner-hoisting.

But as I look back at 43 years of blue and orange fever I realize my favorite years weren't always when we won the seasons final game.

Come on up for the rising

Come on up, lay your hands in mine

Come on up for the rising

Come on up for the rising tonight

Just a boy in 1969 my fandom was simple and pure but 1986 was another matter. I understood stuff. I knew all about expectations - both in life and on the baseball field. The crushing expectations of 1986 squeezed a whole lot of joy from the championship run. The Houston series was great drama but I sure wouldn't call it fun. It felt more like a slow motion march to disappointment. And finally when we prevailed I'd barely caught my breath when we were down 2-0 and headed to Fenway . . . and Game Six . . . it felt like my head was in a vise for 3 weeks. The final triumph was in some ways worth it but it was more agony than ecstasy.

Well finally to my point.

My favorite seasons have been The Rising. The first light of dawn after the long cold darkness.

Seeing Keith Hernandez embrace his general's stripes while leading the '84 Mets to 90 wins - a TWENTY-TWO game improvement from the year before! Shea rocked for the first time in a long time. So long we'd forgotten it could sway. After seven seasons of last & next to last finishes the future was worth taking seriously. Not only were young arms like Darling and Terrell ours but Straw solidified himself as a can't miss AB AND we had a new Doc who could cure all our ills! I made my family sprint from the car to ticket window to get walk up tickets to a Doc start before they sold out . . . on a Wednesday afternoon!

He came from nowhere. And so did the excitement. We outdrew the Yankees. We were used to being trampled, held no hope it would change but we hung around because we loved baseball. And our reward was being given 162 games worth of house money - we didn't know we could be happier - we were IN THE MOMENT. Nothin' in front of us, Nothing comin' up behind.

'86 was amazing but it was also something else we didn't realize at the time. The end of innocence. The following years saw a gifted club that was harder to appreciate unless they won the final game of the season. And they didn't. They partied (who wouldn't). They played as hard off the field as on the field. They may not have rested on their laurels but those laurels grew brittle and sharp.

Those same feelings of joy are nearly identical to what I felt in 2005. Watching Jose & DW was like playing with a new puppy for the first time. We didn't know all their moves yet, sometimes they'd be awkward, usually they'd make your jaw drop and either way they'd exude joy. Remember the FIRST time you heard the Jose-Jose song? Pedro for a brief shining moment being the type of ace we hadn't seen since the good doctor? Shea was new again. The only time I thought of Vince Coleman was when I brought a thermos to an early April game. Energy, hope and innocence were back. It was like the walk home after that really great first date that went 'till three am. She was perfect and so was the future.

Did anyone have their head down on the last day of the 2005 season?

How about 12-1/2 months later?

I've got my own countdown clock but it's not to a championship. Don't get me wrong, I want more of those but that's an entirely different type of joy. My countdown is to the next Rising. It'll come. Maybe not soon enough. But when it does it will be pure in a way you can't really remember unless you're in the middle of it. But deep down I've got enough of the memory in my Mets DNA to keep me going when I can't feel nothing but this chain that binds me.

Keep the faith. Someday, hopefully soon we shall be released.

So after night's "Bullpen Infrastructure Plan" I'm hungry for more new faces and wonder if there's any budget left.

Here's where I think we stand. Some notes:

• I've tried to be a little high on estimates for arbitration/at or near minimum salary guys.
• I include Paulino at last seasons salary because I thought I read some wiggle room on whether or not they'd consider bringing him back.
• I listed pitchers in order of salary - not quality.
• Interesting that there are three starting position players making over $1m, three starting pitchers and five relievers . . .

BOTTOM LINE: I get to $88.65m with three spots open on the 25-man which makes it sounds like there's $5-10m of wiggle room to get to $95-100m . . .

BUT I have a feeling that the $100m number covers either all the 40-man roster salary OR includes other costs like pension/health insurance that go into the official luxury tax payroll calculation. But it'd sure be nice to be able to spend another $10m though.

.

In the fallout over the loss of Jose, many critics claim that matching the Marlins offer was a no-brainer because it's nothing more than a "fair market" deal. The implication is that Mets management failed to recognize the deal was too good to miss.

While that sounds intuitive it ignores important context. Not every market deal is a smart deal for every club. Remember, it appears 28 other teams declined to make a bid on Jose, many of whom could use a SS upgrade.

The argument that the Marlins got a good deal with Jose is largely based on a calculation that a win on the free agent market should cost $4-6m during the duration of Jose's contract and even with some injuries he's a reasonable bet to net that type of value. Let's use $5m for this discussion.

But that doesn't mean every time there's a player available who "only" costs $5m a win you should buy him. Based on that valuation, to get the 42 wins above replacement level needed to be a 90 win club solely from the FA market you'd need a budget of $200m+.

That's not in the Mets near future. You must have a mix of "cost per win" players. You need some really cheap guys who cost $150k, $300k, $1m/win to balance out the $5m/win players. And you need to avoid having a roster with too many bad contracts that pay substantially more than $5m/win.

When does a player like Jose make the most sense?

He'd be a great fit for an 85 win club that got zero WAR from SS with $18m to spend. He's in your budget and all else remaining equal, his 6.2 WAR gets you to 90-91 wins and playoff revenue! A great deal for that club.

Unfortunately the Mets are not that mythical 85 win club.

They are a 77 win club that would gain zero wins from re-upping Jose. Yes, they'd avoid losing his production but they wouldn't be adding wins. And unless they improve over last season they're likely to draw fewer fans in 2012 with Jose than they did in 2011.

The Mets reality is that they paid $52.5m for 2.6 WAR in 2011 from Wright, Bay & Santana. That's $20.2m/win from players that will cost $55m in 2012 and $57.5m in 2013.

That's why big-dollar contracts are so dangerous - we paid 4X the market value per win to three players who will make up over half the 2012 payroll. That big an under-performing fixed cost can keep you from affording "market" contracts - even for elite players.

Now hopefully they'll all improve in 2012.

If Santana can reach his Mets 3 year average WAR of 3.6 and both Bay and Wright double their 2011 WAR we'll get 8.8 WAR for $55m or $6.875m per win. That's about 35% over the $5m/win "market" value figure.

Bring back Jose and the Mets, while likely out of money, pick up 4.6 wins and get to 81-82 wins (I netted out Capuano against Santana). Of course, that assumes we replace the 23 for 26 save rate K-Rod provided over the first four months.

And 2013 may not be any better. It's entirely possible the Madoff trial is still being litigated and financial restraints are still an albatross, the big $ three cost $57.5m and I'd suggest Bay & Santana would be reasonable bets for regression from their 2012 performance.

So 2014 when that $57.5m becomes $8.5m worth of buyouts plus a decision on DW, is also probably the likeliest time frame for either a favorable resolution of the Madoff mess and financial certainty OR new, hopefully better, ownership.

That's also probably a reasonable time frame for knowing who of Wheeler, Harvey, Familia & Mejia stay healthy/can contribute. Of course in June of 2014 Jose will turn 31 and while he might sustain his recent performance, there's at least a decent chance, he'll be a bigger risk for injury and regression than he is right now.

If the Mets had a solid ownership team, increasing attendance, a $120m budget for the next two years and fewer question marks (Santana, Thole, Pagan, Bay, closer, set-up, Pelfrey maybe even Wright) then shopping for $5m/win deals is a no-brainer.

But that's not our current reality. Our current reality is that $5m/win deals don't really fit into our current budget.

That's not how it ought to be. We can/should be mad it isn't. But that's about the failure of ownership, not the failure of the GM to recognize value and market efficiencies.

Well, he's gone.

Are the choices really to hope the Wilpons win $100m at roulette or prepare for Rebuild on a Budget?

Maybe another year of Sandy "over-slotting" with the best of 'em will be a quick fix . . . Oops the new CBA means he can't.

But 3 first rounders will be a huge boon! Huh? The "Revenge of the Giant Heath" deems one to be a third-rounder?

Crap. We're screwed. Well yeah, but it's time to get creative to try to salvage something.

How about spending the Jose dinero on a higher priced FA that we flip into prospect(s) in July?

He needs to be on a short-term deal, not be getting extravagent dollars and be in demand at the trade deadline.

Think starting pitching - think Hiroki Kuroda.

He made $12m last season and is rumored to be trying to snake the Snakes into a 1 year + 1 year player option deal. So maybe a $12m + $2m buyout of a mutual option gets it done. Even a regression from the past two years to his mlb average performance should make him the apple of many a July contenders eye.

That deal would cost the Mets $8m since we're only paying for 2/3 of the season - $10m if we need to sweeten the pot for a better prospect. Come July he's shipped to contender-land for the next Zach Wheeler. OK, that's probably an over-reach but he ought to fetch something of real value.

The bigger point is we can't spend $8m over-slot in the draft but we can spend that money on a big leaguer that gets turned into a prospect(s).

He also fits into the "pitching & defense" philosophy & strengthens a weak rotation. He won't sell tickets but hot starts by 3 of Ike/Duda/DWright/JayBay could lead to a winning April/May that could sell more summer tickets before a likely regression to 70-75 wins. Jose won't be forgotten but maybe a surprising start eases some of the sting. And if by some miracle Johan is healthy and 80% of his former self a Santana-Kuroda-Dickey-Niese-Pelfrey rotation could keep us in our fair share of games.

And if the $8m is too steep, "tender and trade" Pelfrey for a wild/big-heat AAer and give Gee a job. The risk of course is that Kuroda has a bad year or gets injured.

I'd rather roll the dice on a single signing that could return a high-ceiling prospect than 2-3 low-ceiling mlb-ers that take us from 68 to 73 wins.

Maybe Kuroda isn't the right guy - who else might fit that type of profile?

The point is there's a young future star out there we'd love to fall in love with, maybe moves like this could be the way to acquire him.

I hate the DH. You probably hate the DH. But the MLBPA loves it so we're stuck with the DH.

I also hate two sets of rules for inter-league and World Series play. Most fans and powers-that-be probably agree. We NL fans dread the thought that those powers-that-be might someday force the "AL-Style-DH" on our beloved senior circuit. But should that idea gain momentum, there might be an imperfect compromise that saves the NL from the current DH rule.

This modified DH improves the quality of play on both sides of the NL ball and betters defense in the AL. I'm not 100% sold but it could well be something both leagues would agree on. Here goes:

Each team still has 9 spots in the batting order. Each club gets to use a DH. BUT each pitcher must take his turn at bat in order to remain in the game.

So to use the DH you play one defensive player who does not bat.

Clubs could more easily carry an all-glove/no-hit fielder and an all slug/no glove hitter.

Say we lose Jose, Murphy gets injured again and we're looking at an offensively challenged Tejada/Turner middle infield . . . you could DH Lucas Duda for either Tejada or Turner and have your 4th OFer play right field be it Harris, Hairston, an Endy Chavez type etc.

Advantages:

• Pitchers get better defense behind them.
• Better offense from the 1-8 slots.
• All Slug/No Glove players like Lucas Duda maximize and equalize their value across leagues.
• All managers must master the double switch and know when to pinch-hit or pull a starting pitcher that is due to hit in a close game.
• The players union gets another higher-paying NL roster spot.
• We get uniformity of rules again.
• The NL is protected from the "AL-Style DH"
• Both leagues have to "give something" from the status quo.

Downsides:

• You stunt the offensive development of young Tejada-like players that lose 200-400 PA's a season.
  
• All glove players might see a decline in their salary which could raise some MLBPA objections.
  
• It's still a DH - which sucks - but it seems better than the one out there now.

So NL fans - is that a tradeoff worth making in order to ensure the senior circuit never has to adopt the dreaded current DH rule?

* Someone I mentioned this to a couple of years ago said they thought this rule/one like it may already exist in HS ball. It sure didn't way back when I was in HS. I'd love to know if that's the case though and if there are any differences. Thanks.

After finally shaking the shakes from the realization that not only would "Miami" Jose Reyes mean we'd have to face him 18 times a season but we'd also have our compensatory draft pick bumped to the second round . . . I noticed this little tidbit in Ken Rosenthal's latest update on CBA negotiations:

The new deal is expected to include significant restraints on the amount of money teams spend on draft picks and significant changes in draft-pick compensation for free agents.

I know I've read that before but it took the "Marlins 2nd round" revelation to allow it to actually sink in . . . this is not good if you, like me, view two more first rounders as a bit of a blow softener should Jose be on the phone with U-Haul right now.

After all, what are the chances that "significant changes in draft-pick compensation" means clubs will get more picks?  I'd guess slim and none.  Can someone please make an argument that I'm wrong on that?  Isn't it much more likely that "significant changes" means that clubs losing a FA would get less in the way of draft pick compensation than before?  Would changes not be in effect for the 2012 draft?

If you've got a life raft - please push it this way.  Oh and don't even bother to tell me that should the Marlins somehow find the dough to sign Jose & Prince or Pooh-holes that our pick would get bumped back to the third round.

So the latest in the Jose Reyes “Will He Stay or Will He Go Now?” soap-opera is that since the Mets don’t look like 2012 contenders, not only won’t they get a hometown discount, but overpaying might be the only way to get Jose to stay.

Yeah, it’s from one of those dreaded anonymous sources but then again is there any reason it couldn’t be true?

As fans, we hate the chronic losing.  Don’t we want the players to hate it as much as we do?  Isn’t his competitiveness one of the things we love about Jose?

So doesn’t it make sense that Jose might say “enough is enough” and want to move on?

Isn’t it reasonable for Jose to look at the owners and say “nice guys, glad I grew up with them but now it’s time to go out and rack up a couple of championship runs?”

And this is the tragedy of the Wilpons.  Just when it looks like baseball operations are in competent hands . . . that a long-term strategy has been shaped . . . and even a growing portion of the fan base has concluded that patience might finally be rewarded . . . our biggest homegrown star in decades has run out of patience.

Jose first made my jaw drop in a B-Mets uni back in 2002.  I hope I haven’t seen the last of him in blue and orange.  But I can’t begrudge Jose if he leaves because - finances being equal - he thinks he’s got a better chance to win somewhere else.  In fact, I’ll respect him even more.

This is purposefully mis-labeled so consider it "out-of-competition" but a case that should be made.  I trust the evaluators in Flushing much more than my cursory in-season scanning of MiLB.com but I do want to make as strong a case as possible that reaching our final destination may require putting the car in reverse for much of 2012.  It may be spot on or way off – but I think it needs an airing.

First I’d offer Jose 4/$80m plus a 5th year club option $20m/$4m buyout, but don’t expect that it will get it done.  If I’m right I don’t see anyway a “nip and tuck” of the current roster creates good enough odds of contending in Sept. 2012 to risk the downside inherent in the type of roster decisions that would require.

I’d like to see the club move as many older “question marks” as possible in order to flood our system with high ceiling, or bullpen depth prospects.  But only move the question marks when we believe we’re maximizing the return or have comparable talent/cost replacements.

Embrace the Acquire/Develop/Evaluate/Audition “ADEA” philosophy with gusto.  Sandy started the team on this path vive le Alderson!  It's the only way to sustainable long-term success.  I’m not breaking any ground here but getting there will be bumpy.  It's time to buy seat cushions.  The goal is to reap the first rewards in 2014 from what will be a long-term contender.

Stuff the system with prospects, acquire and develop them over 2012, audition/evaluate them in 2013 and make key/multiple major FA acquisitions heading into 2014 when the young talent is more projectable.

There are just too many question marks in 2012 to make any short-term acquisition that doesn’t either have 2014 value or the potential to create value for 2014.  While $110m is a robust budget, we’re much more top heavy than the typical contending $110m club.  To get from 77 wins to 90 you need to start with . . .

•  Hope that you can replace 350 Beltran AB’s of 900+ OPS production.  It’ll take an upgrade from the 781 OPS provided by other 2010 RFers.

•  Hope that you can replace the 42 Rodriguez appearances that netted 23 for 26 in saves.  It will take an upgrade from the rest of the bullpens 20 saves against 19 blown. 

Once we’ve got those covered we’re back on pace for . . . another 77 win season.  How many question marks need to be answered to make it reasonable to go into “win 13 more now” mode?  We could . . .

• Hope Jason Bay’s been rope-a-dopin’ us and returns to the 500 slugging monster we paid good cash money for.  LF has tons of room for growth but given his contract it’s also going to be manned  by Jason Bay opening day.

• Hope that David Wright benefits from blue walls and reverses his defensive regression.  His offense is still top flight and the new “Cozy Citi Confines” could return him to past HR glory.  But it's more than outfield fences driving that big gap between his 3 year sub .850 OPS and the four prior years range of .911 - .962.  I’m not predicting an Edgardo Alfonzo like post-28 year decline, but a “sure bet” rebound seems less than certain.  And in 2014 he’ll be 31 and looking for a long-term high-priced deal.  Heck, it’s not inconceivable that the frustration he admitted to at the end of 2011 has him seeking a fresh-start elsewhere.

• Hope that Ike Davis mystery ankle injury has fully healed.  He’s said "The bottom line is there are going to be some effects from this my whole life."  And he was slated to shut down again for six weeks after the decision to avoid the operating table was made.  There’s enough caution in the September reporting to suggest that it's risky to take Ike’s health for granted.  2012 should definitively tell us whether he’s the key offensive building block for the perennial contender that launches 2014 or one of the most tragic “could have beens” in club history.  Ike 2010 .926 OPS – other 1B ABs .797.

• Hope Lucas Duda continues to develop into a left-handed Dave Kingman.  He's exactly the type of player that 2012 should be about – high ceiling but too small a sample size to know for sure.  If he trends up he’s a valuable asset in either the trade market or Citi’s outfield.  But if he sophomore slumps and falls short of the 25 HR/852 OPS we got out of RF in 2010 we’re set back from the 90 win pace.  If Ike’s injury resurfaces, Lucas only needs 15 HRs/825 ops at 1B to tread water there compared to combined 2010 production.  But then we need someone else to cover the 25/852 we got from 2010 in RFers. . .  

• Hope the ace is back.  Johan is returning but he will be 33 coming off a shoulder injury not an elbow.  Odds are that his “old self” is a thing of the past.  He might find the guile and savvy to be a solid number 2.  Or he might resemble post-shoulder surgery Pedro Martinez who only tossed 176 total innings over his age 34, 35 & 36 Mets seasons.  Johan looks more question mark than solid bet to improve the rotations baseline.

With uncertainty at all four corners and staff ace at least there’s more projection up the middle.  It seems unlikely the incumbents at C, 2B or CF will dramatically deviate from their recent past.  Of course there’s a big loss of offense if we can’t afford to maintain the status quo at SS.  The pitching market?  Not many solid budget/proven performance fits on the FA side and any current prospect interesting enough to land a good/established arm in a trade is exactly the kind of prospect I want under the “develop-evaluate-audition” strategy.

So what to do with all the uncertainty?

Make that 4/$84m offer to Jose.  If he stays “tweak-to-win now” is much more tempting but equally risky.  If he leaves, hire two more amateur scouts for the 3 first/supplemental round picks next summer and audition/evaluate Tejada over 500 PAs.

Dangle Wright but hold out for 2 top prospects.  Likely no one bites, so he stays, plays, pops a few more over the new “Cozy-Citi-Confines” wall and builds further value.  Keep him on the block and hold or stiffen the price and deal him when the return is sizable.  If he tanks then we gambled and lost a chance to have acquired lesser prospects.  That’s the kind of risk 2012 should be about.

Offer arb/sign both Pelfrey and Pagan and then trade them.  They won’t return studs so target AA bullpen arms with upside.  The hope is one of the guys we get turns into a cheap 8th inning guy by 2014 – maybe we get lucky and hit on the closer of the future.  Even if neither pans out – it’s a 50-50 call on offering arbitration as it is.  So do it then get something for them.

Take a flyer on Grady Sizemore for 1/$6m with a 2nd year $10m club option with $1m buyout.  This is probably $2m more than Pagan would have gotten but if Sizemore rebounds he’s a valuable trading chip that might return a blue chip prospect at the deadline or next off-season.  If his injury recurs it’s a lost gamble but since there’s real upside it’s one I’d be willing to take.

Sign Javier Vazquez to 1/$7m w 2nd year $9m club option w/$1m buyout.  Same principal as Sizemore.  If he’s having a great year then trade him at the deadline to a contender and Dillon Gee takes his slot, if he’s not he cost $2-3m more than Pelfrey but we got a bullpen prospect for the lost $2-3m.

Re-sign Capuano 2/$10m.  Capuano was in demand at the trade deadline last season.  Since he’s lefty, he well could be again.  None of Sizemore, Vazquez, Capuano are 2014 pieces but any of them that gain value should be flipped into prospects that might be.

Start the season w/the untradeable Jay Bay in LF and hope he returns to enough form to trade him along with 50% of his salary for a couple of those fringy high-velocity AA bullpen prospects.  I’d only have Bay play 6 of every 7 games with the days off coming with righties on the mound.  This will marginally help the effort to rebuild his value by flattening his ugly splits by 10-15%. 

I’ll bite on Nathan for closer at $3m and add Saito for $2-3m as well.  I could also go with Jonathan Broxton for one of these slots.  The exact player is less important than the profile – reasonable cost, short-term with a chance they will build upon their current value and possibly be needed by a contender come trade deadline time.

Backup catcher.  Again, I’m somewhat agnostic here.  I guess I’d lean towards a Kelly Shoppach who might build some value though the versatility of a Ryan Doumit is intriguing.  I’m penciling in $3m here as insurance against Thole being Justin Huber II.  Thole is another player that will prove either useful or fodder by next off-season.

I’d round out the bench with a decent backup for Tejada in Alex Gonzalez, a left-handed hitting outfielder capable of playing CF in David DeJesus or Rick Ankiel, Nick Evans and Willie Harris or another versatile left-handed hitter.

Total budget is $99.2m with Sandy getting pre-approval to use the extra $10m on going over slot in the next draft where the club could have 4 of the first 55 picks. 

This club isn’t going to be very good unless we hit pay dirt on about 65% of the question marks & “upside additions.”  The goal is to accrue more “future 8th inning guys” by signing/trading Pagan & Pelf and a couple of advanced to blue chip prospects at the trading deadline depending on whether Wright, Bay, Sizemore or all rebuild their value.  Same principal with a lesser return on some of the bullpen arms like Nathan.

It’s time to suck it up for a year and get more talent so Sandy can make smart, bigger acquisitions following the 2012/2013 seasons.