During the years 2004-2006, Travis Hafner hit like an MVP candidate. That version of Pronk disappeared in 2007. Instead, we were treated to Proon. Proon hit fewer line drives (17%), sent fewer fly balls out of the park (15%) and hit a lot more ground bals (48%). Not surprisingly, Proon wasn't an MVP candidate.

With Hafner's slow start beginning to worry people, we find his 2008 numbers to be a confirmation of our worst fears - further decline. However, I beg to differ. Strongly. What were are witnessing is not a deterioration, but a fight between Proon and Pronk for the baseball soul of Travis Hafner, like in Superman III.

Batted Ball Numbers:

Line Drive Rate
2008 - 25%
2007 - 17%
2006 - 21%
2005 - 20%

GB Rate
2008 - 41%
2007 - 48%
2006 - 39%
2005 - 43%

With the small sample size we have thus far, we are seeing signs of Pronk winning the battle. However, there are a couple of points where his numbers are off.....

Infield Fly per Fly Ball
2008 - 6%
2007 - 4%
2006 - 7%
2005 - 14%


Home Runs per Fly Ball
2008 - 27%
2007 - 31%
2006 - 16%
2005 - 14%

As bad as that looks, there is some good news here. First off, EVERYONE is popping up the ball at alarming amounts early in the season. Secondly, since Hafner's fly ball rate is back to pre-Proon levels, once he gets his timing in order a lot of those infield flies should (hopefully) turn into outfield flies (and hopefully a higher HR rate).

So why aren't those line drives and outfield flies turning into more hits? Believe it, or not, Travis Hafner is suffering from bad luck this season. His BABIP thus far is 0.267. Now, some players have a terrible BABIP because they hit very few line drives and a ton more grounders and fly balls, both of which are more easily converted into outs. 2008 Hafner isn't one of those players.

Using THT's 2007 Batted Ball Data (subscription only), I used a simple linear regression to find a correlation between LD%, GB%, IF%, HR%, non-HR OF% with a player's BABIP. The results weren't great, but they were good enough to give us an idea if a player is getting completely screwed by luck.

BABIP by Batted Ball Type (2007)
GB = 0.200
LD = 0.730
IF = 0.000
HR = 1.000
non-HR Outfield Fly = 15%

BABIP - expected BABIP Results
Mean Difference = 9.29%
Median Difference = 7.55%
Std. Dev. of Difference = 7.32%

Clearly the standard deviation isn't what one would hope for. Still, if a player's BABIP is off by his expected BABIP by more than 15% (mean + deviation), we can say, with confidence, that he has been the recipient of luck (good or bad).

From the results below, we can see that Pronk, Gutierrez and Dellucci have BABIPs much lower than you'd expect from their batted ball distribution. Look for their numbers to rebound. The opposite may be true for Garko......

Hardball Times (via. Baseball Info Solutions) keeps track of all data for balls in play, beginning in 2004. Here's THT's data for the 2008 Cleveland Indians. What struck me when I was perusing their site yesterday, was that the Indians' hitters were popping up an inordinate amount of the time. Almost everyone's IF/F (infield fly per fly ball) numbers were a couple of factors larger than they should be. Unsurprisingly, fewer fly balls (HR/F) are reaching the bleachers. However, players' line drive rates and ground ball rates aren't out of whack in similar proportions.

Some questions (which I'm not smart enough to answer).....

1) Is the disparity between early season IF/F and HR/F rates and previous full season rates, simply a matter of players not having their timing down?

2) Is there anything Shelton can/should be doing to help the players get in rhythm quicker?

Observations from the data below.....
(As limited as the data is, it does have value because it is telling us what kind of contact players are making thus far. But yes, these numbers have zero predictive value)

1) Aside from suffering from pop up-itis, like everyone else, Hafner's LD%, HR/F and GB% are inching away from his 2007 rates to their 2005 levels. Once he stops popping up, will Hafners HR/F rate increase to 2005-2006 levels? I'm praying so.

2) Whatever Victor isn't popping up, he's killing with line drives (36%). His LD% explains his high BA/BIP numbers.

3) Jhonny's poor line drive rate (6.7%) explains why he's having a tough time buying a hit. Other numbers (GB%, HR/F, IF/F) are in the ballpark of good 'ol Jhonny.

4) With a 0.194 BA/BIP, you could argue that God simply hates Blake. But he's hitting fewer line drives and hitting a hell of a lot more grounders. With Blake's luck, his luck probably won't turn around (a permeating syllogism, no?).

5) It hard to say too much about Dellucci's power numbers since his power (HR/F) has declined each year. While he was injured in 2007, he's hitting with the same power that he did in that year. Is it reasonable to expect more of his fly balls to start going out? Who knows? But since his other numbers (LD%, IF/F, BA/BIP) are within his 2005-2007 range, Dellucci's probably showing us all the power he has left in his bat.

6) Once Grady inverts his IF/F and HR/F numbers, which he will, we'll have the Grady we all know and love back.

_______________________________________________________

LEGEND:

* - N'Sync means a player's numbers, in a given category, are within two standard deviations of his three year average.

* - Numbers highlighted in blue mean a player's numbers, in said category, are 'colder' than his previous average. (ex: A lower HR/F is 'colder', while a higher number is 'hotter')

* - The concept of 'cold' or 'hot' doesn't really make intuitive sense with respect to GB rates. So, all out of sync GB numbers are in blue.

 

The Good......

1) Wes Hodges is treating AA pitchers to his "see ball, hit ball" motto....
2) Beau Mills is posting quality numbers in every department - Ks, BBs and XBH
3) Aside from getting butchered in his second start, Laffey has had two very strong outings in AA with decent K/9 numbers.

The Bad.....

1) Weglarz isn't hitting, period. That said it probably isn't his fault since people seem intent on walking him 39% of the time [14 BB].
2) No one, except for Andy Gonazalez, is doing much of anything with the bat at AAA
3) Jeff Stevens gave up his first runs of the season! He sucks!

The Ugly.....

1) Lofgren has a bad case of the C.C [WHIP = 2.31]
2) Chris Giminez can't seem to buy a hit, while Hodges can't buy a walk. Maybe AA pitchers want to consider sending the hittable pitches Giminez's way and the walks Hodges' way? Just saying.....

 

 

 

 

We've had a little over a week of action in Class AAA Buffalo and Class AA Akron. Not that this is any great feat, but Tribe hitters seem to a lot hotter in minors than they are in the majors. Pitchers? Not so much. Here are this week's minor lines.....

The Good.............

1) Andy Gonzalez is doing his best Barry Bonds impression in Buffalo. Let's see how long that lasts.
2) Brad Snyder and small sample sizes seem to agree. For now!
3) Wes Hodges, Michael Aubrey and Matt Whitney look to have packed their whuppin' sticks for the trip from Florida to Akron. Good to see.
4) The Beau Weglarz entity is rockin' the walks in Kinston (8 between the two of them).

The Bad..........

1) Ben Francisco hasn't gotten hot yet, but is walking at a decent clip.
2) Wyatt Toreagas still can't do much of anything with the bat.
3) Potential bullpen reinforcements - Mujica, Mastny and Slocum - have had a rought time so far.

The Ugly.......

1) Laffey and Lofgren have gotten tagged in a couple of their outings. Both are sporting WHIPs over 2.00.
2) J-Rod has one hit in 21 ABs, but has posted decent BB/K numbers (3:4).

                                                                                                     HITTERS

 

 

 

 

Poll

First position player called up in 2008 will be.....

70%

Francisco, Ben

36 votes

5%

Brown, Jordan

3 votes

1%

Snyder, Brad

1 votes

17%

Barfield, Josh

9 votes

3%

Gonzalez, Andy

2 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

Continue reading this post »

With the season underway, a lot of the talking heads have started issuing their predictions for the 2008 season. Today ESPN unveiled their expert picks, and Steve Phillips' picks especially gave me a lot of reason to hope. He picked the Detroit Tigers to win the AL Central! From "Cliff Lee is the best left handed pitcher in baseball" to "Detroit is the team to beat in 2007", Steve Phillips has been on the wrong side of quite a few pre-season assessments. While I can't figure out if Steve Phillips acts as a jinx, or if he is simply a terrible prognosticator, its clear that reality hates him. Further reassuring me is that Phillips' more astute colleagues(Olney and Law), picked Cleveland to repeat. Anyway, here's a look at what's out there in terms of picks....

Tom Verducci's Picks
ESPN Expert Picks

Here are my division winners and wildcards.......

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Seattle Mariners

NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers

AL Wild Card: Detroit Tigers (only because the AL East will be completely brutal)
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies

 

WHO DO YOU HAVE WINNING IN 2008?

 

A while back I purchased Bill James' 2008 projections (March update) to evaluate players for my fantasy baseball league. This offseason, I carried out a review of BP's, Bill James' and CBS Sportsline's 2007 preseason projections. It really wasn't all that close. Bill James' 2007 projections came out in front by a mile. Relative to each other, they were all pretty good. But CBS overestimated hitter production across the board and BP underestimated it across the board. No one really distinguished themselves with the pitcher projections.

Having settled on a projection source, I wanted to see how Detroit and Cleveland were projected to matchup. At first glance, Detroit's offseason moves make it seem like they're going to handily beat us. That said, I've felt that Detroit aging roster should put them in line for some drops in production, thus mitigating the addition Cabrera. Factor in the continued development of Garko, Gutierrez, Asdrubal, etc..., and you should really have two evenly matched teams in Cleveland and Detroit. Here are the results.......

Continue reading this post »

I think we've all gotten a chance to get a feel for how most of the players are doing in spring training. While its a tad early to make informed season predictions based on the early part of spring training, lets get some of our informed predictions out in the open. I'm sure Jay or Ryan will have a 'Season Predictions' thread up before the start of the season.

p.s: Here are last year's predictions, just for reference.

Here are some of my 'warm up' predictions....

(1) Gutierrez will uncork atleast 25 bombs this season.

(2) 'The Adam Miller Show' gets back on track in the minors, resulting in a July callup and a move to the 'pen.

(3) Asdrubal develops more power than people expect of him (0.450 SLG or higher in the second half).

(4) Lee rebounds (4.40 ERA), giving the Indians a solid season.

* - Long term, I see Asdrubal as a 15-20HR SS with excellent on-base skills.

One of my pet peeves with Indians management is their tendency to certainty of veteran mediocrity to the uncertainty of promising youngsters. Then again, I don't have to worry about options, contracts and the fiscal implications of a down seasons. Having watched a spring games, I think I can make a few 'gut' calls and am going to take a stab at constructing the Indians' 25 roster. I have tempered by irrational exuberance with young players in favor of contract realities. Here's what I have....

Roster:

 C Matrinez
 C Shoppach

1B Garko
2B Cabrera
SS Peralta
3B Blake
2B Carroll
IF <one of the players received in Marte/Michaels trade>

OF Dellucci
OF Francisco
OF Sizemore
OF Gutierrez

SP Sabathia
SP Carmona
SP Westbrook
SP Byrd
SP Lee

RP Borowski
RP Betancourt
RP Perez
RP Kobayashi
RP Lewis
RP Mastny
RP Mujica
RP Miller

(scratch Miller, forgot about Hafner)

- So nothing really adventurous here. Marte is done. That swing of his too high maintenance and takes a while to uncork. I have seen no adjustments from him, nor any desire to let the ball get deep and hammer it the other way.

- I don't understand the value or purpose of Michaels. I get that Francisco's platoon split is really an anti-platoon split, but surely he can replicate Michaels' overall contribution (defense+offense). No?

- Fultz is beyond useless to me. But apparently we NEED two lefties in the 'pen. How many times last season did we see Fultz called in to get ONE lefty out and end up walking the guy? The numbers actually say that he wasn't THAT bad. 14 of 45 inherited runners scored. That isn't abysmal, but I just have an irrational dislike of Fultz.

Future Moves:

- Trade Peralta (or move him to 3rd). Its not that I don't like Peralta, but I'm really impressed with Barfield's adjustments. He keeps his hands lower now, giving him a little more time before he has to react. His K numbers in spring aren't great, but I like what I see from AB to AB. Unlike Marte who isn't striking out because he's popping up junk pitches early in the count, Barfield is actually making pitchers work. I'd put Barfield in AAA to start the season. Once it becomes clear that Asdrubal is a bonafide talent, move him to SS and call up Barfield. Let him backup to start out. But when he starts to look legit, trade Peralta or move him to third. The infield defense improves and the team will have SOME speed.

- Trade Lee when Laffey and Sowers start to look like competent replacements.

- Option one of the relievers to make room for Choo when he comes off the DL.

-

What's your 25-man roster?

Baseball America just came out with their annual analysis of the Indians' farm system. No real surprises although Ben Francisco finally cracked a top 10 prospects list for the Indians. Is that saying something good about Francisco or something bad about our farm system? Who knows! Here's the top ten.....

1.      Adam Miller, rhp
   
2.     Chuck Lofgren, lhp
   
3.     Beau Mills, 3b/1b
   
4.     Wes Hodges, 3b
   
5.     Aaron Laffey, lhp
   
6.     Nick Weglarz, of
   
7.     Jordan Brown, of
   
8.     David Huff, lhp
   
9.     Ben Francisco, of
   
10.     Jensen Lewis, rhp

I really do hope that their projection for the Indians' 2010 roster holds true. Weglarz in LF, Mills at 3B! Oddly enough, they see Garko holding off Jordan Brown at 1B and the Indians keeping Peralta at SS.

The Cleveland Indians are poised to enter the 2008 season with at least two sinker-ball pitchers (Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook) on their starting rotation. The emergence of Aaron Laffey threatens to add a third groundballer to the starting mix. Fielding such a rotation would mean that the Indians' defense will play an even greater role in 2008 than in years past.

For reasons that don't need much explaining here, we'll disregard a player's fielding percentage in evaluating the Indians' defense. While I know many you are fans of the `range factor' metric, I'm disinclined to use it as an evaluative tool because it depends heavily on the tendencies of a team's pitching staff. For example, shortstops like Michael Young and Jhonny Perlata, who are adequate at best, rank near the top of the league in terms of range factor. Jose Reyes, who in the view of most scouts is a superior defender, possesses one of the lowest range factors in all of baseball. This discrepancy is easily explained when you consider that Michael Young and Jhonny Peralta played behind pitching staffs with GB-rates of 47% and 45% respectively. Conversely, Jose Reyes was stuck behind a Mets staff that had one of the lowest GB-rates at 40%. There many other metrics less prone to this weakness, like the plus/minus scores or BP's fielding-runs-above-replacement (FRAR). However, I will stick to using the relatively well understood zone rating when evaluating defensive performance. In particular, I will use the Revised Zone Rating (RZR) developed by John Dewan, now with Baseball Info Solutions.

-

Poll

My second choice trade target is......

7%

Jason Bay

4 votes

12%

Austin Kearns

7 votes

16%

Brian Roberts

9 votes

38%

Alez Rios

21 votes

0%

Raul Ibanez

0 votes

1%

Shannon Stewart

1 votes

7%

Orlando Hudson

4 votes

1%

Randy Winn

1 votes

3%

Mark Teahen

2 votes

9%

David DeJesus

5 votes

54 votes | Poll has closed

Continue reading this post »

Alex Rios has done a good job of making it through the rumor mill the last couple of days. First he was linked in a possible trade to the Indians, which turned out to be bogus. Now he has cropped up in trade rumors involving a swap with the Giants for Tim Lincecum.  I don't understand how this makes much sense for San Francisco because they don't have just one hole in their lineup, but six or seven. If the Giants are intent on moving Lincecum, he's better suited to a 3-for-1 or a 4-for-1 swap that would bring in prospects at multiple positions. That said, Rios does seem to be a much better player than I thought him to be initially. He's clearly one of the top five or ten outfielders in the American League.

I think we match up very well with the Giants given the number of young position players we have in our system. Plus, the Indians have shown an interest in Tim Lincecum in the past. He was our 42nd pick in the 2005 draft. Seven figure salary demands prevented the Indians from signing him. Can we come up with a fair package that the Giants would be interested in? They're not necessarily going to want players we want to get rid of. So, take a look at their roster and minor league system.

The Indians won't want to make a move that put their 2008 campaign in serious doubt or jeopardy. So lets just assume that the following players won't be traded for Lincecum under any circumstances -

1. Victor Martinez
   
2. Grady Sizemore
   
3. Travis Hafner
   
4. Carsten Charles
   
5. Fausto Carmona
   
6. Jake Westbrook

The following players could be included in a trade because their production could be replaceable with internal options, but they are still highly unlikely to be moved.

7. Ryan Garko (Casey Blake at 1B, Marte at 3B, Brown potentially waiting in the wings to take over at 1B)
   
8. Jhonny Peralta (Asdrubal at SS, Barfield at 2B)

p.s: I'm tempted to include Asdrubal here, but we've only seen him in the majors for a little over a month. Even though he cut down his K's and upped his walks as the season drew to a close, I think he's a trade candidate (albeit low probability one).

Let's hear it! What's your trade package?

Continue reading this post »

Find a grain of salt. Ready?

Courtesy of Steve Phillips....

There are rumblings that the Pirates could trade left fielder Jason Bay to the Indians for catcher Kelly Shoppach and left-hander Cliff Lee.

Reaction -  Good trade, Bad trade, why?

Poll

Jason Bay for Kelly Shoppach and Cliff Lee?

60%

I like it!

117 votes

39%

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

77 votes

194 votes | Poll has closed

..... by spring training and its clear that he won't sign one during the season, the Indians should.....

A) .... keep C.C for the 2008 season.
B) .... trade him to another team if the price (in prospects) is right.

After taking a look at the Indians' payroll commitments for the next few years and seeing the extensions signed by Zambrano, Oswalt, etc..., I felt that the Indians stood a realistic chance of extending C.C for another 4-5 years. However, after reading Gammons' blog post today, I'm a little less certain now. Maybe he has a good beat on the market's pulse, but I doubt this is much more than an 'educated' guess. If Peter G turns out to be right, what would you prefer the Indians do? If you're in the 'trade him' crowd, for what package of prospects would you move C.C Sabathia this offseason?

Poll

If C.C doesn't sign an extension.....

45%

... trade him for prospects instead of settling for picks in the 2009 draft.

38 votes

54%

... keep him for the 2008 season.

45 votes

83 votes | Poll has closed

View the complete list. Also, there's video highlights of each of the top 50 prospects on the list. Miller is the only Tribe prospect who makes the list. I guess this isn't too surprising given the wealth of youngsters on our major league team. I'm impressed that Adam Miller made it so high on the list because injuries derailed his maiden AAA campaign. His ranking this high is a real testament to his stuff. Hopefully, he's our future ace.

From MILB.com.....

When he's 100 percent, he still can crank his fastball up to the mid- to upper-90s, complementing it with a good changeup and a plus, plus slider. Finger and elbow injuries really slowed him down in 2007 and likely cost him a chance to reach Cleveland for the first time, but he managed to return for the Arizona Fall League season. He's got front-of-the-rotation stuff if he can stay on the mound. He also has a power arsenal that could work well in a bullpen role if the Indians have a need or want to protect his arm.

By now all have you have heard the boundless rumors concerning Santana going to the Spankees. If rumors are to be believed, there are more intriguing moves in the offing - Morneau to the Angels, Boof Bonser to the Rays and I'm sure we can manufacture a rumor about Joe Nathan with some hard work and fake email addresses.

One of the reasons Minnesota's moves interest me (aside from the fact that we'll be whipping their asses again this year), is that they have a nice crop of young pitchers just reaching the majors - Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins,  Matt Garza and Scott Baker. I haven't look at comparable pitchers in other organizations to know whether these numbers mean much, but I throw these tidbits out there - All four of those guys are polished collegiate products who had career minor league WHIPs of less than 1.10, K/9 rates close the 9.00 and only Glen Perkins had a career minor league ERA higher than 3.00. If all of that sounds good, consider that the Twins could easily have Francisco Liriano pitching alongside these guys in 2008. Yikes!

The good news is that they had s*** for offense last year. The bad news is that Santana and Nathan gives two pieces to trade for high quality hitting prospects.

Trade Chips - Santana, Nathan, apparently Moreneau
Position Players Not Going Anywhere - Mauer, Cuddyer, Bartlett

The question - what moves do you make if you're the Twins GM?

It is abundantly clear to me that I can't wait till spring training to start pretending that I know what the season will bring. With much of the 2007 core remaining intact, only a few questions need be answered with regard to the roster. Still, there are some fun questions to ponder over - will Franklin put up better numbers against RHP's, who takes over pie duties from Nixon, and so on. To get the ball rolling, here are some questions bound to be on everyone's mind.....

Continue reading this post »

Should the Tribe trade for Miguel Cabrera, he would be under our control for two more years (2008, 2009). I certainly haven't been a fan of trading for him because we'd likely have to empty our farm system to get him. However, the prospective Santana bidding frenzy made me wonder whether the Indians should consider trading for Miguel Cabrera this year, then turn around and trade him to someone else the following season. A one-year rental on Miguel Cabrera could still net us some decent talent a year from now.

The cons of doing the one-year M-Cab rental are obvious....

He could suck donkey balls, killing all trade value and assuring us that our farm system would be barren for a few years.

The more realistic fear is that M-Cab has a great year, but he isn't able to fetch us even one top notch prospect a year from now.

My question to everybody is - 'What would the difference in prospects be for a two-year rental on M-Cab, versus a one-year rental?'

-

-

-

-

-

-

Just thought I'd run through the pros too.....

1. WHO'S ON THIRD?

Runs created by position in 2007,

CATCHER (108) / (Martinez 87, Shoppach 21)

FIRST BASE (97) / (Garko 76, Martinez 14)

SECOND BASE (60) / (Barfield 37, Cabrera 19)

THIRD BASE (81) / (Blake 74)

SHORTSTOP (87) / (Peralta 84)

LEFT FIELD (77) / (Michaels 28, Lofton 21, Dellucci 20)

CENTER FIELD (122) / (Sizemore 122)

RIGHT FIELD (84) / (Gutierrez 38, Nixon 34)

DESIGNATED HITTER (102) / (Hafner 95)

Aside from second base, there were no true offensive black holes on the 2007 team. Obviously upgrading our second base situation would give us the biggest boost in 2008. There isn't an impact second baseman on the market. However, Miguel Cabrera would have the potential to add 50 runs in either left field or third base. Ok, this isn't news to anyone. Just thought I cover my bases.

-

2. 2008 LOOKS AN AWFUL LOT LIKE 2007

Put another way, we don't need our minor league system to produce any impact players next year. Last year, Franklin, Perez, Lewis, Cabrera, Carmona and Laffey played significant roles in getting the Indians across the finish line. While we are bound to be dealt a couple of injuries  or have someone pull a Hafner, things look a lot more set than they did a year ago. Therefore, we can afford to trade away some minor league pieces without dooming the team in 2008. If things work out well, we should be able to restock the farm system when we trade Cabrera after the 2008 season.

-

3. WE HAVE ROOM FOR A $12M PLAYER!

Our payroll figures to be around $65M in 2008 since we're essentially returning the same as we had in 2007. Even if we re-sign C.C, the figure goes up to about $75M at worst. In 2006, the Indians had a $56M payroll and had on operating income of $25M. Payroll went up about $5M in 2007, but we did have a winning season and probably took in a little more in revenue than last year. So expecting $20M in income for 2007 isn't that far fetched. That figure should cover both the increase from C.C new deal and Miguel Cabrera's one year price tag of $12M.

-

There aren't going be very many years where we can do essentially next to nothing during the offseason and wake up with a 96 win team going into spring training. Entering a season without having to bank on either (A) a key free agency acquisition or (B) the development of a prospect gives us a unique opportunity to temporarily decimate the farm system in order to field a team better than the one we saw last year.

 

Given that Rosenthal was spot on with the Kobayashi signing, I'm willing to take this story with fewer than the usual number of grains of salt.

The Dodgers stand a better chance of acquiring Cabrera from the Marlins, major-league sources say, if they are willing to part with outfielder Matt Kemp along with third baseman Andy LaRoche and minor-league left-hander Clayton Kershaw.

Yeah, there's a big 'IF' in there. We had a discussion about trading for Cabrera a while back. What do you think about the Dodgers potentially trading Kemp, LaRoche and Keshaw for two expensive year of Migeul Cabrera? Good move by the Dodgers? Do the Marlins make out like bandits?

Here's the part of the story that really gets me....

If the Dodgers traded Kemp, it would increase the likelihood that they would sign a free-agent center fielder and move Juan Pierre to left field. Club officials are leaning toward Aaron Rowand, who would be less expensive than Torii Hunter and perhaps Andruw Jones.

At this point it seems like signing A-Rod ($28M/yr) would have been cheaper than trading away three cost-controlled players and replacing them with Migeul Cabrera ($12M/yr), an overpaid CF ($12M/yr) and a free agent pitcher (in place of Kershaw). Plus, I think the production overall would have been better with A-Rod and the kids versus Miggy, overpaid CF and Mr. Free Agent Pitcher.

I've never heard of the guy, but apparently we're making a big play for him. I guess Shapiro is serious when he says you can never have too many bullpen arms. Has anyone taken a look at this guy? He's apparently 33 years old and averaged 31 saves over the last few years. Take a look at his stats. Nothing too terribly impressive by way for K/9 or ERA. It'll be interesting to see what kind of money he gets. - -

Kobayashi from 2 years ago and not at his best.

For a quick reference on questions like.....

... how many more runs could the tribe score with Miguel Cabrera at 3B instead of Blake?

... do we have sufficient depth at the minor league level to trade away a cost controlled outfielder?

... what kind of damage would taking on Brian Roberts' salary do to the Indians?

2008 IMPACT:

Source: The Hardball Times

Runs Created By Position Players:

Note #1: Runs created estimates for players are based on a 3 year average unless otherwise noted.
Note #2: For each player for where the estimate is based on a 3 year average, the player in question did not miss significant time to injury during any one of the years.

1. Sizemore - 118
   
2. Cabrera* - 95 (prorated 2007 RC for 650 plate appearance)
   
3. Hafner - 111
   
4. Martinez - 101
   
5. Garko* - 75 (added 3 RC to 2007 total to account for bench role in April 2007)
   
6. Peralta - 82
   
7. Dellucci/Michaels* - 90 (based on 3 year average of the platoon members' splits)
   
8. Blake - 63
   
9. Gutierrez* - 75 (prorated 2007 RC for 650 PAs and downward adjusted by 3 RC)

Each major league team can expect its hitters to come up to the plate around 6200 times in a given year. The average number of plate appearances per player listed above is around 650. This leaves 350PAs unaccounted for. Assuming the Indians' bench performs at a rate only marginally better than Josh Barfield, we can expect the bench in this hypothetical scenario to create 40 runs of offense.

Runs Scored in 2008 - 850

Runs Allowed By Pitching Staff

I really had no idea on how to estimate runs allowed by the pitching staff. ERAs and innings pitched vary by a wide margin from year to year. The one quantity that seemed to vary less than others was FIP. Now, how valuable FIP is at estimating actual performance, I don't know. Out of ideas, I decided to use a pitcher's FIP anyway. Where possible, I used a 3 year average of the player's FIP and calculated the earned runs against. I also tacked on 0.30 runs to the FIP to account for unearned runs given up by the pitcher. For example, from 2005-2007, Sabathia had an average FIP of about 3.45. Adding on the 0.30 to this total gave me a runs against average of 3.75 for Sabathia. I pulled the innings pitched estimates for the starters out of thin air too.

Finally, with the bullpen, I simply assumed that they pitched the remaining innings to get the pitching staff up to a total of 1465 innings for the season (which is about average). Since the bullpen is essentially the same as the one from last year and since they had an ERA of 3.73 for the season, I assumed that they could be counted on for an earned run average of 4.00 in 2008. Tacking on the 0.30 runs against to account for errors and the like, I estimated that the Tribe bullpen would surrender 4.30 run against per nine innings over the course of the season.  

1. Sabathia [ 210 IP x (3.45+0.30)RA ] = 87.5
   
2. Carmona [ 210 IP x (4.00+0.30)RA ] = 100.3
   
3. Westbrook [ 200 IP x (4.10+0.30)RA ] = 97.7
   
4. Byrd [ 190IP x (4.55+0.30)RA ] = 102.4
   
5. #5 Starter [ 190IP x (5.00+0.30)RA ] = 111.9
6. Bullpen [ 465IP x (4.00+0.30)RA ] = 222.2

Runs Allowed in 2008 - 720
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ORGANIZATIONAL DEPTH (AAA, AA and A+ levels)

I won't claim to have any skill at identifying prospects. What I hope do add in this section is simply add a list of minor league players who meet certain thresholds. The bar is set a little low since players are assessed solely on their minor league numbers.

Performance Thresholds:

Position Players - .750 OPS or higher

Pitchers - 1.40 WHIP or lower

Age Limits (met performance threshold in either 2006 or 2007 at the below ages or younger):

Kinston - 22 years or younger

Akron - 23 year or younger

Buffalo - 24 year or younger

Catchers:
no prospects

First Basemen / Outfielders
Ben Francisco, OF (AAA)
Shin-Soo Choo, OF (AAA)
Trevor Crowe, OF (AA)
Jordan Brown, 1B/OF (AA)
Stephen Head, 1B (AA)
Beau Mills, 1B/3B (A+)

Middle Infielders
Josh Rodriguez, SS (A+)

Third Basemen
Andy Marte, 3B (AAA)
Wes Hodges, 3B (A+)
Jared Goedert, 3B (A+)

Pitchers
Sean Smith, SP (AAA)
Jeremy Sowers, SP (AAA)
Aaron Laffey, SP (AAA)
Adam Miller, SP (AAA)
Ed Mujica, RP (AAA)
Shawn Nottingham, SP (AA)
Chuck Lofgren, SP (AA)
Scott Lewis, SP (AA)
Jeff Stevens, RP (AA)
Erik Stiller, RP (A+)
David Huff, SP (A+)
Josh Tomlin, SP (A+)
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PLAYER SALARY PICTURE (2008 - 2011)

Source: Cot's Baseball Contracts

Note #1: `Salary Commitments' does not include players who are being paid on a year-by-year basis, either at the major league minimum or through arbitration.

Note #2: ‘Core players’ refers to the 22 following players – Catchers (Martinez, Shoppach) / Infielders (Garko, Barfield, Cabrera, Peralta, Blake) / Outfielders (Dellucci, Michaels, Sizemore, Gutierrez) / Designated Hitters (Hafner) / Starting Pitchers (Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook, Byrd, Lee) / Relievers (Betancourt, Perez, Lewis, Borowski, Fultz)

2008
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Salary Commitments: $46.20M

Options: $13.00M (Paul Byrd / Joe Borowski / Aaron Fultz)

Maximum Commitments: $59.20M

Arbitration Eligible (2): Casey Blake / Rafael Betancourt

Free Agents (0): none

Core players left - 22/22

2009
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Salary Commitments: $44.95M

Options: $2.60M (Jason Michaels)

Maximum Commitments: $47.55M

Arbitration Eligible (1): Rafael Betancourt

Free Agents (5): C.C Sabathia / Paul Byrd / Casey Blake / Joe Borowski / Aaron Fultz

Core players left - 17/22

2010
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Salary Commitments: $32.70M

Options: $15.00M (Victor Martinez / Cliff Lee)

Maximum Commitments: $47.70M

Arbitration Eligible (6): Fausto Carmona / Ryan Garko / Franklin Gutierrez / Kelly Shoppach / Josh Barfield

Free Agents (3): Rafael Betancourt / David Dellucci / Jason Michaels

Core players left - 14/22

2011
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Salary Commitments: $20.50M

Options: $7.00M (Jhonny Peralta)

Maximum Commitments: $27.50M

Arbitration Eligible (8): Fausto Carmona / Ryan Garko / Franklin Gutierrez / Kelly Shoppach / Josh Barfield / Asdrubal Cabrera / Jensen Lewis

Free Agents (3): Victor Martinez / Jake Westbrook / Cliff Lee

Core players left - 11/22

** THERE ARE BOUND TO BE MISTAKES APLENTY. FEEL FREE TO ADD ANY CORRCTIONS OR CRITICISMS.

This is picking up on a post from the Giants blog (McCoveyChronicles.com). I'm not going to put in my own words what was well said by Grant on this blog. Read on and tell the LGT community about your 'white whale'.

Billy Beane used to call Erubiel Durazo his "white whale", which meant that Durazo was a player Beane had coveted for a long time. "White whale" is a reference to the Mastodon album "Leviathan" , which rocks so hard that the white whale reference was rocked back in time to Beane before the album came out. There are still some holes in that theory, but if you can think of a more logical explanation for where the term "white whale" came from, I'd like to read it.

Point is, a white whale -- at least, in baseball terms -- is a player who you think would fit your team perfectly. My white whale used to be Asdrubal Cabrera of the Indians. He's a 21-year-old shortstop who is reputed to have a great glove. He had a fantastic season in AAA, and the Indians already had a long-term shortstop with Jhonny Peralta.

Alas, Cabrera is now close to untouchable. He's in the majors, and he's playing well. It probably would take something more than a Sanchez or Lowry to pry him away.

I've moved on. My new white whale is Steven Pearce. He's a right-handed hitter with power, he plays a position at which the Giants don't have any prospects, and he's blocked by Adam LaRoche.

Who's the one player you are irrationally attached to? Give us a little background/scouting report on your 'white whale'

Like most of you, I'm trying real hard to not think beyond this series. I don't want to tempt the wrath of the whatever high atop the thing! So, to take my mind off things, I decided to stroll through the wreckage of the 2002 Indians and try and see how we got here. Lost of surprises and unexpected bumps, but things turned out ok.

Here are how things evolved at each position of the last five years. Take a stroll through memory lane and share your thoughts on some/any of the players below....

DESIGNED DESTROYER
(Applications for the position closed as of 2004)

2002. Ellis Burks
      
2003. Ellis Burks / Travis Hafner
      
2004. Travis Hafner
      
2005. Travis Hafner
      
2006. Travis Hafner
      
2007. Travis Hafner

CATCHER
(Applications for the position closed as of 2004)

2002. Einar Diaz / Eddie Perez / Josh Bard
      
2003. Josh Bard / Victor Martinez
      
2004. Victor Martinez
      
2005. Victor Martinez
      
2006. Victor Martinez
      
2007. Victor Martinez

Poll

Worst free agent signing in the Shapiro era?

27%

Ricky Gutierrez

27 votes

40%

Aaron Boone

40 votes

21%

Matt Lawton

21 votes

12%

Shane Spencer

12 votes

100 votes | Poll has closed

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I recognize that each and everyone one of us loyal Indians fans would first ask A-Rod to opt out of his contract and then trade Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain and Cano to the Indians for Tom Mastny. But it might just be a little more fun to put yourself in Brian Cashman's shoes and build a better $200M team. If you're Cahsman, what more could you ask for (aside from a 2007 WS ring)? You've got enormous payroll flexibility with huge contracts coming off the board in the next couple of years. Your farm system is flush with young pitching talent and you have the best position player in baseball on your team. I'd love to be offered Cashman's job. Well, to be more precise, I'd love to be offered a GM job where I had $200M in annual payroll and three stud pitching prospects. Since that isn't going to happen, I might as well speculate on what I'd do with this boatload of riches. I'll post my musings in the comments.

Any thoughts on what you'd do if you were the Yankees' GM?

Below is a list the Yankees' key position players and pitchers (along with their contract situation):

 C: Posada, Jorge (free agent)
1B: Giambi, Jason ($21M in 2008, $22M option with $5M buyout in 2009, no-trade)
2B: Cano, Robinson (under control thru 2010)
SS: Jeter, Derek ($20M/yr till 2010, no-trade)
3B: Rodriguez, Alex (essentially a free agent)
LF: Matsui, Hideki ($13M/yr thru 2009, no-trade)
CF: Cabrera, Melky (under control thru 2011)
RF: Abreu, Bobby ($16M team option for 2008)
DH: Damon, Johnny ($13M/yr, thru 2009, partial no-trade)

SP1: Wang, Chien Ming (under control for ?)
SP2: Pettitte, Andy ($16M player option for 2008)
SP3: Clemens, Roger (free agent)
SP4: Mussina, Mike ($11M for 2008, no-trade)
SP5: Hughes, Phil (under control thru 2013)

SU1: Chamberlain, Joba (under control thru 2013)
SU2: Farnsworth, Kyle ($5.5M in 2008)
CL: Rivera, Mariano (free agent)

Prospects of note: Ian Kennedy, Edwar Ramirez, Shelley Duncan, Jose Veras, Tyler Clippard, Dellin Betances, J Brent Cox, Humberto Sanchez, Jose Tabata, Ross Ohlendorf

Also draining the coffers: Carl Pavano ($11M in 2008, no-trade), Kei Igawa ($4M/yr thru 2011)

Anyone know of any good baseball/Cleveland friendly bars in San Diego? Or an idea of where I can find one? Is there a website that keeps track of watering holes for Tribe transplants?

p.s: I've had a couple of days to digest the whole LeBron-Yankees brouhaha, but I haven't yet found a single mention (outside of Gammons) of his most unforgivable offense - hijacking Cleveland's day in the sun for personal gain. If he was such a die hard Yankees fan, why haven't I seen him at ANY of their previous playoffs games over the last 3-4 years? Couldn't afford the airfare? Why wait till now? Now was the time when his exposure would be at a maximum. You couldn't write the "City Icon Roots Against Home Team" story until the Indians made the playoffs. Given that the Yankees attract a large number of bandwagon fans, LeBron just introduced himself to every implement in Tool-dom. Talk radio, ESPN, .... everyone featured a little segment on LeBron's 'betrayal'. Classless, but brilliant on LeBron's part.  

With the exception of the NL Wild Card, the postseaon teams and matchups have been set. The contests will be settled on the field. However, the games don't start till Wednesday and the national media (including the glorious wisdom of John 'Wang is the Cy Young' Kruk) is bound to fill the void by offering us no end of 'wisdom' and predictions. In my mind, the postseason is a complete crapshoot and anyone claiming to know what the secret ingredient to postseason success is, is full of it.

I call on you to share the mad rambling CW that you will doubt hear when you read the Plain Dealer, the New York Post(al) or watch ESPN and what have you. You'll probably hear that pitching wins championships. Or 'heart' might be the secret ingredient. Still other will convince us that the almighty 'postseason experience' will help players maintain steady bowel movements during games, thus helping them win playoff games. List any and all nuggets you come across.....

Anyone know when MLB plans to announce which series the Red Sox choose. I've gotta assume that they like the longer series, believing that they could use the rest bring in their frontline relievers as often as need. Not to mention not having the pitch Wakefield who has been shaky until today's outing. Plus, even if they think choosing the shorter series gives them a shot at Lackey, the Angels could just trot out Lackey on short rest anyway.

As soon as someone knows something, please post the announcement.

My only connection to Philadelphia is that I was born there. I figure I might as well root for the Phighting Phils and show some birthtown pride. They've already gotten to Smoltz (4 runs in the 1st) and I really, really hate the Braves. There's also the matter of San Diego. Don't care much for the Pads myself, but I have totally sweet seats for NLDS Game 1. I wouldn't mind going to that game or charging Mets fans obscene amounts of money to buy the tickets off me. I'm also rootin' for the Brewers, mostly because of the incessant whining of Cubs fans, but also because I love the Brewers' young team. Ditto for the Rockies! For some reason, I don't feel the same love for Arizona. Maybe its because they're going to the playoffs with a negative run differential, while we had to stay at home in October (last year) with a positive run differential!

I set out to compare how the (4-man) rotations of AL playoff teams have fared against the league's better offenses (NYY, DET, BOS, LAA, TEX, CLE). I weighted the performance of each team's #1 and #2 starters by twice the amount I weighted the respective team's #3 and #4 starters. I figure this is justified since the top two pitchers are (a) likely to get more starts in the postseason and (b) go deeper into ball games than the #3 or #4 starters.

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INDIANS

#1 Sabathia (x2)
#2 Carmona (x2)
#3 Westbrook
#4 Byrd

ERA against top offenses: 3.90
ERA against rest of the league: 3.52 (weighted)

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ANGLES

Lackey(x2)
Escobar(x2)
Weaver
Santana

ERA against top offenses: 4.45
ERA against rest of the league: 3.77 (weighted)

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YANKEES

Wang (x2)
Pettite (x2)
Hughes/Kennedy
Mussina/Clemens

ERA against top offenses: 4.36
ERA against rest of the league: 3.97 (weighted)

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RED SOX

Beckett (x2)
Schilling (x2)
Matsuzaka
Wakefield

ERA against top offenses: 4.39
ERA against rest of the league: 3.90 (weighted)

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