SB Nation User Blog: crazymoloh

Pronk vs. Proon: The Fight for the [Baseball] Soul of Travis Hafner

crazymoloh — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 22:27:33 -0000

During the years 2004-2006, Travis Hafner hit like an MVP candidate. That version of Pronk disappeared in 2007. Instead, we were treated to Proon. Proon hit fewer line drives (17%), sent fewer fly balls out of the park (15%) and hit a lot more ground bals (48%). Not surprisingly, Proon wasn't an MVP candidate.

With Hafner's slow start beginning to worry people, we find his 2008 numbers to be a confirmation of our worst fears - further decline. However, I beg to differ. Strongly. What were are witnessing is not a deterioration, but a fight between Proon and Pronk for the baseball soul of Travis Hafner, like in Superman III.

Batted Ball Numbers:

Line Drive Rate
2008 - 25%
2007 - 17%
2006 - 21%
2005 - 20%

GB Rate
2008 - 41%
2007 - 48%
2006 - 39%
2005 - 43%

With the small sample size we have thus far, we are seeing signs of Pronk winning the battle. However, there are a couple of points where his numbers are off.....

Infield Fly per Fly Ball
2008 - 6%
2007 - 4%
2006 - 7%
2005 - 14%

Home Runs per Fly Ball
2008 - 27%
2007 - 31%
2006 - 16%
2005 - 14%

As bad as that looks, there is some good news here. First off, EVERYONE is popping up the ball at alarming amounts early in the season. Secondly, since Hafner's fly ball rate is back to pre-Proon levels, once he gets his timing in order a lot of those infield flies should (hopefully) turn into outfield flies (and hopefully a higher HR rate).

So why aren't those line drives and outfield flies turning into more hits? Believe it, or not, Travis Hafner is suffering from bad luck this season. His BABIP thus far is 0.267. Now, some players have a terrible BABIP because they hit very few line drives and a ton more grounders and fly balls, both of which are more easily converted into outs. 2008 Hafner isn't one of those players.

Using THT's 2007 Batted Ball Data (subscription only), I used a simple linear regression to find a correlation between LD%, GB%, IF%, HR%, non-HR OF% with a player's BABIP. The results weren't great, but they were good enough to give us an idea if a player is getting completely screwed by luck.

BABIP by Batted Ball Type (2007)
GB = 0.200
LD = 0.730
IF = 0.000
HR = 1.000
non-HR Outfield Fly = 15%

BABIP - expected BABIP Results
Mean Difference = 9.29%
Median Difference = 7.55%
Std. Dev. of Difference = 7.32%

Clearly the standard deviation isn't what one would hope for. Still, if a player's BABIP is off by his expected BABIP by more than 15% (mean + deviation), we can say, with confidence, that he has been the recipient of luck (good or bad).

From the results below, we can see that Pronk, Gutierrez and Dellucci have BABIPs much lower than you'd expect from their batted ball distribution. Look for their numbers to rebound. The opposite may be true for Garko......

N'Sync: A Look at Balls in Play Data

crazymoloh — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 20:26:08 -0000

Hardball Times (via. Baseball Info Solutions) keeps track of all data for balls in play, beginning in 2004. Here's THT's data for the 2008 Cleveland Indians. What struck me when I was perusing their site yesterday, was that the Indians' hitters were popping up an inordinate amount of the time. Almost everyone's IF/F (infield fly per fly ball) numbers were a couple of factors larger than they should be. Unsurprisingly, fewer fly balls (HR/F) are reaching the bleachers. However, players' line drive rates and ground ball rates aren't out of whack in similar proportions.

Some questions (which I'm not smart enough to answer).....

1) Is the disparity between early season IF/F and HR/F rates and previous full season rates, simply a matter of players not having their timing down?

2) Is there anything Shelton can/should be doing to help the players get in rhythm quicker?

Observations from the data below.....
(As limited as the data is, it does have value because it is telling us what kind of contact players are making thus far. But yes, these numbers have zero predictive value)

1) Aside from suffering from pop up-itis, like everyone else, Hafner's LD%, HR/F and GB% are inching away from his 2007 rates to their 2005 levels. Once he stops popping up, will Hafners HR/F rate increase to 2005-2006 levels? I'm praying so.

2) Whatever Victor isn't popping up, he's killing with line drives (36%). His LD% explains his high BA/BIP numbers.

3) Jhonny's poor line drive rate (6.7%) explains why he's having a tough time buying a hit. Other numbers (GB%, HR/F, IF/F) are in the ballpark of good 'ol Jhonny.

4) With a 0.194 BA/BIP, you could argue that God simply hates Blake. But he's hitting fewer line drives and hitting a hell of a lot more grounders. With Blake's luck, his luck probably won't turn around (a permeating syllogism, no?).

5) It hard to say too much about Dellucci's power numbers since his power (HR/F) has declined each year. While he was injured in 2007, he's hitting with the same power that he did in that year. Is it reasonable to expect more of his fly balls to start going out? Who knows? But since his other numbers (LD%, IF/F, BA/BIP) are within his 2005-2007 range, Dellucci's probably showing us all the power he has left in his bat.

6) Once Grady inverts his IF/F and HR/F numbers, which he will, we'll have the Grady we all know and love back.

_______________________________________________________

LEGEND:

* - N'Sync means a player's numbers, in a given category, are within two standard deviations of his three year average.

* - Numbers highlighted in blue mean a player's numbers, in said category, are 'colder' than his previous average. (ex: A lower HR/F is 'colder', while a higher number is 'hotter')

* - The concept of 'cold' or 'hot' doesn't really make intuitive sense with respect to GB rates. So, all out of sync GB numbers are in blue.

4/17 - Minor Lines

crazymoloh — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 23:21:08 -0000

The Good......

1) Wes Hodges is treating AA pitchers to his "see ball, hit ball" motto....
2) Beau Mills is posting quality numbers in every department - Ks, BBs and XBH
3) Aside from getting butchered in his second start, Laffey has had two very strong outings in AA with decent K/9 numbers.

The Bad.....

1) Weglarz isn't hitting, period. That said it probably isn't his fault since people seem intent on walking him 39% of the time [14 BB].
2) No one, except for Andy Gonazalez, is doing much of anything with the bat at AAA
3) Jeff Stevens gave up his first runs of the season! He sucks!

The Ugly.....

1) Lofgren has a bad case of the C.C [WHIP = 2.31]
2) Chris Giminez can't seem to buy a hit, while Hodges can't buy a walk. Maybe AA pitchers want to consider sending the hittable pitches Giminez's way and the walks Hodges' way? Just saying.....

4/10 - Minor Lines

crazymoloh — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 19:51:53 -0000

We've had a little over a week of action in Class AAA Buffalo and Class AA Akron. Not that this is any great feat, but Tribe hitters seem to a lot hotter in minors than they are in the majors. Pitchers? Not so much. Here are this week's minor lines.....

The Good.............

1) Andy Gonzalez is doing his best Barry Bonds impression in Buffalo. Let's see how long that lasts.
2) Brad Snyder and small sample sizes seem to agree. For now!
3) Wes Hodges, Michael Aubrey and Matt Whitney look to have packed their whuppin' sticks for the trip from Florida to Akron. Good to see.
4) The Beau Weglarz entity is rockin' the walks in Kinston (8 between the two of them).

The Bad..........

1) Ben Francisco hasn't gotten hot yet, but is walking at a decent clip.
2) Wyatt Toreagas still can't do much of anything with the bat.
3) Potential bullpen reinforcements - Mujica, Mastny and Slocum - have had a rought time so far.

The Ugly.......

1) Laffey and Lofgren have gotten tagged in a couple of their outings. Both are sporting WHIPs over 2.00.
2) J-Rod has one hit in 21 ABs, but has posted decent BB/K numbers (3:4).

HITTERS

PITCHERS

Poll

First position player called up in 2008 will be.....

Francisco, Ben

36 votes

Brown, Jordan

3 votes

Snyder, Brad

1 votes

Barfield, Josh

9 votes

Gonzalez, Andy

2 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

Season Predictions: DIVISION WINNERS & WILD CARDS

crazymoloh — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 19:47:31 -0000

With the season underway, a lot of the talking heads have started issuing their predictions for the 2008 season. Today ESPN unveiled their expert picks, and Steve Phillips' picks especially gave me a lot of reason to hope. He picked the Detroit Tigers to win the AL Central! From "Cliff Lee is the best left handed pitcher in baseball" to "Detroit is the team to beat in 2007", Steve Phillips has been on the wrong side of quite a few pre-season assessments. While I can't figure out if Steve Phillips acts as a jinx, or if he is simply a terrible prognosticator, its clear that reality hates him. Further reassuring me is that Phillips' more astute colleagues(Olney and Law), picked Cleveland to repeat. Anyway, here's a look at what's out there in terms of picks....

Tom Verducci's Picks
ESPN Expert Picks

Here are my division winners and wildcards.......

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: Seattle Mariners

NL East: New York Mets
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers

AL Wild Card: Detroit Tigers (only because the AL East will be completely brutal)
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies

WHO DO YOU HAVE WINNING IN 2008?

See Andy? Hitting the ball to opposite field isn't that hard!

crazymoloh — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 05:07:32 -0000

See Andy? Hitting the ball to opposite field isn't that hard!

Playing baseball in March! Reason #4,508,986 why living in San Diego rules!

crazymoloh — Wed, 26 Mar 2008 05:02:25 -0000

Playing baseball in March! Reason #4,508,986 why living in San Diego rules!

Detroit's Predicted Dominance: A little too much hype?

crazymoloh — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 19:03:12 -0000

A while back I purchased Bill James' 2008 projections (March update) to evaluate players for my fantasy baseball league. This offseason, I carried out a review of BP's, Bill James' and CBS Sportsline's 2007 preseason projections. It really wasn't all that close. Bill James' 2007 projections came out in front by a mile. Relative to each other, they were all pretty good. But CBS overestimated hitter production across the board and BP underestimated it across the board. No one really distinguished themselves with the pitcher projections.

Having settled on a projection source, I wanted to see how Detroit and Cleveland were projected to matchup. At first glance, Detroit's offseason moves make it seem like they're going to handily beat us. That said, I've felt that Detroit aging roster should put them in line for some drops in production, thus mitigating the addition Cabrera. Factor in the continued development of Garko, Gutierrez, Asdrubal, etc..., and you should really have two evenly matched teams in Cleveland and Detroit. Here are the results.......

Note

Total runs scored determined by totaling the runs created by individual players

Offensive production normalized for 6300 plate appearances

Total earned runs allowed determined by totaling the earned runs allowed by individual pitchers

Pitching production normalized for 1450 innings pitched

Team runs allowed calculated by adding in 60 unearned runs to each team's earned run total (in line with the median and mean for recent seasons)

Bottom line: Even with all the fuss about Detroit's offseason moves, they look to be only marginally better (2 wins) than the Tribe

Season Predictions Warmup

crazymoloh — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 17:49:19 -0000

I think we've all gotten a chance to get a feel for how most of the players are doing in spring training. While its a tad early to make informed season predictions based on the early part of spring training, lets get some of our informed predictions out in the open. I'm sure Jay or Ryan will have a 'Season Predictions' thread up before the start of the season.

p.s: Here are last year's predictions, just for reference.

Here are some of my 'warm up' predictions....

(1) Gutierrez will uncork atleast 25 bombs this season.

(2) 'The Adam Miller Show' gets back on track in the minors, resulting in a July callup and a move to the 'pen.

(3) Asdrubal develops more power than people expect of him (0.450 SLG or higher in the second half).

(4) Lee rebounds (4.40 ERA), giving the Indians a solid season.

* - Long term, I see Asdrubal as a 15-20HR SS with excellent on-base skills.

Construct your 25-man Roster!

crazymoloh — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 18:09:17 -0000

One of my pet peeves with Indians management is their tendency to certainty of veteran mediocrity to the uncertainty of promising youngsters. Then again, I don't have to worry about options, contracts and the fiscal implications of a down seasons. Having watched a spring games, I think I can make a few 'gut' calls and am going to take a stab at constructing the Indians' 25 roster. I have tempered by irrational exuberance with young players in favor of contract realities. Here's what I have....

Roster:

C Matrinez
C Shoppach

1B Garko
2B Cabrera
SS Peralta
3B Blake
2B Carroll
IF <one of the players received in Marte/Michaels trade>

OF Dellucci
OF Francisco
OF Sizemore
OF Gutierrez

SP Sabathia
SP Carmona
SP Westbrook
SP Byrd
SP Lee

RP Borowski
RP Betancourt
RP Perez
RP Kobayashi
RP Lewis
RP Mastny
RP Mujica
RP Miller

(scratch Miller, forgot about Hafner)

- So nothing really adventurous here. Marte is done. That swing of his too high maintenance and takes a while to uncork. I have seen no adjustments from him, nor any desire to let the ball get deep and hammer it the other way.

- I don't understand the value or purpose of Michaels. I get that Francisco's platoon split is really an anti-platoon split, but surely he can replicate Michaels' overall contribution (defense+offense). No?

- Fultz is beyond useless to me. But apparently we NEED two lefties in the 'pen. How many times last season did we see Fultz called in to get ONE lefty out and end up walking the guy? The numbers actually say that he wasn't THAT bad. 14 of 45 inherited runners scored. That isn't abysmal, but I just have an irrational dislike of Fultz.

Future Moves:

- Trade Peralta (or move him to 3rd). Its not that I don't like Peralta, but I'm really impressed with Barfield's adjustments. He keeps his hands lower now, giving him a little more time before he has to react. His K numbers in spring aren't great, but I like what I see from AB to AB. Unlike Marte who isn't striking out because he's popping up junk pitches early in the count, Barfield is actually making pitchers work. I'd put Barfield in AAA to start the season. Once it becomes clear that Asdrubal is a bonafide talent, move him to SS and call up Barfield. Let him backup to start out. But when he starts to look legit, trade Peralta or move him to third. The infield defense improves and the team will have SOME speed.

- Trade Lee when Laffey and Sowers start to look like competent replacements.

- Option one of the relievers to make room for Choo when he comes off the DL.

What's your 25-man roster?