Sort of pointless two days before, but I'm in the frenzy thinking about football. Unlike BBI I have not found a way to inhabit the body of Jerry Reese. However, I have been meditating to clear my mind to attune myself to the Earth's natural energy currents which carrry the secrets of the perfect draft. Based upon past experience, I anticipate that none of these picks will be right. When considering who would be available at the Giants picks', I looked at 3-4 different draft boards and only took players that had a good chance of being available. So the falling BPA is not affecting these picks.

1 - Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina - A preseason Top 10 pick, so VALUE. Powerful WR. Not fast like Manningham, but fills his role as an outside WR. And when I compare the 2011 Giants to the 2010 Giants, I see the ball being thrown outside to avoid those tipped INTs. Backshoulders, come back routes, corners; that is what Jeffery is going to run. Box out the corners and extend the arms. The middle will be left for Cruz and Jernigan.

Alternatives - Doug Martin, RB, Boise State is the ideal Giants RB. But he's not a superstar, which the Giants are looking for in Round 1. Amini Silatolu, G, Midwestern State, is the ideal Giants guard. Size, athletic, moves well. Not far from where they drafted Snee. But there is better positional value available. Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech is a 6-4 athletic freak that should be gone, I'd draft him over Jeffery.

2 - Casey Hayward, CB, Vanderbilt - He may not be 6 feet tall, but he's 5-11 and change. He also does not have a great 40-yard dash. But every other box is checked. The top 20-yard shuttle. One of the top 3-cone times. So no long speed, but short area quickness and change-of-direction speed. Intelligent. Highly successful in actual coverage of the top WRs in the SEC. The comment I keep seeing on him is "Ideal CB for zone". He's our future nickel CB. Same round as Webster and Thomas. And we're only keeping one of those guys next year.

Alternatives - Tyrone Crawford, DE, Boise State - Height-weight-speed measurables. Arm length. Plays with a lot of hustle, but is raw. The guy you pick if you want JPP for the left side. Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson would be a great fit on the team, but I don't think he lasts to our spot.

3 - Robert Turbin, RB, Utah State - Short but well-built powerful RB that can run between the tackles and handle the load of a primary ballcarrier. Largest arms for a RB that I've ever seen. Surprised everyone with his athleticism at the combine. Of all of my picks, this is the one I am most worried about losing to an earlier team.

Alternatives - Cyrus Gray, RB, Texas A&M was in for a visit, but I think Turbin fits our scheme better. Michael Egnew, TE, Missouri has the size and athleticism, but I think he goes earlier in the third. Brandon Hardin, S, Oregon State has great size and measurables, 6-3 215 but ran under 4.45 and played CB in college, but again would not be surprised if he is already gone.

4 - Justin Bethel, S/CB, Presbyterian - A college CB, and at only 6-0 200 not our ideal size for safety. Similar to Hayward in running times, which makes him fast for a safety. But a more physical player. Leg power shown in jumping measurements. The all-time conference leader in career tackles - as a CB. Ball skills. Long arms - 9 career blocked kicks. Intelligent. Fits the Rolle flexible CB/S role well as the big nickel/TE cover guy.

4 - Lucas Nix, G/T, Pittsburgh - It was really hard finding a player I liked for this pick. This is the best player here that makes some sort of sense for the team. At 6-5 317 has the size we like. Played a variety of positions in college, but projects as a guard in the pros. Good pass blocker at the position - good enough to have done the Diehl and played as an injury replacement at LT. In fact he projects very close to Diehl coming out of college. Thereby making Diehl expendable in 2013.

Alternatives - If we don't get a RB earlier, here we can get some good inside runners in Vick Ballard, RB, Mississippi State, Tauren Poole, RB, Tennessee, maybe even Terence Ganaway, RB, Baylor. If Audie Cole, LB, North Carolina State slips this far he could be our future SAM. A lot of good WR talent should be left. I like DeVier Posey, WR, Ohio State.

6 - Adrien Robinson, TE, Cincinnati - This year's Jacquian Williams. We have future questions at the position, and we have the roster spot to develop a raw talent. 6-4 264 fits the bill. Maybe this guy is our next Boss, just faster and more athletic. Better place to take a risk than with the TEs getting 3rd-4th round grades.

7 - Mike Ryan, T, Connecticut - Might not be a roster spot for him this year. But he is a tackle that can play both sides of the line, hard to find this late in the draft. 6-5 1/2 327 with good power. Practice squad for a year.

I wanted to get this out before free agency changed everything, but it looks like I am running a little late. So of course this is not updated for anything happening today. I also left my Rams-Washington trade in there to show what I was thinking. Mostly this will show where I have player values. I'm really confused on KC because Crennel is collecting an interesting mix of coaches. I have Riley Rieff in the 2nd. Jeff Allen there as well. I think QBs will be interesting. Not many starters retiring soon, I think there are few slots for the college guys to compete for.

1st Round

1	IND	Andrew Luck, QB	Duh
2	STL - WAS	Robert Griffin III, QB	Traded for 2012 1,2,5 and 2013 1,4. Redskins have cap room for free agents [NOT ANY MORE] and management has to show results soon, they outbid other teams.
3	MIN	Matt Kalil, LT	Duh #2
4	CLE	Chris Claiborne, CB	Two shutdown CBs. Awesome.
5	TB	Trent Richardson, RB	Smart, explosive player, used to sharing carries.
6	WAS - STL	Justin Blackmon, WR	Toss up with Floyd.
7	JAC	Melvin Ingram, DE/DT	Floyd a character concern, Ingram versatile and my top rusher on board.
8	MIA	Ryan Tannehill, QB	A surprise like Locker last year, but Miami needs a franchise QB and the physical skills are there. Maybe Peyton helps develop him.
9	CAR	Malcolm Floyd, WR	Not a need, but the best player on the board.
10	BUF - CLE	Brock Osweiler, QB	Traded for 2012 1,2,4. Love the physical skills, like last year desire for QBs causes teams to grab them early, Buffalo wants out, afraid of picking another Maybin. KC and Seattle jumped.
11	KC	Dontari Poe, NT	Don't ignore tape, unless a player has elite physical tools to train. Poe is that player, and Crennel knows his d-linemen.
12	SEA	Quentin Coples, DE/DT	Always had him fitting with Seattle because of the way they rotate players. I can see him being used like Tuck, inside on passing downs.
13	ARI	Jonathan Martin, LT	Arizona fans are so happy, they ignore the rest of the draft.
14	DAL	Dre Kirkpatrick, CB	A BPA and need pick, no way they can let him slip past.
15	PHI	Luke Kuechly, MLB	Hate this overdone pick, but the combine confirmed it.
16	NYJ	Courtney Upshaw, OLB	Ready to play right away, experienced OLB. Not athletic? How many points did LSU score?
17	CIN (OAK)	David DeCastro	Still think this is early for a guard, but Cincy has two picks in the 1st and a need there.
18	SD	Alshon Jeffrey, WR	The mold that AJ Smith likes at WR, fits even if VJax resigned.
19	CHI - SF	Kendall Wright, WR	Traded for 2012 1,2, 2013 5. The 40 will get faster. SF needs a weapon at WR and is afraid the teams in front of them will be taking all of the good ones.
20	TEN	Nick Perry, DE	Hard to separate the top DEs, speed/power combo goes first.
21	CIN	Janoris Jenkins, CB	Also looked at RB here, but Jenkins is an elite talent and I think is less of a risk than he at first appeared. Again, I think you can take more of a chance with two first round picks.
22	CLE (ATL) - BUF	Andre Branch, DE	Move down to take a rusher than can play either side, good run defender if the pass rush does not pan out.
23	DET	Cordy Glenn, G/T	This comes down to BPA more than anything, which the Lions have been following lately. Upgrade at guard, or maybe he kicks Cherilus inside or to the curb.
24	PIT	Donta Hightower, ILB	I can see them hoping for Glenn, or that Poe falls or Thompson justifies the pick. Or replacing Wallace. But this has always been a LB team, he complements Timmons well.
25	DEN	Stephon Gilmore, CB	I don't see Cox returning even with the acquittal. Gilmore is raw but can learn from Bailey. I could see Fox wanting a RB here as well, or a DT.
26	HOU	Stephen Hill, WR	They have put together a solid team and the only weakness, a serious one, is WR depth. A good running team keeps the defense honest by having a long ball threat. And Hill won't be a prima donna about targets.
27	NE (NO)	Whitney Mercilus, OLB	Carter filled in ably as the pass rusher last year, but he is old and the rest have not shown great talent.
28	GB	Fletcher Cox, DE	Losing Jenkins and Jolly have hurt, and there are a bunch of good DTs here, I like Cox the best.
29	BAL	Peter Konz, C	If he passes his medical tests he is good value here. He abuses defenders in run blocking. Can play LG if Grubbs walks.
30	SF - CHI - STL	Michael Brockers, DT	Traded for 2012 6. The raw talent has fallen, St. Louis makes a small jump to keep him from the Super Bowl teams.
31	NE	Kendall Reyes, DE	An impact player for the line, a player I have liked all year.
32	NYG	David Wilson, RB	Looking for an impact player at 32, I think Zach Brown also possible but was just not physical enough for this team.

2nd Round

33	STL-CHI	Mohamed Sanu, WR	They need a WR who can move the sticks.
34	IND	Brandon Thompson, DT	One of my favorite players, a 1-tech DT or NT.
35	MIN	Zach Brown, WLB	Some good DBs here but Brown a unique talent .
36	TB	Chase Minnifield, CB	It has to be a corner here.
37	CLE - BUF	Alfonzo Dennard, CB	People are forgetting all of his good tape.
38	JAC	Riley Reiff, RT	Short arms, now I understand the waist bending. Tony Pauline says some teams are relabeling him as a guard, but his feet are too good.
39	WAS - STL	Michael Adams, T	Probably a RT, a poor combine but the talent is there. And it saves $8 million a year.
40	CAR	Devon Still, DT	I'd be patient on McClain and Fua, but most will see him as a BPA pick here.
41	BUF	Vincent Curry, DE	Doubling up at DE. Poor 40? How far away is the QB? Look at the 3-cone.
42	MIA	Kelechi Osemele, RT	Peyton's not coming if Colombo is the RT, and Colombo was an upgrade.
43	SEA	Nick Foles, QB	I like him. His coach was awful (and hence now unemployed). There is real talent in that arm.
44	KC	Lamar Miller, RB	Great value, and Charles may not be 100%.
45	DAL	Alameda Ta'amu, NT/DE	Jerry goes for the big potential impact player, altthough the safeties are tempting.
46	PHI	Doug Martin, RB	Brown failed as the #2 back, Martin is a good blocker and can run between the tackles.
47	NYJ	Marvin McNutt, WR	They need to support Sanchez, McNutt is underrated, he made the big catches in college. Need for offense trumps safety need.
48	NE (OAK)	Mark Barron, S	Belichick knows exactly how and what Barron has been taught.
49	SD	Andrew Datko, T	They can play him on the right, or on the left if McNeill cannot get healthy.
50	CHI	Kevin Zeitler, G	Regime change on the offense, time to stop making do with moving guys around.
51	PHI (ARI)	Jayron Hosley, CB	They have always liked quick CBs, if Samuel goes this year or next Hosley can compete to start.
52	TEN	Michael Brewster, C	A real smart, hardworking lineman for Munchak.
53	CIN	Harrison Smith, S	Great value here, Bengals need to push out some of their safety reclamation projects.
54	DET	Markelle Martin, S	Another BPA that will indirectly improve the CB play.
55	ATL	Coby Fleener, TE	With a shortage of picks I am looking at needs more, this is where the value is at a need position.
56	PIT	Amini Silatolu, G	Need line help but no left tackles here, this guy reminds me of a younger Kemoeatu
57	DEN	Jared Crick, DT	They get their DT now, a guy I loved last year, strength and hustle, gets into the backfield.
58	HOU	Jeff Allen, G	Fell in love with this guy at the Senior Bowl practices as a guard, Texans will have trouble keeping all of their interior OL with their success.
59	NO	Chandler Jones, RDE	Spags has seen the impact of physically gifted DEs, Smith is making $1 million per sack, poor use of money.
60	GB	Shea McClellin, OLB	In order to get rid of the embarassing "discount double-check", the Pack starts an "Are you jellin' with McClellin" ad campaign.
61	BAL	Ronnell Lewis, OLB	A value pick if Johnson is not resigned or they just want youth at the position.
62	SF - CHI	Dwayne Allen, TE	Tice will give his tackles blocking help.
63	NE - BUF	Lavonte David, WLB	Traded for 2012 3,4. Buffalo has extra picks, trades up over some WILL-needy teams to get a top talent and a need for the transition to 4-3.
64	NYG	Casey Heyward, CB	Good size, good college history, not a burner but great times in some of the other drills.

3rd Round

65	IND	Orson Charles, TE	I made this pick before the DUI and Pro Day, and before Clark was released. Similar type player to Clark, Luck used to throwing to TEs. Considered WR as well here.
66	STL	Jerel Worthy, DT	Already went DT but great potential here, and they could use two.
67	MIN	Marvin Jones, WR	Atlanta traded up for Julio Jones because of Michael Jenkins. I could also see DBs here again.
68	CLE	Chris Polk, RB	Every team needs a good RB.
69	TB	Mychal Kendricks, MLB	Schiano likes speed on defense, Foster moves to SAM.
70	WAS	Bobbie Massie, RT	Need to protect that huge investment.
71	JAC	A. J. Jenkins, WR	An under-the-radar Kendall Wright type, dangerous everywhere on the field.
72	BUF - NE	Ben Jones, C	Completes the overhaul of the OL.
73	MIA	Tank Carder, WLB	Proved his athleticism at the combine.
74	CHI (CAR)	Brandon Boykin, CB	Good value here, Lovie has no fear of smaller CBs.
75	KC	Brandon Weeden, QB	At this point KC has all the impact positions except QB. He falls because of his age and a lack of QB need. They could still make a move for a QB high next year (like the Panthers).
76	SEA	Isaiah Pead, RB	A speed back to complement Lynch's hard running style.
77	PHI	Michael Martin, DT	Philly loves to draft DTs, this guy fits their mold.
78	NYJ	Brandon Mosley, RT	Ducasse will supposedly be competing for this job, but call me a skeptic based upon his lack of playing time so far. Mosley played the left side against Branch and did very well.
79	OAK	Lost for supplemental pick	The last Al Davis "but he can run" pick.
80	SD	Bruce Irvin, OLB	Will not be pressured to start right away, which is what he needs.
81	CHI	Cyrus Gray, RB	They need a backup plan for Forte.
82	ARI	Tommy Streeter, WR	Tall, deep threat to bring some safety attention away from Fitz.
83	DAL	Philip Blake, C	They have a bunch of late rounders in the middle but need a solid player to anchor the line.
84	TEN	Josh Robinson, CB	Finnegan may be gone and it's easy to like this guy's numbers.
85	CIN	LaMichael James, RB	Very different runner from Benson.
86	ATL	Cam Johnson, RDE	There seems little interest in resigning Abraham and Sidbury does not seem to be a favorite. Johnson is very athletic but inconsistent so far.
87	DET	Jairus Wright, WR	I almost put him in the 2nd round. As Young improves Burleson is in line to become the most expensive #3 WR in football, I'd rather give that money to Avril..
88	PIT	Josh Chapman, NT	They are filling the need, replacing Hampton with a cheaper model.
89	DEN	Robert Turbin, RB	The classic strong inside runner a defensive coach wants on his team.
90	HOU	Joe Adams, WR	The opposite skill set of Hill, giving another look for the offense, and don't like any players at need positions here.
91	NO	Brendan Washington, G	Nicks appears unlikely to be resigned.
92	GB	Dwight Bentley, CB	CB depth play fell off this year.
93	BAL	James Brown, LT	Ravens have gone for smaller OL before, and being short with long arms has to be good for blocking the Steelers' OLBs.
94	SF	Derek Wolfe, DE	With SF locking up their free agents, they can pick a BPA at a strong position needing depth.
95	NE	Reuben Randle, WR	Pats need to open up the underneath with a deep threat.
96	NYG	Tyrone Crawford, DE	Not what I expected to do. The prototypical Giants DE, size, short-area quickness, hustle. He somehow slipped to the end of the 4th before I decided they would not let him past here.

4th Round

97	STL	Nigel Bradham, LB	The size and athleticism to play WILL or SAM, would be higher if that translated better to field performance.
98	IND	Ryan Broyles, WR	Hard to believe he fell this far, but there are a lot of choices at WR.
99	MIN	Justin Bethel, CB	Finally got a DB in, great movement skills and good size.
100	PHI (TB)	Kirk Cousins, QB	Great value here, need a healthy backup for Vick with his many minor injuries. I'd have him higher but there is no team left that needs a starter in 2012.
101	CLE - BUF	Christopher Givens, WR	A replacement for Parrish who was never able to turn speed into production.
102	JAC	Brian Quick, WR	Had to start going small school, a different type of WR than Jenkins (and Thomas), large target.
103	WAS	Shaun Prater, CB	Good quickness, fills a need for CB depth.
104	MIA	Brandon Taylor, FS	Finally someone with the athletic ability to play free safety instead of the many strong safeties tried there.
105	CAR	Jamell Fleming, CB	I have him lower than most, maybe I watched the wrong games.
106	BUF - NE	Jonathan Massaquoi, OLB	The second OLB for NE. Undersized for their standards, but maybe Bill tries something new. Cannon was different.
107	SEA	Sean Spence, WLB	I had been reading about Hill's personal problems even before the latest charges. Spence is a great player, but size could be an issue. Interesting mix of large and small on Seattle's defense already.
108	KC	Mitchell Schwartz, RT	This need has been ignored for awhile now, I did not consider anything else here.
109	NYJ	Trumaine Johnson, FS	Fell a bit for being a CB/S tweener, Jets need coverage skills at safety.
110	WAS (OAK)	Bobby Wagner, ILB	Fletcher will retire at 50.
111	SD	Billy Winn, DE	Looks good in games, but showed no athleticism at the Senior Bowl or combine. But a similar skill set to Castillo.
112	CHI	Jake Bequette, LDE	Tremendous athleticism for his build.
113	ARI	Zebrie Sanders, T	Long arms and decent feet, but no power. Worth a try here for a team with no better options.
114	DAL	Chris Rainey, WR/RB/RS	Pure speed, a different type of weapon for the offense.
115	PHI	Keenan Robinson, LB	Could be a SAM, or large WILL in place of Rolle on some downs.
116	TEN	George Iloka, SS/WLB	He works here because Tennessee could go younger at either spot.
117	CIN	Josh Norman, CB	A bigger CB to contrast Jenkins, depth was still needed.
118	DET	Matthew McCants, LT	Has the athleticism but needs coaching, and to get stronger.
119	CLE (ATL)	Matthew Reynolds, G/RT	Good pass blocker.
120	PIT	Dwight Jones, WR	A good spot to take a chance on a player with high upside, especially since he will be far down the depth chart to start.
121	DEN	Lucas Nix, G/RT	The change in offensive philosophy is trouble for small fries like Beadles and Hochstein, and the latter does not have age on his side. Could also kick Franklin inside.
122	HOU	Kheeston Randall, DE	Looking at a BPA here, a run-stuffer than can take some snaps from Smith.
123	NO	Lardarius Green, WR/TE	He's a TE by label only, really more of a big WR that can run.
124	GB	Anthony Allen, S	Really like his tape. Collins has the serious injury and Peprah was a big downgrade.
125	BUF (BAL)	Michael Egnew, TE	Chandler had a lot of TDs last year but is not as good as the hype. Egnew is athletic with a good frame, just needs to learn the pro position.
126	SF	Brandon Brooks, G	Powerful and athletic, SF likes them big. I felt the next best RT was a reach here.
127	NE	Nick Toon, WR	Contrasting the raw athleticism of Randle with the possession WR Toon.
128	NYG	DeVier Posey, WR	Size and surprising speed to replace Manningham, and decent college production given the QB situations.

Since a few people have mentioned this post lately, I decided to get around to posting it here. I originally posted it on Mocking the Draft earlier than expected when too many mocks over there annoyed me. I knew not to post draft discussions on here until the season was over. My main goal in putting this together was to show that the Giants have a well-developed drafting strategy and that the advice Giants fans were giving others was backed up by some factual history.

I decided to do an in-depth analysis of the Giants' draft history to back up my statements. I went back over the past two decades, with picks grouped into 1992-2001 or 2002-2011. This may seem like too long of a time to be relevant. But there have been only three GMs and four head coaches in that time. The GMs were hired from within, and three of the head coaches were assistants under Parcells in the 1980's. So the thought process has not varied greatly (although we did start the 90's with a 3-4 defense). Since the core staff has remained the same, I also think that it is important to see what mistakes were made in the past that may have affected recent drafts.

Here is the Giants draft history chart. The first row for each position is 2002-2011, the second row is 1992-2001. The column headings are the draft round. I added notes at the end of the row; comments generally are in comparison to the other decade. I do not list all of the players here since that would be too much. If you want to see the actual picks, I would suggest the Giants draft history page at nfl.com.

		Number of Players Picked by Draft Round
Position	Decade	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th-7th		Comments
WR	02-11	1	3	3		5		College production = more success
	92-01	2	2	2		1		Height + speed = failures
TE	02-11	1		2		1		Strong + athletic = better results
	92-01	1		2				Big but not athletic = poor results
RB	02-11				2	2		Better results
	92-01	2	2	1	1			Many big guys, failures
T	02-11		1	1	2	1		Performance related to draft spot
	92-01	1	1	1		2		Performance related to draft spot
G/C	02-11		1			4		One high pick all-pro
	92-01				2	3
DE	02-11	2	1	1		2		Size & athleticism
	92-01	1	1		2	3
DT	02-11	1	2	1	1			Good results but for the 1st
	92-01		1		1	3		Not given positional value
LB	02-11		1	1	4	7		Special teams players
	92-01			1	3	5		Special teams players
CB	02-11	2	2		1	4		6'0"+ players
	92-01	1	3	1		5
S	02-11	1				4		High when need great
	92-01	1		1		2		High when need great

Positional Value

A few things jump out from this chart. Linebackers and interior OL are continually picked low. Wide receivers, cornerbacks, and defensive ends, the "skill" or "impact" players, are given high and numerous picks. I would say that the TE picks would be higher than league average. This shows the Giants value certain positions more than others. People are constantly commenting on how the Giants linebackers could be better. This has been true for the entire decade. THE LINEBACKERS ARE THEIR WEAKEST POSITION BECAUSE THEY PLANNED IT THAT WAY. The Giants would rather improve an already strong position that they value rather than a weak position that they do not value.

Linebackers

The Giants have not favored drafting college linebackers to develop as pro linebackers. The one 2nd round LB pick had a 1st round grade on their board - a BPA pick in a year they had two 2nd rounders. And the damn Rams beat us to Laurinaitis. They have often sought free agents for MLB - Mike Barrow, Mike Brooks, Antonio Pierce. They have drafted college DL for the LB position - Ryan Phillips, Corey Widmer, Reggie Torbor, Clint Sintim (the 2nd rounder), Adrian Tracy. Kiwanuka is playing SAM right now.

BPA

The Giants are also known as a team that takes the best player available. That does not mean that they will ignore needs. It means that they will surprise people with an unexpected pick in the top rounds of the draft. Prince Amukamara and Marvin Austin were not on the high need board last year. Jason Pierre-Paul, Matthias Kiwanuka, and even Justin Tuck were surprises at DE. Kerry Collins was doing fine at QB when they picked Manning. But they were picking at #4, so they felt they had to grab a franchise QB.

"The idea philosophically (is) take the best player who is on the board. That way you are not doing any reaching, you are not trying to make somebody up who doesn't belong there. And I think we have always done that. If you just take the first two picks in the draft (Prince Amukamara and Marvin Austin), we have two guys (who belong in) in the first round. And I think that speaks highly of itself. Do you solve all of your problems? Of course not." - Tom Coughlin, from "Giants add Speed and Size", 4/30/11, www.giants.com

"Size and Speed"

This is something that is often mentioned by Giants fans. The reason why is that these words have come directly out of Jerry Reese's mouth on a frequent basis. I am including a few relevant quotes and a comment to illustrate my point:

"We took a flyer on the guy [Da'rell Scott] because he is big and fast," Reese said. "He is fast, he had a terrific sophomore season. His production fell off, but late in the draft this is what you look for. You look for guys with some redeeming qualities. This guy is big and fast." - from "Giants Add Speed and Size", 4/30/2011, www.giants.com

Here is Jerry Reese on the 2006 draft, from "Jerry Reese Addresses the Draft", by Ken Palmer, 5/23/2006, www.nyg.scout .com:

"He [Gerris Wilkinson] was attractive to us because he was very smart, he has size and speed."

"He [Guy Whimper] just out-athletes everybody right now. He is big, he has long arms, he is fast."

"Gerrick [McPhearson] has good size and speed"

Quick, use three words to describe an offensive lineman:

"James Brewer, Indiana - height, weight, speed, offensive tackle. A bit of a late bloomer, but we think he has a tremendous upside." - "GM Reese on OT James Brewer", 4/30/2011, www.giants.com

And other professionals notice it too:

""The Giants bring a system that really wants to have big guys that are fast," said former NFL general manager Mike Lombardi, an analyst for the NFL Network." - from "Giants vs. Eagles: Eli Manning, Giants aim to end six-game slide against rivals", The Star-Ledger, by Zach Berman, 9/25/2011

A look at the draft picks shows the type of favored player. Jason Pierre-Paul is a great example - one year of major college ball, but look at those backflips and wingspan. In the 2011 draft, they selected Da'rell Scott, Jacquian Williams, Prince Amukamara, and Marvin Austin, all whom turned in great 40-yard dash times for their positions, and none are small for their position. Austin put up the second best combine bench number for DT. James Brewer had a great 40 times for a large 6'8" man, the players his size that beat him were 1st and 2nd round picks. In 2010, they drafted Mitch Petrus (top bench in combine) and Linval Joseph (second-best combine bench at DT). Phillip Dillard had the third-best 40 time at the combine for MLBs/ILBs. In 2009, the speedy Travis Beckum placed first in the bench press among TEs (yeah, I could not believe this either). Probably would have been first in the 40 if he had run. William Beatty finished fifth in the 40 and sixth in the bench among tackles.

Learning From Mistakes / Adapting Over Time

The draft position of RBs and DTs flipped between decades. Poor RB draft results in the 1990's may be partially to blame. In the 1990's and early 2000's they favored WRs that were tall and fast. None of them became good players. In recent years it has been mixed. There have been small speedy guys like Sinorice Moss and Jerel Jernigan, to larger players like Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden, to route runners with no distinguishing physical traits or abilities like Steve Smith and Victor Cruz (undrafted). Except for Moss, picked several years ago, all of them had college production. The good college producers in the 1990's (Amani Toomer and Ike Hilliard) had the greatest success as well.

Thinking Ahead

Many of the comments and analysis done on the mock drafts on this site and everywhere else are based upon talent levels at various positions and age. Sometimes oversized contracts or known free agency situations are considered. But it is rare to attempt to analyze needs and free agency for future years. The Giants do that in their drafts. Prince Amukamara was seen as a pure BPA pick but the Giants #2 and #3 CBs are free agents now. James Brewer was drafted last year because Kareem McKenzie completed the last year of his contract. Linval Joseph was a 2nd rounder drafted a year before Barry Cofield hit free agency. The Giants like to slowly develop players. The last Giants rookie to start more than half of the games in his rookie season was Aaron Ross in 2007. The last to win a starting job out of training camp was Barry Cofield in 2006.

Conference Favoritism?

In the 1990's the Giants were well known as a Big 10 team. Looking at the first four rounds, the Giants drafted players from the Big 10 twice as much as any other conference. In the last 10 years, that has changed. The Giants have drafted players from the ACC twice as much as any other conference. Another trend that has emerged is a willingness to spend high picks on smaller school players. In the last 10 years, they have picked players from minor conferences in the first four rounds twice as much as the next highest major conference after the ACC. The way scouting has progressed over time, this may be true of the NFL as a whole.

Character

There has been a lot of talk here in past years about the Giants being a "character" team. While I think that is true, it is not necessarily in relation to the draft. The Giants have been willing to take chances on some players with minor (stupid things college kids do) infractions that have fallen in the draft past the slot their talent deserves. Marvin Austin, Mario Manningham, and Ahmad Bradshaw fit this category. As a result I would believe that all of the Ohio State players are on their board. I think the character reputation comes more from the top of their organization. The owners display a lot of class. The same for the management and coaching staffs. There are no negative comments, there is no gossip. They like to promote people from within the organization. They are generally patient with their staff. The players are allowed more freedom to act as they choose. However, the one thing I would add is that the Giants have shown an interest in drafting and signing players from good academic schools. They have two Ivy Leaguers right now, tops in the NFL, and have had players from Duke, Northwestern, William & Mary, etc. on the roster.

How This Applies to the 2012 Draft

The Giants have needs. Our starting MLB missed last season with an ACL tear and Kiwanuka may eventually be moved back to DE. But the idea that they would draft two LBs early is completely contrary to their draft history and philosophy. More important to the draft is that their 3rd WR and two important CBs are unrestricted free agents. The Giants have a bunch of late-round draft picks and undrafted players at linebacker that show promise. They will sooner roll the dice on one of them being successful than use an early pick on a linebacker instead of a player at a position that has a greater influence on the outcome of a game.

So in the first 2-3 rounds, instead of asking "What are the Giants needs", you should be asking "What kind of player fits the Giants mold? Who has size and speed? Which player is a potential game changer?"

This post not only looks at the upcoming season's roster and salary cap issues, but also the two following seasons as well. I was particularly interested in reviewing 2013 because so many of our key players are free agents then. Also, the moves made this year affect future years. But why three? It's because I'm a religious man. Does not the holy book say "Three shall be the number thou shalt count, and the number of the counting shall be three."

For easier review and discussion below I divided up the post into sections by year. For each year I list a 53-man roster, which may be a player name or a generic identifier like "5th CB", because it does not matter who the particular player is, just that there is a slot for someone who should be making a minimum salary. I lumped most of the LBs into piles that I'll let the coaches sort out, I'll stick to predicting the approximate cap cost, so don't read anything into who is where. After the player name is an identification if they are a free agent and the specific type. In these first two columns, parentheses indicate that the player or his original free agency status has been replaced. The next column is a brief description of the action in that player slot for the offseason. This covers a variety and combination of actions such as cut, re-signed, reworked, drafted, new free agent. If a player is cut or contract reworked I will provide the old cap number that would have applied. Details on new contracts and drafted player names will appear separately below. The next column is their cap increase from the previous season as listed in their contract as of today. I wanted to show some of the big jumps that affect our cap number; this column becomes less relevant with time. The last column will be the cap number for that season. At the bottom of the roster I will add the roster cap number, the dead contract number (see next paragraph), an allowance for players on injured reserve (or more accurately, their replacements), and the cost of the practice squad to achieve a final cap number. This will be compared to the anticipated cap number, which right now on mostly consensus speculation will be 4% higher in 2012, meaning that NFL revenue increased by 8%. I used this same increase for 2013 and 2014.

Everyone understands the concept of salary. You do this work, you get this much money. But the key factor in salary cap number crunching is signing bonuses. Signing bonuses in the NFL are paid out in a particular year (typically all in the first year of a new contract), but are prorated to count against the salary cap equally throughout the length of a contract (except that the new CBA limits the prorating to five years). The player gets their money up front, and the team gets to lower their immediate cap number, because they can usually offer a very low salary in the first year since the signing bonus replaces salary. So for a 4-year contract for $24 million which includes a $8 million signing bonus, the salaries might be 1, 5, 5, 5 while the cap numbers would be 3, 7, 7, 7 and the actual cash paid out is 9, 5, 5, 5. The signing bonus also impacts releasing players during their contracts. If a player is cut before the end of their contract, and there is remaining signing bonus money that is to be counted against future salary caps, it all becomes counted against the current year's cap. This is called "dead" money. So signing bonuses can be a tactic that players use to become too expensive to be cut. Eli and Baas are in that situation now. Of course, if a player thinks he can get a better contract, he may want a lower signing bonus number and a higher salary number to increase the chance he is let go.

But here are the cap hits from potential player cuts over the next few years:

	2012	2013	2014
	(in millions of dollars)
Baas	6.8	5.1	3.4
Boley	2.8	1.4
Canty	4.2	2.8	1.4
Diehl	1	0.5
Jacobs	2
Rolle	6	4	2
Snee	4.5	2.25
Tuck	3.6	1.8
Umenyiora	0.75
Webster	4.5	1.75

Roster or workout bonuses are a different story that does not really affect my cap calculations. They are all counted in the year paid. The general concept is that by forcing a team to make an early payout, which will then count against the cap, you are increasing the likelihood that the team will keep the player and pay the remainder of his salary due (otherwise they lose their down payment for nothing) or you are forcing them to cut the player early, giving them the best chance for finding a new team. If they make the payment but later cut him, the player gets to keep the roster bonus to help make up for missing time in free agency.

So here's the main event:

	2012
Player/Slot	Status	Action	Increase	Cap Number
	(all numbers in millions of dollars)
Manning			2.25	15.2
Carr	UFA	re-sign		1.25
Bradshaw			1.75	4.5
Jacobs		cut - Draft 4th - due $7	2	0.685
Ware				1
Scott				0.5
Hynoski				0.5
Nicks				2
Cruz				0.5
Manningham	UFA	Draft 3rd	-1.5	0.5
Barden				0.75
Jernigan				0.6
Thomas/Hixon/6th WR	UFA	minimum contract		0.675
Ballard	ERFA	IR - Draft 1st		1.75
Pascoe	RFA	re-sign		1.25
Beckum		IR - Hopkins from PS		0.375
Beatty				0.75
McKenzie	UFA	Ugoh	-6	0.675
Brewer				0.465
Diehl		cut - Draft 6th - due $4.3		0.375
Snee			2.25	7.75
Petrus				0.5
Boothe			0.5	1.5
Baas			2.25	5
Umenyiora		cut - due $4.65 - LB spot	0.75	0.5
Tuck			1.25	7.5
Pierre-Paul			0.25	3.75
Tollefson	UFA	minimum or rookie FA		0.375
Trattou				0.5
Canty			0.5	7.67
Joseph				1
Austin				0.85
Bernard	UFA	re-sign		1.25
Goff	UFA	re-sign		1
Boley			0.5	5.65
Kiwanuka		rework - due $5.5	2.5	3.5
Williams				0.5
Jones/Blackburn				0.5
Sintim/Herzlich		cut Sintim - due $1.25		0.5
Paysinger/Tracy		1 LB gets Osi's slot		0.5
Webster			1.5	8.75
Thomas	UFA	re-sign		1
Ross	UFA	Draft 2nd	-1.5	0.685
Amukamara			-0.5	1.75
5th CB				0.565
Rolle			5.5	9
Phillips			0.25	2
Grant	UFA	Draft 5th		0.375
Sash				0.5
Martin/special teamer	UFA	re-sign		0.675
Weatherford	UFA	re-sign		1.5
Tynes				1.5
DeOssie				1.1
Roster Cap Number			14.5	113.995
Dead Contracts				4.15
IR Adjustment				5
Practice Squad				0.75
TEAM SALARY				123.895
Salary Cap				124

Cut: Jacobs, Diehl, Umenyiora

Not Re-signed: Manningham, McKenzie, Ross, Grant, role players not taking minimums

Re-signed: Carr (3 years $4.25 million), Pascoe (1 year $1.25 million), Bernard (2 years $2.5 million), Goff (3 years, $5.5 million - annual 1, 2.25, 2.25), TThomas (1 year $1 million), Weatherford (4 years $7.5 million, $2 million signing bonus), role players taking minimums

Reworked: Kiwanuka (5 years $40 million, $7.5 million signing bonus), starts this year

Drafted: 1st - Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson - Witten-type player, more agile than fast, blocker but not a pile pusher, good hands

2nd - Brandon Boykin, CB/RS, Georgia - Our new nickel CB, fast with good return skills, small but tough, good tackler

3rd - A.J. Jenkins, WR, Illinois - Speed WR fills Manningham's role

4th - Vick Ballard, RB, Mississippi State - Between the tackles strong runner

5th - Neiko Thorpe, FS, Auburn - Tall CB converted to FS last year

6th - Blake DeChristopher, G/T, Virginia Tech - power run blocker that can pull, college RT but NFL guard

This is not going to be popular. But as you can see we have large increases to the cap numbers of players under contract. And the new CBA lowered the salary cap from the 2009 level. So teams near the top need to shed money. There is no space for additions, especially because I am saving cap room for 2013. Kiwanuka gets extended because it saves cap room this year, and the early signing bonus allows us to get a lower overall price. He will be playing more DE. Osi and Diehl are gone simply because they are the cheapest to shed. Jacobs is not worth his salary. We don't have the cap room to be patient with Sintim, and he is a free agent next year anyway. Everyone loves Tolly, but if some team shows him a little money, it would be hard for us to match. There are certainly ways to move around a quarter million here, a quarter million there. But this should illustrate the seriousness of our situation.

The league and draft boards are filled with QBs, so Carr is never going to get a starting shot again. But you find a backup you like and pay him decent money or you wind up like Indy last year. Guarantee his contract to keep him around. Guarantee most of Weatherford's deal too to keep him. Goff starts out low so we can cut him if he fails. Pascoe needs to get a decent payday since he is the only experienced TE on the roster, although I am bringing over Hopkins from the practice squad. But the $1.25 million protects Pascoe because it would cost a team a 6th rounder to sign him away. Bernard could probably get less, or be let go for the savings. But he had some good snaps this year, so I kept him around with a little raise to keep him from wandering off.

Where Brewer was drafted in the 4th last year, you expect a starter at right tackle. So it's going to have to be him. We can't afford to keep Diehl around as an option, and is a draft pick this year going to start? Draft a right tackle in the 2nd, and Thomas' knee can't cut it, all of a sudden Rolle is back at nickel and Sash is starting. Trust in Reese that the less visible draft picks last year will perform. You don't have a choice. There will be competition for the starting CB, MLB, and LG jobs.

	2013
Player/Slot	Status	Action	Increase	Cap Number
	(all numbers in millions of dollars)
Manning			2.25	17.5
Carr				1.5
Bradshaw			0.75	5.25
(Jacobs)	(UFA)	replaced by 4th		0.85
Ware	UFA	low pick or UDFA	-1	0.375
Scott				0.55
Hynoski				0.5
Nicks			0.25	2.25
Cruz	RFA	re-sign		3
(Manningham)		replaced by 3rd		0.6
Barden	UFA	minimum or low pick		0.465
Jernigan				0.7
Thomas/Hixon/6th WR		minimum contract		0.675
(Ballard)	(RFA)	replaced by 1st		1.25
Pascoe	UFA	Draft 4th		0.4
Beckum	UFA	Bllrd/Psco/Hopk/Beck		1.75
Beatty	UFA	re-sign		4
(McKenzie) Ugoh				0.81
Brewer				0.55
(Diehl)		replaced by 6th- due $4.6		0.5
Snee		cut - Draft 2nd - due $8.75	1	0.75
Petrus				0.5
Boothe	UFA	re-sign		1.5
Baas			1.25	6.25
(Umenyiora)	(UFA)	Draft 1st		2
Tuck		reworked - due $8.3	0.8	5.8
Pierre-Paul			0.5	4.25
Tollefson		minimum, rookie FA, or LB		0.5
Trattou		or LB		0.5
Canty			0.25	8
Joseph				1
Austin			0.25	1
Bernard				1.25
Goff				2.25
Boley			0.25	6
Kiwanuka	(UFA)			9
Williams				0.55
Jones/Blackburn				0.55
Herzlich		or low draft pick		0.5
Paysinger/Tracy				0.55
Webster		reworked - due $9.25	0.5	4.75
Thomas		Draft 5th		0.4
(Ross)		replaced by 2nd		0.85
Amukamara			0.5	2.25
5th CB				0.675
Rolle		cut - Draft 3rd - due $9.25	0.25	0.6
Phillips	UFA	re-sign		3
(Grant)		replaced by 5th		0.465
Sash				0.55
Martin/special teamer		re-sign		0.675
Weatherford				2
Tynes	UFA	re-sign		1.5
DeOssie	UFA	re-sign		1.1
Roster Cap Number			7.8	113.49
Dead Contracts				6.25
IR Adjustment				6
Practice Squad				1
TEAM SALARY				126.74
Salary Cap				128

Cut: Snee, Rolle

Not Re-signed: Ware, more than one TE, role players not taking minimums

Re-signed: Cruz (4 years $28 million, $8 million signing bonus), someone at TE, Beatty (3 years $14 million, $3 million signing bonus), Boothe (2 years $3 million), Phillips (5 years $30 million, $10 million signing bonus), Tynes (3 years $4.5 million), DeOssie (3 years $3.3 million), role players taking minimums

Reworked: Tuck (2 years $10 million, $6 million signing bonus), Webster (3 years $13 million, $6 million signing bonus)

Drafted: 1st - William Gholston, DE, Michigan State - In a loaded pass rusher draft, a prototypical Giants DE falls to us - or Devin Taylor, DE, South Carolina

2nd - Chance Warmack, G, Alabama - The next Snee, agile and strong

3rd - Rashard Hall, S, Clemson - Good size, athletic

4th - Michael Williams, TE, Alabama - The best blocking TE in years, 6-6 270

I think this year will make people happier. We resigned all of our key guys. Let's hear some celebration. "Oh baby Reese, Reese got what we need..." Phillips is expensive but the safety talent out there is awful. Cruz probably gives us a small discount to stay near his family and play with Eli, and because he is a RFA. Beatty has not proven himself as a top tackle yet, I'm watching Joe Staley this offseason to get an idea of where Beatty's value lies. But money needs to be found for these guys. I fought long and hard with the numbers to keep Canty. Snee, Webster, and Tuck are all in the last and most expensive year of their deals. Snee was the one to go because his position can least justify the high salary. That leaves Boothe, Petrus, DeChristopher, and Warmack to fight it out for the two guard spots. Tuck will likely retire soon, as I can see him, like Strahan, recognizing when he is done. His new deal and Webster's were designed to pay them the same amount of cash this year, but extend them at lower salaries in future years to flatten out their cap numbers. Both are at the age where they have seen the last of increasing pay. Rolle is gone because it makes no sense to use 10% of your cap on the safety position. At this point he will likely be the highest-paid safety in the league. I'd rather keep KP over him.

There are some ways to free up more cap space. They could keep Christian Hopkins as the third TE and let the older TEs go; I put in a generous cap number. If Goff does not win the starting MLB job he can also be cut to save money. Also, Eli's annual raises over $2 million each year have to be renegotiated. It eats up half the cap increase. If he wants to keep his WRs, he's got to make the cap room available. Maybe he enables us to keep Snee for one more year. Or he antes up if our WRs get better offers.

Usually the Giants are drafting players before they are needed. But the new salary cap and our past free agent moves have limited our ability to do that. Snee and Rolle are being replaced by picks in this year's draft, although I do not necessarily think the draft picks start right away. There's a good pool of competition at guard, and at safety you have Sash, Thorpe (last year's fifth), and possibly even Chad Jones in the mix. Not ideal but something you have to do for a year. Even if they find a way to keep Snee I think they still draft Warmack, unless Petrus has proven himself, but he is a free agent next year and we cannot afford to give him a big raise if he does play very well.

	2014
Player/Slot	Status	Action	Increase	Cap Number
	(all numbers in millions of dollars)
Manning			2.1	19.6
Carr				1.5
Bradshaw			0.25	5.5
(Jacobs)		replaced by 4th		1
(Ware)		Draft 3rd		0.6
Scott				0.65
Hynoski				0.65
Nicks	UFA	re-sign		3
Cruz				8
(Manningham)		replaced by 3rd		0.75
Barden		minimum or low pick		0.55
Jernigan				0.8
Thomas/Hixon/6th WR		minimum contract		0.81
(Ballard)		replaced by 1st		1.75
Pascoe		replaced by 4th		0.5
Beckum		3rd TE		1.75
Beatty				4
(McKenzie) Ugoh				0.81
Brewer				0.65
(Diehl)	(UFA)	replaced by 6th		0.55
(Snee)	(UFA)	replaced by 2nd	1	1
Petrus	UFA	minimum or low pick		0.75
Boothe				1.5
Baas			0.5	6.75
(Umenyiora)		replaced by 1st		2
Tuck	(UFA)		-6.75	6
Pierre-Paul		reworked - due $4.5	0.25	6.325
Tollefson		rookie FA or LB		0.55
Trattou				0.65
Canty		cut - Draft 2nd - due $8.25	0.25	0.75
Joseph	UFA	re-signed		2.5
Austin			0.25	1.15
Bernard	UFA	re-signed		1.25
Goff				2.25
Boley	UFA	Draft 4th	-6	0.4
Kiwanuka				9.5
Williams				0.65
Jones/Blackburn				0.65
Herzlich		or low draft pick		0.5
Paysinger/Tracy				0.65
Webster	(UFA)			5
(Thomas)		replaced by 5th		0.5
(Ross)		replaced by 2nd		1
Amukamara			-0.25	2
5th CB		Draft 1st		2.25
Rolle		replaced by 3rd - due $9.25		0.7
Phillips				6.5
(Grant)		replaced by 5th		0.55
Sash				0.65
Martin/special teamer				0.675
Weatherford				2
Tynes				1.5
DeOssie				1.1
Roster Cap Number			-8.4	122.12
Dead Contracts				1.4
IR Adjustment				6
Practice Squad				1
TEAM SALARY				130.52
Salary Cap				132

Cut: Canty

Not Re-signed: Boley

Re-signed: Nicks (5 years $38 million, $10 million signing bonus), Bernard (1 year $1.25 million), Joseph (3 years $9 million) - not really sure on this last one, figured the cap number I gave could also cover a larger deal with signing bonus

Reworked: Pierre-Paul (5 years $55 million, $15 million signing bonus)

Drafted: 1st - CB - The future replacement for Webster

2nd - DT - The replacement for Canty

3rd - RB - The future replacement for Bradshaw

4th - LB - Lots of LB contracts expiring, could use a higher pick for once

Canty's run ends in the final year of his deal, not a huge surprise. Boley should be replaceable by someone in our stable of linebackers, although possibly we could work out a short deal to keep him for less money. The big key was securing our franchise players, Nicks and JPP. Nicks could probably get a little more money, but adding $500k a year does not affect my numbers. I resigned JPP a year early. I originally started working on a new contract him for him as a way to save money in 2014, but the end result paid him more. I kept it anyway. Starting him a year early allows us to get better contract terms. Possibly the contract gets renegotiated during the season, which would push off the cap hit until 2015.

The draft returns to the Reese of old, grabbing players before they are needed. I debated leaving a high pick open as an "emergency pick", assuming that one high draft pick from an earlier year was a bust. This could certainly still be done, as most of these picks could be pushed back a round or saved on a need basis for next year. But I felt it was more valuable to see where I would go if I could. You may notice that I have not been guessing at lower round players. This is because I decided to assume that none would be valuable starters for the franchise, and the picks would be used as needed to fill depth at certain positions such as OL, WR, and LB.

While I did not analyze 2015 in detail, it should be noted that there will be a lot of pressure to meet that salary cap since the new Nicks and JPP contracts will kick in full force. Coming off the books to help pay for those will be Bradshaw and Tuck, both of whom should be done based upon their injury history. Maybe we can keep Bradshaw around for cheap. You also have expiring contracts from the huge roster class from the 2011 draft. Amukamara, Austin, Brewer, JWilliams, and Hynoski are starters on my roster, and perhaps one or two of the other linebackers as well. Webster is the only potential cut that I see, although Baas will finally be cheap enough (in terms of dead money) to be a cut option. Eli will be a free agent in 2016, so I think that contract will have to be reworked if not done previously. At this point he may be the highest-paid player in football. He will probably have to shave about $5 million a year off his cap number to keep the team running strong.

A note on player contracts. They are difficult to predict with great accuracy with the new CBA rules still kicking in. The cap is in place, but the floor is not in full effect until 2013. Right now we will be seeing player dumping to get under the cap, which will gradually give way to larger signings to make the floor. The underlying fact, however, is the teams that have been willing to spend money can no longer spend it, and the teams that are cheapskates are unlikely to spend a dime more than they have to. So I do not see a great change in player salaries from where they are today. I think the really high contracts, except for QBs, disappear, since for the most part the big free agent signings have been busts. I see it being more likely that teams will cluster good players in the $5-$10 million range as I have done here.

Right now only a handful of WRs are making more than $9 million a season, guys like the two Johnsons, Fitzgerald, and Marshall. Greg Jennings is at the bottom of that list making $9 million even. This helps me think a number of around $8 million was reasonable for Nicks and Cruz. I think factors such as the two Super Bowl wins and playing with Eli give us a cushion where other teams would have to offer more than $1 million more a season to take them away. Cruz is also a local product with nearby family, and we could give him as low as $2.5 million in his RFA season to keep him, because I don't see teams giving up the money plus a first round pick to snatch him away. Also, several years of strong drafts at WR should continue to depress salaries at the position. In 2011 there was no action except for Sidney Rice, and that did not produce good results. We'll see what Manningham draws this year.

This whole scenario shows no major free agents signing with the team because of our lack of cap space. Sure, we could let one of our expensive free agents go and sign someone cheaper. But I think we will continue to search the bargain bin for players willing to take league minimum. We had a lot of success with our low-cost signings last year. Players seem to continually choose the Giants over other teams. With the second Super Bowl win under Eli under our belts, I think you will again see lots of interest from players looking to win a championship before they retire. So we may be able to fill some important holes with veterans willing to get paid less to win.

If you have any questions, let me know. I have all of the information in one large spreadsheet so that I can run various scenarios, also plan to keep this updated on a consistent basis into the future so I don't have to do all of this work again.

Warning - this is long. If you want to cheat and just get instructions on who to mock the Giants, you can skip to the end. This may be more appropriate on Big Blue View, but I know not to post draft discussions on there until the season is over. I just wanted to show that there is a reason for my comments on mocks.

On this site we rely upon the fans of other teams to give us insights into the personnel decisions of other teams. But what if we are all idiots? The Giants fans here (myself among them) frequently pontificate on the drafting strategies of our team. Especially since every mocker this year insists on giving us at least one linebacker. It's good to know that no one thinks we have any other holes.

I decided to do an in-depth analysis of the Giants' draft history to back up my statements. I went back over the past two decades, with picks grouped into 1992-2001 or 2002-2011. This may seem like too long of a time to be relevant. But there have been only three GMs and four head coaches in that time. The GMs were hired from within, and three of the head coaches were assistants under Parcells in the 1980's. So the thought process has not varied greatly (although we did start the 90's with a 3-4 defense). Since the core staff has remained the same, I also think that it is important to see what mistakes were made in the past that may have affected recent drafts.

Here is the Giants draft history chart. The first row for each position is 2002-2011, the second row is 1992-2001. The column headings are the draft round. I added notes at the end of the row; comments generally are in comparison to the other decade. I do not list all of the players here since that would be too much. If you want to see the actual picks, I would suggest the Giants draft history page at nfl.com.

		Number of Players Picked by Draft Round
Position	Decade	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th-7th		Comments
WR	02-11	1	3	3		5		College production = more success
	92-01	2	2	2		1		Height + speed = failures
TE	02-11	1		2		1		Strong + athletic = better results
	92-01	1		2				Big but not athletic = poor results
RB	02-11				2	2		Better results
	92-01	2	2	1	1			Many big guys, failures
T	02-11		1	1	2	1		Performance related to draft spot
	92-01	1	1	1		2		Performance related to draft spot
G/C	02-11		1			4		One high pick all-pro
	92-01				2	3
DE	02-11	2	1	1		2		Size & athleticism
	92-01	1	1		2	3
DT	02-11	1	2	1	1			Good results but for the 1st
	92-01		1		1	3		Not given positional value
LB	02-11		1	1	4	7		Special teams players
	92-01			1	3	5		Special teams players
CB	02-11	2	2		1	4		6'0"+ players
	92-01	1	3	1		5
S	02-11	1				4		High when need great
	92-01	1		1		2		High when need great

Positional Value

A few things jump out from this chart. Linebackers and interior OL are continually picked low. Wide receivers, cornerbacks, and defensive ends, the "skill" or "impact" players, are given high and numerous picks. I would say that the TE picks would be higher than league average. This shows the Giants value certain positions more than others. People are constantly commenting on how the Giants linebackers could be better. This has been true for the entire decade. THE LINEBACKERS ARE THEIR WEAKEST POSITION BECAUSE THEY PLANNED IT THAT WAY. The Giants would rather improve an already strong position that they value rather than a weak position that they do not value.

Linebackers

The Giants have not favored drafting college linebackers to develop as pro linebackers. The one 2nd round LB pick had a 1st round grade on their board - a BPA pick in a year they had two 2nd rounders. And the damn Rams beat us to Laurinaitis. They have often sought free agents for MLB - Mike Barrow, Mike Brooks, Antonio Pierce. They have drafted college DL for the LB position - Ryan Phillips, Corey Widmer, Reggie Torbor, Clint Sintim (the 2nd rounder), Adrian Tracy. Kiwanuka is playing SAM right now.

BPA

The Giants are also known as a team that takes the best player available. That does not mean that they will ignore needs. It means that they will surprise people with an unexpected pick in the top rounds of the draft. Prince Amukamara and Marvin Austin were not on the high need board last year. Jason Pierre-Paul, Matthias Kiwanuka, and even Justin Tuck were surprises at DE. Kerry Collins was doing fine at QB when they picked Manning. But they were picking at #4, so they felt they had to grab a franchise QB.

"The idea philosophically (is) take the best player who is on the board. That way you are not doing any reaching, you are not trying to make somebody up who doesn't belong there. And I think we have always done that. If you just take the first two picks in the draft (Prince Amukamara and Marvin Austin), we have two guys (who belong in) in the first round. And I think that speaks highly of itself. Do you solve all of your problems? Of course not." - Tom Coughlin, from "Giants add Speed and Size", 4/30/11, www.giants.com

"Size and Speed"

This is something that is often mentioned by Giants fans. The reason why is that these words have come directly out of Jerry Reese's mouth on a frequent basis. I am including a few relevant quotes and a comment to illustrate my point:

"We took a flyer on the guy [Da'rell Scott] because he is big and fast," Reese said. "He is fast, he had a terrific sophomore season. His production fell off, but late in the draft this is what you look for. You look for guys with some redeeming qualities. This guy is big and fast." - from "Giants Add Speed and Size", 4/30/2011, www.giants.com

Here is Jerry Reese on the 2006 draft, from "Jerry Reese Addresses the Draft", by Ken Palmer, 5/23/2006, www.nyg.scout .com:

"He [Gerris Wilkinson] was attractive to us because he was very smart, he has size and speed."

"He [Guy Whimper] just out-athletes everybody right now. He is big, he has long arms, he is fast."

"Gerrick [McPhearson] has good size and speed"

Quick, use three words to describe an offensive lineman:

"James Brewer, Indiana - height, weight, speed, offensive tackle. A bit of a late bloomer, but we think he has a tremendous upside." - "GM Reese on OT James Brewer", 4/30/2011, www.giants.com

And other professionals notice it too:

""The Giants bring a system that really wants to have big guys that are fast," said former NFL general manager Mike Lombardi, an analyst for the NFL Network." - from "Giants vs. Eagles: Eli Manning, Giants aim to end six-game slide against rivals", The Star-Ledger, by Zach Berman, 9/25/2011

A look at the draft picks shows the type of favored player. Jason Pierre-Paul is a great example - one year of major college ball, but look at those backflips and wingspan. In the 2011 draft, they selected Da'rell Scott, Jacquian Williams, Prince Amukamara, and Marvin Austin all whom turned in great 40-yard dash times for their positions, and none are undersized. Austin put up the second best combine bench number for DT. James Brewer had a great times for a large 6'8" man, the players his size that beat him were 1st and 2nd round picks. In 2010, they drafted Mitch Petrus (top bench in combine) and Linval Joseph (second-best combine bench at DT). Phillip Dillard had the third-best 40 time at the combine for MLBs/ILBs. In 2009, the speedy Travis Beckum placed first in the bench press among TEs. Probably would have been first in the 40 if he had run. William Beatty finished fifth in the 40 and sixth in the bench among tackles.

Learning From Mistakes / Adapting Over Time

The draft position of RBs and DTs flipped between decades. Poor RB draft results in the 1990's may be partially to blame. In the 1990's and early 2000's they favored WRs that were tall and fast. None of them became good players. In recent years it has been mixed. There have been small speedy guys like Sinorice Moss and Jerel Jernigan, to larger players like Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden, to route runners with no distinguishing physical traits or abilities like Steve Smith and Victor Cruz (undrafted). Except for Moss, picked several years ago, all of them had college production. The good college producers in the 1990's (Amani Toomer and Ike Hilliard) had the greatest success as well.

Thinking Ahead

Many of the comments and analysis done on the mock drafts on this site and everywhere else are based upon talent levels at various positions and age. Sometimes oversized contracts or known free agency situations are considered. But it is rare to attempt to analyze needs and free agency for future years. The Giants do that in their drafts. Prince Amukamara was seen as a pure BPA pick but the Giants #2 and #3 CBs are free agents at the end of this season. James Brewer was drafted this year because Kareem McKenzie is in the last year of his contract. Linval Joseph was a 2nd rounder drafted a year before Barry Cofield hit free agency. The Giants like to slowly develop players. The last Giants rookie to start more than half of the games in his rookie season was Aaron Ross in 2007. The last to win a starting job out of training camp was Barry Cofield in 2006.

Conference Favoritism?

In the 1990's the Giants were well known as a Big 10 team. Looking at the first four rounds, the Giants drafted players from the Big 10 twice as much as any other conference. In the last 10 years, that has changed. The Giants have drafted players from the ACC twice as much as any other conference. Another trend that has emerged is a willingness to spend high picks on smaller school players. In the last 10 years, they have picked players from minor conferences in the first four rounds twice as much as the next highest major conference after the ACC. The way scouting has progressed over time, this may be true of the NFL as a whole.

Character

There has been a lot of talk here in past years about the Giants being a "character" team. While I think that is true, it is not necessarily in relation to the draft. The Giants have been willing to take chances on some players with minor (stupid things college kids do) infractions that have fallen in the draft past the slot their talent deserves. Marvin Austin, Mario Manningham, and Ahmad Bradshaw fit this category. As a result I would believe that all of the Ohio State players are on their board. I think the character reputation comes more from the top of their organization. The owners display a lot of class. The same for the management and coaching staffs. There are no negative comments, there is no gossip. They like to promote people from within the organization. They are generally patient with their staff. The players are allowed more freedom to act as they choose. However, the one thing I would add is that the Giants have shown an interest in drafting and signing players from good academic schools. They have two Ivy Leaguers right now, tops in the NFL, and have had players from Duke, Northwestern, William & Mary, etc. on the roster.

How This Applies to Mocks Here

The Giants have needs. Our starting MLB missed this season with an ACL tear and Kiwanuka may eventually be moved back to DE. But the idea that they would draft two LBs early is completely contrary to their draft history and philosophy. More important to the draft is that their 3rd WR and two important CBs are unrestricted free agents. The Giants have a bunch of late-round draft picks and undrafted players at linebacker that show promise. They will sooner roll the dice on one of them being successful than use an early pick on a linebacker instead of a player at a position that has a greater influence on the outcome of a game.

So in the first 2-3 rounds, instead of asking "What are the Giants needs", you should be asking "What kind of player fits the Giants mold? Who has size and speed? Which player is a potential game changer?"

I have again this year decided to try to predict compensatory draft picks to feed my draft obsession. Last year I did rather well, in that I was able to correctly assign picks for players with the exception of Seattle and Baltimore, where a midseason contract renegotiation with Cory Redding that I was not aware of gave Baltimore a pick instead of Seattle receiving a rather high pick from losing Burleson. I was also off by a round for a few picks, most of which I can relate to playing time differential.

I again claim no credit for the basis behind this work, as I did nothing original. I shamelessly used AdamJT13's publicly posted guidelines as best as I could. You can find his work at adamjt13.blogspot.com. Unfortunately it looks like he has abandoned his research. If you are unfamiliar with his work, the basics that affect comp picks are:

1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.

2. Players earning minimum salaries do not count.

3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.

4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.

Continue reading this post »

Had to get this posted before the order reset again. I use NEPatriotsDraft, which updates the draft order by strength of schedule each week, and I modified it for playoffs.

I placed guys based upon where they were on my board, then look at team need. If you want to debate a player's draft position, I'd be glad to, too much talk about need and not enough about the players.

Any player that I thought had a shot at the 1st round in 2013 or a large improvement I kept out as "returned to school". Names of note were Osweiler, Wilson (Arkansas), Wagner, Eifert, Rhodes (Florida State), and Worthy.

So here goes:

FIRST ROUND:

1 (1) - IND - Ryan Lindley, QB, San Diego State - Just kidding, it's Luck.

2 (2) - MIN - Matt Kalil, LT, USC - Obvious. Best player, positional value.

3 (3) - STL - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State - Strong look at Richardson here. Considered Claiborne as well. Two guys that will play well on turf. But Blackmon is my #3, and Lloyd is not the next Holt - 1 good season, not young.

4 (4) - JAC - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU - Between Claiborne and Floyd. Sorry, no senior captain with a clean record here.

5 (5) - CAR - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame - I don't see this as much of a need, but he is the best non-QB on the board.

6 (6) - MIA - Matt Barkley, QB, USC - Ready to play right away, looks good in the pocket.

7 (7) - WAS - Robert Griffen, QB, Baylor - I bet he could complete passes upside down. Deep ball accuracy, accuracy on the run is unbelievable.

8 (8) - ARI - Jonathan Martin, LT, Stanford - He does not belong any higher. The need locks in this pick.

9 (9) - PHI - Alshon Jeffrey, WR, South Carolina - The Eagles I know don't pick a LB this high. And this creates a monster WR core. Yes, they still extend Jackson too.

10 (10) - CLE - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - A good value here, and you need weapons to help McCoy. Who gets one more year.

11 (11) - KC - Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma - No one seems to think Cassel is anything special. Which means you need a better QB. And they need to keep their starting CBs. Yes, Jones had a bad game yesterday. But you can't let that affect the pick. Go back on MTD to 2009 around this time and see what we were saying about Bradford. Or 2010 about Locker. Cassel is entering the cheapest year of his contract, Jones does not have to play right away.

12 (12) - SEA - Quentin Coples, DE/DT, North Carolina - I think Seattle can make use of Coples' abilities with they way their D-line operates.

13 (13) - SD - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama - Gave a lot of thought to his teammate Upshaw here, especially with Gilchrist and Wright drafted last year. I would have grabbed Jeffrey if he had fallen. CB and OLB are positions that will be hit by free agency soon, and I'd keep Phillips over an aging Jammer and Cason.

14 (14) - TB - Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska - Need and value match, thought about Konz here as well.

15 (15) - BUF - Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama - Merriman is just dead weight. Upshaw is a true OLB that can get the QB but also play the run and some coverage.

16 (16) - TEN - Luke Kuechly, MLB, Boston College - Ruud has been a bust and Kuechly is just too good to pass up. He makes so many tackles because he's always in the right place. Always.

17 (17) - NYJ - Mike Adams, RT, Ohio State - It really vexes them that they cannot run or protect Sanchez, this pick solves both problems. I think Adams could play LT, but obviously not here with Ferguson.

18 (18) - DEN - David Wilson, RB, Virginia Tech - Great combination of size and speed, Fox will want to run the ball to help Tebow. The only other pick that I considered here was Zack Brown, but three LBs were drafted last year.

19 (19) - NYG - Peter Konz, C/G - Powerful but can pull, perfect Giants lineman. Although not a typical position pick this high, like the Jets, the desire to run the ball trumps all else.

20 (20) - CLE from ATL - Mohammed Sanu, WR, Rutgers - They need a do-it-all WR that can run all of the routes, get open, and make the catch. That's Sanu. The size and speed to play outside, yet does most of his work over the middle. Zach Brown again considered here, but the offense needs more help.

21 (21) - DAL - Janorris Jenkins, CB, Northern Alabama - Proved his ability last year against top SEC WRs, pot smoking at college is hardly a unique incident.

22 (22) - CIN from OAK - David DeCastro, G, Stanford - Great on his feet, tough. Between him and Boling it is hard to tell who will play left and who will play right, one will probably have to bulk up a little. Much more athletic combo than big Bobbie Williams and Livings.

23 (23) - CIN - Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia - Physical player yet quick enough to play the slot for Virginia, Mike Brown knows the lineage well.

24 (24) - CHI - Dwight Jones, WR, North Carolina - Like Cleveland, they need a multi-ability WR. Knox and Hester are fast (understatement of the year), but someone has to run the full route tree.

25 (25) - DET - Riley Reiff, LT, Iowa - I think it's safe to call Backus old now. Many have Reiff higher, but I think that is ignoring talent for need. He lets a lot of rushers get inside him and needs some work. But he has the athletic ability to play the left side, and teams picking this low can't afford to pass good left tackle prospects if they have a need.

26 (26) - HOU - Brandon Thompson, NT, Clemson - A huge value pick that could have gone earlier, I'd consider giving him to KC at 11. But 1-tech DTs do not have positional value and a lot of higher teams are set in the middle.

27 (27) - NE - Melvin Ingram, OLB/DE, South Carolina - The ability to play multiple positions, but with Haynesworth gone and Ellis and Carter short-timers it would make sense to go back to a 3-4. I love his speed off the end. But he could play LDE. Or rush DT.

28 (28) - NE from NO - Jared Crick, DE/DT - Watch his tape from 2010. Or the Wisconsin game this year. Gets push on double teams. Bull rushes single blockers. Chases QBs to the sideline. I could give a crap that he's not 300 lbs. I look for results. He's a 3-4 DE in the Seymour mold, but he could play 3-tech DT like he does at Nebraska.

29 (29) - BAL - Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State - It helps to have Ray Lewis as a mentor. A defense with veteran leaders to try and straighten Burfict out. Because he needs straightening. Physical attacker needs to improve his thinking processes.

30 (30) - SF - Jayron Hosley, CB, Virginia Tech - Quick feet and tough for a small guy, a slot CB that will hit you. Sticks to WRs like glue. Keeps the tall Culliver outside.

31 (31) - PIT - Barrett Jones, LG/T, Alabama - Strong and agile, can play multiple positions, fits the Steelers mold. I'm leaning towards left guard, especially with my later picks.

32 (32) - GB - Vincent Curry, OLB, Marshall - A late riser on my board. I see him as an OLB, he hustles around the field and covers ground. Which is good because with Matthews on the other side he won't be a full-time rusher.

SECOND ROUND:

1 (33) - IND - Mike Brewster, C/G, Ohio State - Not the position Indy fans want, but I do not see a greater need I like here (see how far down my next WR and CB are picked). Indy has more regular players (starters and subs that play numerous snaps) as free agents than any other team, including at guard, so there are holes to fill. Brewster is not the strongest in this class, but he moves well and is intelligent - teams line up their DTs away from him, and he does a good job figuring out which guard to help - or often helps both.

2 (34) - STL - Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina - A BPA pick that fell because of so many 3-4 teams drafting in the 20's. Rams have so many holes, they have to really focus on BPA.

3 (35) - MIN - Markelle Martin, FS, Oklahoma State - He's higher on my board than many others, I could also see him going to the Rams. Covers a lot of ground, makes intelligent decisions.

4 (36) - CAR - Kevin Zeitler, G, Wisconsin - The best offensive lineman left on my board, he can play left or right sides. Don't see any other good players to fit needs here, and this is a need.

5 (37) - MIA - Don'ta Hightower, ILB, Alabama - A BPA pick, can't believe he fell this far. Faster than everyone thinks (he played injured last year). Big hitter.

6 (38) - JAC - Brandon Jenkins, RDE, Florida State - I'm liking him more as a RDE now than an OLB, Kampman cannot be relied upon, a different kind of player than the larger DEs on the Jags roster. Small but moves off the left tackle well.

7 (39) - PHI from ARI - Manti Te'o, MLB, Notre Dame - This is where the top MLB usually falls. Although this does not match Philly draft history, I think LB is a special concern this year. Te'o and Chaney can play either MLB or SAM.

8 (40) - PHI - Nick Foles, QB, Arizona - A shocker. One QB goes to the desert, one comes back from the desert. I have him as a first round talent. Threads the needle more than any other QB in the draft. Vick is getting hurt often, backup QB gains high priority. Or future starter????

9 (41) - CLE - Whitney Mercilus, RDE, Illinois - Still looking for pieces to complete the swtich to 4-3, WILLs here but RDE ranks higher.

10 (42) - KC - Lamar Miller, RB, Miami - With Charles coming off a major injury and Jones aging, I see this as a necessary pick.

11 (43) - SEA - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M - Really rethinking this after watching the Texas game. Physical skills but mentally lacking, but he is "new" at QB. Fans claim they want a mobile QB. Who starts in 2012 would be a big question. But without trading up, it's either Tannehill or wait until 2013.

12 (44) - SD - Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson - A value pick to a team that knows how to use him, I keep reading reports that Gates' injury is long-term trouble, and he is not young.

13 (45) - TB - Kelechi Osemele, RT/G, Iowa State - I think very little of Trueblood, and the interior line could use help too. Blount needs big holes.

14 (46) - WAS - Casey Heyward, CB, Vanderbilt - Had this pick last week when Washington was higher, more comfortable with it now that they moved down the draft. Also happy to see a Redskins fan suggest it in another post. Heyward, like Jenkins, proved his worth one-on-one against top WRs..

15 (47) - BUF - Jarius Wright, WR, Arkansas - I have this guy at the top of the 2nd tier of WRs, can replace Parrish who was never that successful.

16 (48) - NYJ - Marvin McNutt, WR, Iowa - A late season riser with good hands and good routes, runs more of the tree than Edwards or Burress.

17 (49) - DEN - Stephen Gilmore, CB, South Carolina - He's athletic but I have him further back then most because his coverage skills are not great. Send him to live with Bailey.

18 (50) - NYG - LaMichael James, RB, Oregon - I'm not sure if I believe this myself. Bradshaw is a constant injury threat and Jacobs is declining, James brings speed and toughness for his size. Almost went Pead here.

19 (51) - TEN - Mark Barron, S, Alabama - Took a hard look at Ben Jones here. Titans have free agents and age at the safety position, and Barron is a very smart defender ready to play right away.

20 (52) - ATL - Andrew Datko, LT, Florida State - The uncertainty over his shoulder pushes him past the top of the 2nd round. The pros have better doctors. Good feet. Baker is coming up on free agency and has never performed at a 1st round level.

21 (53) - NE from OAK - Ben Jones, C, Georgia - A lot of teams will be looking at him. Koppen is likely done, and this completes the makeover of the old OL, only Mankins is left.

22 (54) - CIN - Cyrus Gray, RB, Texas A&M - He played hurt in the beginning of the year, and now is out. Neither career threatening. I remember 2010 when we were talking about a future 1st rounder. Considering Michael was healthy, don't know why A&M played him through the hamstring injury.

23 (55) - CHI - Brandon Washington, G, Miami - Better off moving back to guard. Can't really explain what the Bears are doing, and why Garza got a multi-year extension at his age and ability level, so don't be surprised if they draft zero OL. But I'm giving them one.

24 (56) - DAL - TJ McDonald, FS, USC - More secondary help for Dallas, a large athlete that needs to learn discipline, but Jones likes flashy.

25 (57) - DET - Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma - Drops because of the injury, so a BPA here, but Burleson might become too expensive by the end of his contract.

26 (58) - NE - Jeff Fuller, WR, Texas A&M - Another big dropper, but he won't be expected to carry the load here so he would have time to develop. NE should use all of its picks this year to make a push while Brady and Wilfork are still dominating, plus, acquiring lots of picks has filled many holes, but had some misses, there are only a few holes left that need good young talent.

27 (59) - NO - Lavonte David, OLB, Nebraska - The speed to use in the dome, and a great job playing the run the last few weeks.

28 (60) - HOU - Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor - How scared were the fans when Johnson was injured? They definitely need more talent and depth at WR, and Wright is a good value here.

29 (61) - BAL - Robert Lester, S, Alabama - He's not going to be the next Ed Reed, but he understands his coverage responsibilites. Needs to come out now, he could look worse next year with two new CBs in front of him.

30 (62) - SF - Billy Winn, DE, Boise State - I know your DEs are playing well. But Winn is an incredible athlete and the best player available here, Smith will last longer if you give him some occasional rest.

31 (63) - PIT - Josh Chapman, NT, Alabama - The last step in Smith-Hampton-Keisel becoming Hood-Chapman-Heyward.

32 (64) - GB - Devon Still, DE, Penn State - Not a favorite player of mine but GB likes to rotate the D-line and they have had some turnover at DE.

THIRD ROUND:

1 (65) - IND - AJ Jenkins, WR, Illinois - Indy loves those 6-0 fast guys. Wayne should resign but Gonzalez is headed for semi-pro and Garcon could draw interest from other teams.

2 (66) - MIN - Alameda Ta'amu, DT, Washington - Big does not equal nose tackle. Needs a lot of technique work, hopefully Pat will stick around and help out. Strong upper body, quick for his size, but trouble anchoring. At this point, Minnesota should be looking for free agent WR help.

3 (67) - STL - Kawann Short, DT, Purdue - Need to get some pass rush up the middle, and he is the BPA here.

4 (68) - MIA - Greg Childs, WR, Arkansas - Size and speed if he can overcome his injuries, needs to shut down after the bowl game Might go Toon here or Cordy Glenn if he fails his medicals.

5 (69) - JAC - Nick Toon, WR, Wisconsin - Reliable hands and route running, a little less flashy because Wisconsin spreads the ball around.

6 (70) - CHI from CAR - Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut - A player I really like, good pursuit speed, and the pass rush a key aspect of the Lovie Smith defense.

7 (71) - PHI - Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin - 30+ touchdowns, probably because he never tried to pitch the ball backwards from the goal line.

8 (72) - CLE - Cordy Glenn, RG, Georgia - McCoy is taking a beating back there, and it's not because of Joe Thomas. Glenn is a great athlete for a big man, good feet.

9 (73) - KC - Zebrie Sanders, RT, Florida State - Much better athlete than anyone else the Chiefs have tried at right tackle.

10 (74) - SEA - Chris Polk, RB, Washington - Forsett had a good rookies year but has been slowly falling out of favor..

11 (75) - SD - Ronnell Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma - English is officially a bust and both current starters at OLB are free agents in 2013..

12 (76) - TB - Isaiah Pead, RB, Cincinnati - The exact opposite of Blount, real exciting player.

13 (77) - WAS - Joe Adams, WR, Arkansas - Last year they drafted taller outside WRs, this year they get a guy for the slot. Don't see any OL here for Shanahan's offense.

14 (78) - ARI - Chase Thomas, OLB, Stanford - Porter is done, and Thomas and Acho makes them younger and better. Also considered guards here.

15 (79) - BUF - Keith Tandy, CB, West Virginia - I think he has the potential to be a starter, good speed and coverage ability, many disappointments in Buffalo at CB. Can cover the slot.

16 (80) - DEN - Kirk Cousins, QB, Michigan State - No one is sure about Tebow, Cousins has a big arm and was impressive on a run-first team.

17 (81) - NYG - Keenan Robinson, LB, Texas - Giants stop squeezing players into the SAM role. A big, athletic, hard-hitting linebacker who will start when Kiwanuka moves back to DE.

18 (82) - TEN - Blake DeChristopher, G, Virginia Tech - Another team with a coaching change looking for bigger OL. Not quick enough for RT but he pulls very well.

19 (83) - NYJ - Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State - Versatile athlete that can rush the passer but also handle the coverage responsibilites that the Jets put on their OLBs, takes the place of Thomas.

20 (84) - ATL - Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford - The new TE is overdone to Atlanta. But they need more pass catchers and Fleener is a good value here.

21 (85) - CIN - DeVier Posey, WR, Ohio State - Has looked good since returning to play, even though Miller is not throwing the ball much, and the cops are not monitoring his house for drug activity.

22 (86) - CHI - Cliff Harris, CB, Oregon - With good mass transit in Chicago Harris will not need to drive, Bears are a veteran team that can take in a young wildcard.

23 (87) - DAL - Kheeston Randall, DE, Texas - A lot of enphasis on defense but that is how the board is falling, and you have to do better than Kenyon Coleman, a career "because there is nobody better" player.

24 (88) - OAK - Lost due to drafting Terrelle Pryor in the 2011 supplemental draft.

25 (89) - DET - Levy Adcock, RG, Oklahoma State - I'm not sold on him as a tackle, but his tackle skills make him a good guard for a passing team.

26 (90) - NO - Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech - They are bound to lose a WR in free agency just like the Colts, and they can afford to wait while Hill learns a real passing offense.

27 (91) - HOU - Brandon Taylor, FS, LSU - With everyone watching their corners, people are missing their great safety play. Texans can ditch Manning's ridiculous contract to pay their OL.

28 (92) - NE - Neiko Thorpe, FS, Auburn - Still learning the position but a guy I see around the ball a lot, may be a slight reach here but it is hard to find a good free safety.

29 (93) - BAL - Brandon Mosley, LT, Auburn - Another player lost in the shadow of Cam. I was scouting Branch on Clemson early in the year, noticed Mosley instead.

30 (94) - SF - Eric Page, WR, Toledo - Great hands and catching ability, replacing Ginn in the slot.

31 (95) - PIT - Matt Reynolds, LT, BYU - I have a higher rating on him than most other people do. And the Steelers favor larger linemen like Starks.

32 (96) - GB - Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State - Need a good backup for this offense, maturity a plus in this instance. A lot of talk about other teams looking at Flynn

FOURTH ROUND:

1 (97) - IND - Leonard Johnson, CB, Iowa State - Speedy CB that has done well against top competition.

2 (98) - STL - Doug Martin, RB, Boise State - A do-it-all back with good speed and receiving ability.

3 (99) - MIN - Jordan White, WR, Western Michigan - Later than I wanted to address WR but the board did not cooperate, since there are a lot of holes to fill.

4 (100) - JAC - Juron Criner, WR, Arizona - Very good hands, just not very quick.

5 (101) - CAR - Brandon Boykin, CB, Georgia - Good athlete that still needs work on coverage skills, but plays physical, and can handle returns.

6 (102) - MIA - Mike Ryan, RT, Connecticut - Much more athletic than their other recent RTs.

7 (103) - CLE - Travis Lewis, LB, Oklahoma - A good value here to play WILL, pushed back by too many 3- 4 teams.

8 (104) - KC - Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis - Needed even with Powe drafted last year, Gregg is ancient.

9 (105) - SEA - Frank Alexander, DE, Oklahoma - Taking value off the board, and another outside rusher to pair with or back up Clemons.

10 (106) - SD - Ryan Miller, RT, Colorado - Tall and athletic, will upgrade the pass protection.

11 (107) - PHI from TB - Emmanuel Acho, LB, Texas - Athletic LB with size, could be used as a size upgrade over Rolle or a speed upgrade over Chaney.

12 (108) - WAS - William Vlachos, C, Alabama - Small but powerful center that opens big holes for the running game.

13 (109) - ARI - Marquis Maze, WR, Alabama - They can use a slot WR, speed and elusiveness, can handle returns if Peterson becomes too valuable to risk.

14 (110) - PHI - Nate Potter, T, Boise State - I have him lower than most, don't like him a LT. He's a better backup than Dunlap, though, and can allow Herremans to move back to guard if necessary.

15 (111) - BUF - Bruce Irvin, OLB, West Virginia - A role player only, but good value here.

16 (112) - NYG - BJ Cunningham, WR, Michigan State - He catches the football when it hits his hands and makes plays.

17 (113) - TEN - TY Hilton, WR, Florida International - A team full of outside WRs can use a good slot guy.

18 (114) - NYJ - D'Anton Lynn, FS, Penn State - They draft a coach's son to play coverage safety.

19 (115) - DEN - Lucas Nix, G/RT, Pittsburgh - Similar to ex-teammate Pinkston is that he's a guard-tackle tweener that can play multiple positions, maybe Franklin moves inside.

20 (116) - CLE from ATL - Audie Cole, LB, North Carolina State - Will move back to SAM for a 4-3 team.

21 (117) - CHI - Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State - On an offense built around the QB, you need a great backup.

22 (118) - DAL - Julian Miller, OLB, West Virginia - Looking for someone to push Spencer.

23 (119) - WAS from OAK - Tank Carder, ILB, TCU - I can't believe he fell this far. How can you pass on a player named Tank?

24 (120) - CIN - Trumaine Johnson, CB/FS, Montana - He drops a little with the character concerns, but the cop pulled a taser out to break up a noisy party, I can hardly blame him.

25 (121) - DET - Andre Branch, DE, Clemson - After dropping this far the Lions grab the top player still on the board. I don't think he's quick enough to go higher, but he plays the run well. Future LDE if Avril moves over?

26 (122) - HOU - Moe Petrus, C/G - The strength of the Texans is the interior OL play. Petrus insures against injury or free agent losses.

27 (123) - NE - Kenny Tate, S, Maryland - Belichick will find a way to make use of him.

28 (124) - NO - Cam Johnson, DE, Virginia - It's hard to ignore BPA pass rushers in the late rounds, Romeus is still an unknown.

29 (125) - BUF from BAL - Bernard Pierce, RB, Temple - Jackson's injury showed the need for someone else to be physical and absorb some carries.

30 (126) - SF - Trenton Robinson, FS, Michigan State - Need a long-term solution at the position.

31 (127) - PIT - Aaron Henry, S, Wisconsin - Taking a shot at upgrading Clark.

32 (128) - GB - Jerry Franklin, ILB, Arkansas - Restoring some depth to the position, a guy that caught my eye when I was not scouting him.

This was beamed directly to my head last night, so no one else may have heard it.  But this is my account of a reporter (R) questioning Gilbride (KG) after the game.

I am not advocating a complete overhaul here.  But I continually see easily fixed minor issues that repeat week after week.  Do we not watch our own game tapes?  Here is a question that I would love to ask:

If the curtains in your house are on fire, do you:  1) Put them out with a fire extinguisher, or 2) Do nothing because the curtains are not on fire in the world that you expected.

 

R:  There has been a lot of complaining about the number of draw plays run recently.  Can you explain what you are trying to do there?

KG:  Well, we are trying to counter the defense's blitzes and pass rush by getting them to start upfield, and then running the ball through the "A" gap.

R:  But don't most teams blitz through the "A" gap nowadays?  Is that not why so few other teams run draw plays now?

KG:  Gee, I have not really thought about that.  Maybe we'll run some more screens instead.

R:  The screen pass is supposed to be a high-percentage throw. Why then do you suppose that you only complete 50% of them?

KG:  Well, the other teams have done good jobs reading the play.

R:  Do you think it has something to do with the fact that so many of your screens go up the middle as well?  Where the defenders are already in the way because of A-gap blitzes or because the DT was not able to get penetration even though the offensive line is trying to let them through?  Is it a good idea to throw the ball into a pile of bodies?

KG:  Gee, I have not thought about that either.  But our one screen last game was not up the middle.

R:  Yes, the one to Ballard that fell incomplete.  If I recall on that play, Ballard stayed at his spot on the left side of the line of scrimmage, turned around, and Eli missed him with the throw because he was rushed.  The linebackers were right on that play.  Do you think that might have been because the Eagles were in zone coverage, and Ballard was the only eligible receiver on that side, so the SAM had nothing else to do but watch him?  Or the fact that since Ballard was on the line of scrimmage, the offensive line could not get in front of him to block because it was a pass play?

KG:  Hmm, maybe that play needs tweaking.

R:  Maybe you should throw more traditional screens to the flat.  Where the RB sneaks out toward the sideline, behind the line of scrimmage, and two offensive linemen get out in front.  The way every other team from high school to the pros does it.  Do you realize that absent two excellent individual efforts from defenders, that play has gained positive yardage every [every = four] time that you have tried it?  Including against the Eagles?

KG:  Well, it's too late to do anything about that now.  Our offensive game plan is already set for the season.

R:  I was wondering if you noticed during the game that the Eagles receivers are always running when the ball is thrown to them, either upfield or toward the sideline, while the Giants receivers are frequently standing still or coming back to the QB?  Can you explain that?

KG:  Well, we don't want Eli taking chances.  And it is easier to throw to receivers standing still than ones moving.  Last year, we ran more of those slants that you guys are always talking about.  But our receivers kept tipping balls in the air for interceptions.  So we got rid of the slants.

R:  So your solution to your receivers having poor hands is to expect less of them?  How about playing different receivers?  Or working on Eli throwing the ball lower?

KG:  Once things are set they are set.  Once you have your playing group, and once a QB is comfortable with his mechanics, it's better just to leave things the way they are.  Everyone is comfortable.

R:  So your team has played some teams that have notoriously poor safety play this year.  How does that affect your game planning?

KG:  As I said earlier, the game plans are already set.  If there is a safety back in coverage, we do not throw it anywhere near there.  Keep the ball to the sidelines.  Trying to avoid those interceptions.  Look what happened this week.  The linebacker picked off Eli's throw.

R:  But that was a poor throw.  Cruz was wide open, as he was in front of the safeties over the middle several times in that game.

KG:  But Eli could make a poor throw again.  It's better to play it safe.

R:  How do you explain Eli's success in the 4th quarter, when you are more pressed to put points on the board, than the first three quarters?  Eli seems to produce better when given more freedom to throw the ball and is not forced to play ball control.

KG:  Well, I think luck has a lot to do with it.  He's still the same person throwing to the same guys.  It's not like the play calls are that much different.  I'm still in charge.

R:  What happened to that great bootleg that Eli ran in for a touchdown in the first game of the season?

KG:  We really do not like to use trick plays.  That was an once-in-a-lifetime call.

R:  So you consider a bootleg a trick play?

KG:  Yes, it's no different than a reverse [zero in 2011], or a flea flicker [zero in 2011], or a fake field goal [no statistic needed].

R:  So the fact that Jernigan had a 172.1 passer rating and two TDs in college...

KG:  Don't go there.  Never gonna happen.

R:  Not even to run with the ball?

KG:  Nope.  Too dangerous.

R:  Have you tried working Jernigan into the offense in any other way in practice?

KG:  What do you mean?  Jernigan runs routes in practice just like everyone else.  Just like Nicks.  Just like Manningham.  Just like Cruz.

R:  But shouldn't players with different skill sets have different plays to utilize their skills?

KG:  Why?  We treat every player the same.  They get the same chances.  They can fit into our system, or they can move on.

R:  Back to your system.  Coughlin is quoted last night as saying that the offensive line got outplayed by the Eagles "front eight".  As teams are constantly putting a safety in the box, have you thought about trying to game plan around it?

KG:  You are not listening.  Our game plan is set.  We are a running team.  We run the ball up the middle.  I don't care what the defense does.  We are going to play our game.  Our guys are going to beat their guys.  Just wait and see.

R:  I'm waiting......

 

I may lack some of the technical jargon for this discussion, but I have a pretty good handle on the physics of movement, and this is something that has been bothering me since the start of the season.

 

Some people do not like the Cover 2 zone defense we have been playing.  Some people have been criticizing the frequency with which we blitz.  Or the logic behind our occasional 3-man rushes.  My thoughts on these topics vary.  I may not like these elements, but I can live with them.  But I have a very simple, yet influential problem with our base defense.  I do not like the way we line up.

 

via www.football-plays.com

 

 

From www.football-plays.com/formations/11/4-3-defense-formation.php

This is our base defensive formation.  I call this 4-3 "stacked", where all three linebackers are standing in a row in the middle of the formation.  It is a very common defense.  I DO NOT LIKE IT IN GENERAL.  I HATE IT FOR THE GIANTS.

In my opinion, this does not work with either modern zone and second-level blocking, or with the Giants personnel.  In modern run-blocking schemes, offensive linemen are assigned to block linebackers, either as a primary duty, or more likely after releasing off a defensive lineman.  This defensive alignment allows for a single offensive lineman to block two linebackers.  How?  If the line of scrimmage is not pushed back, the middle linebacker just needs to be held up or pushed to one side on inside runs to wall off one of the outside linebackers.  This linebacker is standing rather flatfooted off the snap, waiting because the play is coming near him.  More than likely he is just shuffling his feet.  He's suddenly surrounded by big, round bodies that weigh more than him.  The running back is hitting the hole with some speed.  Can the outside linebacker tiptoe through a gap without getting pushed around?  Can he suddenly accelerate to force himself through a gap, get push on the pile, or catch the running back as he passes the middle linebacker?  All difficult tasks.  There are too many bodies in the way.

The flatfooted issue also affect outside runs.  Before the running back gets the handoff, the linebackers are trying to read the play.  But it could go inside, it could go outside.  So they are shuffling their feet again.  The running back is going to get the ball and is going to be able to instantly accelerate or cut and accelerate.  He is probably faster than the linebackers.  He is almost definitely quicker in change of direction than the linebackers.  He knows where the play is designed to go.  If it is going out wide, it is a quick foot plant while already moving forward, and go.  The linebacker is in the midst of his foot shuffle.  He must now plant and accelerate.  He was only lined up three feet outside of the QB at the snap.  Is the linebacker going to beat the running back to the sideline?  No.  I take you to Lynch's big outside run to the right last week.  Jacquian Williams was the linebacker on that side.  At the snap, he took two light steps forward.  Those two steps took him completely out of the play.  By the time he turned his hips to run for the sideline, the play was by him.  Many of you did not notice this because he was nowhere near the action.  And he is our fastest linebacker. 

This is the 4-3 formation I would prefer:

via upload.wikimedia.org

 

From Wikipedia, search topic: formation (American football)

I will call this the 4-3 "split".  The linebackers start out wide and closer to the line of scrimmage.  The WILL is going to have empty space in front of him, the SAM will likely have a tight end.  At the snap, if they make a run read they are free to try and come upfield to prevent the outside run.  They are in a position where they can beat the running back to the outside spot.  Force the run inside to your tacklers.  If the run goes the other direction, they can pursue from the backside to try and eliminate slower-developing cutbacks.  On runs up the middle, they will be running into the play from the side.  Harder to account for with blocking assignments.  They are coming with speed and force, giving them an advantage if they have to go through someone or squeeze through a gap.  The speed is also an advantage with making the tackle.

If you watch the successful runs of McCoy, Wells, and Lynch against us, you will see that the majority of big runs were to the outside, and rarely were linebackers in the play.  The only time Arrington gained yardage against us was on the sideline.  Everyone recalls Kiwi running by Wells on the goal line; what made it memorable was that it was the only time someone other than Webster was on the edge.  McCoy was making cuts out in the flat.  But he had room to make these cuts, and there was space for him to run through.  It was not our linebackers out there forcing the cuts, it was Rolle and the other defensive backs.

Think of what we are asking Boley, Kiwanuka, and Greg Jones to do.  None of these guys are sprinters.  They are probably slower than the average NFL player at their position.  Yet we are asking them to cover large sections of the field.  We are asking inexperienced players to make quick reads to get into the right position.  Meanwhile, the strength of this team is supposed to be the defensive line.  We have plus run stoppers at defensive end in JPP and Tuck, and we have big run-stuffers at defensive tackle.  We should be directing the running backs into them, not away from them.  We should be playing to our strengths.  But our formation at the snap does not allow us to accomplish this goal.

I could also get into the proven failure of one defender up, two defenders back when the offense puts three receivers on one side, but that is for a different day.

It is too early in the season to reasonably guess at draft order, so I decided to just rank the college players based upon where I thought there talent should land them.  I have groups of QBs and CBs in the Top 20 range and a group of MLB/ILBs in the Top 32 range; probably some of these would fall lower because teams will consider position need when drafting.

Continue reading this post »

 

I started thinking about handicapping Cofield's chances of landing with another team a few weeks before the draft, then held off figuring the pictures of other teams would be clearer.  Little did I think we would make a move that would make it almost certain that Cofield will be gone.  Between Fewell not being a DT rotation guy, to drafting Joseph and Austin, to paying Canty $7 million a year, to having numerous other free agents to pay, I am barely even going to consider him staying with the Giants.  Is it possible?  Sure.  The DT market is not strong, with college teams playing 4-3 and half of pro teams playing a 3-4, you need less DTs.  So perhaps we can resign him at a reasonable price (the original planned focus of my story), and we won't just hand the job over to our draft picks. 

I think the most likely scenario under which we keep him is that there are simply no other teams that are interested in spending the money.  Cofield is most likely considered as a 1-tech DT in a 4-3 alignment and a LDE in a 3-4 alignment.  Those are not big money positions, except for the occasional star such as Pat Williams on the Vikings or Ty Warren on the Patriots.  His height/weight is not ideal for a NT, but he has the skills for the position.  He might have had a career-high four sacks last year, but he is not what teams are looking for when money is spent on a 3-tech DT.

Another issue is whether he leaves this year or next, and how he leaves.  We have the second-round tender on him for now.  But the rules could change with the new contract, and I'd bet against 5 year restricted free agents remaining (owners can give the players collectively less money if the players have individual chances of increasing their salaries earlier).  In either case the short free agent time period will make it difficult to make trades or sign new players.  I think we would take the second round pick rather than match an offer higher than our tender.  If teams do not want to give up the second rounder, maybe there is a sign-and-trade agreement where he accepts the tender, we trade for a lesser pick, and he signs a contract extension with the new team.  I don't think we would take less than a 3rd or a 4th, because if we lose him as an unrestricted free agent we get a compensatory pick, and value-wise it makes sense to hope for the 4th rather than take a lower safe pick.  At 6th round comp pick money we may sign him regardless of our other DTs - it's Bernard-level money.

So below are the teams I see in the Cofield market.  If these seem like reaches, it shows the limited demand for his services.

 

Most Interested:

Denver Broncos (2011 & 2012) - Everyone knows they need DTs, probably two of them.  Their run defense last year was awful, and Von Miller will be of little help there.  Although Fox was long gone from the Giants before Cofield was drafted, he knows people within the organization, and is likely to feel comfortable signing a player like Cofield.  Cofield will likely hear good recommendations on Fox.  This is the best-case scenario for everyone.

Dallas Cowboys (I apologize, please choose carefully the object on which you will release your rage from reading this) (2011) - Spears is an unrestricted free agent at LDE and has never lived up to his 1st round draft status.  Their top backup Bowen is also a free agent, along with another DE, Hatcher (who was drafted a round before Cofield, HAH!).  Bowen also has five years in like Cofield.  Barry would be a huge upgrade for them, Jerry has deep pockets, and it would be stealing from a division rival.

 

Medium Interest:

St. Louis Rams (2011 & 2012) - Spagnuolo knows Cofield and has not been shy about bringing in his former players from the Giants (but not the Eagles, interesting?).  Many people talk about the bigger need being a future 3-tech to replace Robbins, but Robbins last year like Abraham in Atlanta did not look like he needs replacing soon.  They have a couple young DTs at the 1-tech slot they are developing, but Spags could grab Cofield if he thinks the talent upgrade is worth it.

Houston Texans (2011 & 2012) - They are switching to the 3-4 and in my opinion have nobody to play NT or LDE.  They did not draft a NT, and the guy they are talking about, Earl Mitchell, entered the NFL as a 285-lb. DT.  I also think Williams and Watt are both RDEs, and in the last day there has been talk about giving Williams snaps at OLB, so perhaps an extra body that could play LDE would be useful as well.  If the first season in the 3-4 has its problem on the DL, Cofield could be an option in 2012 if not now.  Phillips has some familiarity with him from coaching Dallas.

Minnesota Vikings (2012) - Pat Williams is planning to return for another year, even though he is likely to be suspended for four games.  I do not see interest this year, because it is unlikely they have the money to pay two guys for one position and Cofield does not need to be developed or taught.  But they know the value of a good 1-tech and they are trying to rebuild their roster without starting from scratch, so Cofield would be a fit next year if Williams retires.

New Orleans Saints (2012) - The team that wanted Cofield last year.  This year, they grabbed Shaun Rogers, and like Minnesota they do not have the means to pay two guys for one spot.  But if Rogers becomes a 1-year rental Cofield could be in play next year.

 

Low Interest:

San Francisco 49'ers (2011) - Franklin is a free agent at NT, but they want him back and the only major interest would likely be from Houston.  He and Sopoanga at LDE have some age on them, and "Soap" is a two-down player only.  But Cofield is hardly younger or a better rusher, and Harbaugh will be given time to build through the draft.

Seattle Seahawks (2011) - Their best DT, Mebane, is a free agent that they also want back.  The assortment of other DTs is nothing special, and have some age, but they do not indicate a need and are also building through youth.  Seattle runs many unusual fronts (DTs at LDE, for example) and seems to like the players they have.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2012) - They keep talking about Hampton retiring in the future at NT.  They drafted Hood and Heyward to replace their older DEs, which is probably what they will do with Hampton, but if their veterans suddenly retire they may want a veteran presence on the team.  Yeah, this is weak.

Tennessee Titans (2012) - This offseason they expressed a desire to get bigger on the DL, their roster is on the small side.  Then they drafted 6-1 300 lb. Jurrell Casey and Karl Klug, the smallest DT on record.  Maybe he plays LDE.  Maybe Jason Jones plays LDE.  It's hard to say because counting their free agents, they have a zillion DL on the team.  Many have had decent stats but are no-name guys.  They have injury concerns with some of them, think they will lose some of them to other teams, and question whether young guys like Marks will ever develop.  So next year, if they are not happy with their DT play, Cofield becomes an option.

Indianapolis Colts (2012) - They have been told for years they need better run defenders at DT.  And like this year with Nevis, they pick 3-tech pass rush DTs.  The Colts are not a team that signs free agents from other teams.  They build through the draft.  But if run defense is still a problem, maybe they sign a known quantity if they get a good price.

 BBI wins the readability award for his 7-rounder (I might steal that format next time).  I went for the detailed information route.  Thought I'd provide reasoning for most of my picks, share the other players I was thinking about.  Of course, by the time I got around to writing the explanations, I forgot most of the alternate options.  So you are left with my opinion of the player or team need.  I worked off my own big board.  Lost my kicker/punter need sheet, so left them out.  Oh well, only affects a few picks anyway.

Thought a little about free agents.  With free agency unknown, more teams draft for need, most free agents resign with their old teams.  McNabb reworks his contract, gets traded to Minnesota for a 2012 4th or 5th rounder.  Gets one last year to prove he still has talent.  Mentors the QB they draft below.  If Kolb gets traded, it is for one of the 2nd round drafted QBs below.  New team gets more known quantity, Eagles get backup to develop if Vick fails, safe under contract for a few years.  Palmer, if let go, sees little interest.  Bengals grab Mankins for left guard using money from cutting/not resigning underperforming veterans.  Asomugha goes somewhere surprising that does not affect draft.

 

1ST ROUND:

1 - CAROLINA - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia - The best player in the draft.  I've never seen a WR his size run underneath routes so well.   A catch-everything guy.

 

2 - DENVER - Marcel Dareus, DT, Alabama - Size & athleticism, good college experience.  Fills huge need.  No flaws.

 

3 - BUFFALO - Robert Quinn, SOLB, North Carolina - Can play the run as well as rush the passer.  Will line up opposite Merriman in the 3-4, play RDE in the 4-3.  I'm thinking the 3-4 does not last long.

 

4 - CINCINNATI - Cameron Jordan, DT, California - Yes, this high.  A playmaker in the middle.  Will clog the run and rush the passer.  Plays every down hard.

 

5 - ARIZONA - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU - Incredible athleticism, great coverage ability, good size.

 

6 - CLEVELAND - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama - Talent and need match, I have Jones rated higher than any DL here.

 

7 - SAN FRANCISCO - Von Miller, WOLB, Texas A&M - The speed rusher they lack, here he can be the primary rusher all of the time.

 

8 - TENNESSEE - Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri - Someone has to throw the ball, Gabbert has the arm and mobility, consensus safest QB.

 

9 - DALLAS - Nick Fairley, RDE, Alabama - The big name falls, Jerry jumps.  Too early for a RT.

 

10 - WASHINGTON - Cam Newton, QB, Auburn - Big arm, mobile, reminds me of so many Denver QBs. Shanahan and Snyder look to boost their egos by taking the project.

 

11 - HOUSTON - Prince Amukamara, CB/FS, Nebraska - Not sure which he will play, but he is the best talent left.  Too high for Taylor, but some OLBs could go here as well.

 

12 - MINNESOTA - Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas - Mallett goes to a veteran team where there are existing leaders to take some of the pressure off of him.  Keep him under control by rooming him with the Stanford grad.  Helps to resign Rice.

 

13 - DETROIT - DaQuan Bowers, LDE, Clemson - Bowers falls with injury/one-year-wonder concerns, but he will join the DE rotation and push Avril to the future starter at RDE where he is best.

 

14 - ST. LOUIS - Aldon Smith, RDE, Missouri - Incredible athleticism, pushes Long over to LDE.  WR a reach here.

 

15 - MIAMI - Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama - They had their greatest success in recent years when they could run the ball.

 

16 - JACKSONVILLE - Ryan Kerrigan, RDE, Purdue - Like Ingram this is way overdone, may not be flashy but is consistent.

 

17 - NEW ENGLAND - Anthony Castonzo, LT, Boston College - The most-ready LT in the draft, starts right away, Light leaves.

 

18 - SAN DIEGO - Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia - I could also see a DE here, but it's hard to pass up a pass rusher used to the OLB position.

 

19 - NEW YORK GIANTS - Michael Pouncey, C, Florida - Big, agile pulling lineman fits Giants run game, could also wind up at LG.  Tyron Smith also gets a look.

 

20 - TAMPA BAY - J. J. Watt, LDE, Wisconsin - They need help at LDE and RDE, pass rush and run defense, this pick covers both.  They would probably prefer a RDE but none worth this pick.

 

21 - KANSAS CITY - Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor - Chiefs have shown willingness to spend high picks on Dline.  Taylor is more of an athlete than most at NT.

 

22 - INDIANAPOLIS - Tyron Smith, LT, USC - Tremendous athlete, and if not ready for LT can play RT for a year, but I doubt it.

 

23 - PHILADELPHIA - Gabe Carimi, RT, Wisconsin - Justice got benched in the playoffs, has been inconsistent, Philly regretting his extension.  Carimi has the size Reid likes, good mobility for a RT.

 

24 - NEW ORLEANS - Adrian Clayborn, LDE, Iowa - With a need at both ends and no RDE valued here, NO gets someone to pressure the QB.  Also considered LeShoure here.

 

25 - SEATTLE - Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois - Quick and strong, 3-down DT that can play either DT spot.

 

26 - BALTIMORE - Akeem Ayers, SOLB, UCLA - I cannot see Kindle ever getting medical clearance to play again.  I prefer Ayers in a 3-4, and think his skills are similar to Kindle's.  Complements Suggs and Johnson.

 

27 - ATLANTA - Derek Sherrod, LT, Mississippi St. - He can run block, which is important on this team, needs some work pass blocking.  May not start right away, but Baker is considered just average and is approaching free agency.

 

28 - NEW ENGLAND - Muhammad Wilkerson, RDE, Temple - Patriots get back their Seymour.

 

29 - CHICAGO - Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina - A beast to replace Tommie Harris, his suspension reason not worth a draft drop.  Solder gets a look here.

 

30 - NEW YORK JETS - Cameron Heyward, RDE/LDE, Ohio St. - Strong player with pursuit ability, will be groomed to replace Ellis and will cover DeVito on passing downs now if Ellis resigns.

 

31 - PITTSBURGH - Brandon Harris, CB , Miami -  Taylor is slowing down and none of the CBs are considered elite.  Top DL and OLBs gone and too early for Cannon.

 

32 - GREEN BAY - Nate Solder, LT, Colorado - May not be ready to start right away, but the Super Bowl champs can afford this pick.  Tauscher is done and Clifton not far behind.

  

SECOND ROUND:

 

 

1 (33) – NE – Danny Watkins, RG, Baylor – Neal is gone and the OL is getting younger, so they can afford a more mature and likely disciplined player.

 

2 (34) – BUF – Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame –BPA at the top of 2nd has become popular, huge upgrade at position, can block and catch, supports the weak RT position.

 

3 (35) – CIN – Jake Locker, QB, Washington – Falls because of the accuracy issues, Cincy takes the chance, may still keep Palmer no matter what he says.

 

4 (36) – DEN – Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State – Yep, two DTs.  Sets the new front four, eliminates the run defense problem.  Probably plays 1 tech, but Dareus and him can play both. 

 

5 (37) – CLE – Allen Bailey, LDE, Miami – Superb athlete at his best fit position, leaves Roth and Benard to battle it out for RDE.

 

6 (38) – ARI – Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada – Another big QB for Whisenhunt, will have to compete with Skelton, but a better player than any other needs here.  Almost thought Wilson as a SOLB or SILB.

 

7 (39) – TEN – Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois – Can play any of the LB positions, the talent has declined from the McNair years.

 

8 (40) – DAL – Marcus Cannon, RG/RT, TCU – Fits the Cowboys mold, I like him better at RT but he can play either depending on other personnel moves.

 

9 (41) – WAS – Rodney Hudson, C/G, Florida State – A favorite of the pro analysts, could play several spots for the Redskins.

 

10 (42) – HOU – Titus Young, WR, Boise State – Walters may be OK but he allows a permanent double-team on Johnson, Young shakes things up and gives defenses two threats to cover.  They should have noticed by now how Indy always has multiple threats at WR.

 

11 (43) – MIN – Aaron Williams, FS/CB, Texas – This is not that Williams can't play corner, it's that Minny needs speed at the back end.  They are in a passing division now.

 

12 (44) – DET – Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State – Local product that can play middle or weak, quickness should play well on turf.

 

13 (45) – SF – Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State – Alex Smith may be kept around but they will not put all their eggs in one basket, Ponder was an afterthought early because of his injury history but his injuries are not all ongoing concerns, recent performance rises him up, but not a 1st rounder.

 

14 (46) – DEN – Bruce Carter, WLB, North Carolina – Fox has time as a rookie coach switching systems to wait for Carter to heal, gets 1st round talent.

 

15 (47) – STL – Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh – Drops down because he needs some coaching on running routes, but the Rams have Avery and Amendola to do that, they are looking for the big target.

 

16 (48) – OAK – Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia – Injury history is scary but Al is willing to take risks.

 

17 (49) – JAC – Rahim Moore, FS, UCLA – People get excited about 10 INTs, but numbers like that are as much luck as skill (see the tape).  I still find a lot to like about this guy.  And the need is huge.

 

18 (50) – SD – Christian Ballard, RDE, Iowa – Castillo has declined and the rest of the DL is solid but not spectacular, Ballard is a high motor guy perfect for a 3-4 DE.

 

19 (51) – TB – Quan Sturdivant, MLB, North Carolina – Ruud looks like a goner and in a class where few players are projected as pro MLBs they cannot afford to let Sturdivant slip past.

 

20 (52) – NYG – Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois – I did not want to go RB here but cannot ignore the value of this pick.

 

21 (53) – IND – Quinton Carter, SS, Oklahoma – An extremely overdone pick, but it fits because Indy values the SS and Carter is a good all-around player.

 

22 (54) – PHI – Curtis Brown, CB, Texas – The major needs left are CB and RG, and CB is the value pick here.

 

23 (55) – KC – Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami – This had to be done.  Most high school option teams had #2 WRs with better numbers than Chambers.

 

24 (56) – NO – Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech – The lack of a running game really hurt the Saints last year, Williams has natural ability.

 

25 (57) – SEA – Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado – A lot of rumors that Seattle likes this guy, and he falls on character concerns, and the fact that I don’t think he has great coverage skills.

 

26 (58) – BAL – Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland – They go for the local guy with good character, who complements Boldin perfectly as the deep threat that can open up the underneath, hopefully Boldin or Mason can teach him to run routes.

 

27 (59) – ATL – Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky – Another team with one dominant WR, lots of big guys, no small, quick guys.

 

28 (60) – NE – Sam Acho, OLB, Texas – Looking for a better pass rusher, still could be Cunningham, but Banta-Cain has maxed out his talent.

 

29 (61) – SD – Austin Pettis, WR, Boise State – Not a burner but great hands and good small-area quickness, with the size SD likes.

 

30 (62) – CHI – Benjamin Ijalana, LT, Villanova – They could skip LT once but not twice, Ijalana is popular lately but untested against top competition.

 

31 (63) – PIT – Orlando Franklin, RG, Miami – I like Franklin better at guard than tackle, and he has the size that the Steelers like for their OL.

 

32 (64) – GB – Dontay Moch, WOLB, Nevada – Now they have athletic freaks on both sides.

 

 

 

THIRD ROUND:

 

 

1 (65) – CAR – Drake Nevis, 3DT, LSU – Same skill set as Fairley, just smaller.

 

2 (66) – CIN – Deunta Williams, FS, North Carolina – 2nd rd talent fills a need.

 

3 (67) – DEN – Jordan Todman, RB, Connecticut – Fox is going to demand a stronger run game, Todman is tough for his size.

 

4 (68) – BUF – Mason Foster, SILB/LB, Washington – Another player that can fit 3-4 or 4-3, I think he slips because he is a SLB/WLB tweener.

 

5 (69) – ARI – Brooks Reed, SOLB, Arizona – A larger OLB to complement Porter & Schofield, the athleticism of Clay III.

 

6 (70) – CLE – Jurrell Casey, 3DT, USC – With so many DTs rated highly, some were going to fall.

 

7 (71) – DAL – Brandon Burton, CB, Utah – The highest rated secondary player left on my board, and a good value here.

 

8 (72) – NO – Jabaal Sheard, RDE, Pittsburgh – Another DE for the other side of the line because the need is there and the value fits.

 

9 (73) – HOU – Kenrick Ellis, NT, Hampton – It was just a matter of time until a NT was worth their pick.

 

10 (74) – NE – William Rackley, LG, Lehigh – Another OL?  They have the need.  I was tempted by Wiz here because center could be a future need, but I am just too high on Rackley.

 

11 (75) – DET – Davon House, CB, New Mexico St. – The NFC North is a pass-happy division, Lions brought in a lot of new blood but could still use another potential starter.

 

12 (76) – SF – Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy – May not be the need CB is, but a value pick here that can run the underneath routes.  Harbaugh is not running an offense with Ginn as the #3 WR.

 

13 (77) – TEN – Stefen Wisniewski, C/G, Penn State – The middle of the OL was bad last year, Mawae was missed more than they would like to admit.

 

14 (78) – STL – Shane Vereen, RB, California – Jackson keeps getting hurt and keeps getting older, needs someone to share the load, Vereen should be quick on turf.

 

15 (79) – MIA – Andy Dalton, QB, TCU – I don’t blame Henne, but Miami is not happy, and a 3rd is not too high to risk in case he becomes the backup.  Also have to be afraid the Jags take him next.

 

16 (80) – JAC – Nate Irving, LB, North Carolina St. – Not sure where he’ll play in a 4-3, not sure who loses their job first.  Some flexibility to play “worst man out” here.

 

17 (81) – OAK – John Moffitt, C/G, Wisconsin – Before the Raiders were about speed, they were about attitude.  Moffitt brings that back, as well as filling a major need.

 

18 (82) – SD – Marcus Gilchrist, CB/S, Clemson – Has the CB skills, they at least need a nickel, and preferably someone who can push to start, like Gilchrist.  Can also play FS if Weddle becomes too expensive to keep.

 

19 (83) – NYG – K. J. Wright, SLB, Mississippi St. – Big, athletic LB that can cover, fits their mold and greatest need, reduces reliance on third safety.

 

20 (84) – TB – Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State – Some interesting photos will be taken of the TB backfield duo.  Love this guy, runs hard like Emmitt Smith.

 

21 (85) – PHI – James Carpenter, RG, Alabama – What Reid likes, a tackle converting to guard.

 

22 (86) – KC – Kristofer O’Dowd, C, USC – Wiegmann is threatening to quit before age 45.

 

23 (87) – IND – Sione Fua, 1DT, Stanford – Need to lose the “can't stop the run” label.

 

24 (88) – NO – Colin McCarthy, WLB, Miami – The OLB positions have needed upgrades for some time.  I like this kid, nonstop hustle.

 

25 (89) – SD – Marcus Gilbert, RT, Florida – A passing team needs a RT that can pass block.

 

26 (90) – BAL – Joseph Barksdale, T, LSU – They'll see who plays the left side better, my guess is Oher right now, but Gaither has been written off for a long time.

 

27 (91) – ATL – Lance Kendricks, TE, Wisconsin – No need to get too excited replacing Gonzalez, they find a player with good hands and better blocking skills here.

 

28 (92) – NE – Terrence Toliver, WR, LSU – NE has been scouting a lot of RBs, but in my first foray off the line I find them a big WR to replace Moss.  I like his potential.

 

29 (93) – CHI – Vincent Brown, WR, San Diego St. - The reliable route runner and “go-to guy” that Cutler needs, they have too many athletes and not enough WRs. 

 

30 (94) – NYJ – Chris Conte, FS, California – Their young CBs will be better with good safety play, I have Conte as a value pick here over stronger needs.

 

31 (95) – PIT – Jarvis Jenkins, DE, Clemson – I had a lot of trouble with this pick, defaulted to BPA, youth for the DL.

 

32 (96) – GB – Clint Boling, LG, Georgia – More investment in protecting their franchise player, can play RT if needed if Solder not ready and Clifton gone (Bulaga to LT).

 

33 (97) – CAR – Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville – Filling the biggest needs with this and the next pick, coverage ability over athleticism in a division with possession WRs.

 

 

 

FOURTH ROUND:

 

 

 

1 (98) – CAR – DeMarcus Love, G, Carolina – Slow feet for a tackle but will be fine at guard, has the push for the run game.

 

2 (99) – SEA – Jason Pinkston, G/RT, Pittsburgh – Not a measurables guy but a skilled player that could wind up at several different positions.

 

3 (100) – BUF – Cortez Allen, CB, Citadel – The consensus skill corners are gone and the athletes with potential are on the board, this guy shows the most promise and is the most ready.

 

4 (101) – CIN – Lee Ziemba, RT, Auburn – The end of the Smith experiment, and Roland is just painful to watch, although another tall guy bending low to get Woodley might not be the best idea.  But Ziemba has LT skills if not the speed.

 

5 (102) – CLE – Kendall Hunter, RB, Oklahoma St. - Another little guy paired with a big guy, allows some offensive variety, and can handle pass blocking.

 

6 (103) – ARI – Luke Stocker, TE, Tennessee – The Cards have nothing at TE.  Stocker starts immediately and is a value pick here.

 

7 (104) – PHI – Jaiquawn Jarrett, SS, Temple – Picking the local boy since Mikell seems unlikely to return, hits like Dawkins.

 

8 (105) – HOU – DeAndre McDaniel, SS, Clemson – Going with the value pick here and filling an opening in the starting lineup.

 

9 (106) – MIN – Justin Boren, G, Ohio State – AP had trouble getting holes last year, need a big guy to push some of the big DTs in division.

 

10 (107) – DET – Roy Helu, RB, Nebraska – A bigger back to complement Best, who last year showed he needed some help.

 

11 (108) – SF – Rashad Carmichael, CB, Virginia Tech – The CB need finally filled.

 

12 (109) – TEN – Aldrick Robinson, WR, SMU – On a team filled with big WRs, a smaller guy to get open underneath.

 

13 (110) – DAL – Chris Culliver, FS, South Carolina – I like him better at safety than corner, and they need speed and cover skills deep.

 

14 (111) – MIA – Jake Kirkpatrick, C, TCU – More ammo for the running game and a player I rate higher than most.

 

15 (112) – STL – Robert Sands, S, West Virginia – Spags like those big safeties like Butler, Sands is an upgrade at SS more likely than the new FS, but the athleticism is intriguing.

 

16 (113) – OAK – Ross Homan, WLB, Ohio State – Listening to Raiders fans here who identified a need to upgrade the weakside LB, Homan had college production backed up by a good combine.

 

17 (114) – JAC – Pat Devlin, QB, Delaware – Needs to learn a pro system but a guy I like with good underlying skills.

 

18 (115) – SF – Lawrence Guy, LDE, Arizona State – Could have gone corner again but the DL is getting older and Guy has potential but needs development time.

 

19 (116) – TB – Chimdi Chekwa, CB, Ohio State – I was thinking about corner here before the Talib news broke because I’m not sold that Lewis stays at CB.

 

20 (117) – NYG – Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State – Not sure if they go for a faster CB to help deep coverage or one that is a better in short coverage like Burney.

 

21 (118) – KC – Chris Carter, OLB, Fresno State – An undersized athlete that many people like, would provide a different look from Hali.

 

22 (119) – IND – Shareece Wright, CB, USC – Indy fans may be waiting for their second OL here but I’m following Polian history, there always seems to be new faces competing at CB.

 

23 (120) – PHI – Kendric Burney, CB, North Carolina – There is a need for multiple CBs, they like big OL but are not afraid of small CBs, here there is less size concern because they are looking for a nickel/dime guy,

 

24 (121) – JAC – Greg Little, WR, North Carolina – They get great value here at a position of need, slips a bit because of the lack of experience, but he provides the large target opposite Thomas.

 

25 (122) – BUF – James Brewer, RT, Indiana – Brewer looked very healthy at the combine and has great potential, Fitzpatrick needs a shot with better blocking.

 

26 (123) – BAL – Tyler Sash, SS, Iowa – This is a value pick that improves the position, also considered CB but it could be lose one/sign one in free agency.

 

27 (124) – ATL – Greg Romeus, DE, Pittsburgh – No one told Abraham he is getting old, Romeus has some time to heal as a potential future RDE and is large enough to get some snaps at LDE.  I’m still holding out hope for Sidbury.

 

28 (125) – NE – DeMarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma – NE is scouting RBs hard, they draft a guy used to operating out of a shotgun, can pick up some of Faulk’s roles, but needs to bulk up first.

 

29 (126) – NYJ – Jeremy Kerley, WR, TCU – They lack a true slot-type WR (although Holmes has similar skills), a quick outlet guy that can get open quickly and run with the ball, and they could lose starters to free agency.

 

30 (127) – CHI – Brandon Fusco, C/G, Slippery Rock – Climbs the board a little because of his potential, and he has the size to play guard.

 

31 (128) – PIT – Jerrell Powe, NT, Mississippi – Powe avoids rising simply because he plays NT, worth a shot here to see if he can be groomed to replace Hampton.

 

32 (129) – GB – Buster Skrine, CB, Tennessee-Chattanooga – Elite athlete who can learn from the best, in a situation where he is not needed to play right away.

 

33 (130) – TEN – Steve Schilling, G, Michigan – Still improving the OL and drafting what Munchak knows best.

 

34 (131) – GB – Niles Paul, WR, Nebraska – With Jones’ status in question and Driver aging this become a need, and good value at WR here.  Torn between Salas and Paul, went Paul for special teams play, with Hester, Logan, and Harvin in division.

 

 

 

FIFTH ROUND:

 

 

 

1 (132) – CAR – D. J. Williams, TE, Arkansas – Shockey only has so much left in him, Williams brings a whole new facet to the offense.

 

2 (133) – BUF – Greg Salas, WR, Hawaii – Good route runner and hands, Johnson and Nelson are developing but Evans had an off year, so Salas could become the future go-to guy. Culture shock in store for Salas.

 

3 (134) – CIN – Ugo Chinasa, RDE, Oklahoma St. - With Odom's injuries and Johnson unproven, the Bengals add another player to compete for the important RDE spot.

 

4 (135) – KC – Derek Newton, RT, Arkansas St. - A more athletic player than their existing options at RT.

 

5 (136) – ARI – Tim Barnes, C/G, Missouri – The OL has been a weakness, Barnes has the size to play guard or center, is the top OL available here.

 

6 (137) – CLE – Lawrence Wilson, WLB, Connecticut – When switching from 3-4 to 4-3, the weakside LB is often the one position you will not find on your roster, Fujita played it in NO but is better suited for strongside.

 

7 (138) – HOU – Cheta Ozougwu, OLB, Rice – I really like this guy's potential, quick, local product, needs work.  Probably not an immediate starter, LB positions are probably more fluid than discussed until they see who they have in camp.

 

8 (139) – MIN – Cecil Shorts, WR, Mount Union – Great value here, he will compete for Berrian's starting slot.

 

9 (140) – KC – Jeremy Beal, SILB/OLB, Oklahoma – Bad measurables but good college production, could be tried at several positions.

 

10 (141) – SF – Mark Legree, FS, Appalachian St. - Under-the-radar prospect should push aside Goldson.

 

11 (142) – TEN – Terrell McClain, DT, South Florida – Marks has disappointed and free agency is a concern with the current starters.

 

12 (143) – DAL – Jah Reid, RT, Central Florida – The big size they like, quick feet, replaces Colombo.

 

13 (144) – WAS – Delone Carter, RB, Syracuse – Tough runner is a great value here, a good running game will help Newton.

 

14 (145) – STL – Ray Dominguez, G, Arkansas – They have been scouting guards hard, Dominguez is a power guy that is not a plodder.

 

15 (146) – MIA – Edmund Gates, WR, Abilene Christian – Flat out speed to keep the safeties honest.

 

16 (147) – JAC – Ahmad Black, CB/SS, Florida – Grabbing the local guy, could compete as a nickel CB or push Greene at SS.  Can't believe he fell this far.

 

17 (148) – OAK – Zach Hurd, G, Connecticut – A tall guard to replace Gallery, but more importantly a strong guard that can improve the power game.

 

18 (149) – PHI – Derrick Locke, RB, Kentucky – The team with a million picks grabs a different type of RB.

 

19 (150) – MIN – Douglas Hogue, WLB, Syracuse – Allows them to let Leber go (his money was spent on Greenway), increased speed at the position.

 

20 (151) – TB – Pierre Allen, RDE, Nebraska – The strongest need and a better player than any OL here.

 

21 (152) – IND – Graig Cooper, RB, Miami – Brown finished strong but Addai has been declining and could wind up as a UFA.

 

22 (153) – PHI – Pernell McPhee, LDE, Mississippi St. - With so many picks, they will grab a clear BPA.

 

23 (154) – DET – Tandon Doss, WR, Indiana – Replaces Bryant Johnson as the #3 WR, a tall athlete with potential.  Better value here than OL needs.

 

24 (155) – WAS – Chris Neild, NT, West Virginia – They need an anchor on the Dline, they still have too many 4-3 players in their 3-4.

 

25 (156) – SEA – Chykie Brown, CB, Texas – Another tall, fast CB, the position needs multiple picks.

 

26 (157) – SEA – Cliff Matthews, RDE, South Carolina – An edge pass rusher with great potential.

 

27 (158) – ATL – Terrance Turner, WR, Indiana – Similar to his mate Doss, a player with the desired physical attributes that need to be developed, and room on the roster for him and Cobb.

 

28 (159) – NE – Jalil Brown, FS/CB, Colorado – I see him more as a safety, Meriweather could be leaving and CB depth is useful.

 

29 (160) – CHI – Justin Rogers, CB, Richmond – I'm surprised I dropped him this far, great value here and the position of greatest need left.

 

30 (161) – NYJ – Bruce Miller, OLB, Central Florida – A pass rush specialist to replace Taylor, high motor guy.

 

31 (162) – PIT – Joseph Lefeged, FS, Rutgers – Clark can be upgraded, Lefeged is fast and a good hitter, always important in Pittsburgh.

 

32 (163) – GB – Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia – A change-of-pace back since they have so many big RBs.

 

33 (164) – BAL – Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas St. - Many will be surprised to see him this far down, but I see him as too skinny for his height and not fast enough.

 

34 (165) – BAL – Ricky Stanzi, QB, Iowa – Ravens are on the top of my list for needing a backup QB.

 

 

 

SIXTH ROUND:

 

 

 

1 (166) – CAR – Richard Sherman, CB, Stanford

 

2 (167) – CIN – Ronald Johnson, WR, USC

 

3 (168) – CLE – Virgil Green, TE, Nevada

 

4 (169) – BUF – Andrew Jackson, G, Fresno State

 

5 (170) – CLE – Chris Hairston, RT, Clemson

 

6 (171) – ARI – Jarriel King, LT, South Carolina

 

7 (172) – MIN – Ian Williams, 1DT, Notre Dame

 

8 (173) – SEA – Willie Smith, RT, East Carolina

 

9 (174) – SF – Adam Grant, G/RT, Arizona

 

10 (175) – TEN – Anthony Sherman, FB, Connecticut

 

11 (176) – DAL – Chris White, ILB, Mississippi State

 

12 (177) – WAS – Dwayne Harris, WR, East Carolina

 

13 (178) – HOU – David Carter, DLE, UCLA

 

14 (179) – MIA – Jordan Cameron, TE, USC

 

15 (180) – BAL – Brandon Hogan, CB, West Virginia

 

16 (181) – OAK – Lee Smith, TE, Marshall

 

17 (182) – JAC – Adrian Moten, WLB, Maryland

 

18 (183) – SD – Kelvin Sheppard, ILB, LSU

 

19 (184) – ARI – Mark Herzlich, SILB, Boston College

 

20 (185) – NYG – Henry Hynoski, FB, Pittsburgh

 

21 (186) – DEN – Rob Housler, TE, Florida Atlantic

 

22 (187) – TB – Jeron Johnson, SS, Boise State

 

23 (188) – IND – Zack Williams, C/G, Washington State

 

24 (189) – DEN – Scott Lutrus, SLB/MLB, Connecticut

 

25 (190) – SF – Brandon Bair, RDE, Oregon

 

26 (191) – BAL – Casey Matthews, ILB, Oregon

 

27 (192) – ATL – Korey Lindsey, CB, Southern Illinois

 

28 (193) – NE – Owen Marecic, FB/ILB, Stanford

 

29 (194) – NYJ – Josh Thomas, CB, Buffalo

 

30 (195) – CHI – Mike Mohammed, SLB/MLB, California

 

31 (196) – PIT – Thomas Keiser, OLB, Stanford

 

32 (197) – GB – Sealver Siliga, DE, Utah

 

33 (198) – NYG – Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Ohio State

 

34 (199) – KC – Greg McElroy, QB, Alabama

 

35 (200) – MIN – Shiloh Keo, SS, Idaho

 

36 (201) – SD – Da’rell Scott, RB, Maryland

 

37 (202) – NYG – Cedric Thornton, DT, Southern Arkansas

 

38 (203) – CAR – Alex Green, RB, Hawaii

 

 

 

SEVENTH ROUND:

 

 

 

1 (204) – GB – T. J. Yates, QB, North Carolina

 

2 (205) – DET – Darius Morris, RG, Temple

 

3 (206) – BUF – Nathan Enderle, QB, Idaho

 

4 (207) – CIN – Taiwan Jones, RB, Eastern Washington

 

5 (208) – NYJ – Tori Gurley, WR, South Carolina

 

6 (209) – SEA – Stanley Havili, FB, USC

 

7 (210) – ATL – Martin Parker, DT, Richmond

 

8 (211) – SF – Brandyn Thompson, CB, Boise State

 

9 (212) – TEN – DeJon Gomes, CB/S, Nebraska

 

10 (213) – WAS – Johnathan Freeny, OLB, Rutgers

 

11 (214) – HOU – Steven Friday, OLB, Virginia Tech

 

12 (215) – MIN – Ricardo Lockette, WR, Fort Valley State

 

13 (216) – STL – Will Hill, FS, Florida

 

14 (217) – MIA – Vai Taua, RB, Nevada

 

15 (218) – MIA – Harold Ayodele, NT, Emporia State

 

16 (219) – OAK – DeMarcus Van Dyke, CB, Miami

 

17 (220) – DAL – Dion Lewis, RB, Pittsburgh

 

18 (221) – NYG – Andrew Rich, SS/LB, BYU

 

19 (222) – TB – Zane Taylor, C, Utah

 

20 (223) – KC- Jamie Harper, RB, Clemson

 

21 (224) – WAS – David Arkin, G, Missouri State

 

22 (225) – BAL – Armon Binns, WR, Cincinnati

 

23 (226) – NO – Blaine Sumner, 1DT, Colorado School of Mines

 

24 (227) – PHI – DeAndre Brown, WR, Southern Mississippi

 

25 (228) – STL – Brian Rolle, WLB, Ohio State

 

26 (229) – ATL – Jerrard Tarrant, S, Georgia Tech

 

27 (230) – ATL – Ryan Winterswyk, DE, Boise State

 

28 (231) – SF – Ryan Whalen, WR, Stanford

 

29 (232) – PIT – Nick Bellore, ILB, Central Michigan

 

30 (233) – GB – Eddie Jones, OLB, Texas

 

31 (234) – SD – Julius Thomas, TE, Portland State

 

32 (235) – MIA – Curt Porter, RT, Jacksonville State

 

33 (236) – MIN – Charlie Gantt, TE, Michigan State

 

34 (237) – PHI – Joshua Portis, QB, California (PA)

 

35 (238) – TB – Daniel Kilgore, G, Appalachian State

 

36 (239) – SF – Charles Clay, FB/TE, Tulsa

 

37 (240) – PHI – J. T. Thomas, LB, West Virginia

 

38 (241) – OAK – Mario Fannin, RB, Auburn

 

39 (242) – SEA – Jermale Hines, S, Ohio St.

 

40 (243) – NO – Akeem Dent, SLB, Georgia

 

41 (244) – CAR – Byron Stingily, T, Louisville

 

42 (245) – BUF – Eric Hagg, S, Nebraska

 

43 (246) – CIN – Laupepa Letuli, G, Hawaii

 

44 (247) – DEN – Byron Maxwell, CB/S, Clemson

 

45 (248) – CLE – Josh Bynes, MLB, Auburn

 

46 (249) – ARI – Jeff Maehl, WR, Oregon

 

47 (250) – SF – Ryan Bartholomew, C, Syracuse

 

48 (251) – TEN – Daniel Hardy, TE, Idaho

 

49 (252) – DAL – Da’Norris Searcy, SS, North Carolina

 

50 (253) – WAS – Karl Klug, RDE, Iowa

 

51 (254) – HOU – Chris Rucker, CB, Michigan State

 

 

 

It looks like AdamJT13 has abandoned his excellent work in predicting compensatory picks.  Since I want to start working on my final 7-round mock now, I decided to look at slotting comp picks myself.  I claim no credit for this work, as I did nothing original.  I shamelessly used AdamJT13's publicly posted guidelines as best as I could.  You can find his work at adamjt13.blogspot.com.  If you are unfamiliar with his work, the basics that affect comp picks are: 

1.  Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs are not counted. 

2. Each player signed cancels out one player lost. 

3.  The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the total value of the contract signed.

I will first list the comp picks awarded and then provide the related team free agent activity at the end.  I am not explaining teams that did not get comp picks to save time.  But if you want an explanation or additional information for any of the 32 teams, let me know.  I also need your help.  If you know that one the players listed in the explanation section was cut by his previous team or was an untendered restricted free agent, please let me know.  They should not be in the comp pick analysis.  I relied on what information I could find.

I awarded 19 normal comp picks.  I am fairly confident in this number, but less confident in their round placement, because I am not sure how much the amount of playing time alters the placement by salary.  AJ Feeley did not take a snap, maybe that knocks him back a round.  Kampman and Vanden Bosch had the same contracts, but Kampman missed significant time.  The order of picks inside the late rounds is a mystery to me; AdamJT13 seemed to indicate playing time was more of a factor.  I awarded 2 net value picks (value difference between player lost and signed).  Since 32 comp picks must be awarded, that leaves 11 additional picks at the end, which follow the first 11 picks of the first round.

 

Compensatory Picks Awarded (round - team - player)

3 - Carolina - Julius Peppers

3 - Tennessee - Kyle Vanden Bosch (possibly a 4)

4 - Green Bay - Aaron Kampman  (possibly a 3)

4 - Seattle - Nate Burleson (possibly a 5)

5 - Baltimore - Justin Bannan

5 - New York Giants - Fred Robbins (possibly a 6)

6 - Miami - Nate Jones

6 - Minnesota - Chester Taylor

6 - San Diego - Brandon Manumaleuna

6 - Minnesota - Artis Hicks

6 - New York Giants - David Carr

6 - Carolina - AJ Feeley

6 - Kansas City - Wade Smith

7 - Philadelphia - Sean Jones

7 - Philadelphia - Jason Babin

7 - San Diego - Kassim Osgood

7 - New York Jets - Jay Feely

7 - Tampa Bay - Jimmy Wilkerson

7 - San Francisco - Arnaz Battle

 

7 - New Orleans

7 - New England

 

7 - Carolina

7 - Denver

7 - Buffalo

7 - Cincinnati

7 - Arizona

7 - Cleveland

7 - San Francisco

7 - Tennessee

7 - Dallas

7 - Washington

7 - Houston

 

Explanations (with contract signed):

Baltimore - Lost:  Bannan (5 yr $22 million), Edwards (4 yr $18 million)

                        Signed:  Redding (2 yr $6 million)

Carolina - Lost:  Peppers (6 yr $91.5 million), Feeley (2 yr $6 million)

Green Bay - Lost:  Kampman (4 yr $26 million)

Kansas City - Lost:  Smith (4 yr $12 million)

Miami - Lost:  Taylor (2 yr $13 million), Jones (4 yr 13.6 million)

                        Signed:  Dansby (5 yr $43 million)

Minnesota - Lost:  Taylor (4 yr 12.5 million), Hicks (3 yr $9 million)

New York Giants - Lost:  Robbins (3 yr $12 million), Carr (2 yr $6.2 million)

New York Jets - Lost:  Alan Faneca (2 yr $5 million), Feely (2 yr $3.5 million)

                                    Signed:  Taylor (2 yr $13 million)

Philadelphia - Lost:  Babin (1 yr $1 million), Jones (2 yr $3 million)

San Diego - Lost:  Manumaleuna (5 yr $15 million), Osgood (3 yr $6.675 million)

San Francisco - Lost:  Pashos (3 yr $10.5 million), Battle (3 yr $3.9 million)

                                    Signed: Carr (2 yr $6.2 million)

Seattle - Lost:  Burleson (5 yr $25 million), Redding (2 yr $6 million)

                        Signed:  Hamilton (1 yr $2 million)

Tampa Bay - Lost:  Allen (3 yr $6.25 million), Wilkerson (1 yr $1 million)

                        Signed:  Jones (2 yr $3 million)

Tennessee - Lost:  Vanden Bosch (4 yr $26 million), Crumpler (2 yr $2.4 million)

                        Signed:  Babin (1 yr $1 million)

 

Net Value Explanations:

New Orleans - Lost:  Fujita (3 yr $14 million)

                        Signed:  Wilkerson (1 yr $1 million)

New England - Lost:  Watson (3 yr $12 million)

                        Signed:  Crumpler (2 yr $2.4 million)

 

Other Interesting Tidbits:

New York Giants and Seattle saved their comp picks by signing players (Bulluck and Pitts) after the end of the free agency period on July 23.

Houston lost their 3 (from Dunta Robinson) by signing Wade Smith and Neil Rackers.

Arizona led the league in qualifying free agency transactions and prediction difficulty.  They lost their 3 (from Karlos Dansby) by signing more players than they lost.

 

If you think I made any errors or omissions, please let me know.

 

 

For those of you not obsessed with the draft, you may not be familiar with the work of AdamJT13.  He is, as far as I know, the only person that has ever done original work to figure out the method the NFL uses to award compensatory draft picks.  Since his blog is quiet this year, I decided to use the information he posted to make my own educated guesses about comp picks. 

And lo and behold, it looks like the Giants should get 2 picks!  I believe that we will get a 5th rounder for Fred Robbins and a 6th rounder for David Carr.  In the worst-case scenario we should get a 6th and 7th.

Both players are eligible for consideration because they were unrestricted free agents that were not cut by the Giants.  Salary is the primary factor in determining value, followed by playing time.  Robbins signed with St. Louis for 3 years / $12 million, which is right on AdamJT13's borderline of 5th/6th round value.  The fact that Robbins started all 16 games should give him a 5th round value.  Carr signed with San Fran for 2 years / $6.2 million, which is in the middle of the 6th round value segment, which should give us breathing room because Carr only played in one game.

And now we give Reese a pat on the back.  You lose a potential comp pick if you sign an eligible player during the free agent signing period, which last year ended on July 23.  We signed Keith Bulluck on July 24.  This timing saves us the Carr pick, as Bulluck's $1.1 million salary would have taken off the lower of our two picks. 

No other players figured in the comp plan equations.  Ineligible players were as follows:

Kevin Dockery - non-tendered RFA

CC Brown - non-tendered RFA

Practice squadders - no rights

Bryan Kehl - cut

Danny Clark - cut by new team (Houston)

Jim Sorgi - cut by Colts

Deon Grant - cut by Seattle

Antrel Rolle - cut by Arizona

Shawn Andrews - cut by Philly

Brian Jackson - cut by Jets

Jamon Meredith - cut by everybody

Devin Thomas - cut by Carolina

Michael Clayton - cut by Tampa Bay

This started as a 4-round mock, but ENs and Montell shamed me into doing 5.  The 5th round was an easy round, actually, because the available talent really influenced the picks.  Explanations for the first round only, after that you have to ask.

I have QBs going early, DTs going late.  I'm just not that enamoured with Fairley.  Started good with RB, but many fell late, as always happens in mocks.  With such a large pool of second-tier CBs, some of them went later than they should also.  There is a lot of demand for OL.  Not a great year for the OL, but I think the RT class is solid.

Please excuse the formatting, I start these in Excel, and I never seem to get it over 100% intact

 

 

1ST ROUND:

CAROLINA - A.J. Green, WR - The best player in the draft. Despite the promise shown by LaFell and Gettis, there is no comparison. Instantly makes Clausen better.

 

DENVER - Patrick Peterson, CB - Elite athlete, he may give up some catches but he is never beat. More worried about Cox than Bailey, the NFL takes his charges seriously. Not surprising, Cox had character concerns coming into last year's draft.

 

BUFFALO - Robert Quinn, OLB - The other top athlete at the top of the draft, the opposite of Maybin. Will obtain his needed development from Merriman, can play 4-3 if they switch back. Can play the run as well as rush the passer.

 

CINCINNATI - Da'Quan Bowers, DE - Cincy picks production instead of potential this time. Dunlap stays on the left side, goes inside on passing downs. Palmer is given another chance.

 

ARIZONA - Jake Locker, QB - The QB most ready to play, they are not going to take a chance on another team's discards again.

 

CLEVELAND - Julio Jones, WR - Talent and need match, I have Jones rated higher than any DL here.

 

SAN FRANCISCO - Prince Amukamara, CB - QB is a major need, but I don't think they like anyone here.

 

TENNESSEE - Ryan Mallett, QB - Tennessee goes for the traditional pocket passer, similar to Collins but with a stronger arm. He's going to break fingers.

 

DALLAS - Marcel Dareus, DE - Not the biggest need, but Dallas picks the best player left, a Day 1 starter.

 

WASHINGTON - Blaine Gabbert, QB - Big arm, mobile, reminds me of so many Denver QBs. With the Shanahans' control issues, they avoid the star power of Newton.

 

HOUSTON - Akeem Ayers, OLB - Barwin will rush the passer and Ayers will play more coverage. I think this is early for Paea, and think he is more of a DT than NT, despite Phillips having Ratliff in Dallas.

 

MINNESOTA - Cam Newton, QB - I think they will still chase a veteran QB like McNabb for now, but they want a long-term solution at QB as well.

 

DETROIT - Brendan Harris, CB - The best fit of the top players left, but I also think there is an outside chance that Ingram goes here.

 

ST. LOUIS - Nick Fairley, DT - Spags likes DTs that can pressure the QB, and he is a great value here.

 

MIAMI - Mark Ingram, RB - They had their greatest success in recent years when they could run the ball.

 

JACKSONVILLE - Ryan Kerrigan, DE - No major need players here, he will be the future replacement for Kampman. Very consistent college production, got to the QB every game last year.

 

NEW ENGLAND - Cameron Jordan, DE - A playmaker that they used to have with Seymour, a handful to block.

 

SAN DIEGO - Von Miller, OLB - I could also see a DE here, but it's hard to pass up a pass rusher used to the OLB position.

 

NEW YORK GIANTS - Gabe Carimi, RT - A player that fits the Giants power run game.

 

TAMPA BAY - Adrian Clayborn, DE - They need help at LDE and RDE, pass rush and run defense, they would prefer Kerrigan but will take the next best option.

 

KANSAS CITY - Jonathan Baldwin, WR - No production at WR except for Bowe.

 

INDIANAPOLIS - Anthony Castonzo, LT - Ready to start and skills fit Indy's system.

 

PHILADELPHIA - Kyle Rudolph, TE - I did not want to reach for a need here, instead found a big target for Vick to match with the small, speedy WRs, in a similar spot to where Gresham and Pettigrew went.

 

NEW ORLEANS - Mikel LeShoure, RB - The offense had problems with an inconsistent running game this year, LeShoure's variety of skills might come in handy if Bush is a salary casualty. Bailey and Beal also considered.

 

SEATTLE - Allen Bailey, LDE - Gives them a pass rush presence on the other side of the line, could also be a rush specialist at DT on passing downs.

 

BALTIMORE - Justin Houston, OLB - It looks like Kindle will never play, gives them a rusher to eventually replace Suggs and his high price tag, looks very comfortable as an OLB.

 

ATLANTA - Derek Sherrod, LT - They have the luxury of picking a developmental player, someone much more athletic than Baker. Torrey Smith also a possibility, but they seem to like Jenkins for some reason.

 

NEW ENGLAND - Stefen Wisniewski, G/C - The replacement for Mankins who could also slide over to replace Koppen someday.

 

GREEN BAY - DeMarcus Love, T - Will compete with Bulaga for the left tackle slot, loser plays right. Tauscher is a medical retire, maybe Clifton plays one more year while the young guys learn. Had Houston to them before the playoffs changed the order.

 

NEW YORK JETS - Cameron Heyward, DE - Strong player with pursuit ability, will be groomed to replace Ellis and will cover DeVito on passing downs now. Watt or Beal were other thoughts.

 

CHICAGO - Mike Pouncey, OL - I'm leaving the position open. With some additional training, he might make it as a center. With his quickness, I could even see him at RT. But he should at least be able to force Garza into retirement. Love would be another great versatile pick for them if he falls.

 

PITTSBURGH - Jimmy Smith, CB - Pitt's corners were better this year than last, but they could still use young talent for the future. I don't see Paea as a NT for them and don't like Cannon as a guard for them in the first. Watt would be my second choice.

 

2ND ROUND: NE	Jeremy Beal, OLB
BUF	Tryon Smith, T
CIN	Stephen Paea, DT
DEN	Drake Nevis, DT
CLE	J.J. Watt, LDE
ARI	Aldon Smith, OLB
TEN	Jake Kirkpatrick, C
DAL	Marcus Cannon, RT/G
WAS	Jason Pinkston, G
HOU	Rahim Moore, FS
MIN	Nate Solder, LT
DET	Martez Wilson, LB
SF	Pat Devlin, QB
DEN	Bruce Carter, WLB
STL	Torrey Smith, WR
OAK	Greg Jones, WLB
JAC	Aaron Williams, CB
SD	Brandon Burton, CB
TB	Quan Sturdivant, MLB
NYG	Ryan Williams, RB
IND	Tyler Sash, SS
PHI	John Moffitt, G/C
KC	Jerrell Powe, NT
NO	Mason Foster, SLB
SEA	Marvin Austin, DT
BAL	Titus Young, WR
ATL	Randall Cobb, WR/RS
NE	Rodney Hudson, G
SD	Christian Ballard, DE
CHI	Jurrell Casey, DT
GB	Dontay Moch, OLB
PIT	Benjamin Ijalana, G/RT
3RD ROUND: CAR	Corey Liuget, DT
CIN	DeAndre McDaniel, FS
DEN	Jordan Todman, RB
BUF	Luke Stocker, TE
ARI	Joseph Barksdale, LT
CLE	Muhammad Wilkerson, DT
DAL	Deunta Williams, FS
NO	Sione Fua, DT
HOU	Kenrick Ellis, NT
NE	Ahmad Black, FS/CB
DET	Kristofer O'Dowd, C/G
SF	Jerrel Jernigan, WR
TEN	Mark Herzlich, LB
STL	Shane Vereen, RB
MIA	Orlando Franklin, G
JAC	Ras-I Dowling, FS/CB
OAK	Danny Watkins, G
SD	Leonard Hankerson, WR
NYG	Robert Sands, SS/SLB
TB	Greg Romeus, RDE
PHI	Davon House, CB
KC	Marcus Gilbert, RT
IND	Jarvis Jenkins, DT
NO	Sam Acho, RDE
SD	Lee Ziemba, RT
BAL	Johnny Patrick, CB
ATL	D.J. Williams, TE
NE	Austin Pettis, WR
CHI	Curtis Brown, CB
NYJ	Jaiquawn Jarrett, S
GB	Greg Little, WR
PIT	Phil Taylor, NT
4TH ROUND: CAR	Stephen Schilling, G
SEA	Chimdi Chekwa, CB
BUF	Andrew Dalton, QB
CIN	Christopher Hairston, RT
CLE	James Carpenter, RT
ARI	Rashad Carmichael, CB
PHI	Clint Boling, G/RT
HOU	Dwayne Harris, WR
MIN	Quinton Carter, S
DET	Lawrence Wilson, WLB
SF	Jabaal Sheard, OLB
TEN	Lance Kendricks, TE
DAL	Justin Boren, G
MIA	Ronald Johnson, WR/RS
STL	K.J. Wright, SLB
OAK	Justin Rogers, CB
JAC	Greg McElroy, QB
SF	Lawrence Guy, DE
TB	DeMarco Murray, RB
NYG	Marcus Gilchrist, CB/FS/RS
KC	Christian Ponder, QB
IND	Jacquizz Rodgers, RB
PHI	Kendric Burney, CB
JAC	Nate Irving, LB
BUF	Colin McCarthy, ILB
BAL	Tim Barnes, C
ATL	Terrance Toliver, WR
NE	Daniel Thomas, RB
NYJ	Steven Friday, OLB
CHI	DeAndre Brown, WR
GB	Brandyn Thompson, CB
PIT	Tejay Johnson, FS
5TH ROUND: CAR	Shareece Wright, CB
BUF	Kelvin Sheppard, ILB
CIN	Colin Kaepernick, QB
TB	Will Rackley, G
ARI	Jordan Cameron, TE
CLE	Kendall Hunter, RB
HOU	Korey Lindsey, CB
MIN	Will Hill, S
DET	Delone Carter, RB
SF	Dejon Gomes, FS/CB
TEN	Andrew Jackson, G
DAL	Adam Grant, RT/G
WAS	Vincent Brown, WR
STL	Cliff Matthews, RDE
MIA	Alex Linnenkohl, C
JAC	Tandon Doss, WR
OAK	Casey Matthews, LB
PHI	Noel Devine, RB
MIN	Laupepa Letuli, G
TB	Jah Reid, RT
IND	Brandon Fusco, C/G
PHI	David Carter, DT
KC	Graig Cooper, RB
WAS	Ian Williams, NT
SEA	Derek Hall, RT
BAL	James Brewer, RT
ATL	Pernell McPhee, LDE
NE	Chris Culliver, FS/CB/RS
CHI	Derek Newton, T
NYJ	Jeremy Kerley, WR/RS
GB	Ricky Stanzi, QB
PIT	Brandon Bair, DE

 

The college bowl season is in full swing.  But how do you choose which games to watch?  I'd suggest doing some advance scouting for the draft.  See which players you would like to be Giants.  So with that in mind, here are my suggestions for bowl games from tonight through this weekend with a list of a few possible Giants in them.  I also added in some other prominent players that will go early to other teams.

 

Tonight (12/30):

NEBRASKA VS. WASHINGTON

NEBRASKA:

Alex Henery, K/P - He kicks.  He punts.  He leaps over tall buildings in a single bound.  Best kicker in the draft, maybe the best punter.  68-76 lifetime on FGs, with a long of 57.  30 punts inside the 20 last year.

Lavonte David, LB - At 6-1 215, he will be a SS in the NFL.  Perfect for the Deon Grant S/LB tweener role.  A junior that may return for his senior year.

Niles Paul, WR/KR/PR - Since the Giants always seem to value size, this could be a guy considered as a late round returner, also about 6-1 215.

Roy Helu, RB - Mid- to late round prospect

Prince Amukamara, CB - Likely 1st round pick, could wind up in Dallas.  Could play safety.

Jared Crick, DT - Monster strength, could also play 3-4 DE

Eric Hagg, S, DeJon Gomes, CB/S - late round backup picks

WASHINGTON:

Jake Locker, QB - One of the top QBs in the draft, could get a look from Washington.  Very inconsistent.

Nate Williams, S - Could get a look in the mid- to late rounds.

 

NORTH CAROLINA VS. TENNESSEE

NORTH CAROLINA:

Bruce Carter, LB - Injured and not playing.  Crap.  ACL tear is a concern.

Quan Sturdivant, MLB - For all the Goff upgraders out there, he may be the top MLB in the draft.

Kendric Burney, CB - Good quickness, but would the Giants consider a guy 5-9?

Deunta Williams, S - Big guy around 6-2 215, having a very poor year.

TENNESSEE:

Luke Stocker TE - One of the top TEs in the draft, big body, good hands

 

 

Saturday, January 1:

FLORIDA VS. PENN STATE

FLORIDA:

Marcus Gilbert, RT - 6-5 320, played a little LT and G, but not really the LT type.

Mike Pouncey, G - Twin brother of the Steelers' center, did not have much luck trying to play center earlier this year.  Not as talented as his brother, but still a top draft prospect.

Ahmad Black, S - Rising up the draft boards, but maybe not for the Giants at 5-9.

Will Hill, S - A junior that may not come out, local Jersey product

Janoris Jenkins, CB - Hurt shoulder and not playing, but could be a 1st rounder if he comes out as a junior.

PENN STATE:

Stefen Wisniewski, C - Possibly the top center in the draft, uncle played guard for the Raiders.

 

WISCONSIN VS. TCU

WISCONSIN:

Gabe Carimi, LT - 6-7 320, mauler.  Concerns about foot speed have many projecting him at RT, but a great hand punch slows down the outside rush.  Top run-blocking tackle in the draft.

John Moffit, LG - 6-5 320, another big powerful blocker.  Played some center at Wisconsin, so the Giants could have interest because of that.

JJ Watt, DE - A big guy at 6-6 285, has been flying up draft boards because of his performance this year.  Hustles every play.  Could see a lot of interest as a 3-4 DE.

TCU:

Marcus Cannon, LT - At 6-5 350, is probably going to be a RT or G in the NFL.  But quicker than people give him credit for, he will be very attractive to our competitors the Eagles and Cowboys.

Jake Kirkpatrick, C - One of the top centers in the draft.

 

OKLAHOMA VS. CONNECTICUT:

OKLAHOMA:

Travis Lewis, LB - With Carter's injury is likely to be the top LB taken in the draft.  Oklahoma likes to move him around to let him make plays.

Quinton Carter, FS - Expected to be a middle round talent similar to Jones last year

DeMarco Murray, RB - One of those good-at-all-things-expert-at-none players, I would compare him to Tiki.  Can block and catch.

Jeremy Beal, DE/OLB - Pass rusher expected to go in early rounds, not likely to Giants.

Ryan Broyles, WR/PR - Will be picked as a WR before we could nab him as a returner, may return for another year.

CONNECTICUT:

Jordan Todman, RB - A smaller back (5-9 190) that may return for his senior year, but a guy with tons of production that is hard to catch.

 

Missed this one originally:

Michigan State vs. Alabama

MICHIGAN STATE:

Greg Jones, MLB - Rorschach's least favorite player, can play MLB or WLB and has put up big tackling numbers over the last few years, a 2nd round player that could push into the 1st with a good postseason.

 

ALABAMA:

Mark Barron, S - A big hitter that played a very disciplined 2-deep zone safety this year, a 2nd-3rd rounder.

Donta Hightower, ILB - A huge body around 260 lbs., fills the gap like Harry Carson.  Not fit for a 4-3.

Mark Ingram, RB - The son of our ex-WR, best RB in the draft.

Greg McElroy, QB - Will get a look somewhere as a backup QB.

Julio Jones, WR - Size and speed, should be picked early in the 1st round.  If he falls, maybe the Giants bite as a BPA pick.

Marcel Dareus, DE (3-4) - Many believe he is a Top 10 pick, could play DT in a 4-3.

So after Steve_Chiefs posted a 7-rounder from Drafttek here based on his own Chiefs picks, I became interested in how the picks were generated.  I thought that the idea of a more professional, unbiased, automated draft sounded interesting.  So I looked at how it was set up.  They have 32 people there that provide the "need" rating for their team, that in concert with their player ratings creates the draft.  But I found I disagreed with their need ratings more than the player ratings.  They have Indy as the most likely team to reach for a need.  Several times.  Pittsburgh with a demand for a center.  The Jets with zero need for a WR despite the fact that both starters are free agents.  Numerous ratings seem to have been based on this season's injury issues, as if none of the injured players were ever going to play again.

So I went back through this site to find the team needs that you have posted.  The division team needs fanposts were very useful for half of the teams, as was the 32-team QB analysis fanpost.  I completely rewrote the drafttek need chart.  I tried to defer to BPA more than need, creating almost a two-tiered system where several positions were listed as strong needs and several were listed as lesser needs.  The result is below.  In general, for those do not know the system, the CRI of P1 represents the strongest need, decreasing in intensity to P6.  I only had one P1 (Arizona QB).  The delta numbers reflect how far the player has been picked from where drafttek has them on their big board.  The higher the need rating, the further down the big board they will look for the position.

The needs ratings are absent for rounds 5+.  I found that some computer error mangled the needs ratings beyond recognition.  Rounds 5 & 6 I had to heavily manually modify because of this.  Drafttek really wanted NE to pick 2+ TEs again this year.  They also gave me a lot of problems with Cincy every time I ran the mock.  Biased programming?  I used their rankings of players, except for QB where I exercised a little discretion.  They have Kaepernick rated very high, I had to work to move him back a little, I stuck him with NE because they have a zillion picks and can afford the chance.  They have RBs and ILBs rated higher than most people want them, so some teams got those positions earlier than they wanted.  Interior O-line and CBs were rated lowly, so many teams that had those wants missed out on them.  Beyond the usuals  in rounds 1 & 2, they had few CBs with mid-round ratings.

I edited the position labels a little to show why I found those players acceptable in their spots.  The drafttek site draft can separate LT from RT, but the public one cannot.  One of several features they use but the public cannot.  I also found it very annoying you cannot save anything, so my edited needs chart is gone.  I won't be doing this again.  Drafftek is a great concept, but needs more finishing touches on the programming level and better sources for rating team needs.

 

Round	Pick	Team	Selection	Psn	School	CRI	Delta	ReachValue
1	1	Carolina	Andrew Luck	QB	Stanford	P1	0	Value
1	2	Cincinnati	A.J. Green	WR	Georgia	P3	-6	Reach
1	3	Denver	Nick Fairley	DE34	Auburn	P2	1	Value
1	4	Detroit	Prince Amukamara	CB	Nebraska	P3	1	Value
1	5	Buffalo	Robert Quinn	OLB34	North Carolina	P3	-4	Reach
1	6	Arizona	Patrick Peterson	CB	LSU	P3	-1	Reach
1	7	Dallas	Da'Quan Bowers	DE34	Clemson	P3	3	Value
1	8	Tennessee	Bruce Carter	OLB43	North Carolina	P2	-3	Reach
1	9	San Francisco	Marcell Dareus	DE34	Alabama	P3	3	Value
1	10	Washington	Cameron Newton	QB	Auburn	P3	-2	Reach
1	11	Cleveland	Julio Jones	WR	Alabama	P1	-4	Reach
1	12	Houston	Brandon Harris	CB	Miami (FL)	P3	-10	Reach
1	13	Seattle	Derek Sherrod	RT	Mississippi State	P3	3	Value
1	14	Minnesota	Akeem Ayers	OLB43	UCLA	P6	-4	Reach
1	15	St Louis	Cameron Jordan	DE43	California	P3	2	Value
1	16	New England	Anthony Castonzo	LT	Boston College	P3	2	Value
1	17	Miami	Mark Ingram	RB	Alabama	P2	12	Value
1	18	Indianapolis	DeMarcus Love	LT	Arkansas	P3	-3	Reach
1	19	Kansas City	Justin Blackmon	WR	Oklahoma State	P2	-1	Reach
1	20	San Diego	Von Miller	OLB34	Texas A&M	P3	-6	Reach
1	21	Tampa Bay	Ryan Kerrigan	DE43	Purdue	P2	-10	Reach
1	22	Jacksonville	Janoris Jenkins	CB	Florida	P3	-11	Reach
1	23	Green Bay	Justin Houston	OLB34	Georgia	P2	-6	Reach
1	24	Chicago	Gabe Carimi	OT	Wisconsin	P3	-6	Reach
1	25	NY Giants	Greg Jones	OLB43	Michigan State	P3	2	Value
1	26	NY Jets	Adrian Clayborn	DE34	Iowa	P2	10	Value
1	27	Philadelphia	Marcus Cannon	OG	TCU	P2	-8	Reach
1	28	Baltimore	Michael Floyd	WR	Notre Dame	P3	-8	Reach
1	29	New Orleans	J.J. Watt	LDE43	Wisconsin	P3	4	Value
1	30	Pittsburgh	Stephen Paea	NT	Oregon State	P3	2	Value
1	31	Atlanta	Kyle Rudolph	TE	Notre Dame	P3	14	Value
1	32	New England	Stefen Wisniewski	OG/OC	Penn State	P3	-2	Reach
2	33	New England	Cameron Heyward	DE34	Ohio State	P3	-6	Reach
2	34	Cincinnati	Ryan Mallett	QB	Arkansas	P4	10	Value
2	35	Denver	Corey Liuget	NT	Illinois	P2	-13	Reach
2	36	Detroit	Jason Pinkston	OG	Pittsburgh	P2	-1	Reach
2	37	Buffalo	Nate Solder	OT	Colorado	P3	-10	Reach
2	38	Arizona	Jake Locker	QB	Washington	P1	-39	Reach
2	39	Dallas	Ahmad Black	FS	Florida	P3	1	Value
2	40	Tennessee	Jimmy Smith	CB	Colorado	P2	-11	Reach
2	41	San Francisco	Ryan Broyles	WRslot	Oklahoma	P5	-3	Reach
2	42	Washington	Allen Bailey	DE34	Miami (FL)	P3	-1	Reach
2	43	Cleveland	Kendall Hunter	RBC	Oklahoma State	P4	1	Value
2	44	Houston	Travis Lewis	OLB43	Oklahoma	P4	12	Value
2	45	Seattle	Rodney Hudson	OG	Florida State	P3	-13	Reach
2	46	Minnesota	Mark Barron	S	Alabama	P2	-10	Reach
2	47	St Louis	Drake Nevis	DT43	LSU	P3	7	Value
2	48	Oakland	Jake Kirkpatrick	OC	TCU	P3	-7	Reach
2	49	Denver	Mikel LeShoure	RB	Illinois	P4	30	Value
2	50	Indianapolis	Shane Vereen	RB	California	P4	23	Value
2	51	Kansas City	Jerrell Powe	NT	Mississippi	P3	-16	Reach
2	52	San Diego	Torrey Smith	WR	Maryland	P3	-2	Reach
2	53	Tampa Bay	Quan Sturdivant	OLB43	North Carolina	P3	4	Value
2	54	Jacksonville	Tyler Sash	FS	Iowa	P3	-3	Reach
2	55	Green Bay	Orlando Franklin	OT	Miami (FL)	P2	-11	Reach
2	56	Chicago	Brandon Burton	CB	Utah	P5	-6	Reach
2	57	NY Giants	Davon House	CB	New Mexico State	P3	-22	Reach
2	58	NY Jets	Jonathan Baldwin	WR	Pittsburgh	P3	-7	Reach
2	59	Philadelphia	Aaron Williams	CB	Texas	P2	-25	Reach
2	60	Baltimore	Brian Lainhart	S	Kent State	P4	-12	Reach
2	61	New Orleans	Mason Foster	OLB43	Washington	P3	-7	Reach
2	62	Pittsburgh	Matt Reynolds	RT	BYU	P3	-14	Reach
2	63	Atlanta	Leonard Hankerson	WR	Miami (FL)	P3	-12	Reach
2	64	New England	Jeremy Beal	OLB34	Oklahoma	P4	-5	Reach
3	65	Carolina	Sione Fua	DT43	Stanford	P3	-8	Reach
3	66	Cincinnati	Marvin Austin	DT43	North Carolina	P3	-22	Reach
3	67	Denver	D.J. Williams	TE	Arkansas	P4	22	Value
3	68	Detroit	Martez Wilson	LB	Illinois	P4	27	Value
3	69	Buffalo	Pat Devlin	QB	Delaware	P3	-33	Reach
3	70	Arizona	Aldon Smith	OLB34	Missouri	P3	-20	Reach
3	71	Dallas	Benjamin Ijalana	OG	Villanova	P3	-21	Reach
3	72	Tennessee	Lance Kendricks	TE	Wisconsin	P3	12	Value
3	73	San Francisco	Christian Ponder	QB	Florida State	P3	-21	Reach
3	74	Washington	Dontay Moch	OLB34	Nevada	P3	0	Value
3	75	Cleveland	Christian Ballard	DE34	Iowa	P2	-11	Reach
3	76	Houston	Rahim Moore	FS	UCLA	P3	-22	Reach
3	77	San Diego	Curtis Brown	CB	Texas	P3	-35	Reach
3	78	New England	Ryan Williams	RB	Virginia Tech	P6	32	Value
3	79	St Louis	Austin Pettis	WR	Boise State	P2	-4	Reach
3	80	Oakland	Mike Pouncey	OG	Florida	P3	-5	Reach
3	81	Miami	Kristofer O'Dowd	OC	USC	P2	-13	Reach
3	82	Indianapolis	Ras-I Dowling	FS/CB	Virginia	P4	-14	Reach
3	83	Kansas City	Tim Barnes	OC	Missouri	P3	-30	Reach
3	84	San Diego	James Carpenter	RT	Alabama	P4	2	Value
3	85	Tampa Bay	Danny Watkins	OG	Baylor	P3	-22	Reach
3	86	Jacksonville	Colin McCarthy	MLB	Miami (FL)	P6	34	Value
3	87	Green Bay	Andy Dalton	QB	TCU	P5	16	Value
3	88	Chicago	Stephen Schilling	OG	Michigan	P3	-30	Reach
3	89	NY Giants	Joseph Barksdale	OT	LSU	P5	-28	Reach
3	90	San Diego	Jared Crick	DE34	Nebraska	P4	0	Value
3	91	Philadelphia	Tank Carder	OLB43	TCU	P4	32	Value
3	92	Baltimore	Chimdi Chekwa	CB	Ohio State	P3	-28	Reach
3	93	New Orleans	Jordan Todman	RB	Connecticut	P5	40	Value
3	94	Pittsburgh	Courtney Upshaw	ILB	Alabama	P6	30	Value
3	95	Atlanta	Tyron Smith	LT	USC	P3	-7	Reach
3	96	New England	Colin Kaepernick	QB/WR	Nevada	P6	46	Value
4	97	Carolina	Dwayne Harris	WR	East Carolina	P3	-8	Reach
4	98	Cincinnati	DeAndre McDaniel	FS	Clemson	P4	-3	Reach
4	99	Seattle	Johnny Patrick	CB	Louisville	P3	-46	Reach
4	100	Detroit	Mark Herzlich	OLB43	Boston College	P3	-4	Reach
4	101	Buffalo	Luke Stocker	TE	Tennessee	P3	38	Value
4	102	Arizona	Lee Ziemba	OT	Auburn	P3	-24	Reach
4	103	Dallas	Curt Porter	RT	Jacksonville State	P3	-39	Reach
4	104	Tennessee	Brandon Fusco	OC	Slippery Rock	P3	-26	Reach
4	105	San Francisco	Jabaal Sheard	OLB34	Pittsburgh	P3	-4	Reach
4	106	Philadelphia	DeMarco Murray	RB	Oklahoma	P6	45	Value
4	107	Cleveland	Sam Acho	OLB34	Texas	P3	-15	Reach
4	108	Houston	Kendrick Ellis	DT43	Hampton	P6	11	Value
4	109	Buffalo	Don'ta Hightower	ILB	Alabama	P5	19	Value
4	110	Minnesota	John Moffitt	OG/OC	Wisconsin	P3	-33	Reach
4	111	St Louis	Nate Irving	OLB43	North Carolina State	P3	-4	Reach
4	112	Oakland	Jurrell Casey	DT43	USC	P4	-20	Reach
4	113	Miami	Dejon Gomes	FS	Nebraska	P6	4	Value
4	114	Indianapolis	Jarvis Jenkins	DT43	Clemson	P3	-22	Reach
4	115	Kansas City	Titus Young	WR	Boise State	P6	-1	Reach
4	116	San Francisco	Shareece Wright	CB	USC	P3	-41	Reach
4	117	Tampa Bay	Noel Devine	RBC	West Virginia	P6	26	Value
4	118	Jacksonville	Ronald Johnson	WR	USC	P4	-9	Reach
4	119	Green Bay	Daniel Thomas	RB	Kansas State	P4	47	Value
4	120	Chicago	Devier Posey	WR	Ohio State	P5	-19	Reach
4	121	NY Giants	Quinton Carter	FS	Oklahoma	P4	0	Value
4	122	NY Jets	Lavonte David	SS	Nebraska	P4	44	Value
4	123	Philadelphia	Rob Housler	TE	Florida Atlantic	P6	9	Value
4	124	Baltimore	Kai Forbath	PK	UCLA	P6	21	Value
4	125	Jacksonville	Kevin Kowalski	OC	Toledo	P3	-41	Reach
4	126	Pittsburgh	Lawrence Guy	DE34	Arizona State	P6	-7	Reach
4	127	Atlanta	Jerrel Jernigan	WRslot	Troy	P6	28	Value
4	128	New England	Andrew Rich	S	BYU	P6	-1	Reach
5	129	Carolina	Alfonzo Dennard	CB	Nebraska		-42	Reach
5	130	Cincinnati	Adam Grant	RT	Arizona		-24	Reach
5	131	Tampa Bay	Kelvin Sheppard	LB	LSU		44	Value
5	132	Detroit	Vincent Brown	WR	San Diego State		-18	Reach
5	133	Buffalo	Owen Marecic	FB/ILB	Stanford		52	Value
5	134	Arizona	Josh Bynes	ILB	Auburn		9	Value
5	135	Dallas	Chase Minnefield	CB	Virginia		-64	Reach
5	136	Tennessee	Ricky Stanzi	QB	Iowa		-13	Reach
5	137	San Francisco	Johnny Brown	FS	Mississippi		-19	Reach
5	138	Washington	Derrick Locke	RBC	Kentucky		32	Value
5	139	Cleveland	Chris Hairston	RT	Clemson		-16	Reach
5	140	Houston	Randall Cobb	WRslot	Kentucky		17	Value
5	141	Seattle	Pernell McPhee	LDE43	Mississippi State		-6	Reach
5	142	Minnesota	Konrad Reuland	TE	Stanford		23	Value
5	143	St Louis	Jeff Demps	RB	Florida		43	Value
5	144	Oakland	Taylor Potts	QB	Texas Tech		-4	Reach
5	145	Miami	Anthony Gray	NT	Southern Miss		-17	Reach
5	146	Indianapolis	Clint Boling	OG/RT	Georgia		-42	Reach
5	147	Kansas City	Wayne Daniels	OLB34	TCU		13	Value
5	148	Philadelphia	Mike Hartline	QB	Kentucky		-18	Reach
5	149	Tampa Bay	Zane Taylor	OC	Utah		-55	Reach
5	150	Jacksonville	Quinton Coples	DE43	North Carolina		-14	Reach
5	151	Green Bay	Casey Matthews	ILB	Oregon		13	Value
5	152	Chicago	Ross Homan	OLB43	Ohio State		-1	Reach
5	153	Minnesota	Marcus Gilchrist	CB	Clemson		-58	Reach
5	154	NY Jets	Preston Dial	TE	Alabama		10	Value
5	155	Philadelphia	Zach Hurd	OG	Connecticut		-43	Reach
5	156	Seattle	Graig Cooper	RB	Miami (FL)		19	Value
5	157	New Orleans	Greg Romeus	DE43	Pittsburgh		-22	Reach
5	158	Pittsburgh	Colin Jones	S	TCU		-3	Reach
5	159	Atlanta	Matt Bosher	PK	Miami (FL)		24	Value
5	160	New England	Donnie Fletcher	CB	Boston College		-63	Reach
6	161	Carolina	Stephen Good	OG	Oklahoma		-49	Reach
6	162	Cincinnati	Vince Browne	DE43	Northwestern		-11	Reach
6	163	Cleveland	Mike McNeill	TE	Nebraska		11	Value
6	164	Seattle	Mike Blanc	DT43	Auburn		1	Value
6	165	Buffalo	Edmund Gates	WR	Abilene Christian		-4	Reach
6	166	Arizona	Zach Pianalto	TE	North Carolina		-4	Reach
6	167	Dallas	Jacquizz Rodgers	RB	Oregon State		43	Value
6	168	Tennessee	Jeremy Kerley	WRslot	TCU		37	Value
6	169	San Francisco	Rashad Carmichael	CB	Virginia Tech		-63	Reach
6	170	Washington	Harold Ayodele	NT	Emporia State		-14	Reach
6	171	Cleveland	Jeremy Kellem	FS	Middle Tennessee		-20	Reach
6	172	Houston	Nate Potter	OT/OG	Boise State		4	Value
6	173	San Francisco	Marcus Gilbert	OG/OT	Florida		-9	Reach
6	174	Minnesota	Cecil Shorts III	WR	Mount Union		-8	Reach
6	175	St Louis	Greg McElroy	QB	Alabama		-8	Reach
6	176	Oakland	Elijah Joseph	OLB43	Temple		16	Value
6	177	Miami	Brandon Weeden	QB	Oklahoma State		-18	Reach
6	178	Indianapolis	DeAngelo Tyson	DT43	Georgia		-13	Reach
6	179	Kansas City	Nathan Enderle	QB	Idaho		-52	Reach
6	180	San Diego	Chris White	ILB	Mississippi State		40	Value
6	181	Tampa Bay	Brooks Reed	DE43	Arizona		-4	Reach
6	182	Jacksonville	Kendric Burney	CB	North Carolina		-76	Reach
6	183	Green Bay	Greg Little	WR	North Carolina		-20	Reach
6	184	Chicago	Alex Linnenkohl	OC	Oregon State		-62	Reach
6	185	NY Giants	Stanley Havili	FB	USC		90	Value
6	186	NY Jets	Mike Mohamed	ILB	California		40	Value
6	187	Detroit	Davonte Shannon	S	Buffalo		-13	Reach
6	188	Baltimore	James Brewer	RT	Indiana		1	Value
6	189	New England	Lee Smith	TE	Marshall		9	Value
6	190	Pittsburgh	Ryan Van Bergen	DE34	Michigan		13	Value
6	191	Atlanta	Nigel Bradham	OLB43	Florida State		10	Value
6	192	Denver	Alex Wujciak	ILB	Maryland		18	Value
7	193	Carolina	Justin Boren	OG	Ohio State		-37	Reach
7	194	Cincinnati	Mario Fannin	RB	Auburn		43	Value
7	195	Denver	Matt Conrath	DE34	Virginia		-9	Reach
7	196	Detroit	Pierre Allen	DE43	Nebraska		-25	Reach
7	197	Buffalo	Bryant Browning	OG	Ohio State		-50	Reach
7	198	Arizona	Scott Lutrus	ILB	Connecticut		23	Value
7	199	Dallas	Ryan Bartholomew	OC	Syracuse		-68	Reach
7	200	Tennessee	Deunta Williams	S	North Carolina		-6	Reach
7	201	San Francisco	Jamie Harper	RB	Clemson		60	Value
7	202	Washington	Jason Kelce	OC	Cincinnati		-78	Reach
7	203	Cleveland	Michael Egnew	TE	Missouri		14	Value
7	204	Houston	Chris Carter	OLB43	Fresno State		12	Value
7	205	Seattle	Tyrod Taylor	QB	Virginia Tech		-6	Reach
7	206	Minnesota	Rob McGill	OT	Louisiana Tech		-32	Reach
7	207	St Louis	Delone Carter	RB	Syracuse		40	Value
7	208	Oakland	Lawrence Wilson	OLB43	Connecticut		-9	Reach
7	209	Miami	Greg Salas	WR	Hawaii		-11	Reach
7	210	Indianapolis	Collin Franklin	TE	Iowa State		5	Value
7	211	Kansas City	Chris L. Rucker	CB	Michigan State		-30	Reach
7	212	San Diego	Ben Thayer	TE	Eastern Michigan		-3	Reach
7	213	Tampa Bay	Will Hill	FS	Florida		-11	Reach
7	214	Jacksonville	Keith Williams	OG	Nebraska		-123	Reach
7	215	Green Bay	James Rodgers	WRslot	Oregon State		18	Value
7	216	Chicago	Kheeston Randall	DT43	Texas		-12	Reach
7	217	NY Giants	Alex Henery	PK	Nebraska		27	Value
7	218	NY Jets	Derek Wolfe	DE34	Cincinnati		-19	Reach
7	219	Philadelphia	Mario Butler	CB	Georgia Tech		-57	Reach
7	220	Baltimore	Eddie Jones	OLB34	Texas		18	Value
7	221	New Orleans	Tydreke Powell	DT43	North Carolina		-23	Reach
7	222	Pittsburgh	Chris Culliver	CB/S	Idaho		-48	Reach
7	223	Atlanta	Chris Galippo	LB	USC		15	Value
7	224	New England	Chase Beeler	OC	Stanford		-61	Reach