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cthabeerman

  • joined Apr 12, 2009
  • last login Aug 20, 2014
  • posts 70
  • comments 10075
User Blog
FanPost
13

Dan Uggla's power is awful and so am I...

Hi all, This is my mea culpa for a bet made mid-season, one that was optimistic yet utterly foolhardy. Like most elections, I'm going to call this race even though only about 80% of the...

FanPost
20

Two off days OT thread...

Hi all, Let's get some non-baseball banter going, since there's not much else to be done during this three-game week. Vince Vaughn is reportedly in talks for a lead role in True Detective. I...

FanPost
54

We need moderators.

Now, I'll be the first to admit that I sometimes post some pretty mean-spirited rants and have directed words like "moron" at my fair share of commenters, but this place has gotten ridiculous. The...

Teheran has some good out pitches...

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As you can see in the article, the selection bias exists in that these pitches are typically thrown in pitchers' counts. That said, Teheran's changeup has a .059 wOBA allowed this season, best in the league, and his curveball is third at .099 wOBA allowed. The article was written yesterday, so presumably these factor in the Colorado game. -C

FanPost
4

The Phillies Cash In...

Well, their new TV deal has finally been agreed upon. No official figures are out, but the consensus is that the deal will be 20-25 years in length and should be somewhere in upwards of $150M/year. ...

Baseball ticket analysis...another reason it's good to be a Braves fan

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According to this study, the Braves have the second lowest hidden fees attached to tickets, and have one of the lowest average prices for four-ticket purchases. And they're winning... -C

Braves and Strikeouts...

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The summary: Stop complaining about all the strikeouts. -C

FanPost
11

Draft sleepers - Who's your guy??

Each of us, I assume, has someone that they'd like the Bucs to select in the upcoming draft that flies under the radar but possesses the talent to be a successful NFL player. Maybe it's a guy...

FanPost
10

Opening Day OT/Not So OT Ramblings...

So it's Opening Day and there's a bunch of games on. I think it's only fitting to have a special OT set up just for today, where you can talk about whatever the hell happens today. if you feel...

FanPost
95

Off Topic: Because We Need One

OT Topic: Talk About Stuff That Happened Years Ago...But Doesn't Feel That Way. Example: Heath Ledger died five years ago today. To me, it doesn't seem that long at all. Like a couple years. Yes,...

FanPost
47

Happy Trails, to You...Until 2013...

As we get closer to the end of the regular season, fewer and fewer teams will be playoff-eligible. Their playoff candles will be snuffed, leaving the teams virtually nothing to play for...save...

FanPost
27

As Teams Fall By the Wayside...

As we get closer to the end of the regular season, fewer and fewer teams will be playoff-eligible. Their playoff candles will be snuffed, leaving the teams virtually nothing to play for...save...

FanPost
38

Musings Down the Home Stretch

It's no secret that the Atlanta Braves are down four games to the Washington Nationals in the NL East with 51 games to play. Though the two clubs have six head-to-head matchups, let's take a look...

FanPost
21

...And, voila! Everyone's more valuable.

Today, I propose that both the Cubs and Braves organizations have been conspiring together. No, not to make a trade. That is the subterfuge. What these two organizations are doing is creating value...

Moylan recalled?

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Twitter status seems to suggest he's back. No word yet on corresponding moves... Varvaro or Avilan down, maybe?? -C

Fangraphs: Heyward Still Really Good

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Dave Cameron talks about Heyward's aggressiveness and its dividends in his third season. Really good stuff. -C

Outfielder Jorge Soler is expected to agree on a four-year deal before tomorrow, an industry source...

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Outfielder Jorge Soler is expected to agree on a four-year deal before tomorrow, an industry source told George A. King III and Mike Puma of the New York Post. Meanwhile, the representative for Soler is calling to ask teams if their bids are final, sources tell Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The Yankees, Cubs, Braves, and Dodgers have been among the most aggressive teams in their pursuit of Soler, according to Olney. ------------------- Didn't even know that the Braves were in on him...thoughts?? -C http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/soler-expected-to-agree-to-deal-before-tomorrow.html

FanPost
3

Braves' previous Achilles heel now MLB's best

2011 was a pretty poor year for the Braves outfield, as the team collectively earned just 6.7 WAR from the entirety of their outfielders. With Martin Prado mired in a post-staph infection slump,...

Fangraphs releases sabermetric constants...

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This is probably only interesting for the stat geeks, but some great information is there if you know how to use it. For instance, what percentage would you have to steal at in order to provide positive value. If you said ~75%, you're living in the wrong run environment (and, to be honest, that's always been a ballpark figure...I can't find a run environment that required that level of success). In the decreased run environment of recent years, stolen bases have become more valuable. So far this season, you'd only have to be safe in 65.95% of SB attempts to provide positive offensive value. How did I find this?? It's simple. A steal is worth +.255 and a CS is worth -.494. Let's say you want to break even. So you have +.255x (SB) -.494y (CS) = 0. Move the CS over to the other side (+0.494 * CS). Then set the CS at one, or .494 for that side of the equation. Then divide by the SB coefficent to see that one CS event negates 1.93725 SB events. So, in order to be positive value, you'd have to steal at better than a 65.95% rate. In 1968, you only had to steal at a 62.2% rate in order to be effective. To contrast, in 2000 you had to steal at better than a 69.66% clip to be effective. In 1887, it was 71.77% of the time to be successful. Fun with numbers!!

Fangraphs' Marc Hulet loves the Braves - Top 100 Prospects

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7 (article credits eight, but only seven are on the actual list) Braves fell into his top 100, including both SSs and Bethancourt in the 90s. Gilmartin also gets some love. -C

McCann Becomes More Sabermetrically Valuable...

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Pitch blocking values have been added into fWAR, and this happens to be one of McCann's strong points defensively. By accurately being able to measure how many catchers can block different pitch types at different locations, with different planes of movement at different speeds, Bojan Koprivica deserves a big kudos for adding this analysis into this position's overall value. Here's his amazing article, for those interested: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-one-bites-the-dust/ McCann's career WAR jumped by about 1.7 as a result of this new addition, including a "perfect" 7.0 runs above above average in 2010. Why perfect?? Because FG has limited the value of pitch blocking to +/- 7 runs, at least for now. McCann ranks second in this metric (unsurprisingly, Yadier Molina is first), which provides analysis retroactive to 2008. If not for his "perfect" 2010 score, McCann would actually be 18 runs above average as opposed to Molina's 19.9. Because of the limit, he officially is only 16.8 runs above average during that time. Molina has no "perfect" seasons, so his total value was unaffected. -C

Hu's on First??

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Gotta love this... Oh, btw, oakland and seattle pitchers and catchers report today, rest of MLB on Sunday (voluntary dates). Soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooon. -C

Braves Add Dynamic Pricing

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Great for Atlanta-based fans and the organization...when the stadium isn't going to fill, you might be able to get in quite a bit cheaper. -C

Robinson Lopez released...

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The Cubs released right-hander Robinson Lopez, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (on Twitter). Chicago acquired Lopez from Atlanta in the 2010 Derrek Lee trade. Remember when everyone was up in arms about trading him?? A candidate to come back into the fold?? -C

Out of Options - 2012

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Doesn't look like we can stash CMart in the minors to help out w/ DL issues like we have in the past. It also looks like Jairo Ascencio is up or out. I'm going to take a second look through the list and see if there's any potential pickups that may be worthwhile if they don't make other teams' 25-man squads... -C

Brandon Beachy: 3rd Best FB in MLB

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Pretty interesting stuff here... Beachy was one of the league’s best starters on a per-inning basis, posting an 82 xFIP- that placed him ahead of (for example) Matt Garza, Tim Lincecum, and C.J. Wilson, and a strikeout rate of 28.6% that was better than any starter with at least 50 innings pitched — including Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, etc. -C

Beers by Team

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Hey, be proud, folks. Second best beer on the list...damn you again, Cardinals. -C

Dynamic Ticket Pricing - Great Idea

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This could be a win-win for the Cardinals and their fans. By rewarding early purchases and cutting the price of sparsely-attended contests before the event begins, fans can really find opportunities that put them in the ballpark at more affordable prices. The organization can reap rewards in adding to their attendance figures, and adding an even more loyal following as fans find the ballpark more accessible to them. Increased attendance adds to income not only through ticket sales, but also through more indirect means like concessions, advertising, et al. I don't know how Busch is situated in St. Louis, but I know this would be killer for additional revenue in a city like Denver.

Braves, Bourn avoid arbitration

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Lower than the anticipated mark. Well-done, Wren. -C

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