SBNation.com User Blog: cthabeerman

Baseball ticket analysis...another reason it's good to be a Braves fan

cthabeerman — Tue, 11 Jun 2013 06:29:51 -0000

Baseball ticket analysis...another reason it's good to be a Braves fan

According to this study, the Braves have the second lowest hidden fees attached to tickets, and have one of the lowest average prices for four-ticket purchases.

And they're winning...

-C

Braves and Strikeouts...

cthabeerman — Wed, 15 May 2013 23:15:17 -0000

Braves and Strikeouts...

The summary: Stop complaining about all the strikeouts.

-C

Draft sleepers - Who's your guy??

cthabeerman — Wed, 17 Apr 2013 00:32:13 -0000

Each of us, I assume, has someone that they'd like the Bucs to select in the upcoming draft that flies under the radar but possesses the talent to be a successful NFL player.

Maybe it's a guy previously projected as a high-round pick, but an injury or poor senior year will lead to a lower pick. Perhaps it's the kid that simply made too many mistakes on or off the field but made you think, "If this guy can get it together, he's going to be incredible." Or maybe you just love the way he plays, taking a spot on your "All-Hustle Team."

This Fanpost is devoted to your guy.

As a huge Nebraska fan, my homer pick is unquestionably Rex Burkhead. He's a prototypical "Jack of All Trades" running back, a position that doesn't really have a whole lot of importance for the Bucs in this draft. But if LeGarrette Blount should be traded, I foresee Burkhead as being an excellent complement to the backfield.

A lot of places seem to have him falling out of the draft entirely, while others seem to believe he could be taken in the late rounds. There was plenty of talk about him being a potential Heisman candidate prior to last season's injuries took hold, however, and I think he's got a great shot to be that diamond in the rough every team is hoping to find.

He's not huge, he's not incredibly fast, but he has been incredibly effective. He can run between the tackles or bounce it outside. He has excellent hands, good enough to occasionally fill in as a slot receiver after motioning out of the backfield. He can block fairly well. And, unlike many backs coming out of the draft, he's already used to playing in two-back systems. While he probably won't have the pure physical talent to be the lead-man in an RB tandem, he is an intelligent player that will know his role in the backfield, which will allow him to provide the most impact in his limited opportunities. He can gain the needed yard, he can break a tackle or two, and he's big enough to keep churning forward while being brought down.

Off the field, Burkhead exemplifies the type of character that every fan wants from their team's players. He was an academic All-American, and a three-time member of the Brook Berringer Citizen Team and was a Nebraska Student-Athlete HERO Leadership Award winner. He is noted particularly for his work with children suffering from cancer and other rare diseases. Essentially, he's the guy you hope your daughter would marry. And he can play a little football, too.

So...who's your guy??

-C

Each of us, I assume, has someone that they'd like the Bucs to select in the upcoming draft that flies under the radar but possesses the talent to be a successful NFL player.

This Fanpost is devoted to your guy.

So...who's your guy??

-C

Opening Day OT/Not So OT Ramblings...

cthabeerman — Mon, 01 Apr 2013 17:26:50 -0000

So it's Opening Day and there's a bunch of games on.

I think it's only fitting to have a special OT set up just for today, where you can talk about whatever the hell happens today.

if you feel the same way, sit down, relax, and enjoy the games while discussing your thoughts and reactions to the day's action with your fellow Braves fans.

Anyone have any special Opening Day rituals they carry out every year?? Discuss them here.

-C

So it's Opening Day and there's a bunch of games on.

I think it's only fitting to have a special OT set up just for today, where you can talk about whatever the hell happens today.

if you feel the same way, sit down, relax, and enjoy the games while discussing your thoughts and reactions to the day's action with your fellow Braves fans.

Anyone have any special Opening Day rituals they carry out every year?? Discuss them here.

-C

Off Topic: Because We Need One

cthabeerman — Tue, 22 Jan 2013 19:53:13 -0000

OT Topic: Talk About Stuff That Happened Years Ago...But Doesn't Feel That Way.

Example: Heath Ledger died five years ago today. To me, it doesn't seem that long at all. Like a couple years. Yes, when you actually think about it, you can put it at five years...but it just doesn't feel that way.

So, what historical events have you looking back on your life and shaking your head because it doesn't seem that it happened so long ago?? How has so much time just slipped between our fingers??

...And...Here...We...Go.

-C

OT Topic: Talk About Stuff That Happened Years Ago...But Doesn't Feel That Way.

So, what historical events have you looking back on your life and shaking your head because it doesn't seem that it happened so long ago?? How has so much time just slipped between our fingers??

...And...Here...We...Go.

-C

Happy Trails, to You...Until 2013...

cthabeerman — Sun, 09 Sep 2012 16:02:39 -0000

As we get closer to the end of the regular season, fewer and fewer teams will be playoff-eligible. Their playoff candles will be snuffed, leaving the teams virtually nothing to play for...save pride, effing their rivals, and draft position. As of today, one team has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. I'll try to keep track of each team's fate over the next two weeks, as the pretenders fall.

Goodnight, sweet princes.

Teams eliminated from postseason play thus far (once your name is here, you're out entirely):

Hanging by a thread (either division or wild card eligibility has been lost)

Eliminated from AL Divisions: None.

Eliminated from NL East: Philadelphia Phillies.

Eliminated from NL Central: Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers.

Eliminated from NL West: San Diego Padres.

Eliminated from AL Wild Card entirely: Kansas City Royals, .

Eliminated from 1st NL Wild Card: San Diego Padres, New York Mets.

Eliminated from NL Wild Card entirely: None.

Teams on the ropes

(9/21/2012): Kansas City Royals, out of playoffs w/ CHW win or KC loss; St. Louis Cardinals, eliminated from NL Central w/ CIN win and STL loss; Arizona Diamondbacks, eliminated from NL West w/ SFG win or AZ loss; Diamondbacks, eliminated from 1st NL Wild Card w/ ATL win and AZ loss; Pittsburgh Pirates, eliminated from 1st NL Wild Card w/ ATL win and PIT loss.

I'll try (and likely fail) to update this daily...

-C

Goodnight, sweet princes.

Teams eliminated from postseason play thus far (once your name is here, you're out entirely):

Hanging by a thread (either division or wild card eligibility has been lost)

Eliminated from AL Divisions: None.

Eliminated from NL East: Philadelphia Phillies.

Eliminated from NL Central: Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers.

Eliminated from NL West: San Diego Padres.

Eliminated from AL Wild Card entirely: Kansas City Royals, .

Eliminated from 1st NL Wild Card: San Diego Padres, New York Mets.

Eliminated from NL Wild Card entirely: None.

Teams on the ropes

I'll try (and likely fail) to update this daily...

-C

As Teams Fall By the Wayside...

cthabeerman — Sun, 26 Aug 2012 04:04:24 -0000

Goodnight, sweet princes.

Teams eliminated from postseason play thus far (once your name is here, you're out entirely):

Houston Astros

Goodnight, sweet princes.

Teams eliminated from postseason play thus far (once your name is here, you're out entirely):

Houston Astros

Hanging by a thread (either division or wild card eligibility has been lost)

Eliminated from AL Division Races: None.

Eliminated from NL East, West: None.

Eliminated from NL Central: Chicago Cubs.

Eliminated from AL Wild Card: None

Eliminated from 1st NL Wild Card : Chicago Cubs.

Eliminated from 2nd NL Wild Card: None.

Teams on the ropes

(9/8/2012): Miami Marlins, eliminated from NL East w/ MIA loss or WAS win.

I'll try (and likely fail) to update this daily...

-C

Musings Down the Home Stretch

cthabeerman — Thu, 09 Aug 2012 04:29:40 -0000

It's no secret that the Atlanta Braves are down four games to the Washington Nationals in the NL East with 51 games to play. Though the two clubs have six head-to-head matchups, let's take a look at factors outside those contests.

The Braves' opposition (not including the Nats) in the next two months have a combined .470 winning percentage thus far in 2012. This equates to playing a 76-win team for the rest of the season. Only three series come against teams above .500, including 3 at home against the Dodgers, a four-game set at San Francisco, and another three contests against the Pirates at PNC Park. Pittsburgh could still be in the hunt come the final series of the season, so that should provide plenty of late-season drama for the Braves. Fortunately, the Giants series is the only baseball the Braves will play west of the Mississippi, which means the team won't experience much travel or baseball games at late hours.

Meanwhile, the Nats' opponents (not including Atlanta) have a combined .484 winning percentage, which equates to them playing a 78.5-win team every game through the regular season. Washington has five series against teams above .500, including a four-game set at Arizona, a three-game trip to San Fran and two series with the Cardinals, whom the Braves hope can match last season's magic in the final eight weeks of the season (at the Nats' expense, of course). Four games will be in D.C. while three will be held in St. Louie. Like Pittsburgh, these games could also drastically alter the Cards' playoff hopes and we can be sure they'll be looking to scratch out every game prior to facing the rival Reds for the final homestand of the season. The Nats are currently beyond the banks of the Mississippi and will stay there for their next three series, with one game left in Houston as well as their sets against the Diamondbacks and Giants. St. Louis is technically west of that border, but close enough that the travel and time change associated with the games shouldn't be drastically different than what the team is used to.

Both teams have played better ball on the road in 2012, which may favor the Braves, since Atlanta has 28 away games to Washington's 23 (not including the three games each will play on the road against each other) remaining. Mutual out-of-division teams faced will include San Francisco, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles.

The Braves and Nats each have four "stinker" games left, with Atlanta facing Colorado four times at home and the Nats having one contest at Houston and three versus the Cubs upcoming. In case you're wondering, the Rockies have a homestand prior to coming to Atlanta, which is typically ideal for Atlanta because the altitude change is difficult for the Rockies to quickly adjust to (yes, it works both ways).

...And, voila! Everyone's more valuable.

cthabeerman — Wed, 25 Jul 2012 06:58:28 -0000

Today, I propose that both the Cubs and Braves organizations have been conspiring together. No, not to make a trade. That is the subterfuge. What these two organizations are doing is creating value that was not previously seen in such an advantageous light.

So what do we have here? An aging veteran with an expiring deal in a career year. A struggling rookie that's not quite living up to his billing.

By pitting them against one another, their respective statistical strengths can be magnified. One is an ML-best, but thoughts of regression and of rust can hamper his value. The other has peripherals to match the elder, several cost-friendly seasons left in front of him, but he may be just a little green.

Making Randall Delgado worth Ryan Dempster, on one side of the coin, shows the belief that one organization values an untapped potential more than their proven veteran, who has shown little weakness in his 2012 campaign. Alternately, Dempster has been thought of as a piece that can provide a profound effect upon one lucky team's (and perhaps not the Braves'??) playoff chances by another crowd.

Are either pitchers really as valuable as the acquiring organization claims?? Probably not. Delgado has plenty of kinks to work out. Dempster may be on top of his game, but his window is fading fast.

So what's the end result? Well, Dempster's no Greinke or Hamels, but his stock is probably higher than it was 10 days ago, thanks to the legitimate prospect associated with this trade. Likewise, Delgado's no Beachy, but he represents a wealth of talent that is incredibly difficult to trade away for a limited time offer.

There's some dueling banjos being played, and everyone's wondering what might happen next. Whatever may come, both teams have successfully showcased their assets in such a fashion that makes them more valuable than they were prior to the trade talks. Now they'll move to strike while the iron's hot, cashing in on better prospects or better talent at a lower cost.

So who got the best of the Dempster-Delgado trade?? Both teams.

-C

Moylan recalled?

cthabeerman — Sat, 21 Jul 2012 15:47:55 -0000

Moylan recalled?

Twitter status seems to suggest he's back. No word yet on corresponding moves...

Varvaro or Avilan down, maybe??

-C

Fangraphs: Heyward Still Really Good

cthabeerman — Mon, 25 Jun 2012 18:21:42 -0000

Fangraphs: Heyward Still Really Good

Dave Cameron talks about Heyward's aggressiveness and its dividends in his third season.

Really good stuff.

-C

Outfielder Jorge Soler is expected to agree on a four-year deal before tomorrow, an industry source...

cthabeerman — Sun, 10 Jun 2012 16:24:32 -0000

Outfielder Jorge Soler is expected to agree on a four-year deal before tomorrow, an industry source told George A. King III and Mike Puma of the New York Post. Meanwhile, the representative for Soler is calling to ask teams if their bids are final, sources tell Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter).

The Yankees, Cubs, Braves, and Dodgers have been among the most aggressive teams in their pursuit of Soler, according to Olney.

-------------------

Didn't even know that the Braves were in on him...thoughts??

-C

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/06/soler-expected-to-agree-to-deal-before-tomorrow.html

Braves' previous Achilles heel now MLB's best

cthabeerman — Wed, 30 May 2012 22:28:47 -0000

2011 was a pretty poor year for the Braves outfield, as the team collectively earned just 6.7 WAR from the entirety of their outfielders.

With Martin Prado mired in a post-staph infection slump, the tandem of Nate McLouth and Jordan Schafer providing little value and Jason Heyward battling injuries and mechanical issues at the plate, the team clearly underperformed the expectations set forth prior to the beginning of the 2011 season. Michael Bourn provided a little boost at the trade deadline, but also performed slightly below expectations in the final half of the season.

That's not the case this season, as the Braves' starting three collectively have the most WAR among all MLB starting outfields, already eclipsing last year's total with 7.1 WAR through 51 games.

The Rangers have the best overall OF WAR (as they have better depth at the position) and the Dodgers' collection of OFs equals the Braves OF WAR totals, but when it comes to the starting three, the Braves are king.

While not the best at the plate (collectively ninth in wRC+), the Braves have accumulated the best OF UZR in the league, by better than three runs. Atlanta's also been very good on the basepaths, with baserunning accounting for 3 runs thru the first third of the season, good for a fifth-place tie.

It's important to note that DRS seems to like the starting three nearly as much as UZR. The Prado/Bourn/Heyward trio have collected a +19 DRS, as opposed to a +22.7 UZR.

While the season's still young and there are many games left to play, the outfield's starting three have been a bright spot that will be counted on as the season progresses.

-C

* - Prado has played 8 games (7 starting) for 62.0 innings at third. While it accounts for a small portion of the season, it is important to note.

2011 was a pretty poor year for the Braves outfield, as the team collectively earned just 6.7 WAR from the entirety of their outfielders.

That's not the case this season, as the Braves' starting three collectively have the most WAR among all MLB starting outfields, already eclipsing last year's total with 7.1 WAR through 51 games.

It's important to note that DRS seems to like the starting three nearly as much as UZR. The Prado/Bourn/Heyward trio have collected a +19 DRS, as opposed to a +22.7 UZR.

While the season's still young and there are many games left to play, the outfield's starting three have been a bright spot that will be counted on as the season progresses.

-C

* - Prado has played 8 games (7 starting) for 62.0 innings at third. While it accounts for a small portion of the season, it is important to note.

Fangraphs releases sabermetric constants...

cthabeerman — Mon, 23 Apr 2012 20:58:26 -0000

Fangraphs releases sabermetric constants...

This is probably only interesting for the stat geeks, but some great information is there if you know how to use it.

For instance, what percentage would you have to steal at in order to provide positive value. If you said ~75%, you're living in the wrong run environment (and, to be honest, that's always been a ballpark figure...I can't find a run environment that required that level of success).

In the decreased run environment of recent years, stolen bases have become more valuable. So far this season, you'd only have to be safe in 65.95% of SB attempts to provide positive offensive value.

How did I find this?? It's simple. A steal is worth +.255 and a CS is worth -.494. Let's say you want to break even. So you have +.255x (SB) -.494y (CS) = 0. Move the CS over to the other side (+0.494 * CS). Then set the CS at one, or .494 for that side of the equation. Then divide by the SB coefficent to see that one CS event negates 1.93725 SB events. So, in order to be positive value, you'd have to steal at better than a 65.95% rate.

In 1968, you only had to steal at a 62.2% rate in order to be effective. To contrast, in 2000 you had to steal at better than a 69.66% clip to be effective. In 1887, it was 71.77% of the time to be successful.

Fun with numbers!!

Fangraphs' Marc Hulet loves the Braves - Top 100 Prospects

cthabeerman — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 15:16:40 -0000

Fangraphs' Marc Hulet loves the Braves - Top 100 Prospects

7 (article credits eight, but only seven are on the actual list) Braves fell into his top 100, including both SSs and Bethancourt in the 90s. Gilmartin also gets some love.

-C

McCann Becomes More Sabermetrically Valuable...

cthabeerman — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 17:25:34 -0000

McCann Becomes More Sabermetrically Valuable...

Pitch blocking values have been added into fWAR, and this happens to be one of McCann's strong points defensively.

By accurately being able to measure how many catchers can block different pitch types at different locations, with different planes of movement at different speeds, Bojan Koprivica deserves a big kudos for adding this analysis into this position's overall value.

Here's his amazing article, for those interested: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-one-bites-the-dust/

McCann's career WAR jumped by about 1.7 as a result of this new addition, including a "perfect" 7.0 runs above above average in 2010. Why perfect?? Because FG has limited the value of pitch blocking to +/- 7 runs, at least for now.

McCann ranks second in this metric (unsurprisingly, Yadier Molina is first), which provides analysis retroactive to 2008. If not for his "perfect" 2010 score, McCann would actually be 18 runs above average as opposed to Molina's 19.9. Because of the limit, he officially is only 16.8 runs above average during that time. Molina has no "perfect" seasons, so his total value was unaffected.

-C

Hu's on First??

cthabeerman — Fri, 17 Feb 2012 22:13:56 -0000

Hu's on First??

Gotta love this...

Oh, btw, oakland and seattle pitchers and catchers report today, rest of MLB on Sunday (voluntary dates).

Soooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooon.

-C

Braves Add Dynamic Pricing

cthabeerman — Thu, 16 Feb 2012 00:22:40 -0000

Braves Add Dynamic Pricing

Great for Atlanta-based fans and the organization...when the stadium isn't going to fill, you might be able to get in quite a bit cheaper.

-C

Robinson Lopez released...

cthabeerman — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 20:49:14 -0000

Robinson Lopez released...

The Cubs released right-hander Robinson Lopez, according to Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (on Twitter). Chicago acquired Lopez from Atlanta in the 2010 Derrek Lee trade.

Remember when everyone was up in arms about trading him?? A candidate to come back into the fold??

-C

Out of Options - 2012

cthabeerman — Wed, 15 Feb 2012 16:47:39 -0000

Out of Options - 2012

Doesn't look like we can stash CMart in the minors to help out w/ DL issues like we have in the past. It also looks like Jairo Ascencio is up or out.

I'm going to take a second look through the list and see if there's any potential pickups that may be worthwhile if they don't make other teams' 25-man squads...

-C

Brandon Beachy: 3rd Best FB in MLB

cthabeerman — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 22:55:53 -0000

Brandon Beachy: 3rd Best FB in MLB

Pretty interesting stuff here...

Beachy was one of the league’s best starters on a per-inning basis, posting an 82 xFIP- that placed him ahead of (for example) Matt Garza, Tim Lincecum, and C.J. Wilson, and a strikeout rate of 28.6% that was better than any starter with at least 50 innings pitched — including Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, etc.

-C

Beers by Team

cthabeerman — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 20:58:58 -0000

Beers by Team

Hey, be proud, folks. Second best beer on the list...damn you again, Cardinals.

-C

Fangraphs' Marc Hulet ranks Braves prospects

cthabeerman — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 18:30:21 -0000

Fangraphs' Marc Hulet ranks Braves prospects

-C

Dynamic Ticket Pricing - Great Idea

cthabeerman — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 18:19:17 -0000

Dynamic Ticket Pricing - Great Idea

This could be a win-win for the Cardinals and their fans.

By rewarding early purchases and cutting the price of sparsely-attended contests before the event begins, fans can really find opportunities that put them in the ballpark at more affordable prices. The organization can reap rewards in adding to their attendance figures, and adding an even more loyal following as fans find the ballpark more accessible to them. Increased attendance adds to income not only through ticket sales, but also through more indirect means like concessions, advertising, et al.

I don't know how Busch is situated in St. Louis, but I know this would be killer for additional revenue in a city like Denver.

Braves, Bourn avoid arbitration

cthabeerman — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 17:26:59 -0000

Braves, Bourn avoid arbitration

Lower than the anticipated mark. Well-done, Wren.

-C

Greatest Animated Sports GIFs of 2011... Look at that Sea Bass D... -C

cthabeerman — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 17:03:35 -0000

Greatest Animated Sports GIFs of 2011...

Look at that Sea Bass D...

-C

Jurrjens and Prado for Adam Jones - Final 2011 Rosterbation Thread, NotTrades edition

cthabeerman — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 22:33:05 -0000

So, we all know that the Braves have been incredibly quiet on the FA/Trade front, despite a flurry of Winter Meetings rumors concerning the one and only Marteen Pray-do and Jair Jurrjens.

In this bi-monthly episode, let's rosterbate ourselves giddy with the hope of a more interesting 2012 Hot Stove season for the Braves. Sure, this thread won't quite make it to NYE, but we'll probably be sloggin' dranks and making fools of ourselves during those final days of December, anyway.

Since very little of our rosterbatory speculation ever comes to fruition, I've dubbed this the NotTrades edition, with a hat tip to NotGraphs. Let's have a little fun with this one...

Here's to an excellent holiday season and New Year for all!!

-C

So, we all know that the Braves have been incredibly quiet on the FA/Trade front, despite a flurry of Winter Meetings rumors concerning the one and only Marteen Pray-do and Jair Jurrjens.

Since very little of our rosterbatory speculation ever comes to fruition, I've dubbed this the NotTrades edition, with a hat tip to NotGraphs. Let's have a little fun with this one...

Here's to an excellent holiday season and New Year for all!!

-C

Wilson Ramos Kidnapped In Venezuela

cthabeerman — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 01:51:39 -0000

Wilson Ramos Kidnapped In Venezuela

Wow, just wow...maybe it's time to rethink where winter leagues are being played.

-C

Phillies sign Thome...

cthabeerman — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 23:20:55 -0000

Phillies sign Thome...

Looks like they found their replacement while Howard's away, while adding a big bench bat. I have to wonder if they'll flip him at the deadline to an AL team with DH needs...but for the price, they won't have to.

-C

Bowman: Braves willing to trade Jurrjens and Prado

cthabeerman — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 21:08:58 -0000

Bowman: Braves willing to trade Jurrjens and Prado

Dunno what to think...I think both could be moved, but would guess that it's still less than a 50/50 chance on both.

-C