This is the first in a 3 part series I'll be posting over the next 2 weeks. 1st is the honorable mention portion of my Cubs Top 30, next will be the Cubs Top 30, then finally a draft preview for potential players we could draft with our top 4 picks in the 2012 draft. BA has the Cubs system coming in 14th before the addition of 1B. Anthony Rizzo. In the Cubs top 10 chat Jim Callis said the system is middle of the pack but with outstanding depth.

The system is extremely deep but most of it resides in the DSL/R/lower minors. We have a ton of intriguing prospects and have explored just about every avenue in finding prospects known to man. These players are more likely to bust then even become a role player at the ML level. Even with those odds we have a lot of lottery tickets but the sheer volume of players we have stockpiled we should find some good players.

This HM list is not a slight on any of these players and you can very much make a case for many of them coming in somewhere at the back end of our top 30 list. A few of these players will vault up the top 30 list I'm sure if for nothing else the gratuations that will occur this year. The list in alphabetical order and even here there are some ommisions.

SS. Luis Acosta - Came in 9th on BA's top 30 IFA's for the July 2nd signing this past year. Short swing with power potential.Probably moves to 3B or a corner OF. Got 1.1M and Matt Garrioch said "Acosta has star potential. He runs hard out of the box as he finishes his strong swing." Should start 2012 in the DSL.

OF. Jeffrey Baez - Plus speed and power potential. Struggled in instructs and should start 2012 in AZL.

RHP. Zach Cates - Power arm aquired from S.D. w/ Rizzo. I like his potential and is a sleeper imo.

CF. Pin-Chieh Chen - Good speed slap hitter. Will have to stick in CF for lack of power.

C. Steve Clevenger - Puts good wood on the ball and has good PD. Lacks power but could make a good back up C.

CF. Taiwan Easterling - Debated on him for the top 30. Was my last cut and made BAs top 30 @28. Just 128 college ABs because of football. Barrels the ball well and it jumps off his bat. Looked good in instructs and in pro debut. Could really move up the charts in 2012. Lot's to like and should start 2012 in high A.

1B/3B. Trevor Gretzky - Raw but has good hand eye cordination and above average power potential.

RHP. Micheal Jansen - Got well above average slot money for a 26th rounder for $225,000. Power arm with some projection. Cubs realy like this kid.

LHP. Austin Kirk - Faded late in the year. Fringy FB but solid CB/CU.

RHP. Aaron Kurcz - Another guy I went back and forth on for the top 30. Stuff played up after move to the pen. 12.1 k/9 v. 8.2 as starter. 90-94 FB with deceptive delievery. Solid CB and great CU for a bullpen arm. With the move should move fast and start 2012 in AA.

RHP. Luis Lira

C. Justin Marra - Was considered a tough sign and looked good in instructs.

OF. Trey Martin - Plus Speed and good hand eye cordination. Very projectable player.

RHP. Starlin Peralta - Good FB but needs work on command/control.

RHP. Austin Reed - Awfull numbers in 1st proball taste. Looked much improved in instructs. Gets GB.

C. Neftali Rosario - Good arm and power. Needs work on PD. Looked good in 1st taste of proball but really struggled in instructs.

LF. Garrett Schlecht - A guy i really like. Outstanding eye and good hand eye cordination. Has some potential to add some power. Will be relagated to LF which hurts his overall prospect status. Took 9 BB in 33 PA in instructs. Sleeper.

2B/OF. Rubi Silva - For his skill set his PD is atrocious (16/95 BB/K). 6/6 sb/cs. Plus speed and has some dynamic ability.

RHP. Nick Struck - Good FB but well below average secondary stuff will hold him back.

RHP. Robert Whitenack - Ranked 19th on BAs top 30 even with TJS. Was really opening eyes before injury. A case could be made for top 30 consideration but he will not pitch until late 2012 and could take until mid 2013 for stuff to return.

I'm about to post a 2 year plan for the Cubs but I have been thinking on Yu Darvish. Before I make that post I would like to generate some thoughts on Darvish. Anyone not familiar with Darvish, he is widely considered the best pitcher not in the U.S.A. From what I'm reading he may be posted by Nippon this off season. Posting means that his controling team may offer him to the highest american bidder. Many Japenesse players have went through this porocess including but not limited to Ichiro, Hideo Nomo, and, Dice-K. Dice-k, I believe, holds the highest posting at 50 million. This posting amount is not an actuall contract offer but just the right to negotiate with said player. I think all told Matsuzakas total amount to aquire him by the Red Sox was roughly 100 million.

Let's start with the book on Yu Darvish. Darvish has been an elite propsect since junior high. He was his high school's top pitcher by 15. Without getting to much into his H.S. years by the time he was done he was considered among the top ametuer players for the 2004 draft. His professional career has been outstanding. By the tender age of 20 he was his profesional teams best pitcher. At this point let's take a look at what he has to offer repertiore wise.

Darvish does resemble Matsuzaka in some ways especially considering his wide variety of pitches he throws. A string bean when he began his career as a 18 year old, Darvish, has since added weight to his 6'4 frame now weighing a stout but athletic 220 pounds. Throwing from a high three quarters arm slot with a drop and drive motion that I like. To start his four seam FB sits 91-94 and can touch 97. His "slurve" sits 77-80 with hard bite and break. I've heard and I'm saying I have not seen this personally, but 1 guy I talked to says it would rival the pre TJS Kerry Wood slurve circa 1998.
 

Note: Woods slurve, especially, the Astros game when he 1 hit 20 k, is probably the the most devastating pitch I have ever seen from any pitcher. Flat out unhittable. I don't think that Darvish has this pitch but I'm just putting it out there. At the least the pitch is a swing and miss pitch that is considered plus (widely thought) to plus-plus (have heard this also).

Darvish also throws a good sinker and cutter. He aslo offers a solid CB, splitter and CU. I have not read anything on his command/control but his numbers in Japan pro ball indicate that he has solid to plus control. He spots his pitches well, does not walk many, and has an excelent K/BB rate. Darvishs numbers in Japan are SICK.

My personal thought: My only chance to see Darvish pitch was in the 2009 WBC.I do not claim to be a scout but this was what I came away with. I had the  feeling that he was a good maybe really good pitcher. His stuff was solid to good and he mixed his pitches well but I did not see that elite type stuff nor the command that was hyped. Now mind you this was only 3 games and on a really big stage for the 1st time in his career. I liked him though but his movement on his FB was just slightly better then ML average. Like I said above this was an extremely small smaple size but this is my only  chance to see him pitch live against good competition.

Analysis: Now many scouts consider Darvish an elite prospect and feel his stuff is much better then what I have noted. The scouts are probably closer to reality then my small take but I still feel he may be at least slightly overhyped. Mind you this is a guy I own in many fantasy leagues where owning this type of IFA is legal. I do like Darvish very much and he will just be entering his prime once (IF) he enters ML baseball this year. 1 major thing to be noted the Japnesses ball is slightly smaller then the ML baseball. While this will not add velocity imho it does allow for more break/bite/movement on pitches.

The thing is Junichi Tazawa was given a 3.3 million dollar ML contract by the Red Sox to sign after Japanesse college (forgoing the Japanesse draft). Now the intial reports out of Japan on his SL was that it was above average. After seeing 4 minor league games and 2 Ml games his SL, was imho, just ML average at it's best.

Discusion: 1st off Darvish is going to be posted via bidding. The guy is so hyped I could see some team, namely the Yankees or Red Sox offering something in the neigborhood of 70-80 million ( I would not rule out a 100 million dollar offer by the pitching starved and cash flush Yankees). That is just for the rights to negotiate with Darvish. I would imagine he would want more then the 5 year 60 million Matsuzaka got. I'm thinking 150-170 million total to aquire Darvish. I admit the Cubs have not been linked to him and that ownships conservative style probably means this is not plausible, but.................................................. If we went after Fielder we would need some SP.

So anyone interested and be mindfull that I am more conservative of players that I consider "unknown" such as Darvish.

Is this something we should persue?

Is the price worth the potential?

How much should we be willing to pay?

How good do you think Darvish can be? (anything you can add to my post)

System Overview: The bad. This system is not very good at the higher minors. It lacks impact players. Yes I've heard a scout said the Cubs had more probable ML players then any other system. The problem is it's a solid ML average player (Jackson maybe Vitters), 4th OF type (Ha), UTL (Flaherty, LeMahieu, Cerda, Watkins), Mid rotation SP (McNutt, though he has the upside of a 2), and bullpen arms (Carpenter, Dolis, Beliveau, potentially McNutt also). Nice players to fill out a contending roster but not players you win championships on their backs. Josh77 had a great article about past W.S. winners and how they all had I think 2 HOF caliber (or already HOF) players on their rosters. They also need 2-4 above average ML players. Josh link that article in this thread if you could. I think  it helps to make a point and it was just a flat out good read. Hopefully we have that 1st piece of perenial A.S. in Castro.

The good. Ricketts have spent something like 20-25 million on IFA's the last 2 years and the draft this year. We have a huge influx of talent but it is all very far away from making any impact on the ML roster. It's gonna take a few years to sort out who is actually good and who flames out. Hopefully with just the pure number of players we have signed potenialy we can get another Castro caliber player and a couple above average ML players. Only time will tell. The thing is the strength of our system is now mostly potenial. I asked JiM Callis today in his prospect chat where he thought the Cubs system ranked and he said that the system was middle of the pack with very good depth. The ranking is actually optimistic imo. I wold said no better then 20 and probably closer to the 25 range.

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The 2011 Cubs draft has been a bit of a roller coster for me. We missed out on my some of my favorite players especially when Rendon started to slide (though realisticaly it was never gonna happen) and passed on college studs like Gray and Springer, who were still available @9. Getting Baez @ 9 is solid and grew on me after reading more info on him. While he wasn't on my original draft radar I did see he was moving up draft boards leading up to the draft.

I like the fact we went so H.S. heavy and this draft had the feel of a T.B. Rays draft.  While I've always said that drafting a H.S. bat is the riskiest player to draft you have a much better chance of finding a sleeper/diamond in the rough then with a college bat Mark Grace (24th round/S.D. State) not withstanding. After the 200-300 players drafted scouting reports start to get hit and miss so guys like Josh77, Ryno G, RynoRooter, SenorGato,Tim815, and the other draft savvy members of this community please add anything I missed/potenitaly got wrong, or just interesting side notes. I'm hoping to make this thread an informitive place to get a clear picture on our draft this year.  

At this point there is no way to grade our draft because our success or lack there of will hinge on signing guys like Dunston Jr., Maples, Jacquez, and a few others. As far as guessing what we will spend it's also tough and if ownership is really going to attempt to sign some of these tough signs our total could land somewhere in the 6-7 million range. So here we go with just some quick short responses to some of our picks:

Of coarse the talk starts with Javier Baez and I have already done a short scouting report:

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/6/6/2210192/javier-baez-scouting-report

And Josh77 did a more in-depth report:

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2011/6/7/2210877/2011-mlb-draft-cubs-welcome-to-ss-javier-baez

So I won't beat this to death. Baez has 1 of the quickest bats in the draft and has been compared to Gary Sheffield in terms of bat speed. The similarities don't end there. Bat speed, area, ameteur position, explsiviness, and attitude. Imo Baez instincts are better then Sheffield's at the same age but weather or not it translate's only time will tell. Baez will probably move off SS....Dan Vogelbach.....I would have liked this pick more in the 3rd then 2nd. His bat will need to carry him. I heard some Prince Fielder comps on this site and that is not even close. Fielder had elite Power/Eye/even hit tool coming out of H.S. and his athletism is underated. Calling him even a poor man's Fielder is a bit rich. I'd say a less athletic version of Matt LaPorta (ouch) is closer.......Zeke DeVoss....After checking in @ work I was less then enthuised by this pick. He's got a good eye, athletisim, and speed but outside of yoiur elite 1st rounders i.e. Mike Trout/Jacoby Ellsbury I think players with this profile tend to be a tad overrated. I don't hate this pick but felt we could hae done better and he does have some upside. Best case senario is Micheal Brantley....Tony Zych...Real nice pick here since I felt he would go in the s1st or early second. Looks more like a set up guy then a true closer but has mid-to-upper 90's FB w/ a potnetial above-average slider. Should move fast and keep costs down......Tayler Scott....6'2, athletic, and projectable. This is where I started coming back up. Sit's low 90's w/ a promising CB.....Neftali Rosario...Good defender @ C w/ a nice arm and power. A project but could be a real sleeper out of Puerto Rico......Trevor Gretzky....Again more projection. Has power potential and needs to work on his hitting. Obviously the son of Wayne Gretzky and has good hand-eye cordination.....Garrett Schlecht....Illinios native. Probably a LF but has good contact skills and w/ a quick LH bat....Daniel Lockhart...son of a former big leaguer athletic w/ a good LH stroke.

Shawn Dunston Jr......Considered a tough sign but I'm hearing he's very open to signing w/ the Cubs now. CF with excellent speed, line drive LH stroke, and passion for the game. Probably would have gone higher had he not had an inconsistent senior season this year. Very raw but some scouts had him rated in the top 150 players......Dillon Maples.......Top 50 talent fell to the 14th rd. based on signability. 91-94 mph FB that can touch mid 90's with a good CB. Mechanics need some work but has athletism to make the nessary adjustments. CU is a work in progress. This pick is the key to our draft. If we can sign him our draft would go from solid to excellent. Probably gonna take 1.5-2 million to ink him. Has a strong commitment to home state Tar Heels.....Justin Marra.....Canada product. LH C prospect with good catch and throw skills with pop and has shown the ability to hit quality pitching....

So that's the highlights on the top 15 and I don;t want to make this to long of a read so I'm just gonna highlight a handfull more that I really like. This obviously won't be the only guys with upside we drafted after the 15th. Again please feel free to highlight some of your favriotes I missed.

23rd. Bradley Zimmer - 6'5 and lanky has average speed and a nice LH stroke with power potential once he fills out.

26th. Micheal Jensen -  Small stature (6'0 190) but lively arm, low 90s FB and power curve.

31st. Ronnie Richardson - Small (5'7) but dynamic switch hitter. Went in the 11th rd. out of H.S. and is a draft eligable soph. Has good speed and solid defender in CF. Needs to be more consistent.

39th. Ricky Jacquez - Another player who is small in stature standing just 5'9 160 but has an electric arm. FB sits 92-94 and can run it up as high as 97. An excellent athlete who has a true hammer curve. Reminds me a lot of a RH Billy Wagner. A Texas recruit and the fact that he lasted until the 39th round probably means he won't sign.

Overall I think we should sign most of our top 10 picks and have heard Dunston Jr. is very open to signing with the Cubs. If we can sign Maples I think our draft goes from C/C+ range ot B/B+. I could see if the Cubs get spurned by Dunston Jr. and Maples they will go after Jaquez very agressively. I think we went with a lot of high upside power hitters and of coarse power arms. 

I the Cubs fail to sign any of Maples, Dunston Jr., Jacquez, and a few others, or any, I wouldn't hold management responsible. I think they will make agressive offers for all but what it comes down to is what a 17/18 year old kid wants to do. The Cubs have spent heavily in Latin America and spent 3 million on Szczur and the 2 Cuban kids so I think they are willing to spend some money on ametuer talent.

I'll come back after signing day and grade out the draft. I'll also be p[utting together my mid season Cubs top 30 here soon. I have been working on this over the past few days and have been pressed for time so please excuse the spelling errors.

This is just a quick run down on the scouting report for the Cubs 2011 1st round (9th overall) pick.

SS. 6'1 205 Arlington Country Day H.S./Jacksonville Fla.

This is a player who was not on my radar for the Cubs pick but has been moving up draft boards as the draft has been coming up. Baez is an explosive player who's bat profiles better then Francisco Lindor's who went a pick ahead @ 8 to the Indians. Lindor's SS defense is much better then Baez but his bat could play @ multiple positions. Prior to the pick I heard Hanley Ramirez type tools ( though not sure what his speed is).

Baez has good hitting ability and above average to plus power. The thing that stands out Is his bat speed which may have been the best in the draft and is getting Gary Sheffield comps. He can be to agressive @ times which is normal for many H.S. prospects. His offensive ceiling can rival anyones in the draft. With the questions about his range probably means he will move off SS. He does have the arm and offensive tools to make the move to 3B. Ihave heard some teams were interested in his potenial behind the plate but I think this would be a disservice to his development. He may also profile better as an offensive minded 2B.

There are some questions about his make up and attitude. He does have good baseball instincts. I like his athletic body and he has the look of a ball player. I don't think signability should be a problem. Overall I like his explosiveness and potential with the bat. I'm fairly happy w/ this pick (although I was higher on Springer)  and think he should be a force with the bat. There are many similarities between Baez and Gary Sheffield in temrs of bat speed, ametuer position, where they both went to school, explosiveness and, attitude.

BA did an article on Trey McNutt but it's pay to see but figured I could give the community the highlight's. It's a very encouraging piece in that McNutt is becoming a more complete pitcher. Nothing new with the article saying he ran his four seam FB to the mid 90's. Also showed an at times 'lively" two seam FB. Left some pitches up in the zone which was a concern coming into the year.

It seem's McNutt has 2 beaking pitches (CB and SL). The CB get's called a SL sometimes because it has 2 plane break but say's both pitches are distintly different. It does go on to say that niether is a true wipeout pitch (like I had thought) but are still swing and miss pitches.

The best part of the article though, is that he is showing a very promising CU. Still being used sparingly it has nice sink and 8-10 mph difference from his FB. He used it to strike out a ML hitter (Fred Lewis who was on rehab assignment). McNutt said it's now his favorite pitch.

So real good news here as some were projecting McNutt as potentially a late inning power arm out oif the bullpen. The thing that I will be watching closely is how long he goes into games this year. While he put up an outstanding season last year his average outing was only 4 2/3 innings. Some of that could be contributed to leaving a couple outings early but he did put on 15 pounds so hopefuly that bodes well for his stamina.  McNutt will be the most closely monitored Cub farmhand by me. I'm really hoping scoutingthesally.com will get a chance to see him in Tennesssee this year.

Baseball America just released their mid season top 50:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2011/2611568.html

Again this draft class is LOADED. You got guys sitting mid 1st round who would be top 3 in another year. The Cubs sitting #9 are in a position to nab a really good player. Here is my quick moch draft to see what could possibly be avaiable for us and it looks very promising. Things will change from now until draft day but I think this will be fun to see what's waiting in our future.

1. Pirates - 3B. Anthony Rendon - Callis called this guy super human and has said numerous times he would take Rendon over Bryce Harper.

2. Mariners - RHP Gerrit Cole - Could be better then Srasburg w/ better mechanics. About as close as you can get to surefire ace in the MLB draft as it gets.

3. D'backs - LHP Danny Hultzen - D'backs are in love w/ Hultzen and Mike Newman of scoutingthesally.com calls him the 2nd best pitcher he's scouted behind Julio Teheran. Newman said in an outing he saw Hultzen carried mid 90s stuff late into the game w/ a plus slider and CU.

4. Orioles - RHP Sonny Gray - Little torn here on what the O's would do sitting @4 but Gray is a polished SP who would give them a nice 1-2-3 punch w/ Britton/Matusz.

5. Royals - OF Bubba Starling - The Royals  have proven they will spend large amounts of money on HS talent and Starling is from the area and has enormous upside.

6. Nationals - SS Francisco Lindor - With as much college talent tlaent as there is I wouldn't go Lindor but does make some sense for the Nats.

7. D'Backs - RHP Tony Zych - Again I could see the Dbacks going with Zych who is more of a 2nd rounder and should sign for cheaper then the average 7 pick. Can hit 98 w/ a good slider and would move fast.

8. Indians - LHP Jed Bradley - COuld go 4 to the O's maybe but has really improved his stock since the begining of the year. I'd love for the Cubs grab him if avaiable but not looking likely at this point. Good 3 pitch mix, command and polish. W/ Pomeranz/White/Materson would form a nice young staff.

So here we are @ 9 and there is a ton of good players still available here. I'll run down a handful of my favorites.

OF George Springer - Has slipped a bit this year but is starting to turn it on after a slow start. 18/22 BB/K with power speed combo and has the tools to be a premium defender in CF. Swing can get long but has dominated the last 2 years on the Cape which I know socuts put a lot of stock in. I have a hard time believing he'd be available @ 9 for the Cubs but if he is would be really hard to pass on.

RHP Trevor Bauer - A bit of Tim Lincecum in him has run his FB up to 98 this year. Good command to go w/
curveball, changeup, split-finger, slider and "reverse-slider". Bauer has grown on me this year and very well would be a great pick for us.

LHP Matt Purke - Draft stock is sliding because of inconsistent year so far. Has an emormous ceiling but even with that I'd be hard pressed to take a chance on him considering how much talent is avaiable. He also could return to school to try and improve draft status and may be prudent considering how ridiculously loaded this draft class is.

RHP Taylor Jungmann -  The fastball sits in the low-90s and can touch 95. He also shows the foundation for a knock-out slider and a plus-changeup. His mechanics need some work, as he can get a little out of rhythm at times making his delivery look like his arms and legs are all over the place, but that’s nothing a little refining and maturation at the next level coudn't fix. Has been dominant this year.

RHP Dylan Bundy - Top HS arm has a mid 90's FB w/ 4 pitch mix and good mechanics. Not sure the Cubs would go HS considering how much college talent will be there for us.

Also in the running but imo not as likely as the players profiled above are CF Jackie Bradley Jr., RHP Matt Barnes, prep ams Archie Bradley and Daniel Norris.

Please discuss your opinion and add anyhting to the short reports I've posted.

1. Pirates - RHP. Gerrit Cole UCLA

With McCutcheaon/Alvarez/Walker/Tabata forming a nice young offense and Sanchez/Marte on the way Cole should establish himself as an ace caliber SP while Tailion/Allie/Herdia/ZVR/Cain mature.

2. Mariners - 3B Anthony Rendon Rice

The M's would gladly take Rendon or Cole here. Which ever one is available they will take.

3. D'Backs - OF. George Springer UCONN

While Purke is usually linked here with his agent and extra leverage combined with 2 picks in the top 7 may see them going with Springer.  

4. Orioles - LHP Matt Purke TCU

Purke would be great vlaue here and look nice sloted behind Matusz/Britton.

5. Royals - OF. Bubba Starlin Knasas H.S.

The Royals will spend money in the draft (24.5 million over the last 3 years) and are apt to take H.S. bats high (Moustakas/Hosmer/Myers). Starlin has been linked to the Royals because of his proximity to KC.

6. Nationals - RHP Taylor Junmenn Texas

Would fit nicely behind Strasburg and both should be ready at about the same time.

7. D'Backs - RHP Tony Zych Louisville

The D'Backs could go the route the Nats went in 2009. Zych is a closer with apower arm who profiles as a sup1st or early 2nd rd. so he should sign quick and realitively cheap.\

8. Indians - RHP Sonny Gray Vanderbilt

Polished SP who would fit nicely with the last 2 years college pitchers (White/Pomeranz). # polished college pitchers to go with an emergingyoung line up.

9. Cubs - LHP Jed Bradley Georgia Tech

This is a good position to be in w/ J. Bradley, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Daniel Norris still available. I go with the college lefty because of the proven track record, good repertoire, and great command. In "Ask BA" yesterday Callis reiterated that a scout told him he would take Jed Bradley over any pitcher in the draft. That's a mouth full considering how deep this draft is. He's polished, will move fast, and fit's a need.

Last year anyone who read my pre-draft stuff knows how much I loved Chris Sale and we all know how he did last year with a bright future. Drew Pomeranz went 4th overall and might have a slight edge in overall stuff but Bradley's command is better. I would take Bradley over both these college lefties from last year.

Norris is probably a dream for us considering the depth of elite college pitching and Wilkens propensity to go for college plahyers w/ his 1st.

Jackie Bradley Jr. I wouldn't have a problem with either but his elite tool is his 80 arm. While I feel he can stick in CF so his power will profile there he's also not a true burner. He's athletic, good PD, and hit tool so if we go bat I'd take him.

This is just my quick early take on things from everyhting I've been reading. Like Chris Sale last year Jed Bradley is fast becoming the player I am falling in love with who has a chance for us to draft. The fact that Bradley is also a LHSP has nothing to do with it. It's merely coincidence.

Baseball America just finished an international signing review for all the divisions and surprisingly the Cubs signed some guys I had not heard about. I think everyone is aware of Kim, Sanchez, and 2 Cubans but I found some interesting guys who we gave good money to. The article in question is from pay content so I'll just highlight it for the community. Aside from Kim and the Cubans I think mos tof these guys will start in the DSL so we probably won't hear much on them for a year or 2. Everyone listed is 4-6 years (maybe longer or if ever) away from the ML.

I also noted in the cases of Kim and Sanchez the bonus amount BA lists is different from what I had previously read. Kim I had read signed for $1.2 million but BA says $850K not sure why the differnece and I'd be interested in finding out why. And Daniel Sanchez who is now know as Francisco Sanchez (Daniel was his middle name) is reported by BA to have revcieved $350K and not the $550K I had read before. It seems the name change had nothing to do with identity change so I don't think that is the reason.

While we have been very agressive and among the leaders for Pacific Rim IFA the article also notes that we are growing our presence in Latin America, adding scouting, and planning to build an Dominican Acedemy. I'm gonna skip doing Kim, Sanchez, and the 2 Cubans since there is nothing new to report that I have not either reported myself already or read from another member.

So I'll give a quick run down for everyone:

SS. Carlos Penalver - Venezuelan  ($550K) -  A 16-year-old righthanded hitter, Penalver has an athletic 6-foot, 170-pound frame with good hands, body control and footwork. He's an above-average runner with good instincts and should stick at shortstop. Penalver's medium frame doesn't project for power, but he has good bat speed and the ability to control the barrel with a line-drive stroke.

3B.  Jeimer Candelario - Dominican Republic ($500K) - A thickly-built 6-foot, 185 pounds, Candelario is a switch-hitter who stands out with his potential to hit for average and power. Candelario has some movement in his setup but he generates power with good present strength—particularly in his hands—bat speed and advanced feel at the plate. Candelario is a below-average runner and his defense is behind his bat, but he does have a strong arm at third.

OF.  Jeffrey Baez - Venezuelan  ($350K) -  Baez, 17, is a 6-foot, 170-pound righthanded hitter with athleticism, speed and a long-levered, projectable body. He's a plus-plus runner who could slow down as he fills out, but he has the present speed to play center field, good body control and an average arm. Baez's bat is still coming along but he has projectable power.
Mejias has good arm speed and sits in the mid-to-high 80s with some sink to his fastball, topping out at 90 mph. He's shown some feel for an inconsistent curveball with good bite and rotation, though he's had mixed results in the international tournaments in which he's participated.


LHP.  Angel Mejias - Venezuelan (?) - 6'3 180 Mejias has good arm speed and sits in the mid-to-high 80s with some sink to his fastball, topping out at 90 mph. He's shown some feel for an inconsistent curveball with good bite and rotation, though he's had mixed results in the international tournaments in which he's participated.

RHP.   Gilberto Abreu - Dominican Republic (?) - 6'2 180 At 17, Abreu has good arm action and an 87-91 mph fastball that could be a plus pitch once he fills out his projectable body. He's still learning to throw strikes, though, after recording twice as many walks (28) as strikeouts (14) in 27 innings last year in the Dominican Summer League.

RHP. Alexander Santana - Dominican Republic (?) - 6'2 180 Santana has a large, projectable frame. His arm works well and he gets good extension out front on his 87-91 mph fastball with above-average sink and a good curveball for his age.

SS. Antonio Gonzalez - Dominican Republic (?) -
a 5-foot-10, 165-pound switch-hitter, signed with the Cubs in December. Gonzalez doesn't have flashy tools but he has good baseball instincts and is solid in the field. He has good hands, quick feet and should stick at either shortstop or second base. Gonzalez will never be a power hitter but he has a decent bat and a contact-oriented stroke.

C.  Alberto Mineo - Italy ($225K) - 16,  5'11 165, and LH stands out for his catch-and-throw skills. His strong hands and forearms help his receiving and he has good defensive instincts. Mineo doesn't project as a power hitter and he's still ironing out his mechanics at the plate, but he has the makings of solid, flat swing. Mineo enrolled in an accelerated high school program and is expected to stay in Italy to work out at the European Academy before coming to the United States, likely in 2012.

So there are some pretty interesting guys with potential. I would like to point out while some in this community blast the Ricketts for being cheap I say they are just not informed. The money to add international scouting and an acedemy is an awfull lot. The guys who I had ? for bonuses it is reported they were all 6 figure. So even for ? you put a number of 100K on we spent at least 5 million in international signings over the least year and ponied up 1.5 million for Szczur. Those facts stated above leave me very encouraged and I expect to see the Cubs spend more on the draft thsi year then the 2 previous years.

We have 2 opeings for active Dynasty League with minor league draft currently going.

Team A.

Jesus Montero

Derek Norris

Jason Kipnis

Dellin Betances

Carlos Martinez

Team B

Julio Teheran

Jake Odorizzi

Gary Sanchez

Wilin Rosario

Also owns a skipped 5th rd. pick that may be used immediatetly

It's a 10x10 league. We are currently doing our MILB draft on the message board. The ML draft is set for Sunday March 13, 7pm EST. Teams are capped @ 10 total prospects. Stevenhoffmanslowey, doublestix, mathisrocks, and myself make up some of the league members. Looking for regular posters and active members.

http://games.espn.go.com/flb/leagueoffice?leagueId=25213

If your interested please leave your email for invite.

Thanks and sorry for taking up space on the community's fanposts.

I have a 20 team ESPN league starting.

10X10 H2H Most Cat.

40 man roster

Looking for ownes who have prospect knowledge and are active daily. League has cbox and rotoworld player news. Will probably add more to the league. We will have a preliminary 5 rd. prospect draft on the league message board. Once this is I will load the prospects on your roster then have the MLB draft. Each team will be capped at 10 prospects per roster. I'm having the prospect draft 1st and capping the prospects at 10 to avoid those owners who will sell off all their ML players for prospects.This will keep the whole league competive.

I've played in leagues where prospects were kept on diferent sites and find it to be sometimes be confusing at times. Each team will keep 35-37 players each ( we will vote on this) then have a small draft each year for incoming prospects that are added to the ESPN universe. Here is the link to league:

http://games.espn.go.com/flb/leagueoffice?leagueId=25213

Leave your email if interested.

I have a 20 team ESPN league starting.

10X10 H2H Most Cat.

40 man roster

Looking for ownes who have prospect knowledge and are active daily. League has cbox and rotoworld player news. Will probably add more to the league. We will have a preliminary 5 rd. prospect draft on the league message board. Once this is I will load the prospects on your roster then have the MLB draft. Each team will be capped at 10 prospects per roster. I'm having the prospect draft 1st and capping the prospects at 10 to avoid those owners who will sell off all their ML players for prospects.This will keep the whole league competive.

I've played in leagues where prospects were kept on diferent sites and find it to be sometimes be confusing at times. Each team will keep 35-37 players each ( we will vote on this) then have a small draft each year for added incoming prospects that are added to the ESPN universe. Here is the link to league:

http://games.espn.go.com/flb/leagueoffice?leagueId=25213

Leave your email if interested.

I know SenorGato made a post for the 2011 draft but I felt I wanted to get more in depth with a post since the college season will be getting started soon. We hold the #9 overall pick and a 2nd rounder that should land somewhere around 70 in an extraordinaryly deep draft. So 2 of the top 100 players should land in our system. The Cubs took a step in the right direction in an underrated 2010 draft. With our 2nd rounder we went after a 1st round talent (Golden) and a couple of late round (7th and 12th) H.S. pitchers who were considered tough signs but with considerable talent. Wells and Reed cost us a mere 650K.

This is a trend that needs to continue especially after losing 4 of our top prospects. The byproduct of holding the #9 overall pick alone should finally push the Cubs over the 5 million mark for dollars spent in the draft. While many have critized the Ricketts thus far for being cheap, I applaud the restrant shown in not trying to throw around a lot of money on FA just for the sake of it. They have said they will put more money in player development. The 2010 draft budget may very well have been already set so I give them a pass there.

They did give Szczur 1.5 million to buy him out of playing football so that is very encoraging.(Update: The Cubs also just spent 1.5 million on 2 Cuban defectors). So while some are already passing judgement on ownership I will hold my opinions untill I see what is spent on the 2011 draft. As stated above we should break the 5 million mark if for nothing else then holding the 9th pick so I will be looking for us to spend 6 million. If we break the 7 or 8 million mark I will dance a jig.  The Phillies top 3 prospects were picked as follows; Dom Brown 20th rd. (200k), Johnathan Singleton 8th rd. (200K), and Brody Colvin 7th rd. (900K). So for a mere 1.3 million dollar investment in late round tough signs they netted 3 elite prospect. We would be wise to follow this blueprint.

Now I am very intrigued by Daniel Norris, a lefty with a 92-96 mph FB, power CB that may be plus, and an advanced CU for H.S. arm. This is a high end arm that would also fill a need, TOR LH SP. Many say that taking H.S. arms is to much of a gamble.  While I agree it is slightly higher of a gamble it's not what many make it out to be especially considering when you hit with high end H.S. player it can payoff big. I will say with a good senior season he may be asking for a 5.5 million dollar bonus ala Jacob Turner circa 2009 and if we don't want to put all of our eggs in 1 basket per say I can see the prudence in this.

Now if we don't want to take the risk to spend this type of money on a 1st rd. H.S. arm I can see the argument. What we need to do then is target 3, 4, 5, 6-10, round H.S. arms. The T.B. Rays have shown a blueprint for this. The Rays have drafted as follows: Wade Davis (3rd 2004), Jeremy Hellickson (4th 2005), Jake McGee (5th 2004), Nick Barnese (3rd 2007),  Matt Moore (8th 2007), and Joe Cruz (30th 2007) to name just a few. Add in James Shields and that's 3/5 of their 2011 staff (Davis and Hellickson), future closer (McGee), an elite prospect who should join the rotation by 2012 (Moore) and 2 excellent prospects (barnese and Cruz). This is just to name some. This again is a blueprint we would be wise to follow.

Some feel that H.S. arms are 2 volitile but if you take a H.S. arm like these there are some benfiits. To start you can limit their IP early, get them on your oprganizations throwing programs, and maybe the biggest is to start teaching them the CU which even at the college level is normally lagging.

 As it stands now, baring injury,  Rendon, Purke, Cole, and Springer (now Goodwin) will surely go before the Cubs pick at 9. I touched on Norris above so that's 5 maybe 6 of the 8 picks before the Cubs. Now of coarse things could change from now until the draft but I'm not even sure a poor 2011 for the 4 (5) college kids would drop them much considering past performances and tools.

The teams drafting ahead of the Cubs like the Royals, O's, Pirates, and Nats have been agressive in the draft and have shown they will throw a ton of money into the draft. With the Dbacks holding the #3 and #7 overall may see them take a less talented player with the 7 because of the price to sign 2 high picks. So potnetially we should land 1 of the top 8 players in the draft.

I pieced these scouting reports together from 2 years of Cape Code reports (PG), BA Cape Code reports (2010), and a variety of other things I've read on the web. Please note that I've done the best I can at finding accurate SR and am in no way saying this is the final book on these players. Also note that it was much harder to find scouting reports on the H.S. talent thus why they are slimmer in content and aslo considering they don't fit Wilkens 1st rd. profile so I spent less time on them.

College

OF. Jackie Bradley - S. Carolina -

Switch hitter who fits Wilkens mold of safe college bat and may be the pick. His most impressive tool is his near 80 arm (on the standard 20-80 scouting scale). Has good CF range but may profile better as a RF. Not a true burner but has above average speed and was 10-13  in SBO in 2009 on the Cape. Has good bat speed and makes consistent contact. Has yet to show anything more then gap-gap power but a wrist injury in 2010 may have sapped his power potential. May develop power in 2011. Has 1 of the best combinations of tools and performance. This polished college bat should move fast and would combine with BJax to form 2/3 of a really well rounded OF for the Cubs.

LHP. Jed Bradley - Georgia Tech -

While many are advocating RHPs like Gray, Jungman, and,  Barnes we already own many RH power pitches in the system. While we have some interesting LHP in the system none imo profile as long term SP options as of yet. Bradley would fix this and should move fast. Has a good body, 6'3 205, and was said to be 1 of the most impressive arms on the Cape in 2010. According to PG he had the best command on the Cape, sporting a K/BB ratio of 44/8 in 41 IP and leading the Cape in SO. FB sits 88-92 and peaks at 95. Compliments his FB with a hard-80s slider and effective to plus CU depending on what report you read.

OF. Brian Goodwin - Miami Dade CC -

Would not have been eligable for the 2011 draft until suspended from UNC and transfered to a CC. Maybe should have been included with the 4 college kids I specified would for sure go before the Cubs pick since I've heard he may be the 3rd best player on the board now. Goodwin has impressive tools but is very raw right now. Maybe the most impressive set of tools in the draft starting with raw power and speed both grading as plus to plus-plus. Was rated as the 2nd best athlete and fastest baserunner on the Cape in 2010. With more expierence combined with his top end speed should be able to stick in CF and has the arm for RF. Made significant strides with strength and swing in his 1 year out of H.S. As I wirite this Goodwin probably replaces Springer as 1 of the 4 sure fire players to go ahead of the Cubs. The reason I profile Goodwin here is being a CC player does give him ectra leverage and his tools probably will see him asking for a huge bonus which may scare some teams off, doubtful someone doesn;t take a chacne but  still..............maybe it's me just dreaming lol.

RHP. Sonny Gray - Vanderbilt -

This is many on the BCBs favriote for the Cubs choice at 9. Gray is smallish, 6'0 195, but the Cubs drafted him in the 27th rd. in '08 and already have shown they are not afraid to take pitchers of this stature i.e. Hayden Simpson. Gray has frontline stuff and is a excellent athlete. He sits in the low 90s with his FB late into games and his whip like arm can touch the mid 90s. He also features a mid 80s slider that is unhittable when on. He's a bulldog on the mound and may well go before the Cubs pick at 9. While we already have numerous players who priofile like him I would not be disapointed if he were our pick. You can never have to much pitching.

OF. George Springer - UConn -

Above I said that Springer was probably gonna go before the Cubs pick at 9 but with Goodwin now being draft eligable this may change things. I figure Rendon, Purke, Cole, and Goodwin a safe bet to go in the top 4 picks, at least 1 or 2 of Gray/Jungmann possibly Barnes/Armstrong, 1 or 2 of the top H.S. arms (Norris/Bradley/Bundy) and the fact that the Dbacks own 2 picks in the top 7 and probably take a lesser easier sign talent @ 7 potentially pushes Springer to us. While I say this is unlikely it is possible. Springer is a 5 tool talent who if fell to us @ 9 would/should be the pick and instantly becomes the #1 prospect in the system. On the Cape in 2010, according to PG, he was rated as the best athlete and 2nd best power. At  6'3 200 with explosive bat speed generating plus raw power. Also features plus arm and speed and is a fine defender in CF.

Overview -

As of right now I'm gonna pass on profiling any H.S. players that ma be available and worthy of the #9 pick considering Wilkens recent 1st round picks. This draft is deep and should land us a high end talent. After spending another 1.5 million on a couple of Cuban defectors gives me even more hope on what may be spent on the 2011 draft. It's not just the #9 pick which is key for us it's the fact that so much high end H.S. talent will be available in the later rounds that we need to tap into. Hopefully we will. I know it's early for this but I love doing this and find it very fun. I will continue to follow the draft and update things. I did my 2010 work on wrigleybound.com but since the site is debunk now I will now do this on the BCB if this is somehting that interests the community.

This piece was orginally wrote for the readers on the BCB but i am posting here because I respect a lot of the opinions on this site and want to get some feedback. I am including a poll to see where the community thinks the system ranks in the wake of the Garza deal. I know it's a long read but hopefully you'll find it interesting.

The Cubs system took a hit with the addition of Matt Garza from the Rays in exchange for 4 of our best prospects. Jim Callis said before the trade the Cubs system would have rnaked 8th according to Baseball America. In the aftermath of the trade the system obviously will fall but there is still good depth and a system full of intriguing players. The system now probably falls somewhere in the back end of the teens. While I was a fan of aquiring Garza the price was steep but I don't feel it was as bad as what some made it out to be. The concensus of scouts and GMs was the Cubs gave up good but not elite prospects.

While the price was probably an overpay we did deal from positions of strength within the system. I was never sold on Archer as a SP and thought he would end up in the bullpen. Guyer was more of a 4th OF and while I like Chirinos he was a back up for us as long as Soto is with the team. Lee is the 1 payer I really was sad to see go but with Castro at SS and plethera of MI prospects who could end up at 2B again we dealt from a position of strength. Overall the system took an obvious hit but it still is a solid system. Now let's take a look at how the rest of system shakes out now.

**Rank, position, name, age as of April 1st, level where I feel they are most likely to start the season, ETA

1. RHP Trey McNutt, 21, AA, Mid-season 2012

McNutt burst ontot the scene for the Cubs in 2010 ascending 3 levels all the way to AA at the age of just 20 years old and in his 1st full season of proball. Featuring 2 plus-plus pitches starting with his 4 seam FB that sits 92-98 that comes in on a bit of a flat plane but he does blow it by hitters up in the zone. His 2nd pitch, a power slurve, that can nuetralize lefties has 2 plane break. McNutt rarely used his CU in 2010 and will need to flash it more as he moves up the system but the pitch has promise. I have McNutt over BJax here because I feel McNutt is just scratching the suface of what he can do. Considering his LOB% and BABIP at high A and AA leaves room to say he could have been even better. While he did get roughed up in his 1st taste of AA in the regular season he came back in 2 playoff starts to go 1-1 11 IP 9h 3er 4bb 12K's. If McNutt can learn to use his CU more he has the ceiling of a true #1 in the Justin Verlander mold. If not he could still start but would limit his upside to that of a 2/3 or a closer.

2. OF Brett Jackson, 22, AAA, Mid-season 2011

 Jackson has a quick bat that produces loft to his swing that should produce 15-20 HR annually. His plus speed should allow him to steal bases and take extra bases. Jackson draws walks and works counts well that also contributes to a high SO total that will limit his BA at the ML level. After and 8/17 start at AA he hit just .259 the rest of the way leaving me to feel his offensiver upside is that of a Mike Cameron-type player. Jackson profiles more as a solid regular who should be able to handle CF with improving reads and jumps and an average arm with accurate throws.

3. 3B Josh Vitters, 21, AA, Late 2012

If the Cubs allow Vitters to play all year at AA in 2011 I think it will be a huge breakout year. Offensively he has a quick smooth swing that makes easy contact and was making strides with his PD before breaking his hand. From what I've read about his defense in the AFL I think he can stick at 3B and be an average defender. Vitters offensive ceiling is large but will need continue to improve on his pitch selection.

4. RHP Chris Carpenter, 26, AAA, Mid season 2011 unless he wins a bullpen spot in ST.

Carp could be an innings eating 3/4 SP but considering the depth the Cubs have and his AFL performance he may be better suited as a set up man in the bullpen. Carp features a 91-96 mph FB with good life that when working in relief sits 95-99 and hit 101 in the AFL. His slurve is an above average pitch sitting in the low 80's with bite and depth. He has an average CU that if he moves to the bullpen he won't need. Carpenter also generates a lot of GBs. His AFL showing may have sealed his fate to working out of the pen in 2011 for the ML club.

5. RHP Hayden Simpson, 21/22, Low A, Mid Season 2013

Surprise 1st round pick that features a 4 pitch arsenal starting with a low 90's FB that can touch 97, a knee-buckling curve, hard slider, and solid CU. Also has plus command and control which should help his pitches play up but will need to work on his FB life. Wilken does a great job at judging pitchers so this could end up being a steal and could move fast.

6. OF. Matt Szczur, 21/22, Low A, Late season 2013...if ever

Exciting player who may end up playing football. Athletic speedster with true 80 speed and a knack for barreling the ball. Has good PD and gap to gap current power with the potential to add average power with better coaching. Szczur is a tireless worker and very competive. Callis said, while he may not get there, Grady Sizemore type ceiling is not out of the question. Would recieve a 500k bonus if he gives a written commitement to baseball before the NFL combine. The problem is with a weak WR class I can't see him at least not exploring his options for the NFL though the labor unrest could help him choose baseball.

UPDATE - Will forgo the NFL to focus on baseball. Had I known this when I started this list would have ranked as high as 3rd and focusing soley on baseball now should him mature faster.

7. RHP Rafael Dolis, 22, AA, Mid to late season 2012 as a starter or as early as late 2011 as a reliever

2 potential plus pitches with his 94-96 mph FB that generates a ton of GBs that he carry's late into games. Working as a releiver he sits in the upper 90's and can touch triple digits. His mid 80s SL is nasty. Shows some feel for the CU but needs to work on his command and control to be a long term SP. At the least he has the look of a power late inning reliever.

8. RHP Alberto Cabrera, 22, AA, Late 2012

Plus FB that sits 92-97 mph and 2 hard breaking pitches. Has an average CU. Live arm that struggled in AA in 2010 and should get another chance in 2011. May end up a reliever.

9. RHP Jay Jackson, 23, AAA, 2011 (could break camp as a reliever/will make his debut in some role in 2011)

Nice 4 pitch arsenal but stock took a bit of a hit. Is a flyball pitcher who will need to keep his HRA in check to be successful at the ML level. Could break camp as a bullpen arm or make his debut as a spot SP.

10. OF Micheal Burgess, 22, AA, late 2012

I had my list all set and got up this morning to work on this post and saw the trade. Since he's new I'll give a full scouting report. Supp. 1st round pick by the Nats in 2007 out of Tampa, Fla. H.S. The Good: Strong compact body (5'11 195) that hit's LH. Has plus to plus-plus power. His plus arm is 1 of the most feared in the minors that is very accurate. Is a solid defender overall. Does draw some walks and does a decent job working counts. Is a hard worker who wants to improve his game. The bad: swings and misses alot which will  limit his BA and chases too many CB in the dirt. Is a below average runner with contact issues. Has worked to shorten swing and from what I can tell he seemed to improve in making contact in 2010. Stock dropped according to BA from 9th coming into 2010 to around 20 this year. Profiles best as a power hitting 4th OF who if he can make some more progress could profile as a solid regular. Right now he doesn't profile to hit more then .250 as a ML, maybe lower. I like this pick up. He has some upside left but will need to work on his flaws.

11. IF D.J. LeMahieu, 22/23, AA, Late 2012

LeMahieu is the systems best pure hitter but lacks power and has defensive limitations. Profiles as a UTL player but if he can learn to turn on some pitches he could be an offensive minded 2B though there are some questions wheather he can handle that move defensively. I like D.J. and think there are some more improvements coming.

12. RHP Su-Min Jung, 21, High A, 2014

Anyone who's been reading me this past year knows how bullish I've been on Jung. Finally got some love from John Sickles this year and I asked numerous questions in the Cubs BA chat but got no responses on him. IMO he is primed for a breakout season this year. Was really starting to put it together over the final 2 months in 2010 which saw his K/9 rise to 10.6 and BB/9 fall to 2.9 before a horrible Aug. 10th outing then got put on the DL. FB sits in the low 90's that can touch 95 and improving CB and CU.

13. RHP Ben Wells, 19, SS-A, Late 2015

Agressive ranking here but I think he's got the stuff to justify it. Signed for 530K as a 7th rounder. This is the type of tough signs the Cubs need to make more of. Reasonable bonus with a ton pof potential.Plus FB sits in the low 90s that can touch 95 and may have more velo to come. Wells also has a nice hard slider and splitter. Above I state he will start at Boise because of how agressive the Cubs have been though AZL  may be where he starts.

14. SS. Junior Lake, 21, AA, Sometime in 2013

Impresive pakage of tools. Has a cannon arm and good power potential. Will eventually have to move off SS but could profile as a 3B if the power comes or 2B. Made some strides in 2010 but still has a long ways to go. Cut SO slightly and drew more walks and made better contact. Will need to carry this over to more advanced pitchers in AA and if he can this ranking will be to low but if he can't then this ranking will be to high.

15. RHP Austin Reed, 19, Low A, 2014 (but could move faster because of pitchibility)

Reed got rave reviews in the AZL ranking as the leagues 11th best prospect. Mixes 3 quality pitches, FB, CB and advanced CU, from a high three-quaters delievery. Reed is inteligent and could move fast for a H.S. because of his understanding how to pitch.

16. OF Reggie Golden, 19, AZL (or the Cubs could decided to start him at Boise though I think the league could carve him up)

Toolsy kid who is very raw. Has plus-plus power potential and very strong arm. Is athletic and has current above average speed. Raw hit tool and doesn't recognize off-speed stuff. The Cubs will need to take it very slow with him but could be an A.S. or bust in A ball. Very similar to Micheal Burgess coming out of H.S.

17. RHP Robinson Lopez, 20, High A, 2014

Lottery ticket aquired in the Derek Lee trade. Has big FB but will need to harness control. For a full scouting report check scoutingthesally.com.

18. RHP Kim-Jin Yeong, not sure if he's 18 or 19, AZL, 2016

This ranking is purely on scouting reports and 1.2 million bonus. 4 pitch mix starting with a FB that can hit 92, SL, CB, CU and above average command for his age. Got good reviews in instructs with some saying better stuff then Jung but better polish.

19. OF Jae-Hoon Ha, 20, High A, Mid season 2013

Makes good contact and power started to emerage in 2010. Will need improve Shawn Dunston-like 3.2 BB%. Decent speed and a chance to improve his ranking with a good showing at Daytona.

20. LHP Austin Kirk, 21, Low A, Late season 2013

Should start at Peoria but should move up to Daytona by mid season. 88-91 mph FB that is explosive and gets on hitters. Solid CB and good CU. Get's GBs, decent control, and good K rates that may produce a breakout season.

21. RHP Brett Wallach, 22, High A, Late 2013

Intriguing sleeper prospect who posted good K/9 numbers but needs to refine control. Wallach features some projection left to go with a good 3 pitch mix. 88-91 mph FB, a slurve with quick late break, and a good CU. The son of ex-ML Tim Wallach he's got good baseball pedigree and could move fast once his command improves.

22. SS Darwin Barney, 25, ML club, 2010

Barney doesn't have enough power to profile as a regular but offers enough to be a useful UTL player for the ML club in 2011. Makes solid contact to go with good intangibles and does the little things that makes teams he has played on winners. 

23. LHP Brooks Raley, 22/23, AA, late 2012

Tale of 2 seasons: Pre A.S. 2-5 5.93 Post A.S. 6-1 1.87. If he can build on his 2nd half he could really take off. Right now he profiles as lefty in the bullpen but may have some upside remaining.

24. RHP Dallas Beeler, 21/22, Low A, Mid season 2013

Beeler is a deep sleeper from the 2010 draft. Had TJS at Oral Roberts and is throwing 92-95 mph again to go with a promising slider. Could be a real mover on this list by next year.

25. 2B Matt Cerda, 20/21, High A, Late 2013

Was playing 3B at Peoria but profiles as a 2B. On base machine (68 BB) who has a little pop.

26. IF Ryan Flaherty, 24/25, AA, Late 2012

Not real sure if he deserves to be on this list. Has some pop but very old for High A last year. Will need to show he can hit AA pitching to still be considered a prospect. Defensive limitations limit his profile to corner UTL player. This imo is a make or break season.

27. LHP Chris Rusin, 24, AA, Mid season 2012 as a reliever

Fringy FB, decent CB, best CU and command in the system and generates GBs. At the least he should be a valuable lefty working in the bullpen but still has a chance to be a BOR starter.

28. 3B Dustin Geiger 19, SS-A or maybe Low A, Late 2014-2015

Another potential sleeper from the our underrated 2010 draft. Still growing body, power potential, and good defensively. I like Geiger and think he could surprise some this year and offers more upside then your normal 24th rd. pick.

29. SS Arismendy Alcantara 19, Low A, late 2014

Alex Eisenberg of Baseball-Intellect tabbed him as a player to watch this year. Should be the starting SS for Peoria who offers speed and a bit of pop f from his small frame. Stop me if you've heard this 1 before: Will need to draw more walks and cut down on his SO to be more effective.

30. C Wellington Castillo, 24, AAA or could break camp as the back up C, 2010

I'm not a big fan of Castillo but he could be a solid back up C. Will never hit for much AVG. or draw many walks but has power and a great arm. Can be sloppy on D and does SO a lot.

Honorable Mention - LHP Jefry Antigua, 2B Pin-Chieh Chen, 2B Wes Darvill (sleeper), C Micah Gibbs, LHP Cam Greathouse, RHP Aaron Kurcz, 2B Pierre LaPage, RHP Luis Liria, RHP A.J. Morris, RHP Dae-Eun Rhee, SS Daniel Sanchez, 3B Marquez Smith, 2B Logan Watkins

The List - I really spent a lot of time going over where everyone should rank. In the past when putting together top 30 lists I would normally just rough everyone in and say you could make a case for moving guys up or down but for this list I'm very comfortable this is where I want everyone. Although the Burgess trade and Szczur descion threw me a bit as I was putting this together. Burgess may have rated more in the mid teens for me but Josh seemed to think back end of the top 10 so I went with that. Szczur could have ranked as high as 3rd. Overall I put in a lot of research and time and added ages, 2011 destinations (though these could change depending), and ETA (just rough estimates) because a couple ppl had asked for them.

System Overview - Lot's of intriguing players and the system has thinned because of the Garza trade but imo still a good system. Lot's of power RH who generate GB although many have questions about long term SP potential. We have speed galore from a ton of MI prospects. The system lacks corner OF/IF with power. The addition of Golden and Burgess help but we still have work to do. We have some interesting LHP but none who profile as a sure SP.

Draft - Our 2010 draft was underated by most and may produce a lot of sleepers. For 2011 we should break the 5 million mark if for no other reason then we hold the 9th overall pick. I hope we continue to try and take players like Golden and Wells that will help replentish the system. In a perfect world we would earmark 6-8 million for the draft but who know's at this point. Wilken does a good job at indetifying pitchers but will need to focus on bats this year.

Hope everyone enjoys this read. Please feel free to ask questions or discuss the rankings. I know it's a long read but I tried to pack in as much info for the community as I could. I will review the list in June and rewrite it after the Aug. 15th signing deadline for the 2011 draft.

The Cubs system took a hit with the addition of Matt Garza from the Rays in exchange for 4 of our best prospects. Jim Callis said before the trade the Cubs system would have rnaked 8th according to Baseball America. In the aftermath of the trade the system obviously will fall but there is still good depth and a system full of intriguing players. The system now probably falls somewhere in the back end of the teens. While I was a fan of aquiring Garza the price was steep but I don't feel it was as bad as what some made it out to be. The concensus of scouts and GMs was the Cubs gave up good but not elite prospects.

While the price was probably an overpay we did deal from positions of strength within the system. I was never sold on Archer as a SP and thought he would end up in the bullpen. Guyer was more of a 4th OF and while I like Chirinos he was a back up for us as long as Soto is with the team. Lee is the 1 payer I really was sad to see go but with Castro at SS and plethera of MI prospects who could end up at 2B again we dealt from a position of strength. Overall the system took an obvious hit but it still is a solid system. Now let's take a look at how the rest of system shakes out now.

**Rank, position, name, age as of April 1st, level where I feel they are most likely to start the season, ETA

1. RHP Trey McNutt, 21, AA, Mid-season 2012

McNutt burst ontot the scene for the Cubs in 2010 ascending 3 levels all the way to AA at the age of just 20 years old and in his 1st full season of proball. Featuring 2 plus-plus pitches starting with his 4 seam FB that sits 92-98 that comes in on a bit of a flat plane but he does blow it by hitters up in the zone. His 2nd pitch, a power slurve, that can nuetralize lefties has 2 plane break. McNutt rarely used his CU in 2010 and will need to flash it more as he moves up the system but the pitch has promise. I have McNutt over BJax here because I feel McNutt is just scratching the suface of what he can do. Considering his LOB% and BABIP at high A and AA leaves room to say he could have been even better. While he did get roughed up in his 1st taste of AA in the regular season he came back in 2 playoff starts to go 1-1 11 IP 9h 3er 4bb 12K's. If McNutt can learn to use his CU more he has the ceiling of a true #1 in the Justin Verlander mold. If not he could still start but would limit his upside to that of a 2/3 or a closer.

2. OF Brett Jackson, 22, AAA, Mid-season 2011

 Jackson has a quick bat that produces loft to his swing that should produce 15-20 HR annually. His plus speed should allow him to steal bases and take extra bases. Jackson draws walks and works counts well that also contributes to a high SO total that will limit his BA at the ML level. After and 8/17 start at AA he hit just .259 the rest of the way leaving me to feel his offensiver upside is that of a Mike Cameron-type player. Jackson profiles more as a solid regular who should be able to handle CF with improving reads and jumps and an average arm with accurate throws.

3. 3B Josh Vitters, 21, AA, Late 2012

If the Cubs allow Vitters to play all year at AA in 2011 I think it will be a huge breakout year. Offensively he has a quick smooth swing that makes easy contact and was making strides with his PD before breaking his hand. From what I've read about his defense in the AFL I think he can stick at 3B and be an average defender. Vitters offensive ceiling is large but will need continue to improve on his pitch selection.

4. RHP Chris Carpenter, 26, AAA, Mid season 2011 unless he wins a bullpen spot in ST.

Carp could be an innings eating 3/4 SP but considering the depth the Cubs have and his AFL performance he may be better suited as a set up man in the bullpen. Carp features a 91-96 mph FB with good life that when working in relief sits 95-99 and hit 101 in the AFL. His slurve is an above average pitch sitting in the low 80's with bite and depth. He has an average CU that if he moves to the bullpen he won't need. Carpenter also generates a lot of GBs. His AFL showing may have sealed his fate to working out of the pen in 2011 for the ML club.

5. RHP Hayden Simpson, 21/22, Low A, Mid Season 2013

Surprise 1st round pick that features a 4 pitch arsenal starting with a low 90's FB that can touch 97, a knee-buckling curve, hard slider, and solid CU. Also has plus command and control which should help his pitches play up but will need to work on his FB life. Wilken does a great job at judging pitchers so this could end up being a steal and could move fast.

6. OF. Matt Szczur, 21/22, Low A, Late season 2013...if ever

Exciting player who may end up playing football. Athletic speedster with true 80 speed and a knack for barreling the ball. Has good PD and gap to gap current power with the potential to add average power with better coaching. Szczur is a tireless worker and very competive. Callis said, while he may not get there, Grady Sizemore type ceiling is not out of the question. Would recieve a 500k bonus if he gives a written commitement to baseball before the NFL combine. The problem is with a weak WR class I can't see him at least not exploring his options for the NFL though the labor unrest could help him choose baseball.

UPDATE - Will forgo the NFL to focus on baseball. Had I known this when I started this list would have ranked as high as 3rd and focusing soley on baseball now should him mature faster.

7. RHP Rafael Dolis, 22, AA, Mid to late season 2012 as a starter or as early as late 2011 as a reliever

2 potential plus pitches with his 94-96 mph FB that generates a ton of GBs that he carry's late into games. Working as a releiver he sits in the upper 90's and can touch triple digits. His mid 80s SL is nasty. Shows some feel for the CU but needs to work on his command and control to be a long term SP. At the least he has the look of a power late inning reliever.

8. RHP Alberto Cabrera, 22, AA, Late 2012

Plus FB that sits 92-97 mph and 2 hard breaking pitches. Has an average CU. Live arm that struggled in AA in 2010 and should get another chance in 2011. May end up a reliever.

9. RHP Jay Jackson, 23, AAA, 2011 (could break camp as a reliever/will make his debut in some role in 2011)

Nice 4 pitch arsenal but stock took a bit of a hit. Is a flyball pitcher who will need to keep his HRA in check to be successful at the ML level. Could break camp as a bullpen arm or make his debut as a spot SP.

10. OF Micheal Burgess, 22, AA, late 2012

I had my list all set and got up this morning to work on this post and saw the trade. Since he's new I'll give a full scouting report. Supp. 1st round pick by the Nats in 2007 out of Tampa, Fla. H.S. The Good: Strong compact body (5'11 195) that hit's LH. Has plus to plus-plus power. His plus arm is 1 of the most feared in the minors that is very accurate. Is a solid defender overall. Does draw some walks and does a decent job working counts. Is a hard worker who wants to improve his game. The bad: swings and misses alot which will  limit his BA and chases too many CB in the dirt. Is a below average runner with contact issues. Has worked to shorten swing and from what I can tell he seemed to improve in making contact in 2010. Stock dropped according to BA from 9th coming into 2010 to around 20 this year. Profiles best as a power hitting 4th OF who if he can make some more progress could profile as a solid regular. Right now he doesn't profile to hit more then .250 as a ML, maybe lower. I like this pick up. He has some upside left but will need to work on his flaws.

11. IF D.J. LeMahieu, 22/23, AA, Late 2012

LeMahieu is the systems best pure hitter but lacks power and has defensive limitations. Profiles as a UTL player but if he can learn to turn on some pitches he could be an offensive minded 2B though there are some questions wheather he can handle that move defensively. I like D.J. and think there are some more improvements coming.

12. RHP Su-Min Jung, 21, High A, 2014

Anyone who's been reading me this past year knows how bullish I've been on Jung. Finally got some love from John Sickles this year and I asked numerous questions in the Cubs BA chat but got no responses on him. IMO he is primed for a breakout season this year. Was really starting to put it together over the final 2 months in 2010 which saw his K/9 rise to 10.6 and BB/9 fall to 2.9 before a horrible Aug. 10th outing then got put on the DL. FB sits in the low 90's that can touch 95 and improving CB and CU.

13. RHP Ben Wells, 19, SS-A, Late 2015

Agressive ranking here but I think he's got the stuff to justify it. Signed for 530K as a 7th rounder. This is the type of tough signs the Cubs need to make more of. Reasonable bonus with a ton pof potential.Plus FB sits in the low 90s that can touch 95 and may have more velo to come. Wells also has a nice hard slider and splitter. Above I state he will start at Boise because of how agressive the Cubs have been though AZL  may be where he starts.

14. SS. Junior Lake, 21, AA, Sometime in 2013

Impresive pakage of tools. Has a cannon arm and good power potential. Will eventually have to move off SS but could profile as a 3B if the power comes or 2B. Made some strides in 2010 but still has a long ways to go. Cut SO slightly and drew more walks and made better contact. Will need to carry this over to more advanced pitchers in AA and if he can this ranking will be to low but if he can't then this ranking will be to high.

15. RHP Austin Reed, 19, Low A, 2014 (but could move faster because of pitchibility)

Reed got rave reviews in the AZL ranking as the leagues 11th best prospect. Mixes 3 quality pitches, FB, CB and advanced CU, from a high three-quaters delievery. Reed is inteligent and could move fast for a H.S. because of his understanding how to pitch.

16. OF Reggie Golden, 19, AZL (or the Cubs could decided to start him at Boise though I think the league could carve him up)

Toolsy kid who is very raw. Has plus-plus power potential and very strong arm. Is athletic and has current above average speed. Raw hit tool and doesn't recognize off-speed stuff. The Cubs will need to take it very slow with him but could be an A.S. or bust in A ball. Very similar to Micheal Burgess coming out of H.S.

17. RHP Robinson Lopez, 20, High A, 2014

Lottery ticket aquired in the Derek Lee trade. Has big FB but will need to harness control. For a full scouting report check scoutingthesally.com.

18. RHP Kim-Jin Yeong, not sure if he's 18 or 19, AZL, 2016

This ranking is purely on scouting reports and 1.2 million bonus. 4 pitch mix starting with a FB that can hit 92, SL, CB, CU and above average command for his age. Got good reviews in instructs with some saying better stuff then Jung but better polish.

19. OF Jae-Hoon Ha, 20, High A, Mid season 2013

Makes good contact and power started to emerage in 2010. Will need improve Shawn Dunston-like 3.2 BB%. Decent speed and a chance to improve his ranking with a good showing at Daytona.

20. LHP Austin Kirk, 21, Low A, Late season 2013

Should start at Peoria but should move up to Daytona by mid season. 88-91 mph FB that is explosive and gets on hitters. Solid CB and good CU. Get's GBs, decent control, and good K rates that may produce a breakout season.

21. RHP Brett Wallach, 22, High A, Late 2013

Intriguing sleeper prospect who posted good K/9 numbers but needs to refine control. Wallach features some projection left to go with a good 3 pitch mix. 88-91 mph FB, a slurve with quick late break, and a good CU. The son of ex-ML Tim Wallach he's got good baseball pedigree and could move fast once his command improves.

22. SS Darwin Barney, 25, ML club, 2010

Barney doesn't have enough power to profile as a regular but offers enough to be a useful UTL player for the ML club in 2011. Makes solid contact to go with good intangibles and does the little things that makes teams he has played on winners. 

23. LHP Brooks Raley, 22/23, AA, late 2012

Tale of 2 seasons: Pre A.S. 2-5 5.93 Post A.S. 6-1 1.87. If he can build on his 2nd half he could really take off. Right now he profiles as lefty in the bullpen but may have some upside remaining.

24. RHP Dallas Beeler, 21/22, Low A, Mid season 2013

Beeler is a deep sleeper from the 2010 draft. Had TJS at Oral Roberts and is throwing 92-95 mph again to go with a promising slider. Could be a real mover on this list by next year.

25. 2B Matt Cerda, 20/21, High A, Late 2013

Was playing 3B at Peoria but profiles as a 2B. On base machine (68 BB) who has a little pop.

26. IF Ryan Flaherty, 24/25, AA, Late 2012

Not real sure if he deserves to be on this list. Has some pop but very old for High A last year. Will need to show he can hit AA pitching to still be considered a prospect. Defensive limitations limit his profile to corner UTL player. This imo is a make or break season.

27. LHP Chris Rusin, 24, AA, Mid season 2012 as a reliever

Fringy FB, decent CB, best CU and command in the system and generates GBs. At the least he should be a valuable lefty working in the bullpen but still has a chance to be a BOR starter.

28. 3B Dustin Geiger 19, SS-A or maybe Low A, Late 2014-2015

Another potential sleeper from the our underrated 2010 draft. Still growing body, power potential, and good defensively. I like Geiger and think he could surprise some this year and offers more upside then your normal 24th rd. pick.

29. SS Arismendy Alcantara 19, Low A, late 2014

Alex Eisenberg of Baseball-Intellect tabbed him as a player to watch this year. Should be the starting SS for Peoria who offers speed and a bit of pop f from his small frame. Stop me if you've heard this 1 before: Will need to draw more walks and cut down on his SO to be more effective.

30. C Wellington Castillo, 24, AAA or could break camp as the back up C, 2010

I'm not a big fan of Castillo but he could be a solid back up C. Will never hit for much AVG. or draw many walks but has power and a great arm. Can be sloppy on D and does SO a lot.

Honorable Mention - LHP Jefry Antigua, 2B Pin-Chieh Chen, 2B Wes Darvill (sleeper), C Micah Gibbs, LHP Cam Greathouse, RHP Aaron Kurcz, 2B Pierre LaPage, RHP Luis Liria, RHP A.J. Morris, RHP Dae-Eun Rhee, SS Daniel Sanchez, 3B Marquez Smith, 2B Logan Watkins

The List - I really spent a lot of time going over where everyone should rank. In the past when putting together top 30 lists I would normally just rough everyone in and say you could make a case for moving guys up or down but for this list I'm very comfortable this is where I want everyone. Although the Burgess trade and Szczur descion threw me a bit as I was putting this together. Burgess may have rated more in the mid teens for me but Josh seemed to think back end of the top 10 so I went with that. Szczur could have ranked as high as 3rd. Overall I put in a lot of research and time and added ages, 2011 destinations (though these could change depending), and ETA (just rough estimates) because a couple ppl had asked for them.

System Overview - Lot's of intriguing players and the system has thinned because of the Garza trade but imo still a good system. Lot's of power RH who generate GB although many have questions about long term SP potential. We have speed galore from a ton of MI prospects. The system lacks corner OF/IF with power. The addition of Golden and Burgess help but we still have work to do. We have some interesting LHP but none who profile as a sure SP.

Draft - Our 2010 draft was underated by most and may produce a lot of sleepers. For 2011 we should break the 5 million mark if for no other reason then we hold the 9th overall pick. I hope we continue to try and take players like Golden and Wells that will help replentish the system. In a perfect world we would earmark 6-8 million for the draft but who know's at this point. Wilken does a good job at indetifying pitchers but will need to focus on bats this year.

Hope everyone enjoys this read. Please feel free to ask questions or discuss the rankings. I know it's a long read but I tried to pack in as much info for the community as I could. I will review the list in June and rewrite it after the Aug. 15th signing deadline for the 2011 draft.

***Note - These are statistical projections that are intended as general guidlines, not gospel. So many variables come into play such as playingtime, injury, etc. The numbers set about are based on past performance and future projection.

I'm writing this piece to take a look at what type of production the Cubs roster could produce. The numbers are taken from Ron Shandler's Baseball Forcaster. Over the past 3 years I have found these projections to be fairly accurate. Of coarse this is not  fool proof. What I have found is that in general it is a good starting point when evaluating players. Are these numbers always accurate? Of coarse not but I have found that Shandler does a real good job at giving you a solid starting point and he does a great job picking potential breakout players as well as identifying players that will not match a past year's production.

Please take this post for what it is. Nothing more then a starting point of what we may be able to expect. I find Ron Shandler's projections to be far more accurate then say Bill James. Is he dead wrong sometimes? Absolutely but sometimes things cannot be forseen such as injury's, trades, and playingtime. And sometimes a player such as Pablo Sandoval just doesn't produce.  These numbers are suposed to be taken in a vaccum. For example he projects Adrian Beltre's numbers yet he has yet to sign anywhere and as we all know park/league can affect a player's numbers. So agian take these number's with a grain of salt.

                                           W     L   SV    IP     SO    ERA   WHIP

SP. Ryan Dempster       13   11    0   203   186   3.96   1.33

SP. Carlos Zambrano     9     9     0   153   133   4.12   1.42

SP. Randy Wells             10   11    0   174   121   4.14   1.37

SP. Carlos Silva              11   13    0   149    96    4.95    1.46

SP. Tom Gorzelanny       10  10    0   160   126   4.40    1.50

SP. Casey Cloeman         7    8     0   116    53     4.50    1.49

Wow after being on this site and repeatly hearing how we were OK with our SP I actually started beleiveing it. Just not the case here. You have Dempster who's solid and to be fair more of a elite #2 on a 1st division team them a true ace. That's not a knock on him just a fact. Consider where he would slot for the elite teams, like 3/4. After him Z is a wild card. Shandler has long been saying he was gonna fall off like this from his early workload. Z is no longer an ace and imo not even a #2. I think the best we can hope for is a solid #3 type. Yes he had a great 2nd half but consider the workload was only a half season and his LOB% was a ridiculously high 89% in his 2nd half surge. That rate is unstusainable or about 17% higher then the league average.

Here is what Shandler had to say about Wells:

As expected, couldn't repeat rookie buzz. But 1H H% partly to blamed CMD growth gives a bit of hope. All that said, he's really just not all that skilled.

Wells is our 3 and really is nothing better then a 4 on a bad team and a 5 on a decent team. For all of those who think that the difference between Wells and Garza is negligable please get into a BA chat, or make that statement to a respected scout via tweet, or make a post on a reputable SBN web page and see what the response is. That's all I'm gonna say. We really need to aquire a Garza type pitcher to have a chance to compete this year.

Gorzo we should just trade for a mid level prospect while he has value. I like Gorzo I just don't see him being on the team making or breaking us when we maybe able to get a usefull piece such as a Scott Sizemore. Silva and Coleman....excuse me while I lean over and puke into my waste paper basket. Shandler basically mirrors my thoughts on Coleman but to be fair I did ask Callis in the BA Cubs chat the other day if he thought Coleman could be a SP long term and his response was:

Jim Callis: Sure. He doesn't have the ceiling of some of the Cubs' other arms, but he really knows how to pitch and does all the little things well. Those guys have a habit of sticking around longer than might be expected. By the way, he didn't make the Top 30 because he exhausted his eligibility once he passed 50 innings in the majors

CL. Carlos Mamol     2   3   33    73  109   3.60  1.30

ST. Kerry Wood         4     4    5    58    65    3.88  1.36

ST. Sean Marshall    5    6     3    80   79     3.50  1.25

I'm not gonna run thorugh any other relievers because at this point the rest of the bullpen will not be defined until ST. I also won't post Cahsners projections because it is geared more twoard him being a RP and I think the Cubs will send him back to AAA to start again. I think our late innings is solid now but getting the ball to them might get real ugly.

Overall outside of Dempster our rotation is pretty dicey and we got some good late inning guys but the rest of the staff is a huge question mark. The line up should be solid with a chance to be pretty good but we just don't have the pitching to really be considered a contender for the division. On the plus side I think after Carpenter's AFL showing he and J.Jackson could help solidify the pen and at some point we should see Archer and Cashner in the rotation. So we do have some optimism for the staff. Oh, and again these are just projection stats and to be used as a baseline so take with a  grain of salt.

Discuss among yourselves.

***Note - These are statistical projections that are intended as general guidlines, not gospel. So many variables come into play such as playingtime, injury, etc. The numbers set about are based on past performance and future projection.

I'm writing this piece to take a look at what type of production the Cubs roster could produce. The numbers are taken from Ron Shandler's Baseball Forcaster. Over the past 3 years I have found these projections to be fairly accurate. Of coarse this is not  fool proof. What I have found is that in general it is a good starting point when evaluating players. Are these numbers always accurate? Of coarse not but I have found that Shandler does a real good job at giving you a solid starting point and he does a great job picking potential breakout players as well as identifying players that will not match a past year's production.

Please take this post for what it is. Nothing more then a starting point of what we may be able to expect. I find Ron Shandler's projections to be far more accurate then say Bill James. Is he dead wrong sometimes? Absolutely but sometimes things cannot be forseen such as injury's, trades, and playingtime. And sometimes a player such as Pablo Sandoval just doesn't produce.  These numbers are suposed to be taken in a vaccum. For example he projects Adrian Beltre's numbers yet he has yet to sign anywhere and as we all know park/league can affect a player's numbers. So agian take these number's with a grain of salt.

POS. NAME                AB   AVG/OBP/SLG   HR  RBI  SB

C.      Goe Soto           402  276/374/496     20   68    0

1B.    Carlos Pena     434  235/355/475     28   82    4

2B.    Blake Dewitt/     409 252/320/366       6    46    3   
          Jeff Baker           226 279/334/432       5    26    2

3B.   Aramis Ramirez 515 285/343/505     27   91    0

SS.  Starlin Castro      521 286/329/400      3    54   17

RF.  Tyler Colvin/         409 254/298/466     19   56    6

    Kosuke Fukudome 386 277/387/449     12   48     7

CF. Marlon Byrd           529 285/331/434      13   69    6

LF. Alfonso Soriano    502 267/325/496      25   74    5

Couple things to point out here. Colvin in his player notes is said to have a potential upside of 30HR/15SB. Not sure I buy this but I guess it's not completely out of the question. His 1st half hr/f of 30% was in no way sustainable but his 2nd half of 13% is very solid for a 20 HR type hitter and is very much sustainable and probably will settle a bit higher.

Soto's stats could surge if he could somehow get another 100 ABs.

Castro's 3 HR seem low to me. It may not all come this year but I feel those 2b (31) will start to turn into some more HR. I think for sure by 2012 he should be good for 15 HR annually. He's not the speed guy that Shandler thinks he is. After watching him this past year his speed is not plus as Baseball America suggested coming into this year but more slightly above average and probably just ends up at average as he matures.

A healthy Pena could very much match those stats and I think we'd all be happy with that. Don't count out a 30+ HR season.

FWIW - MLE's are Major League Equivelnce. Something that Bill James came up with in 1985. It's not a perfect stat but does have some value. So here is Robinson Chirinos MLE's. His stats are pretty impressive considering looking up and down the list there is a lot of sub 250 avg.

319 AB 268/322/464  13 HR 50 RBI.

So discuss the projections. I'll probably do the pitchers version in the next few days.

No longer considered a creampuff division that 85 wins could net you a title. The N.L. Centeral now features 3 legitimate playoff caliber teams that should make for a fun year in 2011. The Brewers now have the pitching to go with their lineup, the Cardinals have 2 legit aces to go with Holliday and Pujols and 2 exciting young players in Garcia and Rasmus, and the Reds are a young up and coming team. The Cubs and Astros could make some noise but it's unlikely. The Pirates are well the Pirates but do have some nice young players but lack the pitching to do much of anything.

Here is my quick run down of the division:

1. Milwaukee Brewers

Hitting - 1st (division rank) - This lineup should be among the best in the N.L. Braun had a bit of an off year by his standards so I see a return to form for him and Fielder should post big numbers in his contract year to go with Weeks, McGehee, and Hart. This line up is deep and should score a ton of runs. Betancourt and Gomez if nothing else should provide solid gloves.

Pitching - 2nd - Gallardo, Greinke, and Marcum are excellent TOR guys. Combine that with a real solid #4 in Randy Wolf and your looking at 55-60 wins that is a good start to 90+ wins. Youngsters Willy Peralta and Mark Rogers should compete for the 5th spot or bullpen help. Axford looked like a good closer and the rest of the pen should be solid.

Outlook - They sold out their farm system for Marcum and Greinke and with Fielder's contract year this is a win now team. Look for them to potentially add another player at the deadline. The line up is great and now they have the SP so while this is the sexy pick it looks like the odds on favriote to me right now.

2. St. Louis Cardinals

Hititng - (3rd) - Anytime you got Pujols and Holliday you are gonna score some runs. Look for a step forward in athletic CF Rasmus and you got the makings of a good line up. I considered ranking them 4th but I think players like Molina and Schumaker who do the little things make this lineup play up. Berkman will be looking for a rebound season but playing RF may create some problems.

Pithcing - (1st) - With 2 legit aces in Wainright and Carpenter and youngster Jamie Garcia this is the best staff in the division easily imo. Combine in Jake Westbrook at #4 who pitched better after his switch to the N.L (3.48 era) and posted 202 IP this staff is just a notch below Philly's big 4. The bullpen is good with closer Ryan Franklin and solid the rest of the way.

Overview - LaRussa will have this team ready to contend and always does the little things to win ball games. Serious star power with Carp, Waino, Pujols, and Holliday combined with up and coming youngsters Rasmus and Garcia. The rest of the roster offers solid roll players.

3. Cincinnati Reds

Hitting - (2nd) - Led by reining MVP Joey Votto this line up scored the most runs in the N.L. and could be getting better if Jay Bruce finally takes that step forward. Brandon Phillips is 1 of the best 2B in the game. Drew Stubbs had a fine 1st full season with 22hr and 30 sb and flashing a good glove in CF. While Rolen and Gomes won't replicate their 2010 seasons both should be solid and factor in Yonder Alonso who should get time in the ML possibly replacing Gomes in LF and UTL man Todd Frazier  this line up should be stout again.

Pithcing - (3rd) - While this group lacks the ace(s) that the Brewers and Cards feature it is deep and solid. They have 6 potential SP and possibly a 7th depending on what they decide to do with Chapman. Cueto took a semi-step forward and full year of Volquez back from injury should give them a decent top 2 with the rest of the staff filled out with Leake, Wood, Bailey, and Arroyo. Cordero, Chapman, and Masset are the makings of a fine bullpen.

Overview - The Reds have compiled a good young nucleus that won the division last year but maybe headed for some regression. The difference between them and the 2 above is the star quality in pitching.

4. Chicago Cubs

Hitting - 4th - The lineup doesn't have star power it could be much improved from 2010 with a bounce back year's from Ramirez and Pena with a heathly Soto who should get more ABs. Sorinano and Byrd are solid regulars. Castro had a fine season for a 20 year old and could see some of those 31 2B and 5 3B find their way over the fence. Probably won't hit .300 next year but should be in the .280 range and be an all-star caliber player in 2012. The line up is solid but lacks a leadoff hitter that maybe filled at some point by top prospect Brett Jackson.

Pitching - 4th - Dempster and Z form a solid pair but the rest is pretty blah. Cashner probably starts the year in AAA but he and Archer should make apperances at some point in the rotation. The bullpen should be improved with the addition of Kerry Wood. Marmol being set up by Marshall and Wood gives the Cubs an excellent late inning trio.

Overall - If the Cubs are gonna make any playoff noise it will be on the backs of the youngsters playing key roles. If B. Jackson, Archer, and Cashner are ML ready they could make a push but that is probably not gonna happen. They should get key contributions from Chirinos, Barney, J. Jackson, and Guyer also in some form or another. The roster is fairly solid top to bottom but lacks that something special.

5. Houston Astros

Hitting - 6th - Carlos Lee, Micheal Bourn, and Huner Pence form a solid OF but the rest of the diamond is filled out by below league average players unless Brett Wallace and Jason Castro take large steps forward. I can see this lineup having trouble scoring runs.

Pitching - 5th - Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers are a solid 1-2 with Happ and Norris filling out the 3-4 slots. Norris took a step forward at the end of last year and maybe primed for a breakout season in 2011. The bullpen is OK I guess but I just don't believe in Lyons as a closer.

Overview - The SP is decent but the lineup is lacking leaving me to believe they are a step behind the Cubs.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Hitting - 5th - McCutcheon is and exciting player to go with Alvarez and Tabata that forms a nice young nucleus. Walker, Overbay, Jones, and possibly Snyder are nice complementary players. This line up has potential to grow and put some runs on the board. However the problem is.............

Pitching - 12th er...6th- About the best thing I can say here is I believe they plan on filling the 12 staff slots with warm bodies.

Overview - The lineup has potential but the pitching will relegate this team to last. 

Now it's early and some moves still will be made as the rest of the free agents land but this should give everyone a solid view of the division. This is shaping up to be a very strong and competitive year for the N.L. Central. Baring any major moves from here until opening day this is how I see they landscape of the division. 

This is just a fun little piece going back 8 years and looking at who the Cubs had a chance to draft in the 1st 2 rounds. Now obviously it's easy to look back 8 years with hindsight being 20/20 and say we should have took this guy or that guy. We had picks 21, 32, 36, 38, 56, and 62 between the 1st, sup1st, and 2nd rounds. With these 6 picks we basically got nothing usefull. Here is the list of players we drafted:

21. RHP Bobby Brownlie 2.5M

32. LHP Luke Hagerty 1.15M

36. RHP Chadd Blasko 1.05M

38. RHP Matt Clanton 875K

56. 1B Brian Dopriak 740K

62. LHP Justin Jones 625K

A pretty uninspiring list of players who we spent 6.94 million on. Now I'm gonna go back and take the player who I think we should have taken and list where they went and what they signed for. Now I understand that once the Cubs take someone diferent it changes the whole draft but in this case we will just assume that everyone still goes in the same place just swapped out for 1 of our picks.The player we pick will come after our draft slot. Again this is just for fun.

21. RHP Matt Cain (25th, Giants) 1.375

32. 1B Joey Votto (44th, Reds) 600K

36. LHP Jon Lester (57th Red Sox) 1M

38. RHP Johnathan Broxton (60th Dodgers) 685K

56. C Brian McCaan (64th Braves) 750K

62 OF Curtis Granderson (80th Tigers) 469K

That would have been 1 hell of a haul that cost 4.879 million. Had we made thses picks our roster would be W.S. worthy. To add 2 front of the rotation SP, shutdown closer, A.S. 1B and C, and a solid CF. Again this is hindsight but thought it would be fun to see what might have been had we spent our 6 premium picks better. This is not a knock on the Cubs nessarily because as I said it's not really fair to come back 8 years later and say this was the obvious pick.

Here is how our roster could potentially shake out. I've moved Soriano to 2B for no other reason then to get his bat in the line up so don't get on and tell me how stupid it would be because I know. Here is how our roster shakes out.

CF. Granderson    L

SS. Castro     R

1B. Votto     L

3B. Ramirez    R

LF. McCaan   L

C. Soto      R

RF. Byrd   R

2B. Soriano R

Bench: C. Chirinos, MIF. Barney, CIF. DeWitt, OF. Colvin, OF. Guyer/B.Jackson

RHP Matt Cain

LHP Jon Lester

RHP Ryan Dempster

RHP Carlos Zambrano

RHP Andrew Cashner

Bullpen:

CL. RHP Jon Broxton

SU. RHP Carlos Marmol

        LHP Sean Marshall

MR. LHP Tom Gorzelanny

        RHP Randy Wells

1st Call ups - RHP Chris Archer and CF. Brett Jackson

Not a bad well rounded roster. I know this really has no relevence it's just for fun. Figured it would be a fun read if nothing else.

Here is the part 2 to my top pitching prospects post. I hope I didn't miss anyone. I have been working on this before work over the past 2 mornings. Will probably put together my top 50 prospects this weekend. Didn't have time to thoroughly check the spelling so I apologize for any spelling errors. Let me know what you think.

1. Bryce Harper OF - WOW! This kid is so good so young that I think he can be patroling RF for the Nats at just 19. To have the in-game plus-plus power at such a young age is amazing. Some have questioned his ability to hit for average but from what I read about his in game adjustments leads me to believe he'll post good average.

2. Mike Trout OF - 5 tool talent had an outstanding season making high A at 18. There is nothing not to like about Trout. Should be a top of the order force in the mold of Tim Raines.

3. Dominic Brown OF - Reminds many of Darryl Strawberry but should post better avg. annually then "Straw" did. Athletic OF may not be quite as good a hitter as Montero but get's the nod because of defensive value.

4. Jesus Montero C - Would top this list in many other years. Will hit for high average and lot's of power no matter where he plays. Mike Piazza is a good comp and I'm only using it as a hitter. Should annually post .300 avg. 30+ hr.

5. Eric Hosmer 1B - Prototypical 1B who should post high avg/obp/slg while playing excellent D.

6. Dustin Ackley 2B - Maybe the best pure hitter in the minors. I could see multiple 200 H seasons. Controls the strike zone very well. Could be a Wade Boggs type hitter.

7. Wil Myers C - No matter where he ends up defensively his bat will play. Athletic with a great stroke and great pitch recognition  I think he's just tapping into his power potential.

8. Brandon Belt 1B - Outstanding season and from all accounts the bat is for real.

9. Mike Moustakas 3B - Amazing plus-plus power made some adjustments this year in his approach. Will never walk much but only SO 67 times in 481 ABs.

10. Manny Machado SS - 5 tool talent who gets this ranking soley on the scouting reports. Usually I'm hesitiant about H.S. bats but I think he's the real deal.

11. Freddie Freeman 1B - May end up more of a Mark Grace type then your true slugging 1B. Nothing wrong with that and the power may come. Could post annual .280-.290 avg w/ 15-20 hr.

12. Brett Jackson OF - After 10 on this list I think it falls off from A.S. caliber players to more solid regulars on 1st division teams. Wide base of tools has 20/20 potential but I'm not sure how much avg. he will hit for at the ML level because of the high SO totals but draws a ton of walks that helps offset that.

13. Brett Lawrie 2B- I think the bat plays no matter where he ends up defensively. I think thing he should post solid HR totals despite hitting just 8 last year.

14. Lonnie Chisenhall 3B - 11-14 are pretty interchangeable for me.

15. Johnathan Singleton 1B/LF - Polished bat that probably plays up more so with the move to LF. Good strike zone judgement for a player so young. I've seen reports on his power range from average to plus so before ranking him higher I want to see where the reality is.

16. Desmond Jennings OF - Exciting player who comes with some questions about power and injury concerns. Had a tough year in 2010 and could rise back up this list with a good showing.

17. Wilmer Flores SS - May move off SS to 3B but I love the adjustments he made from 2009 to 2010. The power should come.

18. Gary Sanchez C - 4 above average tools highlighted by his current plus power that should end up being plus-plus as he refines his already solid approach. May end up being better then Montero.

19. Miguel Sano SS - Another teenager who probably ends up at 3B. Love his bat speed and power but wonder how much his big body will play. May even have to move to 1B but has the bat to play there.

20. Aaron Hicks OF - 1 of my favriote prospects I think he puts it all together this year and moves into the top 10. Really seemed to turn a corner the 2nd half of the season in 2010. Gives me a strong Devon White feel with much better on base skills.

I'm just gonna tackle some of these trade rumors and give my take then let you all discuss.

Matt Garza:

I'm not getting a real clear picture of what we are offering but it is said our deal is the most attractive right now. I'm hearing maybe Chirinos and a SS, maybe Barney or Lake and maybe an arm like Dolis. I'd do that in a heartbeat. Not sure how much they want a ML ready Barney as it seeems they are ready to hand the SS duties over to Reid Brignac so I would have to think Lake. While Lake made some strides this year he's still a pretty raw player. I believe in Chirinos bat and really would like to hold onto him but in this deal I'd be for moving him.

Garza regularly posted K/9 rates in the 9's in the minors and while he posted 6.6 last year a move to the N.L. and out of the patient A.L. East I could see that number jumping up. His walk rate improved last year but he does give up some HR. He reminds me in stuff and profile of Jared Weaver.

Tom Gorzelanny:

Tigers are said to be very interested. I'd like to see Scott Sizemore playing 2B for the Cubs. I have not heard anything specific so I'm just speculating. I wonder if we could tempt the the Tigers into giving us Casey Crosby a guy who was shut down in June for elbow problems. He did have TJS after being drafted but this could be a huge reward type player. He was the Tigers #2 prospect coming into 2010 and has an electric LH arm.

Chris Davis/Darren O' Day 4 Chirinos/Dolis:

This is a deal I hate. The thing is I beleive in Chirinos bat and feel Dolis could be ready by the end of the year to be a late inning power arm out of the pen. O'Day has posted back to back excellent seasons but releivers are such a crap shoot especially when they are not power arms. I see RP post a great season or 2 but you rarley see any releiver do it long term. Guys like Matt Thornton and Scott Shields are the exception not the rule. Chris Davis looks like a AAAA player to me. I've seen him play numerous times and his approach is just awfull and he never seems to havve a grasp of what he should be trying to do at the plate nor a clue as to what pitch should be coming.

This had to be a quick take because I gotta get off to work. I'll continue to update this thread.

This is my top 25 as of right now. I have tried to reaserch this as much as possible lately and don't think I've missed anyone ( I may be wrong). I was debating on waiting for the rest of BA/BP/Sickels top prospects to drop but figured this was as good of time as any and I was not sure how much time I'll have in January. Don't get to wrapped up in exact # ranking as I could see cases for many of these players being higher or lower depnding on what you prefer and what you've been hearing. Players such as Perez, Kelly, and Monty could be right back to elite I just wanted to take a wait and see approach to them.

1 player who may strike many as an obvious omission is Scheppers and let me tackle this right now. While he has 2 plus-plus pitches the fact that he gave up 82 H and 30 BB mostly pitching out of relief gives me pause. I've always had an uneasy feeling about him.

1. Aroldis Chapman L - Has Randy Johnson type upside as a starter or at worst a lockdown A.S. closer.

2. Matt Moore L - Dominating lefty who reminds me of Sid Fernandez both in body and put up similar stats to what El Sid did in the 1st half of his career. Improved from 5.5 BB/9 in the 1st half to 2.6 in the 2nd half. If he can continue to improve control could be even better then Fernandez.

3. Jeremy Hellickson R - Combines good stuff, outstanding command, and pitchability. Got popped for 5 HRA in 36 IP in his ML debut and 22 HRA in 2008 that may hold his ultimate upside down some. Not to concerned and I feel he could be the type of pitcher Jared Weaver is, a guy who gives up some HR, keeps the walks to minimum and eventually develops in to an ace.

4. James Taillon R - He's so good I consider this a conservative ranking LOL. 2 plus-plus pitches to with a hard slider and the makings of a solid CU. Draws Josh Beckett comps. Could top this list after I see some pro data.

5. Jarrod Parker R - Elite 4 pitch arsenal. I want to see if he regains his feel for his stuff this year before ranking him higher. I didn't have a problem with PP ranking him above Hellickson. I don't feel it was that far fetched and with a good showing to start the year probably will rate higher.

6.  Julio Teheran R - Electric stuff cruised through 3 levels to AA at just 19. Reminds me of Neftali Feliz in build, arm slot, and stuff, though his stuff might be a half tick under Feliz.

7. Shelby Miller R - I love this guy. He's the RH version of Matt Moore.

8. Chris Sale L - 3 plus pitches and imo the best college pitcher available in 2010. The only thing holding him back from ranking higher is seeing how his stuff will play as a starter.

9. Micheal Pineda R - Explosive FB to go with 2 quality secondary offerings. Solid control that he just needs to tighten up a bit. Should be in the ML at some point in 2011.

10. Zach Britton R -

11. Kyle Drabek R -

12. Kyle Gibson R -

***Britton, Drabek, and Gibson are all interchangeable for me sitting 10a,b,and c. All 3 profile as good #2's on 1st division teams. Good but not dominant starters. Gibson and Britton both are similar GB machines who won't post elite SO numbers and Drabek's command holds him back.

13. Randal Delgado R - 3 potential plus pitches to go with improving command and pitches on a downward plane.

14.. Trey McNutt R -

15. Dellin Betances R - 

*** McNutt and Betances are very similar with 2 plus-plus pitches (FB Breaking pitch) combos. Each could rank in the top 10 by mid season next year if they continue their 2010 results. Both showed improved command and each has a chance to be special.

16. Martin Perez L -

17. Casey Kelly R - 

18. Micheal Montgomery L -

*** Perez, Kelly, and Monty are elite prospects who have some ?'s going forward. Nothing major i just want to make sure Perez and Kelly's command return and Monty is healthy before returning them. All were young for AA so it's not a major issue with any just want to see the results return.

19. Jacob Turner R - Great FB but secondary stuff is a little raw. Once his stuff refines his secondary stuff to match his pitching savvy he could dominate.

20. Manny Banuelos L - Always had great command now has the stuff to give him a TOR profile. A LH version of Roy Oswalt is an excellent comp. Even though all short SP get the Oswalt comp I think this 1 fits. Needs to get all 3 pitches working at the same time for better consistency.

21. John Lamb L - Brings quality stuff to go with excellent command/pitchability and was tabbed as a breakout candidate for 2010 by me. Gives me a Tom Glavine type vibe.

22. Zack Wheeler R - Combines 3 quality pitches and outstanding GB% who may be a big riser in 2011.

23. Drew Pomeranz L - This guy is a bit underrated imo. 2 plus pitches with a solid CU from a deceptive arm angle which will make his stuff play up even more.

24. Brody Colvin R - How I love me some Brody Colvin. Great FB to go with a good CU that came better then advertised. CB is a bit slurvy and if he can tighten it up may be a 3rd plus pitch. Pitches beyond his age. Dominated the "Sally" after a slow start.

25. Zach Lee R - The last player on my list is all projection at this point but have seen rave reviews of this kid. FB sits 90-93 but may sit mid 90's once he fills out. Good command with a sharp slider and promising CU. Athletic and surprisingly polished for a 2 sport star. Now I definately could slot many ahead of him but I am a believer.

(Players who were under consideration but not limited to) H.M. - Danny Duffy KCR, Chris Dwyer KCR, Anthony Renaudo BOS, Tyler Matzek COL, Simon Castro SD, Matt Harvey NYM, Chris Archer CHC, Tanner Schepperts TEX, Alex White CLE, Jake Ordozzi MIL, Jordan Lyles HOU.anny Banuelos

Who is the Chicago Cubs best pitching prospect? Most people have Archer as a borderline top 50 and the Cubs best pitching prosepct. Trey McNutt is usually sitting somwhere in the back end of top 100 lists and generally the Cubs #3 prospect. For both of my top 30 Cubs prospect lists has seen McNutt #1 and Archer#3. BP rated both players as 4 star prospects with McNutt 1 spot ahead of Archer. Let's take a look at both from a scouting and numbers standpoint.

McNutt has an athletic 6'4 205 frame. Stuff wise I think they are fairly close. McNutt  offers 2 plus-plus pitches with his 92-98 mph FB that he can blow by hitters with good life and a power breaking pitch that is more of a SL then CB that is a true swing and miss pitch. McNutt shows promise with his CU but needs to use it more. McNutt does soemtimes tends to overthrow. While he is a bit of a flyball pitcher he does not give up many HR.

Archer also has an athletic frame but a bit more slight at 6'3 180. Archer has great stuff running his FB up to 98 mph and usually sitting 91-94 with sink and armside run. I've seen his FB called plus but also seen comments that it can be flat and offers just average life. His SL is among the best breaking pitches in the minors so much so that he struggles to control it. The pitch ranges from average to plus-plus. Archers CU has improved and flashes good potential with sink. Archer's stuff generates above average GB% and keeps the ball in the park evidence by just 6 HRA this year and 0 in 2009.  

Command wise Archer started the year looking like he had improve his command (3.2 bb/9) at high A while attacking hitters and trusting his stuff. Unfourtunately he regressed to 5 bb/9 upon his promotion to AA and was nibbling some. Archer has always had command/control issues and I fear moving up to more advanced hitters in AAA and the ML level this number could rise. McNutt on the other hand improved as the year went on 3.67 bb/9 low A 59 ip, 2.26 over 67 2/3 ip between high A and AA (i’m including his 2 playoff starts for AA).  With stuff being fairly equal depending on who you prefer this  is what sets them apart. Early in the year McNutt was overthrowing and as the year wore on his command improved.

Archer had a fantastic season in 2010 no doubt. Looking deeper into the numbers it was basically a carbon copy of his solid 2009 season in his 2nd go around in the Midwest league. The difference being he played on much better teams in 2010 and luck also contributed to the lowered ERA and higher win total. Both players posted great k/9, h/9, and BAA against numbers. The difference here is that Archers sensational AA showing was fueled in part by a ridiculously high LOB% 81.2% and fairly low .261 BABIP. While I know FIP sometimes is not a good indicator for GB pitchers but he did post a 1.61 diference between ERA and FIP at AA.

McNutt on the other hand posted a fairly low 67% LOB% in high A and extremely low 58.6% in a small sample size at AA which also saw a BABIP of .379 that contributed to his struggles in AA. And while he did struggle in the AA regular season he bounced back in 2 playoff starts with 11ip 9h 3er 4bb 12k's winning 1 and losing 1 in which he gave up just 2 er in 6 ip.

Obviously I'm higher on McNutt as he zoomed through 3 levels as a 20 year old in his 1st  full pro seaosn. Archer has great stuff and season but I still think there is a greater chance he ends up in the bullpen  ala Carlos Marmol then McNutt who's worst case senerio is he could close right now. I like both and hope both will start but right now I feel McNutt is on the cusp of being an elite prospect primed for a breakout ( I know 2010 was to some extent) season in 2011.

I've included a poll and please discuss why you voted either if you are so inclined.

Let me start this post by saying that trading for Zack Greinke is probably low in probability but feel we should at least explore the possibility and clear up some things about how good Greinke is. The thing is while I do point out that it is not likely when a legitimate 27 year old ace with 2 years left on his contract at 13.5 each season becomes available you really need to explore the situation. Let's start by breaking Greinke down.

Zack Greinke the 2009 A.L. Cy Young award winner is as talented of a pitcher as there is on the league.  Greinke features an excellent 4 pitch arsenal starting with a plus FB that averages 93.5 mph over the last 3 years. He does a good job with the pitch changing speeds and eye level. His slider is plus-plus and widely regarded as the best SL in the game averaging 85 mph. He also throws a hard and slow CB (74.3). 2009 in watching him pitch I saw him in 1 AB throw a hard 82 mph CB then come right back with a 64 mph version of the pitch. His CU is solid also (82.7) giving him good seperation from his FB.

Before brekaing down the numbers I want to point out while he did leave the team for a time for depression he has by all accounts gotten this under control. Many Americans suffer from this and still live productive lives. As far as the Chicago media market goes  I don't forsee it being a problem considering that we just want a winner. Greinke has always put his terrible Royals teams in a position to win. 

For numbers sake I'm just gong to use the last 3 years for a number of reasons. 1st this is an excellent article to read before I get into his numbers.

 
http://www.royalsreview.com/2010/11/29/1842598/era-and-defense

2008 - 13-10 3.47 202 IP 183/56 K/BB  3.56 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) 4.9 WAR $22.3 value

2009 - 16-8 2.16 229.1 242/52  2.33  9.4  WAR  $42.5

* Lost 3 games 1-0 in which he went 8 IP and numerous other times he left w/ the lead and the bullpen blew it.

2010 - 10-14 4.17 220.1 181/55  3.34  5.2  $21

The 2010 season w-l and era do look bad but if really look deeeper into the numbers you'll see that both FIP (3.34) and the article above show that he is much better then his 4.17 era and obviously the Royals don't score many runs for him leading to the weak w-l record. Now why do we need Greinke? Well look at the playoff teams rotations. Dempster/Z are at best #3 and more like 4/5 on teams like the Yankees, Rays, Giants, and Phillies. To win in the playoffs you must have a legitimate ace and you can overcome better teams if you also have a 2nd ace caliber pitcher.

Potential Pakages:

This is where things get sticky. The Red Sox and Yankees are in a much better position to offer what it would take to get Grienke because of the blue chip players in the system. We don't have that elite minor leaguer so it probably takes 2 of our top guys and 1-2 intriguing lesser guys with upside. The Royals have a ton of LH pithcing prospects but lack a good RHP. While they have 2010 draft pick Christian Colon currently at SS I think ( as well as most scouts) he profiles better as a 2B. They alost could use OF help. While I've advocated not trading our minor league depth I do think this is an exceptional case imo.

Talks probably start with BJax and this is the 1 players in our system that I'd like to hang onto. He offers a safe chance to become a good regular and we could really use his bat which is close. If it absolutley had to include BJax I'd probably say walk. The package would probably start with 1 of our RHP in Archer, Cashner, and McNutt. I would not go with McNutt either because I feel his FB/SL grades out at elast a tick better then Archers and his command is far better. Start with Archer or Cashner then probably Lee is the most likely with a 3rd player being something like Dolis/Colvin/Guyer/Lake/J.Jackson. I don't think  that's to unreasonable.

Ideally in a perfect world this would be our play dealing Archer/Lee/ and probably Colvin. Berkman looks like he's gonna sign w/ Colorado (great fit for both imo) either get Laroche or Overbay as a fallback for 1 year. Earmark 7-9 million for the 2010 drat. Go with a safe college player with our 1st if you want (preferably a bat) then spend some money on some tough signs ala Brody Colvin, Jonathan Singleton, Garin Ceccini types to refill our organizational depth and adding some high end talent. I would deal Aramis Ramirez at the deadline to gradb a couple decent close prospects. Then when t=next years much deeper FA class comes available spend some money on someone like, Cano, Fielder, AGon, Cain, and maybe look at someone like Broxton or Grady.

While I do understand that some may sign especially Cano these guys are much younger and more impact players then what's available for us now. We can justify spending money in next offseason because we lose Arams contract then Dempster/Z after the '11 season.

Now I udnerstand this is probably not gonna play out this way because honestly it makes far to much sense. So please don't get on and tell me how unlikely this is because I know but I feel I've laid out an excellent plan in becoming a legitimate W.S. contender in 2011. Please feel free to discuss or lay out some of your plans.

I know it's early to be thinking about the 2011 draft but might as well take a look at some guys that might be available for us next year. Now obviously players stocks will change from now till the draft but I figured it might be fun to look at some players that could/should be on the Cubs radar. Last year I did my draft work on Wrigley Bound but since the site seems to be defunct so I'll do some tracking of players over here. This is just a quick look while I compile more scouting reports as we move closer to draft day. We have the 9th pick in a very deep crop and hopefully still have a fairly early 2nd rounder depending on what we do in FA.

The big 3 this year of 3B Anthony Rendon, LHP Matt Purke, and RHP Garrit Cole will almost surely not be available at 9 for us but we should still get a high level talent. The scouting reports are short because I'm still sifting through contridicting reports from numerous sites so I'll just give the highlights. This is just a short list...more to come.

Hitters:

OF. George Springer - UConn - Probably another player who will got before 9 but he has plus power and solid tools across the board. Springer offers a ton of potential and currently the 2nd best college bat in this years crop. Springer IF available would offer something the system needs..power hitting corner OF (though he is currently playing CF).

3B/OF. Travis Harrison - Calf. H.S. - Best prep power bat and good athletism. Again something the system could use.

OF. Jackie Bradley Jr. - S. Carolina - This may very well be the Cubs pick. A safe college bat this switch hitting CF has no plus tools but a well rounded package. Had some wrist issues last year and I have heard he may add some power. Could be something like BJax.

OF. Bubba Starling - Kansas H.S. - Ridiculously talented athlete is commited to Nebraska to play QB. This is someone who is gonna be volitlile considering his 2 sports status and probable signability concerns. Could go as early as 4 or might fall similar to Austin Wilson in '10. Can pitch and has great bat speed. A very intriguing prospect.

Pitchers:

RHP. Sonny Gray - Vanderbilt - Smallish at 6'0 185 and the Cubs have shown they are not afraid of small RHP. Has frontline stuff w/ low 90's Fb that can reach 95, and a nasty low to mid 80s slider. A good athlete and student who plays QB. This is a guy I like.

RHP Taylor Jungmann - Texas - 6'6 and wiry @ 195 punds has a good FB that sits in the low 90's that can touch 96. Potential plus slider and average CB w/ a current promising CU that could be above average. This is another safe play the Cubs may explore. While not considered a potential ace he is easily as safe as a #3 you could ask for with a ceiling of a #2.

LHP Daniel Norris - Tenn. H.S. - This is someone who would fill a big need if we go pitcher...a power lefty. 91-95 FB, above average to plus CB and a suprisingly developed CU. Needs some polish but could be a real stud when all is said and done.

RHP Archie Bradley - Oak. H.S. - Mid 90s FB w/ a plus curve. Good athlete. I really like this kids upside.

So here's 8 guys we should be aware of. If the Cubs go safe w/ Jungmann or Bradley I wouldn't be that surprised and maybe prudent but we really need to spend money later in the draft  like Philly/Bos/Pit did in 2010. I don't mind going conservitive w/ our 1st pick as long as Ricketts sticks to what he has said and spends money on the draft. We may not break the bank on our #1 but in such a deep draft we should be able to draft some guys later w/ signability concerns who could pay big dividends and in turn give us what we lack...true A.S. caliber talent. I will continue to post little pieces on guys as we move along. Hopefully this is something the community is interested in.

On the 24th of this month the Blue Jays declined to offer Lyle Overbay salary arbitration. This in my opinion should be the Cubs number 1 option for 1B. Coming off a year in which he struggled .243/.329/.433 and making 7.9M in 2010 the Cubs may be able to get him for a 1 or 2 year deal in the range of 5-6M per.

Now I know he's not the sexy prototypical power hitting 1B but he has some nice skills that would fit nicely into the Cubs line up. He hits lefty, draws walks, double machine, who plays a solid 1B. A career .274 hitter w/ .358 OBP. He did hit 20 hr last year and should be good for 15-20 in Wrigley. A reasonable expectation of .270/.360/450 15 hr 35 2b would make him a really nice value.

Nice little story by our friends over at fangraphs.com on him:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lyle-overbay-graphs/

Like I said he's not sexy but he is a pretty consistent 2 WAR player who could be had at a very reasonable price. I think he fits into what the Cubs need to be doing for next year in not adding anymore long term contracts and not trading any prospects while providing a player who could be a nice regular who would give us a chance to compete in 2011.

This is potentially what the Cubs line up could look like in 2013. Now as always this won't be what we will probably actually look like because of FA, trades, and prospects not panning out. This is just my take and of coarse you can argue your take since there are numerous players who are interchangable. I think by 2013 we could be in a position to be a contender. By this time Castro, BJax, McNutt, Archer, Cashner, J.Jackson, and Carpenter should all have some ML expierence.

C. Robinson Chirinos  (R)

1B. Geovanny Soto (R) - Will get an occasional start behind the plate.

2B. Hak-Ju Lee (L) - Should be ready by mid-season.

3B. Josh Vitters (R) - Potentially a solid starter posting 270-280 15+ HR

SS. Starlin Castro (R) - Should be coming into his own as an A.S.

RF. Tyler Colvin (L) - For lack of a better option that I can see at this point. Guyer or Lake may be possibilities.

CF. Brett Jackson (L) - Should have about 700-800 ML ABs by opening day and ready to be a solid contributer.

LF. Alfonso Soriano (R) - Will be in last year of contract and probably not real productive. Maybe on the bench in favor of Guyer or Lake.

Bench:

C. Wellington Castillo (R)

IF. Darwin Barney (R)

2B/3B/1B. Blake DeWitt (L)

OF. Brandon Guyer (R)

IF/OF. Junior Lake (R)

Starting Pitchers:

R. Ryan Dempster - Will be on the downside of his career.

R. Trey McNutt - I think he could be coming into his own as 1 of the best young Sp in the game.

R. Chris Archer - Not sure he'll stick as a SP.

R. Chris Carpenter - Back end starter should eat innings and post around a 4 era.

L. Sean Marshall - Return to the rotation for our lefty arm.

Bullpen:

CL. Carlos Marmol

Set-Up. Andrew Cashner/Rafael Dolis - Power Arms w/ high 90s FB and nasty breaking pitches will play up in short stints.

Long Man. Jay Jackson - Spot starter and middle releiver.

Lefty. Chris Rusin - Could be a nice lefty specialist ala Sean Marshall.

Lefty. Brooks Raley

Player in our system who maybe ready to contribute in 2013:

RHP. Hayden Simpson

IF. D.J. LeMahieu

OF. Jae-Hoon Ha

Line Up:

1. 2B Lee

2. SS Castro

3. CF B. Jackson

4. 1B. Soto

5. 3B. Vitters

6. RF. Colvin

7. LF. Soriano

8. C Chirinos

This could be a solid group with Castro as the star and if Vitters, BJax, and Lee ready to be just solid players and Geo still hitting the line up has potential to be solid. The SP should be deep with some shuffling of starters and relievers.

Even if Vitters, BJax, Lee, McNutt, Archer, and others are just solid players combined with Castro this is a real solid talent base. Now coming into 2013 the Cubs could be in an enviable postition. With the contracts of Soriano and Dempster coming off the books at the end of '13 and the only other long term contracts belonging to Soto and Marmol and the rest of the team cost controled we would have a real flexiable roster. This is why I advocate staying away from guys like Dunn this year and next year in free agency. Coming into 2013 depending on the FA landscape we would have the payroll to add a big name bat/SP or both. Also depending on the state of the farm system the potential to make a deadline deal that could be the piece we need to put us over the top.

Of coarse not everyone is gonna pan out and other changes will be made but this is just me dreaming away. Let me know your thoughts as I'm sure the community will see players in different roles because this is just speculation.

Just a quick post here before I head off to work. Josh Vitters made the "AFL Rising Stars" roster this year and will play in the Saturday All-Star game this year. While he didn't lite the world on fire he had a pretty solid showing considering he had been laid off since July. .255/.311/.436 triple slash line isn't wowing anyone but like I said considering the layoff and rust not bad. He did hit 2 HR and 4 2B with 11 RBI. 

Also very encouraging was his 5 BB (9%) in 55 ABs. Also K'd just 6 times (10.9%). To be noted the AFL is usually weak on top pitching prospects as opposed to the elite hitting that is usually sent. Maybe the most encouraging thing I kept reading was how good he looked defensively. I seen numerous scouts say that he looked pretty solid and comfortable at 3B.

* Also to be noted Chris Carpenter also made the "AFL Rising Stars" roster.    

Note: this is a duplicate post from the BCB. I'm Posting here for some feedback.

Rankings:

I'm sure the McNutt ranking will be contraversial. I'm sure most will either have BJax or Archer #1 with McNutt coming 3rd. From my standpoint I see McNutts FB/SL grading out better then Archer's with both of their CU being roughly equal but McNutts improved command as the season wore on gives him the edge imo. 2 things to be noted McNutt had only 127 IP and 20 years old coming into AA this year and I feel he has more upside remaining then Archer.

With the overall rankings this is just a rough draft that I plan to re-post just before BA come sout with their top 10. So don't be overly concerned with exact placing but look more at the players on the list.

1. Trey McNutt RHP - Strong build (6'4 205) with a FB siting 92-98 and a hard slider with both pitches grading out as plus-plus. CU shows promise and command improved as the season wore on. Attacks hitters with a bulldog mentality. Has the stuff to be an ace with a conservative upside of a #2. Worse case senario he could close but I see no reason why he won't continue to start.

2. Brett Jackson CF - 5 tool talent. I've used Grady-lite comps but I'm not sure if he will ever post high BA. Strikes out to much but draws a ton of walks. After a 8/19 start upon his promotion to AA only hit .258 (209 ABS) the rest of the way. Very streaky hitter. Profiles more as a solid regular on a 1st divsion team then an A.S. Solid all around game that to me profiles more as a Mike Cameron type offensively. Won't be the defender Cameron is but get's good jumps with accurate arm that is plenty for CF.

3. Chris Archer RHP - Velocity saw a jump to go with his bat splintering SL. FB has average life and his SL ranges from average to plus. Fantastic season 15-2 2.34 9.4 K/9 between high A and AA. Saw a regression in command when promoted to AA going from 3.2 BB/9 in high A to 5.0  in AA. In high A he was attacking hitters and trusting his stuff then seemed to go back to nibbling to much. Get's ground balls and keeps the ball in the park. Upside of a good #2 but will be more of a 3/4 or bullpen arm unless he can take long term steps forward with his command.

4. Hak-Ju Lee SS - Had a nice season in his full season debut. Ranked as the 13th best prospect in a loaded Midwest League. Seems scouts expected more but I think it was pretty much everything you could have hoped for. I did a season in review post and here is the link:

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2010/9/11/1682197/season-in-review-hak-ju-lee

Hit .282, walked 8.9% of the time, and stole 32 bases (82% success rate) showing he has the skills to be a good lead off hitter. In my review I said he could end up moving Castro to 2B and it seems that might not be the case from what scouts said. Even if he moves to 2B he would combine with Castro for a good DP combo as well as a nice 1-2 hitter at the top of the line up. If he can just add a little power his offesive ceiling could realy take off.

5. Josh Vitters 3B - Stock has been on the decline since being drafted. Has not been allowed to play a full year at any level to date. Has struggled initially at each level but has come back to hit. PD was improving and was just starting to hit (.303 33 ABS) in AA when a hand injury sidelined him for the year. Just 21 it seems he's been around forever and was rushed to AA at 20. Needs to spend every minute of 2011 in AA and let's really get a chance to see what he can do.

6. Chris Carpenter RHP - Potential innings eating # 3/4 starter. Has good stuff 91-94 mph FB that can touch 97 with good life creating lot's of groundballs. Mid 80s slurve with bite and depth. Solid CU. Needs to work on command.

7. Jae-Hoon Ha OF - Had an excellent season in a stacked Midwest League. Did not make the league's top 20 according to BA but probably would have in another year. Posted an .802 OPS and his power started emerging as the season went on. Has good speed while posting .150 ISO and +18 wRC (or basically saying he was 18% better then the league average). Put's easy wood on the ball but 3.2% walk rate will need to improve as he advances. Overall I like the direction he's headed and if he can improve his ability to work counts could be a real good player.

8. Jay Jackson RHP - Stock down after a disapointing season that saw him give up a ton of HR. Nice 4 pitch mix but will need to improve his HR% to succeed at the ML level.

9. Rafael Dolis RHP - Elite stuff starting with a very heavy mid 90s FB that reportly can touch triple digits. 85-87 mph wipeout slider that is a 2nd plus pitch. CU is a work in progress. Considering he just started pitching in 2006 he put up a real promising season overall and held his own in AA with only 226 IP coming into the Southern League. Generates a ton of groundballs. With the hard stuff he offers you'd like to see a better then 6.6 K/9. Still learning to pitch and did post a better K/9 (7.3) after his promotion to AA. Needs to work on his control to reach his potential. Still questions about his ability to start long term but with his 2 hard pitchs could be a late inning reliever.

10. Robinson Lopez RHP - Key player aquired in the Derek Lee deal. Elite velocity siting 93-96 at times but poor command leaves this pitch just average but with potential. CB shows promise with hard 10-5 break that could be a swing and miss pitch if he can refine it and be more consistent. The CU shows real promise in bullpen sesions according to Mike Newman of socutingthesally.com. Could have 3 average to above average pitches if things come together but right now is just a lottery tickett. Newman in his thoughts on BA "Sally" top 20 said he would esily taken Lopez over Trevor May, Robbie Ross and even Arodys Vizcaino. It will be interesting to see what the Cubs can do with him considering the strides they made with Cashner and Archer.

11. Reggie Golden OF - Profiles as a prototypical RF with well above average power and arm. Has above average current speed but will probably lose some as his body matures but should still be average. Has serious PD issues. Needs to work on recognizing breaking stuff. I know this is a small sample size but 7 K's in 15 Abs in rookie ball shows he has a lot of work to do. Golden is the quintessential high risk high reward player.

12. Darwin Barney SS - 4 average tools that play up because of instincts and intelligence. I like him and should be a usefull untility player who has been a winner. Not flashy but does all the little things right.

13. Robinson Chirinos C - Had a Geo Soto-esque breakout season at 26. I'm still a little skeptical but always showed power/on base skills throughout his minor league career.

14. Austin Kirk LHP - Quality stuff for this lefty with a FB sitting 88-91 and touching 92 that explodes on hitters. Improving CB and advanced CU for a player his age. Get's GB and throws strikes. Maybe a breakout player in 2011.

15. D.J. LeMahieu IF - Had a ridiculous 2nd half of the season ending with a .314 AVG. Best pure hitter in the system. He grew on me this year. Profiles as a UTL player now but if he can start turning on some balls and grow into some power could be an offensive minded 2B. The big question with him is will he ever develop power from his 6'4 185 frame.

16. Junior Lake SS - Seemed to figure some things out this season. Walk rate jumped from 3.7% last year to 8.1% this year is very encouraging. Flashed the ability to hit for power. Has the best arm in the organization. Will eventually have to move off SS but has the arm and range to play 3B. AA should be telling in 2011 if this step forward was for real. If he can continue to improve could jump up this list.

17. Su-Min Jung RHP - This is a player I'm far more bullish on then anyone else. I love this kid's arm. FB sits in the low 90's but can reach back and get 95 to go with a power curve that could be above average. CU is a work in progress. Command is the key here. Had a 2 month stretch where he was pretty dominant untill a 1 inning 6 walk outing skewed his numbers. I have tabbed him a breakout candidate for 2011 and if he can harness his control he could really take off.

18. Brandon Guyer OF - Solid all around skills. Had an outstanding season in 2010 ranking as the 14th best prospect in the Southern League according to BA. Has stole 60 bases while being caught only 10 times over the past 2 years. Profiles more as a 4th OF type.

19. Hayden Simpson RHP - Considered a reach in the 1st round this year but has a nice 4 pitch arsenal that he commands well. Small stature maybe a poor mans Roy Oswalt. Wilken has shown a knack for finding unknown arms. Has yet to make debut.

20. Ryan Flaherty IF -  I'm just not a believer in his bat. This is actually a little high imo and will probably be moving down. Has power but at 24 still hasn't shown he can hit AA pithcing. Has been old for every level.

21. Ben Wells RHP - 7th rounder that got an over slot 530K to sign. Velo jumped to 90-94 in the spring. Has a hard slider and splitter. Could be a steal and reminds me some of Wade Davis.

22. Chris Rusin LHP - Curveball specialist that put together a nice season that saw him rise to AA. FB sits in the 87-89 range and is considered "lively". CU is a work in progress. Gets GB and throws strikes. Probably profiles better as a lefty releiver then a long term starter.

23. Brooks Raley LHP - Athletic lefty who has little left in the way of projection. Classic tale of 2 seasons. 2-5 5.93 pre-A.S. 6-1 1.87 post A.S. What is the reality? Probably somewhere in between the 2 splits. Stuff is average and may end up in the bullpen.

24. Matt Szczur OF - 2010 5th rounder who is raw for a college player. After a nice debut returned to Vandy to play football which clouds his future. Has 80 speed and good on base skills. No power and fringy arm are his draw backs. Is a tireless worker who could make strides if he decides to focus on baseball.

25. Kim Jin-Yeong RHP - This ranking is purely based on scouting reports. Got 1.2m to sign and hasn't yet made it stateside yet. FB get's up to 92 with a CB, SL, and CU. Has above average control for a player his age.

26. Austin Reed RHP - Good debut from this 12th rounder who dropped that far because of signability issues. Inteligent pitcher who got Jon Garland comps. Has a nice 3 pitch mix. FB sits 88-91 that may get better as he matures. Ranked 11th on BA AZL top 20.

27. Matt Cerda 2B - Scrapy player who draws a ton of walks. Was playing 3B in the Midwest League because of Lee/Watkins but is really a 2B. Probably a role player at this point with his skills. Draws a ton of walks (68) but not much speed or power which limits his upside.

28. Casey Coleman RHP - Had a decent late season ML debut. Fringy FB, solid CB, and the best CU in the system combined with above average command. Profiles as a #5 or long reliever.

29. Logan Watkins 2B -  Disapointing season that saw his AVG drop and Ks rise. Best tools are his plus speed and ability to draw walks. Could be a super UTL player. No current power clouds his future. Will look to rebound in high A next year.

30.  Alberto Cabrera RHP - Intriguing arm that shows the potential for 3 average to above average pitches. Can hit 94 with the FB. Was putting together a great season in high A before being promoted to AA where he got rocked. Upon returning to high A he continued getting shelled. Solid preriphials with a 8.3 K/9 3.3 BB/9 7 HRA and 1.30 GO/AO that were skewed a bit by his late seaosn collapse. Just 22 and has promise.

BONUS:

**Daniel Sanchez SS - 16 year old, 6'2 170 Dominican SS, who signed for 500K. Has above average power and average tools the rest of the way. Should start next season in the DSL hopefully.

**Kyung-Min Na OF - Very similar player to Hak-Ju Lee. Recieved 725K last year out of Korea. At 18 probably should have played in rookie ball this year. Obviously over matched in SS-A ball. Like Lee he has no current power but has blazing speed and already offers ML caliber defense covering lot's of ground and sporting a great arm. Draws walks and is a great bunter. Probably needs to play in rookie ball in 2011 or worst case a 2nd go aorund in SS-A imho.

**Arismendy Alcantara   SS -  Very intriguing prospect who is a sleeper at this point. Put together a very solid season in SS-A ball as an 18 year old. Switch hitter who has some projection. Not real sure on his exact scouting report but I do like what I've seen so far. Probably ticketed to be Peoria's starting SS next year and hopefully I can watch him play next year.

Honarable Mention:

Wellington Castillio C, Dae-Eun Rhee RHP, Micah Gibbs C, Kyler Burke OF, Brett Wallach RHP, Pin Chieh Chen 2B, Aaron Kurcz RHP, Pierre La Page 2B, David Cales RHP, John Gaub RHP, Jeffrey Antigua LHP

Rankings:

I'm sure the McNutt ranking will be contraversial. I'm sure most will either have BJax or Archer #1 with McNutt coming 3rd. From my standpoint I see McNutts FB/SL grading out better then Archer's with both of their CU being roughly equal but McNutts improved command as the season wore on gives him the edge imo. 2 things to be noted McNutt had only 127 IP and 20 years old coming into AA this year and I feel he has more upside remaining then Archer.

With the overall rankings this is just a rough draft that I plan to re-post just before BA come sout with their top 10. So don't be overly concerned with exact placing but look more at the players on the list.

1. Trey McNutt RHP - Strong build (6'4 205) with a FB siting 92-98 and a hard slider with both pitches grading out as plus-plus. CU shows promise and command improved as the season wore on. Attacks hitters with a bulldog mentality. Has the stuff to be an ace with a conservative upside of a #2. Worse case senario he could close but I see no reason why he won't continue to start.

2. Brett Jackson CF - 5 tool talent. I've used Grady-lite comps but I'm not sure if he will ever post high BA. Strikes out to much but draws a ton of walks. After a 8/19 start upon his promotion to AA only hit .258 (209 ABS) the rest of the way. Very streaky hitter. Profiles more as a solid regular on a 1st divsion team then an A.S. Solid all around game that to me profiles more as a Mike Cameron type offensively. Won't be the defender Cameron is but get's good jumps with accurate arm that is plenty for CF.

3. Chris Archer RHP - Velocity saw a jump to go with his bat splintering SL. FB has average life and his SL ranges from average to plus. Fantastic season 15-2 2.34 9.4 K/9 between high A and AA. Saw a regression in command when promoted to AA going from 3.2 BB/9 in high A to 5.0  in AA. In high A he was attacking hitters and trusting his stuff then seemed to go back to nibbling to much. Get's ground balls and keeps the ball in the park. Upside of a good #2 but will be more of a 3/4 or bullpen arm unless he can take long term steps forward with his command.

4. Hak-Ju Lee SS - Had a nice season in his full season debut. Ranked as the 13th best prospect in a loaded Midwest League. Seems scouts expected more but I think it was pretty much everything you could have hoped for. I did a season in review post and here is the link:

http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2010/9/11/1682197/season-in-review-hak-ju-lee

Hit .282, walked 8.9% of the time, and stole 32 bases (82% success rate) showing he has the skills to be a good lead off hitter. In my review I said he could end up moving Castro to 2B and it seems that might not be the case from what scouts said. Even if he moves to 2B he would combine with Castro for a good DP combo as well as a nice 1-2 hitter at the top of the line up. If he can just add a little power his offesive ceiling could realy take off.

5. Josh Vitters 3B - Stock has been on the decline since being drafted. Has not been allowed to play a full year at any level to date. Has struggled initially at each level but has come back to hit. PD was improving and was just starting to hit (.303 33 ABS) in AA when a hand injury sidelined him for the year. Just 21 it seems he's been around forever and was rushed to AA at 20. Needs to spend every minute of 2011 in AA and let's really get a chance to see what he can do.

6. Chris Carpenter RHP - Potential innings eating # 3/4 starter. Has good stuff 91-94 mph FB that can touch 97 with good life creating lot's of groundballs. Mid 80s slurve with bite and depth. Solid CU. Needs to work on command.

7. Jae-Hoon Ha OF - Had an excellent season in a stacked Midwest League. Did not make the league's top 20 according to BA but probably would have in another year. Posted an .802 OPS and his power started emerging as the season went on. Has good speed while posting .150 ISO and +18 wRC (or basically saying he was 18% better then the league average). Put's easy wood on the ball but 3.2% walk rate will need to improve as he advances. Overall I like the direction he's headed and if he can improve his ability to work counts could be a real good player.

8. Jay Jackson RHP - Stock down after a disapointing season that saw him give up a ton of HR. Nice 4 pitch mix but will need to improve his HR% to succeed at the ML level.

9. Rafael Dolis RHP - Elite stuff starting with a very heavy mid 90s FB that reportly can touch triple digits. 85-87 mph wipeout slider that is a 2nd plus pitch. CU is a work in progress. Considering he just started pitching in 2006 he put up a real promising season overall and held his own in AA with only 226 IP coming into the Southern League. Generates a ton of groundballs. With the hard stuff he offers you'd like to see a better then 6.6 K/9. Still learning to pitch and did post a better K/9 (7.3) after his promotion to AA. Needs to work on his control to reach his potential. Still questions about his ability to start long term but with his 2 hard pitchs could be a late inning reliever.

10. Robinson Lopez RHP - Key player aquired in the Derek Lee deal. Elite velocity siting 93-96 at times but poor command leaves this pitch just average but with potential. CB shows promise with hard 10-5 break that could be a swing and miss pitch if he can refine it and be more consistent. The CU shows real promise in bullpen sesions according to Mike Newman of socutingthesally.com. Could have 3 average to above average pitches if things come together but right now is just a lottery tickett. Newman in his thoughts on BA "Sally" top 20 said he would esily taken Lopez over Trevor May, Robbie Ross and even Arodys Vizcaino. It will be interesting to see what the Cubs can do with him considering the strides they made with Cashner and Archer.

11. Reggie Golden OF - Profiles as a prototypical RF with well above average power and arm. Has above average current speed but will probably lose some as his body matures but should still be average. Has serious PD issues. Needs to work on recognizing breaking stuff. I know this is a small sample size but 7 K's in 15 Abs in rookie ball shows he has a lot of work to do. Golden is the quintessential high risk high reward player.

12. Darwin Barney SS - 4 average tools that play up because of instincts and intelligence. I like him and should be a usefull untility player who has been a winner. Not flashy but does all the little things right.

13. Robinson Chirinos C - Had a Geo Soto-esque breakout season at 26. I'm still a little skeptical but always showed power/on base skills throughout his minor league career.

14. Austin Kirk LHP - Quality stuff for this lefty with a FB sitting 88-91 and touching 92 that explodes on hitters. Improving CB and advanced CU for a player his age. Get's GB and throws strikes. Maybe a breakout player in 2011.

15. D.J. LeMahieu IF - Had a ridiculous 2nd half of the season ending with a .314 AVG. Best pure hitter in the system. He grew on me this year. Profiles as a UTL player now but if he can start turning on some balls and grow into some power could be an offensive minded 2B. The big question with him is will he ever develop power from his 6'4 185 frame.

16. Junior Lake SS - Seemed to figure some things out this season. Walk rate jumped from 3.7% last year to 8.1% this year is very encouraging. Flashed the ability to hit for power. Has the best arm in the organization. Will eventually have to move off SS but has the arm and range to play 3B. AA should be telling in 2011 if this step forward was for real. If he can continue to improve could jump up this list.

17. Su-Min Jung RHP - This is a player I'm far more bullish on then anyone else. I love this kid's arm. FB sits in the low 90's but can reach back and get 95 to go with a power curve that could be above average. CU is a work in progress. Command is the key here. Had a 2 month stretch where he was pretty dominant untill a 1 inning 6 walk outing skewed his numbers. I have tabbed him a breakout candidate for 2011 and if he can harness his control he could really take off.

18. Brandon Guyer OF - Solid all around skills. Had an outstanding season in 2010 ranking as the 14th best prospect in the Southern League according to BA. Has stole 60 bases while being caught only 10 times over the past 2 years. Profiles more as a 4th OF type.

19. Hayden Simpson RHP - Considered a reach in the 1st round this year but has a nice 4 pitch arsenal that he commands well. Small stature maybe a poor mans Roy Oswalt. Wilken has shown a knack for finding unknown arms. Has yet to make debut.

20. Ryan Flaherty IF -  I'm just not a believer in his bat. This is actually a little high imo and will probably be moving down. Has power but at 24 still hasn't shown he can hit AA pithcing. Has been old for every level.

21. Ben Wells RHP - 7th rounder that got an over slot 530K to sign. Velo jumped to 90-94 in the spring. Has a hard slider and splitter. Could be a steal and reminds me some of Wade Davis.

22. Chris Rusin LHP - Curveball specialist that put together a nice season that saw him rise to AA. FB sits in the 87-89 range and is considered "lively". CU is a work in progress. Gets GB and throws strikes. Probably profiles better as a lefty releiver then a long term starter.

23. Brooks Raley LHP - Athletic lefty who has little left in the way of projection. Classic tale of 2 seasons. 2-5 5.93 pre-A.S. 6-1 1.87 post A.S. What is the reality? Probably somewhere in between the 2 splits. Stuff is average and may end up in the bullpen.

24. Matt Szczur OF - 2010 5th rounder who is raw for a college player. After a nice debut returned to Vandy to play football which clouds his future. Has 80 speed and good on base skills. No power and fringy arm are his draw backs. Is a tireless worker who could make strides if he decides to focus on baseball.

25. Kim Jin-Yeong RHP - This ranking is purely based on scouting reports. Got 1.2m to sign and hasn't yet made it stateside yet. FB get's up to 92 with a CB, SL, and CU. Has above average control for a player his age.

26. Austin Reed RHP - Good debut from this 12th rounder who dropped that far because of signability issues. Inteligent pitcher who got Jon Garland comps. Has a nice 3 pitch mix. FB sits 88-91 that may get better as he matures. Ranked 11th on BA AZL top 20.

27. Matt Cerda 2B - Scrapy player who draws a ton of walks. Was playing 3B in the Midwest League because of Lee/Watkins but is really a 2B. Probably a role player at this point with his skills. Draws a ton of walks (68) but not much speed or power which limits his upside.

28. Casey Coleman RHP - Had a decent late season ML debut. Fringy FB, solid CB, and the best CU in the system combined with above average command. Profiles as a #5 or long reliever.

29. Logan Watkins 2B -  Disapointing season that saw his AVG drop and Ks rise. Best tools are his plus speed and ability to draw walks. Could be a super UTL player. No current power clouds his future. Will look to rebound in high A next year.

30.  Alberto Cabrera RHP - Intriguing arm that shows the potential for 3 average to above average pitches. Can hit 94 with the FB. Was putting together a great season in high A before being promoted to AA where he got rocked. Upon returning to high A he continued getting shelled. Solid preriphials with a 8.3 K/9 3.3 BB/9 7 HRA and 1.30 GO/AO that were skewed a bit by his late seaosn collapse. Just 22 and has promise.

BONUS:

**Daniel Sanchez SS - 16 year old, 6'2 170 Dominican SS, who signed for 500K. Has above average power and average tools the rest of the way. Should start next season in the DSL hopefully.

**Kyung-Min Na OF - Very similar player to Hak-Ju Lee. Recieved 725K last year out of Korea. At 18 probably should have played in rookie ball this year. Obviously over matched in SS-A ball. Like Lee he has no current power but has blazing speed and already offers ML caliber defense covering lot's of ground and sporting a great arm. Draws walks and is a great bunter. Probably needs to play in rookie ball in 2011 or worst case a 2nd go aorund in SS-A imho.

**Arismendy Alcantara   SS -  Very intriguing prospect who is a sleeper at this point. Put together a very solid season in SS-A ball as an 18 year old. Switch hitter who has some projection. Not real sure on his exact scouting report but I do like what I've seen so far. Probably ticketed to be Peoria's starting SS next year and hopefully I can watch him play next year.

Honarable Mention:

Wellington Castillio C, Dae-Eun Rhee RHP, Micah Gibbs C, Kyler Burke OF, Brett Wallach RHP, Pin Chieh Chen 2B, Aaron Kurcz RHP, Pierre La Page 2B, David Cales RHP, John Gaub RHP, Jeffrey Antigua LHP

System Overview:

Overall I see Archer, Jackson, Carpenter, and Lee as solid regulars. We have some intriguing players in Ha, Dolis, Lopez, Golden, Lake, Jung, and Kirk, etc. but even if they hit their ceilings it's more solid regulars at best. This system lacks potential all-stars. McNutt I beleive has the potential to be an ace but we still need to see what he does in 2011 and even if he levels out he's another solid player. The system has lot's of speed but lacks power. Lot's of power arms with intriguie but many may end up in the bullpen. I understand that this is true of most Sp in the minors but the questions seem more prevelent with this stable of arms. 

I like the system overall but the Cubs really need to spend heavily in the 2011 draft for high upside talent. Potentially Archer, both Jacksons, Carpenter, Chirinos, Barney,  Guyer, and maybe McNutt could be on the roster by late 2011 leaving this system Houston Astros thin circa 2008 and before. in my "Mid Season Cubs Top 30" I thought this could be an elite system. Being honest I spent most of this year doing work on the BCB and Wrigley Bound and much less time on the MiLB players as I had in the past and overrated the system. This is realy a 20-25 system.

The 2011 draft will be really telling to where this system will be going.