SB Nation User Blog: cuppettcj

Excerpts From Tim Donaghy's New Book

cuppettcj — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 12:42:06 -0000

Excerpts From Tim Donaghy's New Book

I'm surprised that nobody has linked to this yet. I've been hearing about it nonstop for the past two days. Even though Donaghy has no credibility, I believe him because he is confirming what I have suspected for a long time. He also gives very specific details that would take a lot of creativity to make up.

On a related note, if anybody saw that play two nights ago where LeBron James barreled into Chris Bosh late in the 4th quarter, while the Cavs were attempting a furious comeback, and saw it get called a blocking foul on Bosh, then like me you would have to agree that there is such a thing in the NBA as star treatment. Bosh had positioned himself early and had textbook footwork on the play, and he was clearly outside of the no-charge semi-circle. No matter, the refs gave the call to the NBA's golden boy. David Stern ought to be ashamed of himself.

Who Do We Deactivate?

cuppettcj — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 18:51:32 -0000

/Ed. Note: Bumped to the front page because its an excellent question that we really haven't examined yet. In fact, the question is so good that I already pre-wrote tomorrow's Pollin' on the same subject. But because timing is everything, cuppettcj gets the front page honors. You can catch my planned post after the jump. -Jake]

Assuming complete health and no other off-season moves, the Wizards will go into the 2009-10 season with 14 players, all of which, except for Mike James, could contribute to the team if given the chance, in my opinion. But NBA rules only allow for 12 active players. Other than Mike James, who I assume we are all in agreement about, what other player should the Wizards deactivate?

For the record, my vote is for DeShawn Stevenson. Unlike CJHutch, I actually like the dude, but I just don't see him beating out Nick Young for the role of 5th guard. What do you guys think?

Last week, 80% of you said that you would take Flip Saunders over the dearly departed Eddie Jordan. So its only fitting that this week we'll focus on one of the issues that Flip will have to deal with this season.

With the signing of Fabricio Oberto, the Wizards currently have 14 players on the roster for next season, one less than they had last year when every roster spot was filled. Assuming that no other moves are made, that means 2 players will have to be on the inactive list for every game this season. Last year, the decisions about who to put on the inactive list were easy because Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood were mainstays on the list because of their injuries and normally at least one other player was too injured to suit up.

With a revamped (and hopefully healthy) roster for the upcoming season, Flip Saunders will be forced to make some hard decisions on who to sit each game if everyone stays healthy. We should have a better idea of where everyone on the roster stands after training camp and preseason, but right now, there are four players who appear to have the best shot of ending up on the inactive list to start the season.

Mike James - The return of Gilbert Arenas and the addition of Randy Foye should swallow up most of Washington's point guard minutes this season. With James entering the last year of his contract, there's no pressure on Washington to give him playing time since he probably won't be back next season. He's still got enough left in the tank to be a decent reserve guard, but on a team that's so deep at the guard position, it will be hard for him to get a chance to prove it.

DeShawn Stevenson - If Stevenson plays at the level he did last season, his inclusion on the inactive list would be an easy decision. His shooting was abysmal and his injuries limited his effectiveness as a defensive stopper. Surgery and rest could help him return to the form that we saw from 2006 to 2008 but given Washington's history of dealing with injuries, that might be an unrealistic expectation.

Fabricio Oberto - The newest Wizard should be a fine addition to the roster. But we all know that his primary role is to be a steadying option when JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche struggle. But let's say JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche both have breakout years and solidify their games to the point that they can be relied on to fill the 30 minutes per game that Antawn Jamison and Brendan Haywood can't play. If that were to happen, Oberto might just find himself as one of the odd men out of the rotation next season.

Javaris Crittenton - Critt is still young and he's got the potential to be a solild contributor for years to come. But on a team that's committed to winning now, his dazzling, but sometimes erratic play might not be what Flip Saunders is looking for. He would be the most talented player to end up on the inactive list, but especially on contending teams, stability can be more appealing than talent.

As I said at the beginning, two players will have to end up on the inactive list every game, but for this exercise, you only have to choose the player who you think is most likely to end up on the inactive list this season. Vote away!

Poll

Other than Mike James, who should the Wizards deactivate?

Javaris Crittenton

154 votes

DeShawn Stevenson

339 votes

Nick Young

3 votes

Dominic McGuire

32 votes

JaVale McGee

4 votes

Someone Else (Will Specify in Comments Below)

14 votes

Why Deactivate Mike James?! He's awesome!

33 votes

579 votes | Poll has closed

The Silver Lining of the Salary Cap Cloud

cuppettcj — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 03:12:00 -0000

The Silver Lining of the Salary Cap Cloud

This should make morethesamewiz very happy. It details all of the ways teams like the Wizards will benefit financially from the league's financial shortfalls.

ESPN's Chris Broussard explains how the salary cap and luxury tax threshold projections for 2010-11...

cuppettcj — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 01:22:26 -0000

ESPN's Chris Broussard explains how the salary cap and luxury tax threshold projections for 2010-11 will seriously dampen what was originally expected to be a very hot free agent market in the summer of 2010.

My Second Trade Idea - You All are Going to Hate This

cuppettcj — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 19:13:41 -0000

Now that I have a better understanding of what the salary situation is going to be for the 2010-11 season, I now realize that any trade Ernie does between now and this upcoming season's trade deadline will primarily be for clearing salary space for 2010-11. My first trade idea for DeSagana Diop simply will not work, unless Abe decides to go into the luxury tax again for that season, because I based that idea on the wrong assumption that the ShamSports salary total for the Wizards in 2010-11 included the qualifying offers for Randy Foye ($4,795,096) and Dominic McGuire ($1,060,120). Once I discovered that it does not, I then realized that the Wizards still lack enough salary flexibility to resign Brendan Haywood, Mike Miller or Randy Foye (one or the other, not both), and still remain under the luxury tax threshold. So if we do not do a trade similar to one of the ideas I am about to propose, we can either kiss both Mike Miller and Randy Foye goodbye after this season, or Brendan Haywood. Since I think it is important that we lock in our starters for 2010-11, I decided to see what Ernie might think of to remedy this situation.

Before I get to the details of my plan, allow me to outline why such a plan is necessary. According to ShamSports, the Wizards have $55,821,215 committed to the salaries of the following 8 players: Gilbert Arenas, Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson (assuming he exercises his player option, a pretty good bet because of his back injury), Andray Blatche, Nick Young, JaVale McGee (assuming the Wizards exercise their team option, a good bet), and Javaris Crittenton (assuming the Wizards exercise thier team option, a good bet). Once you add in Dominic McGuire's qualifying offer, which I think will be good enough for him to stay, you are sitting at $56,881,335 for the team.

Now, the luxury tax threshold is currently set at $71.15 million, but is locked to a percentage of league revenue and therefore is expected to decrease this season and perhaps even next, depending on the economy. For conservative estimation, I am assuming that the threshold will be exactly $70 million in 2010-11. If it happens to be a bit larger, than great, but if Ernie is smart, he won't count on it. So that basically means that the Wizards will only have about $13.1 million to resign Brendan Haywood and either Mike Miller or Randy Foye. Based on the salaries that I think each will command, I just don't think that is possible.

My intuition tells me that Brendan is going to want around $10 million average per season to stay with the team. Assuming a 5 year contract that escalates at 8% a year, I calculated that to be $8,522,823 in 2010-11. That takes our total team payroll to $65,404,158, leaving us only $4.6 million to resign Mike Miller or Randy Foye. Now, I expect both players to demand at least $7 million average per season on the free agent market. If any of you think it will be more or less, please tell me so and why. The exact number they get will determine our expectations for the trade that Ernie might make. But assuming that number with a 5 year contract with 8% raises, I figure we will need to pay one of those guys $5,965,976 in 2010-11 salary. That would obviously put us back into the luxury tax.

So by now you all should see why we must clear salary for 2010-11 if we plan to keep both Haywood and one of our newly acquired guards. We need to move a chunk of salary to make space for this, and the most logical players to move are either DeShawn Stevenson ($4,151,786 2010-11 salary) or Nick Young ($2,630,503 2010-11 salary). DeShawn is the one we would probably prefer to move, because he has already hit his ceiling and is dealing with a back injury that may or may not continue to bother him for the remainder of his career. Young, on the other hand, is the one who is easier to move because of his youth and potential. When trading either of those guys, we need to remember that Young is more or less an asset and DeShawn is more or less a liability.

OK, so enough prelude. Here is my plan: we start the season with what we have, plus a small potatoes big man on a small one season contract (Rasho Nesterovic, Channing Frye, whatever). We play the first half of the season with both Miller and Foye getting significant minutes at the shooting guard position. Then we decide at some point close to the trading deadline who the better player is in terms of value to our team, considering all things like chemistry with Gilbert and likelihood of further production in our system. Once we have made our decision, we do one of the following deals to receive compensation for the player we decide we can live without:

Mike James, DeShawn Stevenson, and Randy Foye to Chicago for Brad Miller

Nick Young and Mike Miller to Chicago for Brad Miller

Please check your gag reflex until the end.

Why Chicago Does Either of These Trades

Chicago is already stacked with big men, so they don't particular need Brad Miller to make their postseason push. In the first trade, Chicago can build their backcourt around Rose and Foye, making them an even more formidable threat in the playoffs. The sweetness of Foye will help them swallow the sourness of DeShawn's contract. They can immediately "Larry Hughes" Mike James.

In the second trade, they save some immediate cash and can run with Mike Miller temporarily and then turn to Nick Young to be a replacement bench scorer now that Ben Gordon is doing his thing in Milwaukee.

Why Washington Does Either of These Trades

Yes, Brad Miller is a competent center who gives us depth for our 2009-10 playoff push, but the real reason is papery and green and already spelled out above. Brad Miller's huge contract expires at the end of the season, allowing us to keep our starting lineup entact.

OK, vomit away.

Poll

How Bad Do These Trades Suck?

Both of these trades suck and there are no redeeming qualities about either of them.

24 votes

Both of these trades suck, but one sucks much more than the other. I will explain below.

13 votes

These trades suck, but I understand that one of them is necessary in order for the team to be better in the long run.

22 votes

Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having read this.

34 votes

93 votes | Poll has closed

My First Trade Idea - Foye, Stevenson, James for Diop, Bell

cuppettcj — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 15:23:24 -0000

This FanPost is my first idea on what kind of deal Ernie might have up his sleeve to account for the salary situation next season. In case you haven't read what this situation is all about, check out this post and the replies to it. In a nutshell, this trade is mostly about three things: obtaining a serviceable backup center to play behind Haywood, getting value for either Mike Miller or Randy Foye before one of them walks away in free agency, and maintaining enough salary space under the luxury tax threshold so that we can still resign Brendan Haywood in the 2010 offseason.

When looking for a big man, I had the following criteria: he should be able to play solid defense, he should be able to rebound, he should be big enough to protect the paint against some of the league's bigger centers, and he should not make more than $7 million per season because of our salary situation next offseason. One of the first names that jumped out to me that met all of this criteria was DeSagana Diop. DeSagana Diop has been known for his defensive and rebounding ability in the past. When he was 24 years old, Avery Johnson promoted him to starting center over Erik Dampier and Diop rewarded Johnson by playing superb defensive basketball in route to the Mavericks NBA Finals appearance. Since then, I'm not really sure what happened, but he apparently fell out of favor in Dallas and wound up being traded to the Bobcats only a few months after signing a five year deal for the full Mid-Level Exception.

Checking out his statistics at basketball-reference, Diop appears to be playing the same kind of basketball he always has. In 41 games for the Bobcats after the trade, he averaged 7 points, 9.6 rebounds (including 4.3 offensive rebounds), 1.2 assists, 1 steal, and 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes while only turning the ball over 1.7 times. Most of those numbers are actually better than the ones he averaged during his breakout season in 2005-06. Here is what fellow SB Nation blogger David Arnott from the Bobcats blog Rufus on Fire had to say about Diop this past April:

DIOP -- He's a lovely backup center, especially on a team where everyone else off the bench is an offense-minded player. It's not his fault, but he's the symbol of this team's profligacy, because he's getting paid many millions of dollars to be a backup.

Paying a backup center millions of dollars may not make much sense for a midling team without direction. But on a team with championship aspirations, I don't think his MLE salary is that dreadful. Assuming we resign Haywood for around $10 million per season and Mike Miller for around $7 million per season, then Diop would only be the 6th highest paid player on the team.

So here is my trade proposal: Randy Foye, DeShawn Stevenson, and Mike James to the Charlotte Bobcats for DeSagana Diop and Raja Bell. This trade will work once the trade restriction expires on Randy Foye on August 24th, according to RealGM's Trade Checker.

Why Charlotte Does This Trade

Charlotte has a two major reasons to participate in this trade. First of all, they have a chance to invest in what could be their shooting guard of the future in Randy Foye, who is still very young with a lot of potential. His contract would expire next season like Bell's, but unlike Bell the Bobcats will be able to make a qualifying offer to Foye and have the right to match any contract he gets in free agency. With DJ Augustin already locked in and ready to go, the Bobcats will be able to build around a young and talented backcourt that will help them gain respect around the league.

The second major reason the Bobcats do this trade is because they have the opportunity to rid themselves of Diop's contract, which runs through 2012-13 at a very high cost to a franchise looking to rebuild. I would personally think that for this reason alone, Michael Jordan would be willing to take on DeShawn Stevenson, despite his questionable back situation. DeShawn's contract would save the Bobcats $2.3 million in 2010-11, and would then expire, saving Charlotte close to $7 million per season for two seasons after that.

There is one more interesting tidbit about the value of this trade for Charlotte. In the comments section of the same post from Rufus on Fire above, it appears that David Arnott is a bit enamored with a certain DeShawn Stevenson. Keep in mind that these comments were made in April, after DeShawn's back injury:

Deshawn Stevenson

Please. Please tell me why in the last year I’ve been reading your articles that you have consistently favored Deshawn Stevenson so much?

...

by L'O

In short, Stevenson is younger, a lot cheaper, plays credible point guard for short stretches, has a wider variety of offensive skills, and I think he’s going into the stretch of his career where Raja was with the Suns. But, of course, the most important part of that would be cost. Even if you think Raja’s slightly better, it’s just over $5.00M vs. just under $4.00M. Every time you find equivalent (or IMO, better) talent for cheaper, and the other team will let you have it, you should do it, because it’s another step toward having the money to (re)sign a truly dominant player.

Or keeping the team in town.

by David Arnott

One wonders if Michael Jordan would agree with this.

Why Washington Does This Trade

In case my posts in the other thread didn't make this clear enough, allow me to restate the advantages. We obtain a big (7'0 300lbs), solid backup center that can easily give us 20 minutes per game of solid defense and rebounding. We get a player with loads of playoff experience, that was once the starting center on a team that played in the NBA Finals. We get a player that has experience matching up with dominant centers like Shaquille O'Neal. We get insurance in case Brendan is temporarily injured. We get the backup center we are looking for.

We also get the services of Raja Bell for one season, who is a career 41.1% three point shooter and a defensive specialist on the perimeter. He could mentor Nick Young for one season and get Nick ready for the responsibility of taking over at the backup shooting guard position in 2010-11. He could really help us in the playoffs next season, with lots of experience being there with the Suns.

In addition, we save ourselves $2.6 million dollars this season, which saves Abe $5.2 million when you factor in the luxury tax. We rid ourselves of DeShawn's contract that will help us pay for Diop's salary in 2010-11. We leave enough room under the luxury tax threshold in 2010-11 to resign Haywood at about $10 million per season. We then still have enough room under the luxury tax threshold to offer Mike Miller around $7 million per season to stay with us, assuming that the threshold is exactly $70 million. That's more than the MLE, which is hopefully all the other teams would be willing to offer him.

And lastly, it would make CJHutch very happy, because he seems to have an extreme dislike for DeShawn Stevenson.

Poll

Like This Trade Idea?

Yes, not a bad deal.

42 votes

No, are you kidding me? Try again.

42 votes

84 votes | Poll has closed

So Who Starts at Shooting Guard

cuppettcj — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 03:40:59 -0000

I've seen both NBA analysts and members here assume two different things about the roles of our two new guards. I'm curious what the overall consensus is. My assumption is that because Miller's game is such a good fit with Arenas's, that he will be the starter and that Foye will be the first man off of the bench (Sixth Man).

Yet Foye started a lot more games than Miller did last season, and is improving every year. So what say all of you guys? Maybe there is a different configuration you are thinking about? If so, please state your rationale in the comments below.

Poll

What Should Our Starting Lineup and Sixth Man Be Next Season?

C - Haywood, PF - Jamison, SF - Butler, SG - Miller, PG - Arenas, 6th Man - Foye

76 votes

C - Haywood, PF - Jamison, SF - Butler, SG - Foye, PG - Arenas, 6th Man - Miller

63 votes

None of the Above, Will Explain My Lineup and Reasoning in the Comments Below

7 votes

146 votes | Poll has closed

Gilbert Arenas: The Guy Who Signed the $111 Million Contract

cuppettcj — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 15:10:34 -0000

Gilbert Arenas: The Guy Who Signed the $111 Million Contract

An old article I stumbled across while trying to get an update on Gilbert's knee. A pretty harsh indictment leveled against Gil. The comments were just as brutal.

What I don't understand is this: if Gilbert is fully healthy, then why doesn't he play? If he's not fully healthy, then what's the problem? How can his knee still be bothering him after all this time?

Etan Thomas Due a $2 Million Kicker if Traded?

cuppettcj — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 15:15:07 -0000

According to the Chicago Sun-Times:

Contrary to reports elsewhere, the Bulls have no interest in taking back Washington center Etan Thomas in a trade for Larry Hughes. The Bulls like Thomas - just not the extra $2 million kicker to the $7 million annual salary he is due by contract if traded. Guard Mike James ($6 million per season) also was rumored to be in the Wizards' package for Hughes, who is due $13.5 million next season.

What is this "kicker" that is being referred to? This is the first time I have read about this. Can someone please explain to me what this means?

This is probably why we can't unload Etan despite his expiring contract. Ernie is starting to look a lot less smart than I previously gave him credit for.

Sure, vets like Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler and Darius Songaila seem to truly care and bring a...

cuppettcj — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 13:56:33 -0000

Sure, vets like Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler and Darius Songaila seem to truly care and bring a professional effort. while the young guys simply don't really know what is happening around them. But the overall body language and attitude stinks.

...

Put it this way: Judging from the mood in that locker room after the game last night, it was impossible to tell whether I'm covering a 41-11 team or an 11-41 team.

As one injured vet told me recently: "Losing is a habit like anything else. Once it sets in, guys can start to get used to it."

Still, the entire thing is still a little shocking. As one scout said to me last night: "I've seen this team a bunch and I know it has injuries but I just can't imagine that a team with Butler and Jamison can be this bad."

Ivan Carter Once Again Bashing the Young Players and Their Attitudes