Hi, my name is Colin Wyers and I'm a writer for The Hardball Times. I'm doing a study on the differences between ballparks and how they affect scoring decisions. To do this I need to figure out the location of the press box in each stadium. I'm having a very difficult time with this for Land Shark Stadium.

Any help you could provide would be greatly appreciated - if you just want to list off where it's at on the seating chart, that'd be great. Photos would be even better.

Thanks in advance,

--CW

Many of the old-timers around here may recognize me; my name is Colin Wyers and I've written for the Cubs blog Goatriders of the Apocalypse in the past (and I gather they've survived just fine since I've left) and I'm currently a contributor to the Hardball Times. I'm - ahem - rather stats-oriented in my work.

For the third year running, Al has asked me to contribute an article to the Cubs annual he edits. I'll confess - I'm rather blocked as to what I should be writing about this year.

So I'm curious - what would y'all like to see an article about? Post a comment and let me know. I'm not promising to use the most popular idea (I have to figure out how to fit something into my word budget, among other concerns) but I'm open to a lot of idea. Thanks in advance!

This is probably a moot point right now - seeing as Hall is no longer an outfielder - but I was doing some graphing this morning and I had a question.

Here's a graph of Bill Hall in the outfield last year:

Compared to, say, Jim Edmonds:

 

Color-coding indicates frequency of plays made at that location - blue means a lot of plays, red means fewer plays.

(If you're curious - I'm looking at Edmonds for obvious reasons; Hall had similar RZR/OOZ numbers in a similar amount of opportunities and so I thought it might be an interesting one-on-one comparison.)

The larger number of blue "clusters" in the Hall graph indicates (to me, at least) a larger number of starting positions for Hall than Edmonds. Does that match up well with your experience watching Hall last season?

Let's start a little project here. We have a few hitters (Soriano and Ramirez come to mind) that like to appreciate their work at the plate a little more than some might appreciate.

So let's start a thread here (I'll keep a link to it available as much as I can, so that it doesn't get lost - if you need a link to it later, just ask me) to keep track of just how often Cubs players sit there and admire a hit that isn't a home run. Then at the end of the season, we can take a look at how often it happens, and what the "cost" is to the team in runs/wins/etc.

I'll start us off, with an example of how to specify it:

04/11/2008 @ Philadelphia - Aramis Ramirez gazes at a fly ball in the ninth inning; ends up with a double to deep center off So Taguchi

Your participation in this project is greatly appreciated, and you have my thanks in advance. Have I missed any plays so far this season?

You were warned.

The Baltimore Sun is still talking about a Gallagher/Outfielder for Roberts trade.

We're the "most likely landing spot" for Roberts. It seems like MacPhail would like to get a deal done before spring training if a deal gets done at all.

Side note: oh for the love of God just make it stop. Thank you.

Not kidding.

Pujols had a press conference a few days ago during the Cardinals Fan Fest. Mostly it was a conversation about steroids and journalistic ethics. But then there's this:

Pujols said he decided against offseason surgery on his right elbow, a trouble spot for several years, because he would have had to miss a significant portion if not all the 2008 season. Pujols still is unable to straighten his arm, but team doctors concluded that because he plays first base, an operation can be postponed.

He said his elbow bothered him the second half of last season, and said if that happens again he wouldn't try to soldier through it.

"If the same problem is happening this year, I don't think I'm to play the whole year the same way," Pujols said. "I sacrificed my body."

That can't be entirely good news for the Cardinals.

The New York Times is reporting that the FBI looked into allegations that Canseco tried to extort Magglio Ordonez into financing a movie project in exchange for not being named in Canseco's upcoming book.

Yep. "Vindicated," all right. Canseco is pretty much setting flame to any good will he may have had after "Juiced" came out. This is what it looks like to watch a man put the last of his credibility up for wholesale.

This is a bit old (from about the 15th), but I just ran into it today and figured someone might be as interested in it as I am. An early Diamond Mind simulation of the '08 season favors the Cubs. They use Diamond Mind Baseball and the CHONE projections.

Certainly take these with a grain of salt; last season's DMB projections from SG had the Cardinals winning the division by a hair. PECOTA was the only projection system that foresaw the Cardinals having problems last season.

But we'll take what we can get for now. Some interesting data points to discuss:

1. 
   
2. The division seems to fall off after the Brewers and the Reds significantly. That seems to agree with what most of us around here see when we look around the Central. The projections seem to see Cincy having a (slighly) losing record.
   
3. Our lead over the Brewers is slight - about 3-4 games. That's why our odds of winning the division are only 47% to their 24%. (The Reds have a 19% chance, sayeth the simulation.) So even though the Cubs look like strong favorites, there's still a lot of work to be done.
   
4. Last year the Cubs scored 752 and allowed 690. The simulation sees us scoring 804 and allowing 765; essentially the Cubs' returns improving the offense are expected to do no more than offset our regression on pitching/defense.
   
5. The Astros gain a whole two wins over last season and the White Sox actually get worse. And I had it on good authority from Phil Rodgers that both teams had shown real improvement!
   

He calls it a clarification. I call it a huhwhathuh?

When I wrote about this the first time, I tried to explain that it was just one way to evaluate the ebb and flow of talent, not to judge an off-season. ... The reality is there is no true way to project performance, no matter how many incredibly smart people spend a lot of time trying. Yes, you'd rather have added Miguel Cabrera than Milton Bradley. But in baseball you can't rule out Bradley having a better year than Cabrera (raise your hand if you knew 102 players would drive in more runs than Alfonso Soriano last year, including Brandon Phillips, Bengie Molina, Mark Ellis, Jack Cust, Curtis Granderson and Mark DeRosa). By looking only at the addition and subtraction of proven players, you can get a decent reading on a team's depth.

...

This time around, it's easy to get excited about the Cubs adding Kosuke Fukudome, but it shouldn't be forgotten that they have subtracted Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd and Jason Kendall, who did make contributions in 2007.

It seems to me the plus-minus does a decent job of showing the White Sox have improved more than the Cubs, even while missing out on Torii Hunter and Miguel Cabrera (they lose only Jon Garland among their most significant players and add Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher, Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel). I'd also say it accurately suggests a long season for St. Louis, which has lost Jim Edmonds, Eckstein, Preston Wilson, Troy Percival and Kip Wells while adding no one more significant than Cesar Izturis, who wasn't a regular in 2007.

URK!

Ok, Phil, if you just want to look at team depth - why don't you, I don't know, look at team depth? Just get a depth chart out and see out deep each team is.

It's not just that the system equates Alex Rodriguez and David Eckstein equally -- although that enough makes the system close to worthless. It's that it absolutely fails to take into account any sort of marginal value, just absolute value.

The fact is that no matter what, a ballclub is going to have 25 players on its active roster. Those players are coming from somewhere. Players who are being added displace other players. Players who leave are replaced somehow.

And let me just say - losing Floyd, Jones and Kendall helps this team. We have replacements for them who are better - in the case of Kendall specifically MUCH better. And I don't think it's obvious at all that the Sox have improved more than the Cubs. Adding Dotel and Linebrink are questionable moves at best. Nobody knows if Alexei Ramirez is ready to produce at the majors. (Cuba being right around A-ball level.)

This annoys me way too mucn, and I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir right now.

Tony LaRussa seems to rapidly be losing his ability to shut his mouth, and I'm not sure that it's the best thing for clubhouse unity.

We all remember when Mad Tony ran Scott Rolen out of town on rails. Well, with Rolen gone, he's apparently had to find new targets.

Cardinals manager Tony La Russa is annoyed that second baseman Adam Kennedy skipped the team's annual Winter Warmup fan fest.

"I'm disappointed he's not here," La Russa said. "This is a statement we make to our fans: 'Thanks for coming out,' and he's not here."

La Russa said Kennedy owed it to the team, especially after the manager stuck with Kennedy for so long despite his struggles on offense.

To be quite frank, I'm not sure I'd show up to a fan event after a season where I'd slugged .290 either. (That's right - that's his slugging percentage.)

But LaRussa doesn't stop there!

"In the first three months of the season, his playing time was extensive when he really wasn't productive," La Russa said. "I really gave him the benefit of the doubt a lot, to the detriment of a guy like Aaron Miles."

La Russa said even if Miles had a big day in a spot start, he'd go right back to Kennedy. The manager said that won't be the case this year.

That ignores the fact that Miles hits like Theriot and fields about like Todd Walker. (A younger Todd Walker, to be fair.)

And LaRussa apparently has some harsh words for the Imperial too:

La Russa was also unhappy with utilityman Scott Spiezio, who showed up late for his autograph signing session on Monday.

"That's one dot off his resume," La Russa said. "I don't care what the excuse was, that's not a good way to get started."

You know what's also a dot off your resume, Tony? Drunk driving. Funny how nobody decided to hold your feet to the fire on that one.

It's like having front-row seats to a full-dress performance of Mozart's famous operetta "How To Lose Your Clubhouse" with an all-star cast. Wow.

As an instructor.

Yeah, I know that when your big offseason acquisition is at the center of a media firestorm involving congressional testimony and illegal drug use, reminding people of the other people involved in that scandal you have past ties with is just good PR.

I have to say that that Astros are quickly becoming the most mystifying franchise in baseball. On one hand, they seem to be mortgaging the future for today, without somehow coming up with a today that favors them placing higher than fourth in the weakest division in baseball. On the other hand, they seem to be almost setting themselves up as a lightning rod of criticism for steroid usage that occurred on other teams. Just an amazing train wreck all the way down.

I'm doing this early because I have enough things to write about and I have a LOT of spare time at work right this moment. I'll probably update after some more Convention stuff comes out as the papers hit deadline.

Update [2008-1-19 1:19:24 by cwyers]:Gordon Wittenmeyer says Peter Angelos shot down a 7-for-2 swap. Bedard and Roberts would have been our two. Orioles sources deny this; although they confirm that Hill was made available in a Bedard/Roberts deal. Baltimore apparently likes Seattle's prospects better.

The Rangers and Cubs are discussing a Murton for Byrd swap; talks are still tentative at this point, so I wouldn't overreact to the news. Lou is quoted as saying: "I don't think we'll do anything, honestly, but if we do, it will be in the outfield." So he apparently doesn't think the Cubs are getting Roberts. Update [2008-1-19 1:9:51 by cwyers]:Expect DeRosa to be our second baseman. I know this will disappoint some, but I'm comfortable with it.

Soriano and Lou defend Soriano's leading off. Don't see that changing. Rodgers also says that Dempster hasn't been promised a rotation spot, and Dempster himself says "It's not easy. Not a lot of guys do it." He adds that he's improved his conditioning this offseason.

Muskat, on the other hand, says "there's no turning back for Dempster." I guess she means this metaphorically... or actually, I guess she doesn't mean it at all, because she says "Dempster now joins Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, Rich Hill, Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher and Jon Lieber in the fight for the five rotation spots." Notice how there haven't been any articles this offseason that say "Zambrano is expected to compete with six other pitchers for the five openings in the rotation." No word on what will happen if he can't win a spot - Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry are supposed to be the candidates to close. Update [2008-1-19 1:9:51 by cwyers]:Howry, for one, would like to remind people that he's the experienced candidate. Campaign season has begun!

Muskat's Cubs Notes are full of gems.Zambrano says he's going to make Lilly pitch opening day. Perry says that Pie showed real progress in winter ball. Piniella says Neal Cotts is getting a shot at a bullpen job again. Gallagher is using Kerry Wood's diet service and has dropped 25 pounds.

Remember Omar Infante? Broke his hand during winter ball. I don't know if I'd say he was ever really a Cub, but it may be of some interest, so I pass it along.

I just have to add... this is great fun, reading through all of this. I feel real excited about all of it.

Well, with the baseball season approaching - less than a month until pitchers and catchers report - the engines of the writers are starting to warm up again. Nothing too exciting, yet. But some interesting notes.

Jeff Samardzija plans on reporting to camp Jan. 24th - about a week from now, and three weeks early. He started his training program in November, apparently.

Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild is realistic about Samardzija's chances of making a quantum leap to the big club after only one full year in the minors.

"Right now it would be a push. But I would love to see him compete and have us start thinking that maybe he can do it," Rothschild said. "There is a learning curve and he is still in the middle of it. But all the pieces are there: the ability, the makeup, the competitiveness, so it's just a matter of time.

"If that time is now, that would be great. If it's not, that's OK."

...

Samardzija has added a split-finger pitch to his repertoire.

"I didn't really throw a splitter last year, which I do have," he said. "My changeup is coming along. It's nice to have this extra two or three months to work on your changeup and slider."

Do I think anything will come of it? Quite frankly, not a whole lot. But it's nice to see that sort of dedication, at least.

Lou doesn't much care about the 100 years thing. Chris DeLuca also says that the Cubs could move Fukudome into center if Pie strugles; presumably Murton or (shudder) Ward would move to right field. He doesn't give any indication if this is something he heard or speculation on his part. [If you were wondering - Murton/Ward? Entirely speculation on my part.]

Less speculative - Lou says Fukudome could hit second or fifth. Oh, and this will suprise you - Mark DeRosa isn't 100% thrilled by the efforts to replace him.

The Lieber says he finished his rehab in October, and is fully functional. Here's hoping.

[editor's note, by Al] I haven't done this in a while, but cwyers' diary was, well, pretty much what I was going to do this morning -- a headline post, with pretty much the same headlines I was going to post. So, I'm moving it to the front page. There's only one other news item I wanted to call people's attention to:

A 36-year-old Pardeeville man accusing of tying up his 7-year-old son with tape Saturday after the boy refused to wear a Green Bay Packers sweatshirt during the divisional playoff game against Seattle said the incident was a joke that "got blown way out of proportion." Matthew Kowald was arrested Monday on tentative felony charges of causing mental harm to a child and false imprisonment, but was issued only a disorderly conduct citation for the incident. What is with those Packers fans?

Okay, so they only announced the price hike. The utter contempt is strongly implied, though.

Individual game ticket prices are increasing by anywhere from a buck to a fiver. Parking is increasing by 10 to 15 bucks. The odds of Jefrey Loria being mistaken for a decent human being just went down 0.0987% (which is about all that was left, really).

My Baseball Prospectus subscription didn't get renewed for Christmas, so I can't read the whole thing.

But I can look at the list at the top:

Five-Star Prospects

1. Geovany Soto, C
   
2. Josh Vitters, 3B
   

Four-Star Prospects
None
Three-Star Prospects

3. Donald Veal, LHP
   
4. Jose Ceda, RHP
   
5. Josh Donaldson, C
   
6. Sean Gallagher, RHP
   
7. Tyler Colvin, OF
   
8. Eric Patterson, 2B/OF
   
9. Welington Castillo, C
   
10. Tony Thomas, 2B
    

Two-Star Prospects
11. Jeff Samardzija, RHP

...not exceedingly promising.

This according to people at NSBB. and Orioles Hangout. Words like "0% chance" are being used. Would be nice to see someone other than just Levine corroborate this before we entirely put the Roberts talk to bed, but this at least cools things off a bit.

Other rumors: the Cubs are still interested in signing John Lieber. And they may be trying to pry Marlon Byrd from the Rangers as a backup/platoon CF.

Okay, folks, let's clear the boards here, take a deep breath, relax, and look at this from a slightly different perspective.

Let's start this off with linear weights. I like linear weights. I like them a lot. So when I refer to runs throughout this piece, know that I figured out these runs using linear weights -- specifically Batting Runs. A full examination of the process involved can be found here. To convert runs to wins, divide by 11 (it's a rough estimate, but it works for this estimate so long as I stay consistant.)

I need to clarify here - Batting Runs are baselined, so that negative Batting Runs are possible. Taylor Green of the Milwaukee Brewers, hitting .249/.311/.376 according to his 2008 CHONE projections, is our 0 offense player. Looking at the lineup simulator, a hypothetical 0 offense team - 9 Taylor Greens - scores 3.9 runs a game.

I cannot find the results of the last major discussion we had on this topic where we ran all kinds of lineup simulatons; if anyone can find it I would be grateful. But sumarizing briefly, using the assumptions of the lineup simulator, we got something between 1-4 marginal wins by shifting Soriano around in the lineup. Of course, we ended up batting the pitcher eighth LaRussa style, using Fukudome or Lee as our leadoff hitter, and batting either DeRosa or Soto in the three hole, so it's not like these were likely lineups.

Okay, but here's the dirty little secret that the lineup estimator is keeping from you: the number of plate appearances by lineup position.

1. 
   
2. 765
   
3. 745
   
4. 729
   
5. 709
   
6. 695
   
7. 682
   
8. 668
   
9. 648
   
10. 627
    

Those figures are for the 2007 Cubs; your milage may vary.

Using Batting Runs (and the CHONE projections), it looks like Soriano produces 0.061 runs per plate appearance. Batting leadoff, that's roughly 47 batting runs, or 4.27 wins. Drop him down to sixth; 42 runs, or down to 3.8 wins. Then let's sub in Brian Roberts; he produces 0.044 runs per at-bat, or 34 runs as a leadoff hitter. That's 3 wins. Drop him to sixth and he produces 30 runs or 2.75 wins.

So: Soriano 1st + Roberts 6th: 80.84 runs, 7.34 wins.
Soriano 6th + Roberts 1st: 72.07 runs, 6.55 wins.

I didn't bother calculating out Soriano's lower Batting Runs for his lower career splits batting out of the leadoff spot. So reevaluate accordingly, if that matters to you.

There are hitters better than Soriano; we even have a few of them on the team. But they won't be batting leadoff, sadly. And Soriano is a better hitter than Brian Roberts. A much better hitter. And if you want to win ballgames, you need to give more at-bats to your best hitters. And that's what you miss out on if you simply look at the lineup as a per-game construct, rather than how it plays out on a full season.

The problem is that there's way too much of an emotional attatchment to the "Traditional Leadoff Hitter." Of course, the Traditional Leadoff Hitter is an artifact of a time period when run socring was a lot lower, and so a stolen base was a much more valuable play than it is today. And then we have the people worrying about RBIs, as though the "right" people getting credit for driving runs in was more important than putting actual runs on the board.

Everybody, learn to quit worrying and love the swinging strike. It's for your own good.

So, it's finally been announced what we got in return for the Cesar Izturis trade: "an undisclosed amount of cash."

Oh, and the peace and security that only getting rid of the Wizard of Iz can provide.

Seriously, though: the Pirates didn't have a warm body somewhere in the minors they were going to send us? At all? Well that's kind of a letdown, isn't it? I mean, I understand that all the Pirates got was Cesar the Wonder Out. But was Benjamin Franklin on the disabled list? Did the Pirates have to collect pop cans around Pittsburgh and drag them all to the nearest Giant Eagle to get enough money to send to the Cubs?

...yeah, now that I think about the can thing, that's probably not too far from the truth.

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel is reporting the Brewers could be close to signing free agent center fielder Mike Cameron.

Cameron hit .242/.328/.431 for the stinkin' Fathers last season in spacious Petco, good for a 104 OPS+. CHONE projects him to hit .246/.331/.435 next year in a neutral context. He's also suspended for 25 days for using stimulants. Cameron is a Type B free agent, so the Brewers wouldn't lose a draft pick.

If the Brewers do this, they have two choices of what to do with Bill Hall:

Trade him for whatever.

Move him back to the infield and move Ryan Braun out to left.

This could provide a real boost to the Brewers' anemic infield defense. Nothing's final, though.

It's everything you could have wished for, and then some!

First, I'll let Phil explain the reasoning behind his new metric. Take it away!

For the purpose of identifying the most on-the-surface improvement around the major leagues, consider the core players--hitters projected to be regulars and pitchers who either start or work the last two innings of games--who have come and gone.

In this simple accounting, the Sox rate a plus-two, having added Swisher, Orlando Cabrera and Scott Linebrink while losing only Jon Garland. That puts them alongside Detroit (plus-three), Tampa Bay (plus-two), Toronto (plus-one) and Houston (plus-one) as the most improved teams in the majors.

The Cubs excited their fans with the signing of Kosuke Fukudome, but that addition is offset by the departures of Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd and Jason Kendall. That leaves the Cubs at minus-two at present. The only teams that have lost more are Oakland (minus-four) and St. Louis (minus-five).

Allow me to break this down Tinker Toy style, just in case anyone missed the point of Rogers' column.

If you assume that all "core" major league players (I'm guessing this is defined as "players Phil Rogers recognizes when he sees their name in the transactions list) bring the exact same amount of value to their new ballclubs, then clearly the White Sox are having the second-best offseason, while the Cubs are the third-worst.

That's if you have absolutely no way to differentiate the talent and impact of ballplayers other than whether or not Phil Rogers recognizes their names. Apparently losing Jason Kendall is proportiately opposite to signing Scott Linebrink.

To quote the great Raymond Chandler, "People pay brisk money for this crap?"

Just what the Astros needed - a punter.

It's a $1-million plus incentives contract to be a fourth outfielder and provide gritty, veteran leadership to all the kids the Astros traded away to Baltimore and Arizona.

Well, I guess he can at least platoon with Michael Bourn out in center. Except they're both left handed. And even if Bourn flames out and produces like his craptastic .277/.348/.378 line from last season, that's STILL better than the last two seasons of Darrin Erstad. So he can't be considered a "backup plan" or whatever.

I guess you could use him as a defensive replacement for Carlos Lee, but I'm pretty sure you could use Brad Ausmus as a defensive replacement for Carlos Lee, even if you let Ausmus keep squatting so that he doesn't leave his comfort zone. Erstad hasn't even outhit Ausmus the last two seasons.

I understand that it's hard to kill the team as a fourth outfielder making a million for one season, and that this isn't the end of the world. And he comes with a built-in safety valve: if for some reason you're not smart enough to keep him out of the lineup, his frail, frail knees will do it for you. But it pretty well tells the story of the Astros' offseason -- lurching around, throwing resources at whatever flotsam comes to hand without a clear notion of what you're doing.

I mean, seriously. They didn't have anyone at Round Rock that could give you Erstad's production? I'm sure Tim Raines wouldn't have turned down a second chance at the majors.

A first pass on my 2007 arm ratings for outfielders is now available.

That's a full listing of kills, holds and advances for all outfielders with at least one opportunity last season. I'd like to think that I'm following a simplified version of John Walsh's outfield ratings. I didn't capture events as distinctly as he did, and so my ratings should probably be taken with more than a few grains of salt.

Arm+ is a horrible junk stat. I am aware of just how awful it is. I was looking for a quick-and-dirty way to sort the list so that I could do a quick smell test and see how it was performing. The fact that Juan Pierre has one of the worst arm ratings -- even considering he's only compared to other center fielders -- gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling about the whole enterprise.

I'm looking for comments here (and from a few stats-oriented baseball sites I frequent) so that I can try and make some revisions to the system and have a better set of ratings out soon.