Top 10 pick "bust rate": QB vs. Tackle

cyberwulf — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 16:32:32 -0000

Given the vigorous debate about this post, I went to NFL.com's Draft History site and pulled the list of QBs and Tackles who were selected in the Top 10 picks over the past 10 years. Here's what I found:

QBs

Ryan, Russell, V. Young, Alex Smith, Manning, Rivers, Palmer, Leftwich, Carr, Harrington, Vick, Couch, McNabb, Akili Smith, Manning, Leaf

Out of the QBs, how many can you qualify as busts? Clearly Akili Smith, Leaf, Couch, Carr. Arguably Harrington, Alex Smith. Jury's still out on Young, Russell, but not looking so good. Jury's in on Vick. Overall, out of 16 QBs drafted in the Top 10 (most in the Top 5, actually), somewhere between 4 and 8 qualify as busts, for a "bust rate" of 25-50%.

Tackles

Long, Thomas, Brown, Ferguson, Gallery, Gross, Williams, McKinnie, L. Jones, Samuels (1997: Pace and W. Jones)

Some of these guys aren't household names, so I looked at games started. Mike Williams (#4, 2002) started all games for the Bills for three years, then dropped off the face of the earth. Probably a bust. Robert Gallery? Well, he *has* started all but one game for the Raiders since he was drafted, but it *is* the Raiders. Maybe a bust. Jury's still out on Long, maybe Brown. So, out of 10 tackles drafted in the Top 10, we have one probable bust, with perhaps one or two other possibles. The "bust rate" 10-30% (or about 7-25% if you add in '97)

It might be interesting to look at this for other positions as well; but this preliminary analysis seems to suggest that Top-10 tackles have a higher chance of being regular contributors than Top-10 QBs.

First FanPost; I'd be interested in hearing people's thoughts.

SB Nation User Blog: cyberwulf

Top 10 pick "bust rate": QB vs. Tackle