Imagining #20 on your team? So are fans of every other team...

There's been a lot of talk on this blog recently about the Wild going after Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. I've already had my say about where I think Parise will go, so I figured I would chip in my thoughts about Ryan Suter. Ladies and Gentlemen, I present John Nash (as played by Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind):

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Since watching the Wild has been boring and depressing recently, I would like to think about something else. How about Zach Parise? I know the Hockey Wilderness team did a post recently about the Wild's chances to sign Parise or Suter during the offseason (link here), but I wanted to expand the post to look at which other teams Parise might sign with.

Now I know that the only person who knows where Parise will sign next year is Zach himself. But that won't stop me from speculating! So while I am avoiding work, I thought it would be fun to give each team that might sign Parise a percent chance of signing him. By the way, if you have any ideas to improve this post, lemme know and I'll edit it!

To do this, I started by taking a look at each team's cap space this year on Capgeek. I eliminated any team which is currently close to the salary cap, thinking that even if they have a lot of contracts off the books next year, they will be focused on re-signing their own talent. So Philly, Calgary, Vancouver, Washington, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, Boston, Montreal and Toronto are out of the running. Then I did the opposite and looked at teams that are currently close to the cap floor right now (figuring they also don't have the cash for a big contract). This eliminated Colorado, New York Islanders, Dallas, Carolina, Nashville, Ottawa, Winnipeg, St. Louis, and Phoenix (duh!).

Then I went through the list of team's left, and gave each team a rating out of 10 in the following categories: the team's financial Ability to pay Parise's salary, the attractiveness of the city / climate, how much the Team needs Parise and how well he would fit in their roster, and how good the team is. Let's get to the results!

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I've never played fantasy hockey before, but for some reason would like to start up a team this year.  I know there have been Pensburgh leagues before - does anyone know if there's one going on for this season?  If not, I'd be up to start one.  What kinda of a league would you guys/gals be interested in?  Let me know in the comments - I was thinking of starting a Yahoo! league.

For the sake of discussion, let's have a debate.  No matter what happens, you would never want a player of Malkin's caliber to get injured or leave your team.  That said, GM Ray Shero, in whom we trust, has done a heckuva job (As Bush would say) replacing his goal-scoring prowess by bringing back Alex Kovalev and James Neal.

I don't know how to do the cool thing where it shows a picture of everyone and their stat line, so let's take a quick look at all three players' stats for the year:

Kovalev: 56GP 15G 13A 4.1 GVT

Neal: 62GP 21G 18A 8.0 GVT

Malkin: 43GP 15G 22A 4.7 GVT

If you just look at their production, it seems like we've actually upgraded our forwards, which could be possible considering we definitely downgraded our D a little when we traded Goligoski.  But let's dig deeper.  While Kovalev is clearly an elite talent, at 38 he doesn't have the speed he once did, and is prone to making turnovers.  Neal's numbers may be slightly inflated because of playing with Richards on the Stars (though this may not be a big deal b/c he's bound to play with good talent on the Pens too).  In addition, Malkin was clearly having an off year, and in the past has performed much better.

In any case, I think it's interesting to pose the question:

I think that when Fleury is at his best, he is a solid goaltender.  However, the past two years I have been really frustrated with him, so I think the Pens should make him earn his spot back from Johnson.  So far this season, Marc-Andre Fleury is 0-3-0, 3.41 GAA, with a horrendous .853 SV%, while Brent Johnson is 2-0-0, 1.48 GAA,  and .945 SV%.  Obviously this is a small sample size, and Fleury is likely to improve his save percentage, while Johnson probably can't keep his that high.  But it's undeniable that Johnson is playing better hockey right now.  And isn't that what it's all about?

The Pens' recent signing of Asham has got me thinking.  Though the Pens have a shortage of top-6 guys, they have quite a few good grinders.  I think the Pens will end up with a fourth line something like Rupp-Adams-Asham.  This line is pretty solid on its own, with everyone playing physically, but what really interests me is what will happen if/when the Pens throw Sid or Geno out on this line? 

With Rupp-Crosby-Asham on the ice, the Pens have one superstar, and two grinders with decent hands.  They could roll from the Staalkin line to that, and the other team would be forced to use their better defensemen against Geno.  Maybe this will make up for having Dupuis/Talbot type guys in the top 2 lines.

In light of the other day's post about 2v2 overtime, I thought I would make a post about rules changes that are a little less fantastic.

Proposal 1: No points for an overtime/shootout loss.  I think the original intent of awarding a point for an overtime loss was to try and stop teams from trapping each other into oblivion in the 5 min. overtime period.  With the advent of 4v4 OT, this is no longer a problem, as you can't really run a trap in 4v4.  Plus with a shootout after OT, one team HAS to win, so both teams cannot simply defend and settle for a draw.  Not awarding a point for OT/shootout losses would make overtime and shootouts more exciting; victories would be that much more euphoric and defeat even more agonizing.

Proposals 2 and 3 are my favorites that the NHL is considering according to this Puck Daddy article.

Proposal 2: No-touch icing.  Already adopted at other levels such as college hockey, this rule change would decrease the risk of injuries on races for the puck.

Proposal 3: Icing would be called on the penalty kill.  According to Puck Daddy:

This would be great because guys that are already really, really gassed from being out there for 55 seconds of a Stamkos-Gagne-Vinny-Marty-Hedman shooting gallery would have to clear the zone by lugging the puck out or softly lobbing it to the center. Teams would get up to like 35 percent on the man advantage. Who wouldn't love that?

Having more efficient power plays would mean fewer penalties would be taken, which I think would encourage good skating teams like the Caps/Pens and make for more exciting hockey.  Plus each powerplay would be more exciting b/c there would be fewer of them, and a penalty kill would be an even bigger momentum swing.

Which of these rules changes would you most like to see next year?  If you have another favorite, write it in the comments and maybe I'll add it to the poll!

via viewfrommyseats.com
Us fans at Pensburgh and the Post Gazette have all been talking about Jordan Staal moving to Line Two with Evgeni Malkin to form a "Staalkin" line.  There seems to be two camps of the conversation, the pro-Staalkin and the anti-Staalkin line.  The pro-Staalkin group is arguing that Staal is too good for the third line, the Pens can't afford another Top 6 winger, and Malkin needs some help with his linemates.  The anti-Staalkin group is arguing that moving Staal or Malkin to wing would take away our strength down the middle, and we would lose the mismatches that having Staal on the third line creates.

Here is one thing that I think is being lost in this debate: What does Staal want?  Think about it.  If you were him,would you want to play on the third line for your whole career, or light up the lamp with one of this generation's best players in Evgeni Malkin?

via christophergates.files.wordpress.com

If we don't make Staal our second line center, he will leave the Penguins when his contract is up, and some other team will snatch him up.  Malkin needs a spark to help him rebound from his bad year, Staal needs some more talent around him, and the third line will manage. (at least it will still have Matt Cooke!)  Staal also put up tremendous numbers (29 G, 13 A) in his ROOKIE year playing with Geno.  What's to lose?  Oh, and if you google Jordan Staal, the first hit is pictures of him, but if you google Crosby you have to scroll down to see the pictures.   Just sayin............

I've been thinking a lot about who the Pens may sign this off-season, and got inspired to do some statistics today. 

 I figure the best (or at least easiest) measure of the overall value of a player is GVT, or goals versus threshold.  I don't know exactly how this is computed, but I know it similar to baseball's VORP (Value Over Replacement Player).  Tom Award defines GVT as: " the value of a player, in goals, above what a replacement player would have contributed."  But comparing players' value is not enough.  In today's salary cap NHL, all teams must look carefully at what they can afford to pay their players, and search for the best value possible.

Since the Penguins will likely be in the market for a winger, I took a list of all winger free agents and their 2009-2010 salaries from here.  Then I got these players' GVT data from behindthenet.ca here.  To calculate the different wingers' value per salary dollar, I divided their GVT by their salary, and then multiplied by a million to make the numbers comparable.  I then filtered the data to include only players with 2009-2010 salaries of between 1 and 2.5 million, figuring the Pens can't find a scoring winger for less than 1 million, and they can't afford to pay more than 2.5.  Without further ado, here are the top ten results, their salary, GVT, and GVT/Salary:

Well, we have some familiar names on here, and some not so familiar names.  Selanne is  one name I've definitely heard tossed around recently, and this seems to confirm that the Pens should go after him.  (Though he did only play for half of last season...)  Our own Bill Guerin and even Fedotenko make the list.

I know this list has some problems, like maybe some guys are due for a raise, or some are overpaid.  Also some may retire (Tkachuk, Selanne, and Guerin...).  But I think it's a good starting point to look at guys we should be interested in, and could realistically afford.  Who would you like to see the Pens sign?

via www.thehockeynews.com

I've seen a lot of recent comments projecting possible lines for next year.  Many of them include Tangradi in a Top 6 Winger role.  While he undoubtedly has the potential to do so, I wonder if starting Tangradi in the NHL might be rushing his development.

Here is Hockey'sfuture.com's writeup: (taken from their Pens AHL/ECHL prospect review)

Although he started his rookie professional season slowly, dislocating his shoulder in only his third game and missing a month of play, Tangradi has emerged as the Penguins prospect with the greatest NHL potential. He started out the season on a checking line with Joe Vitale and Tim Wallace. This allowed the 6’4 225-pound winger to develop his physical game and assimilate to the professional style of play without the added pressure of being depended on for offense. As his game matured and he learned to use his large frame to his advantage, the points started coming with regularity. By the beginning of January, Tangradi was one of the Penguins key contributors and started seeing regular time as a top-six forward and on the power play. Tangradi would finish out the AHL regular season with 17 goals, including eight on the man-advantage, and 22 assists through 65 games. In his team’s four playoff appearances, Tangradi registered one goal and assist and a plus-two rating.

Tangradi has clearly come a ways already, moving up from checking line to top-six forward on the baby pens, but  he only finished 8th in points and 6th in goals on the team.  It'd be quite a jump for him to suddenly start playing with Crosby every shift. 

The Pens could definitely use a gritty, skilled, cheap (salary, not playing style!) forward to play on their top lines, and Eric Tangradi could provide some of that.  But I don't want to rush him, and ruin his potential, either.

But enough about me, what do YOU think?

Well, I am bored and have nothing to do right now, so I want to speculate on lines.  Does anyone know for sure what the line combos are gonna be?  Seems to me that Dupuis deserves to get bumped up to line 1 or 2, and Feds should get bumped down.  Here's my best guess:

Guerin-Crosby-Kunitz

Ponikarovski-Malkin-Dupuis

Kennedy-Staal-Cooke

Adams-Talbot-Fedotenko

Rupp scratched again?  I would rather scratch Feds myself, but Bylsma seems to like Fedotenko.  Maybe he'll scratch Talbot and bump up Rupp?

I think there have been enough comments in game threads, recaps, etc. for this to justify its own post.

Let's not beat around the bush: Ruslan Fedotenko, while a solid player, has been holding the second line back.  His stat line for the year, playing mostly with Malkin (one of the top 3 players in the NHL) is 10 goals, 18 assists, and +/- of -18.  18 assists is not too bad, but 10 goals?  It would be understandable if AO's linemates scored only 10 goals, because AO likes to shoot and score himself, but Geno likes to set up his linemates.  Also, his +/- is -18?!?! How does this happen?  'Tenks is not pulling his weight.

Now, I know that stats alone don't tell the whole story.  For example, Chris Kunitz has a similar stat line to Fedotenko with 11G and 18A.  But I don't have a problem with Kunitz playing alongside Sid because he does all the little things that don't show up in the stat line.  Remember Kunitz's hit on the Philly D in game one of the series?  Hits like that change games.  Kunitz battles hard and hits hard.  When was the last time you saw Fedotenko have a game-changing hit?

Here's what I think the Pens should do: Bump Feds down to line 3 or 4.  Then bring up either Staal or Rupp to play wing with Malkin.  What do you guys think?

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