The next time some Philly Phan whines about injuries, I'm going to laugh in his/her phace.

With Ramos going down, the Nationals injury list is pretty impressive (Ramos, Morse, Werth, CMW, Storen, Lidge, Kimball, Marrero, DeRosa), and the one player about ready to come back (CMW) is the one player they really don't need. And the Nationals are coming up on the meatgrinder portion of their schedule. After the four games against the Padres and Pirates this week, the Nats are scheduled to play 33 games in 38 days, all against the NL East and AL East. Of those 33 games, six will be played against teams that are currently under .500. And those six games are three at Philadelphia and three at Boston - games that don't exactly scream "breather." Werth isn't due back until probably August, and Ramos will likely next show up in Viera next March. It seems from what I've read that Morse is hoping to be able to play DH in the interleague games in June (from June 8-24, nine of the Nats' 15 games will be in AL parks).

I'm not advocating panic ("When in Danger, When in Doubt: Run in Circles, Scream and Shout!") - as long as the starting pitching holds up (*knock on the Jinx FAQ*) the Nationals will be competitive in every series. But as fans we have to brace ourselves. As long as the team comes out of this stretch still over .500, I think they will be quite competitive the rest of the way. So even if the record ends up being battered over the next few weeks, let's not give up on the season. Even after the All Star Break, there's a lot of baseball that will have to be played before the Nationals get to Meaningful Games in September(tm). So - how many games do YOU think the Nationals will win during this stretch?

Fresh off our look last week at the coaches at the Washington Nationals' AAA team in Syracuse, we now turn our attention to the coaches for the Harrisburg Senators, the Nationals' AA team. This is an entirely new coaching staff in Harrisburg, as last year's manager (Tony Beasley) and hitting coach (Troy Gingrich) were promoted from Harrisburg to Syracuse. Harrisburg's former pitching coach, Randy Tomlin, was apparently offered a position with the organization but turned it down due to personal reasons. According to a published report, Tomlin is coaching a High School baseball team in Roanoke Virginia while attending to family matters related to the recent death of his father-in-law. According to Byron Kerr, don't be surprised if Tomlin resurfaces in the organization soon. Tomlin helped develop prospects like Tommy Milone, Brad Peacock and others, and (according to Kerr) there is a lot of mutual respect between him and the organization.

Continue reading this post »

Bryce Harper isn't in the minor leagues any more, but there are plenty more reinforcements behind him. With this installment of our occasional series looking at the Washington Nationals minor league system, I thought it would help to begin to get to know the various coaches at the minor league levels of the Washington Nationals. Who do the Nationals have out in the fields, preparing The Next Generation for their time in The Show? Today we look at the AAA Coaching Staff.

Syracuse Chiefs

Tony Beasley, Manager. Nationals fans with good memories may recall that Beasley served as Manager Frank Robinson's Third Base Coach in 2006 here in DC. He served in the same capacity for two seasons in Pittsburgh in 2008-9, once being called upon to sing the National Anthem prior to a game with the Rockies. In addition to his singing talents Beasley has a pretty impressive record as a coach and minor league manager. As a player he put in nine minor league seasons, topping out in AAA. As a 19th round draft pick with the Orioles who was listed at 5'8" and 165 pounds, he seems to have been the poster child for scrappy middle infielder and organizational depth. He did make the Carolina League All-Star team in 1990 and 1991, and after being traded to the Pirates organization for the 1992 season made the Southern League (AA) team All-Star team in 1996. He finished with a .260/.322/.354 BA/OBP/SLG. Although he only had 22 career home runs in his nine seasons, he did have 138 stolen bases (against 59 CS). He transitioned to coaching as a player/coach in 1998 and then started climbing the coaching ladder, going all the way down to the Gulf Coast League as a hitting coach in 1999.

Continue reading this post »

Greetings! Most of you know me already - I’ve been a member of Federal Baseball since 2009, and thoroughly enjoy learning about baseball and experiencing the Nationals with my fellow fans at FB. One of the things that really helped me, as a fan, was Souldrummer’s postings about the Nationals’ minor league players. The fact that the Nationals had just drafted some phenom pitcher from San Diego State might have helped as well – I joined FB the same week that Strasburg signed his rookie contract. Since that time I’ve become a lot more interested in how players develop into major leaguers. So when Patrick contacted Jeff550 and me about providing some minor league coverage I was definitely interested. So we present to you: WN:TNG, the first of a series of posts providing you with a window into a part of the organization that takes place beyond South Capitol Street. Patrick generally mentions the day-to-day game results as part of the daily Wire Taps. We will be looking to go beyond that. It's my hope that, like Souldrummer did for me, Jeff and I can open a door to another level of baseball appreciation for some of you.

Continue reading this post »

As the baseball season has gotten underway, with the assistance of increased attention on the Washington Nationals, we've had a number of newcomers to our posting threads. This is GREAT! Welcome aboard, there's still plenty of room on the bandwagon. As a public service, I thought I would put up a fanpost explaining some of odder phrases and traditions. If you have a question, please feel free to ask in the comments; and of course seasoned vets of the page can add to the list. So without further ado (and in no particular order):

Peaches: Tyler Clippard's nickname. For his first couple of seasons with the Nationals, Tyler's entrance music was the song Peaches by the Presidents of the United States. Despite the fact that he switched his intro music last year, it's still not uncommon for game threads to riff on the lyrics of this song when Peaches comes into the game.

Goggles: Another nickname for Tyler Clippard. Anyone watching him play baseball knows this one, as his goggles are pretty spiffy.

PFB: "Pretty Frickin' Bueno": Nationals Pitching Coach Steve McCatty used this phrase to describe "Bullpen B" closer Henry Rodriguez's stuff. When HRod is on, he's virtually unhittable. When he's off, mascots better watch their step ...

IMH: "Is My Hero," typically used when one of the Nationals does something great. "IDIMH" = "Ian Desmond Is My Hero." Etc.

FOTF: "Face of the Franchise" - this could only be Ryan Zimmerman.

Cyborg: an occasional nickname for the Nationals' top prospect, Bryce Harper.

Shark: Roger Bernadina. How the outfielder from Curacao got this nickname is kind of a long story. Fortunately, someone else has already written it up. When the Shark catches a fly ball, he goes CHOMP!

The Blue Guy: This is from a blue icon of the cookie monster stuffing baseballs into his mouth that someone (I think MissB, but don't quote me on that) developed to show the tragedy and pathos appropriate to an occasion when a National hits into a double play. We do not like The Blue Guy. He is evil. And greedy.

The Red Guy: The Blue Guy's cousin, a red icon of the cookie monster stuffing baseballs into his mouth developed to show the joy and happiness appropriate to the occasion when the Nationals turn a double play. We like The Red Guy. He is stylish, and always a pleasant visitor. Sometimes also referred to as "monster" (in today's game thread a poster said "here monster monster monster" in a situation where a double play would be very helpful).

Offenza: A mythical product that we wish the Nationals could get for their hitters. Offenza is a well-known cure for anything that ails a baseball team's offense.

SPAD: Refers to "Speed, Pitching And Defense," a phrase that Nationals' GM Mike Rizzo used before the 2011 season to describe the Nationals' philosophy (and also to explain some of the roster turnover that took place that year.

+10 points!: This is what is awarded to someone who inadvertently makes a double post in a comment thread (usually with the "assistance" of a smartphone). No actual points are awarded, purely intended as good natured mockery.

PBP: Play By Play, done on a game thread, for the benefit of those who can't watch or listen through normal means. It's nice to trade of PBP duties, as it requires a lot of fast typing.

Clip & Store: Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen, the dynamic duo of the Nationals' bullpen squad. Excellent individually, together they are pretty frickin' bueno.

WereWerth: Jason Werth. Occasionally goes into "Wolf mode." We wouldn't mind seeing a lot more of this, to tell the truth.

Mongoose: Ian Desmond. Honestly, I'm not sure how he got this nickname.

RISP Pigs: "Runners In Scoring Position" Pigs. We don't like these snoinking pigs, because they prevent the Nationals from hitting with RISP.

I hope this helps our new members. I know that there are a lot more, but this is a start. Let's see some more!

Where: Unitarian Universalist Church, 4444 Arlington Blvd, Arlington VA 22204 (Classroom 12)

When: Saturday, March 3, 2012, 1:30pm until 5:00pm

In celebration of the new contract extension for the FOTF, as well as the first Spring Training game of the 2012 season (next Saturday) we are going to try to record our audition to sing the Anthem at a Nationals game this summer. We have ten singers, so we may actually have harmony and everything. To those who expressed an interest, you should have received a more detailed e-mail this afternoon. If there are other singers in our midst, this is your last chance to join up! And we accept moral support from all.

John, aka "d_c_guy"

Starting in a thread last season (and touched on a couple of other times in the past few months) there was discussion about possibly getting together a group (Federal Baseball Singers? Feel free to suggest a better name) to sing the National Anthem at the ballpark this summer. Well, stuff just got real, y'all :-) The Nationals are scheduling auditions (not open to the public) on Saturday, March 10. Only 90 singers/groups will be scheduled, and it's first come/first served. I have a contact in the Nationals' offices that has already put my name on the audition list. From the announcement:

NATIONAL ANTHEM PERFORMERS

The first 90 anthem hopefuls to submit their resume (performance or otherwise) and a recent photo to anthem@nationals.com will be invited to audition live at Nationals Park on Saturday, March 10.

Anthem performers must meet the following prerequisites:

-The anthem should be no longer than 90 seconds

-The anthem must be performed in the traditional style; all auditions must be A cappella.

-Groups and instrumentalists are invited to audition as well

These auditions are not open to the public and will take place regardless of weather conditions For more information, visit nationals.com.

Of course, I don't actually have a group together yet, and apparently I have only a few weeks to put one together. Anyone interested in joining our happy crew please contact me directly at d[underscore]c[underscore]guy@yahoo dot com (yeah, I know, original, isn't it?). Posting in this thread is less helpful, but appreciated as a second option. Bonus points if you have a personal favorite arrangement of the Anthem to try, and/or access to a recording studio. The latter is helpful because the team will also take recorded submissions.

Who's in?

The headline is Contenders or pretenders? With or without Harper, 19, team expects to take next step. The article does a general writeup with some organizational stats (including that the organization only paid $700,000 per win in 2011, proving that "the plan" is thrifty!), a position-by-position assessment ("position competition abounds") and an extremely brief look at the farm system ("Well-stocked system set to pay off"). They look at the five upcoming prospects - Harper, Meyer, Rendon, Purke, and ... Eury Perez? Really? No accounting for taste, I suppose. Marrerro, Moore, Lombardozzi, Hague, and Hood do get mentioned in their positional assessments.

The report is as of December 26, so it includes the Gio Gonzalez trade and the acquisition of Ryan Perry but does not include the DeRosa signing - only notable since the need for a deeper bench is cited in the report. The publication does state that the farm system remains stocked even after the Gonzalez trade. A little light reading for y'all to help us through the next couple of weeks as we slog our way to February 19 (52 days until Pitchers and Catchers Report!), February 23 (Position Players Report!) and March 3 (First ST Game!).

In a post on Nationals Insider, Mark Zuckerman walked through the ramifications of various debut dates for Bryce Harper, assuming that occurs sometime in 2012. Because that question only comes up all the time here, I thought I would cross-post to it as a public service (while giving Mark credit where credit is due). From Mr. Zuckerman:

Just to clear this up, here are the different scenarios for when Harper debuts and how that affects his arbitration/free agency status...

-- If Harper is on the Opening Day 2012 roster (and if he stays in the majors for six years without any demotions), he would become a free agent after the 2017 season.

-- If Harper starts 2012 in the minors and is promoted before roughly mid-June, he wouldn't become a free agent until after the 2018 season but would qualify for Super-2 status in 2015. Though he's already scheduled to earn a $1 million salary that season, there's a provision in the contract that allows him to earn an arbitration-level salary if he qualifies. So this scenario could cost the Nats several million dollars.

-- If Harper starts 2012 in the minors and is promoted after roughly mid-June, he wouldn't become a free agent until after the 2018 season and wouldn't qualify for arbitration until after the 2015 season. This scenario both saves the Nats money because it eliminates the Super-2 possibility and ensures another season of team control before Harper can become a free agent.

I know it's all confusing -- believe me, sometimes I can't even get it all correct in my head -- but hopefully this helps clear it up a bit.

In addition to my regular tour through FB, Nats Insider and other outposts on teh interNats, I am a fan of John Sickels' site. I've learned a lot about minor leagues from his comments and those of other posters there. As I was looking up Destin Hood for a comment in another thread I found Sickels' assessment of how the Nats Top 20 prospects (as identified last winter) did in the 2011 season. Note that the assessment was done on August 3, so it doesn't quite reflect the players' final stats on the season. The bottom line was that it was generally a good year. The Nats' preseason top 20 prospects and John Sickels' assessment of their 2011 performance:

1) Bryce Harper, OF, Grade A: Hit .318/.423/.554 with 14 homers, 19 steals, 44 walks and 61 strikeouts for Low-A Hagerstown at age 18. Promoted to Double-A, struggled at first but hot lately, hitting .238/.303/.325 with eight walks, 16 strikeouts in 80 at-bats.  .297/.357/.486 in last 10 games. Amazing talent.

2) Derek Norris, C, Grade B+:  Hitting .207/.365/.423 with 55 walks, 75 strikeouts, 13 homers for Double-A Harrisburg. Hitting for power with high walk rate, as expected, but batting average is too low to be acceptable. Has thrown out 40% of runners but passed ball rate has more than doubled from last year.

3) Danny Espinosa, INF, Grade B:  Hitting .226/.314/.421 with 17 homers, 12 steals, 36 walks, 107 strikeouts in 390 at-bats for Washington. I think he'll get better.

4) Sammy Solis, LHP, Grade B:  3.69 ERA with 68/21 K/BB in 71 innings for Hagerstown and High-A Potomac, 73 hits. Throwing strikes as expected, picking up some grounders, doing OK.

5) A.J. Cole, RHP, Grade B:   3.47 ERA with 67/13 K/BB in 57 innings for Hagerstown, 53 hits. Very solid performance, no complaints, command has been sharp.

6) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B-: Hitting .248/.324/.415 with nine  homers, 29 walks, 49 strikeouts in 258 at-bats for the Nationals. I bet the Twins would like to have him back.

7) Robbie Ray, LHP, Grade B-:  1.91 ERA with a 76/30 K/BB in 71 innings, 48 hits for Hagerstown. Could stand to lower the walk rate but otherwise very impressive.

8) Michael Burgess, OF, Grade C+: Traded to Cubs in Tom Gorzellany deal. Hitting .223/.324/.412 with 14 homers, 51 walks, 91 strikeouts in 345 at-bats for High-A Daytona. Still has the power and patience, but other skills have not developed as hoped.

9) Eury Perez, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .271/.306/.312 with 16 walks, 45 strikeouts, 32 steals in 317 at-bats for High-A Potomac. Good speed, but lack of walks and zero power suppress his stock.

10) Rich Hague, SS, Grade C+: Season ended after four games for Potomac with a shoulder injury.

11) Cole Kimball, RHP, Grade C+: Threw 14 shutout innings for Triple-A Syracuse, then 14 innings for the Nationals with three runs but an 11/11 K/BB. Out with rotator cuff surgery.

12) J.P. Ramirez, OF, Grade C+: Very disappointing, hitting .225/.277/.3445 with 21 walks, 57 strikeouts in 307 at-bats for Potomac.

13) Chris Marrero, 1B, Grade C+:  Hitting .309/.381/.449 with 11 homers, 47 walks, 81 strikeouts in 408 at-bats for Syracuse. A good year, but questions still remains: will he hit for enough power to play first base?

14) Steve Lombardozzi, 2B, Grade C+: Hitting a combined .310/.360/.437 with seven homers, 28 walks, 63 strikeouts, 22 steals in 435 at-bats for Harrisburg and Syracuse. Extremely reliable, has made just two errors this year. Deserves a major league trial.

15) Brad Meyers, RHP, Grade C+: 3.46 ERA with 93/11 K/BB in 107 innings combined at three levels, 115 hits. K/BB in Triple-A is 51/11 in 64 innings. Outstanding control.

16) Brad Peacock, RHP, Grade C+: Breakthrough guy, 2.01 ERA with 129/23 K/BB in 99 innings for Harrisburg, 62 hits. Command has slipped some since promotion to Triple-A, 19/12 K/BB in 20 innings, 4.43 ERA but just 12 hits. Always had strong stuff, just needed to refine it. Stock way up.

17) A.J. Morris, RHP, Grade C+: Traded to Cubs. Injured all year.

18) Tyler Moore, 1B, Grade C:  .274/.313/.538 with 24 homers, 20 walks, 108 strikeouts in 409 at-bats for Harrisburg. You have to like the power, but I remain suspicious about his plate discipline.

19) Tom Milone, LHP, Grade C:  Amazing command, 120/10 K/BB in 117 innings, 110 hits for Syracuse with a 3.62 ERA. Just went on DL with "bicep tiredness." Unfortunate since rumors from Washington indicated he was about to be promoted.

20) Daniel Rosenbaum, LHP, Grade C: 2.59 ERA with 108/41 K/BB in 132 innings for Potomac, 113 hits, 1.62 GO/AO. No complaints here. Just promoted to Harrisburg.

Overall very positive, with Ramos and Espinosa leading the way. Not uniformly so: Derek Norris was a mixed bag. Rick Hague and Cole Kimball got hurt. So did A.J. Morris, but he did it for the Cubs as he was traded along with Michael Burgess, (who under performed - Rizzo points to head) for Tom Gorzelanny. J.P. Ramirez and Eury Perez also both under performed (unfortunately both outfielders, a need position). Still, fifteen of the 20 (75%) of the prospects stayed on track (Solis, Rosenbaum, Moore) or better. So, who will be on the Nationals' "Top 20" prospects going into 2012?

Two of last year's prospects (Espinosa & Ramos) graduated to the Nationals and won't be back; they aren't prospects any more, they are big leaguers. Morris and Burgess were traded. Four more (RHP Peacock, LHP Milone, 1b Marrero, IF Lombardozzi) got September callups but will still be considered prospects and should make it. The top minor leaguers from last year that didn't under perform are also likely to stay on the list unless pushed off by a better prospect - so add Harper, Norris, Solis, Cole, Ray, Meyers, Moore, and Rosenbaum. That's 12 of 20 slots. Who are the other eight slots? Given what will be fierce competition for top 20 slots, Eury Perez and J.P. Ramirez may have played their way out of the Top 20. It's too early to give up on them, but they will have some ground to make up. It's not clear where Hague and Kimball will stand after their injuries, either, so they are wild cards.

Other wild cards include OF Erik Komatsu (23yo picked up for Jerry Hairston, struggled at Harrisburg but did well at AA Huntsville, .294/.393/.416, rated as a C+ prospect for the Brewers last year although at the time of the trade Sickels rated him as a C), SS Zach Walters (21yo picked up for Jason Marquis, .300/.367/.457 combined low and high A ball,rated as a C prospect although at the time of the trade Sickels said he may have moved up to a C+; now in the AFL with Harper and Norris), OF Corey Brown (25yo, picked up too late last year for the 2011 Nationals preview, Sickels did identify him as a borderline B-/C+ prospect going into 2011 where Brown had three bad months at Syracuse and then a few good weeks to get him to a late season callup despite his.235/.326/.402), and IF/OF Matt Antonelli (26yo minor league free agent signing, former #1 (#17) pick and BA #50 minor league prospect who came back from injury to lead Syracuse in OPS with a .297/.393/.460). Since Antonelli is again a free agent I don't know whether he will get rated, but since he was with the Nationals most recently (and I like him) I'm including him.

Others "of note" identified by Sickels that didn't make last year's top 20 but may have done well enough to move up onto this year's list include C David Freitas (22yo, .288/.409/.450 at Hagerstown), OF Destin Hood (21yo, .276/.364/.445 at Potomac), RHP Taylor Jordan (22yo, 9-4 2.48 ERA 1.198 WHIP 6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 at Hagerstown), IF Blake Kelso (22yo, .293/.357/.365 at Hagerstown), SS Jason Martinson (22yo, .252/.360/.448 with 19 HRs at Hagerstown), OF Randolph Oduber (22yo, .301/.361/.407 at Hagerstown. Atahualpo Severino was also identified as "of note" and he did get a late season callup - but it's hard to see him as Top 20 material. Of this group, Freitas, Hood, Martinson and Oduber may well move up. Hood (along with Solis) was named to Baseball America's Top 20 Carolina League prospects.

Ah, but that doesn't include the Nats' highly touted 2011 draft class! Make room at least for the top four: Rendon, Purke, Meyer, and Goodwin.  And that's not counting 3b Matt Skole, the Nats' 5th round pick, who Baseball America named as the #13 NH/Penn League prospect. The 21yo Skole did was lead the league in doubles while posting a .290/.382/.438 in his first season of work. Now it's getting crowded.

Of those 30 players, my guess for Sickels' top 20 (in very approximate order): Harper, Peacock, Rendon, Cole, Purke, Meyer, Norris, Lombardozzi, Solis, Ray, Milone, Meyers, Freitas, Hood, Skole, Moore, Marrero, Walters, Goodwin and Antonelli. This means that Brown, Severino, Perez, Ramirez, Oduber, Jordan, Kelso, and the remaining members of the 2011 draft class will have to be "of note" ... for now. It likely will take at least a C+ to crack the top 20 this year; even with Ramos and Espinosa gone, this is still clearly a minor league system on the upswing.

So ... who's on your top 20 Nationals' prospect list? :-)

::Edited because I forgot to put Purke into my own list! I blame sleep deprivation::

How long does it take for a former prospect to regain his status?  How significant is age against a prospect when the extra years are lost not to middling performance, but to injury?

The guy who brought this question up for me is Matt Antonelli.  As most of you probably know, he is a former 1st round pick (17th overall, 2006) of the Padres.  He was drafted out of Wake Forest, signed quickly and progressed rapidly through their system in 2006 and 2007.  His progress up through AA ball at that point had Sickles rating him as a B+ prospect and the #2 guy in the Padres system with a good glove, solid bat and good strike zone judgment but questionable power (I'm guessing the latter is why the Padres moved he from 3b to 2b). 

But Antonelli fell off the table in 2008 (although he did get a cup of coffee with the Padres that year), going from a .294/.395/.476 in AA in 2007 to .215/.334/.322 in AAA in 2008.  His numbers didn't improve in 2009 (.196/.300/.339) and after 54 games he was shut down with wrist pain that could not be diagnosed and didn't respond to cortisone shots.  He was finally diagnosed with a broken hamate bone and underwent surgery in April of 2010.  According to his web site, he had been experiencing severe wrist pain for two years.  If true, it's no wonder that his batting and power numbers vanished (his batting eye remained solid even when he couldn't hit).  The Padres cut him last December, and the Nationals picked him up for a song.

And, with the surgery (and the wrist pain) behind him, his bat is back.  Over 88 games and 369 PA - all but 4 and 15 at AAA Syracuse - he has slashed .299/.393/.463 in 2011, posting the best OPS on the team.  He looks a lot like that guy that Sickels rated a B+ entering 2008.  His strike zone judgment is still good (58K, 49BB in 354 AAA PA), but with marginal power (19 2b, 3 3b, 8 HR).  It's clear to me that Antonelli has turned a corner, but even though he's done very well at AAA it's not at all clear where the turn leads.

Understand that I'm not touting Antonelli as a great prospect at this point; I'm guessing his ceiling would be a solid middle infielder/unspectacular #2 hole hitter, with the most likely role being that of a utility guy (he has played 2b, SS, 3b and a little bit of OF in Syracuse).  Right now he's a better story than a prospect; I'm happy for him that he can now say "hey, I could play" instead of just vanishing into baseball obscurity.  But is it enough to make him a prospect?  Is he "back" to a ratable prospect?  Or even a "person of interest?"  Unless there's a trade in DC it's hard to see him starting at the big league level, since the Nationals have a plethora of middle infield types (Espinosa and Desmond starting and Lombardozzi and recent draftee Anthony Rendon - with Zimmerman blocking him at 3b - on deck).  Antonelli just turned 26 in April, and given that he has essentially lost three years to injury rather than suckage I think he’s earned an invite to the major league camp and a chance to compete in 2012 for the Jerry Hairston/Alex Cora utility role on the Nats no matter what happens in the middle infield.

Your views on what it takes for a former prospect to be "back" in general, and on Antonelli in particular, are welcome.

As we all know, as of next week (September 1) teams may play anyone on the 40 man roster - i.e., they are no longer subject to the 25 man "active roster" limitation. Right now the Nationals show 42 players on their 40 man roster, as players that are on the 60 day DL do not count against the limit, and Elvin Ramirez and Stephen Strasburg are both on the 60 day DL. As of next week expect the Nationals to call up at least three players from AAA Syracuse that are already on the 40 man roster: Chris Marrero, Roger Bernadina (who should have been up already) and Atahualpa Severino (who still won't be permitted to pitch). They may also call up Corey Brown, who has had a few good weeks at AAA after four dreadful months. None of these will require additional moves. Activating Doug Slaten from his rehab assignment after September 1 also doesn't involve an additional move, because Slaten was only on the 15 day DL.

The Nationals will also (knock on wood) be activating Stephen Strasburg. They will therefore lose his exemption from the 40 man roster and will need to make a move. However, this is not challenging; the National have at least three players (Adam Carr, Cole Kimball and Adam LaRoche) who could be shifted to the 60 day DL.  This makes room for Strasburg, and also for two other players.  Great!

Now it gets a little harder, because the Nationals have talked about activating three other players: Steve Lombardozzi, Brad Peacock and Tom Milone. None of these players are currently on the 40 man roster. One possible answer would be to shove Pudge Rodriguez onto the 60 man DL. With the need to play Flores, this isn't that much of a problem - although I'm guessing Pudge would prefer to play, I'm not sure how much opportunity he would get anyway. This would get the Nationals through the end of the 2011 season. Excellent!  But now it just gets harder.

AFTER THE SEASON

This is where the juggling act begins, and where Rizzo inking Harper, Rendon and Purke to ML contracts begins to squeeze the team a bit.  After the end of the season, players on the 60 man DL must be reinstated to the 40 man roster or designated for assignment.  In practical terms, your 40 man roster is only allowed to have 40 men on it.  To RobBob's dismay, that means that LaRoche counts again.  So do Carr and Kimball. 

In the short term this is not an issue, because free agents do not count against the roster, and the Nationals have at least eight players on the 40 man roster who will be free agents after the season:  Todd Coffey; Livan Hernandez; Chien-Ming Wang; Ivan Rodriguez; Alex Cora; Rick Ankiel; Jonny Gomes; and Laynce Nix.  So even with the three players coming back, the Nationals will have five extra slots.  Four if they offer Gomes arbitration, which they may well do if he qualifies for Type B free agent status. Because Gomes hasn't hit much this year, the Nationals run the risk of Gomes accepting arbitration and taking up a roster slot.  No worries, we have plenty, right?

RULE 5

This is where it gets fun.  Remember Rule 5?  The Nationals have used it in recent years to raid other teams for players, most notably for Jesus Flores.  Last year the results weren't so good:  the Nationals picked up Elvin Ramirez and Brian Broderick.  Ramirez (perhaps conveniently) got hurt and Broderick went back to the Cardinals when the Nationals needed his roster spot.  The Nationals lost infielder Michael Martinez to the Phillies (of all people) and he's still there.  And this year a LOT of players in the Nationals organization are subject to the Rule 5 draft, at least according to a post that I saw over at Nationals Prospects.  They include Peacock, Milone and Lombardozzi, mentioned above; that's why I think they all get called up, because they're going to need to be protected anyway.  If that post is right, here are some of the other players the Nationals will need to protect or risk losing them: 

Carlos Alvarez (aka Bowden's Folly - he's actually putting up good numbers in low A ball this year after being in visa limbo for two years - not surprising since he's old for the league) (25, IF, .352/.438/.462 at Auburn (NYPL))

Matt Antonelli (26yo, IF, 292/.382/.444 at AAA)

Erik Arnesen (27, RHP, 8-4, 8.5 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 2.56 ERA, 1.118 WHIP at AA)

Archie Gilbert (27, OF, 308/.381/.475, 11 HR at AA)

Erik Komatsu (from the Hairston trade) (23, CF, 282/.371/.394, 7HR, 20/28 SB at AA)

Shairon Martis (24, RHP, 7-5, 10 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 2.98 ERA, 1.256 WHIP at AA)

Brad Meyers (26, RHP, 5-4, 7.4 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 3.62 ERA, 1.268 WHIP at AAA)

Tyler Moore (24, 1b, 265/.302/.510, 27 HR at AA)

Derek Norris (22, C, .199/.355/.432, 18 HR at AA)

Josh Smoker (22, LHP, 10.3 K/9! 6.3 BB/9! 1.52 ERA, 1.289 WHIP at A+)

Jhonatan Solano (26, C, 282/.339/.405, 5 HR at AAA

Zachry Zinicola (26, RHP, 9.9 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 1.99 ERA 1.059 WHIP at AA)

There are a bunch of others, but these are the significant ones.  Expect Norris to be elevated, because even though his batting average has fallen two straight years his OBP and power numbers (especially now that he's healed from the hamate surgery last year) are too good to expose, especially given his youth.  The rest of these are tougher. I expect that Moore, Solano, Komatsu, Smoker and Meyers will get serious consideration. Moore has big league power, but will he ever be a big league player?  He's also blocked by Morse, LaRoche and Marrero even if the Nats don't go outside for a FA 1b. Smoker is (with JZim) half of the Alphonso Soriano compensation. He spent years being terrible, but has discovered new life as a flame throwing lefty out of the pen - just in time for the Rule 5 draft (thanks, Josh).  He's only doing it at Potomac, though - and his control is still lousy (6.3 BB/9). But lefties are always in demand.

The Nationals can't protect all of these guys without exposing other players. Of the players on the 40 man roster that could be moved, Adam Carr is the most likely candidate to go. Garrett Mock isn't far behind him, although I agree with RobBob that he is showing just enough as a possible relief pitcher that he may survive - for now. Because he got hurt, the Nationals would have to offer Ramirez back to the Mets before trying to send him to the minors. Of the rest of the Rule 5 eligibles, I'd be shocked if anyone took Alvarez. But he's hit well enough to at least be on the fringes of the radar; the question is whether he can take the bat with him to higher levels. Martis is what he is - with the pitching depth in the organization it might be good for him to get a Rule 5 shot somewhere else. I don't know enough about Zinicola to say whether the numbers are a mirage or not.

BOTTOM LINE

With only 4-5 roster spots open, the Nationals are likely to lose some players in the Rule 5 draft this year. One cost of building the farm system is that a team becomes the hunted in the Rule 5 process. And don't forget that any free agent the Nationals sign (Wang, Mark Buehrle, or Yu Darvish on the mound? Pudge Rodriguez for a top notch defensive backup with great intangibles and no bat? Prince Fielder to play 1b? One or both of the Gomes/Nix for DJ's "hairy bat on the bench"?)  costs them another roster spot. Unless they make multi-player trades, that roster is going to be very crowded very quickly. IRWT?

It has seemed to me that the 2011 Nationals are a team that doesn't deal well with prosperity - by which I mean that having a big lead early is no guarantee of success for the Nationals.  That's true of all teams, of course; everyone hacks up a furball of a game now and then.  The key there:  now and then.  Was it more than that for the Nationals?  I went back through their games to see.  This is easier than you might think; the Nationals don't score four runs that often, only doing so in 51 of their 101 games so far.  Since you have to score four runs to ever have a four run lead in a game, that meant I didn't even have to look at about half the games.  I also discounted four run leads that occurred in the 9th inning or later - it's harder to blow a four run lead when the game is essentially over when you take the lead. 

With those criteria, I found that, if the Nationals take a four run lead before the 9th inning, they are (as one would expect) more likely than not to win.  Their record in such games is 12-7, a .631 winning percentage (although they nearly lost several other games; on 6/5 led 4-0 in the 8th, blew the lead, and still won 9-4 in the 11th (don't mess with the Nats in the 11th).  The flip side is that, even if the Nationals have a big lead, they've failed to hold it 36.9% of the time.

I'll leave it to others to figure out whether this is above or below the league average winning percentage in games where the team had (at some point before the 9th inning) at least a four run lead.  I'd be really surprised if it wasn't considerably below league average, but I'm not going to look at all the MLB box scores and figure this out.  What I will say is that the reason it hurts for Nats fans is that the Nationals have lost three games in a row where they had at least a four run lead at some point in the game:  yesterday against the Dodgers; a week ago against the Braves, and (most spectacularly) on July 7 when they lost the game after having an 8-0 lead.   Yes, they've done it once a week this month despite skipping a few games due to the ASB.  And that, ladies and gentlemen, is very hard to do.

If you're curious, the 19 games where the Nationals led by four or more runs at some point before the 9th:

April 6:  Led Marlins 4-0 in the 5th; lost 7-4.

April 8:  Led Mets 6-2 in the 8th; won 6-2.

April 12:  Led Phillies 5-1 in the 5th; won 7-4.

April 17:  Led Brewers 7-2 in the 6th; won 8-4.

April 20:  Led Cardinals 7-0 in the 3rd; won 8-6.

May 10:  Led Braves 4-0 in the 4th; won 7-6.

May 12:  Led Braves 5-1 in the 6th; lost 6-5.

May 15:  Led Marlins 6-0 in the 1st; won 8-4.

May 20:  Led Orioles 12-5 in the 5th; won 17-5.

May 24:  Led Brewers 6-2 in the 4th; lost 7-6.

May 31:  Led Phillies 5-0 in the 3rd; won 10-2.

June 2:  Led Diamondbacks 4-0 in the 5th; won 6-1.

June 5:  Led Diamondbacks 4-0 in the 8th; won 9-4* (blew lead, won in 11).

June 6:  Led Giants 4-0 in the 3rd; lost 5-4.

June 15:  Led Cardinals 5-0 in the 4th; won 10-0.

June 17:  Led Orioles 8-4 in the 8th; won 8-4.

July 7:  Led Cubs 8-0 in the 4th; lost 10-9.

July 17:  Led Braves 6-2 in the 5th; lost 9-8.

July 23:  Led Dodgers 6-2 in the 3rd; lost 7-6.

As the Nationals entered the offseason after completing the 2010 campaign, Nationals' GM Mike Rizzo made it clear that his top goal was pitching generally - but most particularly a #1 starter.  There was only one such starter on the free agent market, Cliff Lee, and the Nationals were never more than dark horse candidates to land Lee.  Ultimately, of course, he signed with the Phillies.  The Nationals also made a play for Jorge De La Rosa of the Rockies, but he spurned the Nationals and resigned with the Rockies instead.  Mike Rizzo may well have caught a break when his trade offer to the Royals was vetoed by Zach Greinke, who was ultimately traded to the Brewers. The Nationals were also linked with many other names, including But many other names were also floated, and each time many posters castigated Rizzo for failing to move aggressively.  A couple of weeks short of the halfway point of the season, how has Rizzo done?

The Nationals Starting Rotation (ranked by 2011 ERA+):

Jordan Zimmermann (before today's win over the O's): 4-6, 3.10 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 123 ERA+

John Lannan: 4-5, 3.52 ERA, 1.391 WHIP, 109 ERA+

Livan Hernandez: 4-8, 3.77 ERA, 1.296 WHIP, 101 ERA+

Jason Marquis: 7-2, 3.86 ERA, 1.390 WHIP, 99 ERA+

Tom Gorzelanny: 2-4, 4.25 ERA, 1.226 WHIP, 90 ERA+

Interesting to note that Marquis, especially after his rocky outing yesterday, has seriously benefited from run support this year despite his gaudy W-L record.  Zimmermann, Lannan and Hernandez have losing records but have arguably been better this year.  Compare these results with the three starting pitchers linked to the Nationals through trade talks.  Remember that acquiring any of these pitchers would have cost the Nationals in terms of future talent, and (in the case of Greinke or Carmona) almost certainly Jordan Zimmermann, their most promising and effective 2011 starter, as well.

Matt Garza (traded to Cubs): 3-6, 4.14 ERA, 1.423 WHIP, 98 ERA+

Zach Greinke (traded to Brewers): 3-6, 5.23 ERA, 1.238 WHIP, 75 ERA+

Fausto Carmona (remained with Indians): 4-8, 5.79 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, 66 ERA+

Clearly none of these pitchers represent (so far) a significant upgrade over what the Nationals already have, with the possible exception of Garza over Gorzelanny - who ironically enough was traded by the Cubs after they acquired Garza.  And when the talent that would have been given up is factored in, Rizzo can feel pretty good about these roads not taken.  But what about free agents?  Free agents would not have required the Nationals to give up talent, although signing Cliff Lee would have cost the Nationals their 3rd round pick in this draft - which was used to draft TCU LHP Matt Purke - if he signs, there is some chance that 5-6 years from now Purke will be better (and much less expensive) than Lee.

Free Agents linked to the Nationals* (as ranked by 2011 ERA+):

Jorge De La Rosa (resigned by the Rockies, 2 yrs, $21.5 million): 5-2, 3.51 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 129 ERA+, season ended with Tommy John surgery at the beginning of June.

Cliff Lee (signed by Phillies, 5 yrs, $120 million): 7-5, 3.12 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, 124 ERA+

Carl Pavano (resigned by Twins, 2 yrs, $16.5 million): 4-5, 4.20 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 95 ERA+

Javier Vazquez (signed by Marlins, 1 yr, $7 million): 3-7, 6.85 ERA, 1.676 WHIP, 58 ERA+

Brandon Webb (signed by Rangers, 1 yr, $3 million), got lit up in one rehab start, immediately shut down with shoulder inflammation.

Justin Duchscherer (signed by Orioles, 1 yr, $700,000), contract can increase to $4.1 million with incentives.  Shut down last week after feeling pain in his surgically repaired hip during extended spring training.

It's easy to see why Rizzo made a serious play for De La Rosa, who was clearly the class of this group through the early part of the season.  Sadly, his season has been derailed and the Rockies are likely to get poor value for their two year contract.  Cliff Lee has been quite good for the Phillies, but to get into the Cliff Lee sweepstakes the Nationals would have had to go well beyond the Phillies both in years and dollars.  The rest of this class varies from extremely mediocre and expensive (Pavano) to lousy and expensive (Vazquez) to not yet ready for work (Webb, Duchscherer). 

Bottom line:  I give Rizzo a solid B.  I can't give him an A because if a deal for Greinke would have involved Jordan Zimmermann AND more talent (possibly including Desmond and a prospect), it would have been a disaster.  We're not quite sure what the exact deal would have been, but it still hurts Rizzo's grade.  Even though De La Rosa is injured I can't fault Rizzo for making a play for him, and backing out of the end of the Lee sweepstakes also wroked out well.  Not going after Pavano, Vazquez, Webb or Duchscherer clearly turned out to be smart moves even though there were a lot of posters here and on other sites that were savage in their criticism of Rizzo when these players went elsewhere. Sometimes the road not taken doesn't go anywhere good.  And just maybe Rizzo deserves some credit for his offseason work.

*These were just pitchers that I saw were linked to the Nationals; if there was another pitcher linked please feel free to point it out in the comments.

Greetings from a Nationals fan.  I'm the guy whose comment from Federal Baseball ("Wow, the Cards are just ... awful.  They were in first place") got reposted in the game thread here on Wednesday.  Reposted, it looked like some brash trash talking - which would be pretty hilarious coming from a fan of a team whose goal (right now) is to finish out of last place.  And believe me, nothing is farther from the truth.  One of the guys on FB tipped me that my comment was quoted here, and this was as early (with the two day delay) that I could post an apology.  Which I now offer.

Until the Nationals came to town, the Cardinals were my NL team, in honor of my maternal Grandmother.  She lived for years in Alton, and always referred to the team as "My Cardinals."  The first MLB game that I attended was when my Grandfather took me to a game in old Busch Stadium.  I was really young at the time and don't remember much about the game except that the Cardinals beat the Astros and the Cardinal bird flying around the scoreboard and saluting at the end.  That might have been 1970, but I'm no longer sure.  Tempis fugit, as they say.

For the comment, the baseball adage "you're never as good as you seem when you win, or as bad as you seem when you lose" really holds true.  Yes, the Cardinals played awful against the Nationals (like you need me to tell you that).  But they're not an awful team - they may have the most awesome 3-4-5 heart of the order in the game, and the team has some decent pitchers as well.  In DC we have the Redskins, the Wizards, and just recently the Nationals lost an astonishing 206 games in two years.  Trust me, we know awful, so take it from me - the Cardinals are not awful even if they occasionally play that way.  And for family reasons, I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for the Cardinals.

Although admittedly not for Tony LaRussa ...

As many of you may remember, last year the Nationals traded Christian Guzman to the Texas Rangers for two minor league pitchers, Ryan Tatusko and Tanner Roark.  For the Nationals it was a good trade, deepening the talent pool in the minors, clearing Guzman's remaining salary and opening a spot for Danny Espinosa.  Guzman proceeded to stink up the joint in Texas, posting a .154/.204/.174, was left off of the postseason roster and is currently a free agent (he is reportedly likely to miss at least the first half of this season with family issues). Both Roark and Tatusko performed well up to the AA level last year; Tatusko was particularly effective at Harrisburg, but Roark more than held his own.  So far, so good.

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Well, we're one week from Opening Day (Huzzah!) so I don't even care that the weather sucks.  Better now than next week!  Time for the final roster countdown.  Not that anyone asked, but if I were Rizzo & Riggleman, this would be my 2011 Washington Nationals:

SP (5):  Livo; J-Zimm; Lannan; Marquis; and Gorzelanny.  I expect Detwiler and Maya to open in Syracuse, but I also expect that they will be starting in DC by this summer.  The AAA rotation would also include Milone, Stammen and Mock, and none of the previous emergency starters (Martin, Atilano, Martis, Chico).  They will fight it out for spots in the bullpen (Kimball will be the closer there) until someone else gets called up.  This is really where you feel the organization's progress; with Solis, Peacock, Roark and Tatsuko at AA Harrisburg, it's going to take considerably more talent to stay on the Nationals' pitching ladder.  It's still very early, but getting Roark and Tatsuko for Guzman is feeling like a steal.

Bullpen (7):  Burnett; Storen; Clippard; Slaten; Balestar; Broderick; and Rodriquez.  I've seen nothing from Coffey or Gaudin to indicate to me that they are anything other than the mid-4's ERA >1.5 WHIP guys that they've been in their careers.  H-Rod is the only one on here due to option reasons; Broderick has earned his way into the "long relief" role and offering him back to the Cardinals would be a mistake.  Storen and Clippard have struggled in Viera, but (like Capps last year) should have the chance to step it up as the season opens - and anytime I have a choice between older and plateaued (Coffey) and younger with potential (Storen and Clippard), the 2011 Nationals should go for youth and upside.

Catcher (1):  Pudge.  The HOF catcher gets to start Opening Day, but Ramos starts April 2nd and should get 3-4 games a week regardless of the schedule.  Flores in Syracuse and Norris in Harrisburg will be pushing here, so it is doubtful that Pudge lasts the year unless Ramos or Flores is traded for a SP or CF.

Starting infield (4): Zimmerman, Desmond, Espinosa and LaRoche.  No debates here.

Starting outfield: (3): Werth, Morse, and ... Morgan.  Yes, I said it.  He's going to open on a short leash, but I'm not a big believer in Ankiel as a starter - and I think Ankiel offers more coming off of the bench.  I wouldn't hesitate to bat Morgan 8th though, and he could be gone pretty quickly.  Hairston should start in CF against lefties.

Bench (5):  Ramos/Pudge, Hairston, Ankiel, Gonzalez, Bernadina.  This works because Morse can play 1b or 3b in a pinch.  Bernadina wins a spot over Stairs in my world because of the "younger with potential" principle.  That said, I think that the flexibility provided by Hairston and Morse enables the Nats to carry Stairs if they want to, and Bernadina would start in LF in Syracuse while Cory Brown plays CF there.  A right handed bat off of the bench other than Ramos (or shortly thereafter, Pudge) would be nice, but I'd rather have the other righties (Zim, Werth, Morse) in the lineup.  Alex Cora hasn't earned a spot on this roster, IMHO, being in the "old and plateau'd" camp.

Morgan's status is the most precarious; he may end up making the Bernadina/Stairs question moot in a big hurry if he reverts to his early Spring performance level over the last few ST games.  Storen, OTOH, I think gets to at least open the season in Natstown.   I do wonder who the "emergency catcher" will be now that Willingham is in Oakland.

Well, there they are, d_c_guy's 2011 Washington Nationals.  Let's see what Rizzo has up his sleeve ...

According to John Sickels and minorleaguebaseball.com, the Nationals' farm system has moved into the top 50%; the site ranks the Nationals farm system as #13 of 30 MLB teams.

And this ranking is based on the true core purpose of a farm system:  producing major league players, preferably impact players.  While it's nice to have minor league affiliates with winning records (several affiliates got a taste of playoff baseball this season), if the system is winning with has-beens and never-will-bes, then it's just not helping. This summer I may try to get to Harrisburg for a game or two, to see Eury Perez, Derek Norris, Tyler Moore and some of the others vying for a chance to be part of the future at Nats Town.

Like the filth of Saruman, at long last the horrible mismanagement of Minaya and Bowden (pause for Doghouse to yell:  BOWDEN!) is washing away ...

According to MASN, the contract is one year for $8 million.  Zuckerman has the signing but not the amount. 

I would rather have had Lee for one year than LaRoche for three; let's hope that the scuttlebutt is true that the Nats are the only team left in the hunt.  A two year deal for LaRoche would be fine, perhaps a three year deal with a team option for a nominal buyout of the 3rd year.  Personally I'd prefer to have LaRoche at 1b and have Morse as a 400AB swing guy platooning with Bernadina in LF and also spelling Werth in RF and LaRoche at 1b.  That would also give the team some real thump from the bench with Morse from the right side and Stairs from the left.  But they need to sign LaRoche first.

Minor League Baseball posted their list of top 20 Oakland A's prospects recently, and in that thread I asked John Sickels for his updated evaluation of Henry Rodriguez and Corey Brown, the two prospects the Nats picked up for Josh Willingham.  They missed getting grades because his review of the Nationals prospects was posted before the trade (November 17), and the review of the A's prospects obviously occurred afterwards. 

In response to my question Sickels said that he rated both Brown and Rodriguez as C+, borderline B- prospects.  As a refresher, in the Sickels lexicon Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role while Grade C prospects are the most common type (of ranked prospects). These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don't make it at all.  So both of these players are somewhere in the middle, with some development possible but by no means sure things.

There's good news and bad news in their grades.  Sickels considers himself a tough grader and notes that "C+ is actually good praise from [him]."  Obviously a borderline B- is even better.  However, he also notes that a Grade C project in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in AAA is likely just a future role player - and Brown has already had one inglorious brush with AAA (although he lit up AA when he was sent back down).

Placed in a Nats context, these grades put Brown and Rodriguez at the back end of the Nationals top 10, judging by Sickels' list from November.  To review, his rankings and grades were:  (1) Harper - A; (2) Norris - B+; (3) Espinosa - B, borderline B+; (4) Solis - B; (5) Cole - B; (6) Ramos - B- (likes his glove, not his bat); (7) Ray - B-; (8) Burgess - C+, borderline B-.  Rodriquez and Brown would slot in right behind Burgess, ahead of a raft of C+ prospects (Perez, Hague, Ramirez, Marrero, Lombardozzi, Meyers, Peacock and Morris).  He has Maya as a C, incidentally, although he indicated in the thread that Maya's grade might be too low and will be reconsidered (he also indicated that the final grade for Espinosa may end up a B+ when he publishes his book.

You may compare with Baseball America's Top 10 Nats prospects, which came out right after the trade and doesn't mention the trade or Brown and Rodriguez at all.

I know it doesn't really matter because the Redskins won, but was there ever any replay that made any sense out of the Darren Cox "interception" in the second quarter?  That was a very important swing, because the Redskins were in a good position to pad their lead with 1st and 10 at the Jaguar 17.  The announcers were all over it, saying that clearly the replay would reverse the INT as Cox's left foot clearly landed on the line when he came down.  And then ... it wasn't.  And the announcers later reported that "they were told" that the defender's left foot was on the ground when he caught the ball.  From the replay that they had shown over and over again it looked like Cox's feet were (no joke) at least 12" off the ground when he caught the ball.  There was no view that I saw where the call made sense at all.  And yet the announcers dropped it like a hot potato, and there was nothing about it in the Post's coverage today.  And yet giving up a good shot at 3 points and a possibility of 7 in a game that went to OT I would think was HUGE.  And yet ... nothing.

I wasn't on the thread yesterday, so apologies if this was already beaten to death there.  But am I crazy, missing something, or was that exactly the type of play that instant replay was supposed to solve?  I'm not just a homer - I thought the sack at the end of regulation was called correctly.  While you could only just see the ball between Carter and the other guy sacking Garrard, it was at least arguable that Garrard's hand was still holding the ball when his knee hit.  Given the "tie goes to the call on the field" ethos, I was disappointed but thought they got it right.  But for the life of me I can't figure out what the HELL the replay guy was looking at on the pick.

If anyone has a link to a view that makes sense of it, please post it here.

In addition to family, feasting and other folderol, I am thankful for the game of baseball, the opportunity to spend a summer afternoon or evening at a Washington DC ballpark, watching on TV (with the sound off and listening to Charlie & Dave on the radio), Friday Night Fireworks, savoring the wins and suffering the losses in shared fandom. I am thankful for Patrick & David for the effort they put into this site, to Mark Z. for his taking lemons and making Insider Lemonade out of it. 

Happy Thanksgiving, yea even to the long-departed Mamba, to Clint and the Nat Pack ;-)

First things first:  I'm firmly in the "sign Adam Dunn" camp. Not because it makes Ryan Zimmerman happy, although I do want Zimmerman to be happy. Not because it will make the fans happy, although I think that the Nationals have thoroughly squandered the goodwill of their $600+ million stadium and it would behoove them to make nice with the fans (it would be nice if we could "expect it"). No, I think signing Dunn gives them a better chance to compete - and win.  But that's for another time.

However, once the trading deadline was past without a trade or a contract free agency was inevitable. Dunn had every reason to try the open market, and the Nationals had lost their right to trade him. The Nationals (Rizzo) have made it clear that they didn't feel that any deal that they were offered at the trade deadline was worth the two draft choices that they would get if Dunn left as a Type A free agent. And after a bit of excitement and speculation, Dunn did indeed turn out to be a "Type A" free agent. So, Adam Dunn is a "Type A" free agent - what was it that Rizzo was comparing the trade deadline offers to? What will the Nationals get if they lose Dunn to free agency?

First we need to understand that not all Type A's are the same - they are ranked in order. According to Fanhouse,  Dunn is 24th of the 31 Type A free agents.  If a team loses a Type A free agent, they are awarded a supplemental first round pick, and also are awarded a draft pick from the team that signs the free agent away, generally a first round pick.  This is why Rizzo would say that any offer for Dunn had to be worth more than the two first round picks that the Nationals would receive if they lose him. Not one but TWO first round picks!  Nice!  Well, not so fast there boys and girls - it sounds good but it may not be quite all that.  I'll deal with the supplemental pick first.

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I'm certainly no Phillies fan, but I've been a Roy Halladay fan for a long time.  As a Yankee fan I was happy to see him leave the AL - he was a reliable Yankee killer.  As a Nats fan it's tough to see him with the Phillies, but to throw a no hitter in his first postseason game, well, it couldn't happen to a better or classier guy.  Well done, Doc. Well done indeed.

All of you have been listening to me bitch complain about the Nats' seeming inability to get opposing pitchers out.  Up until now that has just been anecdotal - it seems like every game that I go to or watch on TV, the opposing pitcher gets at least one hit.  I've been nagging Natstats to break down the numbers, but if a job's worth doing, it's worth doing yourself.  I've been home sick today, and just to make me feel better (?) I decided to go ahead and run the numbers.  The verdict?  Opposing pitchers are doing very well at the plate against the Nats.  According to Yahoo sports, the league batting average overall is .264.  Opposing pitchers are hitting .253 against the Nats. 

Nats position players with lower batting averages this season than the opposing pitchers:  Nyjer Morgan; Adam Kennedy; Willie Tavares; Wil Nieves; Willie Harris; Justin Maxwell.

The total numbers:  in the Nats' first 86 games, the opposing team has sent their pitcher up 181 times.  Those pitchers have K'd 43 times, walked (how humiliating!) 3 times, and sacrifice bunted 23 times.  With 40 hits in 158 official at bats, plus the three walks, pitcher have a .267 OBA.  With four doubles and 2 HR's in the mix (Chacin of Houston and Latos of SD), pitchers have an AVG/OBA/SLG/OPS of .253/.267/304/.571.  That's lousy, right?  Well, yes.  For a position player (TAWH has an OPS of ... .571).

I don't know why the Nats struggle so much against opposing pitchers ... but I wish they'd cut it out!

Greetings all!  I've been so focused on jury-rigging my schedule to see Strasburg pitch that I completely lost track of the fact that I have four tickets to Monday night's game against the Royals.  Like usual, it's a 7:05 start and I'll be there in the second row of Section 309 even though Strasburg isn't pitching (It'll be Livo).  My normal accomplices in crime have all come up lame, so I have three extra tickets.  Since I've been swapping bon mots with so many of you during game commentaries I thought it would be fun to toss this open to the Federal Baseball community and get to meet some of you in person. 

I won't be on the page tomorrow during the day (doing some offsite work) so if you want to get in on this, e-mail me at d_c_guy@yahoo.com with your name.  If I get any takers I'll leave the tickets at will call for you and confirm with you probably tomorrow mid afternoon. 

Of course, if this kind of post is illegal, it's all a hypothetical situation :-)

As we all know, until fairly recently the Nationals have had a low profile in baseball.  This has carried over to the all-star game; for the past four years the team has only had the required minimum one player take part in the summer classic.  Last year Ryan Zimmerman was the only National, and before him was Christian Guzman (2008), Dmitri Young (2007) and Alfonso Soriano (2006).  The only year there were two Nationals was in 2005, when both Livan Hernandez and Chad Cordero were selected.  Both deserved to go, but even so two players was rather a low total for a team that was 52-36 at the time (a 95-96 win pace).  Even before they came to DC, only one Expo (Livo again) made the team in 2004.  Given that history, and the fact that the team is battling just to reach the .500 mark before the break, it seems an odd year to make a case for increasing the number of Nats in the All-Star game. 

And yet ...

As was noted here recently, the heart of the order has been meaty.  Strong cases can be made for Ryan Zimmerman (who won't, but should, be the #1 vote getter for the NL at 3b), Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham.  Despite Livo's renaissance season, none of the starters have put themselves into position for consideration;  Livo's lack of support over the past few weeks will keep him out.  But both Tyler Clippard (tied for 3rd in the NL with 8 wins) and Matt Capps (leading the league with 20 saves, 3 more than anyone else) will be hard to ignore.  As much as we might like to see them get some time off, Clipp & Save are having excellent seasons.

Five Nats in the All-Star game?  In a year when the league may will award an All-Star game to Nationals' Park?  It could happen.  How many Nats do you expect to see on the NL roster in July?

I can't believe that I'm the first one to post about it, but I'm happy to make my first fanpost a big tip of the burgundy & gold helmet to Russ Grim, the first Hog in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. I used to feel that they must have really thought Joe Gibbs was an uber-genius, because he went to 4 Super Bowls and won three with only one HOF player, John Riggins, for two of them!  Now that Monk and Green have been joined by Russ Grimm, I'm somewhat mollified p though I still think that Joe Jacoby and Gary Clark should at least get consideration.

A Hog in the HoF