SB Nation User Blog: da34shadow

Claver better than Rubio?

da34shadow — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:45:55 -0000

Claver better than Rubio?

"To be honest, I think Victor Claver is the best pro right now out of Rubio and Sergio. I know people may think I’m crazy for that comment, but hey, it’s my opinion. Victor Claver is like 6’9; he can score and is very athletic." - Pooh Jeter

Portland's Historic Rise

da34shadow — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 21:08:39 -0000

About a month ago, Dave finished his assessment of the Blazers by saying: "We have not seen a sense of wonder like this since the late-80's Drexler-led teams started to emerge. That's quite an accomplishment. This was quite a season." That final statement got me thinking about more than just this season. I wanted to know if, from both a franchise and an NBA perspective, a team like Portland had ever "risen" (as defined by three straight years of win percentage improvement) like this before. I found the following:

From a franchise perspective:

Only one time before in the history of the franchise has Portland increased its win percentage for three consecutive seasons. Those '71-‘72 to '74-'75 teams were lead by Sidney Wicks and Geoff Petrie. They help bring Portland from winning only 18 games in 1971 to winning 38 games in 1974. Nevertheless, Portland was not able to keep that momentum going and dropped to 37 wins in 1975 - which happened to be Bill Walton's rookie year. For comparison purposes, I stacked the win percentage increase of the two teams:

As you can see, the disco Blazers (much easier to say than the '71 to '74 Blazers) did not improve their record nearly as much as the current squad and were never able to win more than half of their games. From a franchise perspective, the city of Portland has never seen a "rise" like this before. I should also note that if Portland can win more than 54 games, they will be the first Blazer squad ever to improve their record for four consecutive years.

From a league perspective:

Using a slightly more stringent test (a team must have improved its record by at least 10% for three years in a row), I found that Portland is in some seriously rare air. In fact, only 3 other teams in the history of the NBA have ever the same type of record improvement.

Team 1: ’70-’71 to ’72-’73 Celtics. This team was led by John Havlicek, Dave Cowens and Jojo White, who combined went to a whopping 27 all-star games. They won 44, 56 and 68 games for those three seasons and followed that up by averaging 49 wins for the next 5 seasons. Most importantly, their success culminated in two championships during the '73-'74 and '75-'76 seasons.

Team 2: ’72-’73 to ’74-’75 Sixers. This team seems to be the most different one compared to the other three because their best players seemed to change every year. Fred Carter led them for all three years followed up by Tom Vanarsdale for two and Billy Cunningham and Doug Collins for one year. In total, those players accounted for 12 all-star games in their careers. The Sixers won 25, 34 and 46 games for those three seasons and followed up that run by averaging 55 wins for the next 5 seasons. They did make it to the Finals in '77 but were snuffed out by your Portland Trailblazers!

Team 3: '98-'99 to '00-'01 Mavericks. I almost missed including the Mavs because their first year of improvement came during the strike shortened '98-'99 season. They were led by Dirk Nowitzki, Michael Finley and Steve Nash, who have accounted for 14 all-star games. The Mavs won 19, 40 and 53 games for those three seasons and followed that up by averaging 57 wins for the next 5 seasons. They made it to the Finals in '06, but lost the battle of the whistles to the Heat.

These three teams are good examples of the possibilities that are in store for the Blazers. It is very doubtful that this Portland team as currently comprised will have any sub .500 seasons. In fact, 50 wins a season seems to be the minimum that should be expected. Adding to the first point, all of those teams played in the NBA finals within 6 years of their improvement. Portland stacks up pretty favorably with all three of these teams, as the graph illustrates below:

In the end, history backs up the fact that Portland's three-year rise has been something that is rarely ever seen. With some good luck, Portland will use this momentum to propel themselves into the upper echelon of NBA teams and start collecting those championship rings as early as next year.

Portland Helped Miles

da34shadow — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 04:40:17 -0000

One common truth that seems to have been totally disregarded in this whole Miles saga is that Portland helped Darius Miles by medically retiring him.

Miles did not fit with Portland’s culture. Much like Rasheed Wallace before him, Miles was tainted (fairly and unfairly) by the Jail Blazer era. Simply put, while he remained with Portland, he could never really recover his image. Now, Miles is seen as a tireless worker who wouldn’t let the man (or doctor) keep him down.

Miles did not fit with Portland’s roster. Portland needed to get younger, they needed to give rookies and sophomores a chance to shine and Miles was neither. Once he was injured, his shot of actually contributing to Portland’s roster was drastically reduced. Put it this way, if he was on Portland’s roster he would be sitting by Martell and Ike.

Miles was not getting better in Portland. This is related to point #2. Miles was not going to get playing time and, therefore, did not work very hard to get back on the court. His body was not getting better, while he literally wasted away in Portland. The medical retirement gave him a reason to come back. It gave him hope of resurrecting a once promising career. He has worked hard to get back on the court - that would not have happened if he was still with Portland.

Portland gave other teams a reason to give Miles a chance. Pretty self-explanatory.

Portland increased his salary. With the NBA admitting that they denied Portland’s waiver claim, Miles has a legitimate argument that a team was willing to pay his salary for the entire remainder of the season. If he gets cut by the Grizzlies, he can say that he was denied a chance to make some more money.

Who's barking now?

da34shadow — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 05:46:19 -0000

Who's barking now?

"There was a big buzz around the team about local product Nicolas Batum—the player we came to scout ...

da34shadow — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 22:36:43 -0000

"There was a big buzz around the team about local product Nicolas Batum—the player we came to scout this time last year—now starting for the Portland Trailblazers after being drafted in the first round last June. He had 15 points and 6 rebounds in the evening before the game, and is really acquainting himself well with American basketball. One of the journalists we met, Bruno Palmet of local newspaper Le Maine Libre mentioned having spoken to him that day and passed on how happy he is in Portland at the moment. The people in Le Mans are very happy to see Batum succeeding, as they put a significant effort into helping him develop.

It’s funny to look back a year ago and think about the evaluation we offered up back then—talking about a super versatile talent with incredible physical tools, but questioning whether he has the aggressive mentality required to be a lottery pick. A huge amount of confusion regarding the diagnosis of a minor heart problem, combined with his physical magically disappearing following a workout he conducted with the San Antonio Spurs, led him to being drafted by the Houston Rockets and then sent to Portland on draft night.

It’s not hard to pick up on the irony here. The team that diagnosed Batum with a heart problem—the Toronto Raptors—ended up selecting a player (Nathan Jawai) who’s career is now in doubt due to concerns over heart problems, while Batum is looking like one of the biggest steals of the draft. His perceived biggest weakness back when he was considered a potential lottery pick—a lack of aggressiveness—is exactly the reason why the Trailblazers love having him on the floor with their starting unit, as he brings an incredible amount of versatility to the table with his terrific defense, passing skills, basketball IQ and athleticism. His biggest weakness is now his biggest strength, having landed in the perfect situation, and he looks well on his way from what we can see early on."

Is Portland Really Clutch?

da34shadow — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 03:17:50 -0000

After watching Portland play and win several close games this season, the question of whether Portland was a clutch team entered my mind. The problem is that the word "clutch" is invariably a relative term. Therefore, I made an assumption that any game that ends with Portland winning by a maximum of 2 possessions (six points or less) or goes to overtime, is evidence that the Blazers are clutch. Using that assumption, I went back 4 years (2 years with Pritchard making the decisions and 2 without), and analyzed all of Portland's games.

What I found was pretty interesting. Portland is clutch. In fact, they are getting more clutch with every passing year. From 2004-2006, Portland played in 66 close games and won 26 of them, or approximately 39% of them. From 2006-2008 Portland played in 61 close games and won 38 of them, or approximately 62% of them. Furthermore, Portland is 5-2 this year in close games, displaying further evidence of Portland's continued clutch play.

I attribute this newfound "clutchness" to the Pritchard effect. He was integral in the past drafts that netted Aldridge, Roy, Rodriguez, Oden, Fernandez and Bayless. He was active in the hiring of McMillan to guide the team. He placed a high value on team chemistry and replaced anyone who threatened to harm it. Simply put, he changed the culture of the team so that, when games got close, when difficulty was faced, it would have the resolve to win the game. The biggest evidence of that resolve is how Portland plays in games that went to OT or were won by a single point. Last year Portland won 7 of those games in 10 tries, this year they are 3-0. All in all, I think this shows that Portland really is a clutch team.

9 Ways to Improve the NBA Draft

da34shadow — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 14:36:57 -0000

I have been thinking about it for a while and here are 9 ideas that will improve the quality of the draft and its coverage. All of these ideas can be initiated by the NBA and really add value to its product.

1) Add more pre-draft coverage. The NBA needs to capitalize on the fact that only 60 players are drafted each year and even less actually make it into the league. Why not profile them in a “60 prospects in 30 days” fashion? The average fans would be able to see more than just 15 seconds of highlights on a given prospect and the interviews could be a bit more in-depth.

2) Move the draft from the weekday to the weekend. Right now, the draft forces NBA fans (who hold down an 8-5 job) on the West Coast to either join late or skip a bit of work. The same can be said for fans on the East Coast who have to stay up until the wee hours of a weekday night to watch the end of the draft.

3) For the sake of David Stern, his cohort Adam Silver and the viewers, spell the prospects names phonetically on the draft cards. Darrell Arthur’s name should appear as “Dah-rel Ar-thur”. Its simple and would eliminate a lot of confusion.

4) Speaking of the fans, revamp the draft coverage. This starts with eliminating the in-draft interviews of the prospects. No one learns anything from the interviews and they detract from the actual coverage of the draft. Form a team consisting of Jay Bilas, Chad Ford and Snapper Jones. Let them lead the draft coverage. Add more speculation. I found out about all of the trades via the internet, and not during the broadcast. Add more highlights of the draftees. Fire anyone who is not prepared to talk about a player who was chosen 12th overall.

5) If a prospect falls past the 19th pick, they should be taken backstage, away from the media. It is agonizing to watch a guy slip and it actually detracts from the players that are being selected before him. Take him backstage, to an out of sight out of mind place.

6) Allow teams to trade draft picks for cash. Currently, the NBA allows teams to trade draft rights for cash, but not draft picks for cash. The difference is miniscule and it leads to more confusion on the part of the prospects, the fans and even the broadcasters. Also, changing this rule would allow for teams to take immediate possession of the draft pick, instead of being forced to call another team to make the pick on behalf of them.

7) Allow teams to trade picks in consecutive years - I call this the Phoenix Suns rule. As it is, teams must wait to draft a player and then make a trade. It unnecessarily slows down the trade process and does not add any value to anything. Finally, the rule does not accomplish anything as seen by the fact that the Suns did not make a first round selection for several years in a row.

8) Speed up the trade approval process. If necessary, have the arm of the NBA that approves trades work around the clock on this one to make sure that trades can be completed and announced in a timely fashion. As it stands, trades simply take far too long to be completed.

9) Create a period of time between the day before the draft and the beginning of the next fiscal year called “Period 13.” This is the last, and most important change because Period 13 would allow teams to make trades using either salary values from the current NBA season or the next NBA season. Essentially, trades that will not work for salary purposes in 07-08 but will work for 08-09 would be immediately approved. It should be noted that only one time period (07-08 OR 08-09) could be applied to the trade.

I wish I could have shortened this post, but I think all of the ideas would make the draft a much more enjoyable event.