SB Nation User Blog: dahlian

Torre says Juan Pierre will go to center

dahlian — Sat, 02 Aug 2008 09:32:35 -0000

Torre says Juan Pierre will go to center

For those wondering how the ManRam trade will influence our chances of winning the pennant, this about says it all. This had the potential to big help for the Dodgers' offense as they could relegate both of their outfield sink holes to the bench. Now instead of going with Manny (140 OPS+ this season, 154 career), Kemp (110, 110), and Ethier (100, 106), they will instead toss Pierre's 69 OPS+ (75 last year) into the mix at a position that they had already deemed him to be a defensive liability.

In short, they had a chance to a replace a player in Juan Pierre that's created 35 runs this season (not counting base running, which is admittedly a plus) with a player in Ramirez that had created 76 runs with the bat. Instead, they've chosen to replace, Ethier, the hitter that has created 55 runs this season.

Players may come and go, but the biggest obstacle towards the Dodgers winning this division remains themselves.

D-Backs' draft pick Schlereth appears injured

dahlian — Sat, 07 Jun 2008 05:08:54 -0000

D-Backs' draft pick Schlereth appears injured

Daniel Schlereth and the Diamondbacks received a potentially devastating blow when Schlereth was forced to cease his warm-ups with an apparent injury Friday in University of Arizona’s NCAA super regional at Miami.

Schlereth, the D-Backs’ first-round pick in the 2008 draft Thursday, threw one pitch in the bullpen during the sixth inning before he stopped throwing.

ESPN cameras later showed Schlereth, a left-hander, icing his left arm.

Schlereth underwent Tommy John ligament replacement surgery on his left elbow in 2004, when he was injured in the final game of his freshman year.

Wonderful, absolutely wonderful.

Japanese-American Baseball in Arizona - Chandler Library Talk

dahlian — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 20:21:26 -0000

Japanese-American Baseball in Arizona - Chandler Library Talk

For any East Valley residents with flexible lunch-time work schedules, this talk looks interesting.

Bill Stapes, Chandler resident and baseball history enthusiast
June 24, 2008
11:30-12:30
Chandler Public Library, 22 S. Delaware St.
City Council Chambers
Come and learn about this interesting time when the "boys of summer" played behind barbed wire fences in Japanese interment camps in the desert south of Chandler. Bill Stapes, Chandler resident and baseball history enthusiast will speak.

WSJ: Baseball Analyst Draws Fans by Crunching Election Numbers

dahlian — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 20:17:01 -0000

WSJ: Baseball Analyst Draws Fans by Crunching Election Numbers

For six years, Nate Silver has used statistics and formulas to project baseball players’ performances before the season has begun. Now he’s gaining wide attention by applying similar statistical techniques to the presidential election, by projecting the breakdown of the Electoral College.

But is it science?

Diamondbacks 4, Nationals 7: Wee Willie Harris hits one out of town.

dahlian — Sat, 31 May 2008 06:21:32 -0000

Record: 30-25. Pace: 89-73. Change on last season: -2

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: That one hurt. In the first two games, we were never really in them, so the defeat was more inevitable than anything too disturbing or shocking. This one, however, was looking pretty good into the seventh inning, as we kept the game even, and Micah Owings continued to make his case for being the best number three starter in the continental U.S. (take that Shaun Marcum – USA!!! USA!!! USA!!!). But then it got worse…

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not as if the front six innings were stellar baseball. But I was honestly beginning to geek myself up with the hope that my first ever Snakepit recap would be about the Diamondbacks finally snapping their four-game losing streak. The defense may have been a bit shaky: in the second inning Chris Young misplayed a shallow pop-up into a single that turned into one of two runs and four innings later Orlando Hudson joined him by botching two ground balls that allowed Christan Guzman to score on a sac fly. The offense may have underwhelmed us: in the fifth inning they managed to load the bases with one out and score only one run – over all they managed two solo home runs, four singles, five walks and only four runs. But by god, this game had promise.

The offense and defense were only supposed to be footnotes in this recap, because for six innings Micah was outstanding. Owings started off the game allowing only five hits (three of which should have been outs), no walks, six strikeouts and one hit batsmen. He announced his presence with authority as he attacked the strike zone throwing only 66 pitches through the first six innings. With the bat in his hand he finally broke his out of his 0-11 slide as he drew a walk and contributed a rally-extending single. The stars looked to be aligning themselves to give this team an emotional victory off of a dominant starting pitching performance and just enough offense. Then the seventh inning came and the wheels fell off for Owings…

After inducing a fly-out, Owings hit his second batter of the game. Another single put runners on and first and second and returned doubt to the newly tied game. Then, in a feat of game-altering improbability not seen since July 24, 2005, Wee Willie Harris hit a three-run home run to blow the game open and assure all the Diamondbacks fans watching that no, this would not be the night the streak comes to an end. Ladies and gentleman that is not a typo. Willie Harris, he with the career OPS+ of 68, he with the .169/.300/.305 batting line coming into tonight’s game, and he with all of eight home runs in 1302 career at bats took Micah Owings long with a three run homer that put the final dagger into this team’s heart.

If you continued watching the game after that point, I commend you, but I wouldn’t blame you if you turned the t.v. off. Nevertheless, there were at least some positives. Tracy got a couple hits and his first home run of the season, Hudson continues his offensive tear and Scherzer pitched a dominant inning and two-thirds before struggling some. While the team was only down two runs in the bottom of the ninth, one could not help but get the feeling that Melvin was already conceding the game. In that inning Max allowed a walk, a ground out, a single and another walk to load the bases. 37 pitches had been thrown, but there was nary a rustle to be heard from the left field bullpen. While Scherzer managed to work out of the inning allowing only one run (his first run allowed as a reliever this season), the fight was gone as the team went down in order in the ninth.

The positives are becoming harder to find and I know that there are many that went to jump of the bus, but I just want to remind you that it could be worse. Specifically, we could have last year’s offense. This team’s 107 OPS+ is thirteen points higher than last year’s 93 OPS+. Moreover, as hard as it may be to believe, this team has still been rather fortuitous hitting with runners in scoring position; the team’s OPS is 14 percent higher with RISP than with base empty. Hard as it may be to believe at the moment, this team can and will score more runs.

The true difference between this year and last is luck. As Jim has noted, this team has yet to win a game scoring three runs or less. In 2007, we won 16 such games. That was with a worse pitching staff and a defense that was only marginally better. I know it was cliché here last year to bag on the predictive powers of Pythagoras, but what we’re looking at here is good old-fashioned regression to the mean. The 2007 Diamondbacks that "just knew how to win" were a fluke. If we want to do the same this year we’ll have to it the old fashioned way – by hitting more and allowing fewer runs. Hopefully, that comes sooner rather than later.

Of course, when you combine a lackluster game with a Friday night the net result is one of the shorter Gameday threads of the season. I'll leave it to Jim to fill out the names, but there wasn't much of conversation of interest to be found. Tomorrow sees us send Brandon Webb (9-2, 3.01) to the mound to face Jason Bergman (1-1 4.50). Normally this would be seen as a dawn's first ray of hope, but I have to admit that it's even getting difficult for me to get all that enthused. If you are going to the game (and why wouldn't you?) remember that it's a 5:10 start. You'll also be able to see the first use of the new Chase Field weekend roof management plan. Apparently they plan to close the roof for the beginning of the game and open it three innings later once the sun has gone down. It seems like a reasonable compromise to fight the hot, desert sun, but more importantly, who doesn't enjoy watching the roof open and close? At the very least, it will provide a nice distraction from the performance on the field.

[Click to enlarge in new window]
Master of his domain: Chad Tracy, +13.8%
Honorable Mention: Orlando Hudson, +12.1%
God-emperor of suck: Micah Owings, -47.3%
Dishonorable mention: Conor Jackson, -14.1%

You know it's a bad evening in the Gameday Thread when even 'skins can't reach 100 posts. :-) Harris's homer basically turned the faucet off on everyone's interest, mine included, and what was looking fairly robust at that point, rapidly gurgled down the plughole of forgettability. Thanks to those who took part: we deserve better than this team, folks. Present were unnamedDBacksfan, snakecharmer, dahlian, DbacksSkins, foulpole, srdmad, IndyDBack, emilylovesthedbacks [welcome!], RAMJB [officially warned, after a number of comments teetering towards trollishness], Muu, kishi, TwinnerA and soco.

Thanks also to dahlian for the recap; you'll notice from the footer that he has now formally joined the rotation, giving him the ability to...well, I'm not quite sure what it lets him do. I think post stuff on the front-page mostly. Welcome, anyway!

EB22 Bickley interview audio

dahlian — Fri, 30 May 2008 23:45:11 -0000

EB22 Bickley interview audio

Courtesy of Piecoro:

"We finally got an MRI which I did not, um, had not ever gotten because I kept kind of refusing and I was scared to see what was in there."

What a gamer.

Medders clears waiver, remains with Diamondbacks

dahlian — Fri, 30 May 2008 23:09:38 -0000

Medders clears waiver, remains with Diamondbacks

Well, that all seems like much ado about nothing now, doesn't it?

Billy Beane gasp and Bullpen Management

dahlian — Fri, 30 May 2008 22:25:10 -0000

I brought up this topic a bit in yesterday's gameday thread, but I just wanted to make another post fleshing the details out a bit when I talk about what the Diamondbacks could learn from their philosophy.

First of all, to cut out the chorus of knee jerk responses, this isn't a bullpen by committee. The A's have a set closer in Huston Street who is their best pitcher. They use him in the most important situations. The biggest difference is that they have an organizational philosophy that all of their players can recite about what a "save" is to their team.

I first noticed then when I was watching a post game interview with Eric Chavez. He said something to the effect of " We had the lead going into the 8th inning when the 3,4,5 hitters were coming up so that was the save."

Don't you see the elegance in this approach? I think even Foulpole would agree that saves are a wonky stat - all saves are valued the same whether it's a one-run lead a three-run lead or if you're facing the bottom of the order compared to the bottom of the order. If you save your closer for strict "save" situations, most of the time that means they won't be used in the situations with the highest leverage. Also, the great thing about this approach that many "sabr" bullpen approaches lack is that it still provides that routine and predictability that most relievers cite as an important facet of success. You can see the "save" coming from an inning away and you aren't forced to have your number one reliever constantly get up and down adding to their fatigue.

As a young organization with a strong farm system, it wouldn't be that hard to implement this philosophy. Lyon, too, should be able to adjust to this approach given that it was less than a year ago that he filled that eighth inning role. We shouldn't be losing these close games with our best reliever never getting off the bench.

Offensive Consistency and Opposing Pitchers

dahlian — Tue, 20 May 2008 21:21:15 -0000

A few days ago I was wondering if there was a reason for the Diamondbacks' dominance of the NL West that goes above and beyond simply pointing to the weakness of the rest of the division. One of the things that came was the adjustment period that broadcasters always bring up when teams face new pitcher. My thought was that for a young offense such as this one, they would have a faster learning curve again the pitchers in their division than they would against the out of division pitchers that they rarely see.

To look further into this I've compiled a spreadsheet of this team's offensive performances against all the pitchers faced so far this season while also listing the number of past starts those pitchers have made against Arizona since 2007. Why 2007? Well, it was part laziness and part of it just seemed like a good mid-point to choose. Sure, some players like Drew, CJ and Snyder have had at bats before then, while others like Option J and Reynolds will have never faced some of these pitcher (specifically the NL East pitchers), but I figure it's a start.

That being said, I'm not sure how much analytical value this information will have. There are some trends, but at the same time there are sample size issues galore. Also, I just realized that I left out the home parks - something that also can have a big effect. Nevertheless, I thought some here have probably had the same questions at some time and would be interested in seeing the data. Also, if anyone wants a copy of the spreadsheet file to do their own monkeying with the data, just shoot me an email.

First, some fun little numbers:

Opposing pitchers' ERA with 7 starts - 10.97

6 starts - 13.94

5 starts-6.11

4 starts-4.86

3 starts- 10.29 (courtesy of Maddux's 9 ER)

2 starts- 6.02

1starts- 5.97

0 starts- 5.23

Also, ERA among pitchers that we've faced more than once this season:

First start - 5.72

Subsequent starts - 10.09

Unfortunately, these numbers are the result of taking a bludgeon to the problem. To get something more useful you would have to compile the combined pitcher's ERA for each group to account for the differences in quality. To do that seems daunting, though. But I've digressed enough, here are the raw numbers:

Player	Innings	Runs (R/ER)	Previous Starts	ERA to date
A. Galarraga	6	2.2	0	3.06
B. Myers	5	7.6	0	5.76
H. Kuroda	5.2	4.2	0	3.67
J. Bonderman	6	3.3	0	4.76
J. Cassel	4.2	3.3	0	5.59
J. Cueto	7	1.1	0	5.75
J. de la Rosa	4.2	4.4	0	7.78
J. Santana	6	1.1	0	3.3
K. Kendrick	6	3.3	0	4.76
N. Robertson	5.2	4.4	0	6.08
R. Dempster	6	2.2	0	2.35
S. Gallagher	4.1	4.4	0	4.4
A. Eaton	4	6.6	1	5.59
A. Harang	6	3.2	1	3.12
B. Arroyo	5	4.2	1	6.02
F. Morales (1)	6	0	1	6.39
M. Pelfrey	5	5.5	1	4.17
M. Redman	5.2	5.4	1	7.84
S. Chacon	5	5.5	1	4.14
C. Sampson	4.1	5.5	2	6.46
E. Loaiza	4	4.4	2	5.63
F. Morales (2)	4	7.7	2	6.39
J. Maine	6	2.2	2	2.81
J. Moyer	6	2.2	2	4.89
R. Wolf (1)	6.1	4.4	2	5.05
T. Lilly	7	1.1	2	5.14
D. Lowe	5	1.1	3	5.34
G. Maddux	7	9.9	3	3.98
J. Germano	5	6.6	3	5.88
J. Sanchez	5	4.3	3	4.59
R. Wolf(2)	4	5.5	3	5.05
A. Cook (1)	6	3.3	4	2.82
B. Zito (1)	6	4.3	4	6.25
C. Young	6	2.2	4	4.18
K. Correia (1)	6	5.5	4	4.5
J. Francis (1)	6.1	5.5	5	5.87
A. Cook (2)	5	5.5	5	2.82
B. Zito (2)	3.2	5.5	5	6.25
J. Peavy	7	2.2	5	2.91
K. Correia (2)	6	2.2	5	4.5
C. Billingsley (1)	2.1	5.4	6	4.34
J. Francis (2)	5	7.7	6	5.87
C. Billingsley (2)	6	5.5	7	4.34
J. Francis (3)	4.2	8.8	7	5.87

SI: Snakes Alive

dahlian — Wed, 07 May 2008 21:55:15 -0000

SI: Snakes Alive

Where the Diamondbacks do show their age, though, is in the clubhouse before games. Upton and Young bump along to YouTube hip-hop videos they watch on a Mac laptop; ace Brandon Webb and reliever Brandon Medders strum acoustic guitar duets as their teammates engage in a game they've christened Frisbee baseball, in which one player flings an Aerobie at another, who tries to hit it with a bat. Players rush in from batting practice to resume heated games of Connect Four. Byrnes vies with Jackson and Reynolds in a daily Jeopardy! contest in the adjacent TV room.

The players are so irreverent that last season they huddled around a TV cackling at Jackass: The Movie minutes before the majority of them were to play for the first time at Yankee Stadium. Starting pitcher Micah Owings was spotted flying a kite in the Dodgers Stadium outfield hours before a game two weeks ago.

SB Nation User Blog: dahlian

Torre says Juan Pierre will go to center

Torre says Juan Pierre will go to center

D-Backs' draft pick Schlereth appears injured

D-Backs' draft pick Schlereth appears injured

Japanese-American Baseball in Arizona - Chandler Library Talk

Japanese-American Baseball in Arizona - Chandler Library Talk

WSJ: Baseball Analyst Draws Fans by Crunching Election Numbers

WSJ: Baseball Analyst Draws Fans by Crunching Election Numbers

Diamondbacks 4, Nationals 7: Wee Willie Harris hits one out of town.

EB22 Bickley interview *audio*

EB22 Bickley interview *audio*

Medders clears waiver, remains with Diamondbacks

Medders clears waiver, remains with Diamondbacks

Billy Beane *gasp* and Bullpen Management

Offensive Consistency and Opposing Pitchers

SI: Snakes Alive

SI: Snakes Alive

EB22 Bickley interview audio

EB22 Bickley interview audio

Billy Beane gasp and Bullpen Management