I don't mean to alarm anyone, but the Yankees' big trade yesterday for Curtis Granderson just might put the Phillies in position to pull off that trade for Roy Halladay that we've all been asking from Santa and Hanukkah Harry.

As Todd Zolecki points out, the Phils still have the pieces to make a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays--all the players that former Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi asked after last summer (Domonic Brown, Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose) and others from a system that Baseball America recently ranked fourth in MLB. The Phils wouldn't pay that price then, with the prospect of having Halladay for two playoff runs, so they won't do so now. But they might not have to, either; if things break right, they could be the last feasible trade partner for Toronto, leaving GM Ruben Amaro Jr. enormous leverage.

That's where the Yankee trade comes in. To pry Granderson loose from Detroit, the Bronx Bombers parted with three players who weren't key contributors when they beat the Phillies in the World Series, but did represent a big part of the organization's young depth: almost-ready outfielder Austin Jackson, starting pitcher Ian Kennedy and lefty reliever Phil Coke.  Granderson's 2010 price tag is chump change by Yankee standards--$5.5 million--and he's due a reasonable $18.25 million for the following two seasons with a $13 million club option or $2 million buyout for 2013.  Still, that's an obligation of some significance for a team supposedly looking to trim payroll slightly, still waiting on negotiations with vets Johnny Damon and Andy Pettitte and rumored to be kicking the tires on top free agent starter John Lackey. Between their payroll obligations, a relative paucity of prospects after catcher Jesus Montero and young big-league pitchers Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, and the likely in-division premium they'd have to pay in talent to make a deal with AL East foe Toronto, the Yankees suddenly look like a long shot to trade for Halladay. 

And if they're out, the Red Sox might be, too. 

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(Get it?) 

Okay, that's not quite accurate: the Phillies probably will do something either this week in Indianapolis or in the next couple weeks, before baseball hibernates for the holidays. All reports are that they're looking to add a veteran reliever for high-leverage innings late in games, with Brandon Lyon the desired target if he reduces his demands (and Ruben Amaro obviously happy to telegraph this through media reports) and/or if Chan Ho Park can't be enticed back. Some trades likely are being kicked around, though the rumor that Joe Blanton might be on the block doesn't pass the smell test. As WholeCamels noted yesterday, Andy Martino daydreams in print (or pixels) about Roy Halladay. 

But basically the team that takes the field next April is the team that left it in early November, incorporating the recent additions of Placido Polanco, Brian Schneider and Juan Castro. That the Phillies haven't made and aren't likely to make any earth-shaking moves is a bit boring--but that they really don't have to do so to contend for a title again next year is more than a little comforting. 

UPDATE (1:33 pm): It's official. 

Sounds like the Phillies are closing in on a three-year deal to bring back Placido Polanco as their third baseman. Todd Zolecki puts the terms at three years, $18 million with a mutual option for a fourth year. Polanco, 34, won a Gold Glove for the Tigers last year--as a second baseman. He hit .285/.331/.396 in 2009, and is a .303 career hitter. Of course, Polanco played for the Phils in 2002-2005, coming aboard in the Scott Rolen deal and leaving three seasons later for Ugueth Urbina. 

My first reaction here is despair--well, actually, it's self-flagellation for suggesting that it might be time to trust the Phillies. On its face, this just doesn't make a lot of sense: the team is about to overpay for the decline stage of a player with very little power or speed, being asked to shift positions no less--all while two clearly better options, Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre, remain on the market. That said, if both of those players receive deals for three years or longer, and get paid upwards of $10 million a year, the Polanco contract makes some sense. But those are big ifs, and even if true it doesn't make the Phils a better team on the field in 2010.  

Well, not exactly. But the former farmhand does share a couple interesting tidbits in this Baseball Prospectus Q&A: 

David Laurila: Lou, since coming over, have you found many differences in how the Phillies and Indians do things in regard to pitching?

Lou Marson: One big thing I noticed when I got here is the pitchers weren't long tossing. They only go out to 120 feet. That was something I noticed right away, because in Philadelphia, they have all the pitchers long toss from, what, 190 feet? They go pretty far, and try to maintain that throughout the season. You know, it's just different opinions on everything, and that's one thing I noticed, that we weren't long tossing as much. We were just kind of playing catch, and getting loose, and going from there.

DL: How about pitch usage, especially coming up through the system? Some teams emphasize the importance of the changeup more than others.

Marson: The Phillies were definitely like that. [Pitchers] had to throw a certain percentage of changeups a game. Philly definitely did that. Going to [Carlos] Carrasco, I think that's why his changeup is one of his best pitches, because of how much they made him throw it coming up through the system.

Maybe the prevalence of long-tossing helps explain why the Phils haven't had so many young pitchers, starters in particular, getting hurt over the last few years compared to the late '90s. Not to jinx it, and there have been obvious exceptions like Scott Mathieson, but the fact that they got Brett Myers, Gavin Floyd and Cole Hamels (as well as less-heralded prospects like Happ and Kendrick) to the majors and kept them relatively healthy through the "injury nexus" has struck me for awhile as an unheralded success of the organization. 
The organizational emphasis on the change explains a lot as well, including perhaps Kyle Kendrick's progress in 2009... and makes me wonder if his 2007 promotion and initial flukish success wasn't a hidden negative, in that it probably robbed him of a year in the high minors when the pitch would have developed. Hopefully his remedial season in Lehigh Valley did the trick. 

Through the first two weeks of the off-season, I haven’t heard much out of the Phillies’ front office that’s made me happy. The payroll isn’t going up much, despite a year of record attendance and post-season revenues I assume they didn’t budget for but that included eight home dates, one short of the maximum possible (they didn’t need that Game Five against the Rockies, thankfully). Yet they’re looking at pricey but questionable free agent additions to the bullpen like Fernando Rodney; are evidently hot once again for aging Mark DeRosa ("he's a Penn grad" really isn't a very compelling reason to bring the guy onboard); and reportedly are planning to bring in a "defense-first" type for infield depth. That’s four "ughs" right there, all along the lines of past mistakes we’ve seen the Phillies make—in fact, they’ve made these exact mistakes in previous offseasons. Read Roberto Hernandez for Rodney, David Bell for DeRosa, and Abe "No-Hit" Nunez for whatever slick-glove guy they bring in for the bench. 

Yet I find myself unable to get too worked up about it anymore. it’s not because I don’t care; it’s because I’m now (almost) convinced that whenever my views diverge from those of GM Ruben Amaro Jr., the strong likelihood is that he's right and I’m wrong.

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Not quite 24 hours after the Phillies saw their season come to an end one day and two wins before we hoped it would, my disappointment at the conclusion is starting to give way to something like amazement that they got as close as they did. Of arguably the six most important Phillies pitchers from the 2008 championship run--starters Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Jamie Moyer, and relievers Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and J.C. Romero--a stunning five saw their contributions plummet in the season that just ended. 

By contrast, consider the last NL team to win back-to-back pennants: the Atlanta Braves of the mid-1990s. The world champion 1995 Braves boasted a rotation led by future Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, who combined for 47 wins and 601 innings that season. Their bullpen was anchored by closer Mark Wohlers (204 ERA+) and setup men Greg McMichael (153) and Brad Clontz (117). The '96 Braves, who also lost their repeat bid to the Yankees in six games, had a pitching staff led by... Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Wohlers, McMichael and Clontz. The three starters combined for 54 wins and an amazing 724 innings; Wohlers (ERA+ 145) and McMichael (136) were strong again, though Clontz (77) was much less effective. To sum up, the top five pitchers powered the Atlanta pennant-winners in both years. 

Which brings us to the 2008-2009 Phillies. 

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