Our own David Cohen highlights a rumbling that the assumed divorce between the Phillies and Roy Oswalt might not be as final as all that. I also saw on MLBTR that speculation is hot and heavy around an Angels-Nationals trade that would send Washington rotation mainstay (and TGP bete noire) John Lannan to Anaheim for outfielder Peter Bourjos. All this, plus the seasonal madness that usually comes upon me as we get close to pitchers and catchers, got me thinking...

A plus defensive center fielder with speed and a bit of pop who will turn 25 just before the start of the season, Bourjos is a valuable piece who's got more tomorrows than yesterdays. The Phillies need to get younger, and the only reason the Angels are looking to move him is that they've got a position-player logjam with an even better CF prospect, Mike Trout, knocking on the door and a glut of corner men in both the infield and outfield. Given the choice between Lannan and, say, Vance Worley, wouldn't they go with the younger, cheaper arm? Then the Phillies sign Oswalt at $5-6 million for one season, and they've upgraded across the board.

Worley actually might have more value than Bourjos. Given our glut of high-ceiling relievers and Anaheim's abundance of infielders, maybe there's even a bigger deal to be made around in which the Phillies add a MIchael Stutes or Justin De Fratus and also land talented utility infielder Alberto Callaspo--think a younger Wilson Valdez with a slightly worse glove but much better bat--or Mark Trumbo, a first baseman/corner OF slugger type.

Bourjos either pushes Shane Victorino to left field or takes that position himself. John Mayberry, Jr. assumes the bulk of first-base duties until Ryan Howard comes back from injury, then moves into a sub role at all three OF positions plus first base, freeing up Ty Wigginton to serve as a frequent sub for Chase Utley and Placido Polanco--both of whom will need an off-day or two each week. Having Bourjos gives the Phils a viable CF replacement for Victorino when he reaches free agency after 2012.

Losing Worley would hurt a little, but if there's one area where the Phils have solid organizational depth, it's the rotation. Joe Blanton is the #4 starter, with Kyle Kendrick and Joel Piniero battling it out for #5 and adequate organizational depth with Pat Misch, Austin Hyatt et al behind them. In a year, the first of the Trevor May/Julio Rodriguez/Brody Colvin cohort should be knocking at the major-league door.

One problem would be that Oswalt at $5-6 million would push the Phillies over the luxury tax limit. I guess it's possible that the Angels might consider Blanton rather than Worley; if healthy, he has to be about as good a bet to perform as Lannan, and the Phillies could cover a large-ish chunk of his salary and still find a way under the limit. Of course, given that he's under control only for a year as opposed to Worley, the Phils would have to put in more on their end--again, maybe one of the high-upside relief prospects. But that seems worthwhile to add one or more pieces who could help the team both in 2012 and beyond.

Since erstwhile Phillies closer Ryan Madson signed with the Reds earlier this month, coverage has focused primarily on the great bargain Cincinnati got, and secondarily on how dumb the Phils were to sign Jonathan Papelbon to an eight-figure deal soon after the free agent market opened for business. Lost in the argument over their respective contracts and the back-and-forth over Ruben Amaro’s learning curve in the GM chair are a couple simple facts: in terms of both performance and season-over-season consistency, Madson has a strong case as the greatest reliever in Phillies history, and he delivered the team astonishing value above and beyond what he was paid for in his eight seasons with the team. In fact, by one analysis at least, the Phillies could have doubled Madson’s compensation over that span and he still would have been a significant bargain.

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The Phillies continue to overhaul their bench this offseason, coming to terms with lefty outfielder Laynce Nix on a two-year deal. Nix joins earlier additions Jim Thome and Ty Wigginton among the reserve options Charlie Manuel will have available next season. Financial terms are not yet available.

Nix, 31, plays all three outfield positions and seems most likely to serve as the long half of a platoon in left field with John Mayberry Jr; both also could see time at first base early in the season until Ryan Howard returns from injury. With the Nationals in 2011, Nix put up a .250/.299/.451 line, with 16 homers in 351 plate appearances; all 16 came against right-handed pitchers. For his career, Nix has a .253/.296/.451 line against righties, compared to .181/.235/.271 facing left-handers.

While Nix's career numbers are unspectacular--as seen by the fact that this is his first major-league contract entering a season--his last three seasons have been his best by far in the majors, as he's posted OPS+ figures of 99, 114 and 103. Nix spent 2009 and 2010 with the Reds before joining Washington last season. The Phils will be his fifth big-league team, following earlier stints with the Rangers and Brewers.

As Jim Salisbury notes in the article linked above, the signing probably means that Raul Ibanez won't be returning to Philadelphia in 2012. Nix's production against righthanders in 2011 was almost eerily similar to Ibanez's performance, and--while this obviously is a pretty low bar--he's considered a much better defender. Presumably the price tag will be far more modest as well.

At the outset of an off-season he probably has to get right if the Phillies are to claim a sixth straight NL East title in 2012, Ruben Amaro Jr. has to solve for two distinct but related problems in his lineup. The first is age, particularly the greater susceptibility to injury that comes with it. The second is how to reverse or shift away from what we might call the Polanco-ization of the Phillies offense: the decline in the patience and power that characterized the team’s attack from 2007-2009. 

Most of the names suggested in connection with the second problem are single-position guys: contact-hitter free agents like shortstop Jose Reyes or outfielder David DeJesus, or someone who could add back some of those lost walks and homers like outfielder Josh Willingham or third baseman Aramis Ramirez. (For the bench, the Phils already have brought in one noted patience/power stick: future Hall of Famer Jim Thome. But he’s probably best considered as a no-position guy, as he hasn’t taken the field in five years.)

Another name that’s been linked with the Phils, though, is Thome’s old Twins teammate Michael Cuddyer. This free agent wouldn’t make the team younger—he’ll play the 2012 season at age 33—and his offensive profile of middling patience and power is a fairly close approximation of what the Phils have now. But Cuddyer’s real value, and probably the biggest reason the Phils (or some other team) likely will present him with a three year deal at eight figures per in the next couple weeks, is his versatility. He brings his slightly above average bat to five positions: all four corners, plus second base. That’s the reason why, despite Cuddyer's age and relatively pedestrian numbers, he might be the best fit out there for the 2012 Phils—though he’s not the only one.

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So it was that in the last game of the season, facing an opponent living and dying with every pitch, behind a late-game lineup featuring Brian Schneider, Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez and a sequence of extra-inning relievers that won't see meaningful playoff innings, that the 2011 Phillies made their lasting mark as the best team over 162 games in the long history of the franchise. In the bargain, they went Full Sherman on the hated Braves, tossing the last shovelful of dirt on an Atlanta collapse that ranks with the '64 Phillies, '95 Angels and '07 Mets as the worst in baseball annals. You were expecting something different? 

The game had a schizophrenic aspect from the first pitch, as the Braves sent ace Tim Hudson to the mound against forgotten former fifth starter Joe Blanton. Rolling out their almost-regular lineup at the start (Shane Victorino having gotten the night off with minor back inflammation), the Phils took a 1-0 lead as Ryan Howard doubled in Hunter Pence in the first. Atlanta knotted the score on a Michael Bourn speed run--single, steal, groundout advance, sac fly--and two innings later took a 3-1 lead as Dan Uggla hammered an 0-2 mistake from Cole Hamels, getting some work in a relief stint, into the seats. 

Then it started getting weird. Still down 3-1--thanks to a brilliant Pence throw to nail Uggla at the plate on a Jack Wilson single that ended the sixth--the Phils threatened with runners at the corners and one out in the seventh when Carlos Ruiz hit what looked like a dead double-play ball right at shortstop Wilson. But the veteran booted it as Raul Ibanez came home with the second Phillies run. Victorino came on to pinch-hit against reliever Eric O'Flaherty, absolutely crushed one offering foul... and grounded into an inning-ending double play started turned by Wilson. 

Meanwhile, the Phils' veteran relievers continued to hold Atlanta off the board. After three innings from Hamels, Vance Worley worked out of trouble, followed by a clean seventh from Brad Lidge and a dominant eighth from Ryan Madson. In the top of the eighth, the Phils had loaded the bases against clearly gassed Braves lefty Jonny Venters, but couldn't break through. They got their last shot in the ninth facing Atlanta closer Craig Kimbrel, finishing up a likely Rookie of the Year campaign. Placido Polanco led off with a single, and gave way to pinch-runner Pete Orr. Kimbrel struck out Carlos Ruiz on a full count, but loaded the bases by walking Ben Francisco and Jimmy Rollins. Chase Utley followed with a sac fly to left that tied the score. Hunter Pence followed with another walk, and Braves skipper Fredi Gonzalez reluctantly came out to lift Kimbrel... in favor of Kris Medlen, who had pitched one lone inning all season after a long injury rehab. But the move paid off as he induced a foul-out from Michael Martinez. 

(NOTE: WHILE I'VE BEEN WORKING ON THIS RECAP, THE RED SOX JUST MELTED DOWN IN THE BOTTOM OF THE NINTH, AND THE RAYS WON IN THE BOTTOM OF THE 12TH. A PRETTY DECENT NIGHT OF BASEBALL ALL AROUND.) 

Michael Stutes came on to pitch the ninth, and turned in his most dominant outing in months. But now the reality of the two teams' circumstances seemed to conspire against the Phillies: Howard was out of the game, as was Victorino, and Ruiz soon followed. With Antonio Bastardo evidently unavailable, the Phils' hopes of setting a franchise single season win record, and the Braves' of playing into a 163rd game to keep up with the Cardinals after their 8-0 win over the Astros, came down to a handful of relievers who would be going home after the game, win or lose. Michael Schwimer came out for the 10th, stranding Bourn after Martinez made a great running catch of a deep drive from Chipper Jones. He set them down 1-2-3 in the 11th, and Justin De Fratus survived a leadoff Jason Heyward single in the 12th, stranding him at third. 

The 13th was the fateful inning for the Phils. After Domonic Brown (yes, him) struck out to lead off the frame, Schneider worked a walk, and two batters later moved to third on a Chase Utley single. Pence followed, blooping a single just over Freddie Freeman at first to score Schneider and give the Phils a 4-3 lead. David Herndon, probably battling Blanton for the last spot on the staff, came on looking for his first career save. He struck out Jones on a nasty breaking pitch, walked Uggla after a couple very close pitches, fell behind Freeman 3-1... and induced a game-ending 3-6-3 double play, cementing the Braves' collapse, giving the Phils their 102nd win of the season, and securing Charlie Manuel's franchise-record 646th win. 

Now the focus will turn to a tough first-round matchup with the Cardinals, who won six of nine regular season meetings, boast three good-to-excellent starting pitchers, and feature an inner-circle Hall of Famer in his prime in Albert Pujols. This is the part that's the most fun, and the most agonizing... but not, in terms of the team's caliber, the most meaningful. Over the 162 games now completed, this edition of the Phillies is the best one they've ever put on the field. It's been a joy to watch them... which isn't to say they, or we, are satisfied. 

Crowning Fangraph: 

via www.fangraphs.com

As you know, Phillies ace Roy Halladay made his final start of the 2011 regular season on Sunday, tossing six scoreless innings against the Mets to help the Phils snap their eight-game losing streak and run his record to 19-6. The Doc lowered his 2011 ERA to 2.35, the best full-season mark of his career, and his three strikeouts on the day gave him 220 for the season, also a career best.

Yet somehow I feel like I missed it. Very few of Halladay’s starts stand out for me this season; on the good side, an early-season game he finished against the Nationals when it looked like they were going to get him and his complete-game win against the A’s during interleague play, on the down side his almost-literal meltdown against the Cubs, when he left with heat exhaustion. By contrast, I could give you detail on a bunch of Cliff Lee shutouts and other starts, a handful of Cole Hamels gems and the happy surprise of Vance Worley, even some Roy Oswalt games as he’s shown signs of finding his form down the stretch. Halladay—quiet, undramatic, remorseless—just wins. My overall sense of him this year is in games when he might not have had his eater-of-worlds stuff, got into trouble early and maybe surrendered a run or two in the first, yet made it through seven innings with two or three runs allowed. Yet the numbers don’t hint at gritty adequacy; they shout utter dominance.

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Once Cole Hamels finished his warmup pitches, he performed pretty well in the game after the Phillies clinched their fifth straight NL East title, going seven innings and striking out nine. Unfortunately, that didn't happen until the fourth batter he faced in the Cardinals' top of the first inning, by which time Hamels had surrendered a lineout, a double, and a majestic two-run homer to Albert Pujols. Behind eight shutout innings from ace Chris Carpenter, that was all St. Louis would need in an eventual 5-0 win that brought the Cardinals within 3.5 games of the stumbling Braves in the NL wild card race. 

Allen Craig added two later homers for the Cardinals, a two-run shot off Hamels in the sixth and a solo off Joe Blanton in the eighth. Justin De Fratus made his major league debut for the Phils, pitching a scoreless ninth. Not much else of note from this one: the Phils had eight hits, all singles, and repeatedly hit into double plays to squash a couple modest proto-rallies. Chase Utley did have three of those hits. 

Back at 'em tomorrow in the series finale as Roy Halladay looks for win number 19. Fangraph of meh: 

via www.fangraphs.com

The only real downside to the run of astonishing success that the Phillies have enjoyed these last few years is that there's some risk of becoming desensitized to just how friggin' great it is to watch the ballclub win and win and win. Tonight's win, which featured close to everything special about the 2011 Phillies, was a great reminder of just what a treat it is to follow this team in the hands-down greatest era of its long history. 

In a year when the team has seen three starters mount credible Cy Young Award candidacies, it's only appropriate that starting pitching was key in the clincher. Facing a potent Cardinals lineup, Roy Oswalt threw seven shutout innings, holding St. Louis to five hits and striking out seven. Oswalt again gave hints that he can be a force in October, keeping the Cards off balance relying mostly on a low-90s fastball that featured sharp movement.  It was the fourth straight start and fifth in his last six in which Li'l Roy worked more than six innings. 

He left with a 3-0 lead as the Phils scored single runs in the first, fourth and sixth innings. Hunter Pence plated Jimmy Rollins with a two-out double for the first tally, and Shane Victorino accounted for the next two with a bases-loaded walk, which chased starter Jake Westbrook, and a solo homer. But the Cardinals hung around as the Phils left multiple runners on in the first, third, fourth and fifth innings. 

Those missed opportunities loomed large when Oswalt gave way to Michael Stutes in the eighth. The rookie reliever retired the first two hitters he faced, but gave up four straight singles to Jon Jay, Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman and David Friese that brought St. Louis within a run at 3-2. Charlie Manuel emerged to wave in Brad Lidge, and the hero of the 2008 championship run needed just one pitch to induce an inning-ending groundout from Allen Craig. 

The Phillies put the game away with six runs--roughly equaling what they'd scored in the previous week--in the bottom of the eighth. Carlos Ruiz led off with a hard grounder that Daniel Descalso couldn't handle for a two-base error, and advanced to third with one out on Rollins' single, his fourth hit of the game. Victorino followed with a sharp single up the middle that stretched the lead to 4-2. After Chase Utley was hit by a pitch from Marc Rzepzinski, pitcher number six on the evening for the Cards, to load the bases, Ryan Howard struck out. Octavio Dotel came in as the seventh Cardinals moundsman on the evening--is there anything more exciting than watching LaRussa go back and forth to the mound multiple times in an inning?--to face Pence, who chopped a grounder to Rafael Furcal at shortstop. Furcal looked at second, where Utley was already at the bag, then fired to first... a split-second too late to get Pence, as Rollins scored the fifth run. Implausibly, LaRussa left the righty Dotel in to face Raul Ibanez--and watched as the 39 year-old left fielder yanked a Dotel offering out of the yard to right for a grand slam that capped the scoring. 

Ryan Madson worked around a two-out single to finish things off in the ninth, and the celebration began. The win itself featured contributions both from the guys who've been around for the bulk of the run--Rollins with four hits, Victorino with three runs batted in, Lidge and Madson securing the last four outs--and relative newcomers Oswalt and Pence, who inevitably found himself in the center of the champagne freakout in the clubhouse, sans goggles. Here's hoping he has a few more such events to enjoy over the next six weeks or so. 

Fangraph of GLORY: 

via www.fangraphs.com

Maybe we should appreciate this. The almost universal excellence of the 2011 Phillies has meant precious few opportunities for a fan base long steeped in self-pity and paranoia to vent its fear and loathing... but this week in Houston, where the best team in baseball has dropped two straight not particularly close contests to the worst team in the game, fits the bill. That the Astros have won these two games behind ex-Phillie starting pitchers Brett Myers and J.A. Happ, who came into the series with a combined record of 9-28, is just salt in the wound. After all, it was just two years ago when Myers and Happ were members of a Phillies team en route to its third straight NL East title, the Astros were barely more relevant than they are now, and Houston swept a September series at home. 

In all likelihood, the details of tonight's loss are quite inconsequential. Cole Hamels got into and out of trouble in the first inning, allowing one run on back to back doubles by Clint Barmes and J.D. Martinez. He stranded men in scoring position in each of the next two innings, and former Astro Hunter Pence tied the game at 1 with a solo homer off Happ in the fourth. Then the roof fell in: with one out and someone called J.B. Shuck on second, Happ bounced a grounder to the right side that Ryan Howard couldn't field; instead of a man on third and two outs, the Astros had runners on the corners with one gone. Jason Bourgeois singled through the hole on the left side to score Shuck, and Barmes followed with a three-run homer that put Houston up 5-1. 

The Phils showed brief signs of life in the following half-inning, as Jimmy Rollins singled with two outs and Happ issued walks to Placido Polanco and Pence. Howard worked the count full, then flied out to the wall in left. That was their last base runner until Carlos Ruiz hit a solo homer in the ninth. 

Grim Fangraph below. Remember, though: when this series ends, the Astros are still the Astros, and the Phillies are still the Phillies. 

via www.fangraphs.com

Admit it: you keep waiting for reality to offer up something to substantiate your fears that this Phillies team, obviously great though it is, might stumble when the stakes are highest. You're worried, as you should be--you're a sports fan--that some talented foe might take advantage of relatively favorable matchups and a few lucky bounces and knock off the mighty Fightin's come October. And they might: short series, anything can happen, and all that jazz. But nothing over the last five days--when the Phils have played their two closest pursuers, record-wise, and won all five contests--has offered fuel for your fears. 

Tonight's contest against the Brewers seemed as likely to end in defeat as any Roy Halladay start could. Miller Park is a tough venue for any visitor, and the Doc entered the game with a 1-2 record and 6.41 ERA against the Crew, including an ugly loss in Philadelphia back in April. Milwaukee starter Shaun Marcum, by comparison, came into the game 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in four career starts against the Phils, including a win earlier this season. An offspeed maven with superior command, Marcum nicely fits the profile of pitchers that frustrate the fastball-fixated Phils.

But whether from a hospitable impulse or a mental lapse, he came out tonight throwing fastballs, and they made him pay. With men at the corners and one out in the first inning, Ryan Howard got ahead 2-0 and deposited one high-80s heater into the second deck to put the Phils ahead 3-0. Marcum settled in after that, holding the Phillies off the board until they chased him with two more runs in the seventh to go up 5-0, but Howard's early blow--his third career homer off Marcum--gave the Phils a lead they would hold all the way through.

Halladay made sure of that, limiting the potent Brewers lineup to four hits and a run over his eight innings of work. Featuring a sharp curve early and his signature cutter all night long, Doc escaped one bases-loaded, one-out threat in the fourth by inducing a first-pitch double play grounder from Yuniesky Betancourt, then set the Brewers down in order the next two innings before yielding a run in the seventh on a Casey McGehee double, a groundout and a Betancourt sac fly. Halladay wound up striking out nine on the night, giving him 204 for the season. 

For those really determined to find something to worry about, thank Antonio Bastardo. Called on to finish off the 5-1 lead in the ninth, Bastardo allowed an 0-2 leadoff single to Prince Fielder, then walked McGehee. On came Ryan Madson, who got pinch-hitter Jerry Hairston Jr. to ground out on a super-close play at first.  Betancourt followed with a single to score Fielder, and McGehee came out on a Jonathan Lucroy sac fly. But pinch-hitter George Kottaras grounded out on the first pitch he saw, and the Phils had their 93rd win of the season. On September 9, please note. 

Fangraph GO!!!: 

via www.fangraphs.com

As the Braves and Phillies got underway Tuesday night following a rain delay of about two hours, television spectators saw something far out of the ordinary at Citizens Bank Park: empty seats. The combination of miserable conditions and a September game between playoff-bound teams about as devoid of consequence as possible limited the Bank to something less than half capacity; the organization itself acknowledged as much by announcing during the game that tickets for tonight's contest could be exchanged for a seat at selected games in 2012--whether or not you used them tonight. But with negative off-days on the schedule, the teams were determined to get this one in, and despite the rain never really letting up, they wound up playing nine. 

Fortunately, Vance Worley evidently is as much at home in the cold and rain of a September evening in Philadelphia as on a sweltering afternoon in Chicago, or most anywhere else. Facing potential early trouble with two on and one out in the first, Worley struck out Dan Uggla swinging and Chipper Jones looking, the first two of his six Ks on the night. With two outs in the bottom of the inning, Chase Utley put the Phils up 1-0 with his tenth home run of the season, and just his second since the start of August; the team tacked on a second run when Raul Ibanez notched the first of his three hits on the night to score Ryan Howard. 

Uggla cut the lead to 2-1 with a solo homer off Worley in the fourth, and the Braves tied it on an Alex Gonzalez sacrifice fly in the top of the sixth after Worley loaded the bases with none out. But the rookie right-hander escaped without further damage, and found himself in line for the win when the Phils added a pair of runs off Tim Hudson, the second coming on an Ibanez double. The Braves pulled within a run again off Michael Stutes in the seventh, thanks mostly to the speed of Michael Bourn; the former Phillie doubled to lead off, stole third with one out and scored on an Uggla fielder's choice. But Stutes induced a flyout from Jones to escape further trouble, and the Phils plated two more in the bottom of the inning to create some comfort. Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson closed things out.

The win was the Phillies' 90th of the season, marking the first time in club history they've won at least 90 in four straight seasons. Good times. Good Fangraph:

via www.fangraphs.com

There was a time when I loathed and feared the Florida Marlins. Say the names Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo in the same sentence, and I'll flinch like someone's about to punch me--because those two speedy little bastards did, repeatedly, in 2003. Jeff Conine's brief stint with the 2006 Phillies was morally wrenching for me; for years I had to be restrained from kicking old guys who look like Jack McKeon--and let's face it, a lot of old guys look like Jack McKeon. 

But watching tonight's game, between a Phillies team headed for its greatest regular season ever and cruising toward a playoff spot and a Marlins club buried in last place, missing signature players Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson, and playing in front of a few thousand fans at most--among whom, by the sound of it, about half were cheering for the Phils--in an utterly charmless stadium made for football, I realized I have absolutely no hate for the Marlins right now; just pity. It has to be sheer misery playing for that team, and a whole other level of existential horror to follow them as a fan.

Losses like tonight's won't help much, though a determined optimist could find something positive in the performance of 21 year-old rookie lefty Brad Hand.  After allowing a leadoff triple to Shane Victorino, who came around to score on a Placido Polanco sacrifice fly, Hand didn't surrender another hit until the fifth. That hit, though, was a two-run homer by John Mayberry, Jr, which followed an Emilio Bonifacio error that had put Hunter Pence on first. The bomb gave the Phillies a 3-2 lead that they didn't relinquish; Mayberry drove in another run an inning later on a sacrifice fly, and after Florida pulled within 4-3 in the bottom of the sixth, the Phils added another in the seventh after a sequence of Marlins miscues. Victorino led off the inning with a single and went to second when Mike Stanton couldn't field the ball cleanly. He moved to third on a Polanco groundout and scored on a Ryan Webb wild pitch. 

A week after beating Roy Oswalt in Philadelphia (and possibly reopening the Oswalt-vs.-Vance Worley debate concerning the playoff rotation), the Marlins looked like they might smack around Li'l Roy again in south Florida. Five of the first seven Marlins hitters reached base, and they tied the score at 1 in the first when Bonifacio scored on a Greg Dobbs double play. Florida went ahead 2-1 in the third when Omar Infante led off with a double and scored on Stanton's groundout two batters later. From then on, though, Oswalt found a groove, retiring nine straight until Jose Lopez homered with two outs in the sixth to make it 4-3. He finished the night with seven strikeouts in his 6.1 innings. 

The bullpen did the rest, with Michael Stutes, Antonio Bastardo and Ryan Madson recording the last eight outs. The win brought the Phillies to 88-46 on the season, putting the team 42 games over .500 for the first time in the team's 129 year history. Meanwhile, the Marlins absorbed another defeat on the way to another losing season, waiting with hope and impatience at the new stadium in which they'll take residence next spring, and from which they'll attempt to again merit hate and despair on the part of other teams' fans. 

Hold for Fangraph: 

via www.fangraphs.com

Though no team would choose to run the gauntlet of 33 games in 31 days, running through the end of the season, that the Phillies will begin Monday in Cincinnati, in one sense the timing is decent: rosters expand on Thursday, meaning that Charlie Manuel will have more players to carry the work of playing all those games.

Facing both the need to keep a veteran team fresh for the playoffs and an opportunity to see players whose performance will impact roster decisions for next season, and with a very comfortable lead for a playoff spot—15 games over the wild-card runners-up—the Phils could rely more on minor-league call-ups than often has been the case in past years. Let’s quickly run through who might show up in Philadelphia over the next week or two, as the minor-league season comes to an end. 

Catchers: Veteran minor-leaguer Erik Kratz isn’t on the 40-man roster—a problem we’ll look at below—but did get a cup of coffee with the Pirates in 2010 and is wrapping up a superb season (.291/.375/.474, 15 HR in 344 AB) at AAA Lehigh Valley. With Brian Schneider seeing his offensive production drop off, Kratz is a real possibility to back up Carlos Ruiz next season.

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This might not be saying much, but it’s probable the last week of play has been the least pleasant of the season for the Phillies in 2011. In addition to irritating rain delays and the even more annoying refusal on the part of the Braves to lose a friggin’ game, the Phils themselves have gone down to defeat three times in their last six games—and all in painful, come-from-ahead ninth-inning fashion. The streamlined baseball death machine that is the 2011 Phillies has spouted little plumes of smoke and leaked some oil.

Yet, notwithstanding that it just sucks to lose any game you’d seemingly all but won, I’m actually not sure that the positive elements of the last week don’t significantly outweigh the downside.

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Everyone can rest easy: the Phillies will not have a losing record in 2011.

The team claimed its 81st victory of the season against a frequent foil, Nationals starter John Lannan, who fell to 1-12 against the Phils for his career. The bigger deal by far, though, was the winning pitcher: Roy Oswalt, the Forgotten Ace. In his third start since returning from the disabled list, Li'l Roy broke out the 2010-vintage Good Stuff: eight innings, eight hits (seven singles), one walk, and a season-high nine strikeouts, all on an efficient 115 pitches. Li'l Roy might have been at his nastiest in the eighth inning, popping the gun at 93 as he registered his final two strikeouts.

The Phils got all the offense they needed in the fourth inning, scoring two unearned runs. John Mayberry, Jr., starting again in place of Raul Ibanez, singled with two outs but seemed to be caught off first base. Shortstop Ian Desmond couldn't handle the throw to second, however, and the inning continued. Carlos Ruiz drew a walk, and Wilson Valdez continued his shockingly strong hitting when up with runners in scoring position by depositing a two-run triple into right field. 

Hunter Pence stretched the lead to 3-0 with a solo homer off Lannan to lead off the sixth, his third since joining the Phillies. Jimmy Rollins knocked in the team's final two runs with a single off reliever Colin Balestar. Oswalt did the rest, backed up by a 1-2-3 frame from Michael Stutes in the ninth. 

Big Roy tomorrow against Chien-Ming Wang for the series win. Cue Fangraph: 

via www.fangraphs.com

The Phillies are now playing at a level of excellence almost sufficient to stay ahead of their most neurotic fans' worst anxieties. One night after a loss to the suddenly-plausible playoff opponent DIamondbacks that featured a grab-bag of possible downfall scenarios--inexplicably cold bats, a bad break or two and an ill-timed flash of mortality from ace of aces Roy Halladay--they regrouped behind another strong Cliff Lee start and a late offensive explosion to pummel Arizona and even this series at a game apiece.

This didn't seem certain early on. After Jimmy Rollins gave the Phils a 1-0 lead with a leadoff homer, the D'backs went ahead 2-1 in the second as Lee walked Chris Young and surrendered a two-run shot to rookie slugger Paul Goldschmidt. But after surrendering an infield single to pitcher Joe Saunders to start the third inning, Lee set down the next ten Arizona hitters he faced. He allowed two more base runners in the sixth and seventh, then promptly erased each with inning-ending double plays.

Meanwhile, the Phils tied it up at 2 off Saunders in the second on a Hunter Pence double and an RBI single from John Mayberry Jr. But the lefty then matched Lee zero for zero through the middle innings, until the Phillies finally took control in the home seventh. Pence led it off with a walk and went to third on a Mayberry single. Wilson Valdez scored them both with a deep fly to straightaway center that kept carrying for a double that chased Saunders, and came in two batters later on Ben Francisco's sac fly. The Phils scored four more in the eighth, and Antonio Bastardo and Ryan Madson finished things up without incident as the team improved to 79-42 for the season. If you're keeping track, that leaves the 2011 club one game behind their 1976 forebears in the race for the franchise's single season win record. 

Vance Worley opposes 15-game winner Ian Kennedy in the series finale tomorrow night. Happy happy Fangraph: 

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How best to describe getting beaten by Livan Hernandez? Is it like rejection at the hands of a girl you went in thinking you're too good for? Drowning in a vat of room-temperature pudding? Trying to do a yo-yo trick and knocking yourself unconscious? 

Whatever your preferred analogy, the Phillies lived it Friday night, enduring one inning after another without managing to hit the zaftig veteran's Moyeresque assortment of misnamed fastballs and breaking stuff. He particularly bedeviled Hunter Pence, twice striking out the Phils' new rightfielder before inducing a double play from him for the last two outs Hernadez recorded. Livan added injury to insult by driving in more runs (two) than he allowed in his 6 2/3 innings, on two singles.

The first was off Cole Hamels, who followed up his complete-game gem against the Giants last Saturday with something rather more forgettable: five innings, six hits, three runs, a season-high four walks, all on 88 pitches. His fastball velocity was notably down, with Todd Zolecki tweeting that Hamels' fastball on the night averaged almost three miles slower than his season average. (He later reported that Hamels is going through a dead-arm period.) The best that can be said for Hamels, and it's not nothing, is that he kept the team in the game anyway: facing a bases-loaded, no-out jam in the fifth inning with the team already trailing 2-1, he got Jonny Gomes to fly out to shallow right, allowed one run on a Jayson Werth groundout that wasn't hit hard enough to start a double play, and struck out Wilson Ramos. 

Yet that third run proved to be enough. Hernandez was ably relieved by Tyler Clippard through the eighth. Nationals closer Drew Storen came on for the last inning, and promptly found himself in trouble when Shane Victorino and Chase Utley started the inning with singles. Storen recovered to strike out Ryan Howard, got a flyout from Pence that scored Victorino, and popped up Raul Ibanez to end things. 

The obvious lesson here is that the Phillies should play every single friggin' day. Record in pre-off day stretch of 20 games in 20 days: 16-4. Record since off day? 0-1. Is it too late to sell? 

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The Moneyball-era baseball truism holds that in a six-month season, a team spends the first two months figuring out what it has, the middle two getting what it needs, and the last two going all-out to win. This construct doesn’t quite fit, however, for teams like the 2011 Phillies. The talent on hand at the season's start probably exceeded both that of any other of the 29 teams and any of the previous 128 collections of Phillies. As of mid-summer, they didn’t "need" anything to accomplish everything possible in the 162-game regular season; love it or hate it, the Hunter Pence trade happened primarily for the postseason and secondarily for 2012-13. And while nobody who remembers 2007 should feel absolute confidence in a seven-game lead when there are more than seven games left to play, the odds of playoff baseball in Philadelphia this autumn are pretty favorable. (It helps that the Phils’ actual lead for a playoff spot—their margin over the second-place team in the wild card race—is ten games at the moment.)

Needless to say, it’s a pleasure to watch the most ridiculously loaded Phillies team… well, ever. When else has the club had four pitchers who could legitimately start Game One of a playoff series, or three who could come on to close it out? When the lineup includes only four or five all-stars, rather than the accustomed seven, there’s an instinct to complain. At this writing, the team has lost back to back games exactly once in the last two months. It’s become a truism to say that this is the greatest era in team history, but beyond that, they’ve actually spoiled us with their near-universal awesomeness.

So what can they give the fans who have everything? What should we be thinking about and watching for over the next two months? 

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Hours after the defending World Series champion Giants snagged the biggest known prize on the trade market in outfielder Carlos Beltran, they turned aside the Phillies with a victory that perfectly followed their 2010 script: superlative pitching supported by just enough offense. Matt Cain was the star for San Francisco, limiting the Phils to four hits and one unearned run, inducing soft contact again and again over seven-plus innings, and never facing a serious threat despite registering just one strikeout. 

A third-inning RBI triple by former Phillie Aaron Rowand plated the game's first run and sent Cole Hamels on the way to another hard-luck loss. Hamels wound up going 7 2/3 innings, surrendering a second run in the top of the seventh when Jeff Keppinger, the Giants' other big trade pickup (and a guy who would have been a fine addition to the Phils' roster), led off with a double and, after a walk to Cody Ross, scored on a sinking liner hit by Nate Schierholtz that Domonic Brown could neither catch nor block. Hamels followed by hitting Eli Whiteside with a pitch, but escaped the bases-loaded, no-out jam by popping up Cain and getting a double play grounder from Rowand. 

The Phils scored their lone run in the bottom of the inning. Whiteside and Cain collided on a Shane Victorino pop up that fell to the ground and left Victorino at second. Following a Raul Ibanez popup, Brown cracked a grounder that took a crazy hop over the head of first baseman Aubrey Huff into right field, scoring Victorino. But Cain induced a double play from Carlos Ruiz that quelled the threat, and the Phillies didn't seriously threaten again. 

Their streak of eight straight series victories now rests in the hands of Kyle Kendrick, who will start the finale against either Tim Lincecum, if he's finally stopped up, or former Phils farmhand-turned-all-star Ryan Vogelsong. Beltran is expected to be in the lineup. DUNT DUNT DUMMMMM!!!!

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It’s pretty rare that I take issue with Charlie Manuel. The guy’s got his critics, but to me it’s clear he’s the greatest manager in Phillies history, and if he wins two more championships—admittedly a huge "if"—I wouldn’t be shocked to see him one day follow his former boss Pat Gillick into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Heady stuff for a guy whose hiring seven years ago was greeted with derision, and was perceived to be a dead manager walking pretty much right up to the moment when the Phils claimed the 2007 NL East title. 

If there’s one criticism of Manuel I buy into, though, it’s that he sometimes sticks with "his guys" too long. This stems in part from loyalty—a generally admirable trait that helps explain why hitters like Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez have shook off terrible starts to make big contributions down the stretch in a few different seasons—and in part from what seems to be a sense that things go better when "guys know their roles." So it was likely to be an interesting ride when Manuel began the 2011 season with Brad Lidge on the DL and no set closer in place.

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen as tight an entanglement of bad luck with good as what happened next. Jose Contreras started the year as The Man in the ninth inning, converted every save opportunity that came his way… and got hurt. That gave Ryan Madson another shot at the Scarlet C after a two-plus year flirtation with the role--and this time he got on it like Bill Conlin (hey, congrats Bill!) on a free buffet, locking down save after save… until he got hurt. The next man in line was Antonio Bastardo, who completed his stunning ascent from borderline major-leaguer to reliable lefty-slayer to all-purpose setup badass to unhittable closer, converting all seven of his save opportunities to date. (Before this weekend, when his Saturday hiccup against the Padres put a dent in his numbers, Bastardo’s ERA+ for the season was an unfathomable 385; for context, Mariano Rivera’s best ever full-season mark was 319.)

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Maybe it's not totally Kyle Kendrick's fault. When you get to watch Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels three days out of every five, you're going to cast a jaundiced eye on the performance of lesser pitchers. And Kendrick, for all the ugliness of how he gets it done, now boasts a 40-28 career record in the major leagues. 

Which isn't to say it's fun to watch. Just in the first three innings, Kendrick surrendered four hits, including two doubles, plus two walks, and the Mets had runners in scoring position each frame. Yet none of them came across, as Kendrick twice added to Jason Bay's nightmares by twice inducing New York's $70 million mistake to ground out, ending the first and third innings. (Bay finished 0 for 4 and dropped a Ryan Howard fly ball that began what turned into a three-run Phillies inning in the eighth.) Kendrick then retired nine of the next ten batters, finally allowing one run in the seventh inning before departing with a 5-1 lead. Kendrick threw 109 pitches, allowing six hits (three doubles) and three walks; he registered zero strikeouts. For his career, Kendrick has an ERA around 3 against the Mets in 13 games despite having more walks than Ks. 

He won this one thanks largely to the single most unlikely thing I've seen this season: Michael Martinez homering at Citi Field. With the Phils leading 1-0 in the fifth, Mini-Mart came to the plate after back-to-back singles from Kendrick (who had two hits on the day) and Jimmy Rollins. He got ahead of Mike Pelfrey, then slammed a hanger just over the wall in right field to stretch the lead to 4-0. Martinez added a sac fly two innings later to make it 5-0. 

After the Phillies seemingly put the game away with three runs in the top of the eighth on a bases-loaded walk to Ross Gload and a two-run single from Rollins, the bullpen made it a game again with a performance that had Phillies fans pining for Kendrick. Juan Perez restored a degree of cosmic balance after his immaculate inning shortly before the all-star break by walking the first three Mets in the bottom of the eighth. Ryan Madson seemed to douse the threat by getting a double play from Lucas Duda, the first man he faced, but then surrendered an RBI single to Ronnie Paulino that made it 8-3, hit Ruben Tejada with a pitch, walked Nick Evans to reload the bases, and gave up an RBI single to Angel Pagan. With the score 8-4 and Jason Turner at the plate representing the tying run, Madson gave way to Antonio Bastardo--who finally registered the Phillies' first strikeout of the day, after seven walks, to end the rally.

Bastardo saw the epic 0 for 39 he'd put up against opposing hitters end in the ninth, as Daniel Murphy doubled after a long at-bat and came in two batters later on Duda's triple. But Martinez made a fine play on Paulino's grounder to end it, and the Phillies had their seventh straight series win.  

Now, let us never speak of this game again. 

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Ryan Howard seems well on his way to completing the lamentable Philadelphia sports journey from savior to scapegoat. He’s now in his 30s, his numbers have fallen off pretty sharply from the great heights of a Rookie of the Year award in his first season and an MVP in his second, and he strikes out a lot. What’s really likely to put him in the crosshairs is that starting in 2012, he’ll be working on a mammoth contract that’s been prejudged by smart baseball writers like Joe Posnanski and Rob Neyer as maybe the worst in baseball.

It’s true that the contract might well prove disastrous. Howard’s body type isn’t the sort that ages well, and the deal could be a triple whammy in that it expends far more money than Howard’s production is likely to justify, exerts an opportunity cost for spending elsewhere on the roster and fills a position at which offensive production can come cheap. (Imagine if, in August 2013, the Phillies are trailing the Nationals or Braves by three games, Howard’s hitting .250/.330/.440, and Jon Singleton is laying waste to the International League… for another team’s affiliate.)

In 2011, however, Howard is having a much better season than you’d think just given his relatively pedestrian numbers (.257/.353/.475). And—sorry, One-Chair—his RBI total doesn't have much to do with it.

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Through the first two games of this series, it would have been hard for even the staunchest partisan of either the Braves or Phillies to argue there was much difference or distance between the NL’s top two teams. Through two stomach-churning high-drama extra-inning games, we’d seen four great starting pitching performances with no decisions attached to any of them; up-and-down bullpen work on both sides; occasional bursts of power; and one win each. As of early Sunday afternoon, all that effort had left the teams right where they started: with the Phillies holding a 2 ½ game lead in the NL East.

A few hours later, after the Phils got yet another brilliant performance from Cole Hamels and their injury-reduced lineup cranked out a season-high 20 hits, the lead was back to 3 ½, and at least for a day, the gap between the teams seemed considerably larger as the Phillies sent the Atlanta staggering into the all-star break on the receiving end of a 14-1 loss.  Clickety ho!

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By now you've heard that Phillies lefty reliever Juan Perez did something pretty unusual last night: he struck out three straight Braves batters--Jason Heyward, Nate McLouth, and Wilkin Ramirez--on nine pitches in the top of the 10th inning. As Perez got to five straight strikes, then six, it occurred to me I might be about to see something I hadn't seen through thousands of baseball games watched over more than thirty years... but I didn't realize quite how rare was Perez's accomplishment. Turns out his "immaculate inning" is only the 46th in baseball history. By contrast, there have been 271 no-hitters thrown since records were kept. 

As noted in the game recap, Perez is the first Phillie to accomplish the feat since Andy Ashby did it in his second major-league start against the Reds in June 1991. (The Reds were on the receiving end of another one two and a half months later, though it's slightly less shameful to have a young David Cone do it to you than Ashby.) Before Ashby, no Phillie had ever struck out the side on nine pitches, though Rube Waddell had done it once and Lefty Grove twice for the Philadelphia Athletics. 

Perhaps not surprisingly, the Phils have had it done to them on a few occasions over their checkered history: in fact, the first immaculate inning on record was thrown against the Philadelphia Quakers, as the Phils were then known, in 1889. The team was nine-pitch whiffed again in 1921, 1971, 1991, and most recently in 2002 by Diamondbacks reliever Byung-Hyun Kim, which I think might have been when I started referring to that pitcher as "Butthole Kid." Those five occasions are the most of any club, though the Marlins have had it done to them three times in 114 fewer seasons of play. 

If Perez isn't the most obscure pitcher to accomplish the feat, he's damn close. The list includes Hall of Famers Waddell, Grove (twice), Dazzy Vance, Jim Bunning, Sandy Koufax (twice), Nolan Ryan (twice), Bob Gibson, and Bruce Sutter, plus future Hall of Famers Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez and well known stars like Cone, Ron Guidry, and Milt Pappas. Perez is the first pitcher to do it in his first major-league win.

Career highlight? Yeah, probably. The guy is 32, after all, and isn't known for his control. But if nothing else, he goes into Phillies lore as the answer to a great trivia question and creator of a fantastic memory in a big win.  

After a rain delay of nearly two hours, the Phillies and Braves turned in a game fully worth the wait: low scoring, great pitching, and improbable late heroics for the home team. The upshot was a dramatic extra-innings win that assured the Phils would hit the all-star break two days hence with their NL East lead intact.  

Roy Halladay waited out the rain with no immediate ill effects, mowing the Braves down 1-2-3 in the first. But he looked positively un-Doc-like to start the second, surrendering back to back hits to Larry Jones Jr. and Freddie Freeman around a Carlos Ruiz passed ball that gave Atlanta a 1-0 lead. But after firing a wild pitch that moved Freeman to second, Halladay avoided further damage. The Phillies quickly tied it in the bottom of the second against Brandon Beachy as Raul Ibanez and Ruiz singled and, after a Domonic Brown strikeout, Wilson Valdez brought in Ibanez with a sacrifice fly. The teams traded runs again in the fourth, as the Braves cashed in one from a second-and-third, no out threat before Halladay escaped and Ruiz lined a solo homer to left.

There it stayed, as Halladay locked in and the Phillies threatened a couple more times against Beachy, to no avail. The Braves unleashed their Deadly Bullpen of Death--seriously, these guys are good, but I'm sick of hearing about them--in the seventh, as Eric O'Flaherty tossed a scoreless frame and fellow lefty Jonny Venters worked around a hit and a walk in the eighth. The Phillies turned to their last remaining reliable relievers, and Michael Stutes and Antonio Bastardo each tossed clean innings. But when the Phils couldn't score in the ninth against the sounds-like-a-'70s-lounge-act veteran combo of Scott Linebrink and George Sherrill, it looked like the Braves had the edge going into extras. 

Then... HE appeared. I refer of course to lefty assassin Juan Perez, who did something no Phillie pitcher had accomplished in twenty years: strike out the side on nine pitches. Lefties Jason Heyward and Nate McLouth took some of the ass-ugliest no-contact swings you'll ever see, and righty pinch-hitter WIlkin Ramirez looked less sad but reached the same result. (The last Phillie to do this? Andy Ashby, against the Reds on June 15, 1991, in his second big-league start. The Phillies lost the game. Perez already has assured himself a greater Phillies career, though admittedly that's a low freakin' bar.) 

Ibanez got Perez his first major-league win in the bottom of the inning, when he slammed a no-doubter home run--his first walkoff shot since April 2009--to right off Atlanta reliever Scott Proctor, whom the Phillies surely were happier to see than closer Craig Kimbrel. Gotta love "The Book."

This one lived up to its billing. Tomorrow features another fine mound matchup as Cliff Lee goes for the Phillies against the Braves' Tommy Hanson. 

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This one looked pretty comfortable: a 4-0 Phillies lead through two innings, with Cliff Lee on the mound in his first July start following a June for the ages, facing a Blue Jays pitcher, Jo-Jo Reyes, best known for the historical scarcity of his victories.  But Lee lost first his scoreless innings streak, then the comfortable lead, and finally the game as Toronto unleashed a late barrage of home runs to avoid a sweep at the hands of the visiting Phils.

The second-inning four-spot began with one out, when Shane Victorino began what would be a very adventurous day with a double and scored on Ben Francisco's single up the middle. Francisco advanced to second on a Domonic Brown single and came in on a Carlos Ruiz ground-rule double. After Wilson Valdez fouled out, Jimmy Rollins singled in both runs, and a million Philadelphians probably put this one in the win column after Lee struck out the side in the bottom of the inning. 

But his scoreless streak ended an inning later, when Rajai Davis led off with a triple and came in on a John McDonald groundout. Meanwhile the Phillies stranded one runner in the third and two in the fifth. Davis basically made another run for himself in the fifth, singling with one out and stealing second and third with two before scoring on an Aaron Hill single. The Phils stranded another man in the sixth, and Toronto pulled within 4-3 in the bottom of the inning when Jose Bautista walked, advanced to third on an Adam Lind bloop to left that Ben Francisco misread off the bat, and came in on an Edwin Encarnacion flyout to shallow center that Victorino caught and got ready to fire home, where he'd have had a play, before getting his foot snared in the Rogers Centre turf and falling on his face. Lee escaped without further damage, registering his ninth strikeout to end the inning. 

The Phillies squandered one last opportunity in the top of the eighth, when Victorino hit a ground rule double with one out. But he was picked off second by reliever Octavio Dotel, who promptly surrendered a double to pinch-hitter Raul Ibanez on which Shane could have crawled home. Then in the bottom of the inning, the roof fell in: Eric Thames clubbed Lee's first pich for a game-tying home run, and Bautista followed with a majestic solo shot. Lind singled, and after Juan Rivera flied out, Encarnacion ended Lee's day with a two-run bomb.

Lee's day was somewhat reminiscent of his early-season "struggles," in which he racked up big strikeout numbers but was prone to the big hit. Given the hot turf, it's reasonable to wonder if he'd have stayed in to face the heart of the Blue Jays lineup were the bullpen less depleted by injury; in any event, the abrupt reversal of fortune reminded us both that nothing in this game can be taken for granted, and that for all their strengths, the Phillies probably need better at-bats with men on and some healthy arms in the bullpen if they're to fulfill the potential of the best rotation they've ever had. 

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