SB Nation User Blog: dajafi

Four Last (?) Thoughts on the Halladay/Lee Trades

dajafi — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 03:57:20 -0000

1 day ago: New Philadelphia Phillies baseball pitcher Roy Halladay, right, makes remarks during a baseball news conference as Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. looks on in Philadelphia, Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2009. Halladay was traded to the Phillies on Wednesday in part of a four-team trade that sent Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

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I’m struggling to put a cap on this week’s stunning turn of events: one Cy Young Award winner out the door, another coming in, a transfusion of high-ceiling young talent, and the avowal of arguably the best pitcher in the game that coming to Philadelphia to play baseball was "a dream come true"—a sentiment he backed up by leaving tens of millions of dollars on the table in return for the privilege of joining the Phillies. Simultaneously I’m exhausted by this story and still finding new aspects of it that are nothing short of staggering.

So I’m going to try to articulate some of these thoughts, and then shut up about it for awhile. Maybe.

The Circle is Now Complete. In the span of two years toward the beginning of this decade, Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen—the Phillies’ two signature players as of 2000—talked their way out of town. Both blasted the organization as insufficiently committed to winning; Schilling thought the Phils were cheap, and Rolen additionally hated the manager, the stadium and the fans, if not the city itself. Much more often than not, players with limited no-trade clauses listed the Phils among the teams to which they would under no circumstances approve a deal. The team began to turn that perception around when they signed Jim Thome as a free agent just months after trading Rolen—but they had to massively overpay the slugging first baseman compared to other offers for him. Now, after seven years of winning records and perennial contender status, three straight division titles, two straight pennants and one world championship, they might be the premier destination in the game: terrific clubhouse, passionate (but supportive!) and loyal fan base, gem of a ballpark, demonstrated commitment to winning. For anyone who’s been a fan since the late ‘90s, it’s almost unfathomable—and pays back with interest all the pain from those days.
Prudent or Insecure?: Like most here, I would have preferred to keep both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee for 2010. If that meant "gutting the system" for the time being, fine—though I don’t think it necessarily would have. (Remember too that the price tag in prospects for Halladay was steeper since the Blue Jays included that $6 million; dealing away the likes of Joe Blanton and Shane Victorino for whatever return they might yield, and non-tendering useless Chad Durbin, just about would have covered Halladay’s 2010 price tag, and that doesn’t even contemplate the possibility that he would have deferred a million of two of that money to future seasons if asked.) But even if the Toronto deal went through exactly as it did, the team would have retained top prospect Domonic Brown, more than a half-dozen nearly ready pitchers in the upper levels of the minors (Antonio Bastardo, Joe Savery, Yohan Flande, Sergio Escalona, Drew Carpenter, Vance Worley, Scott Mathieson, et al), and high-ceiling younger prospects like Sebastian Valle, Anthony Gose, Trevor May, Jared Cosart and Domingo Santana. Granted, the three former Seattle prospects should be ready to contribute in the majors by 2012 or so, as that younger cohort won’t be (and as Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor would have). But it wasn’t a stripped system without them. I keep thinking that the Red Sox or Yankees would have kept both aces, taken the short-term developmental hit, and committed either to doubling their draft budget for the next year or allocating new millions for international signings. That the Phils didn’t do this suggests that they still aren’t quite entirely self-identifying as a big-shot franchise that can surmount whatever obstacles emerge. Part of me sees this prudence as a big plus—it suggests they won’t turn into the Mets—while another part is just bummed that we don’t have the two aces (and still wonders if that was really the best possible deal out there for Lee).
There's No Crying in Hot Stove Baseball: Anyone who remembers the early ‘90s Phillies, particularly the 1993 pennant winner, has to be a bit stunned by the team’s decision to cut ties with Cliff Lee. (As Lee was himself, it turns out.) What Lee did in his first post-season run was astounding, every bit the equal and then some of what Cole Hamels accomplished in October a year earlier. He was an instant Phillies legend—and six weeks later, he was a Seattle Mariner. Compare this to the sweetheart contracts the Phils gave Darren Daulton and Lenny Dykstra, both on the wrong side of 30 with extensive injury histories, after 1993; sentiment, specifically that of ownership front man/buffoon Bill Giles, drove those deals. Ruben Amaro Jr., though, evidently has his blood set at a much lower temperature. Again, this is a good thing—and, more than anything else, it should represent the last shovelful of dirt on the notion that these are in any respect the "same old Phillies."
An End, or a Beginning? It’s worth thinking about why Halladay fixated on the Phillies as the team he wanted to join so much that he took millions less than he might have claimed as a free agent. The results, yes: this is the most successful team in baseball over the last three seasons. But it’s the same set of factors that evidently so impressed Lee when he joined the team: "an ‘unbelievable’ lineup and excellence from top to bottom in Philadelphia’s organization." That’s Amaro in his relentless commitment to making the team a champion; that’s Charlie Manuel in his support for the players and his steady hand at the tiller; that’s Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard and the guys brought in around them who take cues from the leaders, ballplayers who match great talent with even greater desire. That’s Citizens Bank Park, which now confers a home-field advantage equal to that enjoyed by any great team in any great ballyard, and the fans who fill it night after night. The distance this franchise has traveled in the years since Schilling and Rolen pulled their parachute cords is just staggering, and Halladay’s arrival is just the latest validation of what the Phillies have accomplished.

Halladay/Lee Trades in Peril?

dajafi — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:01:42 -0000

Halladay/Lee Trades in Peril?

Toronto Sun reporter Bob Elliott tweets that someone involved in one of the deals flunked a physical, potentially throwing everything into chaos. So long as it doesn't come out that we trade Lee without getting Halladay, this actually could be a good thing...

359 days ago...

dajafi — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:17:10 -0000

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus published his list of the Phillies' top 11 prospects, as follows:

Carlos Carrasco RHP
Michael Taylor OF
Kyle Drabek RHP
Travis D'Arnaud C
Lou Marson C
Jason Donald SS
Dominic [sic] Brown OF
J.A. Happ LHP
Zach Collier OF
Jason Knapp RHP
Anthony Hewitt 3B

Of that list, the first six (and seven of the first ten) are gone through trades for Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, one has graduated to the majors, and two have seen their prospect status take a bit hit. Even considering how quickly minor leaguers' stock can rise and fall, that's a hell of a lot of change.

Yet it wouldn't be accurate to draw the conclusion that the Phillies have gutted their system. Goldstein had Domonic Brown (as we now know is his actual name) as a three-star prospect in December 2008; when he posts his new list in January or February, I'll be very surprised if Brown doesn't earn five stars and sit at the top of the list. And while Collier and Hewitt lost considerable luster in 2009, neither can drink legally yet; one or both easily could bounce back. Meanwhile, the Phils added exciting position-player talents in the last calendar year in teenagers Domingo Santana and Jon Singleton; outfielder Anthony Gose vaulted ahead of Collier and Hewitt (who was converted to the outfield during Florida Instructional League after posting a sub-.850 fielding percentage at third base); Sebastian Valle emerged as a legit hitting prospect behind the plate; pitchers Yohan Flande, Trevor May, Jared Cosart, Jesus Sanchez, and Brody Colvin all stepped forward; and the team will replenish some of what they're sending to the Blue Jays for Halladay with former Mariners farmhands Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and J.C. Ramirez, all of whom will rank in the top handful of Phillies prospects.

So what's the point? Just that, while it's a bit disconcerting to realize that in some sense the system has been decapitated over the last calendar year, in no respect is it headless. The franchise isn't gutted, the future hasn't been sold off; even as high-ceiling talent goes out the front door, more comes in through the side and the back. Player development has two important components: drafting and trading wisely, and guiding the growth and improvement of the raw talent acquired. The Phillies' recent organizational track record in both is pretty impressive, and that should lessen the sting of losing even top prospects like Drabek and Taylor.

The best analysis of the Halladay/Lee trades

dajafi — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 18:16:55 -0000

The best analysis of the Halladay/Lee trades

You're probably familiar with Phuture Phillies, but if not--or if so--give this a few minutes of your time. It takes apart the deal from every angle, including in-depth analysis of the Mariners prospects coming back for Lee. Really superlative work.

Halladay/Lee: Makes No Sense At All

dajafi — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 06:10:09 -0000

Go back to around noon Monday, and two rationales and scenarios in which the Phillies trade for Roy Halladay seem more or less plausible:

Rationale: put together a super-rotation for 2010 fronted by Halladay and Cliff Lee. Scenario: Phils give up a quality package of prospects and take certain cost-cutting measures, e.g. trading Joe Blanton in a straight salary dump
Rationale: ensure that you have an ace beyond 2010 without having to give up much in the way of prospects. Scenario: trade Cliff Lee for prospects to flip to the Blue Jays, adding maybe a second-tier guy at most, and to free up payroll

But the upshot of the rumors we're hearing--effectively, Lee plus three of our best four prospects for Halladay, a few million bucks, and two or three guys from the bottom half of the Mariners' top ten prospects--is that the Phils will have made a slightly better than lateral move for 2010, depending on how you feel about Halladay vs. Lee, and weakened themselves beyond that through the swap of projected stars like Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor for guys more likely to be marginal contributors like Phillippe Aumont (a relief pitcher) and Tyson Gillies (a third or fourth OF).

The only clear "win" is having Halladay at what seems like a team-friendly contract beyond 2010. That's a big deal, to be sure, but given Halladay's reported preference for the Phillies, it's very possible they could have obtained that outcome while either keeping Lee or their prospects. Remember, Johan Santana wasn't traded until February 2008; the Phils' leverage would have been stronger in a month or two, not weaker.

That Amaro has characterized himself as a "bird in hand" guy makes me worry that some variant of the upsetting reports is true--that the combination of his impatience and the atrociously short-sighted "$140 MILLION OR DEATH!" diktat of ownership (would it really have been so awful to have Lee one more year at a bargain price? I understand revenues from a championship can be pretty sweet) led to a splashy but awful deal.

That the deal is pretty clearly worse than what Amaro could have done to get Halladay five months ago, when he had much less leverage, gives me some hope that either the reports are erroneous or that the team knows something about the Mariners prospects coming back that we don't.

At any rate, I'm exhausted and somewhat depressed by this whole thing. Hopefully we wake up to better news.

Phils Invite Seven to Spring Training

dajafi — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 05:01:07 -0000

Phils Invite Seven to Spring Training

Well, seven so far--usually the non-roster invites pile up as the winter wears on. This first bunch includes two returnees, C Paul Hoover and 1b/3b Andy Tracy; recent pickups OF DeWayne Wise and 2b/ss Wilson Valdez; ex-Yankee utilityman Cody Ransom as well as outfielder Chris Duffy and lefty pitcher Bill White.

Happy Halladays After All?

dajafi — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:23:55 -0000

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

Ace righty Roy Halladay could yet land under the Phillies' tree this winter. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Frank Gunn)

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I don't mean to alarm anyone, but the Yankees' big trade yesterday for Curtis Granderson just might put the Phillies in position to pull off that trade for Roy Halladay that we've all been asking from Santa and Hanukkah Harry.

As Todd Zolecki points out, the Phils still have the pieces to make a deal with the Toronto Blue Jays--all the players that former Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi asked after last summer (Domonic Brown, Kyle Drabek, J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose) and others from a system that Baseball America recently ranked fourth in MLB. The Phils wouldn't pay that price then, with the prospect of having Halladay for two playoff runs, so they won't do so now. But they might not have to, either; if things break right, they could be the last feasible trade partner for Toronto, leaving GM Ruben Amaro Jr. enormous leverage.

That's where the Yankee trade comes in. To pry Granderson loose from Detroit, the Bronx Bombers parted with three players who weren't key contributors when they beat the Phillies in the World Series, but did represent a big part of the organization's young depth: almost-ready outfielder Austin Jackson, starting pitcher Ian Kennedy and lefty reliever Phil Coke. Granderson's 2010 price tag is chump change by Yankee standards--$5.5 million--and he's due a reasonable $18.25 million for the following two seasons with a $13 million club option or $2 million buyout for 2013. Still, that's an obligation of some significance for a team supposedly looking to trim payroll slightly, still waiting on negotiations with vets Johnny Damon and Andy Pettitte and rumored to be kicking the tires on top free agent starter John Lackey. Between their payroll obligations, a relative paucity of prospects after catcher Jesus Montero and young big-league pitchers Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, and the likely in-division premium they'd have to pay in talent to make a deal with AL East foe Toronto, the Yankees suddenly look like a long shot to trade for Halladay.

And if they're out, the Red Sox might be, too.

This was the case two winters ago, when the Yanks and Sox were considered the leading contenders to trade for then-Twins ace Johan Santana. But it soon became clear that New York and Boston were more interested in keeping Santana from the other than paying the steep price in talent and dollars to bring him on board. Similarly, if the Yanks turn away from Halladay, Boston might do so as well: they already have a pretty darn good rotation front four in Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka, and likely don't want to part with either of their top prospects Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland plus Buchholz, then have to pay Halladay some $100 million to hang around for the next five years. Besides, baseball thinkers from Joe Sheehan to Bill Simmons argue that the team's needs and priorities lie elsewhere.

Those two AL East behemoths aren't the only other potential destinations: the two LA teams long have been rumored to be in Halladay too. But the Dodgers, wracked by their owner's divorce, pretty clearly can't afford him--evidently they felt they couldn't even risk Randy Wolf accepting arbitration. The Angels could, but it isn't clear they can match up with the Blue Jays on a trade and presumably their first goal will be to retain free-agent ace Lackey. If he signs elsewhere, we can worry about LA of Anaheim. It's also not clear that Halladay, who has a full no-trade clause he's reportedly said he'd waive for the Phils, Yankees and Red Sox, would allow a trade to a west coast team. (I'm guessing he would in the end, but that could be one more obstacle.)

That leaves the Phils, who can make a trade for Halladay and presumably could afford him (or Cliff Lee, but not both) long-term. The team's alleged $140 million budget for 2010 presents a problem, but that probably explains why they're supposedly shopping Joe Blanton (and FWIW, dealing Cupcakes to clear payroll space for Halladay is about a zillion times more palatable than doing so to afford Brandon Lyon). The biggest problem is that everything likely would have to happen at once: trading Blanton to free payroll and hopefully add a prospect or two, simultaneously with a deal for Halladay that might or might not include that prospect/s.

Baseball trades are tricky, and the degree of difficulty rises exponentially as additional teams get involved. But it's a reasonable guess that this the "groundwork" Amaro and his crew have been trying to lay in Indianapolis this week. And if it doesn't happen before the calendar flips, that's no reason to despair: Santana ultimately went to the Mets, for a package of prospects considerably less impressive than what the Phils sent to Cleveland for Lee, on February 2, 2008. By then, the Twins realized that their choices were to make that deal or watch the pitcher walk away after the '08 season for nothing more than picks in the next draft. This essentially is the scenario we're hoping for.

So it's something to keep in mind in the weeks and maybe months to come. And it's a lot more interesting than contemplating the uses of Ross Gload.

Winter Meetings: Phillies Storylines

dajafi — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:23:14 -0000

(Get it?)

Okay, that's not quite accurate: the Phillies probably will do something either this week in Indianapolis or in the next couple weeks, before baseball hibernates for the holidays. All reports are that they're looking to add a veteran reliever for high-leverage innings late in games, with Brandon Lyon the desired target if he reduces his demands (and Ruben Amaro obviously happy to telegraph this through media reports) and/or if Chan Ho Park can't be enticed back. Some trades likely are being kicked around, though the rumor that Joe Blanton might be on the block doesn't pass the smell test. As WholeCamels noted yesterday, Andy Martino daydreams in print (or pixels) about Roy Halladay.

But basically the team that takes the field next April is the team that left it in early November, incorporating the recent additions of Placido Polanco, Brian Schneider and Juan Castro. That the Phillies haven't made and aren't likely to make any earth-shaking moves is a bit boring--but that they really don't have to do so to contend for a title again next year is more than a little comforting.

Peanuthead II: The Return! Polanco signs with Phillies.

dajafi — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 15:49:50 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

2 months ago: Detroit Tigers second baseman Placido Polanco stretches for a single by Cleveland Indians shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera in the first inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2009, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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UPDATE (1:33 pm): It's official.

Sounds like the Phillies are closing in on a three-year deal to bring back Placido Polanco as their third baseman. Todd Zolecki puts the terms at three years, $18 million with a mutual option for a fourth year. Polanco, 34, won a Gold Glove for the Tigers last year--as a second baseman. He hit .285/.331/.396 in 2009, and is a .303 career hitter. Of course, Polanco played for the Phils in 2002-2005, coming aboard in the Scott Rolen deal and leaving three seasons later for Ugueth Urbina.

My first reaction here is despair--well, actually, it's self-flagellation for suggesting that it might be time to trust the Phillies. On its face, this just doesn't make a lot of sense: the team is about to overpay for the decline stage of a player with very little power or speed, being asked to shift positions no less--all while two clearly better options, Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre, remain on the market. That said, if both of those players receive deals for three years or longer, and get paid upwards of $10 million a year, the Polanco contract makes some sense. But those are big ifs, and even if true it doesn't make the Phils a better team on the field in 2010.

Four Minor Signings

dajafi — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 05:56:03 -0000

Four Minor Signings

Not huge news, but the Phillies have issued four non-roster invites to spring training: outfielder DeWayne Wise, infielders Wilson Valdez and Andy Tracy, and catcher Paul Hoover. Tracy and Hoover briefly played for the Phils in September; Wise spent 2009 with the White Sox, gaining notoriety for a spectacular catch that helped save a perfect game for Mark Buehrle in July, while Valdez filled a bench role for the Mets. If you're not sure what Juan Castro has over Valdez that got the older no-hit infield reserve a big-league deal, that makes two of us.