(Click HERE to see the first post with the list of all the players)
(Click HERE to see the second post with analysis of the top 10 players)

In my last installment of player analysis for the 2009 draft based on my statistical system, I will be analyzing players that I feel are of the most interest to Kings fans. One thing I've noticed about this draft is that there are a lot of very athletic players this year. It should be a fun draft class. Is it Thursday yet?

Remember, these are still just my opinions, I don't pretend to be any "expert" on these players. I am just expanding on the findings of my system and adding my two cents.

(Note: You can click on the player’s name (score and height also where applicable) to see a highlight video of that player.)

Continue reading this post »

INDIVIDUAL PLAYER ANALYSIS 

Below is my analysis of my system's findings for the top 10 ranked players. (Note: click on the player's names to see a YouTube highlight video of that player. Click on the player's score and height (where applicable) to see a different highlight video.)

Blake Griffin (103), 6'10" - Yes, I DID double check my numbers. Actually I have probably checked them about 10 fricken times. 103 does seem a BIT high but as we all know, the dude is a rebounding machine. 17.3 per game?? That's nuts. That's not all though. He also throws in a meager 27.3 points on 65.4% FG shooting. Yah. Fricken' nuts. All this as a 19 year old sophomore. He also gets huge props in my book for showing that he's not just a guy that is peaking early. His freshman season scored a 97 (which would have scored him at a 94.5 if he would have duplicated those stats this season) which shows that he is still improving at a good rate. Negatives? Well, height (and wingspan) is really the only thing you can statistically look to when comparing him to all other power forwards in history. Well that and the (major?) fact that he is no marksman from the 3-pt stripe. Of course you could also wish his blocks were over the average number of 1.4 per game. It will be interesting to see if he can carry his rebounding prowess to the NBA. It may take a few years, but by the time he is 24 or 25, I think he will be at the point where we will know for sure just how good he really is.

Ricky Rubio (99.5), 6'4" - An extraordinary passer. Amazing court vision, flair and ball-handling ability. By far the best assist numbers in the draft at 10.6 (6.1/23 minutes) per game with ACB in Spain. That is phenomenal. His scoring average of 17.4 is nothing to complain about either for an 18 year old point guard. 4.5 rebounds per game shows he is willing to go into the paint and hustle. He actually has a career rebound average of nearly 6 per game. His steal rate of 3.8 this season is as amazing as his career 4.76 steals per game average. His game has been improving every year in three critical areas: points per game (12.5, 10.1, 18.2 and 17.4), assist average (4.8, 4.8, 7.0 and 10.6) and assist/turnover ratio (0.9, 1.8, 1.9 and 2.0). He still does turn the ball over a bit too much and shoots a slightly alarming 40.8% career FG shooting which is not showing any improvement.

Tyreke Evans (99), 6'5" - Terrible assist/turnover rate (1.08), 3-pt% (27.4) and...and......well, that's just about it. He's a freshman? Really? He's actually an "old" freshman at 19 already so I guess you could say he's a freshmore. Statistically I am super impressed with his ability to score 23.6 points per game while shooting ¼ of his shots from 3-pt range at 27%. He is obviously a scorer first and not a "true point guard" but his assist average of 5.4 is actually better than average for a shooting guard. Much better than average. For a point guard however, that number is not very impressive. There is no doubt that with Evans, you are getting a scorer first but he shows enough point guard skills to play the position competently. 2.9 steals and 1.1 blocks per game is also way above average for a combo guard. I haven't even mentioned his 7.4 rebounds a game. He's a freshman? Seriously though, I don't know how many NBA teams where Evans will flourish in. He needs the ball in his hands a LOT to be effective, but he is usually looking to score, not set up teammates. Only a team that's willing to be run by a "point-shooting guard" will allow Evans to play to his strengths so any team with an established point guard will probably not work for him.

Ty Lawson (98), 5'11" - Please see my post called "The Case for Ty Lawson" if you haven't already.

*Update* - Due to his combine results, he has dropped to 98 score.

James Harden (94.5), 6'5" - Solid. Really no major weaknesses. Rates strongly in points (22.5), assists (4.7), and free throw attempts (8.6) per game for a shooting guard. Just a bit above average in FG shooting and steals at 49% and 1.8 respectively. The only negative I can even come up with is that he did not improve on his freshman year in a large way. In fact if he would have come out last year, his score would have been a 96.5. I have seen this before though and the reason is probably because defenses this season really started keying in on stopping Harden. I am expecting a great career from JH13.

Stephen Curry (93.5), 6'3" - To me, of all the players in this year's draft, Curry is the most fascinating on a statistical level. He is a lights-out scorer (33.9) who throws up tons of shots. A prolific 3-pt shooter: half his FG attempts are threes with a career percentage of 41.4. After last year, his running mate Jason Richards leaves and he is stuck with the point guard duties. Lo and behold, as usual, Curry throws up a whopping 687 shots in 34 games (20.2 per game) but amazingly increases his assist average from 3.5 last season to 6.6 this season. His turnovers go up, unsurprisingly, but so does his assist/turnover rate to a respectable 1.5 for a combo guard. He may not be a very good defender but his fantastic steal rate of 3.0 per game shows that he is not asleep on that end of the floor. I look forward to seeing how he fares in the NBA.

Jrue Holiday (93), 6'4" - LOL. Wow, talk about a totally different player from Curry. You might be wondering how Holiday can be rated about the exact same as Curry when they are so different. One reason is class. If this would have been his junior year instead of his freshman year with stats like he put up, he would only score an 86.5. Another major issue is the school. UCLA's schedule is a bit tougher than Davidson's. Jrue really reminds me a TON of Russell Westbrook from last year. Both are from UCLA, have average assist numbers (5.5) and meager scoring averages (12.5) but are tough competitors with good but above average athleticism that seem to know how to play to their strengths on the court. Just like Curry, I am looking forward to seeing how good Holiday really is but I have a feeling that Curry will be the better pro. It's way too early to say so by statistics but It's my gut.

Hasheem Thabeet (92.5), 7'2" - He's tall. Very tall.

Oh yah, statistics? Well, he's improving his score every year! He blocks a whole bunch of shots (5.3) and grabs lots and lots of rebounds (13.6) and when he shoots they usually go in (64% FG). Seriously, those stats are impressive. I do wonder if he knows how to pass (0.6 assists per game) but really he is one of the best prospects at the center position since Greg Oden. The knock on him seems to be his basketball IQ but if he keeps improving the way he has been, he may just stumble into being one of the best centers in the league. Maybe not, but, at a 92.5 score, his stats when matched up to every other center in the past 25 years, doesn't come out half bad.

DeJuan Blair (92), 6'6" - NBrans is almost dead on when he says to just pass up on 6'6" power forwards. 99.9% of the time I would completely agree. DeJuan Blair is that other 0.1%. He is an absolute beast with a 7'3" wingspan! He is the fourth highest rated player (behind Blake Griffin, Stephen Curry and Lester Hudson) based on my main stat formulas (points, rebounds and assists only) in this draft class before negative modifiers are subtracted and secondary stats and intangibles are analyzed. There have been a couple recent 6'7" power forwards that have made an impact in the NBA. Let's compare stats with one shall we?

DeJuan Blair (92, Soph): 27.3 minutes, 1.2 assists, 12.3 boards, 15.7 points, 1.5 steals, 1.0 block, 59.3% FG.

Craig Smith (87.5, Senior): 36.3 minutes, 3.0 assists, 9.4 boards, 17.6 points, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks, 57.3% FG.

12.3 boards in 27.3 minutes is almost unheard of for a 6'6" power forward in the Big East. He even averages nearly 6 OFFENSIVE rebounds a game in only 27 minutes. I would actually compare Blair more to Paul Millsap and Millsap is turning out to be a very good player. Blair will be a force in the NBA but I think it will mostly be as a rebounder. Scoring against and defending NBA power forwards will be rough. I think that he will be drafted in the late teens somewhere so I doubt he will be on the board when the Kings pick which is fine with me. With all that being said, I still don't want to take a chance on a 6'6" power forward unless he can shoot the three or take 15 seconds to back down his opponent in the paint. Blair can't.

Jeff Teague (91.5), 6'1" - I don't know why, but when I watch him I get a little bit of a Mike Bibby vibe but I guess that's just me. I think it's because of his accurate set-shot three point stroke (44.1%) and that he's a scoring point guard. Actually, his stats are closer to what Nick Van Exel's were for whatever that's worth. At 23.5 ppg, Teague can really fill it up. As a sophomore he ranks very highly. Not too many sophomore point guards were much better than him as a scorer, outdoing past sophomore draftees such as Mike Bibby (21.4 ppg), Baron Davis (20.7 ppg) Chauncey Billups (23.4 ppg) and Gilbert Arenas (22.3 ppg). He even outscored highly praised shooting guard James Harden this season. Can he bring this scoring punch to the NBA is the question. Teague only dished out 4.4 assists per game which is way below par for top flight point guard prospects and his assist/turnover rate of 1.06/1 is frighteningly bad. Basically, by my stats, he really is a shooting guard that doesn't really play the point to set his teammates up. His steal rate of 2.3 is barely above average while his 48.5% FG shooting is rather impressive. Whoever picks Jeff Teague is getting a guard that will be able to score a lot. I think he would be a great pick for a team that has a ball-handling shooting guard like Dwyane Wade or Kobe Bryant or a team with great interior defense that needs a scoring point guard. I don't see too many teams like that though at least not in the range where Teague is expected to be drafted.

(Finally) It's time for the results of my system rankings of all the players (of significance) in the 2009 NBA draft. In Post #2 I will begin analyzing some of the players. Before I get to the list, I want to briefly explain again what the system is and what it's for. (Note: Please forgive any grammar or spelling errors. This is a looong post so I'm sure I messed up somewhere)

I have been obsessed with basketball statistics ever since the Kings came to Sacramento. I was even an assistant coach and statistician for my school for two years. About six years ago in 2003, there was such a fuss as to who would be the better pro between LeBron James, Darko Milicic, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. To find out I decided to create a statistical system for the sole purpose of comparing current college basketball player's statistics to the college stats of current and former NBA players to see if I could project the NBA potential of current college (and European) players. I went back and ended up taking about a year to come up first with the system then to input all the best NBA player's college stats into the system. To my dismay I couldn't find a way to rank players like LeBron that never went to college. To rank the players, I decided to use a number scoring system from 0 to 105. (Note: Below is a brief description of what each number equates to towards a players assessed NBA potential.)

Besides the (most important) common stats such as points, rebounds, assists and FG%, the system factors in assist/turnover ratio, strength of schedule, height relative to position, athleticism and class. Basically, strength of schedule is self explanatory. For example, if two players have exactly the same stats (per 40 minutes) but one player plays for UCLA and the other for Sacramento State, guess which one has the higher potential? The Sac State player. Go Hornets!! Erm, sorry. What is interesting about the system is that some schools I have found, like Syracuse, will give the player a negative modifier because of the systems they run. Same with Duke, North Carolina and others. Some, like UCLA, Connecticut and Memphis, give a positive modifier. Height and position go together. Obviously a 6'4" point guard is fine but a 5'9" one usually has significant disadvantages. The athleticism modifier is the hardest one to gauge and is the only modifier in the system where my personal opinion comes in to play. I don't give a player a bonus for being extra athletic but he probably will get a negative modifier for being overtly non-athletic or extremely overweight. In this year's draft, Nick Calathes, Luke Harangody (who's pulled out now) and John Bryant have received this modifier. (Note: I want to emphasize that even though I may prefer certain players to others, all the scores are based solely on the player's stats and by comparing them to every other NBA player before them. I don't change or tamper with a score because of personal preferences for or against a player. In fact, there are times where I disagree with my system's findings! Like with Jason Thompson last year and Spencer Hawes before him. Oops!)

Lastly I definitely factor in class. A senior and a freshman with the exact same stats, height and level of competition are (usually) never equal. The freshman will get the bonus for his potential. Almost every player improves from his freshman to senior year. Not all, but most do and usually significantly, so yes I factor in class.

Of course there are things that I just can't factor in such as work ethic, being prone to injury, toughness, hustle, leadership, one-on-one defensive ability (besides steals and blocks), basketball IQ and good or bad personalities. That stuff I leave up to all the analysts, GMs, scouts and fans. I can't actually meet or watch any of these guys play on a regular basis so it's impossible to accurately factor these things in.

Score descriptions: Before the list, here is a description of what each player score represents based on their college stats:

100+: Superstar/MVP potential - The best players of all time. These are the franchise players that will be the ones you hear in the MVP talk at the end of the year. Shaq (105), Dr. J. (104), Olajuwon (103.5), Michael Jordan (102.5), Allen Iverson (102.5), Charles Barkley (100.5) and Chris Paul (100) are among the players to score in this group.

98-100: All-Star/Superstar potential - Players in this rank will usually become multiple all-stars and sometimes even superstars. Kevin Durant (99), Scottie Pippen (99), Chris Webber (99) and Clyde Drexler (99) are among the players to score in this group.

96-98: All-Star potential - Players in this rank will usually become multiple all-stars but rarely all-star starters. Paul Pierce (97.5), Elton Brand (97.5), Carlos Boozer (97) Brandon Roy (96.5) and Mitch Richmond (96) are among the players to score in this group.

93-96: Solid Starter/All-Star potential - A player in this rank should be a solid starter for his whole career and will usually make at least one appearance as an all-star at some point in his career. Rasheed Wallace (96), Carmelo Anthony (96), Mike Bibby (95.5), Al Horford (95.5), Rajon Rondo (93.5) and Gerald Wallace (93) are among the players to score in this group.

90-93: Solid Starter potential - The backbone of the NBA. These players usually won't make it to an all-star game but they should have solid NBA careers. Danny Granger (92.5), Ben Gordon (92), Lionel Simmons (91.5), Kevin Martin (91), Rodney Stuckey (91), Spencer Hawes (91) and Paul Millsap (90) are among the players to score in this group.

86-90: Fringe Starter/Solid Starter potential - The elite of the NBA bench players. These players will usually be the first players off the bench for good teams or solid starters on poorer teams without a star at the position they play. Troy Murphy (90), Marcus Camby (89.5), Jason Thompson (89), Ike Diogu (88.5), Marc Gasol (88.5), John Salmons (87.5), Leon Powe (87) and Francisco Garcia (86.5) are among the players to score in this group.

82-86: 6th Man/Fringe Starter potential - The lunch pail types of the NBA. These players are the backups to the starters and will usually start about 25% of the time in their career. They are usually good players with limitations or average players that excel in a specific area. They may be starters on a poor team (such as Corey Brewer, 84.5), on a team that needs that player's special skill (such as Earl Watson, 84.5) or because they are filling in for an injured starter. Carl Landry (84.5), Renaldo Balkman (84), Brandon Bass (83) and Channing Frye (82.5) are among the players to score in this group.

77-82: Career Reserve/6th Man potential - These are the energy guys of the NBA. These players almost never become solid starters in the NBA.  About half scoring in this rank will be out of the league in 3 years while the other half will be able to find a team to stick with and have a long career bringing some needed energy off the bench. Bobby Jackson (81.5), Kenny Thomas (81.5), Trevor Ariza (81), Daniel Gibson (79.5) and Eddie House (79.5) are among the players to score in this group.

72-77: Career Reserve potential - These are the specialists of the NBA. About only 5% of players from this rank go on to start more than 10% of NBA games they play in and over half never even make it to sign a contract. Most of the players who score in this rank that go on to have long careers in the NBA are specialists - players that excel in a key area that a team might look for to fill holes or to use in certain situations such as a 3-pt marksman (JJ Redick, 73.5 and Steve Novak, 72), a shot blocker (Brian Skinner, 75.5), a banger/toughman (Eduardo Najera, 75.5) or a defensive specialist such as Randy Brown (74). Lawrence Funderburke (76.5), Justin Williams (76.5), Dahntay Jones (73.5) and Mikki Moore (72) are among the players to score in this group.

67-72: 12th Man/Career Reserve potential - The bench warmers and injured reserve of the NBA. Over 90% of players ranked in this group never sign an NBA contract. Similar to the rank above, the only players that make a long NBA career are specialists or the hustle/scrappers. Mateen Cleaves (71), Maurice Evans (69.5), Ronnie Price (68.5) and Patrick Ewing Jr. (67) are among the players to score in this group.

62-67: Fringe Player/12th Man potential - Only a handful of college players that find themselves in this rank have ever played a handful of games in the NBA. Duane Causwell (64), Daniel Ewing (64.5), Ryan Hollins (64.5) and Jermareo Davidson (63.5) are among the very few in this rank that have made it onto an NBA court.

0-62: Should Go Undrafted - A player in this range should not be drafted. Any GM that does draft someone in this rank should be punished.

2009 NBA Draft Rankings
 
 
Player-Class
School
Pos.
Score
1)
Blake Griffin-So
Oklahoma
FC
103
2)
Ricky Rubio-E
Spain
PG
100
3)
Tyreke Evans-F
Memphis
G
99
4)
Ty Lawson-J
North Carolina
PG
98
5)
James Harden-So
Arizona State
SG
94.5
6)
Stephen Curry-J
Davidson
G
93.5
7)
Jrue Holiday-F
UCLA
G
93
8)
Hasheem Thabeet-J
Connecticut
C
92.5
9)
DeJuan Blair-So
Pittsburgh
FC
92
10)
Jeff Teague-So
Wake Forest
PG
91.5
11)
Jonny Flynn-So
Syracuse
PG
90.5
12)
James Johnson-So
Wake Forest
F
90.5
13)
Nick Calathes-So
Florida
GF
90.5
14)
Brandon Jennings-E
Italy
PG
90
15)
Terrence Williams-Se
Louisville
GF
89.5
16)
DeMarre Carroll-Se
Missouri
PF
89.5
17)
DeMar DeRosan-F
USC
GF
89
18)
B.J. Mullens-F
Ohio State
C
88
19)
Jordan Hill-J
Arizona
PF
87.5
20)
Austin Daye-(So)
Gonzaga
F
87.5
21)
A.J. Price-(J)
Connecticut
PG
87.5
22)
Darren Collison-Se
UCLA
PG
87
23)
Leo Lyons-(Se)
Missouri
FC
86.5
24)
Taj Gibson-J
USC
PF
86.5
25)
Chase Budinger-J
Arizona
SF
86
26)
Eric Maynor -Se
VCU
PG
86
27)
Lee Cummard-(Se)
Brigham Young
GF
86
28)
Tyler Hansbrough-Se
North Carolina
PF
85.5
29)
Nando De Colo-E
France
G
85.5
30)
Danny Green-Se
North Carolina
GF
85
31)
Rodrigue Beaubois-E
France
PG
85
32)
Jerel McNeal-Se
Marquette
G
84.5
33)
Gerald Henderson-J
Duke
G
84.5
34)
Earl Clark-J
Louisville
F
84.5
35)
Omri Casspi-E
Israel
F
84
36)
Jodie Meeks-J
Kentucky
SG
84
37)
Travis Holmes-Se
Virginia Military
G
84
38)
John Bryant-Se
Santa Clara
C
84
39)
Wayne Ellington-J
North Carolina
G
83.5
40)
Sam Young-Se
Pittsburgh
GF
83
41)
Sergio Llull-E
Spain
PG
83
42)
Aaron Jackson-Se
Duquesne
PG
83
43)
Jeff Pendergraph-Se
Arizona State
PG
82.5
44)
Lester Hudson-Se
Tenn-Martin
PF
82.5
45)
Jermaine Taylor-Se
Central Florida
G
82
46)
Ben Woodside-Se
North Dakota St.
SG
81.5
47)
Patrick Mills-So
Saint Mary's
PG
81
48)
Marcus Thornton-Se
LSU
G
81
49)
Byron Eaton-Se
Oklahoma State
PG
81
50)
Tyrese Rice-Se
Boston College
PG
81
51)
Derrick Brown-J
Xavier
F
81
52)
Brandon Costner-J
NC State
SF
81
53)
Chinemelu Elonu-J
Texas A&M
C
81
54)
Dominic James-Se
Marquette
PG
80.5
55)
Toney Douglas-Se
Florida State
G
80.5
56)
Dionte Christmas-Se
Temple
GF
80
57)
Jack McClinton-Se
Miami (FL)
G
80
58)
Dar Tucker-So
DePaul
SG
80
59)
Jeremy Pargo-Se
Gonzaga
PG
80
60)
Paul Harris-J
Syracuse
GF
80
61)
Antonio Anderson-Se
Memphis
GF
79.5
62)
Robert Dozier-Se
Memphis
F
79
63)
Jon Brockman-(Se)
Washington
PF
78.5
64)
Levance Fields-Se
Pittsburgh
PG
78
65)
Cedric Jackson-(Se)
Cleveland State
G
78
66)
Chavis Holmes-Se
Virginia Military
G
77.5
67)
Chris Lowe-Se
Massachusetts
PG
77.5
68)
Henk Norel-E
Spain
C
77.5
69)
Luke Nevill-Se
Utah
C
77
70)
Alade Aminu-Se
Georgia Tech
PF
77
71)
Devan Downey-Se
South Carolina
PG
76.5
72)
Wesley Matthews-Se
Marquette
SG
76.5
73)
Curtis Jerrells-Se
Baylor
PG
76.5
74)
Shawn Taggart-J
Memphis
FC
76.5
75)
Ahmad Nivins-Se
Saint Joseph's
PF
76
 
Player-Class
School
Pos.
Score
76)
Josh Shipp-Se
UCLA
SG
76
77)
Slava Kravtsov-E
Ukraine
C
76
78)
Justin Dentmon-Se
Washington
PG
75
79)
Tony Gaffney-Se
Massachusetts
PF
75
80)
Emir Preldzic-E
Turkey
SF
75
81)
Goran Suton-(Se)
Michigan St.
FC
74.5
82)
A.D. Vassallo-Se
Virginia Tech
GF
74.5
83)
Milenko Tepic-E
Russia
G
74.5
84)
Dante Cunningham-Se
Villanova
PF
73
85)
K.C. Rivers-(Se)
Clemson
GF
72.5
86)
Lorrenzo Wade-Se
San Diego State
GF
72
87)
Victor Claver-E
Spain
F
72
88)
Josh Heytvelt-Se
Gonzaga
FC
71.5
89)
Garrett Temple-Se
LSU
GF
71.5
90)
Daniel Hackett-J
USC
PG
70
91)
Vitor Faverani-E
Spain
FC
70
92)
Randall Hanke-Se
Providence
C
69.5
93)
Kevin Goffney-Se
Chattanooga
GF
69
94)
Brett Winkelman-(Se)
North Dakota St.
F
69
95)
Nicchaeus Doaks-(Se)
Chattanooga
F
68.5
96)
Jonas Jerebko-E
Italy
F
68.5
97)
Ade Dagunduro-Se
Nebraska
SG
68
98)
Jeff Foote-Se
Cornell
C
66
99)
Gasper Vidmar-E
Turkey
C
66
100)
Jimmy Baron-Se
Rhode Island
G
65
101)
DaJuan Summers-J
Georgetown
SF
65
102)
Jeff Adrien-Se
Connecticut
PF
64.5
103)
Stefon Jackson-(Se)
UTEP
SG
64.5
104)
Alfred Aboya-Se
UCLA
PF
64.5
105)
Wink Adams-(Se)
UNLV
PG
64.5
106)
Patrick Beverley-J
Arkansas
PG
64
107)
C.J. Anderson-(Se)
Xavier
SF
63.5
108)
Brandon Ewing-Se
Wyoming
PG
63
109)
Taylor Griffin-Se
Oklahoma
SF
62.5
110)
Eric Devendorf-J
Syracuse
PG
62
111)
Diamon Simpson-(Se)
Saint Mary's
PF
61.5
112)
Kevin Tiggs-Se
East Tenn. St.
SG
61.5
113)
Chris Bethel-Se
Fordham
SF
60.5
114)
B.J. Raymond-Se
Xavier
GF
60.5
115)
Kahiem Seawright-Se
Rhode Island
PF
60
116)
Jerome Tillman-Se
Ohio
SF
60
117)
Alonzo Gee-Se
Alabama
F
59.5
118)
Tremaine Townsend-(Se)
Cal St. Northridge
PF
59.5
119)
Alex Barnett-Se
Dartmouth
GF
59.5
120)
Kyle McAlarney-Se
Notre Dame
PG
59.5
121)
Orlando Mendez-Valdez-Se
Western Kentucky
PG
58.5
122)
Robert Vaden-(Se)
UAB
G
57
123)
Tony Danridge-Se
New Mexico
G
56.5
124)
Matt Lawrence-Se
Missouri
SG
56
125)
Greg Paulus-(Se)
Duke
PG
55.5
126)
Austin Johnson-Se
Oklahoma
PG
55
127)
Lewis Clinch-Se
Georgia Tech
G
53.5
128)
A.J. Abrams-(Se)
Texas
PG
53
129)
Tyson Johnson-Se
Wyoming
F
53
130)
Kyle Spain-Se
San Diego State
GF
52.5
131)
Russell Hicks-(Se)
Florida Int.
C
52.5
132)
Rob Diggs-Se
GWU
F
51
133)
Lamont Mack-Se
Charlotte
F
47.5
134)
Connor Atchley-(Se)
Texas
FC
45.5
135)
Marcus Ginyard-(Se)
North Carolina
G
43.5
136)
Josh Akognon-Se
Cal St. Fullerton
PG
43
137)
Matt Kingsley-Se
Stephen Austin
FC
41.5
138)
Fendi Onobun-(Se)
Arizona
F
41
139)
Wynton Witherspoon-(Se)
GWU
GF
40.5
140)
Charlie Coley-Se
Charlotte
F
37
141)
J'Nathan Bullock-Se
Cleveland State
SF
36
142)
Bobby Frasor-Se
North Carolina
G
34
143)
Andrew Lovedale-Se
Davidson
FC
34
144)
Steve Harley-Se
Nebraska
G
33.5
145)
Rogers Barnes-Se
Morgan State
G
20.5
(Please click HERE for the 2008 rankings)

via api.ning.com

*My systems rating of Ty Lawson: 99.0 (All-Star/Superstar)*

Many of you know about the college player statistical system that I have been using for the last few years. I unveiled it last year. This post isn’t really about my system, but it IS about statistics. It’s my case for drafting Ty Lawson with the 4th pick in the 2009 NBA draft.

The Kings' main position need is what? A point guard.

They need a point guard that can do four main things:

1. Defend.

2. Run a team and create shots for others, not just himself.

3. Shoot the three reliably.

4. High basketball IQ, play under control, is tough, is a leader and a winner.

Ty Lawson does all four and does them well.

1. He has quick feet and has one of the highest steal rates per minute of all point guards in the NCAA. Yes, he is barely 6’0 tall but so is Chris Paul.

2. He averaged NINE (9.0) assists per game per 40 minutes played. That is second only to Levance Fields among the top 50 NCAA point guard prospects this year.

3. Made almost half of his 3-pt attempts and almost 1/3 of his shots were threes.

4. Led his college team to the NCAA championship and was the best player on that team. He had nine steals in the NCAA championship game. Lawson went to the free throw line nearly six times per game. He is fearless going to the basket and will throw his body around. This season, he had one of the highest assist to turnover rates in NCAA history at 3.5/1.

Saving my best for last, there is one nearly SURE FIRE way to know that a point guard at the college level is going to be excellent in the NBA. Go to their stats page and look at their last two seasons of play. Get a calculator and look to see if they match ALL of the following criteria:

• 50% FG shooting or better
• An average of over 15 points per 40 mintues
• An average of over 6.0 assists per 40 minutes
• An assist/turnover rate of 2:1 or better
• An average of over 2.5 steals per 40 minutes

In the past 30 years, there are very few players that have done all of that in the same season. Here are the only 8 players I know of (along with the stats of their best NBA season) that have reached all 5 of those marks:

John Stockton (17.2 pts, 14.5 assists, 2.7 steals, 51.4 FG%, 41.6 3-pt%, 4.1/1 A/T rate)

Isiah Thomas (21.2 pts, 13.9 assists, 2.3 steals, 46.0 FG%, 3.76/1 A/T rate)

Rod Strickland (17.8 pts, 10.5 assists, 1.7 steals, 5.3 boards, 43.4 FG%, 3/1 A/T rate)

Gary Payton (24.2 pts, 8.9 assists, 1.9 steals, 6.5 boards, 34.0 3-pt%, 3.3/1 A/T rate)

Tim Hardaway (22.9 pts, 9.7 assists, 2.6 steals, 47.6 FG%, 38.5 3-pt%, 2.9/1 A/T rate)

Andre Miller (16.5 pts, 10.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 4.7 boards, 45.4 FG%, 3.6/1 A/T rate)

Antonio Daniels (11.2 pts, 4.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 43.8 FG%, 4.1/1 A/T rate)

Chris Paul (22.8 pts, 11.0 assists, 2.8 steals, 5.6 boards, 50.3 FG%, 36.4 3-pt%, 3.7/1 A/T rate)

Now, you can add Ty Lawson to that list.

That’s quite a select group which includes 3 (or 4 if you include Chris Paul) of the best point guards in the history of the NBA. Not only has Lawson pulled it off this season but last season as well and in his freshman year he only missed because his steal rate was 2.37. I don’t know if I personally think that Ty Lawson will be as good as some of the players listed above, but the stats are in his favor. Of course, you don’t have to have those five things to become a great point guard (Magic shot less than 50% as did Jason Kidd, etc.), but if you do have them, as you can see, so far, it’s a near (Antonio Daniels) guarantee that you will become an excellent NBA player. Lawson’s assist/turnover rate is phenomenal at 3.5:1. That high a number is almost unheard of in college and one of the highest in NCAA history. His 3-pt shooting has increased from 36% to 47% - the same % Chris Paul had coming out of college. Needless to say, I think that Lawson is underrated in this draft and should be a top 10 lottery pick – if not a top 5, even at 5’11". Just for comparison sake here are Ty Lawson’s junior stats next to Chris Paul’s sophomore stats (note: CP3 matched the above criteria in his freshman year):

TL: 29.9 min, 16.6 pts, 6.6 assists, 2.1 steals, 53.2 FG%, 47.2 3-pt%, 3.5:1 a/t

CP: 33.4 min, 15.3 pts, 6.6 assists, 2.4 steals, 45.1 FG%, 47.4 3-pt%, 2.4:1 a/t

Chris Paul rated at 100 so it’s not a shock to me to see Ty Lawson rated where he’s at. Am I saying Lawson will be as good as Paul?

NO.

All I am saying is that I pray that Petrie and the rest of the scouts take a VERY CLOSE and SERIOUS look at Lawson. Most mock drafts have him going anywhere from between 7 to 17 – same as where Westbrook was sitting at this point last year.

Statistically he’s the "next Chris Paul" but statistics can lie (yes, I said it) and I honestly do NOT think he will be, however I do hope that the Kings give him a very close look, to say the least.

Hunches. A hunch is just a feeling you get in your gut that you may not be able to explain rationally.

I have a hunch about tonight's game. I am predicting that Rashad McCants will score 20+ points.  Why? I have no clue. It's just a hunch but I can't shake it. Usually, when I have a hunch the exact opposite happens so I suppose we should expect to see McCants go 0-8 from the field with 6 turnovers or something.

We got to see a glimpse of what Andres Nocioni and Will Solomon can do on the court but tonight will be the first game that all the new players (besides Drew Gooden, who may be out for the rest of the year because of his groin injury) will be suited up and ready for action.

Does anybody think a certain player will have a good game? Any hunches out there besides mine? My question is, of the new players, who do you think will have the best game tonight? Nocioni is the likely candidate but I feel McCants will go off. In a good way hopefully. What do you think?