SB Nation User Blog: dalt99

Casspi to 'Post': I'll be ready to play when NBA season starts

dalt99 — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 21:19:39 -0000

Casspi to 'Post': I'll be ready to play when NBA season starts

Omri:
"It is a slow process, but we're going to take it step-by-step and I will be ready to go by the beginning of the season, I guarantee you,"

Sacramento Kings Consider Options with Sean May and Ike Diogu

dalt99 — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 20:50:11 -0000

Sacramento Kings Consider Options with Sean May and Ike Diogu

I hope the Kings sign Diogu. May? Meh.

2009 NBA DRAFT – (Post #3) Player Analysis, Part 2

dalt99 — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 08:30:24 -0000

(Click HERE to see the first post with the list of all the players)
(Click HERE to see the second post with analysis of the top 10 players)

In my last installment of player analysis for the 2009 draft based on my statistical system, I will be analyzing players that I feel are of the most interest to Kings fans. One thing I've noticed about this draft is that there are a lot of very athletic players this year. It should be a fun draft class. Is it Thursday yet?

Remember, these are still just my opinions, I don't pretend to be any "expert" on these players. I am just expanding on the findings of my system and adding my two cents.

(Note: You can click on the player’s name (score and height also where applicable) to see a highlight video of that player.)

Nick Calathes (91), 6'5" - Nick is a well-rounded, skillful and talented basketball player. If he had the athletic ablility of Brandon Jennings and the speed of Allen Iverson, he would probably be the #2 pick in this draft hands down. He pumps out 7.7 assists per game, grabs 6.4 rebounds and puts up 20.7 points. All this as a sophomore at the University of Florida. He's a pass first guard that has just under a 2/1 assist to turnover rate and shoots a fantastic 55.5% from 2-pt range. His 3-pt shooting is a solid 39% as well. Many people see him as a point guard, which he is, but may not know that he actually shared the point guard duties with fellow teammates (5'8") Erving Walker and (6'0") Walter Hodge. On defense he actually would guard the small forward many times. Speaking of defense, that is probably his biggest weakness. At only 185 pounds and with average speed, he will have tons of trouble staying in front of the smaller, quicker guards but also probably won't be able to handle the bigger, stronger ones either. The lack of any real explosiveness is going to be his biggest weakness in the NBA. Luckily he is such a good shooter. He has signed a one-year contract to play in Greece so he won't be available to the team that drafts him, but if he is on the board when the Kings pick at #31 and they didn't get Rubio, Flynn, Lawson, Collison or Maynor, I would be fine with it if they snap Calathes up. I feel he warrants being drafted anywhere in the last third of the first round.

Jonny Flynn (90.5), 6'0" - I don't see Flynn going at #4 but I think he is worth being drafted anytime after the 6th pick. He's fun to watch and should become a solid NBA pro PG. Flynn has a great motor, heart, athleticism and leadership skills.

OK, that's it for my opinions and now to the analysis. A bit smallish for a point guard in the NBA but Chris Paul and lesser players like T.J. Ford and Jameer Nelson have come into the league lately and done very well. Flynn's 7.2 assists per game is far better than average for a sophomore point guard and his 46% FG shooting is more than acceptable (but not fantastic) for his size. The biggest (though relatively minor) criticism I see with Flynn is not so much any particular statistic; it's that he barely improved at all over his freshman year. Other than points and assists which went up at a marginal level, his rebounds, assist/turnover ratio, FG% and steal rate all stayed exactly the same or was slightly worse. His 3-pt shooting percentage dropped from 35% to 32% even though he attempted fewer shots from long range. These negatives are not red flags but they are at best yellow flags. If you (or any GM) can find any good reason for the lack of improvement than I will concede the negatives moot, but I am always a little bit worried when a player does not improve significantly from his freshman season in at least a couple areas. Well, unless that player is LeBron James or something...

Brandon Jennings (90), 6'1" - The enigma of the first round. I really love his freakish quickness and athleticism but is that all he has?

Assists per game is way below par at 3.4 per game against the best players in Europe but in the Italian league it was a slightly better than average 5.4 per game. A 38.5% FG percentage is also bad but it's mainly due to the fact that he shoots 20.7% from 3-pt range and 37% of his FG attempts are from long range. That shows either bad decision making or a lack of being able to break his man down off the dribble. He only averages 3.9 free throw attempts per game. Even Jason Williams got to line around 4.7 times per game in college and we all know how much he loved body contact in the lane. Still, with all this said, Brandon averaged 15.5 ppg against the best pros in Europe as a rookie and had a decent assist/turnover rate of 1.5 in the Italian league. He has upside but the statistics (as too few as they are, I frustratingly admit) don't point to being a sure top 10 pick. Of all the players in the draft, he has the widest potential of anybody. I can see him being picked anywhere from 5 to 22 and he could end up a star or a bust. Personally I side somewhere inbetween.

Terrence Williams (89.5), 6'6" - I love his athleticism and overall basketball skills. Williams is a complete player that could become a superstar in the NBA but also could disappoint because statistically, his stats are either up or down. For a shooting guard/small forward, he has great numbers in steals (2.7), rebounding (10.1) and assists per game (5.8 - wow) but he also is very poor in other areas such as scoring (14.6), FG shooting (43.1%) and FT shooting (58.1%). I don't think his rebounding numbers will be anywhere near where his college numbers are and his assist numbers won't be that high when he's on a team with a true point guard, so his scoring output will be much more scrutinized and will need to improve at the next level. I hear that he is a very good 1 on 1 defender so maybe he will end up like a Tayshaun Prince type player in the NBA with more explosiveness. T-Will should be one of the players in this draft to come in and produce right away and is probably a bit underrated on most draft boards as I feel he should easily be a lottery pick.

DeMarre Carroll (89.5), 6'7" - Too undersized to play power forward in the NBA like he did mostly in college. I am always impressed with a player that improves significantly all four years in college and Carroll has done that. His scoring average (10.3, 14.8, 20.6 and 23.7) and FG% (50, 51.1, 53.6 and 55.8) are the most significant improvements as is his steal rate (1.5, 1.7, 1.8 and 2.2). He is solid rebounder (10.2) and a good back to the basket scorer with good shooting touch (57.9% from 2-pt range). DeMarre's lack of a reliable deep shot (18 feet and out) and lack of extraordinary speed will hamper him in the NBA as a small forward. He may not be agile enough to be able to guard the three position in the NBA or strong and tall enough to guard power forwards. I fear he is one of those players where he may excel in the minors but flop in the major leagues. It will all depend on him improving at the same rate he has been. I would not count him out though! I think Carroll should be drafted in the late first, early second round. 25-35 seems about right.

Darren Collison (87), 6'1" - Here is another very good PG in this draft under 6'2". Like Ty Lawson and Flynn, Collison is an above average shooter. I listed what to look for statwise for point guards in my Case for Ty Lawson post so how does the 6'1" Collison stack up? FG% over 50%? Yup! Over 15 points a game? Yah! Assists over 6 per game? Yes! Assist to TO ratio over 2.0? No, but close at 1.92. Steal rate of over 2.5 per game in 40 minutes? No (2.0).

As a smallish guard, weighing only 165, he needs to be super fast and very good defensively. He looks to be a good player at the point and if the Kings don't take Rubio, Curry or Flynn and Ty Lawson can't be had at 23, Collison will probably be available in the late first and would be a steal at #23 and a great pick for the Kings if they decide to go that route. Collison should be drafted in the first round at about 20-30.

Taj Gibson (86.5), 6'10" - First thing you notice statistically is the phenomenal 3.4 blocks per game. That's no fluke either due to his awesome 7'4" wingspan which is equal to the likes of Greg Oden. Gibson is an average but competent rebounder (10.7) and is smart around the basket on the offensive end and on mid range shots, finishing the season with a strong 60.0 FG% but is not a high volume scorer at only 17.8 ppg. I think Taj can be more than a competent defensive presence in the paint but I am not sure if he will be skilled enough to make it on the offensive end. He played for USC which has a good track record for players playing up to their scores in the NBA but power forwards that don't shoot or rebound exceptionally will have a tough time lasting in the NBA. A team needing defensive help from their bench should probably look his way. I think he could be a good second round pick and deserves to get drafted anywhere from #32 to #40.

Eric Maynor (86), 6'3" - Maynor isn't especially fast or athletic but he does have a good basketball IQ, toughness, a competitive spirit, is clutch and has NBA level talent. Statistically he is very impressive (7.0 apg, 4.1 rpg, 25.2 ppg), but that's playing for Virginia Commonwealth in a weaker NCAA conference. He can sure score! Reminds me a bit of Deron Williams (toughness, IQ and leadership) mixed with Rodney Stuckey (raw scoring ability and fearlessness) statwise. I have a feeling that Maynor could be one of the steals in the middle part of the draft. I doubt he will fall to #23, damn it, but I sure hope so. With his potential, I think he should be taken in the mid first round (15-23).

Tyler Hansbrough (85.5), 6'9" - If Tyler was a sophomore and putting up these numbers, or was showing big improvement every year, I would be more interested in him. VERY interested in fact. However, he is a senior and has shown only slight improvement since his sophomore year. He is tough and can shoot fairly well even out to the 3-pt line, on the college level. Even though his rebounding average (12.4) is solid, his size and lack of great leaping ability will probably hinder him in the NBA. Because he has solid numbers and has been doing it his whole college career at a top notch program, I think he will come into the NBA and be effective right away. I just don't see a high ceiling for him however. Being drafted in the 16-25 range seems about right.

Gerald Henderson (84.5), 6'5" - Very athletic, exciting and high profile shooting guard with decent passing skills (3.4 apg). Compared to all of the higher level shooting guards of the past, his FG shooting percentage (45%) is too low, especially for a player that likes to attack the basket and where only ¼ of his shots are 3-pt attempts. The plusses are his scoring ability (22.2 ppg), athleticism and his aggressiveness, including a solid 1.4 blocks per game average last season. Gerald needs to get to about 50% or better from the field in the NBA to be a consistent starter unless he can improve on his below average 33% 3-pt shooting like a Kevin Martin or really improve on his playmaking. For a quick comparison, let's look at Henderson and Tyreke Evans. Evans is not considered a very good shooter right? Well taking away the three point shots, Tyreke shoots 51% from 2-pt range while Henderson shoots 49%. Evans can do more than Henderson can (rebounding, ball handling and passing) and has two years less experience. The slightly overrated (my opinion) Henderson is projected to go within the first 8 - 15 picks and I am happy with that. Not that Gerald doesn't have the potential to be a solid NBA player, but each overrated player being picked before #23 means a better player may fall to the Kings. I think he should be taken anywhere from 14 to 24.

Jerel McNeal (84.5), 6'3" - What you see is what you get from Jerel: a good scorer (22.6 ppg). In four years at Marquette he has pretty much put up the same numbers though he is improving but not enough to talk about. His steal numbers are impressive (about 2.5 to 3 per game) but that's about the only thing I really like about his game. He is a streaky shooter that can light it up from time to time. I see him living up to his potential as a 6th man type coming off the bench, but as a 6'3" combo (mostly shooting) guard, that's not enough to take him at #23 or #31. 32-40 is about right.

Omri Casspi (84), 6'9" - A marksman from the 3-pt line (45%) and an above average athlete who likes to run the floor for easy dunks. Omri is a player that Petrie loves: The long range bombing Euro that can come off screens and catch and shoot and run the floor. I don't see much else in Omri's bag of tricks however. He snags a modest 7.1 rebounds and nets half a block per game. Not too exciting for a 220 pound 6'9 power forward. Omri is basically Peja lite and I am not sure if that's what the Kings need. He can be a role player on a good team however and does have that overused word (by me usually) = potential. He should be drafted anywhere from 25 to 40.

Sam Young (83), 6'6" - A great athletic scorer at Pittsburgh this year with 24.1 ppg. Young is a "shootist" as Jerry Reynolds likes to say. He knows what he is. He doesn't try to pass much (1.4 apg) and doesn't get a lot of steals or blocks but he rebounds at a solid 7.9 per game average. He is strong, creative and fearless. He is one of the players that I was surprised about when I saw his score. I feel he is a bit better than an 83 and I feel he will be drafted in the late first round where he should be.

Jeff Pendergraph (82.5), 6'10" - Quick leaper with good hands and athleticism. Jeff is not a great force in any one area but has one thing going for him that I really like: He is super efficient. He shot a whopping 66% from the field on 300 field goals last season and was #1 among all power forwards in points per possession. His points per game (17.8) and FG% have been increasing well each season. The problem with Pendergraph is that's about all he does great. He's a decent but still raw low post scorer with no 3-pt range. He is a good but nothing special rebounder (10.1) and is way below average in steals (0.6) and blocks (1.1). If he continues to improve as a scorer he may eek his way into a 6th man role but I see him ending up more like a better James Augustine from the 2006 draft. Role player potential and mid second round pick (40-50).

Dionte Christmas (82) - Like Jerel McNeal, what you see is what you get with Dionte. He is a smart, athletic player with a quick release and a sweeeeet stroke. As a 6'5" shooting guard, he takes nearly 60% of his FG attempts from 3-pt range and shoots a respectable 35% so can he be the next Allan Houston? Well, Allan shot 42.4% for 4 years at college. Also, Reggie Miller, Ray Allen and Mitch Richmond shot 43.9%, 46.4% and 46.9% respectively in college. To be a star 3-pt shooter, 35% usually will not cut it. It can happen, he can improve, and he has other skills (which have improved in his senior year) but shooting the 3 is really what Dionte is known for and his averages have been slowly declining not rising. He could turn out to be a bigtime 3-pt shooting sparkplug off the bench but I wouldn't want to bet on it. Not for the Kings at least. I see him being drafted late in the second round.

Patrick Mills (81), 6'0" - A very speedy player with his feet and hands. Snagging almost 3 steals a game per 40 minutes does show that he has good instincts and reflexes. However, as a PG, his assist/turnover rate of 1.25 (4.7 assists per game) is very poor even for the college level. Besides the steals and scoring (22.1 ppg), his stats are not outstanding and he plays for Saint Mary's in a slightly weaker conference. He is too much of a shooter/scorer for what the Kings need in a late round prospect at PG unless they are looking for a "water bug" off the bench. He has improved a decent amount from his freshman year however, so I can see him surpassing his potential and if he can improve his playmaking can become a solid backup PG.

Derrick Brown (81), 6'9 - Freak athleticism. He also has a fantastic 7'3" wingspan. That's about where all the accolades end. Is he statistically poor? Not really, but when you measure him up to all the small forwards in history, other than his height and 3-pt percentage he really doesn't stand out. For a junior, 18.6 ppg is good but not great. 8.3 rebounds per game is also just fine but not fantastic, especially for a player with the wingspan he has. Tyreke Evans had only one less rebound a game at 7.4 as a point guard. Another concern is that he only averages 1 steal per game. That is very poor for a tall small forward with his wingspan and quickness. If a small forward is a fairly good scorer and decent but average rebounder, historically he should have something else to add. That something else is usually great 3-pt range and even better, court vision. Read = assists. An assist average of 2.6 per game does not impress. Julian Wright from the 2007 draft had many similarities to Brown and many of Brown's same weaknesses. Wright has been a disappointment so far in the NBA. The good news is that while Wright is a poor 3-pt shooter, Brown is above average. His 3-pt shot has improved greatly this year. He shot a very good 43.3% (39-90, 26% of his total FG attempts). If Brown is going to be an impact player in the NBA I think it comes down to his outside shot and defensive prowess. If he can get his 3-pt percentage to a consistent 40% from NBA range he may find his way into the starting lineup sooner than later. Still, I think he should be drafted in the early second round.

Jon Brockman (78.5), 6'7" - Undersized power forward from Washington. This big guy leads the Huskies in career rebounds (15.1 per game this season) and scoring (19.6 per game) but he will have a hard time duplicating those numbers in the NBA due to his height and utter lack of leaping ability. He has good hustle and scrap and will throw his strong body around with anybody, but he shouldn't be anything more than an undersized low post banger in the NBA. Defensively he is too slow and has no chance of guarding faster, taller and more athletic NBA power forwards. He is absolutely no shot blocker (3 blocks TOTAL this season) and has no outside range. Maybe he could become today's version of Mark Olberding. Anybody remember Olberding??

Quickly let me name some players that I see being underrated and overrated. Again, you can click on the player's name (and team) to see a highlight video.

UNDERRATED:

Leo Lyons - Missouri (86.5). In most mocks, he is projected to be drafted around 61st. Really? Not drafted? Seriously? The dude played for one of the top teams in the nation and averaged 25.1 ppg, 10.5 rpg and 3.4 apg. With a career 53.0 FG% and gets to the line an astounding 11.3 times per 40 minutes.
Austin Daye - Gonzaga (87.5) - Long and lean. As a sophomore, Austin is one of the players with the greatest potential in this draft and I could see him becoming a star in the NBA if he works hard and continues to improve. Reminding me a LOT like Anthony Randolph from last year's draft, but with a MUCH better 3-pt shot (42.9%). Austin blocks 3.1 shots per game and is a fluid athlete on both ends of the court. He is projected to be drafted anywhere from 12 to 25. If he is there at #23, even with JT and Green on the team, I think the Kings should strongly lean his way.
Danny Green - North Carolina (86.5). Besides the great athleticism and quickness, I don't see much difference between Green and Gerald Henderson. Let's compare:

Danny Green-Se

North Carolina

27.4

2.7

4.7

13.1

4.0

6.9

19.1

47.1

41.8

Min

Asts

Reb

Pts

a/40

r/40

p/40

FG%

Gerald Henderson-J

Duke

29.7

2.5

4.9

16.5

3.4

6.6

22.2

45.0

33.6

Danny also has a much better steal (2.6 to 1.7) and blocks (2.0 to 1.0) per game average. Green may not be quite as explosive and exciting as Henderson but if Gerald is a top 15 pick, Green should be in the first round. Most mocks list him going in the mid to late second round. For a small forward that can shoot the three from 25 feet effortlessly, make clutch shots and defend, he should be a prime time candidate for a good team looking to pick up that great role player at the end of the first round. I would not be surprised to see San Antonio take him with the 37th pick. He would be the perfect fit for them.

4. A.J. Price - Connecticut (87.5). The forgotton point guard. With all the praise and attention that players like Teague, Collison, Maynor, Mills, Douglas and Beaubois are getting, A.J. seems to be the forgotten man. He starred for one of the top teams in the nation and averaged 18.5 points, 6 assists and shot 40% from 3-pt range. A.J. may not deserve to be drafted above the guards I mentioned above, mainly due to his inconsistency, but he deserves a good look in the early second round.

OVERRATED:

Jordan Hill - Arizona (87.5). Some mocks have Hill going as high as 5th and I just don't see it. Hill should be a good player and he does have upside. He is improving fairly well each year but to me there are many players with better upside or are better players right now that also have upside. He is a solid rebounder (12.3) and scorer (20.5) but with his slightly better than average FG shooting and lack of any range from 15 feet and out, he better have some impressive defensive skills for a top 5 pick. He doesn't. There is no doubt he has potential, but with so many players that have been busts with his pedigree, it's a big risk to draft him in the top 10. Drafting him in the teens seems about right.
Earl Clark - Louisville (84.5). I am sticking my neck far out on this one. I get a Jeff Green vibe from Clark except that Green was a MUCH better outside shooter than Clark. His 45.7 FG% has been decreasing each year as he shoots more and more 3-pointers. His greatest asset, similar to Jeff Green, is that he can play three positions fairly well. Besides his decent assist average of 3.7 per game, he does not impress in any area statistically. Many mock drafts have him going anywhere from 8th to 18th. I don't feel he should be taken before the 15th pick.

If you read all this, thanks very much. You must love this stuff as much as I do. All I can say now is...

GO KINGS!! (and good luck Petrie. The pressure is on)

Lastly, here is a little nugget just for you Section. I know how you love good ol' Joe Kleine. Remember him? The guy the Kings took with the high lottery (6th) pick in 1985? That Joe Kliene. Well, would you like to know what his score is in my system based on his college stats? Brace yourself:

82.

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NBA Draft Preview by Jay Bilas

dalt99 — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 00:57:00 -0000

NBA Draft Preview by Jay Bilas

Nice breakdown of the NBA draft by Jay Bilas here. I agree with most of what he said.

2009 NBA DRAFT – DALT99 SYSTEM PLAYER RANKINGS (Post #2) with Statistical Analysis

dalt99 — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 16:18:45 -0000

INDIVIDUAL PLAYER ANALYSIS

Below is my analysis of my system's findings for the top 10 ranked players. (Note: click on the player's names to see a YouTube highlight video of that player. Click on the player's score and height (where applicable) to see a different highlight video.)

Blake Griffin (103), 6'10" - Yes, I DID double check my numbers. Actually I have probably checked them about 10 fricken times. 103 does seem a BIT high but as we all know, the dude is a rebounding machine. 17.3 per game?? That's nuts. That's not all though. He also throws in a meager 27.3 points on 65.4% FG shooting. Yah. Fricken' nuts. All this as a 19 year old sophomore. He also gets huge props in my book for showing that he's not just a guy that is peaking early. His freshman season scored a 97 (which would have scored him at a 94.5 if he would have duplicated those stats this season) which shows that he is still improving at a good rate. Negatives? Well, height (and wingspan) is really the only thing you can statistically look to when comparing him to all other power forwards in history. Well that and the (major?) fact that he is no marksman from the 3-pt stripe. Of course you could also wish his blocks were over the average number of 1.4 per game. It will be interesting to see if he can carry his rebounding prowess to the NBA. It may take a few years, but by the time he is 24 or 25, I think he will be at the point where we will know for sure just how good he really is.

Ricky Rubio (99.5), 6'4" - An extraordinary passer. Amazing court vision, flair and ball-handling ability. By far the best assist numbers in the draft at 10.6 (6.1/23 minutes) per game with ACB in Spain. That is phenomenal. His scoring average of 17.4 is nothing to complain about either for an 18 year old point guard. 4.5 rebounds per game shows he is willing to go into the paint and hustle. He actually has a career rebound average of nearly 6 per game. His steal rate of 3.8 this season is as amazing as his career 4.76 steals per game average. His game has been improving every year in three critical areas: points per game (12.5, 10.1, 18.2 and 17.4), assist average (4.8, 4.8, 7.0 and 10.6) and assist/turnover ratio (0.9, 1.8, 1.9 and 2.0). He still does turn the ball over a bit too much and shoots a slightly alarming 40.8% career FG shooting which is not showing any improvement.

Tyreke Evans (99), 6'5" - Terrible assist/turnover rate (1.08), 3-pt% (27.4) and...and......well, that's just about it. He's a freshman? Really? He's actually an "old" freshman at 19 already so I guess you could say he's a freshmore. Statistically I am super impressed with his ability to score 23.6 points per game while shooting ¼ of his shots from 3-pt range at 27%. He is obviously a scorer first and not a "true point guard" but his assist average of 5.4 is actually better than average for a shooting guard. Much better than average. For a point guard however, that number is not very impressive. There is no doubt that with Evans, you are getting a scorer first but he shows enough point guard skills to play the position competently. 2.9 steals and 1.1 blocks per game is also way above average for a combo guard. I haven't even mentioned his 7.4 rebounds a game. He's a freshman? Seriously though, I don't know how many NBA teams where Evans will flourish in. He needs the ball in his hands a LOT to be effective, but he is usually looking to score, not set up teammates. Only a team that's willing to be run by a "point-shooting guard" will allow Evans to play to his strengths so any team with an established point guard will probably not work for him.

Ty Lawson (98), 5'11" - Please see my post called "The Case for Ty Lawson" if you haven't already.

*Update* - Due to his combine results, he has dropped to 98 score.

James Harden (94.5), 6'5" - Solid. Really no major weaknesses. Rates strongly in points (22.5), assists (4.7), and free throw attempts (8.6) per game for a shooting guard. Just a bit above average in FG shooting and steals at 49% and 1.8 respectively. The only negative I can even come up with is that he did not improve on his freshman year in a large way. In fact if he would have come out last year, his score would have been a 96.5. I have seen this before though and the reason is probably because defenses this season really started keying in on stopping Harden. I am expecting a great career from JH13.

Stephen Curry (93.5), 6'3" - To me, of all the players in this year's draft, Curry is the most fascinating on a statistical level. He is a lights-out scorer (33.9) who throws up tons of shots. A prolific 3-pt shooter: half his FG attempts are threes with a career percentage of 41.4. After last year, his running mate Jason Richards leaves and he is stuck with the point guard duties. Lo and behold, as usual, Curry throws up a whopping 687 shots in 34 games (20.2 per game) but amazingly increases his assist average from 3.5 last season to 6.6 this season. His turnovers go up, unsurprisingly, but so does his assist/turnover rate to a respectable 1.5 for a combo guard. He may not be a very good defender but his fantastic steal rate of 3.0 per game shows that he is not asleep on that end of the floor. I look forward to seeing how he fares in the NBA.

Jrue Holiday (93), 6'4" - LOL. Wow, talk about a totally different player from Curry. You might be wondering how Holiday can be rated about the exact same as Curry when they are so different. One reason is class. If this would have been his junior year instead of his freshman year with stats like he put up, he would only score an 86.5. Another major issue is the school. UCLA's schedule is a bit tougher than Davidson's. Jrue really reminds me a TON of Russell Westbrook from last year. Both are from UCLA, have average assist numbers (5.5) and meager scoring averages (12.5) but are tough competitors with good but above average athleticism that seem to know how to play to their strengths on the court. Just like Curry, I am looking forward to seeing how good Holiday really is but I have a feeling that Curry will be the better pro. It's way too early to say so by statistics but It's my gut.

Hasheem Thabeet (92.5), 7'2" - He's tall. Very tall.

Oh yah, statistics? Well, he's improving his score every year! He blocks a whole bunch of shots (5.3) and grabs lots and lots of rebounds (13.6) and when he shoots they usually go in (64% FG). Seriously, those stats are impressive. I do wonder if he knows how to pass (0.6 assists per game) but really he is one of the best prospects at the center position since Greg Oden. The knock on him seems to be his basketball IQ but if he keeps improving the way he has been, he may just stumble into being one of the best centers in the league. Maybe not, but, at a 92.5 score, his stats when matched up to every other center in the past 25 years, doesn't come out half bad.

DeJuan Blair (92), 6'6" - NBrans is almost dead on when he says to just pass up on 6'6" power forwards. 99.9% of the time I would completely agree. DeJuan Blair is that other 0.1%. He is an absolute beast with a 7'3" wingspan! He is the fourth highest rated player (behind Blake Griffin, Stephen Curry and Lester Hudson) based on my main stat formulas (points, rebounds and assists only) in this draft class before negative modifiers are subtracted and secondary stats and intangibles are analyzed. There have been a couple recent 6'7" power forwards that have made an impact in the NBA. Let's compare stats with one shall we?

DeJuan Blair (92, Soph): 27.3 minutes, 1.2 assists, 12.3 boards, 15.7 points, 1.5 steals, 1.0 block, 59.3% FG.

Craig Smith (87.5, Senior): 36.3 minutes, 3.0 assists, 9.4 boards, 17.6 points, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks, 57.3% FG.

12.3 boards in 27.3 minutes is almost unheard of for a 6'6" power forward in the Big East. He even averages nearly 6 OFFENSIVE rebounds a game in only 27 minutes. I would actually compare Blair more to Paul Millsap and Millsap is turning out to be a very good player. Blair will be a force in the NBA but I think it will mostly be as a rebounder. Scoring against and defending NBA power forwards will be rough. I think that he will be drafted in the late teens somewhere so I doubt he will be on the board when the Kings pick which is fine with me. With all that being said, I still don't want to take a chance on a 6'6" power forward unless he can shoot the three or take 15 seconds to back down his opponent in the paint. Blair can't.

Jeff Teague (91.5), 6'1" - I don't know why, but when I watch him I get a little bit of a Mike Bibby vibe but I guess that's just me. I think it's because of his accurate set-shot three point stroke (44.1%) and that he's a scoring point guard. Actually, his stats are closer to what Nick Van Exel's were for whatever that's worth. At 23.5 ppg, Teague can really fill it up. As a sophomore he ranks very highly. Not too many sophomore point guards were much better than him as a scorer, outdoing past sophomore draftees such as Mike Bibby (21.4 ppg), Baron Davis (20.7 ppg) Chauncey Billups (23.4 ppg) and Gilbert Arenas (22.3 ppg). He even outscored highly praised shooting guard James Harden this season. Can he bring this scoring punch to the NBA is the question. Teague only dished out 4.4 assists per game which is way below par for top flight point guard prospects and his assist/turnover rate of 1.06/1 is frighteningly bad. Basically, by my stats, he really is a shooting guard that doesn't really play the point to set his teammates up. His steal rate of 2.3 is barely above average while his 48.5% FG shooting is rather impressive. Whoever picks Jeff Teague is getting a guard that will be able to score a lot. I think he would be a great pick for a team that has a ball-handling shooting guard like Dwyane Wade or Kobe Bryant or a team with great interior defense that needs a scoring point guard. I don't see too many teams like that though at least not in the range where Teague is expected to be drafted.

2009 NBA DRAFT – DALT99 SYSTEM PLAYER RANKINGS (Post #1)

dalt99 — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 16:12:00 -0000

(Finally) It's time for the results of my system rankings of all the players (of significance) in the 2009 NBA draft. In Post #2 I will begin analyzing some of the players. Before I get to the list, I want to briefly explain again what the system is and what it's for. (Note: Please forgive any grammar or spelling errors. This is a looong post so I'm sure I messed up somewhere)

I have been obsessed with basketball statistics ever since the Kings came to Sacramento. I was even an assistant coach and statistician for my school for two years. About six years ago in 2003, there was such a fuss as to who would be the better pro between LeBron James, Darko Milicic, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. To find out I decided to create a statistical system for the sole purpose of comparing current college basketball player's statistics to the college stats of current and former NBA players to see if I could project the NBA potential of current college (and European) players. I went back and ended up taking about a year to come up first with the system then to input all the best NBA player's college stats into the system. To my dismay I couldn't find a way to rank players like LeBron that never went to college. To rank the players, I decided to use a number scoring system from 0 to 105. (Note: Below is a brief description of what each number equates to towards a players assessed NBA potential.)

Besides the (most important) common stats such as points, rebounds, assists and FG%, the system factors in assist/turnover ratio, strength of schedule, height relative to position, athleticism and class. Basically, strength of schedule is self explanatory. For example, if two players have exactly the same stats (per 40 minutes) but one player plays for UCLA and the other for Sacramento State, guess which one has the higher potential? The Sac State player. Go Hornets!! Erm, sorry. What is interesting about the system is that some schools I have found, like Syracuse, will give the player a negative modifier because of the systems they run. Same with Duke, North Carolina and others. Some, like UCLA, Connecticut and Memphis, give a positive modifier. Height and position go together. Obviously a 6'4" point guard is fine but a 5'9" one usually has significant disadvantages. The athleticism modifier is the hardest one to gauge and is the only modifier in the system where my personal opinion comes in to play. I don't give a player a bonus for being extra athletic but he probably will get a negative modifier for being overtly non-athletic or extremely overweight. In this year's draft, Nick Calathes, Luke Harangody (who's pulled out now) and John Bryant have received this modifier. (Note: I want to emphasize that even though I may prefer certain players to others, all the scores are based solely on the player's stats and by comparing them to every other NBA player before them. I don't change or tamper with a score because of personal preferences for or against a player. In fact, there are times where I disagree with my system's findings! Like with Jason Thompson last year and Spencer Hawes before him. Oops!)

Lastly I definitely factor in class. A senior and a freshman with the exact same stats, height and level of competition are (usually) never equal. The freshman will get the bonus for his potential. Almost every player improves from his freshman to senior year. Not all, but most do and usually significantly, so yes I factor in class.

Of course there are things that I just can't factor in such as work ethic, being prone to injury, toughness, hustle, leadership, one-on-one defensive ability (besides steals and blocks), basketball IQ and good or bad personalities. That stuff I leave up to all the analysts, GMs, scouts and fans. I can't actually meet or watch any of these guys play on a regular basis so it's impossible to accurately factor these things in.

Score descriptions: Before the list, here is a description of what each player score represents based on their college stats:

100+: Superstar/MVP potential - The best players of all time. These are the franchise players that will be the ones you hear in the MVP talk at the end of the year. Shaq (105), Dr. J. (104), Olajuwon (103.5), Michael Jordan (102.5), Allen Iverson (102.5), Charles Barkley (100.5) and Chris Paul (100) are among the players to score in this group.

98-100: All-Star/Superstar potential - Players in this rank will usually become multiple all-stars and sometimes even superstars. Kevin Durant (99), Scottie Pippen (99), Chris Webber (99) and Clyde Drexler (99) are among the players to score in this group.

96-98: All-Star potential - Players in this rank will usually become multiple all-stars but rarely all-star starters. Paul Pierce (97.5), Elton Brand (97.5), Carlos Boozer (97) Brandon Roy (96.5) and Mitch Richmond (96) are among the players to score in this group.

93-96: Solid Starter/All-Star potential - A player in this rank should be a solid starter for his whole career and will usually make at least one appearance as an all-star at some point in his career. Rasheed Wallace (96), Carmelo Anthony (96), Mike Bibby (95.5), Al Horford (95.5), Rajon Rondo (93.5) and Gerald Wallace (93) are among the players to score in this group.

90-93: Solid Starter potential - The backbone of the NBA. These players usually won't make it to an all-star game but they should have solid NBA careers. Danny Granger (92.5), Ben Gordon (92), Lionel Simmons (91.5), Kevin Martin (91), Rodney Stuckey (91), Spencer Hawes (91) and Paul Millsap (90) are among the players to score in this group.

86-90: Fringe Starter/Solid Starter potential - The elite of the NBA bench players. These players will usually be the first players off the bench for good teams or solid starters on poorer teams without a star at the position they play. Troy Murphy (90), Marcus Camby (89.5), Jason Thompson (89), Ike Diogu (88.5), Marc Gasol (88.5), John Salmons (87.5), Leon Powe (87) and Francisco Garcia (86.5) are among the players to score in this group.

82-86: 6th Man/Fringe Starter potential - The lunch pail types of the NBA. These players are the backups to the starters and will usually start about 25% of the time in their career. They are usually good players with limitations or average players that excel in a specific area. They may be starters on a poor team (such as Corey Brewer, 84.5), on a team that needs that player's special skill (such as Earl Watson, 84.5) or because they are filling in for an injured starter. Carl Landry (84.5), Renaldo Balkman (84), Brandon Bass (83) and Channing Frye (82.5) are among the players to score in this group.

77-82: Career Reserve/6th Man potential - These are the energy guys of the NBA. These players almost never become solid starters in the NBA. About half scoring in this rank will be out of the league in 3 years while the other half will be able to find a team to stick with and have a long career bringing some needed energy off the bench. Bobby Jackson (81.5), Kenny Thomas (81.5), Trevor Ariza (81), Daniel Gibson (79.5) and Eddie House (79.5) are among the players to score in this group.

72-77: Career Reserve potential - These are the specialists of the NBA. About only 5% of players from this rank go on to start more than 10% of NBA games they play in and over half never even make it to sign a contract. Most of the players who score in this rank that go on to have long careers in the NBA are specialists - players that excel in a key area that a team might look for to fill holes or to use in certain situations such as a 3-pt marksman (JJ Redick, 73.5 and Steve Novak, 72), a shot blocker (Brian Skinner, 75.5), a banger/toughman (Eduardo Najera, 75.5) or a defensive specialist such as Randy Brown (74). Lawrence Funderburke (76.5), Justin Williams (76.5), Dahntay Jones (73.5) and Mikki Moore (72) are among the players to score in this group.

67-72: 12th Man/Career Reserve potential - The bench warmers and injured reserve of the NBA. Over 90% of players ranked in this group never sign an NBA contract. Similar to the rank above, the only players that make a long NBA career are specialists or the hustle/scrappers. Mateen Cleaves (71), Maurice Evans (69.5), Ronnie Price (68.5) and Patrick Ewing Jr. (67) are among the players to score in this group.

62-67: Fringe Player/12th Man potential - Only a handful of college players that find themselves in this rank have ever played a handful of games in the NBA. Duane Causwell (64), Daniel Ewing (64.5), Ryan Hollins (64.5) and Jermareo Davidson (63.5) are among the very few in this rank that have made it onto an NBA court.

0-62: Should Go Undrafted - A player in this range should not be drafted. Any GM that does draft someone in this rank should be punished.

2009 NBA Draft Rankings
 
  Player-Class School Pos. Score
1) Blake Griffin-So Oklahoma FC 103
2) Ricky Rubio-E Spain PG 100
3) Tyreke Evans-F Memphis G 99
4) Ty Lawson-J North Carolina PG 98
5) James Harden-So Arizona State SG 94.5
6) Stephen Curry-J Davidson G 93.5
7) Jrue Holiday-F UCLA G 93
8) Hasheem Thabeet-J Connecticut C 92.5
9) DeJuan Blair-So Pittsburgh FC 92
10) Jeff Teague-So Wake Forest PG 91.5
11) Jonny Flynn-So Syracuse PG 90.5
12) James Johnson-So Wake Forest F 90.5
13) Nick Calathes-So Florida GF 90.5
14) Brandon Jennings-E Italy PG 90
15) Terrence Williams-Se Louisville GF 89.5
16) DeMarre Carroll-Se Missouri PF 89.5
17) DeMar DeRosan-F USC GF 89
18) B.J. Mullens-F Ohio State C 88
19) Jordan Hill-J Arizona PF 87.5
20) Austin Daye-(So) Gonzaga F 87.5
21) A.J. Price-(J) Connecticut PG 87.5
22) Darren Collison-Se UCLA PG 87
23) Leo Lyons-(Se) Missouri FC 86.5
24) Taj Gibson-J USC PF 86.5
25) Chase Budinger-J Arizona SF 86
26) Eric Maynor -Se VCU PG 86
27) Lee Cummard-(Se) Brigham Young GF 86
28) Tyler Hansbrough-Se North Carolina PF 85.5
29) Nando De Colo-E France G 85.5
30) Danny Green-Se North Carolina GF 85
31) Rodrigue Beaubois-E France PG 85
32) Jerel McNeal-Se Marquette G 84.5
33) Gerald Henderson-J Duke G 84.5
34) Earl Clark-J Louisville F 84.5
35) Omri Casspi-E Israel F 84
36) Jodie Meeks-J Kentucky SG 84
37) Travis Holmes-Se Virginia Military G 84
38) John Bryant-Se Santa Clara C 84
39) Wayne Ellington-J North Carolina G 83.5
40) Sam Young-Se Pittsburgh GF 83
41) Sergio Llull-E Spain PG 83
42) Aaron Jackson-Se Duquesne PG 83
43) Jeff Pendergraph-Se Arizona State PG 82.5
44) Lester Hudson-Se Tenn-Martin PF 82.5
45) Jermaine Taylor-Se Central Florida G 82
46) Ben Woodside-Se North Dakota St. SG 81.5
47) Patrick Mills-So Saint Mary's PG 81
48) Marcus Thornton-Se LSU G 81
49) Byron Eaton-Se Oklahoma State PG 81
50) Tyrese Rice-Se Boston College PG 81
51) Derrick Brown-J Xavier F 81
52) Brandon Costner-J NC State SF 81
53) Chinemelu Elonu-J Texas A&M C 81
54) Dominic James-Se Marquette PG 80.5
55) Toney Douglas-Se Florida State G 80.5
56) Dionte Christmas-Se Temple GF 80
57) Jack McClinton-Se Miami (FL) G 80
58) Dar Tucker-So DePaul SG 80
59) Jeremy Pargo-Se Gonzaga PG 80
60) Paul Harris-J Syracuse GF 80
61) Antonio Anderson-Se Memphis GF 79.5
62) Robert Dozier-Se Memphis F 79
63) Jon Brockman-(Se) Washington PF 78.5
64) Levance Fields-Se Pittsburgh PG 78
65) Cedric Jackson-(Se) Cleveland State G 78
66) Chavis Holmes-Se Virginia Military G 77.5
67) Chris Lowe-Se Massachusetts PG 77.5
68) Henk Norel-E Spain C 77.5
69) Luke Nevill-Se Utah C 77
70) Alade Aminu-Se Georgia Tech PF 77
71) Devan Downey-Se South Carolina PG 76.5
72) Wesley Matthews-Se Marquette SG 76.5
73) Curtis Jerrells-Se Baylor PG 76.5
74) Shawn Taggart-J Memphis FC 76.5
75) Ahmad Nivins-Se Saint Joseph's PF 76
  Player-Class School Pos. Score
76) Josh Shipp-Se UCLA SG 76
77) Slava Kravtsov-E Ukraine C 76
78) Justin Dentmon-Se Washington PG 75
79) Tony Gaffney-Se Massachusetts PF 75
80) Emir Preldzic-E Turkey SF 75
81) Goran Suton-(Se) Michigan St. FC 74.5
82) A.D. Vassallo-Se Virginia Tech GF 74.5
83) Milenko Tepic-E Russia G 74.5
84) Dante Cunningham-Se Villanova PF 73
85) K.C. Rivers-(Se) Clemson GF 72.5
86) Lorrenzo Wade-Se San Diego State GF 72
87) Victor Claver-E Spain F 72
88) Josh Heytvelt-Se Gonzaga FC 71.5
89) Garrett Temple-Se LSU GF 71.5
90) Daniel Hackett-J USC PG 70
91) Vitor Faverani-E Spain FC 70
92) Randall Hanke-Se Providence C 69.5
93) Kevin Goffney-Se Chattanooga GF 69
94) Brett Winkelman-(Se) North Dakota St. F 69
95) Nicchaeus Doaks-(Se) Chattanooga F 68.5
96) Jonas Jerebko-E Italy F 68.5
97) Ade Dagunduro-Se Nebraska SG 68
98) Jeff Foote-Se Cornell C 66
99) Gasper Vidmar-E Turkey C 66
100) Jimmy Baron-Se Rhode Island G 65
101) DaJuan Summers-J Georgetown SF 65
102) Jeff Adrien-Se Connecticut PF 64.5
103) Stefon Jackson-(Se) UTEP SG 64.5
104) Alfred Aboya-Se UCLA PF 64.5
105) Wink Adams-(Se) UNLV PG 64.5
106) Patrick Beverley-J Arkansas PG 64
107) C.J. Anderson-(Se) Xavier SF 63.5
108) Brandon Ewing-Se Wyoming PG 63
109) Taylor Griffin-Se Oklahoma SF 62.5
110) Eric Devendorf-J Syracuse PG 62
111) Diamon Simpson-(Se) Saint Mary's PF 61.5
112) Kevin Tiggs-Se East Tenn. St. SG 61.5
113) Chris Bethel-Se Fordham SF 60.5
114) B.J. Raymond-Se Xavier GF 60.5
115) Kahiem Seawright-Se Rhode Island PF 60
116) Jerome Tillman-Se Ohio SF 60
117) Alonzo Gee-Se Alabama F 59.5
118) Tremaine Townsend-(Se) Cal St. Northridge PF 59.5
119) Alex Barnett-Se Dartmouth GF 59.5
120) Kyle McAlarney-Se Notre Dame PG 59.5
121) Orlando Mendez-Valdez-Se Western Kentucky PG 58.5
122) Robert Vaden-(Se) UAB G 57
123) Tony Danridge-Se New Mexico G 56.5
124) Matt Lawrence-Se Missouri SG 56
125) Greg Paulus-(Se) Duke PG 55.5
126) Austin Johnson-Se Oklahoma PG 55
127) Lewis Clinch-Se Georgia Tech G 53.5
128) A.J. Abrams-(Se) Texas PG 53
129) Tyson Johnson-Se Wyoming F 53
130) Kyle Spain-Se San Diego State GF 52.5
131) Russell Hicks-(Se) Florida Int. C 52.5
132) Rob Diggs-Se GWU F 51
133) Lamont Mack-Se Charlotte F 47.5
134) Connor Atchley-(Se) Texas FC 45.5
135) Marcus Ginyard-(Se) North Carolina G 43.5
136) Josh Akognon-Se Cal St. Fullerton PG 43
137) Matt Kingsley-Se Stephen Austin FC 41.5
138) Fendi Onobun-(Se) Arizona F 41
139) Wynton Witherspoon-(Se) GWU GF 40.5
140) Charlie Coley-Se Charlotte F 37
141) J'Nathan Bullock-Se Cleveland State SF 36
142) Bobby Frasor-Se North Carolina G 34
143) Andrew Lovedale-Se Davidson FC 34
144) Steve Harley-Se Nebraska G 33.5
145) Rogers Barnes-Se Morgan State G 20.5
(Please click HERE for the 2008 rankings)

Next Sacramento King - Tyreke Evans (I Just Feel It)

dalt99 — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 08:25:01 -0000

Next Sacramento King - Tyreke Evans (I Just Feel It)

I really feel that Rubio will be gone by #4 and Tyreke will be the pick. I would be all too happy. Ecstatic actually. I truly beleive that this guy will be a all-star multiple times. He has that kind of talent. 2008 McDonald's All American MVP - that's special. He's only18 too. This fanpost is to feature his best Youtube vids.

Another video here
Another here
Another here
Another here
Another here
Another here (Check out the 1:22 mark - that shit is crazy!)
Another here
Another here

Draft Combine interview

The Case for Ty Lawson - Statistically Speaking

dalt99 — Fri, 22 May 2009 02:35:38 -0000

via api.ning.com

*My systems rating of Ty Lawson: 99.0 (All-Star/Superstar)*

Many of you know about the college player statistical system that I have been using for the last few years. I unveiled it last year. This post isn’t really about my system, but it IS about statistics. It’s my case for drafting Ty Lawson with the 4th pick in the 2009 NBA draft.

The Kings' main position need is what? A point guard.

They need a point guard that can do four main things:

1. Defend.

2. Run a team and create shots for others, not just himself.

3. Shoot the three reliably.

4. High basketball IQ, play under control, is tough, is a leader and a winner.

Ty Lawson does all four and does them well.

1. He has quick feet and has one of the highest steal rates per minute of all point guards in the NCAA. Yes, he is barely 6’0 tall but so is Chris Paul.

2. He averaged NINE (9.0) assists per game per 40 minutes played. That is second only to Levance Fields among the top 50 NCAA point guard prospects this year.

3. Made almost half of his 3-pt attempts and almost 1/3 of his shots were threes.

4. Led his college team to the NCAA championship and was the best player on that team. He had nine steals in the NCAA championship game. Lawson went to the free throw line nearly six times per game. He is fearless going to the basket and will throw his body around. This season, he had one of the highest assist to turnover rates in NCAA history at 3.5/1.

Saving my best for last, there is one nearly SURE FIRE way to know that a point guard at the college level is going to be excellent in the NBA. Go to their stats page and look at their last two seasons of play. Get a calculator and look to see if they match ALL of the following criteria:

50% FG shooting or better
An average of over 15 points per 40 mintues
An average of over 6.0 assists per 40 minutes
An assist/turnover rate of 2:1 or better
An average of over 2.5 steals per 40 minutes

In the past 30 years, there are very few players that have done all of that in the same season. Here are the only 8 players I know of (along with the stats of their best NBA season) that have reached all 5 of those marks:

John Stockton (17.2 pts, 14.5 assists, 2.7 steals, 51.4 FG%, 41.6 3-pt%, 4.1/1 A/T rate)

Isiah Thomas (21.2 pts, 13.9 assists, 2.3 steals, 46.0 FG%, 3.76/1 A/T rate)

Rod Strickland (17.8 pts, 10.5 assists, 1.7 steals, 5.3 boards, 43.4 FG%, 3/1 A/T rate)

Gary Payton (24.2 pts, 8.9 assists, 1.9 steals, 6.5 boards, 34.0 3-pt%, 3.3/1 A/T rate)

Tim Hardaway (22.9 pts, 9.7 assists, 2.6 steals, 47.6 FG%, 38.5 3-pt%, 2.9/1 A/T rate)

Andre Miller (16.5 pts, 10.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 4.7 boards, 45.4 FG%, 3.6/1 A/T rate)

Antonio Daniels (11.2 pts, 4.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 43.8 FG%, 4.1/1 A/T rate)

Chris Paul (22.8 pts, 11.0 assists, 2.8 steals, 5.6 boards, 50.3 FG%, 36.4 3-pt%, 3.7/1 A/T rate)

Now, you can add Ty Lawson to that list.

That’s quite a select group which includes 3 (or 4 if you include Chris Paul) of the best point guards in the history of the NBA. Not only has Lawson pulled it off this season but last season as well and in his freshman year he only missed because his steal rate was 2.37. I don’t know if I personally think that Ty Lawson will be as good as some of the players listed above, but the stats are in his favor. Of course, you don’t have to have those five things to become a great point guard (Magic shot less than 50% as did Jason Kidd, etc.), but if you do have them, as you can see, so far, it’s a near (Antonio Daniels) guarantee that you will become an excellent NBA player. Lawson’s assist/turnover rate is phenomenal at 3.5:1. That high a number is almost unheard of in college and one of the highest in NCAA history. His 3-pt shooting has increased from 36% to 47% - the same % Chris Paul had coming out of college. Needless to say, I think that Lawson is underrated in this draft and should be a top 10 lottery pick – if not a top 5, even at 5’11". Just for comparison sake here are Ty Lawson’s junior stats next to Chris Paul’s sophomore stats (note: CP3 matched the above criteria in his freshman year):

TL: 29.9 min, 16.6 pts, 6.6 assists, 2.1 steals, 53.2 FG%, 47.2 3-pt%, 3.5:1 a/t

CP: 33.4 min, 15.3 pts, 6.6 assists, 2.4 steals, 45.1 FG%, 47.4 3-pt%, 2.4:1 a/t

Chris Paul rated at 100 so it’s not a shock to me to see Ty Lawson rated where he’s at. Am I saying Lawson will be as good as Paul?

NO.

All I am saying is that I pray that Petrie and the rest of the scouts take a VERY CLOSE and SERIOUS look at Lawson. Most mock drafts have him going anywhere from between 7 to 17 – same as where Westbrook was sitting at this point last year.

Statistically he’s the "next Chris Paul" but statistics can lie (yes, I said it) and I honestly do NOT think he will be, however I do hope that the Kings give him a very close look, to say the least.

Tyreke Evans Can't Shoot??

dalt99 — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 07:02:51 -0000

Tyreke Evans Can't Shoot??

I have heard so much about how Tyreke can't shoot because he supposedly didn't make an outside shot in his 33 point final performance against Missouri. Well, watching this footage, I don't see why he couldn't become a better shooter with maturity.

By the way, I wonder how many freshman guards in college could score 33 in a game without making an outside shot.

New Kings Players: First Game Prediction (w/Poll)

dalt99 — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 21:44:09 -0000

Hunches. A hunch is just a feeling you get in your gut that you may not be able to explain rationally.

I have a hunch about tonight's game. I am predicting that Rashad McCants will score 20+ points. Why? I have no clue. It's just a hunch but I can't shake it. Usually, when I have a hunch the exact opposite happens so I suppose we should expect to see McCants go 0-8 from the field with 6 turnovers or something.

We got to see a glimpse of what Andres Nocioni and Will Solomon can do on the court but tonight will be the first game that all the new players (besides Drew Gooden, who may be out for the rest of the year because of his groin injury) will be suited up and ready for action.

Does anybody think a certain player will have a good game? Any hunches out there besides mine? My question is, of the new players, who do you think will have the best game tonight? Nocioni is the likely candidate but I feel McCants will go off. In a good way hopefully. What do you think?

Poll

Out of the new players, who will have a good game tonight?

Andres Nocioni

52 votes

Will Solomon

3 votes

Ike Diogu

13 votes

Rashad McCants

14 votes

Cedric Simmons

0 votes

Calvin Booth

0 votes

None of the above. They will all play bad or not at all.

10 votes

92 votes | Poll has closed

	Player-Class	School	Pos.	Score
1)	Blake Griffin-So	Oklahoma	FC	103
2)	Ricky Rubio-E	Spain	PG	100
3)	Tyreke Evans-F	Memphis	G	99
4)	Ty Lawson-J	North Carolina	PG	98
5)	James Harden-So	Arizona State	SG	94.5
6)	Stephen Curry-J	Davidson	G	93.5
7)	Jrue Holiday-F	UCLA	G	93
8)	Hasheem Thabeet-J	Connecticut	C	92.5
9)	DeJuan Blair-So	Pittsburgh	FC	92
10)	Jeff Teague-So	Wake Forest	PG	91.5
11)	Jonny Flynn-So	Syracuse	PG	90.5
12)	James Johnson-So	Wake Forest	F	90.5
13)	Nick Calathes-So	Florida	GF	90.5
14)	Brandon Jennings-E	Italy	PG	90
15)	Terrence Williams-Se	Louisville	GF	89.5
16)	DeMarre Carroll-Se	Missouri	PF	89.5
17)	DeMar DeRosan-F	USC	GF	89
18)	B.J. Mullens-F	Ohio State	C	88
19)	Jordan Hill-J	Arizona	PF	87.5
20)	Austin Daye-(So)	Gonzaga	F	87.5
21)	A.J. Price-(J)	Connecticut	PG	87.5
22)	Darren Collison-Se	UCLA	PG	87
23)	Leo Lyons-(Se)	Missouri	FC	86.5
24)	Taj Gibson-J	USC	PF	86.5
25)	Chase Budinger-J	Arizona	SF	86
26)	Eric Maynor -Se	VCU	PG	86
27)	Lee Cummard-(Se)	Brigham Young	GF	86
28)	Tyler Hansbrough-Se	North Carolina	PF	85.5
29)	Nando De Colo-E	France	G	85.5
30)	Danny Green-Se	North Carolina	GF	85
31)	Rodrigue Beaubois-E	France	PG	85
32)	Jerel McNeal-Se	Marquette	G	84.5
33)	Gerald Henderson-J	Duke	G	84.5
34)	Earl Clark-J	Louisville	F	84.5
35)	Omri Casspi-E	Israel	F	84
36)	Jodie Meeks-J	Kentucky	SG	84
37)	Travis Holmes-Se	Virginia Military	G	84
38)	John Bryant-Se	Santa Clara	C	84
39)	Wayne Ellington-J	North Carolina	G	83.5
40)	Sam Young-Se	Pittsburgh	GF	83
41)	Sergio Llull-E	Spain	PG	83
42)	Aaron Jackson-Se	Duquesne	PG	83
43)	Jeff Pendergraph-Se	Arizona State	PG	82.5
44)	Lester Hudson-Se	Tenn-Martin	PF	82.5
45)	Jermaine Taylor-Se	Central Florida	G	82
46)	Ben Woodside-Se	North Dakota St.	SG	81.5
47)	Patrick Mills-So	Saint Mary's	PG	81
48)	Marcus Thornton-Se	LSU	G	81
49)	Byron Eaton-Se	Oklahoma State	PG	81
50)	Tyrese Rice-Se	Boston College	PG	81
51)	Derrick Brown-J	Xavier	F	81
52)	Brandon Costner-J	NC State	SF	81
53)	Chinemelu Elonu-J	Texas A&M	C	81
54)	Dominic James-Se	Marquette	PG	80.5
55)	Toney Douglas-Se	Florida State	G	80.5
56)	Dionte Christmas-Se	Temple	GF	80
57)	Jack McClinton-Se	Miami (FL)	G	80
58)	Dar Tucker-So	DePaul	SG	80
59)	Jeremy Pargo-Se	Gonzaga	PG	80
60)	Paul Harris-J	Syracuse	GF	80
61)	Antonio Anderson-Se	Memphis	GF	79.5
62)	Robert Dozier-Se	Memphis	F	79
63)	Jon Brockman-(Se)	Washington	PF	78.5
64)	Levance Fields-Se	Pittsburgh	PG	78
65)	Cedric Jackson-(Se)	Cleveland State	G	78
66)	Chavis Holmes-Se	Virginia Military	G	77.5
67)	Chris Lowe-Se	Massachusetts	PG	77.5
68)	Henk Norel-E	Spain	C	77.5
69)	Luke Nevill-Se	Utah	C	77
70)	Alade Aminu-Se	Georgia Tech	PF	77
71)	Devan Downey-Se	South Carolina	PG	76.5
72)	Wesley Matthews-Se	Marquette	SG	76.5
73)	Curtis Jerrells-Se	Baylor	PG	76.5
74)	Shawn Taggart-J	Memphis	FC	76.5
75)	Ahmad Nivins-Se	Saint Joseph's	PF	76