SB Nation User Blog: dan 2.0

Will Luis Ayala Solve The Bullpen Problems? (hint: um, no)

dan 2.0 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:59:16 -0000

So JCR is reporting that the Fish have agreed to terms with Luis Ayala, which makes sense since they've been linked to him for quite some time. As we all know, the Marlins have had a plethora of bullpen problems this season, ranging from overuse to misuse to general sucktitude. So is this the move that finally puts things in order? Perhaps the better question is whether it puts anything in order...

The fact that Ayala has been a much discussed name when it comes to teams looking for bullpen help seems like it should mean he's someone who will, you know, help bullpens. In a general sense, that's probably true. His numbers for the last few years have been those of a very average reliever, and if you're looking for help, odds are "average" is better than what you've got.

But there is one number where he has consistently underwhelmed. You may recall that a particularly handsome and intelligent person started tracking how players' win probability numbers differed from their expected contributions, and how this could be a proxy for measuring "clutch." That stat has evolved in underlying form but still measures the same thing: how much a player over- or under-performs in higher leverage situations. And Ayala has underperformed year after year, both in years where that "expected performance" was good and even when it was bad already.

If you don't put stock in WPA stats, look at his splits. In low leverage situations, batters hit .242/.286/.361 with a 3.14 K/BB ratio. In medium leverage, they hit .286/.334/.443 with a 3.35 K/BB ratio. But in high leverage situations, aka in big spots, batters hit .310/.361/.463 and his K/BB ratio drops to 2.38. In short, fifth or sixth inning? Put him out there. Get Pinto out of a jam in the 8th? Not so much.

OK, but how do we know that's not the Marlins plan already, just shoring up the early relief. Well for one, you wouldn't go out and get a guy to do that, especially considering the number of so-called "live arms" the Marlins have. But much more telling are the reports of his last days with his previous team.

As Twins blogger extraordinaire (now national reporter extraordinaire) Aaron Gleeman noted the other day, the reason the Twins DFA'd Ayala is that he wanted to pitch in the eighth inning, and the Twins felt this was, frankly, a bad idea. The Star-Tribune reported manager Ron Gardenhire's comments as:

He wanted an eighth-inning role; that’s why he signed over here. He wasn’t pitching well enough to be an eighth-inning guy. So there you have it.
His thoughts were if we gave him the ball in that eighth inning, he’d be able to do the job. My thoughts are if you’re not getting them out, you’re not going to pitch in the eighth inning. We’re trying to win. So there’s your difference.

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that a big part of the reason Ayala is signing with the Marlins is that they promised him he'd get the chance to be that eighth inning guy. After all, we haven't exactly had the best performance in high leverage situations, so the position isn't locked down. The problem, as noted above, is that Ayala is almost exactly wrong for such a job.

Heck, when the Twins first signed Ayala, Gleeman broke down why it wasn't a big upgrade for them, ultimately determining his projection as "the fifth-best reliever in a good AL bullpen." We don't have a good AL bullpen right now, so it's not like he's going to make things worse in terms of who he displaces. But he's not going to make things any better, and reading between the lines, it would appear the Marlins are just adding another name to the list of guys who just can't get it done.

The #Marlins have come to terms with RHP Luis Ayala. He'll get a few outings at AAA New Orleans...

dan 2.0 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:34:59 -0000

The #Marlins have come to terms with RHP Luis Ayala. He'll get a few outings at AAA New Orleans before joining the team.

@JCRMarlinsbeat (John C. Rodriguez - Sun-Sentinel)

Bullpen Usage Tables

dan 2.0 — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:11:29 -0000

Bullpen Usage Tables

I really like this. And with the numerous bullpen abuses the Marlins have suffered (slash put themselves through) this year, it is an especially valuable tool. See at a glance who has thrown how many innings (and pitches) in the last few days. Plus relevant stats for that period.

I can see a new game coming out of this. We'll call it "Fredi Can't Possibly Use Him Today" Yes, it's come to this.

He's doing fine. He's one of those guys you characterize as a winner because he'll find something...

dan 2.0 — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:50:49 -0000

He's doing fine. He's one of those guys you characterize as a winner because he'll find something to do during the course of a game to help you win a ballgame.

Fredi Gonzalez, on *sigh* Emilio Bonifacio

RT @MarlinsMedia: RHP Matt Lindstrom placed on 15-day DL with sprained right elbow. Rhp Chris...

dan 2.0 — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 20:01:24 -0000

RT @MarlinsMedia: RHP Matt Lindstrom placed on 15-day DL with sprained right elbow. Rhp Chris Leroux recalled from AA Jacksonville.

@JCRMarlinsbeat

A Tale of Two Pitchers: New Pitch F/X Leaderboard at BtB

dan 2.0 — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 16:17:28 -0000

A tough call on whether to put this as a Fanpost or Fanshot. Not nearly as involved as most of my -posts, but I have more to say than just a -shot. Whatevs.

Anyway, Harry Pavlidis just posted updated Pitch F/X leaderboards over at Beyond The Boxscore. You may recall my discussing earlier versions in Gamethreads, and usually K-Lero's place on them. This current update is for starters only, so while Kiko is out of the discussion, you will notice one specific stat that jumps out as it pertains to the Fish.

If you scroll down the boards, you'll see a stat called SLGCON. As you may be able to decipher, this is the slugging percentage allowed on contact. Or in simpler terms, how hard a pitcher gets hit (when he gets hit, that is).

The starter with the lowest slugging percentage on contact? Joshua Michael Johnson, with a miniscule 0.388. He basically turns hitters into Chone Figgins, power-wise.

But the starter with the highest slugging percentage on contact? Carlos Enrique Nolasco. When hitters make contact on Nolasco, they're slugging 0.686. That's an easy one to put into perspective: there's only player in the history of baseball to slug .686 for a career: Babe Ruth, he of the .690. Heck, only fifty times has it ever been done in a single season.

Now obviously it's different, in that one is just on contact and the other is all balls. We're not talking "slugging percentage allowed" but just on balls put in play. Moreover, as you've probably read a million times (though less so lately), Ricky has been one of the most "unlucky" pitchers in baseball in terms of the runs you'd expect from a pitcher with his peripherals. Whether this explains how that's possible or why it may not matter is a topic for later, more in-depth discussion.

Is Gaby About To Be The New 3B?

dan 2.0 — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 00:36:30 -0000

Usually when I've updated the Organizational Depth Chart, it's just a bunch of meaningless moves around the affiliates (well meaningless to us, at least; I'm sure those guys are very interested). But seeing the names go up and down, apparently I've also learned who a few of the lower guys are. It was that subconscious memory that made me stop a bit when I saw the following:

06/19/2009 Assigned New Orleans Zephyrs Matt Craig 3B Matt Craig assigned to New Orleans Zephyrs from GCL Marlins.

06/19/2009	Assigned	New Orleans Zephyrs	Matt Craig	3B Matt Craig assigned to New Orleans Zephyrs from GCL Marlins.

This move could very well be the final step in Gaby Sanchez getting his call-up, replacing Bonifacio at third.

A week ago, JCR reported that Gaby was being played exclusively at third for New Orleans, and speculated that meant he was being prepped to take over the hot corner. That's all well and good, but what does it have to do with Matt Craig? Well I'll tell you if you stop being so pushy.

Anyway, I recognized Craig's name as a former starter, which would require updating the ODC lineup. I had only recently decided to reflect the change of Gaby being the starter at 3B, so I wasn't sure what to do with Craig, who had previously been the starter there. That's when I checked the logs. Craig was sent to the Gulf Coast League on June 6. Gaby was sent to New Orleans on... say it with me now... June 6. It could be a coincidence, that Craig needed some rehabbing at the same exact time Gaby was sent down. Or it could be that Craig was sent down because Gaby was taking his spot - which he ended up doing.

And so it could now be a coincidence, that Craig is back at the same time Gaby had gotten used to 3B and Bonifacio was terrible (oh wait, that's all the time). Or it could be that Craig is back to regain his spot, which is about to be vacated because Gaby is about to get the call.

We shall see. But if it happens, I want an Ichthy point.

Mike Lowell is excited about the Marlins new ballpark. He lives 10 mins from OB site. Plans on...

dan 2.0 — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 14:40:13 -0000

Mike Lowell is excited about the Marlins new ballpark. He lives 10 mins from OB site. Plans on attending games when he retires

@JoeFrisaro

Sean West Flight Paths

dan 2.0 — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 14:58:26 -0000

Firstly, I've got to point everybody in the direction of Harry Pavlidis' tutorial on how to make your own Pitch F/X flight paths, including handy-dandy Excel template. Combined with BrooksBaseball's "tabular data" feature and honestly, I think anybody could whip them up.

And since I just happen to be 'anybody,' I figured I'd give it a go. So may I now present, Sean West in flight paths...

Hooray! (click for bigger version)

A few explanations are in order. First, this is the aggregate data from both of his starts thus far. So what is charted as his fastball (FF) is actually the average of all the fastballs he has thrown. Second, I didn't really bother to fix the Gameday pitch classifications. There were a few odd two-seamers and a cutter, all of which I just collected into the FF class. What's probably more important is that we know West actually has two sliders: a hard slider and a slower, slurvier one. If I wanted to (slash, you know, had the aptitude) I could dig down and attempt to decipher the split. But since this was my first time out, and since this isn't really anything analysis-oriented, I just went with the Gameday SL classification.

You could probably eyeball any number of takeaways from the paths (the late horizontal break on the change is the one thing that kinda sorta stands out to me), but really it's just fun to look at. Not to mention we're talking 12 innings of work here. I suppose I could have waited until after tonight to have another game's worth, but I don't have that kind of patience (or, tomorrow, the time).

Like I said, really anybody can do this stuff now (it's just a matter of elbow grease if you're using Brooks' data, since you have to go a game at a time). But I suppose if there's anything you really want to see, I could take a shot at it. I mean, I probaby won't (let's say it's due to time) but I could. I definitely will do K-Lero at some point. I've got half a mind to look at Josh The Ace vs. Josh The Ace: JJ vs. Beckett. Who knows? All that matters is that we can path them, we have the technology.

Stanton Showing Better Approach

dan 2.0 — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 17:54:36 -0000

Stanton Showing Better Approach

Pretty big Baseball America post on Stanton's much-improved strikeout rate.

Stanton spent the first two months of the 2008 season striking out in one-third of his trips to the plate. But since then, he has shown steady improvement, and scouts have taken notice. Stanton, who didn’t turn 19 until November, started striking out less and walking more. Part of the improved walk rate has nothing to do with Stanton’s approach but with the way opposing pitchers have been approaching him lately. But scouts say the young slugger also has been waiting for better pitches to hit, allowing his power to manifest itself in game situations.