SB Nation User Blog: dan 2.0

Jayson Stark on JJ and The More Homers Than Losses Club

dan 2.0 — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 17:57:51 -0000

Nevermind the fact that he had a career .167 slugging percentage (4 doubles) going into the season. At 11-2 with 3 homers and maybe 10 more starts to go, the question is whether he can make it stick.

Besides being the official Best Pitcher in Baseball Whom Nobody Would Recognize if He Sat Next to Them at a Diner, Marlins ace Josh Johnson can also swing that Louisville Slugger.

And because of that spectacular multi-tasking acumen of his, he has put himself on the verge of entering one of the most fun baseball clubs ever invented -- the More Homers than Losses Club.

OK, so Three Strikes just invented that club about 30 seconds ago. But it's still one fun group.

Johnson is 11-2 on the mound this season. But the really big news is that he also hit his third homer of the year last week. So if you're calculating along at home, you'll see that really is more homers (3) than losses (2).

The Three Strikes Research Task Force spent way too long this week looking at all starting pitchers in the live-ball era who pitched 150 innings or more in a season to see how many of them had more homers than losses. And here's what that task force discovered:

If Josh Johnson can just keep going deep, or -- if that home-run-trot part of the act isn't working for him -- keep from losing for another couple of months, he would become only the third full-time starting pitcher since 1920 to enter that prestigious MHRTL Club.

The last man to do it: Don Newcombe in 1955 (7 homers, 5 losses).

The previous man to do it: Art Nehf in 1924 (5 homers, 4 losses).

And that's it. No Mike Hampton. No Carlos Zambrano. No Don Drysdale. No Wes Ferrell. They came. They pitched. They swatted up a storm. And it still wasn't enough to get them into the More Homers than Losses Club. You can look them all up.

Place Bets Now.

Poll

Will Josh Johnson finish the year with more HRs than losses?

Yes

41 votes

No

22 votes

What am I, a psychic?

14 votes

77 votes | Poll has closed

Undeniable Proof That The Marlins Will Win The 2009 World Series!

dan 2.0 — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 20:51:43 -0000

Tonight, Nick Johnson will join the Florida Marlins mid-season and wear the #20. Consider the following:

1997: Darren Daulton joins the Florida Marlins mid-season and wears the #20. The end result?

I know what you're saying: "Dan, that's just a coincidence. Guys join teams all the time and there are only so many jersey numbers to go around. It's not like there's another instance of this happening." OH REALLY?

2003: Miguel Cabrera joins the Florida Marlins mid-season and wears the #20. End result?

See? UNDENIABLE. Miami-Dade, start making those parade plans now.

The Padres are getting all kinds of hits on closer Heath Bell -- almost a dozen teams have...

dan 2.0 — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 03:32:02 -0000

The Padres are getting all kinds of hits on closer Heath Bell -- almost a dozen teams have expressed interest -- and not surprisingly, the Florida Marlins have been among the most aggressive teams, reports ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.

The Marlins have had issues at the back end of their bullpen for much of the season, and Bell would solidify that spot. The Padres have made it clear to other teams that while they are not intent on moving Bell, they will be willing to make a trade if somebody makes an aggressive offer that can help the San Diego organization in the long run. Bell, an NL All-Star this year, has converted 25 of 26 save chances, while compiling a 2.01 ERA.

ESPN Rumor Central

BA: Midseason Top 25 Prospects

dan 2.0 — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 16:52:28 -0000

BA: Midseason Top 25 Prospects

Fish have two of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball. Stanton is #2, Morrison #10.

Quick, let's package them for Arthur Rhodes!

Will Luis Ayala Solve The Bullpen Problems? (hint: um, no)

dan 2.0 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:59:16 -0000

So JCR is reporting that the Fish have agreed to terms with Luis Ayala, which makes sense since they've been linked to him for quite some time. As we all know, the Marlins have had a plethora of bullpen problems this season, ranging from overuse to misuse to general sucktitude. So is this the move that finally puts things in order? Perhaps the better question is whether it puts anything in order...

The fact that Ayala has been a much discussed name when it comes to teams looking for bullpen help seems like it should mean he's someone who will, you know, help bullpens. In a general sense, that's probably true. His numbers for the last few years have been those of a very average reliever, and if you're looking for help, odds are "average" is better than what you've got.

But there is one number where he has consistently underwhelmed. You may recall that a particularly handsome and intelligent person started tracking how players' win probability numbers differed from their expected contributions, and how this could be a proxy for measuring "clutch." That stat has evolved in underlying form but still measures the same thing: how much a player over- or under-performs in higher leverage situations. And Ayala has underperformed year after year, both in years where that "expected performance" was good and even when it was bad already.

If you don't put stock in WPA stats, look at his splits. In low leverage situations, batters hit .242/.286/.361 with a 3.14 K/BB ratio. In medium leverage, they hit .286/.334/.443 with a 3.35 K/BB ratio. But in high leverage situations, aka in big spots, batters hit .310/.361/.463 and his K/BB ratio drops to 2.38. In short, fifth or sixth inning? Put him out there. Get Pinto out of a jam in the 8th? Not so much.

OK, but how do we know that's not the Marlins plan already, just shoring up the early relief. Well for one, you wouldn't go out and get a guy to do that, especially considering the number of so-called "live arms" the Marlins have. But much more telling are the reports of his last days with his previous team.

As Twins blogger extraordinaire (now national reporter extraordinaire) Aaron Gleeman noted the other day, the reason the Twins DFA'd Ayala is that he wanted to pitch in the eighth inning, and the Twins felt this was, frankly, a bad idea. The Star-Tribune reported manager Ron Gardenhire's comments as:

He wanted an eighth-inning role; that’s why he signed over here. He wasn’t pitching well enough to be an eighth-inning guy. So there you have it.
His thoughts were if we gave him the ball in that eighth inning, he’d be able to do the job. My thoughts are if you’re not getting them out, you’re not going to pitch in the eighth inning. We’re trying to win. So there’s your difference.

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that a big part of the reason Ayala is signing with the Marlins is that they promised him he'd get the chance to be that eighth inning guy. After all, we haven't exactly had the best performance in high leverage situations, so the position isn't locked down. The problem, as noted above, is that Ayala is almost exactly wrong for such a job.

Heck, when the Twins first signed Ayala, Gleeman broke down why it wasn't a big upgrade for them, ultimately determining his projection as "the fifth-best reliever in a good AL bullpen." We don't have a good AL bullpen right now, so it's not like he's going to make things worse in terms of who he displaces. But he's not going to make things any better, and reading between the lines, it would appear the Marlins are just adding another name to the list of guys who just can't get it done.

The #Marlins have come to terms with RHP Luis Ayala. He'll get a few outings at AAA New Orleans...

dan 2.0 — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:34:59 -0000

The #Marlins have come to terms with RHP Luis Ayala. He'll get a few outings at AAA New Orleans before joining the team.

@JCRMarlinsbeat (John C. Rodriguez - Sun-Sentinel)

Bullpen Usage Tables

dan 2.0 — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 19:11:29 -0000

Bullpen Usage Tables

I really like this. And with the numerous bullpen abuses the Marlins have suffered (slash put themselves through) this year, it is an especially valuable tool. See at a glance who has thrown how many innings (and pitches) in the last few days. Plus relevant stats for that period.

I can see a new game coming out of this. We'll call it "Fredi Can't Possibly Use Him Today" Yes, it's come to this.

He's doing fine. He's one of those guys you characterize as a winner because he'll find something...

dan 2.0 — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:50:49 -0000

He's doing fine. He's one of those guys you characterize as a winner because he'll find something to do during the course of a game to help you win a ballgame.

Fredi Gonzalez, on *sigh* Emilio Bonifacio

RT @MarlinsMedia: RHP Matt Lindstrom placed on 15-day DL with sprained right elbow. Rhp Chris...

dan 2.0 — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 20:01:24 -0000

RT @MarlinsMedia: RHP Matt Lindstrom placed on 15-day DL with sprained right elbow. Rhp Chris Leroux recalled from AA Jacksonville.

@JCRMarlinsbeat

A Tale of Two Pitchers: New Pitch F/X Leaderboard at BtB

dan 2.0 — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 16:17:28 -0000

A tough call on whether to put this as a Fanpost or Fanshot. Not nearly as involved as most of my -posts, but I have more to say than just a -shot. Whatevs.

Anyway, Harry Pavlidis just posted updated Pitch F/X leaderboards over at Beyond The Boxscore. You may recall my discussing earlier versions in Gamethreads, and usually K-Lero's place on them. This current update is for starters only, so while Kiko is out of the discussion, you will notice one specific stat that jumps out as it pertains to the Fish.

If you scroll down the boards, you'll see a stat called SLGCON. As you may be able to decipher, this is the slugging percentage allowed on contact. Or in simpler terms, how hard a pitcher gets hit (when he gets hit, that is).

The starter with the lowest slugging percentage on contact? Joshua Michael Johnson, with a miniscule 0.388. He basically turns hitters into Chone Figgins, power-wise.

But the starter with the highest slugging percentage on contact? Carlos Enrique Nolasco. When hitters make contact on Nolasco, they're slugging 0.686. That's an easy one to put into perspective: there's only player in the history of baseball to slug .686 for a career: Babe Ruth, he of the .690. Heck, only fifty times has it ever been done in a single season.

Now obviously it's different, in that one is just on contact and the other is all balls. We're not talking "slugging percentage allowed" but just on balls put in play. Moreover, as you've probably read a million times (though less so lately), Ricky has been one of the most "unlucky" pitchers in baseball in terms of the runs you'd expect from a pitcher with his peripherals. Whether this explains how that's possible or why it may not matter is a topic for later, more in-depth discussion.