Interesting story from the Washington Post.

VIERA, FLA. -- In 1998, his rookie season, Chicago Cubs phenom Kerry Wood started 26 games, throwing 2,840 pitches and striking out 233 batters. Nine times he threw more than 120 pitches in a game. For perspective, the Washington Nationals had one game last season in which their starter threw more than 120 pitches.

Jim Riggleman, now the manager in Washington, happened to manage the Cubs in 1998. On Sunday, he compared his latest phenom, Stephen Strasburg, to Wood, acknowledging that "there are a lot of similarities. Very similar talents."

But Riggleman also admitted regret about his handling of Wood, who started his rookie season as a 20-year-old. True, the Cubs were in a pennant race, and regard league-wide for pitch limits didn't match the current adherence. But Riggleman offered no excuses.

"I think if anything that I learned from it, having to do it over I probably would have pitched Kerry less," Riggleman said. "At the time that we had Kerry, my recollection of any criticism I had was 'Why did you take him out of the game?' After the fact it's 'Well, you pitched him too much.'

I have all kinds of respect for Al, and I absolutely support the need for optimism regarding a franchise that hasn't won a championship in 100 years.

Still, I have to say, Al's player projections (I'm referring to his original ones, not the combined averages of everyone who's made predictions) share one characteristic: Too optimistic.

Just looking at the eight hitters he's profiled so far (Soto, Fukodome, Lee, Pie, Soriano, Theriot, Ramirez, DeRosa) I notice that he doesn't predict anyone to have an off year. Not only that - he's forecasting what I'd consider career or nearly career years for Lee, Ramirez and Soriano, and is expecting Fukodome to have no trouble at all adjusting to a new league/new country (maybe this is possible - but then again, he may not be the second coming of Ichiro).

In sum, Al expects these 8 players to combine for 171 homers (and this is including Theriot, Pie and Soto - none of whom have demonstrated much power in the MLB so far). That means the Cubs as a team will hit well over 200 homers. I hope so. But I wouldn't count on it after the team combined for just 151 last year and only added one offensive player of any note during the offseason. He also says not a single one of these players will hit under .275. I'd love to see that, believe me. But I don't think it's going to happen. I particularly have my doubts whether Pie can go from .215 to .275. I hope - believe me - but I have doubts.

The pitching projections also seem too optimstic, though a bit more restrained. I suppose we can hope Zambrano's ERA falls by almost 50 points from last year, and that Hill develops into one of the elite pitchers in the NL (as Al's projections predict), but then again, what are the odds of both of those things happening the same year?

I hope Al is right. If he is, it will be one exciting summer. But on the other hand, one has to expect at least a few players to have off years in 2008. If all the players perform as Al is predicting, the Cubs have no excuse not to go all the way.

Hard times for former Cub Lary Sorensen:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/chi-08-sorensonfeb08,1,980745.story

Sad to see.

Sorensen was basically done by the time he pitched for the Cubs. But in 1978 with the Brewers he went 18-12 with a 3.21 ERA and pitched more than 280 innings and 17 complete games at age 22.

With the Cubs in 1985 he was 3-7 with a 4.26 ERA.

Apparently, Sorensen has spoken at schools about the dangers of alcohol. Looks like he hasn't been taking his own advice.

On SI.com, Bill James today listed who he thinks are the top-50 young players (under age 29) in baseball today.

Not a single Cub made the list, and Prince Fielder was ranked number one. Argh!

Seriously, what does it say about the Cubs' system of talent hunting that not a single player was in the top 50? Nothing good. I could try to quibble with James, and say that Carlos Zambrano should be on the list (he's 26 and deserved a place, in my opinion), but other than that, it's hard to think of a young Cub who deserves to be here.

James also breaks down the young talent team by team, and the Cubs finish 29th. Zambrano is the only A-class young talent on the team, according to James, while Rich Hill and Carlos Marmol get "B"s and Theriot, Marshall and Murton rate Cs.

Thank you, Rick Morrissey, for writing the column that had to be written in today's Sunday Tribune on Dusty Baker and his managing in the 2003 playoffs.

After two years that I've spent on this site trying to defend Dusty's moves in Game Six, which I was at, I'm finally getting some backing. I'll let Morrissey speak for himself:

"You still can hear the moaning long after (Baker's) departure. Why, why didn't he take Mark Prior out of Game 6 when the Cubs were five outs away from going to the World Series? I don't know. Maybe it's because Prior had a three-hit shutout going into the 8th inning, and he was the Cubs' best pitcher. Perhaps it was because setup man Kyle Farnsworth didn't inspire a whole lot of confidence and Baker liked his chances with a pitcher who had gone 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA during the regular season."

Couldn't have said it better myself.

I'm not a wild-eyed Baker fan; in fact, I think he was awful in many ways - especially personality - and his strange attachment to certain over-the-hill players. But I'm sick and tired of hearing how Dusty ruined Mark Prior through over-use. As Morrissey points out, one study that analyzed pitchers from 2000 to 2006 found that Baker's starters averaged 3.68 pitches per start more than they would have been expected to throw under certain conditions.

"In other words," Morrissey writes. "Baker was not a pitcher killer." As I've been saying.

He notes that Prior's injury problems could have started in college or the minors - or under Baker. Nobody knows. "But that hasn't stopped fans and media members, many of them newly minted experts in biomechanics and kinesiology, from blaming Baker for Prior's undoing."

Indeed.

When the Cubs head down to Florida to play the Marlins next week, it could be the Cubs who have home-field advantage, at least the way I see it.

Attendance lately at the Marlins' games has been around 10,000 - officially, anyway. But according to the Tribune, only about 400 fans were on hand when the first pitch was thrown in a recent game. Assuming thousands of Cub fans show up, as they've been doing at other ballparks around the league, these games could end up being like home games for the Cubs, and give them one more advantage as they play a team that talent-wise, isn't in the Cubs' league.

Sure beats what the Brewers have to do: head to Atlanta for four games against a team with a winning record that's still nominally in the wild-card race. I hope the Brewers have to listen to lots of "Tomahawk Chops" while they're down there!

For anyone who was wondering, it has now been 21 games, spanning 82 at-bats, since Derrek Lee has homered. His last homer came on June 3.

Now it's nice that he's batting .350, but I didn't expect him to turn into Rod Carew this year, and I doubt anyone else did, either. With Barrett gone, and now Jones probably being traded (not that he was hitting homers, anyway), the Cubs really need Lee to start hitting with some pop again.

The six homers he's had so far this year put him on pace for around 13. We need more than that from Lee. It's possible, I suppose, that his injury from last year is affecting his power. I can't think of any other reason.

The Tribune reported today that Kerry Wood was scheduled to have his first bullpen session since spring training. With the rain, it's unclear if he got it in today or if he had to wait until tomorrow. It's possible he did it indoors.

Anyway, I like Kerry a lot and hope he makes it back. The Tribune says he's eyeing an early-August return after a minor league rehab. However, given his history, I doubt he'll get through the minor league rehab without re-injuring himself.

I wonder if he's one more injury away from announcing his retirement at age 29. More and more, he's looking like this era's Mark Fidrych (although he did have a few effective years in the majors, unlike Fidrych, who only had one. Fidrych's one year, however, was far better than any of the healthy years Kerry had.)

From CNNSI.com:

The start of the World Series is being pushed back an extra day to Oct. 24, meaning Game 7 is scheduled for November for the first time. Because of extra off-days during the postseason, a team sweeping the NL championship series would have eight days off before its World Series opener.

MY THOUGHTS:

I think this is a lousy idea, and it's all about pleasing TV advertisers (they want the World Series to start in the middle of the week, when viewership tends to be higher.)

So to make the advertisers happy, the World Series is more likely than ever to be played in inclement weather. Let's assume (just for fun) that the Cubs are in the 2007 World Series. And let's assume (because I don't know yet) that Game Seven is a home game for them. And let's assume it occurs Nov. 1 (though since baseball hasn't specified, I suppose it could be as late as Nov. 2).

The average high in Chicago on Nov. 1 is 53, and the average low is 40. But on some November firsts in recent Chicago history, the temperature has failed to climb out of the 30s, and has fallen into the 20s at night (and of course, games would be played at night, this being the World Series). Even with average temperatures for that time of year, November is far from an ideal time to be outside in Chicago trying to decide the seventh game of the World Series. Snow is a distinct possibility.

I'm not saying the weather in Chicago 10 days before Nov. 1 would necessarily be a picnic, but the odds are worse as you get further toward winter, obviously.

It's a shame that with all the extra layers of playoffs, and all the extra off days for TV, the World Series has now become a November event (50 years ago, it was usually over before mid-October.)

It's also a shame that a team might have an 8-day gap between post-season games, as this article stated. I don't think anyone (besides the advertisers and perhaps the fat cats who run baseball) can believe this is good for players (or for fans, who'd be forced to twiddle their thumbs for so long waiting to see another game).

I just wanted to give kudos to Lou Piniella for his strategy with Zambrano this season.

A few days ago, I read in the paper that Lou said he expects to start Zambrano every fifth day, even if there's an off-day in between, meaning that Zambrano will get six starts in April. This means, to my reading, anyway, that Piniella will skip the fifth starter when he has a chance and give Zambrano the start throughout the season.

Hopefully, this means Zambrano can get 34 or 35 starts, instead of 32 or 33. To me, it makes all the sense in the world to go with your best starter as often as possible, at least if you're trying to win. (It also makes sense from the standpoint of a fan - I for one would rather see Zambrano start a game I've paid $40 to watch than Wade Miller).

I understand that you need to keep your fifth starter in the mix, and not let them languish when there's an off day, but there's no reason at all why that pitcher can't go to the bullpen on those occasions.

Looking today at my 1979 Cubs official roster book, I found the following interesting facts:

Now seems as good a time as any to speculate on what Al's top 10 Cub list will look like.

Here are the best Cubs I can think of who haven't yet appeared in the top 100, in no particular order:

Ernie Banks
Ron Santo
Billy Williams
Fergie Jenkins
Cap Anson
Three Finger Brown
Gabby Hartnett
Sammy Sosa
Billy Herman
Ryne Sandberg

There's no longer any question about the players. What's going to be interesting is the order. Was Sandberg or Herman the best second baseman in Cub history (my vote is for Sandberg, who had much better power and was a better fielder than Herman)? Was Jenkins or Brown the best pitcher? Was Sammy Sosa better than Billy Williams? How does Cap Anson, who played in the 19th century, fit in with these 20th century players? How much does Sosa get docked due to his attitude and possible steroid use?

I won't even try to make a top 10 list (that's Al's job, and he's done a very good one so far). But of course, anyone else is welcome to insert these players into an order they see fit. Then we can compare with what Al ultimately decides. I look forward to the next 10 days!

With all the TV shows from 30 and 40 years ago now becoming available on DVD, I'm wondering why WGN doesn't do the same thing with old Cub broadcasts. I know I'd be a buyer. Imagine some of the great games they must have in their library, hidden away for so many years.

Games I'd like to own:

The 23-22 loss to the Phillies in 1979, the 10-9 miracle comeback win against the Astros in 1989, the Kerry Wood 20-strikeout game, the no-hitters thrown by Ken Holtzman and Milt Pappas, the 16-15 win over the Reds that I remember so well from 1977, some of the great pitching duels between Fergie Jenkins and Bob Gibson. Even the 21-inning loss to the Dodgers in 1982 (which I was at). What a thrill it would be to see Lee Elia go face-to-face with Eric Gregg again - the highlight of that long game.

I'd include the "Sandberg game" from 1984, but that was a national telecast, not WGN.

Imagine if one could buy these broadcasts, including commercials, pre-game and post-game, on DVD. There'd be a mad rush to the stores from people like us excited to hear Jack Brickhouse, Harry Caray, Lou Boudreau, Steve Stone and even Milo Hamilton again. And it would be a treat to see those "Murph's 76" and "Lowenbrau" beer ads for the first time in years. Or how about Pat Sumerall advertising for True Value Hardware?

Does WGN still have these games tucked away in its vault? I suppose it's not likely that it has every game of the thousands it's aired, but I know WGN kept at least a few selected broadcasts. During the winter of 1979/80, for example, I remember very well that WGN re-broadcast the 23-22 game from the previous May. A game that infamous is almost certainly still around, but some of the other games I mentioned may have disappeared.

Is there anyone else out there who agrees with me? How could we petition WGN to release whatever broadcasts it still has? And which other game broadcasts would you want to see again?

I apologize if someone has already written a diary with these projections, but I just picked up my Sporting News Fantasy Baseball guide and thought I'd post the magazine's projections for some key Cub players, along with my thoughts:

Alfonso Soriano: 623 AB, 106 runs, 37 homers, 96 RBI, 36 SB, .272 avg

Actually, that would be a downturn from last year. I hope he does better than that for the money he's going to be making.

Derrek Lee: 578 AB, 106 runs, 37 homers, 102 RBI, 12 SB, .290 average

Basically, they expect him to make a nearly complete comeback to his old, pre-injury self. Hope they're right and that the wrist doesn't bother him.

Aramis Ramirez: 538 AB, 88 runs, 35 homers, 106 RBI, .304 average.

I'll take it.

Mark DeRosa: 460 AB, 67 runs, 10 homers, 62 RBI, .274 average.

About what you'd expect. Not worth the money, really.

Michael Barrett: 428 AB, 57 runs, 17 homers, 62 RBI, .292 average

Pretty much equal to last year. Good for a catcher.

Jacque Jones: 544 AB, 74 runs, 28 homers, 84 RBI, 10 SB, .281 average

Seems pretty much equivalent to 2006.

Matt Murton: 482 AB, 76 runs, 14 homers, 68 RBI, .300 average

Doesn't look like the editors expect a real breakout year. This is more of the same.

Carlos Zambrano (El Tortuga): 16-7, 220 innings, 205 Ks, 3.19 ERA

Good, but not breakout. I'd like to see him win 20.

Rich Hill: 12-9, 189 innings, 172 Ks, 3.81 ERA

They expect him to be a solid number three.

Mark Prior: 8-5, 131 innings, 134 Ks, 3.85 ERA

Optimistic

Ted Lilly: 12-10, 186 innings, 4.40 ERA

I can live with that, but not for the salary we're paying.

Jason Marquis: 11-13, 195 innings, 4.80 ERA

Certainly better than a year ago. Adequate for a fifth starter.

Kerry Wood: 2-2, 58 games, 62 innings, 75 Ks, 2.61 ERA

If this happens, he'd be a really solid middle-man. I'd be happy with these stats.

Ryan Dempster:  13 saves, 3.91 ERA.

Looks like they expect him to lose the closer's role eventually.

Bob Howry: 9 saves, 2.87 ERA

Looks like the editors expect him to perhaps take over as closer.

The one key Cub position player for whom this publication gives no stats projection is Cesar Izturis. All the editors say to potential fantasy drafters of Izturis is: "He's the Cubs' problem, not yours."

Not good.

I was thinking the other day about Lenny Dykstra. He was a guy who I honestly loathed when he played against the Cubs, as much as I admired his baseball abilities. One game in particular comes to mind. It was the late 1980s or early 1990s, and the Cubs were tied with the Mets late in the game. Dykstra was on third. On a grounder to third, he broke for home. The Cubs should have had him out by a mile, but for some reason, he threw his arm up into the air as the throw sailed toward home, and the ball hit his arm and bounced away. Dykstra scored, and the Cubs lost. I couldn't figure out at the time why he wasn't called out for interference - maybe the umps missed the play. Anyway, I remember being furious at him, especially because he could get away with such mischief.

There were other opposition players I loved to hate over the years. Pete Rose comes to mind. Such a cocky guy. I remember baiting him from the bleachers when he played the outfield in a few games back when he was on the Expos in 1984.

Then there was (is) Barry Bonds. One time, either in his late days with the Pirates or early days with the Giants, I sat in the bleachers with all the other fans giving Barry hell most of the game. He ignored all of our "Barrry, Barrry" chants and other insults for almost the entire game, but after about 7 innings he'd obviously had enough. As we ragged him, he put his non-gloved hand behind his back and gave everyone in the bleachers the middle finger. Of course we jeered him even louder after that.

I also remember opposition players I really liked - notably Roger McDowell, who used to take a hose and spray down the bleacher fans on hot days. He also used to play catch with bleacherites during batting practice.

Which players from the opposition do you all remember hating (or liking) over the years?

Channel 9 News just did a long segment on Kerry Wood, including extensive interviews with him filmed in Arizona over the last day or two. A lot of the footage showed Wood lifting weights. He looks great, and has lost a lot of weight.

He says (and I take this with a grain of salt, knowing his history), that he also feels great, better, in fact, than he did when he was actually pitching in the majors last year. He was playing catch off the mound the other day, and plans to throw off the mound in coming days. His surgically-repaired shoulder, he says, is giving him no problems.

Wood says he looks forward to working out of the bullpen next year. "As a starter," he said, "I'd be out there for 130 tough pitches, and the next day I wouldn't be able to move. I'm hoping I can do whatever they need me to do out of the pen, even if it's coming in in the 6th inning and getting three outs. I think I can bounce back better (than as a starter). I just want to go out and be part of the team and contribute."

Wood has a terrific attitude (for a modern ballplayer). He comes off as completely unselfish, telling WGN he feels bad that the organization has invested so much in him and gotten so little the last few years. He says he feels like he owes the Cubs a lot (which of course he does). He says the organization means a lot to him, and that a few years ago when some people told him he should go to a team like the Yankees so he'd have a chance to play in the World Series, he didn't want to. It wouldn't be the same, he said, to go to New York and win a pennant. He wants to do it here in Chicago.

Anyone who fondly remembers Harry Caray should click on the site below and check out some of the sound clips. It sure brings back some good memories for me.

Best of all is the "collection of play-by-play clips," which includes Harry's home run calls from two games I was lucky enough to be at: The June 23, 1984 "Sandberg game" (the highlight here is Sandberg's second game-tying homer off Bruce Sutter in as many at-bats, and you can hear Lou Boudreau in the background with Harry); and a 1989 game-winning homer by Mark Grace.

Also in the "collection of play-by-plays" is Harry's call in the late 1984 game in which a Pete Rose grounder up the middle that looked like a sure hit was deflected by Lee Smith to shortstop Dave Owen, setting up an improbable game-ending double play.

I hope the link works:

http://www.powermaxconsulting.com/HarrySounds.htm

Now that baseball-reference.com is providing historic pitch data game-by-game back to 1988, I was able to do a little research today on the number of pitches that two future Hall-of-Famers, Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens, threw that year, long before the current era when pitchers are kept on strict limits. I found that both of these young pitchers (Maddux was 22 at the time, Clemens was 25), were allowed to throw far more pitches than any pitcher, let alone a young pitcher, would be allowed to throw today, and on numerous occasions.

Here are my findings:

Maddux's highest pitch total that year occurred on May 17, when he threw 167 pitches in a 10.2 inning appearance.

Other high outings for Maddux that year included 143 pitches (his first start of the season), 137 pitches, 134 pitches (a 10-inning outing), and two 131-pitch starts. He averaged just 104 pitches per start that year for the 33 starts I have records of (there's no pitch count available for his May 22 start). Nevertheless, those high-pitch outings would raise quite a few eyes if they occurred today.

Clemens threw even more pitches. His highest total for the year was a 162-pitch start on July 25. He also had starts of 135, 152, 133, 132, 145, 150 (10 innings), 134, 141, 148, 138, 133 and 154. He averaged 120 pitches for the season.

Why bring these old statistics to light? Only to counter the widely-held theory that allowing young pitchers to throw more than 130 pitches in a game endangers their career in all cases. Certainly these high-pitch games didn't prevent Maddux and Clemens from each going on to win 300 games. Arguably, the high pitch counts early in 1988 affected Maddux's young arm in the second half of the season, when he wasn't all that effective. But there were no lingering effects in 1989, when he went 19-12, and obviously none thereafter. Clemens had a few years of struggles in the mid-1990's, which some might argue stemmed from throwing so many pitches early in his career. But he bounced back pretty well, I'd argue (4 Cy Young awards between 1997 and 2004).

Some would argue that Maddux and Clemens aren't good examples. They're freaks, people will say, and you can't subject any old pitcher to these kind of pitch counts and expect them to go on to win 300 games. However, I'd counter that Clemens and Maddux were far from freaks in those early years. This was the way all pitchers were treated at the time. True, some pitchers back then developed arm problems and faded. But that happens all the time today, when pitch counts are so closely watched.

And many other pitchers whose careers began between the mid-1960s and the mid-1980s and who threw similar numbers of pitches (though that data mostly isn't available), had HOF or near-HOF careers. Carlton, Ryan, Blyleven, Sutton, Jenkins, Perry, Seaver, Hershiser, Eckersley, Jack Morris, Luis Tiant, and many others come to mind. Clemens and Maddux happened to debut at the tail-end of this era, when so many HOF starters began their careers.

The high number of pitches thrown by both Maddux and Clemens in 1988 also contradicts the theory that the average game today sees more pitches thrown than in decades past due to the emphasis these days on strikeouts and also due to the advantages now enjoyed by hitters (body armor, better bats, smaller ballparks.) Obviously, just as many pitches were thrown in games in 1988 as are thrown in most games today. It's just that the starters aren't throwing as many of them.

I wasn't able to research Clemens' or Maddux's pitch counts prior to 1988, because that was the first year the stat was kept. But I'd assume 1988 was no fluke for Clemens, who had 18 complete games in 36 starts and threw more than 280 innings in 1987.

With all the holes in the current Cub rotation, I thought it might be fun to put together a "dream" starting five, consisting of the five best seasons by individual Cubs' starting pitchers since 1971 (kind of random, but it was the year I was born, so it seems like a good place to begin. I didn't want to go too far back).

Here's what I came up with, in order of greatness:

1971 Fergie Jenkins (24-13, 30 CGs, 2.77 ERA, 263 K's, 37 walks allowed in 325 innings, Cy Young winner)

1984 Rick Sutcliffe (16-1, 7 CGs, 3 shutouts in 20 starts, 2.69 ERA, pitched 2-hitter to clinch division, Cy Young winner)

1992 Greg Maddux: (20-11, 268 innings, 9 CGs, 4 shutouts, 199 K's, 2.18 ERA, Cy Young winner)

2003 Mark Prior (18-6, 2.43 ERA, 245 K's)

1977 Rick Reuschel (20-10, 8 CGs, 4 shutouts,  2.79 ERA)

What do you all think? Not a bad starting five, if I may say so myself. Still, I'm curious if there are other pitchers people might lobby for to be on this list. Maybe I've missed someone (perhaps Jon Lieber's 20-win season was better than Reuschel's, some might say). Or maybe some people would say Maddux had a better year in 1988 or 1989 than he did in 1992 (which is definitely an argument with teeth, considering that Maddux was 15-3 at the All-Star break in 1988). I welcome anyone with an opinion to weigh in.

Anyone want to think of some worst-case scenario opening-day 2007 rosters for the Cubs? After watching yesterday's game, I'd have to say if Mateo is anywhere near next year's starting rotation, 2007 is going to be a long year.

In addition:

If Dempster is still the closer, not a good scenario.

If Cedeno is in the lineup - bad scenario.

If Baker is managing - bad scenario.

If the outfield remains Pierre, Murton and Jones - bad scenario. I like all three of these players for various reasons, but they can't all be together in one outfield. Not enough power, weak arms.

If Marshall is in the rotation: bad sign. I don't think he has the talent to be counted on as one of the starting five. His presence there would indicate the Cubs didn't go out and aggressively seek starting pitching over the winter.

If the Cubs have both Wood and Prior on the roster next year, that's a bad sign. I suppose keeping one of them and hoping he can recover from the last three years of woes is OK. I'm willing to take that chance. But not both of them.

Anyone else with thoughts?

Bad news today for Twins fans (and good news for White Sox fans), as 22-year-old pitcher Francisco Liriano found out he'd need Tommy John surgery and will miss the rest of this season and possibly next season as well. Here's what CNNSI.com had to say about Liriano:

"It's a devastating injury, not just to the Twins but to baseball. Liriano had everything done right -- he was watched closely, he started in relief, he had his counts and innings monitored, and when he hurt himself, they took things very conservatively. While he awaits the results of an MRI taken quickly after the injury, it looks as if Liriano is headed for Tommy John surgery. If so, he'll miss the bulk of the 2007 season."

Which of course, raises a question in my mind. Namely, if the Twins had done everything right, how did this young player, with just 20 major league starts, suffer such a devastating injury? I looked at his pitch counts, and indeed, the Twins treated Liriano very carefully. In only 5 of his 20 starts had he gone over 100 pitches, with 111 being his top outing. No Dusty Baker to blame here for leaving him out on the mound too long.

The point I'm trying to make is that injuries to pitchers happen, whether their pitch counts are carefully monitored or whether a more aggressive manager asks them to stay in games longer (a la Baker in 2003). This injury to Liriano serves as further proof that counting pitches can't prevent a pitcher from needing surgery.