How likely is it that the 3 meaningful games in 12 days scenario will actually play out?  By my calculation (and assuming each team has a 50% chance of winning each game), it's only a 37.5% chance (and maybe less than that).

If the Eagles lose tonight (50% chance), it won't happen because they'll be locked into the #3 seed and will be able to rest players next Sunday against Dallas.  If they win tonight and win on Sunday (25% chance of the two happening together), there's a 50% chance it won't happen because they'll get a bye (by virtue of being the #1 or #2 seed) if Chicago loses to Green Bay.  Based on coin flip probabiliites, the chances that the Eagles win twice and Chicago loses next Sunday is 12.5%.

The worst case scenario plays out, then, only if the Eagles win tonight and lose next Sunday (25% chance) or if they win tonight and win next Sunday AND Chicago wins next Sunday (12.5%).  And it may not even happen then.  If the latter scenario plays out (two Eagles wins and a Chicago win), the Eagles may still get a first round bye with an Atlanta loss and lot of help (though this scenario seems quite remote).

Let's see how things play out here before assuming the Eagles have been burned by the schedule-makers.  If the Eagles don't take care of business tonight, none of this will have mattered.

I've never been one to be overly concerned about the mix of pass plays and running plays in the Eagles' offense, but the current reliance on the big play worries me a lot.  Did anyone notice that the Eagles have had fewer first downs and less time of possession than their opponent in each of their last four games?  These 4 games included games against 3 of the worst teams in the league!  It seems like big plays are the only thing keeping this team going (along with a good plus/minus on interceptions, obviously).  I know that there is more risk than reward in running Westbrook too much at this point in the season, but I'm very concerned about the Eagles's possession offense especially in terms of the opportunity it gives opposing teams.  You notice that the only decent offense that the birds have played against this season (the Saints) laid a real whupping on them.  What's to be done?

On a somewhat related subject, what do people make of Moats's 126 yard, 3 touchdown performance at Buffalo last weekend?  I saw that he did it on 23 carries, none longer than 17 yards.  Just from reading the stat sheet, it seems like a real workman-like performance.  Who would have thunk it?

Despite all the talk about the unsettledness of the Eagles QB situation, I'm seeing a very clear plan developing here with a variety of alternatives for next year depending on how things work out.

McNabb is obviously the number one quarterback this year.  Unless he suffers a career threatening injury or the team experiences a very poor season, McNabb will be the number one quarterback next year.  If one of those events occurs, however, he very well could be gone (regardless of whose at fault in, say, a 6-10 season).  It seems like he is destined to sink or swim with the team's record this year even more than Andy.

Kolb is the number two quarterback this year.  If McNabb returns as the number one quarterback next year, Kolb will return as the number two quarterback unless he performs very poorly during the opportunities he has during the season.  Given his performances against New Orleans and Kansas City, I'm thinking he's back and getting ready to be the number one guy in 2011 (or sooner in the event of injury).  If McNabb does suffer a career threatening injury later this year or if the team finds itself out of the playoff hunt with two or more weeks to go (in which case McNabb would likely be gone), Kolb will get a multi-game audition for the number one job at the end of the season (perhaps along with Vick).  If Kolb performs well during this audition, he returns as the number one quarterback next year unless Vick gets the chance and plays like a pro-bowler.  In the latter case, Kolb will return as the number two (again, absent very poor performance on behalf of Kolb).

That leaves Vick.  Vick is a special weapon this year, first and foremost, and a third quarterback as well.  If things fall apart for McNabb this year (injury or disasterous team performance), Vick may get a chance to audition for the number one job next year (along with Kolb) as described above.  Otherwise, this is a one year assignment for Vick, a chance to get re-acclimated to the NFL, and a chance to show other teams what he can do.  On the latter point, if the Eagles end up having a big season this year (blowing teams out, and locking up the playoffs with weeks to spare), I wouldn't be surprised to see Andy give more and more opportunities to Vick to showcase his talents (a 12 to 14 win season almost guarantees that the QB responsible for those 12 to 14 wins (probably McNabb but perhaps Kolb) will be back as the number one next year and I very seriously doubt that Vick will return as a number two (or that the Eagles will keep him as a number two)).  Although it seems possible that Vick will return as a special weapon again next year (if, for example, the Eagles win it all with Vick playing a key role out of the wildcat formation or with Vick starring in another non-QB position), it seems quite unlikely to me.

And Garcia?  I can't believe that anyone thinks he's a factor in this discussion.  I'm actually a little surprised that they brought him back (especially since it cost them a real contributor in Baskett).  But here's my question - is it possible that the Eagles might be able to arrange to trade Garcia (perhaps to Miami) for anything of value or is he likely to be cut loose in the next week or two?

Let me know what you think - either about my logic or my question.

Does anyone else share the opinion that the accolades thrown at Brett Favre are somewhat overdone?  Fabulous during the first half of his career but only good (or good plus) since.  He flat out lost too many games for the Packers (and Jets for that matter) during the latter part of his career to be in anyone's top ten list.  My memory is not perfect, but didn't it seem like the Eagles were pretty much assured a victory anytime that they took on Favre and his gunslinger attitude during the Andy Reid era?

It seems to me that the Eagles have had pretty good luck against the eventual superbowl champions.  They beat the Steelers in week three this year, they beat the Bucs the year the Bucs won it all, and I remember them being competitive with the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins during the Buddy era.  Are there any stats out there as to each team's record versus the eventual superbowl champions?  Where do you think the Eagles rank?

I am a transplanted Eagles fan living in the Bay Area.  I have two tickets to Sunday's game against the Forty-Niners at Candlestick that I'm not going to be able to use but would love to sell to another Eagles fan.  My sense is that the seats are decent (quite high up but on the 20 or 30 yard line).  They cost me $99 apiece and I am happy to entertain any reasonable offer to keep them in the family.  Please send an e-mail to dave.olson17@comcast.net and we can get things going.