SB Nation User Blog: daveh33

daveh's top 111 prospects for 2010

daveh33 — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 20:32:22 -0000

Been working on this list for about a month now, tweaking/reading up on these guys. I was going to wait til the AFL was over to finalize it, but I think not much will change between now and then. I mostly just wanted to get reports on Strasberg, Scheppers, and Castro. the way K Law talks about Castro, it sounds like he might put him top 20. while i am not going that high on him, I am pretty impressed by what's been said about him.

I used 130 PAs instead of ABs as the cutoff.... by accident at first, then by choice [it just seems weird to me that a couple walks determine it] ... so thats why Gamel and Escobar aren't here... I don't feel strongly for or against their statuses, so i guess if i were to list them, they'd be about where other people would have them.

I approach my lists as though I am a GM drafting for my team. 'Take the best player available' approach. Until proven, they are all prospects, so I do tend to value upside more-so than others. Parker and Scheppers would both be top 20 if not for their injury concerns.

1. Jason Heyward - OF ATL
2. Stephen Strasburg - P WAS
3. Buster Posey - C SF
4. Michael Stanton - OF FLA
5. Jesus Montero - C NYY
6. Carlos Santana - C CLE
7. Domonic Brown - OF PHI
8. Desmond Jennings - OF TB
9. Brian Matusz - P BAL
10. Neftali Feliz - P TEX
11. Martin Perez - P TEX
12. Logan Morrison - 1B FLA
13. Pedro Alvarez - 3B PIT
14. Justin Smoak - 1B TEX
15. Christian Friedrich - P COL
16. Dustin Ackley - OF SEA
17. Kyle Drabek - P PHI
18. Fernando Martinez - OF NYM
19. Matthew Moore - P TB
20. Jordan Lyles - P HOU
21. Michael Taylor - OF PHI
22. Jenrry Mejia - P NYM
23. Lonnie Chisenhall - 3B CLE
24. Wade Davis - P TB
25. Jeremy Hellickson - P TB
26. Brett Wallace - 3B OAK
27. Freddie Freeman - 1B ATL
28. Derek Norris - C WAS
29. Jaff Decker - OF SD
30. Hector Rondon - P CLE
31. Madison Bumgarner - P SF
32. Chris Carter - 1B OAK
33. Starlin Castro - SS CHC
34. Aaron Crow - P KC
35. Julio Teheran - P ATL
36. Casey Kelly - P BOS
37. Yonder Alonso - 1B CIN
38. Michael Moustakas - 3B KC
39. Tim Beckham - SS TB
40. Ryan Westmoreland - OF BOS
41. Ike Davis - 1B NYM
42. Grant Desme - OF OAK
43. Reid Brignac - SS TB
44. Tyler Matzek - P COL
45. Todd Frazier - 2B CIN
46. Aaron Hicks - OF MIN
47. Chris Withrow - P LAD
48. Nick Weglarz - OF CLE
49. Michael Montgomery - P KC
50. Tyler Flowers - C CHW

51. Josh Bell - 3B BAL
52. Michael Saunders - OF SEA
53. Jhoulys Chacin - P COL
54. Casey Crosby - P DET
55. Thomas Neal - 1B SF
56. Dan Hudson - P CHW
57. Tanner Scheppers - P TEX
58. Simon Castro - P SD
59. Brett Lawrie - 2B MIL
60. Jacob Turner - P DET
61. Shelby Miller - P STL
62. Jason Knapp - P CLE
63. Jake Arrieta - P BAL
64. Josh Reddick - OF BOS
65. Austin Jackson - OF NYY
66. Zach Wheeler - P SF
67. Danny Duffy - P KC
68. Danny Espinosa - SS WAS
69. Devaris Gordon - SS LAD
70. Jarrod Parker - P ARI
71. Wil Myers - C KC
72. Ben Revere - OF MIN
73. Josh Vitters - 3B CHC
74. Tim Melville - P KC
75. Alex Avila - C DET
76. Zach Britton - P BAL
77. Manny Banuelos - P NYY
78. Jay Jackson - P CHC
79. Grant Green - SS OAK
80. Ethan Martin - P LAD
81. Scott Sizemore - 2B DET
82. Zach Stewart - P TOR
83. Carlos Carrasco - P CLE
84. Brad Lincoln - P PIT
85. Christian Bethancourt - C ATL
86. Hak-Ju Lee - SS CHC
87. Cody Scarpetta - P MIL
88. Jiovanni Mier - SS HOU
89. Alex White - P CLE
90. James Darnell - 3B SD
91. Alex Liddi - 3B SEA
92. Eric Hosmer - 1B KC
93. Hank Conger - C LAA
94. Tony Sanchez - C PIT
95. Randall Delgado - P ATL
96. Anthony Capra - P OAK
97. Mike Trout - OF LAA
98. Alex Colome - P TB
99. Wilmer Flores - SS NYM
100. Jared Mitchell - OF CHW

101. Wilson Ramos - C MIN
102. Brett Jackson - OF CHC
103. Chase D'Arnaud - 2B PIT

104. Arodys Vizcaino - P NYY

105. Donovan Tate - OF SD

106. Bobby Borchering - 3B ARI

107. Brandon Erbe - P BAL

108. Ian Desmond - SS WAS

109. Wilmer Font - P TEX

110. Stolmy Pimentel - P BOS

111. Miguel Sano - SS MIN

the 'rest':

Jemile Weeks - 2B OAK
Kyle Gibson - P MIN
Tyson Gillies - OF SEA Andrew Cashner - P CHC
Travis Wood - P CIN
Bradley Holt - P NYM
Jose Tabata - OF PIT
Rex Brothers - P COL Logan Forsythe - 3B SD
Adrian Cardenas - 2B OAK
Kyle Allen - P NYM
Nick Barnese - P TB
Kyle Lobstein - P TB
Juan Francisco - 3B CIN
Travis D'Arnaud - C PHI
Josh Thole - C NYM
Jason Castro - C HOU
Phillipe Aumont - P SEA
Ryan Kalish - OF BOS
Austin Romine - C NYY
Matt Dominguez - 3B FLA
Zach McAllister - P NYY
David Bromberg - P MIN

09 draftees in 111: 18
09 draftees in HM: 2

2nd tier Catcher smackdown

daveh33 — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 18:22:23 -0000

I did enjoy the smackdowns... but I think it'd be cool to include more than just a couple names.

My "top" tier is Posey, Montero, Santana, Norris, and Flowers. So I'm including the next 10 names at the C spot. Fact-based discussion strongly encouraged.

My 2010 Top 100 list is almost done, but I have to admit that catcher is the hardest to gauge, so I look forward to seeing the results/discussions out of this one.

I think the next tier looks something like this:

Jason Castro - HOU

Hank Conger - LAA

Josh Thole - NYM

Wil Myers - KC

Austin Romine - NYY

Christian Bethancourt - ATL

Tony Sanchez - PIT

Alex Avila - DET

Wilson Ramos - MIN

Travis D'Arnaud - PHI

5 of these are currently in the 70-100 of my list... 2 others were on there but I have since knocked them out. Ramos seems over-rated to me.

I thought about including a poll, but I'd rather just see everyone post their own rankings. I'll post mine later

the daveh top 40 8/9/09

daveh33 — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 18:26:30 -0000

I approach my lists as if I'm an MLB GM at a draft. I do of course take advanced leagues and ARL into account, but I lean heavily towards a "take the best player available" approach... So I often have younger/high upside players ranked higher than most. This is just something to keep in mind when you see an 18-year-old pitcher in low-A ranked above a 23-year-old slugger in AA.
One other thing I tend to favor is body-type. yes, there are always exceptions [the Lincecums, Oswalts, Pedroias], but it is not the norm, so I often tend to favor the taller/bigger/projectable types.

None of the players on my list are in MLB as of 8/6/09 when I started double-checking rosters. So don't cry foul when you don't see Feliz, Matusz, and Tillman top 10, because they would have been.

1. Jason Heyward - OF [ATL]

justin upton 2.0 .... i see no imperfections. its frightening. i'm in lust

2. Buster Posey - C [SF]

as sure a bet to be a very productive hitter behind the plate as yr gonna find

3. Michael Stanton - OF [FLA]

upside power upside power. not quite as fireproof as Ja Hey tho.

4. Jesus Montero - DH/C [NYY]

dat bat

5. Carlos Santana - C [CLE]

this bat, behind the plate, is pure CASH

6. Dominic Brown - OF [PHI]

he keeps improving... having no trouble adjusting to AA, and very projectable body. reminds me of fowler but with power

7. Justin Smoak - 1B [TEX]

already looks like a professional hitter. no doubt his bat will play well at the next level.

8. Matt LaPorta - OF/1B [CLE]

he will hit. not sure why he's been dropping down lists... i almost put him ahead of smoak. reverse SNTS

9. Logan Morrison - 1B [FLA]

i am big on guys with plate discipline like this. as good a bet as any to average ~.380 OBP right away

10. Christian Friedrich - P [COL]

i wasn't expecting to like him this much. he rocketed up my board the more i read/watched from him. nice frame too

11. Desmond Jennings - OF [TB]

have to fly, have to fight, have to crow. gonna be the rufio to BOSSMAN's pan.

12. Kyle Drabek - P [PHI]

admittedly raised his stock the most at the futures game. i really liked what i saw

13. Wade Davis - P [TB]

seems like he's been around forever. great pitcher's body, would've ranked a bit higher with better numbers

14. Matthew Moore - P [TB]

he's not being rushed... i'm pretty confident he could handle the fsl right now. he'll just have to dominate it next year

15. Martin Perez - P [TEX]

if this kid had a bigger frame he'd be about 5 spots higher. as it stands, he's an 18-yo lefty who strikes out 10/per9 in low-a

16. Jenrry Mejia - P [NYM]

i'm intrigued. show me more

17. Pedro Alvarez - 3B? [PIT]

admittedly didn't like his hacking at the futures game... but its one game, so i'll have to trust the numbers and scouts

18. Tim Beckham - SS [TB]

hitting doubles with regularity. needs work, but all the talent and the power potential is still there

19. Michael Taylor - OF [PHI]

big ol boy. but i'm quite sure dom brown was the reason the phils don't have halladay right now.

20. Jordan Lyles - P [HOU]

love love him. astros' brass did something very right

21. Lonnie Chisenhall - 3B/SS [CLE]

love the bat. a 20-yo slugging .490 and owning a .204 ISO in the carolina league ain't no joke

22. Hector Rondon - P [CLE]

he's 21, strikes out one/per in aa with a 2.51 fip, moves up to aaa now and hasn't lost a beat. very under-rated

23. Julio Teheran - P [ATL]

is this ranking too agressive? I won't be surprised if he's top 20 on ba's list in 2010

24. Derek Norris - C [WAS]

huge ISOP in the sally-league for a catcher. huge. alvarez-huge. second to stanton-huge. and he has plate-discipline

25. Madison Bumgarner - P [SF]

jonathan mayo probably disagrees with this. lol. i need more from 'da bum' before i can justify ranking him higher

26. Yonder Alonso - 1B [CIN]

i haven't seen much but again i can't ignore the scouts. he will probably hit in cincy tho. anyone can

27. Jarrod Parker - P [ARZ]

would probably be 15 spots higher if not for a man named andrews being in his life right now. or andrews' associate, whatever, i don't feel good about it

28. Jaff Decker - OF [SD]

great name, great bat.

29. Chris Carter - 1B [OAK]

dat ass.

30. Nick Weglarz - OF [CLE]

he's got power and plate-discipline. and he's probably been a bit unlucky this year with a .258 babip. i was checking out his body [no homo] at the futures game... looks more athletic than people have been giving him credit for

31. Freddie Freeman - 1B [ATL]

gonna mash with his bro Ja Hey someday. someday soon.

32. Brett Wallace - 3B [OAK]

lost a bit of luster after all the hype last year.

33. Jason Knapp - P [CLE]

i just realized how ridiculous the tribe is gonna be in 2011

34. Casey Kelly - P?/SS? [BOS]

not sure where he's gonna play or how i feel about how he's being handled. but he is talented, very much so

35. Reid Brignac - SS [TB]

not sure if people forgot about him or just don't like cajuns, but i'll take him over escobar seven days of the week. still hitting doubles, and he's still lanky and young for his league

36. Eric Hosmer - 1B [KC]

waiting... to see something

37. Brad Holt - P [NYM]

i hear he's good. but aj burnett? :-)

38. Thomas Neal - 1B [SF]

big bat... can he dh in san fran? also, waiting to see how he does outside the cal league.

39. Ryan Westmoreland - OF [BOS]

this was vitters' spot. but jeff francouer 2.0 is not as inviting as what this kid brings to the table.

40. Jeremy Hellickson - P [TB]

actually would take hellboy over vitters as well. seems to get lost in the tb shuffle. under-rated because of his size

Just Missed:

Cashner

Vitters

Escobar

Castro

A-Jax

Sickels' impressions on AL East/our draft

daveh33 — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 17:53:11 -0000

here

Tampa Bay: I have a huge amount of respect for how the Rays have built up their organization, but I have some questions about the top of this draft. First rounder LeVon Washington is a speed demon, but I have doubts about his bat and his weak arm limits him to second base. I think there were better options in the first round. Second round SS Ken Diekroger is extremely toolsy, but again there are doubts that he's going to hit, and this also looks like an overdraft to me. Frankly, third round pick Todd Glaesmann and fourth round pick Luke Bailey both look like better prospects to me than Washington and Diekroger. They fell to due to signability and health, respectively. If the Rays can sign them, they could both end up being better than Washington and Diekroger. Is this a clever stratagem on the Rays part? We'll see. Fifth round pick Jeff Malm has a terrific bat but poses a signability risk due to his Southern Cal commitment. Sixth round pick Devin Fuller, RHP out of Chandler Gilbert CC, throws hard but needs better secondary stuff; his upside is certainly impressive. Sleepers include Brett Nommensen (OF, Eastern Illinois, 8th round), Derek Dennis (SS, Michigan HS, 9th round), and Alex Koronis (RHP, Tampa, 11th round). If Glaesmann and Bailey are signable, this is a strong class, but I really wonder about Washington and Diekroger, and would personally have gone with other choices there. Of course, the Rays have a better farm system than I do.

I tend to agree with him a bit on being disappointed with the first 2 picks. There was still premo talent available, and with less question marks [Tim Wheeler]. Although we'll see what Friedman pulls out of his hat. will it be a rabbit?

How many 21 year olds ever OPS'd 1.000 over a season in mlb?

daveh33 — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 20:31:55 -0000

I don't know of a site that lists them. just from looking up several possibilities on baseball-reference stats... I see that A rod and Ted Williams both did it in their age 20 seasons [Ted did it again in his age 21 season]. Pujols did it at age 21. Are they it?

Not saying Justin is a lock to keep up this hitting, as I'm sure he's gonna hit another rough patch before the season ends... but its fun to speculate. he and Mauer have been keeping me real excited in May. I don't know about Mauer hitting .400... but I think Justin has a legit shot at OPSing 1.000 this season.

whoa. Ask Friedman who he wants play him for when his movie deal gets the green light

daveh33 — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 06:44:17 -0000

whoa. Ask Friedman who he wants play him for when his movie deal gets the green light

whoa. brad pitt to play billy beane?

daveh33 — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 06:34:22 -0000

whoa now.

found this on imdb:

via i25.photobucket.com

Has there ever been a movie where a baseball GM was the protagonist? [Especially starring someone of Pitt's celebrity] I can't think of one, though my baseball movie history isn't the best. And this makes me wonder when "A Ray of Light: The Andrew Friedman Story" starring Clive Owen will get picked up. ?? I'd work for free to make that a reality.

Brad Nelson: possible option for RH power?

daveh33 — Fri, 28 Nov 2008 20:36:37 -0000

Brad Nelson: possible option for RH power?

I still like this guy, and didn't realize his stats were back up... He is wasting away in the Brewers' org.... and I find this an intriguing cheap option.

I love too much

daveh33 — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 04:09:46 -0000

that's why I can't take it. Game 5 is devastating... I won't be able to forget it... I don't know why Wheeler was left in... I just don't. I can see one big mistake happening. I can see Balfour throwing 97 mph to ortiz and he just hits it good... but why 4 more runs? Where is David Price? Where is David Price? Where is David Price? Did he ask to not play? Did he casually tell Maddon that he was nervous one day at lunch? Does Maddon see fear in the boy's face? What did Maddon see in Wheeler's face on Thursday night? Just how many games does BOSSMAN have to hit a home run in the 1st inning? Why wasn't Kaz throwing sliders, again?

Game 6, and I never saw it... didn't even get to see BOSSMAN's home run thanks to TBS... Why call for hit and run with our slowest runner on 1st, and our 9th hitter at the plate? I'll give them varitek since we got Bartlett.... didn't we used to be able to manufacture runs? SO we must do it again, against Lester? WHy? Why was Wheeler left in? If Thursday morning, Maddon was told that we would lose a Game 6 by the Angel Gabriel, would he have taken Wheeler out before Drew steps to the plate?

Are the Red Sox just that good? If they are that good, why did they let us destroy them on their home turf 2 days in a row? So are they really that good? Why does JD Drew hit good now?

It feels like being in love with someone, and them not loving you back. except for BOSSMAN and Kaz, who can crash at my place any time... and Price, since I don't even know him yet. my friends all say he's the coolest, but whenever I invite him to a sweet party, he's got other plans... and yet I still want to be buds with him. I still feel like I'm the one missing out.

I have never followed any team as closely as this one. This has been years coming... since 02 I guess. The Pirates selected Bryan Bullington and the Rays took this BOSSMAN Upton guy.

Games 3 & 4 feel like months ago, or even some other season. Why all those runs, and then the Red Sox have won by 2, 1, and 2. ?

ef

daveh33 — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 07:28:25 -0000

ef

i still think we will win but this game just pisses me off so much i don’t even want to watch game 6… fuck ‘big game james’… we had big game Kaz pitching shit hot in boston, BOSSMAN silencing the crowd in the 1st inning and Carlos cementing it with a BOMB off of their best pitcher so far… and then BOSSMAn cementing it AGAIN with a huge double…. i really really strongly disliked those last 3 innings… it was the inevitable happening and Maddon just sat there and pulled down his pants and bent over. fuck that so hard