The Ray’s bullpen has been discussed at great lengths on this site and on (cringe) local talk radio lately, with many fans expressing concerns about the high leverage relievers in our bullpen. 

This is no doubt a reaction to the string of late inning losses over the last few weeks, and that is understandable.  Most people watch sports and have a very visceral reaction to a pitcher standing on the mound while the other team hopes around on home plate.  This ability to invoke deep positive and negative sentiment in a fan base is what makes sports enjoyable and frankly, profitable. 

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Last night, I spent a lot of time looking at the baseball reference splits page, and became a little obsessed.  It’s a great site, with the downside being that there is no tRA or FIP data on this stie.

Some info I found interesting, in a numbers can tell a narrative way, are the: home/away; leverage, bases occupied, and times facing opponent splits. 

I took a look at the most obvious pitching split (vs RH/LH hitting) for our bullpen, just to have a Manager-like reference sheet for the rest of the season.    tOPS+ is just a measure of how that split matches up against his typical OPS.  The smaller the number the better for a pitcher.  100 is the benchmark.

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So many things are vs. each other these days.  I'm pretty sure it all started with Alien vs. Predator. But not long after that you have Freddy vs. Jasons, then your Britney vs. Kfeds, your Cat vs. Dogs, and most recently Monsters vs. Aliens.

As you know, draysbay has a favorite vs.: Edwin vs. Sonny (and more recently its ugly little siblings: Edwin vs. Neimann; Edwin vs. Price; Edwin vs Jesus.)

Something I have been thinking about a lot lately: Instead of speculating on what we should have done last year; lets use some wild cogitation and, if your willing to add any, a few numbers, to decide what should we do in the next two years.

By my reckoning Matt Garza and BJ Upton are the two players most urgent and important to extend. My apologies to Howell, Bartlett, and Zobrist. (Deductive reasoning have me bidding a tearful farewell to Pena and CC by 2011.)
With both Garza and Upton coming up on arbitration years in 2010, can we work out an extension for both before they get to pricey? I hope so, but If not, who is more important to this team, and who do we make a priority?

WARP vs. Salary expectations:
Using years past and a bit of guesswork, Garza averages out being worth between 2.2 and 2.5 wins a season goinf forward.  Upton is closer to 3.8 - 4 wins above replacement (and almost 6 above Mets new savior,Jeff Francoeur). Can you imagine if he wasn't so freaking lazy?

When you remove salary considerations, the player you want to keep right now is Upton. But since we are not the Yanks, Sox, or Angels, and signing the best players despite salary is not an option, it would be helpful to know what there respective agents might be requesting on a per annum basis.  Very limited research on my part has come up fruitless, so if anyone has any numbers regarding negotiations throw them in here and lets start the discussion.

WARP vs. our actual replacements:
Upton Replacements: Jennings, F Perez, Ruggiano maybe Joyce with meh feilding. How many wins above replacement can one of these player give us in CF? I don't know enough about baseball to speculate, but my hopes are for Jennings to continue developing power and patience and be a possible 2 WAR guy (if not to replace Upton then to replace Crawford.)

Garza Replacements: Favorites Davis, Hellickson, Neimann, Sonnenstein (long shot McGee). If Davis takes Neimann's spot next year after hitting the bullpen in September call ups this year, then its up to Neimann and Sonny to take over here.

I feel a lot better with Garza every 5 days that one of these guys, but I start feeling better if we are slotting them at 4 or 5 iwhen Price starts bring a third pitch and moves up.

Trade/Supplemental Pick Value:
What will each be able to get in their last arb year via trade? How many sandwich picks are they worth if we are having a good year and we want to hold on to them through the playoff?

If your argumentative juices are flowing and you don't want to waist them on Jackson, i'ld love to discuss....

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Before Price.  Before Shields, Sonny or Garza.  Before there was any sliver of hope; there was, at least, the idea of a top of the rotation starter in 2004, first rounder, Jeff Niemann.

Massive, national championship winning, first round draft pick, Jeff Niemann.  Way back in '04 and '05, the reports of the fastball, and especially the nasty slider, were plenty to make me think of a better rotation with him as the Ace, or maybe #2 behind Kazmir.

When I first starting checking in on Drays Bay, it was to get updates on Niemann.  Oft injured but still tantalizing, he was some hope where there was not much else to look forward to.

Then, something happened.  Pitching prospects started popping up all over the place, Jeff missed some games, and guys we never really saw coming, like Shields and Sonny became top notch MLB pitchers.  So he somewhat fades to black and today seems to be a potential trade piece or bullpen piece.  All  the while, he has become healthy and has really pitched lights of in the minors.  For most other teams, this guy would be their top pitching prospect.  For us (or some of us)  we can't wait to see what we can get in a trade for him, or if he would be a decent closer.

I'm here to say no, or maybe I'm hear to say wait.  I want to see what he can do in the rotation for a few months.  I know we are in a hurry to see Price, but lets see what we have in the  Big, Red,  Lumberjack looking mother  first.

Pitching is so valuable.  I would love to avoid a knee jerk trade of a guy who looks like a MLB ready pitcher, with some potential to be a 2 or 3, because we can't find the room in the rotation.  All the while we are in a frenzy to get up our 2007 first rounder.  

There was a time....at least to me.....when Niemann was Price.  Get excited for this guy; we will get to Price soon enough.

Typically I prefer reading the site to posting on it, but I wanted to take a look at a few things before the trade market winds down today.  

If the Boston 3 way deal goes through today, I am pretty sure our front office will be much maligned for doing nothing to improve the team, while Boston and New York seem to have upgraded their respective squads (though in NY's case I don't know how effective it will be.)  

I think it is wise to remember, though, that these kind of player come at a significant price.  If there is one thing the Rays front office has shown us since they have taken over, it is that they are able to correctly value talent at all levels.  They know what the price/value should be of these players on the trade market (Jason Bay, Nady, Tex, and Dunn), and I believe know more or less what they are willing to put on the credit card for them ( in terms of future valuable major leaguers). 

So, an offer is on the table from the Rays, which is positive.  The Boston deal could get in the way, which is life.  If we get Bay at the right price, we will all be very happy, but we should all hope Friedman and co. resist the temptation to up the offer/payment beyond what they have valued the incoming asset at.  This would be the worst case scenario even more so if it involves too much pitching.

We shouldn't be shocked if something came completely out of left field (or hopefully right field) if the Bay trade falls through, see the Wigginton deal form last year.  That is the perfect example of another team overpaying for a player (Ty) that a few other teams were interested in.

There are those who think we are wasting roster spots and that we have "to much pitching" waiting to come up before 2011.  They ask "Why not trade some pitching you can not have ten starters?"  If one looks at the odds (I have not), we are going to have injuries in our rotation over the next 2-3 years.  Players will be out for months (Kazmir early this year) while some will possibly be out for a year or two (countless numbers of pitchers with Tommy Johns).  We can not assume that all of our prized minor league prospects will turn out ot be stars or even front of the rotation pitchers. I would be happy if a few of them are.  I wouldn't want to trade a player from that few for a year and a half of any outfielder in the majors, and neither do the Rays.

If we look at our abundance of outfield prospects 2 years ago we are shown a perfect example of an area of strength becoming a serious deficiency.  That can not happen with our pitching strength, it is even more valuable. 

So in conclusion, staying level headed is imperative if we want to succeed long term, and the Rays know this.

Thoughts?