Burlington and Wilmington are at their All Star break so I am interested to hear what RR thinks about Royals minor league player of the year.  We haven't had a minor league report card for a while.

POY - Joe Dickerson - Wilmington (in a landslide).  He has a .911 OPS, .325 Avg., 41 RBI on only 5HRs.  Joe has stolen 23 bases also.  Both those stats and KC has an everyday prospect!  Wilmington is a pitcher friendly park so for me, that makes the numbers that much better.  Honorable Mention - Mike Aviles (the new darling of online fandom). 

Pitcher of the Year - I'll go with Edgar Cegarra and Carlos Rosa in a dead heat.  Both dominated their respective leagues and got promoted early.  Cegarra is only 19 years old so that is a huge plus.  Rosa being in KC was a surprise but used correctly, he can get some valuable experience until Bale and/or Nunez return.

What do you think? Predictions for the second half? ?

With the news of the Reds promoting several players, what do teams look for when they are promoting players so early in the season?  Is it dominating the league?  Age?  Other prospects pushing forward? 

For example, KC has Carlos Rosa at AA and he is really strong for the Texas League.  He has 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 6/38 BB/K ratio.  At 23, I would think he would be promoted.  Of course, last year Rowdy Hardy stayed at Wilmington all year at age 23.  Besides the fact that KC doesn't always seem to have a clue in the development area, what does an organization look for when promoting prospects to the next level? 

I enjoy following all aspects of the Royals organization from KC down to Arizona Rookie League.  Tracking the minor leaguers' progress is one of the fun parts of looking at the box score each day.  Like some of you other minor league enthusiasts, I do like to see how Clint Robinson or Mike Moustakas did last night.  I also want to know if Blake Wood had a good start in Wilmington or if Rowdy Hardy shut down the opponents.

I  have been shocked at how poorly KC's entire organization is hitting this season.  The KC problems are well documented but I am wondering if the problem is more deeply rooted than this.  Yes, I know it is early and panic should not set in yet.  Two hot weeks and averages can sky rocket.  It's baseball.  But the overwhelming stats for every level of KC's organization has struck me that something is not right.

Here are the team stats for each level.  I selected OPS, BA, BB/K ratio and runs scored as a starting point.

Burlington - Low A Midwest League

OPS.610  BA - .211  BB/K 55/146    Runs Scored 11th out of 14th

Individuals of note:  Top 30 prospects or high draft picks

Mike Moustakas  OPS - .475, BA - .204  BB/K 5/9

Jason Taylor OPS - .703, BA - .196 BB/K 10/14

Wilmington - High A Carolina League

OPS. .622  BA - .211  BB/K 71/140    Runs Scored 8th of 8

Individuals of Note - Top 30 prospects or high draft picks

Chad McConnell .429, .131, 8/7

Jeff Bianchi .390, .136  3/16

Derrick Robinson .564, .222, 6/17

NWA - Double A Texas League

OPS .564, BA .204 BB/K - 55/124   Runs scored 8th of 8

Individuals of Note: 

Marc Maddox .380, 145, 3/14

Mario Lisson .483, .169 1/18

Jose Duarte .504, .172 9/13

Brian McFall .637, .184 8/11

Omaha is actually doing pretty well .803, 270, 49/115 6th out of 16 Runs scored.  They have many AAAA players like who haven't been able to establish themselves as true prospects like Jason Smith, Shane Costa, Mitch Maier, Ryan Shealy, and Mike Aviles.

Individual of note:

Chris Lubanski .705, .233 5/21

There are some players like Clint Robinson, Adrian Ortiz, Joe Dickerson, Kurt Mertins who are having good starts.  Mike Aviles is putting up serious hitting numbers again at Omaha.  However, the overall health of KC's top hitting prospects is poor.  Can it be coincidence that so many Royals are struggling at the plate?  One or two slow starts - maybe - it is baseball.  So many at one time have me thinking that hitting is an organizational problem. 

I am probably overdoing it for so early in the season as many fans do.  But I look for the KC bullpen to be a strength of the team in 2008.  After listening to Soria and Nunez dominant these first two games, they continue to pitch like they did in 2007.  Nunez has shown the ability to dominant in short bursts of an inning or two.  Soria continues to show the poise and confidence of a veteran along with great control.  When he is in the game with the lead, I feel confident that KC will win.  It was been a long time since I have felt that way with the Royals bullpen.

Over the next few games, we'll get a chance to see the new pitchers like Mahay, Yabuta, and Ramirez.  If they can perform up to previous levels, I like what they can add.  Gobble is consistent and I do think that Peralta will be back with Olivo comes off suspension.  Both Gobble and Peralta are stable based on the past.

The depth of bullpen goes into the minors as well.  If/When Hochevar and Davies are ready for the rotation, both Bale and Tomko could go to the pen and be effective.  If injuries happen (which they will), add Musser, Braun, Salmon, Duckworth and Tsao to the short term help that is available.  Overall that is a group of 7 more relievers who could help the Royals in 2008. 

Am I just drunk on the league leading Royals success or does the bullpen look good?  Yes, I know after posting this the pen will get torched but right now, I see the bullpen as a strength. 

heckle, ride, complain about and generally bitch and bemoan for the 2008 season?  I'd like to have a name for this awe inspiring award but have yet to come up with one.  Without the Devil, Buddy, Nationwide, Scott Elarton and Jason LaRue, we'll have to choose a few new targets.

To me, the early favorite looks like Tomko.  

Any suggestions or thoughts?

It is that time of year when the roster moves will be made - players sent down, released, DFA or traded.  KC always seems to come up with a guy on opening day roster that hasn't been with the team for long.

What are the predictions for player moves in the last week?  

Here are a few of mine:

1.  Leo Nunez sticks with the team as the last reliever in the pen.  Musser, Lawrence, Maroth, Davies, Hochevar, and Tsao go to Omaha.  
   
2.  Nomo is given release.
   
3.  Huber will not make the final roster.  
   
4.  Dark horse for the opening day roster is Matt Tupman since Olivo will be suspended.  
   
5.  Ryan Shealy begins season at Omaha since he has options.
   
6.  The Rose is traded to a team in need of starters like Washington or Florida.  Not much in return comes back to KC - a minor leaguer at best.  

I am intrigued by Hideo Nomo's pitching today.  Does he have anything left in the tank?  What would KC do with him if he has a descent ST?  When he was first signed, I knew it was more for Yabuta than anything else.  However, if he is able to get batters out, what do they do with him?  

I am also curious about how staff decisions will be made.  
Who are the pitchers that are safe regardless of how they perform on the field?

Who will have to earn a spot?

Who will get cut (send down, DFAed, or waived) regardless of what they do?  

Who is potential trade bait?

How great is it to read stories about what is happening on the field than off?  Bob Dutton's article on Joel Peralta was good.

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/royals/story/505439.html

I am thinking about these things.  What are your thoughts on:  

1.  I was surprised to see Peralta had more innings as a KC reliever than anyone in last 15 years with 87 2/3 last year.  Only Guerrier from Twins had more.
2.  What is the danger of Peralta having arm trouble this season with that kind of a workload?
3.  Peralta is the kind of underrated bullpen type that every winning team has and needs.  Takes the ball, doesn't complain about his role, and provides leadership for others.  Is Peralta a lock for the 2008 pen even though he has an option left?
4.  The bullpen depth in KC has me optimistic - I believe the locks are Soria, Mahay, Yabuta, Gobble, Bale and Peralta.  If KC goes with 11 man staff, that leaves everyone else out including Leo Nunez (out of options) who could be a stud in a 1-2 inning role.  How will KC use its depth in the pen?  

KC Star has interesting article on Joey Gathright

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/royals/story/499086.html

For me, it is more condemnation of Buddy Bell for not giving Joey the green light.  As badly as KC was at scoring runs in 2007, Gathright couldn't run except when BB gave him the green light.  Guess BB was waiting for the 3 run homer.  RR fans are running out of chances to bash Buddy so get in while you can.

Haven't heard much conversation about Gathright's role in 2008.  In thinking about KC's roster, the player I see as the most redundant in position and ability is Ross Gload.  He is a backup 1B of which we have Butler and Shealy.  Teahen and Gordon can cover 1B, too.  Can't forget Huber who is out of options and could be backup LF/C/DH.  And Gload is a backup LH outfielder of which we have Gathright who can play all 3 spots.  Costa, Maier, Lubanski are in the mix, too.  

Although I think Gload could be a valuable role player for the right team, just don't see it being with KC in 2008.  Gathright has that one plus skill in speed which people like in backup players.  Shealy's ST will play in huge part in whether Gload makes KC roster or not.

Without having much of my shopping list done for Christmas, I am posting a new diary.  At least I have my priorities right!  I have a feeling that the Royals aren't done filling out the 25 man roster.  So, there is a shopping topic:

1.  What do you think the Royals are still shopping for and will they be able to get it done?  
2.  If you could put one thing on your Santa' wish list, who or what would it be?  Please Royals topics only - no, super model girl friend responses.  

1.  A.  Looking for another pitcher or two for the back end of the rotation like Jason Jennings or Matt Clement.  Hope they don't sign Silva for 4/48.  They'll regret it sooner than later.
    B.  KC will move one of their OF surplus to create playing time.  They have extreme depth in the 4th/5th OF position.  Teahen, DeJesus, Guillen in starting lineup.  Butler as DH (don't include him in LF mix).  Bench types includes:  Costa, Gathright, Huber, Lubanski, Maier, German, Callaspo, Gload.  That is too many for KC

2.  Alex Gordon becomes the superstar that was predicted for him.  320, 30, 110 and the face of the franchise.  

Well, since I posted the Nutty Buddy story, thought I would follow up with the Mitchell Report.  Why do I get the feeling this will be a whole lot of nothing?  When guys like David Segui say they used the HGH but now they are retired, what is the point?  Information will be good but the guys like Paul Byrd, Jay Gibbons, & Jason Grimsley?  Does it really matter?

What are the chances that the players union like be successful with Guillen's appeal?  15 days for being on the report?  Does it matter?  Guys that 5-10 games for fighting.

The power of the union will cover most of the players.  No money will be given back by the players.  The stats and wins are in the book.  

IMO, I'll be glad when the report comes out so we'll have something to talk about in the cold of December, then we can move on toward spring training.  

I just found this story and thought it was funny.  Former Royals Mark Littell has developed a new protective cup called the "Nutty Buddy."  If you want more information, www.nuttybuddy.com.  

Any Royals news is better than nothing.  Might be something to look into for your sons, grandsons or the weekend warrior.  Where were these when I was a kid?

I am listening to the Herd on ESPN and he discussing the dominance of AL over NL.  With the trade of Willis and Cabrera to the Tigers, AL has two more young all star caliber players.  With Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers getting better, the top end of AL is so strong.  

Tigers lineup of Granderson, Planco, Sheffield, Cabrera, Ordonez, Guillen, et. al will make long trips to Detroit.  Tough lineup just like the Red Sox.

Why don't the NL teams keep up like the AL teams do?  

In building the roster, how much does Dayton Moore consider arbitration players?  Signing several high priced FA could mean a few of these guys will be moved or nontendered.  Players currently eligible for arbitration (11 players)

OF Emil Brown (third year of eligibility)

C John Buck (first year)

LHP Jorge De La Rosa (first year)

RHP Brandon Duckworth (third year)

INF Esteban German (first year)

1B/OF Ross Gload (second year)

LHP Jimmy Gobble (second year)

RHP Zack Greinke (first year)

RHP Luke Hudson (first year)

INF Jason Smith (first year)

OF Mark Teahen (first year)

Of these players, which of them would you not offer arbitration?  For me, the obvious one is Brown who is as good as gone after making $3.45 last year.  The one player that I could see KC looking to trade is Jimmy Gobble.  With Bale and Musser in the pen, his LOOGY position could be covered.  Gobble could bring a player that would contribute to the offense or strengthen the farm system.  Why did the Royals keep Jason Smith on the 40 man roster when he is arbitration eligible?  Buck, Teahen and Greinke will make huge raises.  

Another Royals farm hand with rising prospect status is Dusty Hughes.  What would the Royals do with a left hander who throws first pitch strikes and can get lefties out?  Not the hardest thrower but gets results - wow, what a concept!  Kyle Davies and The Rose should pay attention to this one.  There is hope for Rowdy Hardy, too.

http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071120&content_id=2305083&vkey=news_ mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=kc.  

The 2008 Omaha rotation could be Hochevar, Buckner, Lumsden, Rosa and Hughes.  Davies or C. Lewis could be part of this picture depending on the major league staff.  If they make the big league rotation, it will be on merit, not hope.  Is it possible that the Royals are developing pitching depth in the upper ranks of farm system?  Two years ago, Buckner and Hochevar would have been thrown to the wolves in the MLB.  

Blake Wood had a terrific winter in Hawaii and gained some attention as a prospect.  He was ranked 7th ranked prospect in BP and 11th by BA.  He finished 2nd in league in Ks.  

Here is a quote that caught my attention in BP:    
"He absolutely overpowered people, running the ball up to 95 mph" manager Jim Gabella said, "and he really developed a nice changeup here." Now armed with three good pitches and a healthy back, expect Wood to move up the ladder quickly in 2008.

It looks as though Wood will start out in AA as part of a really good looking rotation for the NW Arkansas team.  Cortes, Pimental, B. Johnson, and Wood are top 15 prospects in Royals system.  Rowdy Hardy is the sleeper in the rotation. Wood also has the plus pitches to be a closer or bullpen guy if the third pitch does develop.

Many fans overlook the minor leagues but by the end of 2008, one (or hopefully more) of the guys listed above will be pitching in KC or knocking on the door.  

Has anyone else been surprised with the amount of smart decisions (Jason LaRue signing aside) in the free agent market?  Schilling and Lowell stay in Boston.  Rivera, ARod and Posada stay in NY.  Glavine returns to Atlanta.  All of those make perfect sense to the player and the team. Kenny Rogers firing Boras was a good move, too.  

Who will make THE truly foolish signing for the 2007 off season?  Who was last year's winner for worst signing?  Last year's winner IMO was the Dodgers for their tremendous signing of Juan Pierre. Many thought it was KC with Meche but Gil's performance proved them wrong.  This award can only be awarded at the end of the season.

Was anyone surprised by the ESPN story that Bud Selig announced MLB revenues were over $6 Billion for 2007

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3112210

There are some owners making serious profit in this year's market.  Makes one wonder about civic financial commitments to privately owned teams that seem to lowball salary and budget?

For what often seems to be a game that is mismanaged and stuck in the past, revenues and attendance are up for baseball.  

Thoughts on why so much money is being made in MLB?

Just scrolling through the winter league stats and noticed Mike Aviles is hitting .365 with 1070 OPS in Venezuela Winter League.  What is it about him that can't get him a utility job in 2008 with Royals.  Have heard his fielding isn't great but he can play 3B, SS and 2B.  I would rather have Aviles that Blanco or Jason Smith.  I look for Aviles to be a dark horse to make roster with new management taking a look.  

Other Royals of note - Lubanski hitting 220 in AFL.  Dusty Hughes has good numbers - watch out for him as LOOGY or sleeper LH midseason callup.  I also like Jarod Plummer who pitched in Wichita for 2007.  Matt Wright was called a "strike throwing machine" for Team USA.  Wouldn't it be nice to have a long reliever who will pound the strike zone and eat up innings?

Here's hoping KC signs Fukudome, trade for Carlos Quentin or Carlos Gonzalez from D-Backs and make a trade for major league starter - DeJesus to Giants for Lowry or to Florida for Scott Olson.  Teahen to CF with Gathright as backup.  

Watching Juan Cruz in the D-Backs/Rockies game made me think of Leo Nunez.  Skinny, hard thrower who can pitch in several roles. Nunez could pitch the 7th/8th inning or go a couple of strong innings out of the pen when needed.  He has good stuff - can get Ks.  With the questions about his durability, I'd like to see Nunez in that role in 2008.  

If I were trading with KC, I would ask for Nunez and give up a Milton Bradley, Carlos Quentin type OF.  Good young arms are hard to find.  Nunez was really good most of the time in 2007.

What will KC do with Nunez for the 2008 season?

What does RR think about the renovations to the K?  I have only seen articles in KC Star but I can only think it will help the Royals and the fans have a better ball park experience.  Will the team be a contender by the time the park is done?  What is the coolest feature of new plans?  The K held up pretty well for being 34 years old.  

Some of RR's favorite Royals will be on the 2008 market.  What will the market bear for

1.  Mike Sweeney - remember a few years ago when KC was looking at 2 top prospects for the Captain?
   
2.  Odalis Perez - Someone will always take a chance on a cheap crafty veteran, won't they?
   
3.  Octavio Dotel - Would KC sign him again but as a set up for Soria?
   
4.  Reggie Sanders - Anything left in the tank or hamstrings?
   
5.  Jason Larue and Scott Elarton- I couldn't resist pairing them together.
   
6.  Angel Berroa - Would a team take a second chance on The Devil in a new setting?  How much salary would KC eat to move him or will just leave him in Omaha?

Even though they are NL teams, the teams mentioned above were awful not that many years ago.  I think the Rockies had the 3rd pick in draft after KC picked Alex Gordon.  Justin Upton was a #1 overall just a few years ago.  And, the Cubs, well enough said on that one.

Here's the point - If the D-Backs had 111 losses and made the playoffs so can the Royals.  Remember the Tigers were historically bad and they were terrific last year.  KC needs to continue developing the pitching and have the lineup improve.  Not many veterans with D-Backs and Rockies but lots of good young hitters.  All Rockies key players came up through their system - Helton, Holliday, Tulo, Hawpe and Atkins.  

While the season is winding down, how about some ideas of topics for the offseason?  Here are a couple to lead off and in typical KC fashion, I will not take any pitches.

1.  Saw this on another site - Conduct a poll on top 30 prospects as a continuing thread.  Start with #1 and work down to #30.  RR could provide the choice and we could vote.
2.  Rank the trade value of current Royals on the rosters.  1-10 with 10 being ARod or Albert and 1 being LaRuesville.  I always see the tendency to overrate our own players and underrate the other team.  

Following BA's top 20 prospect list, the Royals had no top 20 prospects in the Appy League and only 1 in the Pioneer League.  Adrian Ortiz was the #19 ranked prospect as a good speed, no power, no discipline OF.  KC collects those guys at all levels.  

On a brighter note, if Mike Moustakas would have had more ABs, he would have been ranked the #1 prospect according to the author's chat.  Clint Robinson was the MVP of the Pioneer League but was a little too old for prospect status.  BA is always fond of young toolsy players over guys who can play.  

An interesting note on Teahen from the KC Star
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/royals/story/291057.html

While Teahen's power decrease is alarming, so are his strikeout totals. 125 Ks in 531 ABs is terrible with only a .412 SLG%.  He also GIDP quite often.  I know he is coming off of an injury and learning a new position with OF but the lack of production in RBI totals and power numbers are concerning.  A new hitting coach can not hurt those totals.  

On the plus is Teahen is only 26 and could rebound well in 2008.  For the most part, he has looked good in RF, has a strong & accurate arm and is a good baserunner.  13SB in 18 attempts is a ratio that a speedster like Joey G. could learn from - it not all about raw speed.  Teahen is the type of guy KC could build around regarding character and desire.  He also seems to be popular with the fans.

Was anyone surprised that Teahen didn't play any 3B this season?  Even when Gordon went to 1B, Teahen stayed in OF.  I am not a gritty baseball veteran but I thought Teahen played a good 3B.  Lots better than German or J. Smith.  

What does KC have with Teahen in 2008?

After last night's performance, I am seriously wondering about the value of Joey Gathright.  All I hear is speed yet he is only 9 of 18 in SB attempts.  I would also think that his speed would help in the field but from what is reported, he isn't a great defender either.  

Perhaps he is one of those players with true athletic ability that doesn't translate into baseball skills.  He is only 25 years old which is young.  When does a team know when a player is an illusion?  Two teams have taken the bait of potential.  GMDM noted that the team needs to add a base stealer to the top of the lineup for 2008.  Wouldn't that be a description of Joey Gathright's main tool?  

So, Joey's value is  . . .

For those of you with a long term view of the Royals system, KC had 3 pitchers who were ranked in the AZ Rookie League top 20 prospects.  Daniel Duffy LHP was 4th, Matt Mitchell was #13 and Sam Runion was ranked #18.  Mitchell and Runion are both RHP.  All are high schoolers.  

Good to see KC building depth in the minors with young pitchers.  These guys are ages away from KC but they have potential.  Duffy and Runion were high picks 3rd and 2nd round respectively.  

You might read this name and think so what.  Who the heck is Brandon Jones?  Jones is one of the best prospects (4th in BA) for the Braves but he was a 6th round pick for the Royals in 2002. Talented multisport athlete in HS.  They didn't sign him and the Braves drafted him in 2003.  He is now a big part of their plans for the future.  Jones will be a top 50 prospect for 2008.

Here's the point - Jones is the type of guy that the Royals didn't commit to in those dark years and KC is still paying the price.  In 2003, they only paid their 5th-10th round playing $1000 each for a signing bonus.  Remarkably enough, Ryan Braun and Mike Aviles have made it this far.  Investing in the minor leaguers, amateur draft picks and Latin American players will pay off down the road.  Not paying Jones an extra 100-200K in 2002 has KC playing the Emils and Reggies of the world with a bare farm system to show for it.  Evidence is the void of prospects in Wichita this year.  Can't invest cheap and not reap the same crop in the future.  Glad to see KC is turning this part of organization around.  Those young guys might not mean anything today but they will be the players we are talking about in several years.  

Seems to me a trend in the past few weeks has been to pitch John Bale as much as possible and ignore Jimmy Gobble.  Bale has had several outings with lots of Ks but does have the habit of allowing inherited runs to score.  Is Gobble hurt or does he have a contract incentive?  Perhaps keeping his numbers down with arbitration coming in the winter?  Or is this a way for the Royals to see what Bale can do as a way to prepare for 2008?

Is John Bale the primary LH in 2008 bullpen?  Could he or Gobble be trade bait in the offseason?  How about Bale is LH starter in 2008 rotation?