Going into 09 the Reds had some obvious positions where dramatic improvement was possible/ Corner OF defense/ SS Defense/ CF offense- they mostly captured this improvement besides the one ugly decision to sign Willie Taveras.

Difference between 08 and 09

Position         Offense         Defense         Combined

1b                     +9               (13)                  (4)
2nd                  +11             (6)                    +5
SS                   (14)            +32                  +18
3rd                   (7)             +11                    +4
LF                   (48)             +39                  (9)
CF                   (4)              +12                   +8
RF                  +15             +21                 +36
C +1              +1
P                      same

So the Reds lineup actually was 59 runs plus from 08 worth 6 wins.  The pitching using FIP was worse in 09 regressing from 4.54 to 4.63.

Going forward if the Reds offense stays around the same at 1st base/ 2nd/ SS/ and corner OF.  They seem to have a pretty easy 50 run improvement from 3rd base/CF.   The defense will probably see a regression @ SS/ improvement at 3rd base/ possible improvement CF- so positional defense about the same as 08.

Without pitching improvement- I see the Reds around the 83 win mark.  If Harang comes back strong and Bailey continues his late season form- the Reds should be in the 85-90 range. 

Interesting NYT article on Sportsvision new camera system which will track player movement.  Sounds like they are testing the system in San Francisco and then plan to install the camera system in all parks in 2010.

With this system it seems you can break down each fielder on the main factors: reaction time/speed/correct path to the ball.  You can compare a player to the average and produce precise Defensive numbers.  For instance you could take Scott Rolen and run a simulation with the batted balls faced by the Reds 3rd baseman and produce exact figures for Runs saved compared to a specific player or league average.  It seems like they are open to making the data public and have the baseball community come up with interesting applications for the raw data.

This could be the biggest event in the baseball community since Bill James revolutionized offensive statics with his runs created formulas and innovative challenges to baseball orthodoxy. 

NYT Article

The excitement over the MLB draft prompted me to examine the Jim Bowden draft history.

Jim was responsible for 11 drafts.  The total WAR value of the players he drafted was 96.7.

His best draft was 1998: Kearns(16.0) Dunn (20.8) BJ Ryan(11.4) Coffey(1.4)- total WAR wa 49.6.

2nd best was 1995: Tomko(9.3) Jason Lareu(9.4) Ray King( 1.1) Rob Malkowiak(5.3) Buddy Caryle(.5)- total WAR 25.1. 

3rd best 1994 CJ Nitkowski(.2) A. Boone(5.3) J Reidling(.6)- total WAR 6.1.

The bad years 2001 - no players made the MLB(Sowers was unsigned).  2000- Dustin Mosely and Schroder generated .2 WAR so far.  1996 Buddy Carlyle produced .5 WAR.  1993 Bako(.3) Sullivan(.3) for .6 total.  2003 Wagner (.2) Dickerson(2.1).   Needless to say Jim had alot of real bad drafts.  

The players drafted by Bowden that had positive WAR: 

1.  Dunn(20.8)  2.  Kearns(16.0)  3.  BJ Ryan(11.4)  4. Jason Lareu(9.4) 5. Brett Tomko(9.3)  6.  Joey Votto(5.3)  7.  Aaron Boone(5.3)  8.  Rob Mackowiak(5.3)  9. S. Williamson(3.2) 10. Broussard(3.1) 11.  Dickerson(2.1)  12.  T. Coffey(1.4)  13.  Ray King(1.1)  14.  Denofria(.7)  15.  J. Reidling(.6) 16. Buddy Caryle.  17.  Scott Sullivan(.3) 18.  Scott Bako(.3)  19.  CJ Nitkowski(.2)  20.  Ryan Wagner(.2) 21.  Schroder(.1) 22. Mosely(.1).     

To put into perspective: the As top 12 players drafted from that period produces 165 WAR and all the players from that period would be around 180 WAR.   The Expos/Nats from the same period- top 12 players produced 176 WAR.  But the Nats squandered much of that value by trading Sizemore, Lee, Phillips for Barton Colon and trading Jason Bay for Lou Collier.  

So the bright spot for the Reds is they didnt get alot of value in the draft but they also didnt give much value to the league.  I would guess the Reds are the only organization that for this period only have 3 players at career plus 10 WAR.