A lot of haters are going to say that any DC can be good in Baltimore. And its true that the talent is always the most important thing. But the Ravens defense has had its ups and downs over the years. And scheme has been a part of it. I watch every game in detail, sometimes multiple times. Last year we had Mattison and his scheme quite simply blew. When Pagano came in it changed everything. He's aggressive, he confuses the opponent, he gets the most out of people. You guys are very lucky.

As to the issue of 3-4 or 4-3 know that Baltimore basically ran both depending on the play.

I see talk of this, it's a waste of time. Everyone knew we needed to kick a GF if we didn't get a first. The ST unit was ready. They have probably kicks 100s of field goals with a normal play clock. I don't know why they took so long this time, but at the end of the day do you really ice you own kicker? It's better to just have billy go out there and kick a chip shot. Its all Billy's fault. He cracked. He will get released. That's all there is to it.

ESPN Football Today Host and Play by Play Announcer Ross Tucker To Visit Bmore for Texans Game

I listen to the ESPN Football Today Podcast daily and its excellent work, I highly recommend you try to find it on Itunes.  The host is Ross Tucker, a journeymen O-linemen for a decade or so who graduated from Harvard and is a really fun guy.  He covers a game a week live and this week its the Ravens/Texans game.  He routinely meets podcast listeners for tailgating, so I was hoping to throw something togethor and invite him.

If you are interested let me know.  Ross is a fun guy that knows a ton about football and has lots of inside information.

I've taken a little interest in the chiefs ever since Football Outsiders made their out on a limb pick for them to go to the playoffs last year.  I felt the Chiefs had made good decisions in the front office and come up with an effective game plan.

Unfortunately, I think last years success protected a dangerous member of your organization, the coach.  Simply put, he is terrible.  You succeeded last year in spite of him, you had an offensive coordinator that put together a great game plan and developed Castle and a front office overriding him and making smart choices.  With the departure of your OC the guy that thought Thomas Jones was a feature back and having Matt Cassel sling it around was back in charge, with predictable results.  Injuries will be a big part of a bad season now, but even without them I think you can sense that the coach is the problem.  If you want to turn things back around, get rid of him.

So what do the Ravens do now?

At WR I don't see many good prospects out there.  Mostly just old guys with attitudes and cast away's.  It would not surprise me if we say to hell with it and go with what we got.

In order to do that we need to improve somewhere else.  The only signings I can think of are Osi if the giants will trade him or Matt Roth to increase pass rush.  I see no impact O-linemen that are better then what we have.

Another option is backup QB, though there aren't many great guys out there.

We have about $3mil in cap plus whatever we get from Ngata restructuring to play around with.

According to Pro Football Talk, a source with knowledge of the cap numbers, here are the seven teams that were in the red:  Raiders ($17.3 million), Steelers ($11.5 million), Texans ($8.5 million), Vikings ($5.6 million), Lions ($5 million), Cowboys ($3.7 million), and Panthers ($939,000).

We will assume that includes all contract restructuring they have done. So the question is, who would you cut if you were the Pittsburgh Steelers? For discussion purposes, we will go with straight salary even though cap salary can be different.

According to Sports City Sports News Service, it appears that Flozelle Adams was already cut and I still think they are $10 million over the cap. What would you do?

My picks:

Last off season I got NFL game rewind, which allows you to watch the broadcast of every NFL game commercial free and jump forward and back to any play you want.  They recently added coaches game film to the feature, allowing you to see key plays from multiple angles.  In addition they reduced the price to $20 for the whole offseason.

As a test run today I watched the Atlanta game, which I missed being in Cancun that week.  It was amazing to watch all of our weaknesses we addressed in the draft in game.

1) Nobody could get physical with Roddy White.  He destroyed everyone we put on him.  Not just the Wilson play, the whole game.  I noticed that nearly the entire season it seemed like our corners played 10 yards off.  You know why?  Because none of them can win a bump at the LOS.  That is why we added Jimmy Smith.

2) Our receivers simply don't have speed and if the other team gets any kind of pressure they don't get open in time.  I noticed this watching Housh in that game.

3) Our team simply can't run to the right worth shit because Chris Chester got abused all game.

Anyway I highly recommend this feature it is a lot of fun.

Judge Nelson ruled in favor of the players injunction to end the lockout.  She did not "stay" her decision, meaning its in effect immediately.  The NFL will try to get a "stay" in court tomorrow, but for this evening the lockout is over.

I doubt any team starts signing people now, but technically they could.  Perhaps we could get the Ngata deal done.  Or people could trade players for picks in the draft.  In fact it would have a huge effect on the draft if it remains in effect the rest of the week.

Advanced NFL Stats tries to break up the contribution of each position group as best is can.  Here are the results on offense and defense for the Ravens.  Note that in a 3-4 OLB are considered LB.

Offense:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/04/draft-needs-according-to-2010-epa_21.html#more

All specialist performed well.  The Ravens offensive line ranked 28th out of the 32 teams.

Defense:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/04/draft-needs-according-to-2010-epa_21.html#more

Ravens rank 30th out of 32 teams at defensive end.

I can hear the objection already:

"Von Miller is an excellent player but there is no way we can select him.  It would cost our whole draft."

Well, maybe.  If we take the draft chart at face value that's true.  But most people agree that the draft chart is out of whack at the top, and some past trades imply this as well.  When the Jets traded up to nail Sanchez at 5th overall, they traded the 17th and 52nd pick in the draft plus some scrub players.  According to the draft chart, they got a massive steal, they should only have been able to move up to #9/10 at best.

Truth is, the draft chart assumes there are a few big prizes at the top.  Some obvious picks like Bradford and Suh last year.  However, I don't think those players exist this year.  Neither of the top 2 QBs strike me as franchise material, I think in any other year they go late first round at the earliest.  And while there are some great prospects out there none of them strike me as being as dominant as Suh seemed to be.  So everyone at the top of the draft wants out, they want out bad, and they are not going to insist on values consistent with the draft chart.

Even if the Ravens couldn't get into the top 5 to get Von Miller, would you like them to trade up and snag one of the stud DE or OT that are expected to go around the end of the top 10?  What if one of the two stud WR dropped to the teens?

This strikes me as a year where everyone would like to be picking around where the Ravens are at 26, because that's where most of these QB prospects should really be going.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2011/sackseer-lets-try-again

In Football Outsiders Almanac 2010, I introduced SackSEER, a model that projects the sack totals of highly drafted 4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers in their first five years in the NFL. SackSEER is composed of four metrics: the prospect's vertical leap, short shuttle time, per-game sack productivity in college (with certain adjustments), and missed games of NCAA eligibility. This particular blend of the prospect's athleticism, production, and the injury concerns and/or off-the-field issues, represented by the missed games metric, would have identified edge rushing superstars such as Mario Williams and Shawne Merriman and busts such as Robert Ayers and Jarvis Moss.

Although it is too early to enter any definitive judgment on last year's draft class, there is no question that this was a rough year for SackSEER. SackSEER's most highly projected edge rusher, Jerry Hughes, played little in 2010; and SackSEER missed on whatever transformed Carlos Dunlap from a healthy scratch at midseason into the most productive rookie edge rusher by year's end.

Most notably, however, SackSEER's controversial 4.5 sack projection for Jason Pierre-Paul now looks silly. Pierre-Paul met his five-year projection in the space of just his rookie year as part of a heavy rotation with the prolific Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. With 4.5 sacks as a rookie, Pierre-Paul is on pace to be slightly more productive than the average highly drafted edge rusher.

Although his present expected value is well short of a DeMarcus Ware or a Clay Matthews, even an average level of career production from Pierre-Paul is a significant surprise to SackSEER. It is still not clear exactly how good Pierre-Paul will be (SackSEER was similarly down on Tony Bryant, who also had 4.5 sacks his first year and ended up with 18.5 in his first five years), but if he develops into the player that the New York Giants apparently believe that he will, it might be a good opportunity to revisit the model to try to find out where SackSEER went wrong.

The real culprit in Pierre-Paul's projection was the huge disconnect between his much-hyped athleticism and his actual performance at the NFL Combine. Pierre-Paul's scores for his vertical leap and short shuttle run were both a full standard deviation below the mean performance for edge rushers. Although Pierre-Paul did perform better in the other Combine drills -- his broad jump and bench press were also below average, but his 40-yard dash and his 3-cone drills were slightly above average -- his workout performance fell afield of what one would expect from a player who was hyped as the next Jevon Kearse. Pierre-Paul appears to be a rare player who is not only extremely athletic, but extremely athletic in a way that does not translate to the Combine.

However, 2010 wasn't all bad news for SackSEER. The other six projections are still on pace to be solid, and the projections for Brandon Graham and Jermaine Cunningham are especially close -- both are on pace to be accurate within two sacks. Moreover, Jason Babin, a longtime SackSEER miss, finally became the player that SackSEER always thought that he would be, recording 12.5 sacks and securing a Pro Bowl nod. Finally, SackSEER would have identified Cameron Wake, who emerged from the obscurity of the Canadian Football League to contend for the NFL's sack crown, as a significant sleeper. Although he went undrafted, Wake had the best pre-draft SackSEER workout since at least 1999, posting a 4.19 shuttle and a 45.5-inch vertical leap.

SackSEER's read on last year's draft class was that the highly drafted edge rushers would be below average. This year, however, SackSEER believes that this class of edge rushers deserves the hype and includes an elite prospect. Remember that SackSEER does not apply to 3-4 defensive ends, so you will not see any projections for Allen Bailey, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward, Cameron Jordan, or J.J. Watt here.

Von Miller, Texas A&M

Vertical: 37.0", Short Shuttle: 4.06, SRAM: 0.76, Missed Games: 4
Projection: 36.4 Sacks by Year 5

SackSEER loves Von Miller, and it is easy to see why. Miller's vertical leap of 37 inches is good, but if anything, it understates his ability to explode. The 40-yard dash and the broad jump scores are, historically, closely correlated with vertical leap performance, and Miller's 4.53-second 40 and his 10-foot-6-inch broad jump actually exceed the mean performance of highly drafted edge rushers by a greater margin than his vertical. Miller's 4.06-second shuttle is amazing -- no edge rusher prospect has run a shuttle at the Combine that starts with a 4.0 since DeMarcus Ware.

But Miller's Combine performance distract from his outstanding production. Miller was not used as a hybrid linebacker/defensive end until his junior year, so the first half of his college career gets a considerable boost from SRAM's positional adjustments. Miller's four missed games are a result of the typical difficulties that freshmen players have breaking into the lineup and are likely a non-issue. Miller has played through all of the injuries that he has suffered in college and has no known off the field or character issues. He even has a cool looking pair of glasses, which is not necessarily predictive of sacks but is highly predictive of awesomeness.

A skeptic, however, would say that SackSEER doesn't tell us much about Miller that we don't already know. We already know that Miller is explosive, quick, productive, and clean off the field, but SackSEER does nothing to address concerns about Miller's size and his ability to hold the point against the run. Size at the edge rusher position has been tricky. Prospects with good size and good SackSEER projections rarely bust, and there have been plenty of players such as Aaron Maybin and Manny Lawson who end up playing down to their size despite impressive athleticism. However, some of the best edge rushers have been undersized, and often severely so. Most recently, Clay Matthews took the NFL by storm despite weighing only 240 pounds at the Combine, and Trent Cole and Robert Mathis have been outstanding despite being well south of the 240-pound mark on draft day.

Although an injury or struggles against the run could certainly derail Miller's career, Miller has the potential to become an elite player at his position.

Justin Houston, Georgia

Vertical: 36.5", Short Shuttle: 4.37, SRAM: 0.61, Missed Games: 3
Projection: 26.0 Sacks by Year 5

Houston has quietly built himself into a solid prospect. He has had steady production, demonstrating consistently better numbers each season on the way to recording more than 20 sacks in three years in the ultra-competitive SEC. Houston also played in nearly every game of his Georgia career, save for three games that he missed due to a team suspension. Houston's workout, much like his Georgia career, was steady and solid, with a good vertical and an average shuttle.

Houston's combine performance is all the more impressive in the context of Houston's 270-pound weigh-in, which was 12 pounds heavier than his listed weight at Georgia. Although Houston was one of the few edge rushers in this draft class invited to the Combine as a linebacker, rather than as a defensive lineman, he is probably better suited to play as a 4-3 defensive end than most of his contemporaries. Houston is a great value pick that SackSEER likes considerably more than most projected first-round picks.

Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue

Vertical: 33.5", Short Shuttle: 4.39, SRAM: 0.70, Missed Games: 1
Projection: 24.7 Sacks by Year 5

Kerrigan gave you about everything you could ask for on the field: He only missed one game during his college career and recorded 33.5 sacks. The question with Kerrigan has always been whether he has the athleticism to translate his college production in the NFL. SackSEER actually has a relatively complicated answer to this question. Although Kerrigan's 33.5-inch vertical leap is an inch below average for the position, there are a number of reasons to be more bullish on Kerrigan's athleticism than his SackSEER metrics suggest.

First, Kerrigan recorded a confirmed 35-inch vertical leap in high school, and it is doubtful that he has lost explosion after four years in a major college program. Second, Kerrigan is one of those uncommon players who underperforms on the vertical leap but overperforms on the broad jump. The broad jump is actually so closely correlated with the vertical leap that there is some uncertainty as to which is the more predictive metric. The vertical leap is the clear leader among highly drafted edge rushers, but the broad jump rallies strongly enough in the later rounds to leave open the possibility that the broad jump could prove to be a slightly more predictive metric for pass rushing success in the future. Kerrigan's short shuttle is only slightly below average, which is probably a win for him considering the questions concerning his flexibility and lateral agility leading up to the Combine.

Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson

Vertical: 34.5, Short Shuttle: 4.45, SRAM: 0.60, Missed Games: 2
Projection: 22.0 Sacks by Year 5

Just a month ago, Da'Quan Bowers was considered a genuine candidate to be the first overall pick. Bowers, however, has not fared well since being placed under the microscope. There are questions about his production, his athleticism, and his knee. Although SackSEER often breaks with conventional wisdom, SackSEER agrees that Bowers is a high-potential prospect with some serious question marks.

Bowers dominated the ACC with 15.5 sacks last year, but recorded only 4.0 sacks in his previous two. Unfortunately for Bowers, the best historical analogue for his sack pattern is Jamaal Anderson. Like Bowers, Anderson was a huge defensive end at 288 pounds, and like Bowers, Anderson had exactly four sacks his first two years before ripping off a 13.5-sack performance against quality competition.

Bowers' inconsistent production would be a little easier to swallow if his workout numbers jumped off of the page, but they are mediocre at best. Although his recent knee injury could provide a credible excuse for his performance, his knee injury is a legitimate concern in and of itself. Knee injuries put a quick end to the career of Andre Wadsworth, and other highly drafted edge rushers with some history of knee injuries include players such as Alonzo Jackson, Dan Bazuin, and Anton Palepoi, who each had short NFL careers.

Bowers should be an incredible prospect: He is a 280-pound end who played through injuries and led college football in sacks as a junior. However, due to inconsistent production and so-so workouts, Bowers has only an average projection, and he probably belongs in the mid-to-late first round rather than the Top 10.

Aldon Smith, Missouri

Vertical: 34.0", Short Shuttle: 4.50, SRAM: 0.62, Missed Games: 3
Projection: 20.0 Sacks by Year 5

Smith is certainly an odd prospect. After accomplishing the unprecedented feat of recording 11.5 sacks as a freshman, Smith declined as a sophomore, recording only 5.5 sacks during an injury-plagued season. Smith's production on the whole is good -- few prospects record 17 sacks in their first two years of college. However, add in a below average Combine performance, and SackSEER feels that Smith is a slightly below average project relative to his projected draft position.

There is an additional red flag for which SackSEER does not (at least not yet) account -- the short but infamous history of redshirt sophomore edge rushers selected in the Draft. There have been only two redshirt sophomore edge rushers selected in the Draft since at least 1999: Aaron Maybin and Paul Kruger, both in 2009. Maybin and Kruger have given their teams almost no production -- they have exactly one regular season sack between them -- and both dramatically underperformed their SackSEER projections. Of course, the sample size here is too small to tell if this is a legitimate trend or the happenstance of two disappointing players who share the distinction of entering the draft uncommonly early, but it is enough to give pause before spending a high pick on a player with inconsistent production and below average agility scores. The concerns associated with redshirt sophomores, consequently, apply equally to ...

Robert Quinn, North Carolina

Vertical: 34.0", Short Shuttle: 4.40, SRAM: 0.56, Missed Games: 13
Projection: 15.5 Sacks by Year 5

Robert Quinn, who missed his entire junior year due to a suspension by the NCAA for accepting benefits from an agent in violation of NCAA rules, is quite possibly the most inscrutable edge rusher prospect that SackSEER has ever seen.

Let's start with Quinn's missed games. In order to be consistent with SackSEER's missed game metric, we need to shave more than seven sacks from Quinn's projection. A season-long suspension is unprecedented -- there is not a single edge rusher prospect in my database who has been suspended for more than a handful of games. The closest analogue to Quinn is probably Trent Cole, who missed a season of eligibility, along with many others, after running afoul of the NCAA's then-controversial Proposition 48 rules for academic performance. Cole certainly turned out all right, so Quinn's missed games are probably not the detriments that SackSEER thinks they may be.

Nor is Quinn's production during college particularly illuminating. Quinn is essentially a one-year wonder, and even edge rushers who collect sacks at a high rate early in their careers can quickly become football versions of the Royal Tenenbaums. A great recent example is George Selvie, who had an even better sophomore campaign than Quinn, recording 14.5 sacks in 13 games. Selvie faded down the stretch, recording only 8.5 sacks in his last 25 games, and was ultimately selected as a seventh-round afterthought by the St. Louis Rams. On the other hand, Quinn has been renowned for his sophomore game tape and was credited with an absurd number of hurries during that season. Hurries are graded inconsistently from team to team, so it is impossible to tell if Quinn was more dominant as a sophomore than his sack numbers would indicate, or if the North Carolina scorekeepers were a bit overzealous when it came to Quinn.

Are you feeling ambivalent about Quinn yet? Quinn's workout numbers are equally confounding. He had a mediocre workout at the Combine, with an average 34-inch vertical and a below average 4.40 shuttle, which is 1.5 inches short from being the exact same workout posted by Vernon Gholston. However, because standing on his Combine numbers would be far too simple, Quinn also worked out at his Pro Day, where he recorded a 4.26-second shuttle but lost an inch off of his vertical leap. He also recorded an amazing 10-foot-5.5-inch broad jump, which is 7.5 inches farther than his broad jump at the Combine. The disparity between Quinn's Pro Day vertical and his broad jump is huge: It is larger than all but five out of the 250 edge rushers drafted since 1999. Historically, numbers for "redo" drills like Quinn's have not had any predictive value, but there is no particular reason to expect this trend to continue.

Given all of the asterisks for Quinn's projection, if we were setting betting lines for Vegas, we would probably take him off the table all together. You probably should not throw your copy of Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 at your TV if your favorite team drafts Quinn, but rather, hope against hope that your team conducted an extremely meticulous analysis of Quinn's game tape and background before taking the plunge. SackSEER grades Quinn as a below average prospect, but it remains to be seen if his projection is a sage warning for teams to be wary of a player with a short record of production and inconsistent workouts, or meaningless mathbabble.

Brooks Reed, Arizona

Vertical: 30.5", Short Shuttle: 4.28, SRAM: 0.34, Missed Games: 5
Projection: 15.1 Sacks by Year 5

Brooks Reed and Clay Matthews are both edge rushers with long-flowing blond locks, but Reed will likely prove to be markedly less Thor-like than the super-powered Matthews. Aside from the bench press and the 20-yard split, Reed failed to meet or exceed any of Matthews' excellent numbers from the 2009 Combine. Matthews and Reed do have similar SRAMs, but Matthews had a much better excuse for his low production. Matthews initially struggled to crack a talented lineup of linebackers at USC until the team finally deployed him as a hybrid defensive end/linebacker during his senior year. Reed, on the other hand, was anointed a starter as a full-time defensive end by his sophomore year, but failed to record more than eight sacks in any year. His two-sack junior campaign was particularly pedestrian.

Reed has received some hype for his 1.54-second 10-yard split, which was the fastest among edge rushers at the Combine. This year there has been a lot of pre-Draft chatter concerning the importance of the 10-yard split for edge rusher prospects. Historically, however, there is absolutely no relationship between a prospect's 10-yard split and his success rushing the passer in the NFL. The 10-yard split is probably more a function of the efficiency of the prospect's "sprinter's start" than the speed with which he can rush the line of scrimmage.

Jabaal Sheard, Pittsburgh

Vertical: 31.5", Short Shuttle: 4.65, SRAM: 0.39, Missed Games: 5
Projection: 10.6 Sacks by Year 5

Much like Pierre-Paul's overtaking of George Selvie a year ago, Jabaal Sheard has emerged as a potential first-round pick. And his previously highly regarded teammate, Greg Romeus, has plunged to late-round consideration after injuries limited him to two games in 2010. Sheard did not demonstrate much explosion at the Combine and struggled considerably at the agility drills during his Pro Day. Sheard also has not been productive despite an abundance of opportunity, recording only 19.5 sacks in four full years of playing time. Sheard's prospects for success certainly are not hopeless, but teams with low first-round picks might be well wise to look to other positions rather than drafting Sheard.

Sleeper

This year, SackSEER generally agrees with the consensus Internet pre-draft rankings for edge rusher prospects, and thus, expects that this draft will lack sleepers at the position. However, there are a couple of exceptions, starting with Dontay Moch.

It is hardly accurate to call Moch a sleeper given the headlines that he has made for his ability to run the 40-yard dash. SackSEER, of course, is more interested in Moch's 42-inch vertical leap, which leaves him explosion to spare. Add to the mix that Moch is a relatively productive player, with 30 career sacks to his credit, and you have a player with potential to bring serious heat off of the edge.

However, there are plenty of reasons to doubt Moch's transformation from workout warrior to NFL sack monster. Moch measures 6-foot-1 and 248 pounds, which is light for even a 3-4 outside linebacker without the potential to add much weight. Moch was productive at Nevada, but his production was hardly eye-popping, especially considering the low level of competition at the Western Athletic Conference.

Moch's upside, however, is tantalizing, and he is absolutely worth a third round pick.

Deep Underground Mining Sleeper

Marc Schiechl hails from the Colorado School of Mines. Schiechl recorded 46.0 sacks for the Orediggers, which is good for a .97 SRAM, higher than every edge rusher in the data set save for Terrell Suggs and Robert Mathis. Although he had only average workout numbers from his pro day -— he had a 35-inch vertical and a 4.50 shuttle -- his freakish production is hard to ignore, even though it came at the Division II level. Although Schiechl is a long shot who may not even get drafted, his profile is similar to Division I-AA prospects such as Mathis and Jared Allen, whose stellar production at small schools foreshadowed similar success at the NFL level.

Deep, Deep Below the Canadian Permafrost Sleeper

If you're looking for a deep sleeper, look no further than the Philadelphia Eagles' relatively unheralded signing of Canadian Football League edge rusher Phillip Hunt. Hunt's career arc is eerily similar to breakout star Cameron Wake's. Hunt was a standout sack artist for the Houston Cougars, notching more 30 sacks, but was not invited to the Combine. Apparently undeterred, Hunt performed admirably at his Pro Day, registering a 41.5-inch vertical leap and a 4.22-second shuttle. As was true with Wake, despite outstanding workouts, Hunt went undrafted due to lack of size.

Like Wake, Hunt sought refuge in the CFL. And again, like Wake, Hunt dominated. After a three-sack rookie season, Hunt recorded 16 sacks for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. His reward was a contract with the Philadelphia Eagles, adding to a high-potential stable of young edge rushers including Brandon Graham and Daniel Te'o-Nesheim.

When I was developing SackSEER, reader Alan Plotzker (who developed a similar database) and I questioned why a player with such an impressive blend of athleticism and production did not even merit a seventh-round pick. If anything, Hunt was a stronger prospect coming out of college than Wake. Although Wake had better workout numbers, Hunt had much better production and did not have Wake's injury history. So can lightening strike twice? It is unlikely that Hunt will match Wake's success, but if he somehow makes his way into the Eagles' starting lineup, watch out.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings/2011/fixing-vikings

Guest Column by Matt Scribbins

The Vikings know their best shot at a Lombardi Trophy was in 2009. They had a Hall of Fame quarterback in a career year and a star running back gashing the league. Their first-round pick, Percy Harvin, was a Pro Bowler. Sidney Rice, 23, had a better statistical season than Jerry Rice did at the same age. The Williams Wall led Minnesota to the second best ranking in Power situations, and the third best Stuffed percentage. Jared Allen recorded 14.5 sacks and led the defense to a fourth-place finish in Adjusted Sack Rate. It was all good in Zygi's Hood, until they fell victim to the Voodoo in the Bayou.

Fast forward to today, and there is no denying that Minnesota still has great pieces. Six-time Pro Bowler Kevin Williams is still playing at a high level at a position that lends itself to longevity. Antoine Winfield is among the best run-stopping cornerbacks in history, and Harvin is one of the league's most dynamic players. Chad Greenway played the last two seasons at a Pro Bowl level and Adrian Peterson is arguably the NFL's best running back.

Zygi Wilf has done everything in his power to bring a title to Minnesota. He slipped Seattle a poison pill and netted All-Pro left guard Steve Hutchinson. He brought in Bernard Berrian from Chicago and was rewarded with more than 20 yards per reception in his Berrian's first season. Allen came from Kansas City and changed the game immediately. Oh yeah, and he also shelled out $32 million to Brett Favre. The moves brought Wilf painfully close to a championship, but now they are a big part of Minnesota's problems.

Steve Hutchinson has declined and missed five games last year with injuries. Berrian should pick up Jim Fassel's Locomotives playbook if he ever returns to Las Vegas for his phone. Jared Allen didn't get going until mid-season, and the Vikings finished 26th in Adjusted Sack Rate after consecutive Top 5 finishes. Maybe most important, Brett Favre has finally retired and Aaron Rodgers isn't waiting in the wings this time.

It is tough to come to grips with the current state of affairs. A year ago, 12 men in the huddle kept the team from the Super Bowl. Now, the Vikings don't know where they will play home games and the depth chart is disastrous.

Winfield is the only employable defensive back on the roster after Cedric Griffin suffered two knee injuries in the 2010 calendar year. Drew Rosenhaus will bag a huge contract for Sidney Rice in a different city. The offensive line hasn't finished in the Top 10 in Adjusted Line Yards in years, and the pass protection is even worse. Pat Williams is leaving for greener pastures and Star Caps will finally sideline Kevin Williams. Ray Edwards made it clear for years he wanted to bolt, and now he will. His projected replacement, Everson Griffen, recently drew superstar comparisons, but Charlie Sheen comparisons in 2011 don't bode well for NFL careers. Obviously, there is a glaring weakness at quarterback as well.

Minnesota's roster might compete in the NFC West, but it won't in the NFC North. Green Bay just won the Super Bowl and actually appears headed for better days. Football Outsiders research indicates a team finishing one full victory below its Pythagorean projection will likely improve the next season. The Packers finished the 2010 regular season with 12.1 Pythagorean wins and a 10-6 record. Stunning. The Bears made a run to the NFC title game and had the most wins in the division last season. The perennial doormat Detroit Lions finished with a 6-10 record, but their 7.8 Pythagorean wins forecast a better 2011. Unfortunately, Minnesota was as bad as they looked and finished with six actual wins and six Pythagorean wins. In division games, contests expected to be competitive, the Vikings were outscored by 65 points.

The Vikings' bell curve needs speed bumps or it could get even uglier. Some of their best players are old and Juan Ponce De Leon isn't visiting Winter Park anytime soon. Look at the ages of the Vikings' best players (during 2011 season): Winfield (34), Hutchinson (34), Bryant McKinnie (32), Kevin Williams (31), and E.J. Henderson (31). Allen (29), Greenway (28), and Peterson (26) are close to their peaks. Thankfully, Percy Harvin (23) has many years left, migraines permitting.

It is conceivable the Vikings could ride AP to a Super Bowl soon. Among the last five Super Bowl Champions, three (Saints, Giants, and Colts) had running backs finish in the Top 5 of rushing DVOA. These same teams didn't have defenses that finished better than 14th in DVOA. The Vikings could certainly achieve both of those measures next year. On the other hand, neither Drew Brees nor the Manning brothers will play quarterback for Minnesota.

How can the Vikings contend again? Acquiring young and talented players is a good place to start. The Vikings have pressing needs at quarterback, defensive back, and along both lines.

Some franchises believe securing players to match up against division foes is a path to relevancy. The Texans drafted Mario Williams to pressure Peyton Manning. Rex Ryan invested in defensive backs to slow down the New England Patriots. Where does this lead Minnesota? The secondary. All three division teams pose problems for the Purple's defensive backs. The NFC North will have Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Mike Martz's pass happy offense for years to come. The Vikings ranked 16th in the league last year against No. 1 wide receivers, and that was the highlight. They were crushed by No. 2 receivers (25th) and beat even worse by "other" receivers (27th).

The Vikings, distrustful of Joe Webb, must address their quarterback situation soon. Recent reports indicate the team is interested in Missouri's Blaine Gabbert. Assuming they land a stellar quarterback in the draft, head coach Leslie Frazier and new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave will still need time to establish their system. Maybe the Vikings will develop a legitimate quarterback by 2013. Remember the ages of the Vikings' top players? Add two years to each and coming seasons in the land of the ice and cold look dreary.

Adrian Peterson has had a great tenure in purple. He took the league by storm as a rookie and posted the seventh-best rushing DVOA among running backs. In years two and three, he fell to 22nd and 23rd, respectively. Last year, he rebounded and finished the season ranked seventh. However, Peterson recently turned 26, and Football Outsiders research has shown NFL running backs generally decline starting about age 28. Add to that Peterson's heat-seeking running style, and his decline could be precipitous. His best years will be behind him by the time Minnesota can develop a quarterback through the draft. The most important use of a running back is to solidify a win, but it's hard to imagine that Bill Musgrave will need No. 28 to bleed the clock in the near future with a new quarterback under center and a roster riddled with uncertainties.

Clearly, finances also come into play. Peterson will make $10.26 million this season and enter free agency in 2012. Is it prudent to pay a huge portion of the salary cap to a running back, no matter how great, on a middling team? Will Peterson want to spend the rest of his productive years in Minnesota? Mix in a more affordable pay scale for rookies, and this is leading to a fairly obvious conclusion.

Can you imagine the booty Peterson could bag? I'm not talking about the aftermath of six-figure drinking with Bryant McKinnie. I'm talking about Rick Speilman fielding trade offers for AP. Every NFL team wants a great running back, and Minnesota has one. New England and Indianapolis historically acquire picks, but they may spare some to land a star of Peterson's ilk for the end of their quarterback's careers. Bill Belichick wants someone to spread the field, and his first-round picks look mighty appealing. The Colts running game was a nightmare in 2010 and made the team ridiculously one-dimensional. A move for Peterson would propel Jim Irsay's tweets to unprecedented levels and help Indy play a Super Bowl at home. Hell, habitual acquirer Daniel Snyder might make Zygi Wilf an offer he can't refuse if Peterson develops a taste for wine. In Texas, one owner may like to see the local kid fill up the big screen every Sunday. Plenty of other NFL teams need a running back too, and some may make the move just to invigorate fans.

Trading AP would understandably create a hole at running back. However, NFL running backs aren't impossible to find. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, the second-ranked running back in 2010 DVOA, was an undrafted free agent after his Mississippi career. DVOA's fifth best running back, Arian Foster, also went undrafted after communicating like a pterodactyl at Tennessee.

Rick Spielman has nailed both of his first-round draft picks since he joined the Vikings. (Maybe part of the problem is they've had two first-round picks in the last four years?) His selections of Peterson in 2007 and Harvin in 2009 resulted in two Rookie of the Year awards and five Pro Bowl selections. A trade involving Peterson would certainly involve first round picks, and Spielman's record indicates he could work wonders with the opportunity. (Feel free to type "small sample size" in the comments.)

Trading a superstar in his prime is begging for a fan revolt, even if Minnesota fans are inured to it (Kevin Garnett, Johan Santana, and Randy Moss). Plus, Peterson is a great locker room guy. He isn't Brandon Marshall, Chad Ochocinco, or Terrell Owens. His teammates and coaches love him, and his opponents respect him. He corrected his biggest on field problem, fumbles, with tireless work in the offseason. His fantasy stats make him one of the most popular players in the league. He is active in the community (not in the Love Boat kind of way) and is a positive role model. A few speeding tickets and looking for a bathroom at McDonald's are the worst things he has done in Minnesota.

Realistically, Adrian Peterson's run in Minnesota will end fruitlessly. Leslie Frazier will coach a contender soon if the Vikings trade Peterson, but not if they keep him. Teams must capitalize when they have a shot at glory. The Vikings didn't. Now, they should turn their most valuable asset into several building blocks. Reversing the Herschel Walker trade is Minnesota's best opportunity to hoist its first Lombardi Trophy.

Matt Scribbins is a one-time safety for, and recent graduate of, Iowa State University. He also writes for Hoopdata and Magic Basketball, and is one of the FO game charters. If you have an idea for a Football Outsiders guest column, something that takes an unconventional angle on a subject related to college football or the NFL, please send your idea or a rough draft to mailbag-at-footballoutsiders.com.

Are you a gambling addict with the problem?  Are you so obsessed with pro football you actually watch the goddamn draft?  Do you participate in way to many office pools or some equivalent?  I've run a very popular draft game in my office that you guys might enjoy.  It is easy to run and pretty straight forward.  Read on if interested.

Every participant has to choose who he thinks the first ten draft picks will be, ordered from #1 to #10.  The object of the game is to get the lowest score, just like in golf.  A player gains one point for each slot he is wrong.  So if you pick a guy to go #4 overall and he goes #6 you get two points.  If you pick someone to go #6 and they go #3 you get three points.  The maximum a person can gain on a single player is 10 points, unless they fall all the way out of the first round, in which case they gain 15 points.

We also offer a special five point reduction if you can correctly pick the position (you don't have to name the player specifically) that your favorite team drafts first overall (it doesn't matter if they trade around or what round its in, just first overall).  People can pick any team as their favorite team, except teams in the top 10 picks going into draft day.  Preferably people would be on the honor code to pick their actual favorites.  I use the NFL draft board that will eventually be up on their website to determine what position a player is classified as.  Its important to specify this because many of the players are hybrid players and anyone could make a case that kindle is a DE or an OLB, so you need one source that spells it out in black and white.

Anyway, we had a tone of fun with this.  Mock drafts give people a pretty good idea where to start and having to pick your own team gives you something to root for after the top 10.  We did winner takes all except money back for second place, but you can do whatever you want.  It definitely made the draft even more fun to watch.

I'll be using some data from the good folks at Football Outsiders, who produce excellent work and you should check them out.  I routinely get their pre-season almanac which I've found to be very useful.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2011/best-cornerback-charting-stats-2010

Its true that the Ravens don't have a top "shut down" corner like Nnamdi.  In fact none of the Ravens CBs made the FO top ten overall corners.  Many fans are calling for the Ravens to put a lot of resources into acquiring a true #1 CB.  I want to outline a few key reasons why I think that would be an error.

First, I think its important to note the two players that didn't make the FO top corners list: Nnamdi and Asante.  Why?  They actually put up very good stats per target, including a league high success rate for Asante.  However, they didn't get targeted the 40+ times necessary to make the list.  That is the problem with having a #1 corner, people can always throw away from him.  Its much better to have depth at the DB spot then just one superstar.

And that is what the Ravens have.  Foxworth, Carr, Wilson, and Webb are all great #2 material.  Foxworth actually had a very good season in 2009 before getting hurt this year, and I expect him to recover nicely since he got injured so early.  Webb was a monster before knee injury and I believe his quick return from a late season ACL showed a little bit in his play, mainly his speed.

So as a group they are solid, but what are they good or bad at?  Excepting the none returning Fabian Washington, they are exceptional tacklers.  In fact both Webb and Carr were in the top 10 for lowest YAC (yards after catch).

The Ravens did very well last year against teams with short passing games, like the patriots.  Wes Welker types get tackled immediately.  We got burned by deep passing teams, including the Steelers.  That is what we need to work on, and I don't think corners is how we are going to address it.

The deep bomb can only happen if the QB has a lot of time, and they did against one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL.  The best way to improve our pass defense lies in a better pass rush, which means putting resources into a DE or OLB to complement Suggs.

Our current corners should be fine.  Foxworth and Webb are locked up.  I'm hopping Webb is even better two years out from his ACL.  I would try to get both Carr and Wilson but would give Carr priority.  Carr played one hell of a season, is still in his prime (28), isn't a headcase, and has roots here in Baltimore (he is working at a law firm in the city during the offseason).

The Ravens will be fine without Nnamdi.