SB Nation User Blog: dcrockett17

"Anatomy of 'No Gain' Missouri's Running Game Against Nebraska"

dcrockett17 — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 20:00:26 -0000

"Anatomy of 'No Gain' Missouri's Running Game Against Nebraska"

For all you Ndamukong Suh lovers out there, RPT over at the University of Missouri's excellent, RockMNation, provides an excellent--possibly Morganworthy--breakdown of a single running play in the Nebraska Missouri game. It was one of several blown completely to smithereens by "King Kong" Suh. It is written as a rejoinder to the hand-wringing that has surfaced about running out of the spread since the loss.

It's worth noting that the principles involved in the play, Suh, Missouri's OG Kurtis Gregory and RB Derrick Washington, were each 2nd team All Big 12 in 2008. It's also worth mentioning that Missouri ran on this line with impunity in Lincoln last year with the same personnel. So, Suh makes it look easy against pretty talented guys who will most likely also play on Sundays.

Stafon Johnson survives surgery but USC career likely over

dcrockett17 — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 21:02:30 -0000

Stafon Johnson survives surgery but USC career likely over

Stafon Johnson is expected to fully recover from a crushed neck and larynx, but his Trojan career is most likely finished.

The mea culpas roll in from Rivals

dcrockett17 — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 11:52:48 -0000

This one from David Fox at Rivals.com

Blaine Gabbert

Missouri will contend in the Big 12 North. Raise your hand if you automatically ceded the Big 12 North to Nebraska or Kansas. Don't be ashamed. I was one of those people, too. I thought the departures of Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman and coordinator Dave Christensen would be too much for the offense to overcome. That was way too hasty an assessment. Mizzou looks just fine with its new personnel. At 6 feet 5 and 240 pounds, Blaine Gabbert certainly looks more like a big-time quarterback than Daniel, and he put up Daniel-like numbers in a rout of Illinois on Saturday: 25-of-33 for 319 yards and three touchdowns. Danario Alexander and Jared Perry look as if they can be playmakers at wide receiver to replace Maclin. Illinois may be headed for another losing season under Ron Zook, but I'm not going to hold that against Mizzou. With the Nebraska game at home and the Kansas game on a neutral field, Missouri will contend for its third straight North title.

Come on man. You're better than that. Ceding a division title to Kansas is one thing, but Nebraska? NU's questions coming into the season are not just as substantial as Missouri's? I'm told Rivals.com has a wonderful database of current and incoming talent. You might want to check it out buddy.

Anywho, the Big XII conference is getting some heavy petting following a very good opening weekend highlighted by Ok. State's comfortable, if penalty-marred, home win over Georgia. This bit of "damning with faint praise" comes from Olin Buchanan.

The Big 12 can play defense, too. Last season, the Big 12 was a league of explosive offense and exasperated defenses. Nine Big 12 teams ranked 74th or worse in the nation in scoring defense, and all but Texas allowed more than 24 points per game. But if the first week is any indication, defense is making a comeback. In nine of the 11 games played so far, Big 12 opponents were held to less than 20 points. Some of those weren't surprising - Northern Colorado wasn't expected to score at will against Kansas and North Dakota wasn't expected to put up big numbers against Texas Tech. But Missouri beat Illinois 37-9, Texas A&M beat New Mexico 41-6, Oklahoma State topped Georgia 24-10 and Oklahoma allowed BYU just two touchdowns in a 14-13 loss. In fact, the highest point total allowed was in Baylor's 24-21 victory over Wake Forest. Last season, Baylor gave up 41 points in a loss to Wake.

Sigh. I don't care to play any sort of "disrespect card" about the Big XII. (The debate over conference supremacy is mostly silly, and generally rules out the most likely outcome that no conference is "best" in any meaningful sense.) Rather, what got under my skin about this bullet point, and by extension this interminable and inherently flawed debate, is that the assorted punditry insists on giving credence to nonsensical starting points like "Big XII teams can't defend" while using as evidence uninformative statistics like scoring defense.

Fred Wilpon: Omar and Jerry Back in the Saddle in 2010

dcrockett17 — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 12:38:45 -0000

The Post is reporting that Fred G. Wilpon (the "G" stands for grission) had a one question press conference yesterday where he made it known throughout the land that Omar Minaya is his guy for 2010. After following up, the Post reports that Minaya remarked that Jerry is his guy.

These sorts of endorsements are of course notorious for not meaning much. I suppose this may play out any number of ways.

Perhaps the worst possibility for Mets fans is that, as others have speculated, the old man has a genuine fondness for Minaya and is simply giving him a mulligan based on this season's injuries. A slightly more cynical possibility is that the Wilpons are simply sticking with Omar because they are simply unable and/or unwilling to take on the expense of overhauling the entire operations. A truly cynical possibility is that the Wilpons want Omar out, but would rather subtly pressure him to resign on his own in order to reduce their liability for his recent contract extension. Having seen precisely this scenario play out between the Knicks and Larry Brown, where there was ambiguity about whether Brown was fired or resigned, this is hardly far-fetched. The Wilpons might leave Minaya as the titular head while undermining his decision-making authority, perhaps delegating more responsibility to Assistant GM, John Ricco. He has certainly become more public in recent months as multiple media sources have speculated that he is the heir apparent to the GM job.

For long-suffering Mets fans that last scenario should really frighten you. The biggest accidents happen in the middle of the road. That is, when organizations carelessly blend different organizational philosophies--often motivated by dreams of cost savings--you can get the worst kinds of decision-by-committee outcomes. The chances of seeing real reform in organizational philosophy seem remote right now. So prepare yourselves to be long-suffering just a little while longer.

Daily News Hot after Bernazard

dcrockett17 — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 13:44:34 -0000

Adam Rubin in Saturday's Daily News notes that Tony Bernazard may be a bully. Tony Bernazard may indeed be a major part of whatever the hell is wrong with the Mets. He may indeed need to go as part of a total housecleaning. For the record, I am inclined to think such housecleaning is necessary at this point for a variety of reasons. If Bernazard is fired however, it really oughta be for the role he has played in constructing the monstrosity that's out on the field this season. On the other hand though, I know a journalistic vendetta when I see one -- and this is starting to look a lot like one.

(More below the fold.)

The majority of the original reporting on the Bernazard Follies has come from a single source: The Daily News. Everyone else is really just following up without much new information. I concede that Rubin is telling a compelling tale. Tony Bernazard, unless these incidents are complete fabrications, looks like a classic bully. If he in fact is one this is an important story to unfold, as workplace bullying is an ENORMOUS (and bizarrely underreported) worldwide problem. However, I might note that in the pieces I have read at the News on this matter Bernazard's behavior is neither linked to this broader issue of workplace bullying, nor is it really put into much perspective in the context of baseball or other competitive sports. (Is Bernazard's behavior better or worse than that captured on YouTube displayed by Christian Bale or Chris Berman?) In baseball, an industry where verbal assault is an accepted aspect of the culture, it is difficult to believe that the throwing of hissy fits is limited entirely to the field of play and directed exclusively at umpires and water coolers. That doesn't excuse any of Bernazard's alleged behavior. It is simply to add some perspective that seems missing from Rubin's reporting on Bernazard -- at least what I have read.

It's the absence of such perspective that, for me, makes this story take on the ring of a journalistic vendetta. I'm not even saying that Rubin's reporting is necessarily false. I'm saying that the clear point to the stories are "here are some reasons Tony Bernazard should be fired." There is no wider significance to the reporting on this matter. The entire point seems to be an attempt by Rubin and/or The News to inject itself into the club's decision making. Journalistic vendettas, I suspect, are just part of the NY sports scene. It's the hand you're dealt as an executive for the Yanks or Mets. In this case though, the timing couldn't be worse -- not that it's ever good. First, it's a distraction. Minaya has promised the public an investigation of allegations made exclusively by a journalist -- and to be fair some of the basic facts are still contested even among journalists. But now, Minaya has promised (and promised) an investigation. So, what precisely should it cover? How far (back) should it extend? How precise should it be? And, what should be on the table in terms of outcomes? These are now all legitimate journalistic inquiries into a matter that really should be in house unless alleged victims of Bernazard's abuse file a formal complaint with the club or MLB. This investigation will not end well. It's entirely too open-ended. No one will be satisfied. Further, if the Mets fire Bernazard over this (very doubtful) that certainly would embolden journalists to insert themselves even further unofficially into the club's operations. Whether they have any real influence in this regard is besides the point. Firing Bernazard over these allegations opens the door to more meddling (not more transparency -- there's a difference). I'm convinced that cannot be a good thing.

For my part, I'm never going to say that a reporter should not report or should sit on a potentially embarassing story. (I'm talking to you ESPN.) I'm saying that with this particular story the vast majority of original information has been generated from a single source. Just as Rubin has said about Bernazard, that's enough for me to raise some questions about precisely what's going on.

The Rams Acquire WR Curry from Detroit

dcrockett17 — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 18:52:07 -0000

The Rams Acquire WR Curry from Detroit

The Rams traded DT Orien Harris to Detroit for former Raider.

Open Letter to Omar Minaya: You are Isiah Thomas to me now.

dcrockett17 — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 16:51:30 -0000

I have Saturday full of chores still ahead of me, but I just had to get this off my chest.

I tried Omar. I really tried. I have tried to give you the benefit of doubt. I have tried to put myself in your shoes, to see the world the way you see it. But this Francoeur deal--this was the last straw. It settled something for me once and for all. Omar, watching you is like watching Isiah Thomas run the Knicks into the ground in slow motion. And just like when Thomas was running the Knicks into the ground I'll continue to bleed orange and blue, but I am counting down the days until you are no longer with my team.

I do not compare you to Thomas lightly. I've written extensively about Thomas. To be fair, I do not believe that you operate with the same utter contempt for others that was the hallmark of Thomas's tenure in New York. However, like Thomas, you have a good--perhaps even exceptional--scout's eye for talent that serves as more of a curse than a blessing. Like Thomas, your stubborn refusal to incorporate serious statistical analysis into talent evaluation is merely symptomatic of a more fundamental problem. That fundamental problem is a propensity to confuse whimsy with insight, worsened by your refusal to construct a staff whose skills and talents truly compliment your own. These flaws in leadership would more than offset even an exceptional eye for talent.

My observation has shown me that these particular flaws tend not to get better with experience. The Francouer deal was just the latest chapter in an ongoing littany of decisions that simply are unsupportable. One need not be a so-called "stat head" to see that Francoeur has a ton of physical ability but simply doesn't draw enough walks or hit line drives in sufficient quantity to be a good offensive player. He'll have a few weeks here or there where he gets hot, but he's not good. Additionally, one need not be a stat head to operate a team under the aphorism, "first, do no harm." Trades that seen equivalent on the surface done just to "shake things up" practically by definition do harm.

So, this is goodbye ~~Isiah~~ Omar. I will always be a Mets fan, but I won't be wasting anymore time trying to understand your perspective. I think I got it now. But please, just leave the team alone.

Season Retrospective: Kyle Fogg

dcrockett17 — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 13:27:15 -0000

This is the fifth installment of a series of player-by-player look-backs at the 2008-2009 Wildcats basketball team. Click the links to see previous installments.

I'll just make this simple and plain. I love Kyle Fogg. His game, his build, and his on-court mannerisms remind me so much of Reggie Geary* it's kinda frightening. Fortunately for current Wildcat fans, Fogg will likely be a better offensive player. (You can see Fogg's stat page at DraftExpress.com.) There were more highly regarded freshmen in the Pac10, but few (if any) were more efficient or productive on a per possession basis than Fogg. (I'm looking at you Jrue Holiday, and you too Demar DeRozan.) Fogg shot 60% from the field using True Shooting Percentage, which accounts for the marginal impact of three-point and free throw shooting. For a frontcourt player 60% is very good. For a guard 60% is outstanding. Fogg shot a healthy 38.3% from the arc, but also got to the free throw line on 43% of his possessions. Fogg was a low usage player, easily the fourth option among the starters. He used only 8.5% of the team's possessions, which was not surprising given the focus on the Big Three of Hill, Budinger, and Wise. Yet he scored a robust 1.11 points per possession, making good use of his limited possessions. He was a net contributor on offense, but without dominating the ball. Fogg also showed a solid floor game. Though he could disappear at times, he wasn't especially turnover prone (just two TOs per pace-adjusted 40). He passes the ball reasonably well (1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio), though I'd like to see him develop that aspect of his game more. He also chipped in 4.1 boards per pace-adjusted 40 just for kicks and giggles.

What initially caught my eye about Fogg, however, was his defense. It was a buddy of mine who first planted the Reggie Geary bug in my ear. Arizona had played its first couple of games before I got a chance to see them, living as I do on the East Coast. My man was like, "Even though he's not that tall he's got arms that drag the floor. He's thicker across the chest and through the trunk and thighs than a lot of guys who play his position--just like Reggie. And, he likes to get up in a ball handler's ass--just like Reggie. Hell, he even looks like Reggie." Fogg's combined steals and blocks were only 1.6 (per pace-adjusted 40), though much of that owes to Arizona's reliance on zone defense. I think we saw Fogg's value in harassing shooters and dribblers in the tournament vs. Utah and Cleveland State when Arizona extended the defense a bit more. I fully expect the stats to catch up to what Fogg brings to the table defensively in Sean Miller's system.

The outlook for Fogg is bright. In some ways I think Reggie Geary is his floor, not his ceiling. Fogg's freshman year was better statistically than Geary's, and compares favorably to Geary's junior season. It certainly compared favorably to the seasons produced by some of the conferences more heralded freshmen. Although he outperformed many of these more heralded Pac10 freshmen, I doubt that the NBA lottery is necessarily in his immediate future. I certainly wouldn't put it past him, but the profie of a 6'1" lottery-bound combo guard typically looks a lot more like Jeryrd Bayless's than Kyle Fogg's. Nevertheless, I see Fogg developing into a "stat sheet stuffer supreme" to borrow a phrase from the inestimable Clark Kellogg. Fogg puts something in every column. He does a lot of things to help a team win, but does them without dominating the ball. I anticipate that he will make the transition to Sean Miller's system quite well, and that coach Miller will fall in love with him just like I did.

* I can hardly blame Sean Miller for bringing in his own staff, but it pained me to see Reggie go. That guy gave his soul to Arizona basketball, and he's a heck of a young coach who helped lay the groundwork for the exodus from USC to UA that we are seeing right now. Good luck at SMU Reggie.

Season Retrospective: Jamelle Horne

dcrockett17 — Mon, 18 May 2009 13:41:24 -0000

This is the fourth installment of a series of player-by-player look-backs at the 2008-2009 Wildcats basketball team. Click the links to see previous installments.

Chase Budinger

Jordan Hill

Nic Wise

Horne played the most minutes of any Wildcat not named Budinger, Hill, or Wise this past season.

Key Stats. In just under 29 minutes per game Horne was something of an athletic "glue guy" for the team. Unfortunately, he had two outright end-of-game brain locks that cost Arizona chances to win. Despite obvious holes in his game, especially on offense, he managed to be a solid contributer. Statistically, Horne looks a bit better to the naked eye than he does on paper. His statistical profile (thanks to DraftExpress) over the first two years borders on dreadful. It was honestly much worse looking than I anticipated. His shooting is very poor (TS%: 48% as a frosh and 49% as a soph), owing mostly to the fact that he really doesn't have a well-developed game. He's not much of a three point threat. Nor is he a strong enough ball handler to be a slasher. Thus, he doesn't get to the FT line very often.

My big issue with Horne's offense is that despite his limitations he's a gunner. His FGAs/possession (95% as a frosh and 86% as a soph) are... umm... not modest. (Yes, you're reading that right. As a frosh Horne shot the ball on 95% of his possessions, and 86% this past season. And it's not like Horne is a post player. He's a jump shooting swingman.) I'd be a bit more charitable about his shot selection were he a better rebounder. Seven-plus pace-adjusted boards per40 isn't horrible for a swingman, but it's far from elite. For a guy with Horne's explosive athleticism and long arms he should be a better rebounder. The thing is, Horne's a high motor player. He just hasn't chosen to emphasize going to the glass.

Because I like Horne, I want to say "well, stats don't capture what he brings to the table," and there is some truth to that. (I'll return to that point.) However, he should be better in many statistical categories, like TS%, rebounding, and assists. About his only real positive statistical contribution is that he doesn't turn the ball over. Even that's sorta damning with faint praise. In Horne's case, he rarely tries to pass. So his turnovers are misleadingly low.

Overview. Having said all that, I still like Jamelle Horne. When I first saw him play I had visions of him developing into the next Richard Jefferson. He's really more like Washington's Quincy Pondexter. Both are long, athletic players that had to move to the wing to play at a high major program. Neither has developed ball skills, and consequently both struggle to play perimeter halfcourt offense. Horne's real value, like Pondexter's, is his defensive versatility. Horne doesn't block many shots or create steals but he's an excellent position defender--a VERY underrated skill that is difficult to capture with conventional stats. Because he can guard any SG or SF, along with many PGs and undersized PFs he gives a coaching staff a lot of options defensively. He's a useful guy to have around.

The big issue with Horne is that right now his offense is so dreadful that it's hard to believe his poor shooting alone doesn't offset virtually anything he produces defensively. Arizona's coaching turmoil has impacted his development perhaps more than any other player. He has obvious athleticism and skills, but he just hasn't developed offensively. Coach Pennell would have loved for Horne to step up and become the 4th starter, but his play never warranted it.

Looking Forward. My sincere hope is that Miller's staff can help develop him, but the prospects are not fantastic when you consider a couple factors. First, gone are any grandiose notions of him turning into Richard Jefferson. He doesn't have that kind of talent, and he will already be 21 in November. He's basically who he's going to be as a player right now in the sense that it's unlikely he's going to add new skills. He has to concentrate on improving the ones he has. Second, when you consider that Miller has recruited wing talent expected to contribute right away, odds are that Horne won't get the attention he needs to reach is potential. But, that's high profile college sports for you. Not nearly as much teaching goes on as one might hope.

Things don't have to end poorly for Horne, who can still develop into a very useful player while improving his draft prospects. It's just that now is the time to recognize what he is and what he isn't. He has two virtually identical seasons under his belt and they strongly suggest that he doesn't excel at any one area offensively, and that much of his value is on the defensive end. That's the player he is right now, and at 20 going on 21 it will be very difficult for him to reinvent himself. It might be wisest for him to concentrate on enhancing his skills. The surest route to the NBA for him is through defense and better rebounding. That's where Horne should start. He must also, however, continue to develop into a more efficient offensive player so that he's no such a liability in the halfcourt. That almost certainly will begin with shooting less.

Season Retrospective: Nic Wise

dcrockett17 — Thu, 14 May 2009 13:07:28 -0000

This is the third instalment of a series of season retrospectives on Wildcats men's basketball players. Click the respective links for previous installments on Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger.

Nic Wise is the third member of Arizona's "big three". Though less heralded nationally than Budinger and Hill, astute Wildcat fans know that Hill may have been the starting pitcher with the nasty fastball and slider, and Budinger the crafty setup man, but Wise was the closer. At the ends of games he had the ball in his hands more often than not, looking to drive, to dish, or to get to the FT line.

It will be interesting to see how Wise is remembered in the annals of Arizona guards from the Olsen era. A lot of his legacy will depend on the decision he makes this summer. Should he return, and make the kind of progress one might expect, I have little doubt that he will take his place on a long list of high quality PGs to play under Lute Olsen. Though it is unlikely he will have the Final Four hardware of some of his counterparts, Nic Wise has worked himself into an excellent ballplayer. (In fact, I'd say he's really about all Arizona has to show for its pipeline into Houston.) Should Wise stay in the draft -- a question I will return to -- I think we'll need some distance to see just how good his three seasons at Arizona really were.

Key Stats. Before jumping into Nic's statistical profile (courtesy of the excellent database at DraftExpress.com), it is worth mentioning that the example he set about managing ego and maturing really should be put into a training video. Wise, considered a prize recruit for promising young assistant Josh Postner, came in a little full of himself figuratively and literally. Built more for comfort than for speed, his freshman season became something of a joke. He averaged fewer than 10mpg, and looked close to collapse half the time. Sometime during or after that first season the light came on. Wise put down the fries and picked up the effort. He came back for his sophomore season in phenomenal shape, and more than tripled his minutes to 29.4mpg!

In most respects Wise is a typical college combo guard. He's a scorer. But what makes him atypical is that he doesn't dominate the ball. In fact, he's played off the ball a fair bit alongside Jeryd Bayless and Chase Budinger. So he's not useless without the ball in his hands. Wise's strength is that he is an efficient scorer; he's not just doing it on volume. This past season he averaged 15.7ppg on a very efficient 59% True Shooting% (TS% accounts for the effects of 3-pointers and free throws). Wise was often the #1 option in tight games late because he gets to the FT line. In the flow, he shot FTs on 39% of his FGAs. Overall he shot just under a quarter of the team's FTs (24.5%), and hit them at just under 85%. So you wanted the ball in his hands down the stretch. Wise also shoots a high percentage from the arc (41.5% in 08-09 and 48.1% in 07-08). On the downside, Nic doesn't give you a lot defensively or on the glass. He doesn't have the size to bother a lot of the guards he faces though he certainly has improved in his ability to stay in front of them.

Overview. The stats back up what I generally saw and felt when watching the Wildcats play. Nic can score but he's not a ball stopper. He tallied an assist on 33% of his possessions (highest on the team) while using up far fewer possessions than either Hill or Budinger. In other words, Nic is an efficient and productive scorer that seems to have a good feel for when to move the ball and when to score. That's a very difficult balancing act for combo guards.

Looking Forward. I have read nothing that indicates that Nic would be anything better than a late 2nd round pick or a free agent. I suspect the scouts will say to him something like, "You have to play the point in the NBA at your size. We know you can score. We want to see you really run a team full time, minus those other two guys." At the same time though, Nic's game is in many ways perfect for the glorified pickup games that pass for talent evaluation in the NBA. So if he works out well he could easily come out of nowhere and get drafted.

So here's the issue for Nic. Can he improve his draft chances more in the workouts or by coming back to school? I certainly hope he comes back to Arizona for selfish reasons, but Nic has to do what's best for Nic.