SBNation.com User Blog: deedubs

Louisville 85, Duke 63: Cardinals slice up Duke's D for an emotional win

deedubs — Tue, 02 Apr 2013 01:33:40 -0000

For me it's impossible to begin recapping this game without first talking about Kevin Ware. There are some images you see that are burned into your memory - Joe Theisman has come up a lot in the last day, as has Michael Bush (also a Louisville athlete). For me, it also brings to mind the Cincinnati Begals' Tim Krumrie (not a link to the video, by the way) and South Carolina's Marcus Lattimore. What I don't remember from those that I know I will from this one was the reactions of those on the court and the sidelines. It's often said that in basketball, unlike in football, the players are exposed - there's no helmet, no shoulder pads. Because of this you get a little closer to them somehow. You can see their faces and facial expressions. Body language is more apparent. They're more human, or perhaps their humanity is just closer to the surface. Whichever it is, we saw raw humanity on the court and sidelines on Sunday night. In watching those reactions that are now well documented, there was no doubt in either the severity of the injury or the genuine concern and love the Louisville players and Rick Pitino have for Kevin Ware. As Clark Kellogg was discussing how the Cardinals might respond once play resumed, I was wondering how I as a fan/spectator would react. I have been a Duke fan for almost 30 years and yet found myself thinking, "How do you not pull for Louisville after this?" I didn't end up veering that far from my steady state, but I did get to the point where I was ultimately OK with Louisville beating my Blue Devils. And for the remaining week of this season, you can be assured that I am now fully in the Louisville Cardinal camp.

Up until and for several minutes after Ware's injury, the game was a heavyweight bout with the two teams trading blows in a game worthy of its stage, or perhaps even a larger one. Of course, with the tourney's #1 overall seed in Louisville and a Duke team that going into the ACC Tourney was projected to be the #1 overall seed, it should have felt like a Final Four (but, maybe more on the seedings later). Louisville was having success with the pick and roll and Duke was finding ways to score with Kelly hitting early shots, Sulaimon dishing some assists, and Mason playing solidly on both ends.

Seth Curry was pretty well covered up in the first half, but he broke free early in the second for 8 quick points. The game was tied at 42 and Duke fans were feeling pretty good. Seth had started to score, some of the Louisville players were getting into foul trouble. It was about that point where Clark Kellogg's question about Louisville responding to Ware's injury was answered. The ball screen that started the pick and roll in the first half was moved further away from the basket allowing the Louisville guards to get a running start heading into the lane toward Duke's bigs, now playing tentatively due to fouls. Peyton Siva and Russ Smith carved up Duke for layup after layup. To make matters worse, when the guards gave the ball up, Dieng was hitting all of his 17 foot jumpers. Duke simply didn't have an answer for Louisville's offense in the second half, giving up 50 points. Gorgui Dieng was fantastic in this game and his performance really punctuated the effect of his absence in Duke's win against Louisville in November. He scored from multiple places on the court and swatted shots on defense from just as many spots.

A veteran team - and Duke is (was) most certainly a veteran team this year - should be able to respond to a run like that. If you can't respond by getting defensive stops, you lean on your offense and at least keep scoring. You force the issue and get fouled for some easy points. You run your offense deliberately and get good shots. Duke did none of these. The ball rarely went into the post for Mason to challenge the foul-addled Cardinal big men. For several minutes Duke didn't drive the lane to get fouls. The Devils settled for quick, challenged jump shots. And they didn't go in. By the time Curry and others began getting to the line, the free throws weren't falling. Duke missed multiple front ends of one-and-ones. Panic set in and the game was over well before the clock hit zero.

I would have hoped for more from a veteran team in the face of adversity. Yes, Louisville had game and emotional momentum on their side. Yes, anyone in the crowd who wasn't pulling for Louisville to start the game (and most of them were) was cheering for them after Ware went down. And, yes, Louisville is a great team that was playing at a very high level. But Duke didn't really show much fight. Someone on the team has to have the "you're not going to beat me today" attitude. Someone has to take it personally when a team is trying to end your college career. That persona has been missing from Duke's roster for a few years.

That said, I am not unhappy with this loss overall, even leaving out the Ware factor. We'll recap the season shortly and evaluate both Duke's and UNC's performances compared to expectations, but the Creighton, Mich. St., and Louisville games constitute a pretty good tournament run for the Devils. In the Creighton game, Duke stopped one of the nation's leading scorers. Against the Spartans, Duke beat a tough Big Ten team (and beating Tom Izzo in March is no small task). And Louisville is currently a buzz saw that's the odds-on favorite to win it all (less than scratch, actually!). I find myself as content in the nascent season's end as I have been in a while (outside of 2010, of course).

ACC Tournament Predictions: Will favorite Duke walk away with another crown?

deedubs — Wed, 13 Mar 2013 19:56:48 -0000

Let's talk brackets. Duke is a resounding (11/10) favorite in the ACC tourney, followed by Miami (3/1) and UNC (11/2). Let's take a look at the matchups in the tournament and I'll pick my bracket. Jump in on the comments section below to add your own thoughts and predictions.

Thursday Games:
#8 BC vs. #9 Georgia Tech (-1): Tech has stolen some games from better teams lately and seem to be playing reasonably well. I will go with the line here and say they hold Rookie of the Year Olivier Hanlan in check and advance to the quarters.
#5 NCSU (-11.5) vs. #12 Va Tech: This one SHOULD be an easy one, even if it is a dreaded 5/12 matchup. The question is whether State decides to show up (isn't it always?). The Pack can throw Brown, Purvis, and maybe even Wood and Warren at POY Erick Green to slow him down. On the flip side, the army of big men VT has will not be a match for either Leslie or Howell down low. I'm going with NC State on this one, though I think we'll know in the first few minutes whether that's the right pick.
#7 Maryland (-5.5) vs. #10 Wake Forest: Let's see; how much closer is Greensboro to Winston-Salem than College Park? Both teams play so much better at home. If Maryland's team were a microcosm of the ACC, then Alex Len would be NC State. When he shows up, he's a monster, but he inexplicably disappears for entire games, and Maryland tends to lose when he does. The Terps might be looking ahead to a rubber match with Duke (I know I am...), but they should take care of business here.
#6 FSU (-2.0) vs. #11 Clemson: What a yawner to end the first round... I don't see a run in FSU this year, and I haven't picked an upset yet. Clemson wins as Booker dominates and Jennings actually hits some 3s...

Quarterfinals:
#1 Miami vs. #9 Ga Tech: The question most people are asking about Miami right now (other than whether Larkin deserved 2nd place in POY voting) is how much gas is left in the tank. It certainly seems like fatigue is setting in when you consider how they took a 3 game conference lead with 4 games left and almost made the regular season race interesting. The deciding factor here will be that Ga Tech beat Miami the last time out, and you have to think Miami will use any and all of the gas left in the tank to avenge that loss. Miami moves on.
#4 UVA vs. #5 NCSU: While I am tempted to slate UVA all the way into the finals so Duke has a chance to avenge all 4 regular season losses by the end of the tourney, that would be ridiculously homer-ish and just plain isn't going to happen. UVA is 13-14 away from Charlottesville this year, and, like Erick Green, Joe Harris could see a barrage of ‘Pack players thrown at him during this game. Slight upset here (or at least going against chalk) as State's many weapons gruel it out in an ugly game, but beat the ‘Hoos to move on.
#2 Duke vs. #7 Maryland: Remember that "one small point of pride" I mentioned earlier when looking at the last 4 games of Duke's regular season? Maryland may not be a rival to Duke, but you can bet the bank that the Blue Devils do not want to send Maryland off to the Big10 on a 2-game winning streak. Focus will be on the Plumlee vs. Len matchup, and while Len will certainly be up for that matchup, the Terps didn't have to deal with Ryan Kelly the last time out, so Len can outplay Plumlee and Duke will still win.
#3 UNC vs. #11 Clemson: Saturday's drubbing on Senior Night in Chapel Hill notwithstanding, the small-ball lineup for UNC has been working well for them, and it should continue against the Tigers. Devon Booker is a force down low that the Heels don't have an answer for, but the rest of the Clemson team, especially Milton Jennings, will get caught up in the running game and play right into UNC's hands. Heels advance.

Semifinals:
#1 Miami vs. #5 NCSU: This could be the game of the tournament. When playing at high levels both teams are fun to watch. Here's hoping they are both at high levels (and it goes into triple OT for the sake of the winner of the 2nd semifinal). Reggie Johnson's tip-in winner in Raleigh capped a great game in the only meeting of these two during the regular season, but Lorenzo Brown didn't play due to injury. State should have some confidence that they can beat Miami when at full strength. If Brown can stay in front of Sugar Shane (a tall order), they just might do it, as all other matchups probably favor the Pack. NCSU lives up to its pre-season billing and advances to the ACC Championship game.
#2 Duke vs. #3 UNC: The old adage says that it's extremely difficult to beat the same team 3 times in a season. Duke will be confident going in after winning so handily in Chappa Heeya a week before. But there's no way UNC goes 1-15 on 3s again in this game. Will Ol' Roy switch it up and put some taller personnel into the game to keep Plumlee from scoring at will down low? Will the Heels wonderfully inventive and unique Harlem Shake video propel them to victory? The answer... is no... This game will be more like the first than the second matchup, which is to say, interesting, but Duke has too many weapons and takes down the three-peat (check's in the mail, Pat) of the Heels. Remember, UNC's 6 game winning streak of small-ball was bookended by, that's right, 2 losses to Duke. (Honestly, did anyone expect a different prediction from me?)

Final:
#2 Duke vs. #5 NC State: If State gets this far, will they pull a Notre Dame BCS performance and "just be happy to be here?" If you look at matchups, I think this can be a game where Rasheed Sulaimon breaks out of his slump. Howell can outmuscle Plumlee, Leslie can stretch as well as Kelly at the 4 (except the 3pt shooting), Brown can give Quinn Cook all he wants, and Purvis or Warren can pester Curry into a tough night. So, the winner of this game is the winner of the Scott Wood vs. Rasheed Sulaimon matchup. My heart obviously wants to go with Sulaimon to show he should have gotten frosh of the year, but I just don't know if that will happen. Wood is a crafty senior and won't get down if he misses early shots. He also should be able to play through foul trouble. Both of those could hamstring ‘Sheed. If State has anything left after 3 games in 3 days, they win in a squeaker. (Again, I am following my boy Stuart's theory that picking your team to lose results in a win/win scenario.)

Or, NC State could lose to VA Tech on Thursday. Who knows this year?

Duke 68, UVA 73: 'Hoos flex their muscles against Devils in Charlottesville

deedubs — Fri, 01 Mar 2013 22:44:40 -0000

That Duke lost to Virginia Thursday night was not unsettling. Vegas had UVA as the home favorite and KenPom.com had the game as the toughest remaining on Duke’s schedule. So, that Duke lost was not unsettling. How Duke lost, though, gave me a pounding headache and anxiety for the rest of the season. This wasn’t an exact replica of the game in Coral Gables. Both games started with Duke getting run out of the gym for the first 6 minutes or so. UVA came out quicker and more aggressive. They fought through screens on defense and immediately double-teamed Mason Plumlee whenever he got the ball. The set hard screens on offensive and went to the boards with more effort than Duke (which is to say more than zero effort). The difference in this game was Duke’s response. I am not saying it was a good response, but it was a response. At Miami, the Devils laid down and died. And early on. The only players with any life in that game were Murphy and Jefferson. In Charlottesville Duke’s response was to get frustrated, but not in a way that incites a stronger, more focused effort. No, it was in a way that incited complaints to the refs, bad fouls, and an overall lack of composure from a fairly seasoned team. It also didn’t allow for any productive adjustments. With UVA fighting so hard through screens and overplaying perimeter passing, no Duke player slipped the screen or gave a backdoor cut. With immediate double-teams on Plumlee, no Duke player cut to the basket when their defender ran at Plumlee. Not that it would have mattered, because Plumlee took to running to the 3pt line to get away from the DT. Seems like these would have been pretty easy adjustments. Mason was the tallest on the court (he often is), but he didn’t square up with the ball high and look for a (non-existent) cutter. This game was not as close as the score implies. UVA was in charge the entire time. If they had hit several open shots in the second half, the score might have approached the Miami whooping. What bothers me about this is that UVA imposed their will on Duke. They were stronger, tougher, and just wanted it more. Take a look at that last sentence. Over the years, wouldn’t I have been talking about Duke? For a team with 4 upperclassmen in the rotation, shouldn’t they be the ones bending the other team to their will? Shouldn’t they be the ones responding positively to adversity? I am not even going to single out Mason Plumlee for his performance in this game (it was really bad). This Duke team right now doesn’t appear to have the fortitude or leadership to manage games and force the outcome. Everyone points to Ryan Kelly as being a vocal leader on the court, and I won’t dispute that. But if he can’t turn this team’s confidence around with his return, I see a future of a 1-2 finish to the regular season, a semi-final exit from the ACCs, and an early round NCAA loss to, I don’t know, Lehigh?

Poll

How does Duke finish the regular season?

3-0 - The UVA game was an anomaly

9 votes

2-1 - Devils pull out a win against Miami or UNC

7 votes

1-2 - Beating only Va Tech

2 votes

18 votes | Poll has closed

The Home Stretch - How will Duke finish out the regular season?

deedubs — Mon, 18 Feb 2013 21:16:03 -0000

Let's look forward at the rest of the regular season and see what we can surmise for Duke. At the end of a 4 games in 10 days stretch the Devils looked physically and mentally drained and finally dropped a game to a middle-of-the-pack Maryland team after trying their hardest to drop games at BC and vs. UNC. Oddly, the NC State game was the easiest of the 4 (though, to be fair, it was also the first of them).
Duke's loss to Maryland and UVA's loss to UNC kept the Devils 1 game ahead of the 'Hoos for 2nd place in the conference and 2 games ahead of UNC and NCSU. Miami survived a scare in Little John to stay perfect in league play and expand their lead to 3 games in the standings with 6 to go.
Looking forward, the final 6 games for Duke are @VT, BC, @UVA, Miami, VT, and @UNC. The first two should be wins with VT struggling and a young BC probably not playing as well in Cameron as they did in Chestnut Hills (or, is it that the Blue Devils just don't stumble through entire games when playing at home?). The games that are more interesting are Miami, @UVA, and @UNC. But how will each of these games actually matter as we look forward?
The Miami game is a no-brainer since the 'Canes are out front and embarrassed Duke a few weeks back in Coral Gables, so Duke will be looking for retribution in the rematch. There could also be a #1 NCAA seed on the line for Duke, while Miami would probably need a pretty big collapse (read: 2+ losses by Selection Sunday) to lose their #1 seed. In the ACC standings, there might not be much hanging in the balance. Miami will likely come into this game still undefeated in conference, hosting the Virginia schools with a trip to Winston Salem in between leading up to the game in Cameron. After the Duke game they host Clemson and Ga Tech. The Hurricanes should be at least 17-1 or, at worst, 16-2 to end the regular season. That would wrap up the ACC regular season before the even play the last 2 games. If Duke beats UVA (and especially if both Duke and Miami beat UVA) then the Devils won't have much to gain in the ACC standings from a win, either.
Tournament spots as well as tournament seeds will likely be on the line when Duke plays both UVA and UNC. The Hoos will probably lose to Miami and beat Ga Tech before hosting Duke, which would put them 2 games behind Duke in the standings going into the game. After that, 2 of their remaining 3 games are against teams desperate to make a move and improve their resumes in FSU and Maryland. UVA will almost HAVE to win against Duke and fend off those other 2 to have a chance at a top 3 ACC finish and be reasonably calm on Selection Sunday as they are currently one of the Last 4 In.
Likewise, UNC seems to be on the inside of the bubble right now, tied for 4th place in the ACC with NCSU one game behind UVA. Last weekend's win over UVA was big for the Heels, as it's considered one of their "best" wins, but few can argue that it was a really quality win. So, the Heels will need at least one more quality win, and NC State and Duke are really the only ones left on the schedule who can accommodate them. Losses to both teams will certainly not help as the Heels hope to show they can beat quality opponents. Also, remember that a 5 seed in the ACC tournament means playing on Thursday, and right now the Heels are in that spot, losing the tie-breaker to NCSU. Nobody wants to play on Day 1, so that will be motivation as well.
Summing it all up, Duke has 3 games remaining against either very tough teams (Miami) or very desperate teams (UVA, UNC). The other 3 games will be simply Taking Care of Business exercises, which hasn't been too easy of late. A 2 seed in the ACCs seems pretty well decided and probably the same for the NCAAs. So, tournament seeding will not be a huge motivational factor for the Devils. The question is whether Duke can get up for the less than exciting games in addition to the more marquee matchups. If Ryan Kelly can come back and play some in these games (and that "if" seems to be growing in size by the day), that might provide a spark. I think Coach K will have to instill in his team a sense of urgency to finish strong while pointing to last year as a cautionary tale. They'll need to channel their inner selves that played in Tallahassee, not the ones who played in Chestnut Hills or College Park.
I am going to optimistically call 5-1 over the 6-game stretch, with no specific game as the one loss. That's 14-4 in conference, a 2 seed in the ACCs. My confidence in that, however, isn't ridiculously high. Here's to that happening, though, and an ACC quarters matchup against Maryland to "settle one old score, one small point of pride"...

Miami 90, Duke 63: Duke secures its spot atop the "enabling court stormings" poll

deedubs — Thu, 24 Jan 2013 03:14:23 -0000

OK, let's get this over with. I need to finish this recap before I finish my second Eagle Rare neat or it will quickly get R-rated...

Miami had a week off before the game against Duke, so the Devils decided to let them shake off the rust and continue their pre-game layup and shooting drills throughout the game itself. Duke rarely put a hand in a shooter's face and seemed to stop the ball even less rarely. Seriously? Kadji gets the ball 70 feet from the basket and dribbles straight to the rim for a dunk while 3 Duke "defenders" waive at him as he goes by?
Sure, Miami started hot, but Duke's half-hearted defensive effort only fueled that fire. The backcourt played some nice "ole" defense while Mason Plumlee's fear of fouls caused him to challenge exactly one shot the entire game. He basically stands under the basket and lets the opposing player shoot uncontested. Guess what? Those are high percentage shots. Coach K needs to tell Mason to foul out of the next 3 games. He needs to find the happy medium of not fouling out and actually playing defense.

Here's what's most concerning about this loss for Duke. You may remember I said something about Quinn Cook having swagger and that making him a leader of this team, perhaps even its MVP? Well, not Quinn, not Mason, hell, not even Tyler Thornton had any swagger in this game. Not even any pride. Duke got punched in the mouth early on and failed to respond. Layed down, in fact. If not for Jefferson and Murphy auditioning for more playing time, the entire Duke roster just wouldn't have shown up. Coach K teams usually center around defense. When all else is failing, you go back to defensive fundamentals and hold the other team down while your offense finds itself. Duke responded in the opposite way in Coral Gables. The offense wasn't clicking, but instead of digging in and making some stops, they hung their heads and allowed a 25-1 run by the ‘Canes. They couldn't even muster enough pride to win the second half, the overall game being decided in the first. Duke lost this game in all the important categories: effort, toughness, desire, and, of course, points.

Here's where I am going to try not to rant. You haven't heard so much about Mason Plumlee and the Naismith Award lately, huh? There are two reasons: he can't score and he doesn't defend. Not sure what happened, but sometime in late December or early January, his offensive game disappeared. When he goes straight to the rim, he gets stripped or blocked or loses the ball. Rarely does he even get fouled. So, he goes away from the basket with hook shots or fall-aways. And he doesn't make many of those. Then there's his aforementioned reticence to challenge anyone on the defensive end of the court. I am trying to do the math here and calculate the positive impact on the game. One alley-oop per game just doesn't cut it... Did you see Kadji completely stuff his ish when he went for the huge dunk? Yeah, we all saw that.

On the plus side, Duke laid a complete egg against Georgetown in 2010, and K was able to use that as a teaching moment, round up the troops, make the proper adjustments, and make a run the a title. Let's hope this game will stick in the minds of the Duke players and motivate them the rest of the year. In K's own words after a bad loss early in his career, "here's to never forgetting tonight."

Duke rolls Clemson 68-40

deedubs — Wed, 09 Jan 2013 15:24:52 -0000

You could make a case for 4 of Duke's 5 starters as the team's MVP thus far in the season. After the annual ugly win over Clemson, let's look at some of those cases, and I'll weigh in on my vote.

Mason Plumlee: MP2 is currently the media darling for POY nationally, and it's a reasonable choice, even after another low scoring game against the Tigers, this time only notching 8 points, narrowly missing another double double. He's averaging 18 points, 11 rebounds, and just under 2 assists and blocks per game. Moreover, he gives Duke a credible post presence. For a jump shooting team like Duke, that's so important as defenses are having to not just stay honest and defend the post, but many times bring a double-team, and Mason showed tonight how good of a passer he can be from the low blocks, leading to open looks at the basket. You may have to go back to Shelden Williams to find this kind of production out of a Duke big. So, why not Mason as the MVP? Well, honestly, he still may prove to the most valuable. But, here's why he might not. I'll not address FT shooting, because, as I have already stated, I think he'll make them when it counts. Even so, he's trending back toward 50% after a hot start to the season. That aside, what I saw against Clemson does concern me. Clemson didn't regularly double-team Plumlee. They left Devon Booker to man him up alone. And Booker came through. He overwhelmed Plumlee physically with a few blocks and steals as well as just pushing Plumlee away from the basket and forcing him into tough shots. On the other end, Booker got himself to the basket quite often. Sadly for Tiger fans, he had trouble converting. Mason of late has looked soft in the post - getting stripped, blocked, shots altered. When receiving the ball with his back to the basket (and not a clear lane to the rim) he's had trouble turning good scoring position into actual scores. So what I am saying essentially is that, were he not on an undefeated #1 ranked team, I don't think Mason would be the leading candidate for POY, and I don't think he's this team's MVP, either.... although I could be wrong...

Seth Curry: Curry is probably the most likely player on the team to explode for 30 points in any game. He's averaging 17 ppg and over 40% from 3pt range. He can create his own shot and can drive by a defender who's in his face to stop the jump shot. He's got long, mid, and short range game. He's top 10 in the league in FT percentage. As pointed out by Len Elmore during the Clemson game, it's hard to imagine how good he could be were he not saddled with that nebulous leg injury that keeps him from practicing. So, why is Seth not the MVP? Well, his size and speed can be hindrances on both sides of the ball. Clemson did a great job chasing Seth around and not letting him get an open look. This can happen when an opposing guard is as quick and/or tall as Seth. On the other side of the ball, a larger, quicker guard can have his way offensively with Curry trying to lock him down. Sadly, there are quite a few guards out there who fit that bill. So, no, a silky sweet, dead-eye shot might have garnered lesser Duke teams' MVP votes, but not this one.

Ryan Kelly: Kelly is the Zen pick for Duke's MVP. The Duke Basketball Report published an article talking glowingly about his grasp of the game and how he reached a point against Davidson where the game was flowing through him - and they didn't mean he was getting a lot of touches. I'll not go so far, but when Kelly is shooting well (and lately he's been shooting really well) he's a tough matchup for anyone. And it's not just his size and his shot; it's just as much his intelligence. Kelly rarely makes a mental mistake, he's almost always in the right spot on both sides of the ball, and his individual defense has gotten to be quite good. He leads the team in blocks, and not because he's a high flyer. And while nowhere nearly as pretty, Kelly's shooting is as good or better than Seth Curry's. So why is this heady "Stretch 4" matchup nightmare with deadly aim and solid defensive skills not the team's MVP? First - inconsistency. While Kelly's percentages are similar to Curry's, Ryan is much less consistent in his shooting. He is as likely to hit every shot as he is to miss every shot. Seemingly, each positive run, like the one he's on now, is countered by a negative run of equal proportions. Second, the "Stretch 4" has its disadvantages. Kelly is second on the team in rebounding, yes, but that's at about half the rate of Mason (5.4 vs. 11.3 rpg) and just above Sulaimon and Cook. This team could certainly use more rebounds out of its forward position. Moreover, when matched up against quicker/stronger opponents, Kelly can pick up fouls at an alarming rate. Against Clemson he tallied 0 fouls, but that whole game had a surprisingly low foul count (12 total for both teams, 14 FT attempts each). Kelly is a great 'glue guy' for Duke, doing a lot of the little things and always making smart plays, but unless he can continue to score as he has been over the last 3 games or so, he's not the MVP.

Quinn Cook: What do you say about a guy who drops Hurley-esque dimes one game and Redick-esque points the next? I have heaped praise on Cook before, and I'll do it again here. Duke has needed a true point guard over the last handful of years (save the bittersweet short career of Kyrie Irving). You could see in the first half against Clemson how much this helps. Look at some of the losses Duke has had in the last few years and a common thread arises - quick, physical opposing guards are draped over Duke's guards the entire game, shutting down the offense. Duke's collection of shooting guards are not able to break free for shots or to distribute the ball, and if defense switches every time, ball screens don't work either. Enter Cook, a guy who's quick and strong enough and with enough handle to create space and run the offense. It took a few minutes against Clemson, but once he figured it out, there was a stretch where Cook created offense by being able to turn Clemson's pressure into a disadvantage. First, he back cut without the ball to the basket for a score. Next, he beat his man, drew interior defense, and hit Mason with a lob. Later, he beat his man, then nearly broke Booker's ankles and headed to the basket for a layup. These things have been missing from Duke's repertoire lately, and it's all well-documented. But here's why Cook is my MVP for Duke right now. Swagger. Quinn oozes confidence in the "you're not going to beat me today" manner that we haven't seen in a while, maybe since Redick, though Redick crossed into bravado a few times, admittedly. He is the extension of the Coach K on the court (how better is "Next Play" exemplified than a career high in scoring immediately after an 0-11 performance?), he can score in multiple ways, he can dish assists with the best of them, he can lock down the opposing PG on defense, he's a great rebounding guard, he's constantly talking to and encouraging his teammates, he hustles as much as anyone else on the floor -- he is the leader of this Duke team, and he knows this, man! The other starters will have their ups and downs throughout the year, but the consistent anchor will be Quinn Cook, setting the tone for the team, because it's his team.

It will be fun to see Mr. MVP going against Lorenzo Brown on Saturday...

Duke 80, Wake Forest 62: Deacons left in the Wake of Duke's 3-pt Shooting

deedubs — Sun, 06 Jan 2013 18:31:05 -0000

A quick glance at the stat sheet shows that Duke looked really great in some facets of the game Saturday against Wake Forest. And really bad in others. Let's do a little Good Cop, Bad Cop to take a look...

Good Devils: 46% 3pt shooting.	Bad Devils: 50% FT shooting (27% in the 2nd half)
Good Devils: 22 assists on 29 made baskets	Bad Devils: Out rebounded 43-35
Good Ryan Kelly: 22 pts (5-7 from 3) in only 18 minutes of play.	Bad Ryan: Fouled out in only 18 minutes of play, and his first shot, a wide open 3, was an airball.
Good Quinn Cook: 14 assists, 1 turnover	Bad Cook: 0-11 shooting from the floor, 0 FT attempts
Good Mason: Another double-double; 5-8 shooting.	Bad Mason: 3-9 from the line
Good Marshall Plumlee: Looking like his big bro going to the basket in the post.	Bad MP3: Looked like his big bro from the charity stripe.

Some of these are just jaw-dropping. In Duke history, Quinn Cooks's 14:1 assist to turnover mark tied Tommy Amaker's 1986 performance and trails only Bobby Hurley's 1993 15:1 outing (pretty good company, by the way). It's probably also been about that long since a Duke player went 0-11 from the floor during a game. That said, Cook's contribution to this team cannot be overstated, and not just from the "finally a true point guard" perspective. He's also a leader on the floor - always talking; always hustling. He was only credited for 1 steal, but a couple of times in the second half he turned Wake over after Duke baskets just by hustling when he wasn't expected to hustle so much.

I really love the 22 assists. An assist on 76% of made baskets means you're getting good, easy shots within the flow of the offense. However, giving up 43 rebounds shows the defense isn't closing out nearly as effectively. It's been pointed out that Duke's "D" is quite good all the way up to a contested shot. From that point to a defensive rebound, the Devils are really sub-par. Rebounding continues to be a potential Achilles Heel for Duke.

Mason Plumlee faced more double-teams for the second game in a row, and for the second game in a row his point production was below his average of 18.4 ppg. A few more made free throws and he would have gotten close to that average. Here's the thing with his FT shooting, though. I think I saw something in his demeanor as he walked to the line during what was at the time a close game in the second half against Davidson. Until that point he had missed most of his free throw attempts. However, he looked calm and confident. He knocked down both, on the way to 7-8 from the stripe in the second half, if I recall, and helped put the game away. I'm going to say it now: Mason makes free throws when it matters. Hack-a-Plumlee will not be an effective strategy. Double-team-a-Plumlee? TBD..

Marshall "Psycho 3" Plumlee got enough run in this game for us to get a little better flavor for his game. He definitely moves more like a traditional post man than his brothers (read: slower, less fluid). What I saw that I liked, though, was how he took two entry passes straight up to the basket. No dribble. No pump fake. The ball stayed above his shoulders on the way to the rim. One attempt ended in a made basket, the other in a shooting foul. Sadly, he bricked both FTs, but I can let that slide for now. Let's hope he continues to get more playing time and get into game shape so we can see what he can really do.

I'll take the bad with the good from Duke's first conference game of the 2013 campaign. Those terrifying lows and dizzying highs will certainly give way to a creamy middle, and that will likely be a place where the Blue Devils can take almost anyone's best shot.

A Post-Challenge Discussion: Where are Duke and UNC Headed Right Now?

deedubs — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 13:58:18 -0000

McLeod: Wow, what a game last night!! Nice comebacks by Duke and the ACC, too. How do we feel now about Jason Williams' (I can't call him "Jay") ACC 1-5 rankings: Duke, Maryland, NCSU, Miami, UNC???

Will: I can't argue with it. Heels could feasibly fall anywhere between 1-7, depending on which team shows up more often. Get Hairston back and James starting and able to go 25 mins/game, and I think we're top 2 or 3. Get Paige comfortable and we'll win it.

McLeod: I'll give you a possible 2nd place if all those "ifs" come to pass. No way Duke doesn't win the league. Head and shoulders better than anyone else. You can come with the November vs March performance argument, but the body of work in November shows a complete, mature, and talented team. Depth is the only issue I see, and that "if" can be silenced "if" Marshall Plumlee can provide any minutes at all.

Will: Too many ifs in play to pen Duke in as winning it yet, depth being a huge one. Not too many teams with all their starters averaging 30+ mpg and only one other player averaging more than 10 at this point. What happens in tightly called games where K isn't able to manage foul trouble like he's been doing so far? What happens when someone goes down w/ a 4-6 week injury? Not to mention, what happens when Mason starts yanking free throws, or when everyone goes inexplicably cold, which will happen more often this year w/o a Dawkins to sub in?

McLeod: The huge minutes by the starters is a concern, but K is not new to that kind of rotation and managing it successfully (see: 2010).

Injuries - no team can plan for that.

Mason's free throws - aside from his last one last night (which barely caught the outside of the net) I don't think it's going to happen. He's a different player this year who came back to school to win/get better.

There are too many weapons on Duke's squad for everyone to go cold. And it's less about the number of weapons than the type of weapons. Plumlee won't go cold from inside the paint; Cook and Sulaimon get to the paint easily and are more versatile than Dawkins. The only outside-only guys right now are Curry and Kelly (and Thornton, but I don't count on his points). This team is much more balanced and less prone to the proverbial Duke 3pt shooting slump.

Will: I didn't see the second half last night, but it sounded like it was a little Sulaimon-Kelly 3-point barrage they depended on to get over the top of Ohio State. If that's not there, it's likely a loss. Even Sulaimon said that once the threes finally started falling, they new they'd be alright. It sounds like they still see the three as a fundamental (maybe even requisite) ingredient to success. What will happen in the several games that arise where that security blanket is absent, due to foul trouble, cold shooting, or a combination of both?

I attribute Mason's improved foul-shooting more to blind confidence in K the Witch Doctor than to any discernible mechanical improvement or self-assuredness in his own ability there. Perhaps he can keep the confidence up all year, but if the demon of doubt begins to creep back in...?

I'm a fan of strategizing to absolutely lock down on the three-point shooters (like Lenzelle Smith on Curry last night), and letting Mason get 20-30 a night as long as you make him earn half of that from the line. The first part of that is terribly difficult, but if teams can do that successfully (or if Duke just misses), I think it's a recipe for several tough losses.

Duke's undoubtedly the frontrunner, but there's a lot that could happen.

Bart: The " if -your -good -players-didn't-do-the-things-they-are-good-at-doing-you-wouldn't-have-won" argument is weak with an extra helping of weak sauce.

Will, I admire your optimism especially as regards Hairston. If everyone on YOUR team suddenly starts playing out of their minds and beyond their years, I agree, UNC might finish better than 3rd.

In all seriousness, I would love for Will to address why this won't be 2010 all over again for UNC. That's a discussion I've already heard and seen a couple of places since the Indiana game.

McLeod: 11 of Sulaimon's 17 second half points were from 2pt shots or the free throw line. That's a healthy mix and proves he has the ability to get into the paint if and when his outside shot isn't falling. 3pt shooting will always be a significant factor for Duke, but this team has other weapons it can rely on if/when needed.

Will, your scenario above still involves 3 different issues striking 3 different players in the same game, or, as you mention *several* games. I just don't see it. Duke won it all in 2010 with "the big three". This team is more balanced and relies more equally on all 5 starters (if only the 5 starters).

Will: My argument wasn't "if-your-good-players-didn't-do-the-things-they-are-good-at-doing-you-wouldn't-have-won." At least not in regards to the OSU game. That is a weak argument, because it's usually true for all teams in any game. I was actually arguing the opposite, in response to McLeod's view that poor three-point shooting won't be as significant a factor for this Duke team. I actually think your good players (like Curry, Kelly, and Sulaimon) need to do the things they're good at (like make threes) for y'all to win ball games against decent teams playing well or good teams playing decently. I also believe there is a significant chance that one or more of those guys finds foul trouble while one or more of those guys goes cold while the other or more of those guys is shutdown by a perimeter defender several times this season.

I'm up for the 2010 debate, (the number one reason it not being a disaster again being that Larry Drew is now in UCLA, where he actually is repeating UNC 2010, or at least the first half of UNC 2011) and I'll even throw in some "why this won't be 2010 all over again for Duke" as well. It might just take me a while, since I seem to have repressed all memories of that season.

Bart: 3 point shooting will not be as significant a factor for this Duke team as it has in most years past ( see Plumlee, Mason) McLeod is right. We had 5 made threes last night. 3 of them came at critical moments, sure, but that's a minuscule number by Duke's normal winning standards. The fact that we won last night gives the lie to your argument.

Scott: The biggest difference for Duke thus far compared to last year is that they have multiple guys that can get in the paint in different ways. It's not just the Austin Rivers show when shots aren't falling. Now, I'll admit that Cook and Sulaimon can still tend to hug the perimeter -- and against teams that CAN'T play OSU's kind of perimeter defense, they get open shots.

But once they understood that the perimeter shots weren't going to be there, but that the drive to the lane was available, everything changed. It wasn't the three-ball that won the game for Duke. It was realizing we could get to the hole, combined with a healthy bit of crashing the defensive boards after making Amir Williams look like Dennis Rodman in the first half.

As for Carolina -- it's not as bad as it seems. I can't imagine them not getting second or third in the conference. I refuse to get my hopes up and think Roy has another missed tourney in him. But man -- if he does, that has to be a pattern. And this time with no championship to hang your hat on.

Bart: Incidentally, Alex and I both think this Year's Duke team is probably better than 2010 or certainly will be by year's end (assuming Seth is healthy).

2010 Duke caught lightning in a bottle. This team can hurt you in a lot more ways, though, like that team (and to Will's most valid point) foul trouble combined with lack of depth will be an issue at some point.

Will: But getting into the paint has always been a part of Duke's game for the past several years--Smith and Scheyer (somehow), to compare to 2010 and 2011--it's just typically used to set up the three. I guess you're saying that K will put more of an emphasis on utilizing penetration for two points instead of three. Ok. It would be a different strategy from the past few years, and I think it's risky to bet on Cook, Curry, and Sulaimon as consistent penetrating scorers, but I hear ya. I probably wouldn't have ever bet on Smith either.

So, is your big three of Curry, Kelly, and Mason as good as your big three from 2010? Probably not. Is your next three of Cook, Sulaimon, Thornton better than Lance, Zoubek, and Miles? Probably. I don't know if it's significant that your next three this year are all guards and your 2010 next three were all post players, but I think it is significant that you have only one true post player averaging more than 10 minutes a game right now, and that you're not planning to rely on the three. Somebody besides Mason is gonna need to get more than five boards a game for you. Perhaps you do have a big five this year instead of a big three, but you've also only got six players averaging double-digit minutes compared to nine in 2010. It's just doesn't seem like the recipe for a team that is going to drive the juggernaut for a whole season.

Duke vs. Delaware: Trap Game!!

deedubs — Fri, 30 Nov 2012 02:54:30 -0000

Duke's November was an unquestionable success, completed with a reversal of last year's post-Maui collapse against Ohio State. During this year's OSU game there was talk about the Devils' physical and/or emotional fatigue. While it did look to perhaps be the case in the first half, the second half looked to be more about dispelling that idea.

Still, the question remains, and may even loom larger with Delaware headed to Cameron on Saturday. Can Duke remain sharp just a few days removed from 4 tough games in about a week, especially with all the toughest competition behind them? No disrespect to the Blue Hens, but an unranked 2-5 opponent is going to be just a bit harder to get up for than a top 5 team that played in the Final Four last year (or 3 of them...).

Delaware was picked preseason second in the Colonial behind Drexel. An early season win against Virginia in Charlottesville boded well for the Blue Hens (and was equally ominous for the 'Hoos, though the Wisonsin win surely took some of that sting away). Delaware has followed that up, however, with 4 straight losses, the last to Lafayette.

The key to stopping Delaware will be handling Jr. guard Devon Saddler, who leads the team in points (21.4 ppg), assists (3.0 apg) and minutes (36.0 mpg). Senior forward Jamelle Hagins is second on the team with 13 ppg, grabbing 13 rebounds per as well. At 6'9" and 235 lbs, he could provide some matchup problems, although Duke held Ohio State forward Deshaun Thomas well under his average production on Tuesday night.

Bottom line - unless the hangover from November is the "I'm never drinking again" kind of hangover, Duke will win this game comfortably. Look for a focus on stopping Saddler, which may increase Tyler Thornton's minutes. Maybe we also see more of Alex Murphy to see how he can do against a relatively smaller team.

I'll be in Cameron for this one to see my good friend Rusty Miller and his National Champion Duke Cycling (@DukeCycling) team get recognized at half time. I'll shoot out some comments during the game.

Duke-UK Postmortem: Report from the Georgia Dome

deedubs — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 21:36:41 -0000

Fun stuff

Crowd was probably ½ to 2/3 Kentucky fans.
Kentucky had its band, mascot and cheerleaders. None of those for Duke. Band and crowd made it like a home game for them. Don’t know why Duke had no one there. KU and MSU had mascots and cheerleaders (not sure about bands).
I talked to one of the "I really hate Laettner" t-shirt guys in the beer line. He was bemoaning the fact that he’s starting to like Laettner, hearing him frequently on sportstalk radio.
The uselessness of the frequent UK crowd chants of "Go Big Blue" seemed lost on them. Even Tar Holes know better.
An NCSU friend of mine texted me before the game thanking Duke in advance for getting the Pack into the AP top 5.
Is Kentucky’s Wiltjer just a pudgy Scott Padgett? My boy Jon was talking about the UK bigs combo of Kid-n-Play and Fat Padgett.

Game notes

- Aside from bigs fouling out, I think there was some good, tough defense played (outside of getting torched on the pick and roll, which is UK’s only offensive play right now).
- Mason looked awkward and clumsy down low at times, but he was pretty successful at both distributing and scoring from the post.
- Curry’s in-game correction – going from putting up scared shots to using the pump fake to get the shot-blockers up in the air – epitomized the difference in the experience of the two teams.
- Sulaimon looks to be a good slasher to the basket, but needs to hone his finishing skills. Looking forward to watching him develop. Jump shot appears to already be there.

Duke 74, Georgia State 55: More Questions than Answers...

deedubs — Tue, 13 Nov 2012 14:09:03 -0000

It wasn’t on an aircraft carrier or military base, and no one was wearing camo, but Duke used a ground attack in the first half and an aerial assault in the second to put away Georgia State. In their first regular season game, the Devils looked reasonably good. There was a lack of flow to the offense, especially in the first half, but that’s likely due to Ga. State throwing multiple defensive sets at Duke. Once the Panthers settled into their matchup zone a remained there for most of the second half, Duke seemed to find a rhythm, started making shots, and put the game away.

It’s a little early in the season to glean a lot of answers from one game, so let’s go over some of the questions that remain for the Blue Devils this season, starting with everyone’s most important question:

• Will Mason Plumlee be a consistent offensive threat? The stat line from this game looks pretty good – 19 points on 8-12 shooting, 14 rebounds, 4 blocks and 2 assists in 35 minutes. I’ll take that every game. With the size advantage he had in this game, though, he good have gone for 30. With the ball on the low blocks, Mason still looks schizophrenic. In the span of three possessions he will make a strong move to the basket (but not finish) on one, triple pump fake and travel on another, and impatiently force up a bad shot on the third. Duke’s chances this year hinge largely on Mason’s ability to emerge as a consistent and dominant threat offensively. Let’s hope he can. Let’s also hope Marshall Plumlee gets and stays healthy if nothing other than to spell Mason from time to time. 35 minutes is a heavy load to carry all season (not that K hasn’t ridden seniors that hard before).

• Can Quinn Cook settle into a productive point guard role? Quinn appears healthy and has some quickness returning, but he’s still trying too hard when running the show. Fran Fraschilla said Cook is a half-second slow in seeing plays develop. It looks to be the case, as he is rocketing all of his passes as fast as he can, as if trying to catch up to the play. His stat line from the game honestly shows a lack of involvement – 2 assists, 2 turnovers, and 2-4 shooting (all from 3-pt range). In 21 minutes a PG should have more assists and/or turnovers as well as get to the rim a few times. Frustration was evident on Cook’s face during the game. Here’s hoping the solution is simply time on the court.

• What kind of contribution will the freshmen make? And why didn’t we see Alex Murphy? We saw 2 of new guys against GSU, and we liked what we saw. Both Rasheed Sulaimon and Amile Jefferson show some smooth athleticism that’s welcome on this team. Sulaimon’s role appears pretty set at the off-guard spot (thought Fraschilla mentioned him maybe moving into the PG role as the season progresses). He shot well and took mostly good shots, hitting 2-5 (2-3 from 3). He also tied Ryan Kelly for the team lead with 4 assists to only 1 turnover. Jefferson’s role is a bit cloudier, especially when Plumlee and Kelly both stay on the floor so much. Hustle, defense, and rebounding are the easy answers, but I’m hoping there are bigger plans than just a more athletic Josh Hairston. The biggest immediate question, though, is why didn’t Alex Murphy play? Krzyzewski said something like the game "didn’t get to where Alex could play" – whatever that means. We’re left to speculate if that means it was a teaching moment or what. Maybe K has found this year’s resident of his dog house. Time will tell.

• Will Seth Curry’s mystery injury be a problem all season? We don’t know what exactly is wrong with Curry, and it’s being said that he can’t hurt the leg worse by playing and simply must manage the pain. That doesn’t sound awesome, but Curry’s play didn’t appear to be affected in the first game. His shot was on (5-10 and 3-7 from 3) and he had one nice drive/spin move to the basket for an and-one. Maybe it will be a non-issue if it’s managed well.

There are some other questions, too, but we’ll leave them to another post – Did the entirety of last season’s thinly veiled chemistry issue move to New Orleans? Will Sulaimon lead the team in floor slapping? What does Marshall Plumlee’s game-face look like if his bench-face is so terrifying?

The season is finally here and with it the games that will answer all of our questions. The Devils are off to a good start and I am heading to Atlanta to see in-person the first test of the year against Kentucky. By the way, that UK vs. Maryland game was a zero sum for me: as I got less worried about the Kentucky game, I got more worried about playing Maryland…