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Around SBN: Johan Santana's No-Hitter Inspires Field Stormer

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defender96

Apr 16, 2008 Jun 01, 2012 9 124

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Interesting article from Wired on new technology in the statistics and analysis area.

about 1 year ago Chevelle_front_tiny defender96 4 comments 1 recs

Sactown Royalty The Importance of Cap Space

 

Ziller mentioned cap space in his Kevin Martin post and it just got my mind running.  This is what fell out.

 

At times I feel like Pavlov’s dog, mouth watering at the ringing of the bell.  I hear the words ‘Cap Space’ and immediately have visions of max contracts to 20-and-10 power forwards or silky smooth point guards ready to drop 15 dimes on an opponent.  We have been conditioned to believe that Cap Space (emphasis intended) is, in and of itself, a Good Thing.  I’m not contending that it is necessarily a Bad Thing but, as with paper currency, cap space inherently has no value other than what it brings in

 

 

Ignoring that cap space does play a role in signing draftees and resigning ones own players I looked at the Free Agency and Trade highlights (lowlights?) of the last 5 or 6 seasons.

 

 

I pulled the FA and Trade acquisitions by the Kings from the 2005-06 season through to this one, popped them into a spreadsheet and out tumbled some interesting figures.  The numbers may not always be precise so I ask your forgiveness if I miss any details.  Anyway, if you stuck around this team after the bandwagon got a little more roomy in the mid-2000‘s none of this should be a surprise.

 

 

Geoff Petrie loves the Bargain Bin

Wow.  Of the 20 Free Agents signed by the team, 12 (60%) were gone within a year (and frequently less).  80% were gone within 2 years.  This is adjusted for camp bodies.

 

 

Impact Vets in Free Agency

Of the 20 mentioned above only 6 (30%) were what I would categorize as ‘Impact Vets’ (i.e. more than a camp body or youth with potential the team was kicking the tires on) including:

 

 

 

Unfortunately, the average tenure with the team for these guys was only 2.3 years (2.0 if you adjust for Shareef’s final season (6 games) and Salmon’s mid-season trade).  Not necessarily the kind of tenure or impact you think of when cap space comes to mind.  Speaking of impact, only Salmons, Udrih and Udoka played at or near their career average Per 36 Minutes stats.  The other guys fell well below.  No one was 20-and-10.

 

 

On the matter of Trades

Now I’m not a cap-ologist (I’ll defer to my betters here) but my understanding is that we can only take back 125% of the value of any player contracts traded so while trades do have an impact on cap space I’d say it’s not quite the same as it is for free agency.  With that said, let’s look at Petrie’s success in the trade department.

 

 

Swap ‘Em

Ok, now things are getting ridiculous.  28 players swapped, 4 immediately dumped, 17 jettisoned within 1 year (63%), 81% gone within 2 years.  That’s a lot of U-haul trucks, people.

 

 

How about Impact Vets?

Here is where things get a little more interesting.  By my estimation, 36% of the guys we acquired were Impact Vets.  The list includes:

 

 

 

Not bad.  Unfortunately, for these guys the average number of seasons with the team drop down to only 1.16 (when you consider almost all were acquired mid-season).  Of them, only Artest was/has been with the team for more than 2 seasons.  And we wonder why the team struggles with continuity.

 

 

But how was their impact?  

No question that Petrie has been much more successful in acquiring quality players in the trade arena.  Wells, Artest, Rodriguez and Diogu* ( *small sample size) exceeded their career Per 36 Minute numbers while with the Kings.  Williams, McCants and Dalembert are at or near those numbers while Hart, Nocioni and (moreso this season) Landry have fallen short.  

 

 

Sacramento - Where The End Of Your Career Happens

Last number for you.  30% of the players the Kings acquired through Free Agency or Trade never played another game in the NBA following their tour with the team.  Ever.

 

 

 

Ok, so what’s the point?

After looking at the numbers, Petrie’s player acquisition efforts appear at best frenetic and at worst psychotic.  The roster churn of 1 and 2 year rentals on players is baffling, don’t the Kings have a scouting department to evaluate these stiffs before bringing them in?  If they can’t play, why are we acquiring them?  Bringing us back to the Bargain Bin reference before, it’s as though Petrie and Company are sorting through the discount DVD bin at Wal-Mart desperately searching for that one copy of ‘Unforgiven’ only to keep stumbling on ‘Batman and Robin’.  

 

Sacramento saw a resurgence in the late 90’s due to a confluence of talent acquired through the draft, trade and free agency.  We need to quit nibbling around the edge and just take a big bite by overpaying in free agency for a talented vet that sees a light at the end of the tunnel with this team.  Lastly, we need to hope that another in-his-prime-former-number-one-pick-and-rookie-of-the-year gets in trouble with his team so we can trade an aging vet for him again and get this team going back to the top!

 

 

Go Kings!

 

 

 


27 comments  | 

Conspiracy Theory
The NBA fixed the 2002 Western Conference Finals so that Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O'Neal and the Lakers would beat the Sacramento Kings.

Why People Believe It
In Game 6, the Lakers attempted 40 free throws, including 27 in the fourth quarter. The Kings shot 25 for the game. Several calls seemed awful at the time. Since then, point-shaving ref Tim Donaghy has alleged that the NBA advised two of the three referees in the game to tilt Game 6 toward L.A. so the series would go seven games.

Upon Further Review
(On a scale of 1 to 10, how believable is this?)
I'll give it a five, and let me explain: I don't believe for a second that David Stern tells his officials to fix games. Never, in a thousand years, would I believe that. It would make Stern a felon, and also a moron -- the NBA has far more to lose than gain by doing that. Stern is way too smart and principled for that.
So: why a five? Well, we're talking about believability here, and a lot of people in the NBA are suspicious of referee assignments. They will never say it publicly, but they complain privately.
Certain zebras have reputations for favoring certain teams, or for being unfairly harsh to certain players. It's not about fixing games or even about boosting television ratings. Sometimes it's just about personalities and styles. So the NBA wouldn't have to tell anybody to do anything unethical. It could just assign a certain ref with the expectation he will help the right team.
I'm not saying this happened. I'm saying that, when coaches, executives and players in your own league believe it could have happened, you get a five on the believability scale.

over 1 year ago Chevelle_front_tiny defender96 21 comments 2 recs

That attitude we heard so much about? Damn right it's there. But it's fire, intensity, and the desire to flat-out destroy his opponent, especially other big men. It's exactly what so many other bigs are lacking, and why they end up a very different kind of bust. Cousins rages because he cares. It's that simple. To say that his personality can be rough or stubborn at times is to say that he's a gamer. Attitude on the court, if it's this kind of edge and determination, is the exact opposite of what off-court attitude will sow.

almost 2 years ago Chevelle_front_tiny defender96 14 comments 1 recs

Dives into a freezing Sacramento River to save a damsel in distress! Incredible.

over 2 years ago Chevelle_front_tiny defender96 17 comments

Why no field goal???

Any ideas (besides complete coaching and time management ineptitude) on why Dallas didn't try for a long field goal at the end of the first half? They had a time out (or at least ample time to spike the ball) and were only around the 30-35 yard line. Am I missing something?

over 2 years ago Chevelle_front_tiny defender96 4 comments