SB Nation User Blog: dejackso

Royals Favored!?

dejackso — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 13:41:55 -0000

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview?gameId=280803107

According to ESPN's Accuscore, the Royals are favored to win Sunday's game with their chances at success at 57% compared to the underdog Sox who only have a 43% (incredibly these scores add up to 100 thus negating the possibility of a tie). Also, Buck, Gordon, and Guillen are equally likely to hit a HR this game.

In an related note, ESPN has proposed to use .001% of their total available coverage on this game versus 61% coverage for Favrervevererv and 53% coverage for NYY or BOS (I assume that some coverage will be speculation on a Yankee - Packers deal).

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Oh yeah, Hi everybody. I've been busy a lot so I haven't had a lot of time to post / read post / argue with NYRoyal. I also saw that Ross Gload's mom...err...Joel is back on the site. Hey Joel!!!

OT: Baseball thesis topic help

dejackso — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 19:22:07 -0000

I hope this is appropriate to post here, but I'd like some input from people who come to this site (because you guys are awesome and smart [you are Royals fans after all..and I'm done kissing up]).

I'd like to know what kinds of questions or things that you might like me to look at in my thesis (the abstract will be below)

I'd also like to see if anyone has an interesting or clever idea for a title...

Here's my 1st draft abstract:

The purpose of this thesis project is to examine the effect of culturally derived game theory strategies on the success level of players in the game of baseball. In addition, I will reexamine issues surrounding both marginalization and centrality of players over time in the sport of baseball using new methods and statistics. Specifically, I plan to look at both the influence of how various Latin American cultures teach the game in order to better ensure success of players at the MLB level versus how the game is taught in the United States and Japan. In order to accomplish this goal, I will look at the factors that led Latinos to adopt baseball in their culture and how game strategies have been adapted to best get noticed by MLB scouts. In this study, I will use advanced statistics referred to as SABRmetrics to evaluate player impact, performance, and playtime. These statistics will then be compared to a number of other variables such as ethnicity, nationality and age to come up with a multi-factorial analysis of the effect of culture's influence on player success.

Rex

dejackso — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 15:29:26 -0000

People at the ESPN message board are annoying. Apparently, the last game is entirely on Rex. They think that because his QB rating is 67.1 in 7 games, that he hasn't improved after the benching.

However, if you're going to talk about Rex, at least give the correct stats. He has a 67.1 rating in total, but since you are talking about after his benching...here are his post-bench stats

73 for 130 (56.2%) 897 yards 3TD 1INT

That's a QB rating of 82.1. The post benching performance includes playing against the 2nd and 3rd best teams that Rex Played against.

Statistically, he is showing improvement which isn't suprising for a player with less than two full seasons of actual playing time. We definitely should stick with him until the end of the season and see if it sticks.

However, he needs to improve more if we are going to keep him. Although the O-line is horrible and is the leading cause of QB pressure and misthrows, Rex doesn't help. He's more David Carr than he is Tony Romo in that regard. He needs to step up into pressure...about 40% of those sacks are on Rexy and they are drive killers. If he can't do that, then he's a career backup...however, he has shown improvement so far...he could learn this.

Next season, it is cruicial that we fire Turner and upgrade the line (maybe replace Moose)

OT: someone mentioned that he was 5 for 14 in the 4th quarter and that means he sucks. I'd like to mention that several of those passes were desperation passes to try to win the game. He wasn't horrible in the 4th...he was mediocre.

Apparently, we have already won 63 games...

dejackso — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 15:45:04 -0000

From Baseball Prospectus
Full Article here

Sept 9, 2007

Kansas City and Washington didn't break out champagne flutes this week when it happened but both clubs felt relief when notching their 63rd wins of the season, ensuring neither would finish with 100 losses.

The Royals ended their string of three straight triple-digit loss seasons. The Nationals reported to spring training amidst predictions that might lose 110 games with a pitching staff that appeared ragtag at best.

Of course, a season of less than 100 losses doesn't exactly excite Royals GM Dayton Moore, used to winning division titles on a yearly basis from his days in Atlanta's front office. "I think it would be very easy for us to think this is a major accomplishment or successful season," Moore told the Kansas City Star. "In reality, it's just not."

[for rest of article...follow the above link]

Byron Gettis

dejackso — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 15:34:37 -0000

From Baseball Prospectus
Full article here

Byron Gettis, TE, Southern Illinois University

On Saturday night, I went to my first college football game, strolling over to the campus of Northern Illinois University to catch their home opener against Southern Illinois. It was a pretty remarkable game for a number of reasons, including a 20-point, fourth-quarter comeback by the visitors, but it was a 10-second stretch in the third quarter that struck me. After an incomplete pass, the stadium announcer came over the PA system - "... pass intended for number eighty-four, Byron Gettis." I thought it was just a coincidence at first, but then I started wondering. Nearly ten years ago, when the Royals signed Gettis, he was a huge football star with Big Ten scholarship offers, and he was from... the southern part of Illinois.

[this part of the article can be seen from the BP website]

According to his SIU bio, he's also writing a book about his baseball experience; I'm looking forward to reading it.

Why are people still supporting Bell?

dejackso — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 14:12:32 -0000

Here's are some quotations from last night's game...

there is a reason why bell
has one of the worse winning percentages of all major league history..............we are seeing it before our very eyes this september

by smarsh on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 10:48:32 PM EDT

In response:

I can give reasons
1.Lack of starting pitching
2. Front office not spending money
Every team that fired Bell was WORSE after he left.

by jbrocato on Tue Sep 11, 2007 at 11:04:14 PM EDT

I don't get the support for Bell thought process

Bell's Tigers record (1996-1998) 184W 277L
Win % = .399

After Bell [Lance Parrish] (1998-1999) 82W 104L
Win % = .441

Tigers got better when Bell left

Bell's Rockies record (2000-2002) 161W 185L
Win % = .465

After Bell [Clint Hurdle] (2000-2007) 426W 505L
Win % = .458

Rockies stayed about the sam after Bell left

Note: All of these teams had a lack of starting picthing and front office support with and without Bell.

Can prospects be rushed?

dejackso — Mon, 30 Jul 2007 23:35:54 -0000

A further musing from the article Well, that was pointless

I'm going to keep the initial post short and hope that discussion in the comments below will allow for more illumination. However, is the old axiom about rushing prospects true? Why do people believe it to be true? Is it truly statistically significant or is it a case of people latching onto ballplayers who failed that were bound to fail anyway.

The basic crux of this entry is whether a prospect can be "ruined" from being rushed up to the majors and then shelled. Thus, we should ignore any injuries sustained from young players coming up to early (pitchers that come up to early and hurt their arm arguments can be ignored...because it's fairly obvious that overworking young pitchers is bad).

Instead, let's focus on the supposed mental damage that a bad outing or outings can have on the development of a pitcher. This is something that separates Baseball and Football Prospectus writers...in that the former tend to mention prospects as being "rushed" and damaged whereas the latter rarely mentioned that a rushed prospect can be permanetly damaged. The FP thinking is that most players that could be damaged mentally would have been damaged long before reaching that far and that the players who are permantely damaged after being "rushed" would have been damaged eventually anyway. Thoughts?

Deadspin Versus Baseball Prospectus...

dejackso — Mon, 26 Mar 2007 17:12:26 -0000

Apparently, the people at Get Untracked have recently done a blog entry on the negativity of the stat-oriented BP and how they may NOT be the most negative site on the web regarding sports.

http://getuntracked.blogspot.com/2007/03/bp-hope-and-faith-versus-deadspin-snark.html

Surprisingly, the people at Get Untracked have decided to completely ignore the existance of the Royals (see the two comments toward the end of the page of the above article).

In the interest of Royal fandom, here is the season preview off of Deadspin. This one is written by Bradford Doolittle from the Kansas City Star.

http://deadspin.com/sports/baseball/baseball-season-preview-kansas-city-royals-241517.php

Baseball Prospectus is obviously saving the best for last as KC hasn't been previewed quite yet. However, the following is the front page of the BP season preview project. Hopefully BP will soon show the glory of the Pena, Jr. Trade. Yes, it must be in all caps.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=228

For completionists on this ongoing and tragic story, here is Deadspin's response on their negativity.

http://deadspin.com/sports/baseball/we-are-more-depressing-than-baseball-prospectus-245568.php

wii - missing pitchers

dejackso — Thu, 22 Feb 2007 23:23:02 -0000

I am posting this from my nintendo wii. Weird. Is that a first for this site?

Anyway, does anyone know what happened to Nunez and Carrasco? I don't remember hearing about them last season. Similarly, where is Bobby Madritsch? He looked good before his injury while with Seattle. Is he still in baseball? We picked him up for 2006, but I assume that he went straight to AAA.

What happened to this guy?

dejackso — Thu, 11 Jan 2007 17:57:19 -0000

Moved from the Diaries...

Joe Dillon

He got hurt and ended up coaching in 2003, but then he came back and began to hit really well in AAA. He had a brief stop with the Marlins in 2005 and then nothing in 2006. He could be an interesting pickup for Omaha (and maybe a OF/1B/Sweeney-replacement for the Royals if he worked out) as I'm guessing he'd be cheap.