SB Nation User Blog: demondeaconsbaseball

2010 Detroit Tigers: An Exercise in Roster Building

demondeaconsbaseball — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 01:34:55 -0000

[Editor's Note: Promoted from the FanPosts, for the sake of some off-day discussion.]

So, to get our minds off of Twins-hate season, I figured that I would write something about the 2010 Tigers roster to change the subject. Everyone around here knows that I've been of the opinion that we should sell the role players to make the team better for 2011, but I've been thinking, and I believe that we have a shot to contend next year provided DD makes the right deals. The Royals and Indians will still suck, and the Twins and White Sox will have to take a lot of risks, so there is an opening as well. So, I've decided to reconstruct the roster to contend in 2010. More after the jump.

I devised a set of rules to begin with when playing with the roster. They follow.

1. The primary goal is to develop a winner. Cutting payroll is nice, but Mr. Ilitch wants a winner, and it doesn't matter what the payroll is- if the Tigers lose, we lose more money than if the Tigers win and we jack payroll by 20 MM. Why? Nobody wants to spend on a loser.

2. If we can make moves to cut payroll, we do.

3. We use every asset we have, but we do not trade prospects. The goal is to contend next year, but not at the expense of building a dynasty for 2011.

4. Sacrifices must be made. Team favorites will go in favor of prospects and free agent signings.

5. All free agent signings must be short term and cheap- I'm looking to a lot of role players to complement the core of Cabrera/Verlander/Jackson/Granderson.

6. Defense is still important, but we've also got to score more runs. So we are willing to sacrifice some defense for offense, but not much.

7. NEVER BUY BULLPEN PITCHERS. We've got enough in-house to solve all our relief problems now that DD and David Chadd spent an entire draft hoarding them. Plus, relief pitchers are volatile as is.

Expected roster for the 2010 Detroit Tigers

C: Gerald Laird (arb eligible)

1B: Miguel Cabrera ($20MM)

2B: <empty>

3B: Brandon Inge ($6.6MM)

SS: <empty>

LF: Carlos Guillen ($13MM)

CF: Curtis Granderson ($5.5MM)

RF: Magglio Ordonez ($18MM)

DH: Marcus Thames (arb eligible)

BN: Alex Avila ($400K)

BN: Ramon Santiago (arb eligible)

BN: Clete Thomas ($400K)

BN: Ryan Raburn ($400K)

SP: Justin Verlander(arb eligible)

SP: Edwin Jackson (arb eligible)

SP: Rick Porcello (1.025MM)

SP: Nate Robertson ($10MM)

SP: Jeremy Bonderman ($12.5MM)

RP: Bobby Seay (arb eligible)

RP: Fu-Ti Ni ($400K)

RP: Zach Miner ($400K)

RP: Ryan Perry ($400K)

RP: Casey Fien ($400K)

RP: Dontrelle Willis ($12MM)

RP: Armando Galarraga ($400K)

Total Salary: $101.825MM (not including arbitration for Laird, Thames, Santiago, Verlander, Jackson, Seay)

*league minimum is roughly $400K

Moves:

Resign Ramon Santiago at 1yr, 950K

Razor Ramon is a great bench player who deserves to stick around.

Resign Bobby Seay at 2yr, 3MM

Ladies and gentlemen, the likely closer for the 2010 Detroit Tigers. A reliable relief pitcher who doesn't always give us heart attacks. Not Joe Nathan, but cheap and reliable.

Trade Marcus Thames for prospects

Yes, this is the first major sacrifice. But Thames is getting very expensive very quickly, and this is an easy way to save between $2-3MM.

Trade Gerald Laird (arb eligible) for prospects, Alex Avila ($400K) becomes starting C, Dusty Ryan ($400K) becomes reserve C

Another (probably) controversial move- but Laird is arbitration eligible and likely making more than $3MM next year. While stellar defensively, he's been worth the same as Avila (.9 WAR) in 300 more plate appearances. Selling him high to a team looking for a good defensive catcher could net us something nifty and could save us some cash. Plus, Dusty Ryan makes a cheap backup.

Sign Justin Verlander at 5yr, 55MM

Our first big move is locking up Verlander at a Greinke comparable contract (this one is $4MM for 2010, $6MM for 2011 and $15MM for 2012-2014). Locking up the ace is a good move, and this should save us some money in the long term while giving us another anchor to build around.

Sign Edwin Jackson at 5yr, 48.5MM

Another Greinke-style contract, Jackson takes 3MM in 2010, 5MM in 2011 and 13.5MM in 2012-2014. Lock up another building block for our future dynasty.

Sign Rick Ankiel at 1yr, 5MM

Yes, his bat's been crap. But he's got a great glove and an even better arm and that bat has upside. This is a risky move, but I think Ankiel might be willing to do it in order to regain some value. If this doesn't work out, the Tigers can always call up either Wilkin Ramirez or Ryan Streiby to play some corner OF.

Resign Adam Everett at 2yr, 3MM

Opie's been a great shortstop in the field, and I'm willing to make the sacrifice in offense here. Plus he deserves a 2 year deal- this will make sure he resigns with us.

Sign Carl Pavano to a 1yr, 2MM contract with 5MM in incentives

He's been an absolute pain for us to face. What better way to avoid facing him? Pavano is a quality innings-eating option (worth 3.5 WAR this year) and he'd fit in wonderfully in the back of our rotation.

Trade Dontrelle Willis ($12MM) and Carlos Guillen ($13MM) to the Cubs for Milton Bradley ($9MM 2010, $12MM 2011)

This move sounds absolutely nuts, and I know I'm going to get slammed for it. Sure, Bradley is a clubhouse cancer. Sure he's a health risk. But I'm willing to bet that he'll shut up on a contender. Plus he's hitting .257/.378/.397- that OBP would play well at leadoff. And we can play Ordonez and Bradley at DH/LF so they both stay healthy. We also jettison Willis, who the Cubs can rehab, and say goodbye to Guillen, who is still a competent hitter that the Cubbies can slide in RF or LF. I'd be willing to throw in up to $13MM in cash to get this deal done (Guillen's 2011 salary) as well, but I think the Cubs are desperate and that they'd take this if offered. If not, we could always just deal them Willis and dump Guillen as well.

Trade Zach Miner (arb eligible) for prospects.

This is a great idea- deal the starter to someone who needs a starter- and it also saves us on what Miner would cost in arbitration.

Offer Placido Polanco arbitration, let him walk. Replace with Scott Sizemore

Yes, everyone loves Polly. Yes, his glove is great. Yes, he makes a lot of contact. But he's an expensive player who is going to want to get paid like an expert glovesman (which he is) and an above average bat (which he is not). Some team will hand him a nice contract this winter, but we should not be that team, especially when we have the solid and cheap Scott Sizemore down on the farm. An upgrade with the bat (less contact, but good on base ability and better power) and a slight downgrade with the glove (Sizemore's slightly above average), this is a good lateral move that saves Detroit oodles of bucks next year.

Move Jeremy Bonderman to the bullpen

Remember when I called Bobby Seay the closer of the future? I may have lied. Bondo may never regain all his stuff and he may never be able to start again. But if he gets his slider back, he may be a decent shutdown closer for the Tigers.

Prepare to have a revolving door in the bullpen

Not a move in and of itself, but we have so many good relief prospects we can afford to mix and match beyond the big four (Seay, Bondo, Ni, Perry). To start out with, I recommend Armando Galarraga taking Miner's old job, Casey Fien grabbing a role in the 'pen and Alfredo Figaro working in mop-up relief.

The DemonDeaconsBaseball proposed 2010 Detroit Tigers Roster

C: Alex Avila ($400K)

1B: Miguel Cabrera ($20MM)

2B: Scott Sizemore ($400K)

3B: Brandon Inge ($6.6MM)

SS: Adam Everett ($1.5MM)

LF: Magglio Ordonez ($18MM)

CF: Curtis Granderson ($5.5MM)

RF: Rick Ankiel ($5MM)

DH: Milton Bradley ($9MM)

BN: Dusty Ryan ($400K)

BN: Ramon Santiago ($950K)

BN: Clete Thomas ($400K)

BN: Ryan Raburn ($400K)

SP: Justin Verlander ($4MM)

SP: Edwin Jackson ($3MM)

SP: Rick Porcello (1.025MM)

SP: Nate Robertson ($10MM)

SP: Carl Pavano ($7MM)

CL: Bobby Seay ($1.5MM)

SU: Jeremy Bonderman ($12.5MM)

SU: Ryan Perry ($400K)

LOOGY: Fu-Ti Ni ($400K)

MU: Casey Fien ($400K)

MU: Alfredo Figaro ($400K)

MU: Armando Galarraga ($400K)

Total Salary: $109.575MM (down from 115.085MM in 2009)

Flame away!

Tigers Top 10 Prospects- Midseason Update

demondeaconsbaseball — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 02:19:57 -0000

[Editor's Note: Promoted from the FanPosts, for the sake of discussion. I'm not sure enough people have gotten to read this.]

Since I'm the quasi-prospect guru here on BYB, I figured that I should do something content-related on the farm system. Now, I'm no Matt Wallace, but I thought a look at the top 10 prospects in the Tigers farm system might be worth doing. After all, most of the preseason prospect rankings are moot at this point (I saw somebody in the Tiger blogosphere using a C+ ranking for Casey Crosby?!?!?) and an updated list midseason makes sense. Alas, I was lazy then (and had draft coverage to worry about). Plus, it makes sense to wait until the trade deadline so you make sure you don't write an extended piece up on a prospect that's being sent to the Mariners (or anyone else for that matter).

As for what I'm looking for in top prospects - that's simple. First, I favor players at higher levels over young, toolsy types. Plate discipline, contact ability and power are the three things I'm looking at for position prospects. Of those three, plate discipline is far and away the most important. I'll probably favor guys who can get on base over the uber-toolsy young prospects with little plate discipline. For pitchers, I'm looking for strikeout rate, walk rate and homer rate. I also heavily favor starters over relievers. An additional note- my list will not include either Rick Porcello or Ryan Perry - both of those guys would easily be #1 and #3 in the system, but since everyone knows who they are, what's the point, right? On with the show!

1. Casey Crosby, LHP, West Michigan Whitecaps, 20 years old

9-4, 2.64 ERA, 96.2 IP, 10.43 K/9, 4.10 BB/9, .28 HR/9

It's no secret I love Casey Crosby, so much that I shouted down pretty much every trade rumor regarding him before the deadline. Why am I such a fanboy? Take a look at that K rate- in his first full year of pro baseball, Crosby has dominated A ball hitters, and that strikeout rate is proof. His secondary stuff (curve and change) have a ways to come, and he's got an injury history (Tommy John in his past), but he can get it up to 96 or 97. Combine that with a potential second plus pitch in his change, and he's enough to make a prospect geek like me start drooling.

2. Alex Avila, C, Erie Seawolves (now the Detroit Tigers), 21 years old

387 PA, .264/.365/.450, 12 HR, 52 BB, 77 K

A catcher that hits for a good amount of power with decent contact skills and good plate discipline? What's not to like? As Tigers fans are now finding out, Alex Avila is the real deal as far as prospects go. Defensively he could use some work, but he's made drastic improvements at AA and for a kid that's been catching for 2 years now, he's doing just fine.

3. Wilkin Ramirez, Corner OF, Toledo Mud Hens, 23 years old

403 PA, .271/.347/.450, 13 HR, 39 BB, 121 K

He's a strikeout machine. That's the first thing that comes up when I think Wilkin Ramirez. He K's far too much to be anything other than a 4th OF in the majors right now. But there's definitely something there- he's loaded with tools, with excellent speed, a very good power stroke and decent enough contact rates. He just needs to get some strike zone judgment- if there's a potential impact player in this system besides Crosby, Ramirez just may be it.

4. Ryan Strieby, 1B/LF, Erie Seawolves, 23

319 PA, .305/.421/.561, 17 HR, 48 BB, 78 K

He's gonna hit. While Strieby is on the DL with wrist problems, and while wrist problems are no laughing matter, I still have faith in this kid. If those wrist woes clear up, the Tigers have a monster on their hands. Strieby improved his K/BB rate this year dramatically- he's walked two more times in 150 less plate appearances (at a higher level, too). He's had power- 29 HR last year, 17 this year. He can hit for a decent average. Scouts love his stick. His defense, though… well, let's say he'd be great as a DH. If Streiby could play left field, it would be a minor miracle (and he was trying it out before his injury). If not, the Tigers will probably DH the kid. I'll repeat- he's gonna hit.

5. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Erie SeaWolves/Toledo Mud Hens, 24 years old

Erie: 229 PA, .307/.432/.535, 9 HR, 35 BB, 46 K

Toledo: 209 PA, .308/.382/.467, 5 HR, 19 BB, 30 K

Sizemore is the heir apparent to the second base job in Detroit. With the numbers this kid puts up, Detroit is probably going to let Placido Polanco go ahead and walk. He's got an incredibly good bat for the second base position- he'll be above league average, with gap power, decent contact rates, good discipline and an okay glove- nothing spectacular, but he's going to make a good living in the major leagues.

6. Alfredo Figaro, RHP, Erie Seawolves, 24 years old

5-2, 4.10 ERA, 68 IP, 7.81 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 1.06 K/9

The Tigers system starts getting a whole lot fuzzier after #5. I thought I'd include Alfredo Figaro here because… well, he's a solid arm, at least. His numbers aren't incredibly flashy, but he is what he is- a solid SP prospect in a system with little to no depth. Figaro has a good sinking fastball that he throws in the low 90's with what Baseball Prospectus 2009 calls a "promising curve and change". His stuff isn't phenomenal, but he made it through AA with a decent enough strikeout rate and a low walk rate. Figaro has a definite chance to be a #3 or a #4 starter if everything breaks right. Of course, he has to get healthy first.

7. Cale Iorg, SS, Erie Seawolves, 23 years old

421 PA, .221/.270/.358, 11 HR, 24 BB, 119 K

Like I said, this system thins out quick. Iorg's got tools, but not much else. What Iorg certainly does not have is plate discipline, and that impairs his contact ability and power. He's got a good power stroke… when he can get the bat on the ball. But until Iorg learns to take pitches, he's hosed. I will end with a happy comment though- Iorg has really turned his defense around- he now rates as a plus defensive player with a solid arm. So this season hasn't been a total washout.

8. Casey Fien, RHP, Toledo Mud Hens, 25 years old

2-1, 9 SV, 3.56 ERA, 48 IP, 9.75 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, .75 HR/9

For the life of me I don't understand why Fien isn't up. He's got a great K rate, a great walk rate, a good home run rate. He's got great control, two solid pitches (fastball/slider, I believe, though he does have a change) and still isn't in the major league bullpen. Fien is what he his- a 7th or 8th inning arm, not a shutdown guy, but a good guy to have around nonetheless.

9. Zach Simons, RHP, Erie Seawolves, 24 years old

1-1, 2.44 ERA, 48 IP, 9.00 K/9, 3.94 BB/9, .19 HR/9

This is where the system really thins out. The 9th and 10th slots could have any number of prospects, but I'm rather fond of Simons, who was obtained from the Colorado Rockies for Jason Grilli. Simons has a curve and fastball that both have plus potential, and has put up a really good strikeout rate and HR rate in AA. It would be nice if he could walk a few less batters, but he's still a decent bullpen prospect in the long term. Who knows, being traded for Simons could be the best thing that Jason Grilli has ever done for the Tigers.

10. Tyler Stohr, RHP, West Michigan Whitecaps, 22 years old

3-3, 2.44 ERA, 48 IP, 7.68 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, .19 HR/9

The tenth spot could have realistically gone to any number of players. I considered a slew of bullpen arms, a couple outfielders, a middle infielder and a catcher for this slot (they're my honorable mentions, if you're interested). But Stohr is a solid arm in a system desperate for prospects. He throws a fastball that sits between 92 and 94 and touches 96. His slider flashes plus occasionally, and he's got decent control.

Honorable Mentions:

RHP Cody Satterwhite: Big righty with command issues but good stuff.

OF Casper Wells: Lots of power, lots of speed, good defender, bad discipline.

RHP Brett Jacobson: Big righty with good stuff- decent bullpen arm

OF Andy Dirks: Fast, good on base skills, possible table setter or 4th OF

2B Brandon Douglas: Projects as a bench guy, good hitter but old for level

RHP Scott Green: Good power arm- stop me if you've heard this before…

C Dusty Ryan: He's still got potential as a good glove with power. Perhaps a future backup.

Detroit Tigers: Draft Day Analysis

demondeaconsbaseball — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 03:28:47 -0000

[Editor's Note: I thought we'd move this over from the FanPosts for the sake of discussion, since demondeaconsbaseball has been following the process so closely for Minor League Ball. We'll have more analysis of the Tigers' draft - I know a couple of people who feel quite differently on Detroit's second-round pick, for instance - from around the blogosphere later on.]

2009 Detroit Tigers Draft: Day 1 Exit Analysis

So since I covered the Tigers in the mock draft over at Sickels' site, I figured that I'd cover them in the real draft as well. Below the jump is my analysis of Day 1 of the 2009 MLB Entry Draft. Updates will be made in the comments as the draft progresses.

Needs

The Tigers have a gutted farm system. We all know that. After trading for Edgar Renteria and Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis last year, the cupboard is bare, especially since we've promoted our consensus #1 prospect to the big leagues (Rick Porcello). What's left isn't exactly inspiring. Our current best prospect is either Casey Crosby or Cale Iorg. Crosby has an electric arm but control issues and an injury history. Iorg has no plate discipline to speak of.

The system also has a few pretty good catching prospects in Alex Avila and Dusty Ryan, both of which will probably see some time in the show as either starters or backups. Second baseman Mike Hollimon also deserves a nod. Note that the system is devoid of position prospects and starting pitchers outside of these three. This is definitely an area where Detroit needs improvement.

What the Tigers have in spades is relief pitching. After spending our top four picks on college relievers last year, it makes sense that we have a bunch of solid players for future Tiger bullpens. Throw in players like Casey Fien, Freddy Dolsi, Clay Rapada and Zach Simons, and we've got relief pitching in spades. This has it's advantages- relievers are a volitile commodity, and it's always nice to be able to stock a bullpen quickly. Unfortunately, it's hard to get much for relief prospects in trades, so it's unlikely that Detroit will flip any of these guys for any major needs.

The Draft

Pick #9: Jacob Turner, RHP, MO HS
I don't like this pick as much as I want to. Turner is a good player- heck of a fastball and very projectable. He's a Chadd guy all right. What I don't like is that his breaking pitches lag behind his fastball, and he's got command issues and delivery flaws. It's really hard to fix delivery problems (see Dontrelle Willis), and any player that keeps fastballs up in the zone is going to be punished eventually.

That being said, Turner really isn't a bad pick on his own merits. What makes this a bad pick is who we passed up on. Tyler Matsek, the lefthanded prep prospect from California, was selected at #11. Aaron Crow, indy ball righthander and former first rounder, was chosen at #12. Grant Green, shortstop from USC was chosen at #13. Alex White, UNC right hander, was chosen at #15. All four of these pitchers, in my mind, would have been a far better choice than Turner.

Why? Matsek was the top lefthander in the draft, Crow was an electric arm last year and is an electric arm this year, Green was the top infielder in the draft (and arguably second highest position player) and Alex White was a dominant starter at UNC, one of the best baseball schools in the nation.

Now, bear in mind that I'm not a scout. I haven't watched a bunch of video of all of these players, and I'm not in the heads of Tigers brass. But I can't for the life of me decide why we passed up on Matsek, Crow, Green or White (or even Shelby Miller, chosen at #19). It's not signability- none of these players are going to be had cheaply, not even Turner. Forgive me for questioning David Chadd, but I'm not one to only concern myself with tall kids with good fastballs. And if I was concerned with tall kids with good fastballs, I would have gone Matsek, Crow, White or Miller.

This pick is forgiveable, but disappointing.

Pick #58: Andrew Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma St.

This pick is unforgiveable. Remember how I wrote all about Detroit and it's depth in relievers? Well, guess what Oliver will be doing for the rest of his career. He's got a very good fastball, and very good fastball command. Combined with a devastating change, he's a great prospect, one that reminds me of Fernando Rodney. The problem is that Oliver has no breaking ball to speak of, dooming him to the bullpen. That's what's so unforgiving here.

For the love of all that is good and holy, take someone like Brody Colvin. Sure, he's got mechanical problems, but he's got a hell of a fastball and a good breaking ball- he may even be better than Turner in the long run. Now, Colvin could be coming in Round 4- he hasn't been picked yet. But the point is not that he hasn't been drafted, but that this pick has been squandered on yet another reliever. Hell, if you want to save money, overdraft a solid position player like Kyle Seager, UNC 2B/3B. He went early third round, but he projects to play a solid 2B or 3B while hitting for average. But don't pick a reliever here.

Pick #89: Wade Gaynor, 3B, Western Kentucky Univ.

This pick is a slight overdraft- Gaynor probably would have been available in round 4 tomorrow.. Based on his line, Gaynor has decent power and hits for high average. His plate discipline is pretty good (35 walks to 41 strikeouts), but I'd like to see more advanced scouting reports on him, especially his defense. This pick doesn't really faze me- the Tigers clearly liked him enough to overdraft him, and we do need third basemen in the system. If anything, this is my favorite pick of the first day, pending further information on his defensive abilities.

Overall Concerns

I'm not happy with David Chadd right now. Passing on Matsek/Green/Crow/White/Miller isn't exactly what I was hoping for today, even though Turner is solid, and drafting ANOTHER reliever should have been flat out forbidden by Dombrowski. That being said, I'll wait until tomorrow to call for Chadd's head.

Detroit Tigers Mock Draft

demondeaconsbaseball — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 03:36:45 -0000

Crossposted at Minor League Ball

I guess the first thing I should say is that I'm not David Chadd. That would explain why I picked a position player with my first pick. But even though this might not be the closest thing to what the Tigers would have done had they been drafting, I think that this was a pretty solid draft overall, and I'm very happy with my picks. Let's go through them by round.

Round 1, Pick #9: Grant Green, SS, USC

This was bound to be a controversial pick anyways. But Green's stock plummet didn't really sit well with me. Green hit .374 in 211 plate appearances, with an on base percentage of .435 and a slugging percentage of .569. His 20 to 38 walk to strikeout ratio was pretty good as well. He oozes tools- he's got five-tool potential. I think Kevin Goldstein hit it on the head in one of his recent draft pieces when he quoted a scout that said the following: (subscription required)

"It just made no sense to me," said one scout. "The guy enters the year as the consensus number two pick, and all he does is have a really good season that didn't live up to expectations that were too high in the first place," he added. "If he's suddenly a mid-first-round pick, then we're all really bad at our jobs."

Green is a stellar pick, and he's got a really good chance to be a starting shortstop on a championship team. While I think the pressure of being the best prospect in the Tigers system might get to him, and while I worry that he's been called "low energy" in the past, I see him as a pretty good offensive first shortstop or a very good third baseman.

Round 2, Pick 58: Brody Colvin, RHP, LA HS

Okay, okay. Colvin is an utter violation of all the things I said I stood for. He's a HS pitching prospect with questionable mechanics (he lands hard). He also doesn't have a changeup.

But what he does have is a great fastball sitting at 90-93 that sinks a ton, a pretty good curveball for his age and a ton of pure athletics. He's a choice that David Chadd would have made in a second, and one that really appealed to me especially considering Luke Bailey (Georgia prep catcher) was off the board. I see him with a bit of Porcello like potential provided his mechanics don't mess him up and he develops a changeup.

Round 3, Pick 89: Andrew Doyle, RHP, Oklahoma

Doyle was a junior at the University of Oklahoma. He had an ERA of 3.89 and a walk to strikeout ratio of 21 to 63. BA had him at 87 on their top 100 draft picks, so he's a bit of an appropriate pick for the position. He made the all Big 12 team as well.

Unfortunately, I don't know much about Doyle other than his numbers and his BA rating. He was a bit of a speculative pick on my part. He seems to be a command guy- he's been known for working the inside of the plate against hitters. He's also a pitchability choice- he's probably not going to be a high upside guy, but he's got a high chance of making the bigs in my mind.

Some words in parting

I've said before that I didn't run this draft like I thought the Tigers would. The reason is because that there's plenty of people out there speculating about who the Tigers will pick, but I have no interest in just playing a guessing game. That being said, if anyone has any questions about first or second round guys that the Tigers might be interested in, I'd be more than happy to answer questions about them- I've probably researched them anyways.

I'll probably be posting a little more Tigers draft stuff over here if anyone's interested. Feedback (from things you'd like to see to places where you disagree with me) is always welcome.

Tigers MOD #3

demondeaconsbaseball — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 03:31:01 -0000

"It just made no sense to me," said one scout. "The guy enters the year as the consensus number two pick, and all he does is have a really good season that didn't live up to expectations that were too high in the first place," he added. "If he's suddenly a mid-first-round pick, then we're all really bad at our jobs."

John Sickels Mock Draft

demondeaconsbaseball — Thu, 28 May 2009 23:47:29 -0000

Hello everyone,

I'm the guy running the Detroit Tigers organization in the upcoming John Sickles 2009 Mock First Year Player Draft. I've been a big Tigers fan for my entire life, and this is my first year running a mock draft over at Sickles' website. I'm posting in an attempt to try to get some Tigers fans who know something about prospects to help me out with my MOD (which is posted here). Any help you guys could give me would be appreciated.

Thanks!

Tigers MOD #2

demondeaconsbaseball — Thu, 28 May 2009 23:43:08 -0000

I know everyone's been waiting with baited breath, but here it finally is: the second MOD for the Tigers. So I have my board for the first nine picks pretty settled, and I have a few players I'm considering for my round two and round three picks. So I'll put everything I have below and try to summarize my thoughts at the end.

Just a friendly heads up: I'm not running this draft as what I think David Chadd would do. In reality, expect the Tigers to draft pitchers. Lots of pitchers. Myself, I'm after position players with upside and safer college pitchers. I tend to avoid HS pitchers with high picks, but if forced, I'll go with athletic guys with good makeup and mechanics, but I prefer doing that in later rounds. The lack of prep pitchers in my top 9 is mostly due to injury concerns- this draft is very important to the health of the Tigers, and I'm (perhaps irrationally) concerned with this first rounder getting derailed by injuries.

First Round: Pick #9
1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State: He won't be here, but he's number 1 on my board.

2. Dustin Ackley, OF, UNC: See Strasburg. If he falls though, he's mine.

3. Grant Green, SS, USC: Okay, this is probably an unusual place for Green for a lot of you. But as far as I see it, he's performed very well in college, well enough to put him into the first round. Sure, he's struggled this year. But he's also got a decently high floor- he's probably going to make the Bigs, even if he isn't a star. And there's the upside of Tulowitzki/Longoria somewhere in Green that the Tigers could really use. Bottom line: there's no way I let Grant Green get past me at #9.

4. Aaron Crow, RHP, Indy Ball: To me, Crow is the second best RHP in the draft after Strasburg. I'm not worried about ~~Scott Boras~~ signability concerns, and I'm willing to pay what it takes unlike the Nationals.

5. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri: Sure, he may not have the upside of some of the prep pitchers, but he's a solid choice in this draft and still has a bit of potential to be something beyond a #3.

6. Shelby Miller, RHP, Texas HS: Great fastball, good curveball, but it's his athleticism and (apparently) good mechanics that win me over. He's a tossup with Gibson at #5.

7. Alex White, RHP, UNC: He's been worked pretty hard, but he's still a pretty good pitcher with some upside. It's the apparent overuse at UNC that bugs me about him, and the reason I don’t have him slotted higher.

8. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Indy Ball: The injury problems terrify me- the Tigers can't afford to have this pick implode- but that stuff is just too much to ignore. So I'd be willing to roll the dice on Scheppers.

9. Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento St.: A bit of a reach at #9, and probably interchangeable with Tyler Matsek. To be honest, though, I prefer the college OF to the HS lefty with questionable mechanics.

Second Round: Pick #55

These are just some players I'm considering in no particular order.

-Austin Bailey, C, GA: He's a project, and probably an expensive one at that. But there's major potential here, and if Mike Illich is willing to pay, it's a worthy risk. To be honest, every time I look at my second round board, I see Bailey sitting there and I know it's going to be very hard resisting picking him.

- David Holmberg, LHP, Florida HS: He's a projectable lefty, and probably expensive, but he's a pretty good bet for a HS pitcher. Advanced enough to be put on a decent development schedule, he's a good value in the second provided he can be lured away from Florida.

-Brody Colvin: RHP, Louisiana HS: Boy, I hope he falls to the second. Great arm, iffy command- big risk and big reward.

- Chris Dwyer, LHP, Clemson: Another risk-reward type arm.

Third Round: Pick #89

Some more players I'm considering.

-Chris Dominguez, 3B, Louisville: He's a power hitting 3B with not a lot of other skills. But he sounds a bit like a Joe Crede/Josh Fields type, and for a third round pick, that's not a bad guy to get. He's also cheap, which should help if I go for Green and Bailey or something like that.

-Jake Cowan, RHP, TX JUCO: This one's thanks to Andy Seiler (well, okay, most of this is thanks to Andy, but this player in particular is worth highlighting). A projectable righty in a JUCO program that's still getting results is worth looking at, and Cowan is just that.

-Andrew Doyle, RHP, Oklahoma: He looks to go around #89 on the BA draft sheet, but I can't find out much about the kid. Looks like a decent RHP out of a good college school.

Right, so this is what I'm thinking right now. Help would be appreciated, especially with later round players (I'm still a rookie and am kinda clueless with second and third rounders).

MOD: Tigers

demondeaconsbaseball — Fri, 15 May 2009 04:17:07 -0000

Detroit picks at:

#58

#89

This draft is going to be crucial to the future success of the Tigers. The Major League roster, as it stands, is incredibly old and won't be able to compete beyond 2009. The farm system stands in ruins after being gutted with trades and promotions. So the Tigers have to be able to use this draft to breathe life into the lifeless wasteland that is their farm.

Target number one for me is going to be a bat. While in previous drafts David Chadd has focused on hard throwing arms, the Tigers system has a few more live arms than competent bats. That's not really saying much, but a couple competent bats to replace older players would be a real godsend, considering the rotation is fairly young. Because of that youthful rotation, I'm probably going to target a couple HS pitchers with high ceilings as well. Currently, I'm looking at grabbing 2 bats and an arm. Of course, all these plans are dependent on the players being the best player available- high ceiling prospects are definitely going to be favored and any player that slips due to signability is going to be snapped up at #9.

Here are the players I'm looking at for the #9 pick. Note that if any very good projected player falls (Crow, Scheppers, Ackley), he's mine.

Grant Green, SS, USC: Sure, he's having a down year. Yes, there are makeup questions. But the tools are there, and he fits a major need for Detroit- 3B or SS. Is he a perfect pick? No, not by far. But I have a feeling that the team who drafts him is going to look pretty smart in a few years.

Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville (GA): Tate is the best HS position player in the draft, and while he's got some good tools, he's still a question mark. He's no Cameron Maybin by far, but if the Tigers want upside and are believers in his tools, they'll pick him.

Tyler Matsek, LHP, Capistrano Valley (Calif.): He's a big, hard-throwing lefty, the kind of guy Dombrowski/Chadd just go nuts for. He's got a good package of breaking pitches and could be a HS guy who moves a little faster than most. But he's also a young pitcher, and TINSTAPP definitely applies.

Matt Purke, LHP, Klein (Tx): Another big, hard throwing lefty. More projectable than proven, he still looks to be a very good prep pitcher. Again, though, I'm wary about drafting HS pitchers that aren't flat out dominant.

I still have to draw up a board for picks #58 and #89, and I'm thinking pitcher in the second and bat in the third. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. That, and I may need a deputy.

Porcello's First Start

demondeaconsbaseball — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 18:25:02 -0000

8 hits, 4K's, 1 BB, 2 HR and 3 ER (scratch that, 4ER, Nate Robertson let one in) in 5 innings.

It could have been a lot worse- I'm rather shocked that Leyland left him in the game to start the sixth- had he not, he would have avoided the Lind homer.

While I didn't get to watch the game, I made sure to keep tabs on the Gameday coverage. It looked to me that Porcello was hesitant to use his secondary stuff, but that he was throwing his fastball for strikes and getting a bunch of ground balls (8-3 GO-FO). Definitely wasn't a horrible first start though.

Porcello, Perry in Tigers Rotation and Bullpen

demondeaconsbaseball — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 15:02:57 -0000

According to Dombrowski, anyways.

I'm not sure if this is a good idea, especially in the case of Porcello. Best case scenario is that he turns into a Kershaw-lite this year, but I don't think the Tigers are going to catch that much luck. Is there any chance Porcello puts up an ERA around league average, because it doesn't look like he's the one getting sent down when Bonderman comes back.

Perry, on the other hand, seems to be a relatively polished college reliever. I know his fastball is pretty impressive, but his secondary stuff is (supposedly) lacking pretty badly. I think he could also use some time in AAA.

Honestly, I hope the Tigers aren't screwing up the only good things in our farm system out of some misguided attempt to compete this year- I can only hope that Porcello and Perry go down if it turns out we're 10 GB in May.

So what do you guys think? Are the Tigers risking their only good prospects? Is it worth it?