SB Nation User Blog: demondeaconsbaseball

Detroit Tigers: Draft Day Analysis

demondeaconsbaseball — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 03:28:47 -0000

[Editor's Note: I thought we'd move this over from the FanPosts for the sake of discussion, since demondeaconsbaseball has been following the process so closely for Minor League Ball. We'll have more analysis of the Tigers' draft - I know a couple of people who feel quite differently on Detroit's second-round pick, for instance - from around the blogosphere later on.]

2009 Detroit Tigers Draft: Day 1 Exit Analysis

So since I covered the Tigers in the mock draft over at Sickels' site, I figured that I'd cover them in the real draft as well. Below the jump is my analysis of Day 1 of the 2009 MLB Entry Draft. Updates will be made in the comments as the draft progresses.

Needs

The Tigers have a gutted farm system. We all know that. After trading for Edgar Renteria and Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis last year, the cupboard is bare, especially since we've promoted our consensus #1 prospect to the big leagues (Rick Porcello). What's left isn't exactly inspiring. Our current best prospect is either Casey Crosby or Cale Iorg. Crosby has an electric arm but control issues and an injury history. Iorg has no plate discipline to speak of.

The system also has a few pretty good catching prospects in Alex Avila and Dusty Ryan, both of which will probably see some time in the show as either starters or backups. Second baseman Mike Hollimon also deserves a nod. Note that the system is devoid of position prospects and starting pitchers outside of these three. This is definitely an area where Detroit needs improvement.

What the Tigers have in spades is relief pitching. After spending our top four picks on college relievers last year, it makes sense that we have a bunch of solid players for future Tiger bullpens. Throw in players like Casey Fien, Freddy Dolsi, Clay Rapada and Zach Simons, and we've got relief pitching in spades. This has it's advantages- relievers are a volitile commodity, and it's always nice to be able to stock a bullpen quickly. Unfortunately, it's hard to get much for relief prospects in trades, so it's unlikely that Detroit will flip any of these guys for any major needs.

The Draft

Pick #9: Jacob Turner, RHP, MO HS
I don't like this pick as much as I want to. Turner is a good player- heck of a fastball and very projectable. He's a Chadd guy all right. What I don't like is that his breaking pitches lag behind his fastball, and he's got command issues and delivery flaws. It's really hard to fix delivery problems (see Dontrelle Willis), and any player that keeps fastballs up in the zone is going to be punished eventually.

That being said, Turner really isn't a bad pick on his own merits. What makes this a bad pick is who we passed up on. Tyler Matsek, the lefthanded prep prospect from California, was selected at #11. Aaron Crow, indy ball righthander and former first rounder, was chosen at #12. Grant Green, shortstop from USC was chosen at #13. Alex White, UNC right hander, was chosen at #15. All four of these pitchers, in my mind, would have been a far better choice than Turner.

Why? Matsek was the top lefthander in the draft, Crow was an electric arm last year and is an electric arm this year, Green was the top infielder in the draft (and arguably second highest position player) and Alex White was a dominant starter at UNC, one of the best baseball schools in the nation.

Now, bear in mind that I'm not a scout. I haven't watched a bunch of video of all of these players, and I'm not in the heads of Tigers brass. But I can't for the life of me decide why we passed up on Matsek, Crow, Green or White (or even Shelby Miller, chosen at #19). It's not signability- none of these players are going to be had cheaply, not even Turner. Forgive me for questioning David Chadd, but I'm not one to only concern myself with tall kids with good fastballs. And if I was concerned with tall kids with good fastballs, I would have gone Matsek, Crow, White or Miller.

This pick is forgiveable, but disappointing.

Pick #58: Andrew Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma St.

This pick is unforgiveable. Remember how I wrote all about Detroit and it's depth in relievers? Well, guess what Oliver will be doing for the rest of his career. He's got a very good fastball, and very good fastball command. Combined with a devastating change, he's a great prospect, one that reminds me of Fernando Rodney. The problem is that Oliver has no breaking ball to speak of, dooming him to the bullpen. That's what's so unforgiving here.

For the love of all that is good and holy, take someone like Brody Colvin. Sure, he's got mechanical problems, but he's got a hell of a fastball and a good breaking ball- he may even be better than Turner in the long run. Now, Colvin could be coming in Round 4- he hasn't been picked yet. But the point is not that he hasn't been drafted, but that this pick has been squandered on yet another reliever. Hell, if you want to save money, overdraft a solid position player like Kyle Seager, UNC 2B/3B. He went early third round, but he projects to play a solid 2B or 3B while hitting for average. But don't pick a reliever here.

Pick #89: Wade Gaynor, 3B, Western Kentucky Univ.

This pick is a slight overdraft- Gaynor probably would have been available in round 4 tomorrow.. Based on his line, Gaynor has decent power and hits for high average. His plate discipline is pretty good (35 walks to 41 strikeouts), but I'd like to see more advanced scouting reports on him, especially his defense. This pick doesn't really faze me- the Tigers clearly liked him enough to overdraft him, and we do need third basemen in the system. If anything, this is my favorite pick of the first day, pending further information on his defensive abilities.

Overall Concerns

I'm not happy with David Chadd right now. Passing on Matsek/Green/Crow/White/Miller isn't exactly what I was hoping for today, even though Turner is solid, and drafting ANOTHER reliever should have been flat out forbidden by Dombrowski. That being said, I'll wait until tomorrow to call for Chadd's head.

Detroit Tigers Mock Draft

demondeaconsbaseball — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 03:36:45 -0000

Crossposted at Minor League Ball

I guess the first thing I should say is that I'm not David Chadd. That would explain why I picked a position player with my first pick. But even though this might not be the closest thing to what the Tigers would have done had they been drafting, I think that this was a pretty solid draft overall, and I'm very happy with my picks. Let's go through them by round.

Round 1, Pick #9: Grant Green, SS, USC

This was bound to be a controversial pick anyways. But Green's stock plummet didn't really sit well with me. Green hit .374 in 211 plate appearances, with an on base percentage of .435 and a slugging percentage of .569. His 20 to 38 walk to strikeout ratio was pretty good as well. He oozes tools- he's got five-tool potential. I think Kevin Goldstein hit it on the head in one of his recent draft pieces when he quoted a scout that said the following: (subscription required)

"It just made no sense to me," said one scout. "The guy enters the year as the consensus number two pick, and all he does is have a really good season that didn't live up to expectations that were too high in the first place," he added. "If he's suddenly a mid-first-round pick, then we're all really bad at our jobs."

Green is a stellar pick, and he's got a really good chance to be a starting shortstop on a championship team. While I think the pressure of being the best prospect in the Tigers system might get to him, and while I worry that he's been called "low energy" in the past, I see him as a pretty good offensive first shortstop or a very good third baseman.

Round 2, Pick 58: Brody Colvin, RHP, LA HS

Okay, okay. Colvin is an utter violation of all the things I said I stood for. He's a HS pitching prospect with questionable mechanics (he lands hard). He also doesn't have a changeup.

But what he does have is a great fastball sitting at 90-93 that sinks a ton, a pretty good curveball for his age and a ton of pure athletics. He's a choice that David Chadd would have made in a second, and one that really appealed to me especially considering Luke Bailey (Georgia prep catcher) was off the board. I see him with a bit of Porcello like potential provided his mechanics don't mess him up and he develops a changeup.

Round 3, Pick 89: Andrew Doyle, RHP, Oklahoma

Doyle was a junior at the University of Oklahoma. He had an ERA of 3.89 and a walk to strikeout ratio of 21 to 63. BA had him at 87 on their top 100 draft picks, so he's a bit of an appropriate pick for the position. He made the all Big 12 team as well.

Unfortunately, I don't know much about Doyle other than his numbers and his BA rating. He was a bit of a speculative pick on my part. He seems to be a command guy- he's been known for working the inside of the plate against hitters. He's also a pitchability choice- he's probably not going to be a high upside guy, but he's got a high chance of making the bigs in my mind.

Some words in parting

I've said before that I didn't run this draft like I thought the Tigers would. The reason is because that there's plenty of people out there speculating about who the Tigers will pick, but I have no interest in just playing a guessing game. That being said, if anyone has any questions about first or second round guys that the Tigers might be interested in, I'd be more than happy to answer questions about them- I've probably researched them anyways.

I'll probably be posting a little more Tigers draft stuff over here if anyone's interested. Feedback (from things you'd like to see to places where you disagree with me) is always welcome.

Tigers MOD #3

demondeaconsbaseball — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 03:31:01 -0000

"It just made no sense to me," said one scout. "The guy enters the year as the consensus number two pick, and all he does is have a really good season that didn't live up to expectations that were too high in the first place," he added. "If he's suddenly a mid-first-round pick, then we're all really bad at our jobs."

John Sickels Mock Draft

demondeaconsbaseball — Thu, 28 May 2009 23:47:29 -0000

Hello everyone,

I'm the guy running the Detroit Tigers organization in the upcoming John Sickles 2009 Mock First Year Player Draft. I've been a big Tigers fan for my entire life, and this is my first year running a mock draft over at Sickles' website. I'm posting in an attempt to try to get some Tigers fans who know something about prospects to help me out with my MOD (which is posted here). Any help you guys could give me would be appreciated.

Thanks!

Tigers MOD #2

demondeaconsbaseball — Thu, 28 May 2009 23:43:08 -0000

I know everyone's been waiting with baited breath, but here it finally is: the second MOD for the Tigers. So I have my board for the first nine picks pretty settled, and I have a few players I'm considering for my round two and round three picks. So I'll put everything I have below and try to summarize my thoughts at the end.

Just a friendly heads up: I'm not running this draft as what I think David Chadd would do. In reality, expect the Tigers to draft pitchers. Lots of pitchers. Myself, I'm after position players with upside and safer college pitchers. I tend to avoid HS pitchers with high picks, but if forced, I'll go with athletic guys with good makeup and mechanics, but I prefer doing that in later rounds. The lack of prep pitchers in my top 9 is mostly due to injury concerns- this draft is very important to the health of the Tigers, and I'm (perhaps irrationally) concerned with this first rounder getting derailed by injuries.

First Round: Pick #9
1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State: He won't be here, but he's number 1 on my board.

2. Dustin Ackley, OF, UNC: See Strasburg. If he falls though, he's mine.

3. Grant Green, SS, USC: Okay, this is probably an unusual place for Green for a lot of you. But as far as I see it, he's performed very well in college, well enough to put him into the first round. Sure, he's struggled this year. But he's also got a decently high floor- he's probably going to make the Bigs, even if he isn't a star. And there's the upside of Tulowitzki/Longoria somewhere in Green that the Tigers could really use. Bottom line: there's no way I let Grant Green get past me at #9.

4. Aaron Crow, RHP, Indy Ball: To me, Crow is the second best RHP in the draft after Strasburg. I'm not worried about ~~Scott Boras~~ signability concerns, and I'm willing to pay what it takes unlike the Nationals.

5. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri: Sure, he may not have the upside of some of the prep pitchers, but he's a solid choice in this draft and still has a bit of potential to be something beyond a #3.

6. Shelby Miller, RHP, Texas HS: Great fastball, good curveball, but it's his athleticism and (apparently) good mechanics that win me over. He's a tossup with Gibson at #5.

7. Alex White, RHP, UNC: He's been worked pretty hard, but he's still a pretty good pitcher with some upside. It's the apparent overuse at UNC that bugs me about him, and the reason I don’t have him slotted higher.

8. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Indy Ball: The injury problems terrify me- the Tigers can't afford to have this pick implode- but that stuff is just too much to ignore. So I'd be willing to roll the dice on Scheppers.

9. Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento St.: A bit of a reach at #9, and probably interchangeable with Tyler Matsek. To be honest, though, I prefer the college OF to the HS lefty with questionable mechanics.

Second Round: Pick #55

These are just some players I'm considering in no particular order.

-Austin Bailey, C, GA: He's a project, and probably an expensive one at that. But there's major potential here, and if Mike Illich is willing to pay, it's a worthy risk. To be honest, every time I look at my second round board, I see Bailey sitting there and I know it's going to be very hard resisting picking him.

- David Holmberg, LHP, Florida HS: He's a projectable lefty, and probably expensive, but he's a pretty good bet for a HS pitcher. Advanced enough to be put on a decent development schedule, he's a good value in the second provided he can be lured away from Florida.

-Brody Colvin: RHP, Louisiana HS: Boy, I hope he falls to the second. Great arm, iffy command- big risk and big reward.

- Chris Dwyer, LHP, Clemson: Another risk-reward type arm.

Third Round: Pick #89

Some more players I'm considering.

-Chris Dominguez, 3B, Louisville: He's a power hitting 3B with not a lot of other skills. But he sounds a bit like a Joe Crede/Josh Fields type, and for a third round pick, that's not a bad guy to get. He's also cheap, which should help if I go for Green and Bailey or something like that.

-Jake Cowan, RHP, TX JUCO: This one's thanks to Andy Seiler (well, okay, most of this is thanks to Andy, but this player in particular is worth highlighting). A projectable righty in a JUCO program that's still getting results is worth looking at, and Cowan is just that.

-Andrew Doyle, RHP, Oklahoma: He looks to go around #89 on the BA draft sheet, but I can't find out much about the kid. Looks like a decent RHP out of a good college school.

Right, so this is what I'm thinking right now. Help would be appreciated, especially with later round players (I'm still a rookie and am kinda clueless with second and third rounders).

MOD: Tigers

demondeaconsbaseball — Fri, 15 May 2009 04:17:07 -0000

Detroit picks at:

#58

#89

This draft is going to be crucial to the future success of the Tigers. The Major League roster, as it stands, is incredibly old and won't be able to compete beyond 2009. The farm system stands in ruins after being gutted with trades and promotions. So the Tigers have to be able to use this draft to breathe life into the lifeless wasteland that is their farm.

Target number one for me is going to be a bat. While in previous drafts David Chadd has focused on hard throwing arms, the Tigers system has a few more live arms than competent bats. That's not really saying much, but a couple competent bats to replace older players would be a real godsend, considering the rotation is fairly young. Because of that youthful rotation, I'm probably going to target a couple HS pitchers with high ceilings as well. Currently, I'm looking at grabbing 2 bats and an arm. Of course, all these plans are dependent on the players being the best player available- high ceiling prospects are definitely going to be favored and any player that slips due to signability is going to be snapped up at #9.

Here are the players I'm looking at for the #9 pick. Note that if any very good projected player falls (Crow, Scheppers, Ackley), he's mine.

Grant Green, SS, USC: Sure, he's having a down year. Yes, there are makeup questions. But the tools are there, and he fits a major need for Detroit- 3B or SS. Is he a perfect pick? No, not by far. But I have a feeling that the team who drafts him is going to look pretty smart in a few years.

Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville (GA): Tate is the best HS position player in the draft, and while he's got some good tools, he's still a question mark. He's no Cameron Maybin by far, but if the Tigers want upside and are believers in his tools, they'll pick him.

Tyler Matsek, LHP, Capistrano Valley (Calif.): He's a big, hard-throwing lefty, the kind of guy Dombrowski/Chadd just go nuts for. He's got a good package of breaking pitches and could be a HS guy who moves a little faster than most. But he's also a young pitcher, and TINSTAPP definitely applies.

Matt Purke, LHP, Klein (Tx): Another big, hard throwing lefty. More projectable than proven, he still looks to be a very good prep pitcher. Again, though, I'm wary about drafting HS pitchers that aren't flat out dominant.

I still have to draw up a board for picks #58 and #89, and I'm thinking pitcher in the second and bat in the third. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. That, and I may need a deputy.

Porcello's First Start

demondeaconsbaseball — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 18:25:02 -0000

8 hits, 4K's, 1 BB, 2 HR and 3 ER (scratch that, 4ER, Nate Robertson let one in) in 5 innings.

It could have been a lot worse- I'm rather shocked that Leyland left him in the game to start the sixth- had he not, he would have avoided the Lind homer.

While I didn't get to watch the game, I made sure to keep tabs on the Gameday coverage. It looked to me that Porcello was hesitant to use his secondary stuff, but that he was throwing his fastball for strikes and getting a bunch of ground balls (8-3 GO-FO). Definitely wasn't a horrible first start though.

Porcello, Perry in Tigers Rotation and Bullpen

demondeaconsbaseball — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 15:02:57 -0000

According to Dombrowski, anyways.

I'm not sure if this is a good idea, especially in the case of Porcello. Best case scenario is that he turns into a Kershaw-lite this year, but I don't think the Tigers are going to catch that much luck. Is there any chance Porcello puts up an ERA around league average, because it doesn't look like he's the one getting sent down when Bonderman comes back.

Perry, on the other hand, seems to be a relatively polished college reliever. I know his fastball is pretty impressive, but his secondary stuff is (supposedly) lacking pretty badly. I think he could also use some time in AAA.

Honestly, I hope the Tigers aren't screwing up the only good things in our farm system out of some misguided attempt to compete this year- I can only hope that Porcello and Perry go down if it turns out we're 10 GB in May.

So what do you guys think? Are the Tigers risking their only good prospects? Is it worth it?

BA Detroit Tigers Top 10 Prospects

demondeaconsbaseball — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 17:24:37 -0000

Listed here.

1. Rick Porcello, rhp
2. Ryan Perry, rhp
3. Cale Iorg, ss
4. Casey Crosby, lhp
5. Jeff Larish, 1b/3b
6. Wilkin Ramirez, of
7. Scott Sizemore, 2b
8. Cody Satterwhite, rhp
9. Dusty Ryan, c
10. Guillermo Moscoso, rhp It's not the best system in the majors, but it's definitely improving. Whether that's a product of a solid draft, or because there was nowhere to go but up, I don't know. But Porcello/Perry/Iorg is a much better top 3 than quite a few systems (yeah, I know that still doesn't say a lot...)..

No-No for Porcello

demondeaconsbaseball — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 03:24:53 -0000

A bit misleading of a title, I will admit. Rick Porcello contributed to a seven inning no hitter against the St. Lucie Mets.

His line:

5.0	0	1	1	2	1	0	2.91

5.0

2.91

Contributing to the no hitter were 2008 draftees Rob Weinhardt (10th rd) with 2 strikeouts and Cody Satterwhite (2nd round) with 1 strikeout. Both Weinhardt and Satterwhite pitched a scoreless inning.

Here's the box if anyone's interested.

Is this a sign that the Tigers are doing well in the quest to rebuild their farm system?