SB Nation User Blog: demondeaconsbaseball

Nontender List

demondeaconsbaseball — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:43:26 -0000

Nontender List

Some interesting names on this list for the rotation or DH spot. Chad Gaudin? Chien Ming Wang? Jack Cust? Think it would be worth signing any of these guys?

Tigers still in the running for Bradley

demondeaconsbaseball — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 08:21:24 -0000

Tigers still in the running for Bradley

OH MY GOD OH MY GOD OH MY GOD.

I may be the only one awake, but I'm hyperventilating. WE'RE A POSSIBILITY.

Seay, Larish, Ryan up on the block

demondeaconsbaseball — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 01:44:59 -0000

Seay, Larish, Ryan up on the block

Twitter from Morosi. Wonder what we can get.

Bradley to a mystery team?

demondeaconsbaseball — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 22:28:12 -0000

Bradley to a mystery team?

If it's the Tigers, I will make Milton Bradley my Tiger.

TIGERS RESIGN EVERETT!!!

demondeaconsbaseball — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 22:14:39 -0000

Fangraphs Top 10 Tigers Prospects

demondeaconsbaseball — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:51:19 -0000

Fangraphs Top 10 Tigers Prospects

Hooray! More prospect information.

MLBTR: Regarding a firesale

demondeaconsbaseball — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:21:49 -0000

MLBTR: Regarding a firesale

Per Gammons- apparently there's a Tigers source who says that Mr. I would never allow a fire sale. Lets hope he's right.

2010 Detroit Tigers: An Exercise in Roster Building

demondeaconsbaseball — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 01:34:55 -0000

[Editor's Note: Promoted from the FanPosts, for the sake of some off-day discussion.]

So, to get our minds off of Twins-hate season, I figured that I would write something about the 2010 Tigers roster to change the subject. Everyone around here knows that I've been of the opinion that we should sell the role players to make the team better for 2011, but I've been thinking, and I believe that we have a shot to contend next year provided DD makes the right deals. The Royals and Indians will still suck, and the Twins and White Sox will have to take a lot of risks, so there is an opening as well. So, I've decided to reconstruct the roster to contend in 2010. More after the jump.

I devised a set of rules to begin with when playing with the roster. They follow.

1. The primary goal is to develop a winner. Cutting payroll is nice, but Mr. Ilitch wants a winner, and it doesn't matter what the payroll is- if the Tigers lose, we lose more money than if the Tigers win and we jack payroll by 20 MM. Why? Nobody wants to spend on a loser.

2. If we can make moves to cut payroll, we do.

3. We use every asset we have, but we do not trade prospects. The goal is to contend next year, but not at the expense of building a dynasty for 2011.

4. Sacrifices must be made. Team favorites will go in favor of prospects and free agent signings.

5. All free agent signings must be short term and cheap- I'm looking to a lot of role players to complement the core of Cabrera/Verlander/Jackson/Granderson.

6. Defense is still important, but we've also got to score more runs. So we are willing to sacrifice some defense for offense, but not much.

7. NEVER BUY BULLPEN PITCHERS. We've got enough in-house to solve all our relief problems now that DD and David Chadd spent an entire draft hoarding them. Plus, relief pitchers are volatile as is.

Expected roster for the 2010 Detroit Tigers

C: Gerald Laird (arb eligible)

1B: Miguel Cabrera ($20MM)

2B: <empty>

3B: Brandon Inge ($6.6MM)

SS: <empty>

LF: Carlos Guillen ($13MM)

CF: Curtis Granderson ($5.5MM)

RF: Magglio Ordonez ($18MM)

DH: Marcus Thames (arb eligible)

BN: Alex Avila ($400K)

BN: Ramon Santiago (arb eligible)

BN: Clete Thomas ($400K)

BN: Ryan Raburn ($400K)

SP: Justin Verlander(arb eligible)

SP: Edwin Jackson (arb eligible)

SP: Rick Porcello (1.025MM)

SP: Nate Robertson ($10MM)

SP: Jeremy Bonderman ($12.5MM)

RP: Bobby Seay (arb eligible)

RP: Fu-Ti Ni ($400K)

RP: Zach Miner ($400K)

RP: Ryan Perry ($400K)

RP: Casey Fien ($400K)

RP: Dontrelle Willis ($12MM)

RP: Armando Galarraga ($400K)

Total Salary: $101.825MM (not including arbitration for Laird, Thames, Santiago, Verlander, Jackson, Seay)

*league minimum is roughly $400K

Moves:

Resign Ramon Santiago at 1yr, 950K

Razor Ramon is a great bench player who deserves to stick around.

Resign Bobby Seay at 2yr, 3MM

Ladies and gentlemen, the likely closer for the 2010 Detroit Tigers. A reliable relief pitcher who doesn't always give us heart attacks. Not Joe Nathan, but cheap and reliable.

Trade Marcus Thames for prospects

Yes, this is the first major sacrifice. But Thames is getting very expensive very quickly, and this is an easy way to save between $2-3MM.

Trade Gerald Laird (arb eligible) for prospects, Alex Avila ($400K) becomes starting C, Dusty Ryan ($400K) becomes reserve C

Another (probably) controversial move- but Laird is arbitration eligible and likely making more than $3MM next year. While stellar defensively, he's been worth the same as Avila (.9 WAR) in 300 more plate appearances. Selling him high to a team looking for a good defensive catcher could net us something nifty and could save us some cash. Plus, Dusty Ryan makes a cheap backup.

Sign Justin Verlander at 5yr, 55MM

Our first big move is locking up Verlander at a Greinke comparable contract (this one is $4MM for 2010, $6MM for 2011 and $15MM for 2012-2014). Locking up the ace is a good move, and this should save us some money in the long term while giving us another anchor to build around.

Sign Edwin Jackson at 5yr, 48.5MM

Another Greinke-style contract, Jackson takes 3MM in 2010, 5MM in 2011 and 13.5MM in 2012-2014. Lock up another building block for our future dynasty.

Sign Rick Ankiel at 1yr, 5MM

Yes, his bat's been crap. But he's got a great glove and an even better arm and that bat has upside. This is a risky move, but I think Ankiel might be willing to do it in order to regain some value. If this doesn't work out, the Tigers can always call up either Wilkin Ramirez or Ryan Streiby to play some corner OF.

Resign Adam Everett at 2yr, 3MM

Opie's been a great shortstop in the field, and I'm willing to make the sacrifice in offense here. Plus he deserves a 2 year deal- this will make sure he resigns with us.

Sign Carl Pavano to a 1yr, 2MM contract with 5MM in incentives

He's been an absolute pain for us to face. What better way to avoid facing him? Pavano is a quality innings-eating option (worth 3.5 WAR this year) and he'd fit in wonderfully in the back of our rotation.

Trade Dontrelle Willis ($12MM) and Carlos Guillen ($13MM) to the Cubs for Milton Bradley ($9MM 2010, $12MM 2011)

This move sounds absolutely nuts, and I know I'm going to get slammed for it. Sure, Bradley is a clubhouse cancer. Sure he's a health risk. But I'm willing to bet that he'll shut up on a contender. Plus he's hitting .257/.378/.397- that OBP would play well at leadoff. And we can play Ordonez and Bradley at DH/LF so they both stay healthy. We also jettison Willis, who the Cubs can rehab, and say goodbye to Guillen, who is still a competent hitter that the Cubbies can slide in RF or LF. I'd be willing to throw in up to $13MM in cash to get this deal done (Guillen's 2011 salary) as well, but I think the Cubs are desperate and that they'd take this if offered. If not, we could always just deal them Willis and dump Guillen as well.

Trade Zach Miner (arb eligible) for prospects.

This is a great idea- deal the starter to someone who needs a starter- and it also saves us on what Miner would cost in arbitration.

Offer Placido Polanco arbitration, let him walk. Replace with Scott Sizemore

Yes, everyone loves Polly. Yes, his glove is great. Yes, he makes a lot of contact. But he's an expensive player who is going to want to get paid like an expert glovesman (which he is) and an above average bat (which he is not). Some team will hand him a nice contract this winter, but we should not be that team, especially when we have the solid and cheap Scott Sizemore down on the farm. An upgrade with the bat (less contact, but good on base ability and better power) and a slight downgrade with the glove (Sizemore's slightly above average), this is a good lateral move that saves Detroit oodles of bucks next year.

Move Jeremy Bonderman to the bullpen

Remember when I called Bobby Seay the closer of the future? I may have lied. Bondo may never regain all his stuff and he may never be able to start again. But if he gets his slider back, he may be a decent shutdown closer for the Tigers.

Prepare to have a revolving door in the bullpen

Not a move in and of itself, but we have so many good relief prospects we can afford to mix and match beyond the big four (Seay, Bondo, Ni, Perry). To start out with, I recommend Armando Galarraga taking Miner's old job, Casey Fien grabbing a role in the 'pen and Alfredo Figaro working in mop-up relief.

The DemonDeaconsBaseball proposed 2010 Detroit Tigers Roster

C: Alex Avila ($400K)

1B: Miguel Cabrera ($20MM)

2B: Scott Sizemore ($400K)

3B: Brandon Inge ($6.6MM)

SS: Adam Everett ($1.5MM)

LF: Magglio Ordonez ($18MM)

CF: Curtis Granderson ($5.5MM)

RF: Rick Ankiel ($5MM)

DH: Milton Bradley ($9MM)

BN: Dusty Ryan ($400K)

BN: Ramon Santiago ($950K)

BN: Clete Thomas ($400K)

BN: Ryan Raburn ($400K)

SP: Justin Verlander ($4MM)

SP: Edwin Jackson ($3MM)

SP: Rick Porcello (1.025MM)

SP: Nate Robertson ($10MM)

SP: Carl Pavano ($7MM)

CL: Bobby Seay ($1.5MM)

SU: Jeremy Bonderman ($12.5MM)

SU: Ryan Perry ($400K)

LOOGY: Fu-Ti Ni ($400K)

MU: Casey Fien ($400K)

MU: Alfredo Figaro ($400K)

MU: Armando Galarraga ($400K)

Total Salary: $109.575MM (down from 115.085MM in 2009)

Flame away!

Tigers Top 10 Prospects- Midseason Update

demondeaconsbaseball — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 02:19:57 -0000

[Editor's Note: Promoted from the FanPosts, for the sake of discussion. I'm not sure enough people have gotten to read this.]

Since I'm the quasi-prospect guru here on BYB, I figured that I should do something content-related on the farm system. Now, I'm no Matt Wallace, but I thought a look at the top 10 prospects in the Tigers farm system might be worth doing. After all, most of the preseason prospect rankings are moot at this point (I saw somebody in the Tiger blogosphere using a C+ ranking for Casey Crosby?!?!?) and an updated list midseason makes sense. Alas, I was lazy then (and had draft coverage to worry about). Plus, it makes sense to wait until the trade deadline so you make sure you don't write an extended piece up on a prospect that's being sent to the Mariners (or anyone else for that matter).

As for what I'm looking for in top prospects - that's simple. First, I favor players at higher levels over young, toolsy types. Plate discipline, contact ability and power are the three things I'm looking at for position prospects. Of those three, plate discipline is far and away the most important. I'll probably favor guys who can get on base over the uber-toolsy young prospects with little plate discipline. For pitchers, I'm looking for strikeout rate, walk rate and homer rate. I also heavily favor starters over relievers. An additional note- my list will not include either Rick Porcello or Ryan Perry - both of those guys would easily be #1 and #3 in the system, but since everyone knows who they are, what's the point, right? On with the show!

1. Casey Crosby, LHP, West Michigan Whitecaps, 20 years old

9-4, 2.64 ERA, 96.2 IP, 10.43 K/9, 4.10 BB/9, .28 HR/9

It's no secret I love Casey Crosby, so much that I shouted down pretty much every trade rumor regarding him before the deadline. Why am I such a fanboy? Take a look at that K rate- in his first full year of pro baseball, Crosby has dominated A ball hitters, and that strikeout rate is proof. His secondary stuff (curve and change) have a ways to come, and he's got an injury history (Tommy John in his past), but he can get it up to 96 or 97. Combine that with a potential second plus pitch in his change, and he's enough to make a prospect geek like me start drooling.

2. Alex Avila, C, Erie Seawolves (now the Detroit Tigers), 21 years old

387 PA, .264/.365/.450, 12 HR, 52 BB, 77 K

A catcher that hits for a good amount of power with decent contact skills and good plate discipline? What's not to like? As Tigers fans are now finding out, Alex Avila is the real deal as far as prospects go. Defensively he could use some work, but he's made drastic improvements at AA and for a kid that's been catching for 2 years now, he's doing just fine.

3. Wilkin Ramirez, Corner OF, Toledo Mud Hens, 23 years old

403 PA, .271/.347/.450, 13 HR, 39 BB, 121 K

He's a strikeout machine. That's the first thing that comes up when I think Wilkin Ramirez. He K's far too much to be anything other than a 4th OF in the majors right now. But there's definitely something there- he's loaded with tools, with excellent speed, a very good power stroke and decent enough contact rates. He just needs to get some strike zone judgment- if there's a potential impact player in this system besides Crosby, Ramirez just may be it.

4. Ryan Strieby, 1B/LF, Erie Seawolves, 23

319 PA, .305/.421/.561, 17 HR, 48 BB, 78 K

He's gonna hit. While Strieby is on the DL with wrist problems, and while wrist problems are no laughing matter, I still have faith in this kid. If those wrist woes clear up, the Tigers have a monster on their hands. Strieby improved his K/BB rate this year dramatically- he's walked two more times in 150 less plate appearances (at a higher level, too). He's had power- 29 HR last year, 17 this year. He can hit for a decent average. Scouts love his stick. His defense, though… well, let's say he'd be great as a DH. If Streiby could play left field, it would be a minor miracle (and he was trying it out before his injury). If not, the Tigers will probably DH the kid. I'll repeat- he's gonna hit.

5. Scott Sizemore, 2B, Erie SeaWolves/Toledo Mud Hens, 24 years old

Erie: 229 PA, .307/.432/.535, 9 HR, 35 BB, 46 K

Toledo: 209 PA, .308/.382/.467, 5 HR, 19 BB, 30 K

Sizemore is the heir apparent to the second base job in Detroit. With the numbers this kid puts up, Detroit is probably going to let Placido Polanco go ahead and walk. He's got an incredibly good bat for the second base position- he'll be above league average, with gap power, decent contact rates, good discipline and an okay glove- nothing spectacular, but he's going to make a good living in the major leagues.

6. Alfredo Figaro, RHP, Erie Seawolves, 24 years old

5-2, 4.10 ERA, 68 IP, 7.81 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 1.06 K/9

The Tigers system starts getting a whole lot fuzzier after #5. I thought I'd include Alfredo Figaro here because… well, he's a solid arm, at least. His numbers aren't incredibly flashy, but he is what he is- a solid SP prospect in a system with little to no depth. Figaro has a good sinking fastball that he throws in the low 90's with what Baseball Prospectus 2009 calls a "promising curve and change". His stuff isn't phenomenal, but he made it through AA with a decent enough strikeout rate and a low walk rate. Figaro has a definite chance to be a #3 or a #4 starter if everything breaks right. Of course, he has to get healthy first.

7. Cale Iorg, SS, Erie Seawolves, 23 years old

421 PA, .221/.270/.358, 11 HR, 24 BB, 119 K

Like I said, this system thins out quick. Iorg's got tools, but not much else. What Iorg certainly does not have is plate discipline, and that impairs his contact ability and power. He's got a good power stroke… when he can get the bat on the ball. But until Iorg learns to take pitches, he's hosed. I will end with a happy comment though- Iorg has really turned his defense around- he now rates as a plus defensive player with a solid arm. So this season hasn't been a total washout.

8. Casey Fien, RHP, Toledo Mud Hens, 25 years old

2-1, 9 SV, 3.56 ERA, 48 IP, 9.75 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, .75 HR/9

For the life of me I don't understand why Fien isn't up. He's got a great K rate, a great walk rate, a good home run rate. He's got great control, two solid pitches (fastball/slider, I believe, though he does have a change) and still isn't in the major league bullpen. Fien is what he his- a 7th or 8th inning arm, not a shutdown guy, but a good guy to have around nonetheless.

9. Zach Simons, RHP, Erie Seawolves, 24 years old

1-1, 2.44 ERA, 48 IP, 9.00 K/9, 3.94 BB/9, .19 HR/9

This is where the system really thins out. The 9th and 10th slots could have any number of prospects, but I'm rather fond of Simons, who was obtained from the Colorado Rockies for Jason Grilli. Simons has a curve and fastball that both have plus potential, and has put up a really good strikeout rate and HR rate in AA. It would be nice if he could walk a few less batters, but he's still a decent bullpen prospect in the long term. Who knows, being traded for Simons could be the best thing that Jason Grilli has ever done for the Tigers.

10. Tyler Stohr, RHP, West Michigan Whitecaps, 22 years old

3-3, 2.44 ERA, 48 IP, 7.68 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, .19 HR/9

The tenth spot could have realistically gone to any number of players. I considered a slew of bullpen arms, a couple outfielders, a middle infielder and a catcher for this slot (they're my honorable mentions, if you're interested). But Stohr is a solid arm in a system desperate for prospects. He throws a fastball that sits between 92 and 94 and touches 96. His slider flashes plus occasionally, and he's got decent control.

Honorable Mentions:

RHP Cody Satterwhite: Big righty with command issues but good stuff.

OF Casper Wells: Lots of power, lots of speed, good defender, bad discipline.

RHP Brett Jacobson: Big righty with good stuff- decent bullpen arm

OF Andy Dirks: Fast, good on base skills, possible table setter or 4th OF

2B Brandon Douglas: Projects as a bench guy, good hitter but old for level

RHP Scott Green: Good power arm- stop me if you've heard this before…

C Dusty Ryan: He's still got potential as a good glove with power. Perhaps a future backup.

Detroit Tigers: Draft Day Analysis

demondeaconsbaseball — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 03:28:47 -0000

[Editor's Note: I thought we'd move this over from the FanPosts for the sake of discussion, since demondeaconsbaseball has been following the process so closely for Minor League Ball. We'll have more analysis of the Tigers' draft - I know a couple of people who feel quite differently on Detroit's second-round pick, for instance - from around the blogosphere later on.]

2009 Detroit Tigers Draft: Day 1 Exit Analysis

So since I covered the Tigers in the mock draft over at Sickels' site, I figured that I'd cover them in the real draft as well. Below the jump is my analysis of Day 1 of the 2009 MLB Entry Draft. Updates will be made in the comments as the draft progresses.

Needs

The Tigers have a gutted farm system. We all know that. After trading for Edgar Renteria and Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis last year, the cupboard is bare, especially since we've promoted our consensus #1 prospect to the big leagues (Rick Porcello). What's left isn't exactly inspiring. Our current best prospect is either Casey Crosby or Cale Iorg. Crosby has an electric arm but control issues and an injury history. Iorg has no plate discipline to speak of.

The system also has a few pretty good catching prospects in Alex Avila and Dusty Ryan, both of which will probably see some time in the show as either starters or backups. Second baseman Mike Hollimon also deserves a nod. Note that the system is devoid of position prospects and starting pitchers outside of these three. This is definitely an area where Detroit needs improvement.

What the Tigers have in spades is relief pitching. After spending our top four picks on college relievers last year, it makes sense that we have a bunch of solid players for future Tiger bullpens. Throw in players like Casey Fien, Freddy Dolsi, Clay Rapada and Zach Simons, and we've got relief pitching in spades. This has it's advantages- relievers are a volitile commodity, and it's always nice to be able to stock a bullpen quickly. Unfortunately, it's hard to get much for relief prospects in trades, so it's unlikely that Detroit will flip any of these guys for any major needs.

The Draft

Pick #9: Jacob Turner, RHP, MO HS
I don't like this pick as much as I want to. Turner is a good player- heck of a fastball and very projectable. He's a Chadd guy all right. What I don't like is that his breaking pitches lag behind his fastball, and he's got command issues and delivery flaws. It's really hard to fix delivery problems (see Dontrelle Willis), and any player that keeps fastballs up in the zone is going to be punished eventually.

That being said, Turner really isn't a bad pick on his own merits. What makes this a bad pick is who we passed up on. Tyler Matsek, the lefthanded prep prospect from California, was selected at #11. Aaron Crow, indy ball righthander and former first rounder, was chosen at #12. Grant Green, shortstop from USC was chosen at #13. Alex White, UNC right hander, was chosen at #15. All four of these pitchers, in my mind, would have been a far better choice than Turner.

Why? Matsek was the top lefthander in the draft, Crow was an electric arm last year and is an electric arm this year, Green was the top infielder in the draft (and arguably second highest position player) and Alex White was a dominant starter at UNC, one of the best baseball schools in the nation.

Now, bear in mind that I'm not a scout. I haven't watched a bunch of video of all of these players, and I'm not in the heads of Tigers brass. But I can't for the life of me decide why we passed up on Matsek, Crow, Green or White (or even Shelby Miller, chosen at #19). It's not signability- none of these players are going to be had cheaply, not even Turner. Forgive me for questioning David Chadd, but I'm not one to only concern myself with tall kids with good fastballs. And if I was concerned with tall kids with good fastballs, I would have gone Matsek, Crow, White or Miller.

This pick is forgiveable, but disappointing.

Pick #58: Andrew Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma St.

This pick is unforgiveable. Remember how I wrote all about Detroit and it's depth in relievers? Well, guess what Oliver will be doing for the rest of his career. He's got a very good fastball, and very good fastball command. Combined with a devastating change, he's a great prospect, one that reminds me of Fernando Rodney. The problem is that Oliver has no breaking ball to speak of, dooming him to the bullpen. That's what's so unforgiving here.

For the love of all that is good and holy, take someone like Brody Colvin. Sure, he's got mechanical problems, but he's got a hell of a fastball and a good breaking ball- he may even be better than Turner in the long run. Now, Colvin could be coming in Round 4- he hasn't been picked yet. But the point is not that he hasn't been drafted, but that this pick has been squandered on yet another reliever. Hell, if you want to save money, overdraft a solid position player like Kyle Seager, UNC 2B/3B. He went early third round, but he projects to play a solid 2B or 3B while hitting for average. But don't pick a reliever here.

Pick #89: Wade Gaynor, 3B, Western Kentucky Univ.

This pick is a slight overdraft- Gaynor probably would have been available in round 4 tomorrow.. Based on his line, Gaynor has decent power and hits for high average. His plate discipline is pretty good (35 walks to 41 strikeouts), but I'd like to see more advanced scouting reports on him, especially his defense. This pick doesn't really faze me- the Tigers clearly liked him enough to overdraft him, and we do need third basemen in the system. If anything, this is my favorite pick of the first day, pending further information on his defensive abilities.

Overall Concerns

I'm not happy with David Chadd right now. Passing on Matsek/Green/Crow/White/Miller isn't exactly what I was hoping for today, even though Turner is solid, and drafting ANOTHER reliever should have been flat out forbidden by Dombrowski. That being said, I'll wait until tomorrow to call for Chadd's head.