I used to love this place and then it was ruined by the TCA

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I used to love this place and then it was ruined by TCA

words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words,

I used to love this place and then it was ruined by the TCA

words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words,

I used to love this place and then it was ruined by the TCA

words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words, words,

Some people around have recently taken one too many deep whiffs of ether or let their dentist leave the nitrous tap open just a weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee bit too long and insist on sunshine pumping their delirium on the rest of us who would prefer to have some semblance of discerning reality from the Santas riding ponies in our mind .  That being said, I would like to ask those who do not agree with the projections which say that the A's aren't very good if there has ever been a team with a health question at 19 of the 25 projected active roster spots that has made the playoffs?  Lets look at the medicals:

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Recently, there has been some discussion about the Angels off season activity, including their quixotic signing of Scott Downs as well as predicting what they will do next. I wanted to break down the financial situation of the Angels and illustrate why them signing Cliff Lee is both financially prudent and a the greatest possible competitive upgrade.

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Mikev just had all of his dreams confirmed when Susan Slusser reported that Geren might move Barton to 3b seconds ago.  I really hope this works.  Also who would we acquire to play 1b?  Is this a sign that Carter might not have hands of stone or Doolittle might be able to walk?  Derek Lee or Carlos Pena would be good bounce back options. Thoughts?

susanslusser Susan Slusser 

Geren confirms Coco Crisp leadoff hitter over DeJesus. Barton might slide to third. #Athletics

Earlier this month I spent a week in Arizona and got a chance to catch some Arizona Fall League action.  For those of you who don't know what that is, that AFL is a prospect development league where MLB teams send a handful of their best prospects in the high minors (AA and AAA) to play against top competition and get in some extra work.  I went mostly because I love prospects but also because I specifically wanted to check out two things: Michael Taylor's sudden hitting demise this year and Grant Green's shoddy defensive work.  I saw enough of Taylor to think I understand what happened to him, though Green didn't play the games I saw.  In addition to scouting the A's guys, I still looked for anyone outstanding that might be good trade bait.  In my AFL scouting report, I noted some of those players.  When the A's traded Rajai Davis for two relievers, the name Farquhar didn't immediately ring a bell, but when I heard his motion described, I knew I had seen him pitch November 8th, with the Peoria Javelinas against the Desert Dogs (the A's affiliated team in the AFL).

This is my report on Danny Farquhar.  Before reading it you should know that I AM NOT A SCOUT and these observations are made in the most impossibly small 1 game sample size.  I have no expertise in the visual heuristic evaluation of baseball players.  I don't even know if I have any skills.  I don't trust these observations and you probably shouldn't either.  Go look at the numbers, they tell a much more true story of performance and aptitude.  Im not even sure that if I was a scout I should be trusted.  That being said I was able to sit behind some scouts and get a look at some of the numbers on their guns as well as hear what they had to say. 

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My girlfriend goes to ASU and Im on vacation visiting her so when she has class I took the light rail to two buses (a journey of three hours and fifteen minutes each way) to get from Tempe to the home of the Peoria Javelinas to watch some A's and other prospect play Arizona Fall League Baseball.

This is my report.  Before reading it you should know that I AM NOT A SCOUT.  I have no expertise in the visual heuristic evaluation of baseball players.  I don't even know if I have any skills.  I don't trust these observations and you probably shouldn't either.  Go look at the numbers, they tell a much more true story of performance and aptitude.  Im not even sure that if I was a scout I should be trusted.  That being said I was able to sit behind some scouts and get a look at some of the numbers.

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Evil Don here, on behalf of my better half. Today our guest-host is DFA, who serves up a scrumptious sampling of under-performing players A's should look into. With danmerqury taking a much-deserved break, Good Don will be here this afternoon in the role of pinch-threader as the A's begin a three-game series with the Cleveland Indians. 4:05 start time.  Until then, enjoy DFA's fine work. And speaking of work, well, yeah. Sigh.

There has been much hubbub about the A's inability to sign their premium free agent targets over the last two off-seasons. The Coli sucks blah blah blah, no one wants to play in front of 17 and 1/2 people blah blah blah, you'll get stabbed in Oakland blah blah blah.  I don't really believe any of it since information available to the public shows that the A's have offered all of 1 free agent the most money before he signed with another team (Scutaro) and Beane/Wolfe/Fisher have an incentive to put out when a free agent chooses somewhere else to further the San Jose is necessary meme (which I don't buy either). 

That being said, this post, the first in a series, operates under the idea that Carl Crawford and Jason Werth want absolutely nothing to do with the A's and even if you backed up a Brinkley or gave them the keys to the San Francisco Mint they wouldn't care (yes I know the SF Mint doesn't actually produce money anymore but you get the point).  Well what are the A's to do if that's the case?  Their rotation is potentially dominant next year if Anderson stays healthy, Cahill improves from average to above average, Gio does what hes been doing or breaks out into a true ace by lowering his walk/combustion rate, Braden pitches like a strong #3 starter, and Mazzaro becomes the best 5th starter in baseball as a league average innings eater.  The A's position players as a whole suck eggs so we are going to focus on players that can or should be acquired because their contracts suck and the A's rather than their current employer are in a superior position to pay for the vast sums they once convinced a unscrupulous GM to fork over.

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Im on leave from work this week so Im hoping to get 3 fanposts on potential offseason moves as well as my mileage for work completed in addition to everything else.  These are some important links if you want to understand how teams are run, everyone should read them.

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Recently, Nico and Flashfire have gone back to the lets take pot shots at DFA and stats across the blog modus operandi that prevailed around here circa early 2009.  In the process, Nico decided to dredge up the Eveland/Braden debate from the beginning of last year.  I thought it was a pretty cheap shot since it is a logical fallacy to say that because you were wrong once that you must be wrong again. Well that made me do some digging back in the archives to see what I could find and I found a lot of what I was looking for: A less full throated defense of Eveland than I remember and plenty of completely wrong predictions that Crosby would break out, Chavez would finally be health, and Giambi could hit .300 on his return from Nico before even starting in on Flashfire that I could make into this

via seattlebuzz

and a comeback of nuclear proportions.  While writing one of those sadistic fanposts that you really should delete, I started to think about times my analysis had been as wrong as Nico's, which lead to a far more productive line of thinking.

I thought Aki Iwamura would be a good free agent target ----- OOOPS -1.1 WAR and sent down

I said that Wallace wouldn't be traded to the A's

I have many times supported the position that Eveland could be a ML SP even said he could be a number 3

And those are just from my fanposts and the initial Eveland argument that got me started down this path.   But baseball is a magical game that has the tendency to do this to all of us and humbling people that speak in absolutes. While I have certainly had my hits, like suggesting that we offer Beltre a 4/$32m deal last offseason, these failings have taught me much.  I have learned to be less cavalier with small sample sizes, more suspect of luck either way in HR/FP%, to regress defensive statistics more aggressively to the mean and even more than that with injured players.

It is a terrible analyst who does not examine their failings and try to learn from them. What has been your biggest miss and what did you learn from it?

One of my main frustrations with the A's recently is the poor personnel moves that they have made and how they have repeatedly left the A's in lose lose propositions.   It has gotten to the point that I think that a change in the GM's office may be necessary to right the ship.  This is the first in a series of post will take a more theoretical than practical look at the way the A's have made acquisitions, extensions, and decisions surrounding trades and how that affects the position the A's are in right now: hurt, lacking in talent, and unable to trade anyone for quality prospects at the same time  failing to pilot the team towards a playoff birth or having the necessary prospects on the farm to present either a bright future or provide the ability to trade for one.  Part 1 was about reclamation projects and part 2 is about extensions.

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EMPEROR EDIT: Happy Monday to all!  I was going to compose a 10,000 word screed calling for Bob "Starin'" Geren to be placed in Stocks of Humiliation in Jack London Square for the duration of the All-Star Break -- and how this would statistically provide the A's with at least +1.7 WAR by doing so -- but we won the last two games and actually played like a team worthy of the name "Athletics" so I refrained, choosing instead to promote this ridiculously insightful and well-articulated post (does he ever come up with one that ain't?) by my friend DFA. This is his reward for listening to me rant on the phone about the hidden history of Oakland the other afternoon to a point where he may have wanted to turn his lunch break into a Festival of Bourbon and Darvocet from my legendary hot-air aggrandizements.  Enjoy the post (I'm imagining there is a Part 2 of this coming at some point this week) and the break, and say a "Huzzah!" for 67MARQUEZ (aka The Don of Dons), who is alleged to be interviewing a certain Reginald Martinez Jackson today for a post coming your way this Thursday, yeah!

One of my main frustrations with the A's recently is the poor personnel moves that they have made and how they have repeatedly left the A's in lose lose propositions.   It has gotten to the point that I think that a change in the GM's office may be necessary to right the ship.  This is the first in a series of post will take a more theoretical than practical look at the way the A's have made acquisitions, extensions, and decisions surrounding trades and how that affects the position the A's are in right now: hurt, lacking in talent, and unable to trade anyone for quality prospects at the same time  failing to pilot the team towards a playoff birth or having the necessary prospects on the farm to present either a bright future or provide the ability to trade for one.  Part 1 is about reclamation projects.

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HEY THERE FRIENDS! The other thread has filled up with comments, so a new one, timed to the start of the actual selections at 3 PM, seemed appropriate.

So let's make DFA's latest Druthers post the actual as-it-happens thread for comments about the picks, ok? I'll be back in a few hours with tonight's pivotal series opener vs. the Slegtastic Anaheimers =)

-- e.n.

I know I had promised to do more of these, and I haven't. Even my plan for doing more today was derailed when I crashed my bike this morning.  But longer term Ive been growing less interested in AN for a while since the decline of in-depth posts about statistics, trades, prospects, and rosterbation and the generally less intellectual environment that has emerged.  Im learning a lot less than I use to when I first started, both when others were posting and debates in the comments have been less fulfilling.  People being upset about my level of political discussion has also cut off an angle of enjoyment that this site use to serve.  The community aspect of the site is always great  and I have made some great friends, but I find that a lot of the newer memes don't make much sense and for me that part of things has always been secondary.  That coupled with my personal life being more stable and having more requirements on my time than when I was pumping out three thousand work fanposts regularly has led me to the conclusion that after the draft (which I feel a responsibility for covering over the next couple of days) Im going to take an AN break.

That being said here is my draft board:

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Dylan Covey was picked in the poll to be the next draft prospect.  Before I started to read the scouting reports about Covey I wasn't that impressed, even though I had seen reports of Billy Beane personally going to scout his starts.  After getting a more in dept look at Dylan Covey, he has risen on my personal board.  Lets look at what he has to offer.

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So basically work decided to not really give me a hard time between now and the draft.  Im not really sure why but  it will give me the opportunity to do many more players than if I was working my usual 60 hr weeks.  Please vote in the poll for the player you would like to see a Draft Druthers (TM) post on. Look at the list of players below and let me know who you want more info on by voting in the poll.

I hope to do several of these before the June draft talking about some draft thoughts and preferences along with links to help those who want to get more info on the draft but don't know where to turn.   Andy Seiler's SBN draft blog MLBbonusbaby.com which is a great accessible and key word FREE resource folks to get a good sense of the lay of the land.  Andy is remarkably open and responsive to fan questions. Seiler lives in Georgia and gets to scout a lot of the SEC which is premium conference with a lot of talent.  One of the other excellent resources that is free is PNR scouting.  Nick James there has excellent scouting reports and is also great resource on twitter.  Most of you should know Minorleagueball.com which is run by John Sickles and does some excellent work related to the draft even with a focus on the minor leagues rather than amateur talent.  Baseballbeginnings.com is another great site that does its own scouting reports. MLB.com has a draft section with some video as well.

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I know its heresy but Im bored with Perfect Game Awesomeness and no one is talking about my draft post (which you should) so here is some minor league action.

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I hope to do several of these before the June draft talking about some draft thoughts and preferences along with links to help those who want to get more info on the draft but don't know where to turn.

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The third base situation for the A's has been in flux for the last eleventy billion years. Well not really, but it sure seems like that has been the case after the dominant portion of Eric Chavez's career ceded to the 60 day DL portion of Eric Chavez's career. With not only the seemingly infinitesimally small odds of Eric Chavez returning to his 2004 form, and his contract set to expire soon whether he rebounds or not, now is certainly the time to turn out attention to the hot corner. First, I will look at internal options for the position, then I will look at external options to fill 3b, which will show that, with the exception of a F'king A must take deal steal of a deal that it would be irresponsible to predicate the construction of a team upon, that offering Adrian Beltre a 4/32 contract is the best option currently available to fill 3b.

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You might find some familiar faces in this Texas League list.

1. Mat Latos, rhp, San Antonio (Padres)
2. Justin Smoak, 1b, Frisco (Rangers)
3. Chris Carter, 1b, Midland (Athletics)
4. Jhoulys Chacin, rhp, Tulsa (Rockies)
5. Brett Wallace, 3b, Springfield (Cardinals)
6. Jason Castro, c, Corpus Christi (Astros)
7. Esmil Rogers, rhp, Tulsa (Rockies)
8. Trevor Reckling, lhp, Arkansas (Angels)
9. Peter Bourjos, of, Arkansas (Angels)
10. Hank Conger, c, Arkansas (Angels)
11. Kasey Kiker, lhp, Frisco (Rangers)
12. Lance Lynn, rhp, Springfield (Cardinals)
13. Daniel Descalso, 2b, Springfield (Cardinals)
14. Michael McKenry, c, Tulsa (Midland)
15. Adrian Cardenas, 2b/3b, Midland (Athletics)
16. Jeff Bianchi, 2b/ss, Northwest Arkansas (Royals)
17. Logan Forsythe, 3b, San Antonio (Padres)
18. Dan Cortes, rhp, Northwest Arkansas (Royals)
19. Corey Brown, of, Midland (Athletics)
20. Samuel Deduno, rhp, Tulsa (Rockies)

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The last year has been a trying time for me.  After the 2008 election, life was the highest of highs, beating a two term incumbent Senator with a $5m campaign war chest and a promised DC job will do that.  Well after a holiday vacation, the DC job disappeared, and having banked on it, I had not been applying for other jobs.   I had a couple of sure things fall through, broke up with the girl that was keeping me distracted flying to LA to see her, and trying not to spend money living at home (NON-BASEMENT ROOM MIKEV!) don't really encourage a lot of happy times.

During this process, I have spent a huge chunk of my time at AN.  I lurked for years but only had written one short fanpost before this year and commented sporadically.  This year that has changed.  I have written 19 fanposts containing 23,233 words ( or 3 times the combined length of my two collegiate theses) and about 4,000 comments of varying length.  In otherwords, I spent the last year with you and it was a good decision (well not if you ask my mom).

I have made friends with many ANers online and off and have been the recipient of much generosity.  Wacchampion and his friend Ralph have taken me to several games this year including the last AN day.  SF drift king has also given me and a couple friends the opportunity to help populate an empty Coli when he wasn't using his tickets.  Imaseasonticketholder was also kind enough to let me use her great tickets to see Landon Powell blast a grand slam on the sunniest day of the year.  In addition to tickets I have gotten to eat Lynn's heavenly food both at AN tailgates and when Nico was kind enough to open his secret dark dungeon lovely home for Chez Nico.

Online, I have enjoyed debates, critiques, and fistacuffs with so many people. Among my favorites have been grover, who has helped me out with research in his pugnaciousness loveable furry blue comments,  Iglew, with his staty nonstatiness antidebate centric debatorness,  67Marquez, with his history, Leopold Bloom with his innuendo, PT, with sharing a debaters view of the world, sirbed with his sense of humor, nevermoor, for freaking out about the same antistats stuff I do, danmerqury, with his cogency when talking about statistics, WaddelCanseco, his love of upside, Notsellingjeans, depth and questions. flashfire for sharing pictures, Nico, for his penchant for being wrong disagreeing with me, Noava22, for Carlos!, mikev, for his big as grill (tm), and so many other people that run and populate the most reasoned and intellegint fan site I have ever wander across in the large series of tubes that make up the Internet.

No, Im not dying, but I do start a job with SEIU as a union organizer a week from Monday, so I wanted to take this opportunity to thank you all for being with me in a turbulent time of my life.  Now here comes the links:

Team USA wins the Pan-Am U18 Championship. You should care about this since many of the top draft picks from next years draft were on the team.

Andy Seiler put up his first 2010 mock draft.  This is his A's pick:

10. Oakland Athletics – Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast – Sale was the star of the Cape Cod League this summer, and most prospect buffs would be lying to you if they told you they knew who he was before his summer run. He’s going to battle Pomeranz and James Paxton for the top lefty in the college class during the spring, and there’s a good chance Sale comes out ahead. He’s also big, standing at 6′6", but he’s projectable too, as he might be able to add a good twenty pounds to his frame. He’s got a plus fastball with good movement and an effective changeup, and I see Sale as a relatively safe pick as far as pitchers go.

If you are reading this Blez, hurry up and give Andy a SBN blog.  Seriously he does some of the best work on the interwebs.

Sickels did a profile on our own Andrew Bailey.

Fangraphs: PT was right

Fangraphs: WTF are the Angels doing with their catching? I guess they could want to lose but still Napoli>>> Mathis.

Bud: I want an international draft and hard slotting.

I am a big believer in Josh Donaldson. If his defense was a little better he would be the A's number 3 prospect on my list a head of Brett Wallace.  Find out why you should be too and you should vote for him as the #4 prospect in Zonis' community poll after the fold.

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     Looking over at Fangraphs, I was surprised to see that Ryan Sweeney has reached 3.6 wins above replacement.  That places Sweeney a full win and a half above a league average player.  Considering that the sentiment around AN often declares Sweeney as a 4th OFer, rather than I starter, I wanted to delve into the reasons why that may be the case and try to project him moving forward.

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Unfortunately, I haven't been able to write much lately as trying to find a job has started taking more precedence as the prospect of being unemployed for a year has become much more real as we get closer to that milestone.  This should be the first of hopefully many, depending on my employment status, looks at possible free agent acquisitions.  This piece will focus on Akinori Iwamura, who while not technically a free agent, is likely to have his team option declined, since the Rays' have Ben Zorbist, Reid Brignac, and Sean Rodriguez (the PTBNL from the Kazmir deal) all available at league minimum to fill his starting spot at 2b and Evan Longoria well established at his former hot corner perch. Iwamura, according to Cot's Contracts, has a $4.25m and a $250k buy out.  There is however, a special provision in Iwamura's contract.  Since Iwamura has only three years of service time since coming over from Japan, he would normally only qualify for salary arbitration, regardless of whether the Rays pick up his option, but his contract contains a provision that requires the Rays to extend him before his contract expires, or to release him.

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Last week, the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays completed a trade sending former ace Scott Kazmir to the Angles for Alex Torres, Matt Sweeney, and a player to be named later. The player to be named later was supposedly a significant piece and the PTBNL was Sean Rodriguez who recently moved to the Rays roster. This trade has serious implications on the Angels and the AL West.

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The preliminary roster for this years' Arizona Fall League has been released.  While the A's are required by Major League Baseball to provide 6 players to the AFL, the A's AFL affiliate, the Desert Dogs, only listed three A's Jemile Weeks, Corey Brown, and Grant Desme.

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One of the main reasons that I come to AN is because I abhor most baseball writing.  While there are notable outliers like our own Susan Slusser or Dejan Kovacevic, but for every good writer there are six terrible ones.  One example that comes to mind is the NYT Yankee beat writer who wrote that Mark Tiexiera has locked up the MVP, no contest, apparently forgetting that there is this dude named Joe Mauer who makes Tiexiera look like a high school baseball star rather than the AL MVP.  Unfortunately we have a beat writer for mlb.com that is in my opinion on the wrong side of the side of the ledger.

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In a post signing deadline world I thought it would be nice to take a look at whats on the farm

1. Chris Carter RF/1b/DH In a word… Beast.  His MLEs suggest that he would be put up a .758 OPS in the big leagues right now.  I believe that he can stick as a average to -5 FRAA right fielder which makes him more valuable from a positional prospective and I think his bat will be better than Wallace, due to his light tower plus plus power, his superior walk rate,  His defensive improvements at 1b are encouraging in case route running proves elusive.  I could see him hitting .280/.370/.520 if everything works out or 40 BRAA.  He has the highest upside in the system, and could be an truly elite player, though there is some risk that he won't be able to hit breaking balls in the bigs.
2. Adrian Cardenas 2b/3b  Cardenas' tendency to struggle when promoted and then upon returning to the level dominating it, which seems to be reoccurring.  In the past month, Cardenas has a roughly calculated wOBA of .386 compared to a .336 league wOBA.  Lack of power projection turning into power in the box score is concerning but scouts say that he can hit .300 in his sleep so with his walk rate he becomes a very good player even without the power.  If he hits close to .300, he is a excellent candidate to hit something like .300/.375/.400 in the bigs which is good for about 25 BRAA.  His defense at third should be at least average once he learns the position. Essentially Cardenas isn't a bad bet to be a 4 WAR player once he gets settled in the bigs and could be up to a 5 WAR player.  That is a very good prospect with the chance to be one of those extraordinarily valuable players who gets absolutely no street cred.
3. Brett Wallace 1b/3b/DH I don’t like putting him here and until his recent hot streak and Donaldson's slump, I had Donaldson in this position.  Defensive concerns with Wallace trouble me as does his low walk rate and his lack of production this year with the bat until the last two weeks.  Hopefully, the improved productions recently is a sign that Wallace was rushed all the way to AAA less than a year after he was drafted and has recently caught up.  His walk rate is very concerning as a pro.  During his junior year Wallace walked in 16.6% of his PAs in AAA it has been less than half that.  Defensively Wallace at 3b i think is at least a -10 FRAA from UZR.  I expect him to have a bad range number but good double play runs and error runs since Wallace has a strong accurate arm.  This would place his defensive comparable somewhere in the Ty Wiggington, Mark Teahen, and Josh Fields range. Putting up .280/.340/.480 line would give him about a .380 wOBA or about 25 BRAA.  Defense would probably take away 7.5 to 10 runs fielding projecting him to be a 3.5 WAR player.
4. Josh Donaldson C/3b I am a big believer in Josh Donaldson. If his defense was a little better, or if he hadn't decided to hit for a .445 OPS clip over the last two weeks he would be second on my list and right now he is still right on the border.  74BB to 75Ks on the year is very very impressive and allows him to be a very very very good baseball player. If he hits .270 in the bigs and maintains his even a decreased walk rate so that he has a .350 OBA and has only a .100 ISO (which is significantly bellow every career ISO he has had) he is going to be worth about +11 BRAA, which should more than make up for his bad defense at catcher making him almost a 3.5 WAR player.  If he is forced to move back to his college position at third base he won't get the positional bump but he should be able to provide league average defense there since reports were that he was a good fielder in college.  That way he loses 10 positional runs but gains +10 FRAA making the switch likely to have a negligible effect on his value.  He is slightly lower than Wallace because he has more risk.
5. Jemile Weeks 2b Ridiculously hot start, slump, promotion, improvement after the slump is an interesting progression.  Reports of his defense have been significantly better than advertised coming out of Miami which increases his value significantly and will allow him to stay at 2b.  I am not as sold on his ability to hit for average as Cardenas, but he does share the excellent walk rate.  I see him as a .270/.350/.385 type player with a bunch of steals if he peaks right, which is certainly valuable.  One of the reasons why he is at #5 is that he relies on plus speed and has had a history of leg injuries both at Miami with his hamstrings and last year with the A's hurting his hip, which adds additional risk.
6. Aaron Cunningham LF I’m not that high on him but will have a MLB career which is very valuable.  I expect him to be about a 2.5 WAR player as his good defense will cancel out most of the positional adjustment and he will have a slightly more than league average bat. I think his risk of flame out is low which is why he holds this position without much upside.
7. Corey Brown CF Was progressing very nicely before the injuries.  His ability to hit for power and play good CF defense.  Brown could hit .260/.320/.480 or about 20 BRAA if he is able to carry forward the progress he has made cutting down the strikeouts.  That coupled with strong defense in center makes him could make him a good player going forward. That being said Brown presents a ton of risk and is kind of the opposite of Cunningham in a way.  Cunningham doesn't have a high ceiling but is going to have a hard time being terrible where as Corey Brown has a great chance of being terrible and a pretty good chance of being awesome coupled with a terrible chance of being ok.  That may be convoluted but thats why hes down in the seven spot rather than up around 3.
8. Grant Green SS Being a good SS prospect is very valuable, but far too many questions to be any higher on the list without pro data looks like he could be slightly below average with the glove, average with the bat and a 2.5 WAR SS.  Scouts like him more than I do, which is a large part of the placement here.
9. Anthony Capra P Not that high on him but at this point in the list everybody has some warts.  A 13 K/9 makes up for the 4.6 BB/9.  He has a plus change up that has become his strikeout pitch with an average fastball and an above average curve.  Early college use as a reliever and an appendectomy kept college mileage to a minimum on his arm and he is through the injury nexus which increases his chances of being healthy going forward.
10. Sean Doolittle RF/1b was having an under rated year before the knee problem but should return strong. Doolittle is close to the majors which is a huge asset as is his defense which should be plus at two positions.  That plus a league average bat should be a 2 WAR ML as early as mid season next year with the potential to do more.
11. Grant Desme RF Too many injuries and K’s but is destroying baseballs. I am not worried about his age as much as I am worried that health is a repeatable skill and Desme hasn't shown it so far.  That coupled with his seeming inability to hit breaking balls pushes him out of the top ten but he has a ton of potential.  Much like Corey Brown without the CF defense or the success in AA.
12. Max Stassi C Has the tools to be an above average backstop with both the bat and the glove but high school catchers are usually terrible draft investments.  Scouts have compared him to Craig Biggio if he would have stuck at catcher, which I think is a little much, and that it is very very unlikely that Stassi ever produces a .400 wOBA.  However, average catching defense and an league average bat makes a catcher a more than a 3.2 WAR player.  The risk of bat or defensive failure put him at this position.
13. James Simmons P Will play in the MLB which is very valuable in a prospect even with a Meh ceiling.  A Aaron Cunningham like prospect but as a pitcher there is significantly more risk of arm problems and unlike Cunningham who has excelled at every level of play so far, Simmons down year is concerning for someone whose biggest virtue is their near lock on being a back of the rotation starter and keeping you from spending tons of money on the back of the rotation filler of the world.
14. Michael Ynoa P "Historic" level of talent is always good but when you couple that with the lack of MLB success that the big time Latin American bonus babies have had plus injury nexus which he is already suffering from makes me worried.
15. Henry Rodriguez P Electric stuff but with a lack of control.  Henriguez destined for the bullpen which will limit his value.  Even good relievers are fairly fungible so while Henry may wind up a excellent power arm in the pen the