SB Nation User Blog: designatedforassignment

BA's Texas League Top Ten Is Released

designatedforassignment — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 20:14:33 -0000

You might find some familiar faces in this Texas League list.

1. Mat Latos, rhp, San Antonio (Padres)
2. Justin Smoak, 1b, Frisco (Rangers)
3. Chris Carter, 1b, Midland (Athletics)
4. Jhoulys Chacin, rhp, Tulsa (Rockies)
5. Brett Wallace, 3b, Springfield (Cardinals)
6. Jason Castro, c, Corpus Christi (Astros)
7. Esmil Rogers, rhp, Tulsa (Rockies)
8. Trevor Reckling, lhp, Arkansas (Angels)
9. Peter Bourjos, of, Arkansas (Angels)
10. Hank Conger, c, Arkansas (Angels)
11. Kasey Kiker, lhp, Frisco (Rangers)
12. Lance Lynn, rhp, Springfield (Cardinals)
13. Daniel Descalso, 2b, Springfield (Cardinals)
14. Michael McKenry, c, Tulsa (Midland)
15. Adrian Cardenas, 2b/3b, Midland (Athletics)
16. Jeff Bianchi, 2b/ss, Northwest Arkansas (Royals)
17. Logan Forsythe, 3b, San Antonio (Padres)
18. Dan Cortes, rhp, Northwest Arkansas (Royals)
19. Corey Brown, of, Midland (Athletics)
20. Samuel Deduno, rhp, Tulsa (Rockies)

I was surprised by a couple of things. The first is that Cardenas was that low. I know BA is generally an upside whore but this seems quite low. I mean Burjous hit worse as an OUTFIELDER. Trevor Reckling walked 5 yes 5 batters every nine innnings with a pedestrian K rate. Kiker walked 4.71 batters per 9 and had less than a 2/1 K/BB ratio. Descalso has never had a good year before this point and is a year older than Cardenas. Lynn had a less than 2:1 K/BB ratio. Seriously, thats ridiculous.

Second, I don't get the love for the Angles players here. Besides Conger, I don't think I would trade any my A's top 10 for the players on the list.

Third this quote seemed out of place to me:

Even the player who dominated the league for most of the season, Midland first baseman Chris Carter, departed for Triple-A before the year was over, leaving the RockHounds to battle through the playoffs without the league MVP. The supporting cast rose to the occasion, however, as Midland won the league title over Northwest Arkansas.

The RockHounds roster was representative of the league as a whole, with a few standouts and a depth of players who are interesting but are probably marginal major leaguers at best.

The Rockhound lineup at some point had a ML quality regular prospect at almost every position on the field. Donaldson behind the plate, Cardenas at third, Weeks at Second, yes Josh Horton is not a good prospect at SS, Carter at 1b, Brown in CF, Sulentic at LF and Peterson/Spencer in right. I count 6 position players that have ML futures as regulars if their development proceeds as expected.

So basically I don't get Will Lingo at all.

DLD 10/10 Thank Yous, Employment, and Living Poll

designatedforassignment — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 16:40:17 -0000

The last year has been a trying time for me. After the 2008 election, life was the highest of highs, beating a two term incumbent Senator with a $5m campaign war chest and a promised DC job will do that. Well after a holiday vacation, the DC job disappeared, and having banked on it, I had not been applying for other jobs. I had a couple of sure things fall through, broke up with the girl that was keeping me distracted flying to LA to see her, and trying not to spend money living at home (NON-BASEMENT ROOM MIKEV!) don't really encourage a lot of happy times.

During this process, I have spent a huge chunk of my time at AN. I lurked for years but only had written one short fanpost before this year and commented sporadically. This year that has changed. I have written 19 fanposts containing 23,233 words ( or 3 times the combined length of my two collegiate theses) and about 4,000 comments of varying length. In otherwords, I spent the last year with you and it was a good decision (well not if you ask my mom).

I have made friends with many ANers online and off and have been the recipient of much generosity. Wacchampion and his friend Ralph have taken me to several games this year including the last AN day. SF drift king has also given me and a couple friends the opportunity to help populate an empty Coli when he wasn't using his tickets. Imaseasonticketholder was also kind enough to let me use her great tickets to see Landon Powell blast a grand slam on the sunniest day of the year. In addition to tickets I have gotten to eat Lynn's heavenly food both at AN tailgates and when Nico was kind enough to open his ~~secret dark dungeon~~ lovely home for Chez Nico.

Online, I have enjoyed debates, critiques, and fistacuffs with so many people. Among my favorites have been grover, who has helped me out with research in his ~~pugnaciousness~~ loveable furry blue comments, Iglew, with his staty nonstatiness antidebate centric debatorness, 67Marquez, with his history, Leopold Bloom with his innuendo, PT, with sharing a debaters view of the world, sirbed with his sense of humor, nevermoor, for freaking out about the same antistats stuff I do, danmerqury, with his cogency when talking about statistics, WaddelCanseco, his love of upside, Notsellingjeans, depth and questions. flashfire for sharing pictures, Nico, for his penchant for ~~being wrong~~ disagreeing with me, Noava22, for Carlos!, mikev, for his big as grill (tm), and so many other people that run and populate the most reasoned and intellegint fan site I have ever wander across in the large series of tubes that make up the Internet.

No, Im not dying, but I do start a job with SEIU as a union organizer a week from Monday, so I wanted to take this opportunity to thank you all for being with me in a turbulent time of my life. Now here comes the links:

Team USA wins the Pan-Am U18 Championship. You should care about this since many of the top draft picks from next years draft were on the team.

Andy Seiler put up his first 2010 mock draft. This is his A's pick:

10. Oakland Athletics – Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast – Sale was the star of the Cape Cod League this summer, and most prospect buffs would be lying to you if they told you they knew who he was before his summer run. He’s going to battle Pomeranz and James Paxton for the top lefty in the college class during the spring, and there’s a good chance Sale comes out ahead. He’s also big, standing at 6′6", but he’s projectable too, as he might be able to add a good twenty pounds to his frame. He’s got a plus fastball with good movement and an effective changeup, and I see Sale as a relatively safe pick as far as pitchers go.

If you are reading this Blez, hurry up and give Andy a SBN blog. Seriously he does some of the best work on the interwebs.

Sickels did a profile on our own Andrew Bailey.

Fangraphs: PT was right

Fangraphs: WTF are the Angels doing with their catching? I guess they could want to lose but still Napoli>>> Mathis.

Bud: I want an international draft and hard slotting.

Poll

Where should DFA live after he starts his job with SEIU in Oakland?

Why would you even consider leaving SF!

9 votes

With the A's in Oakland!

33 votes

In your mom's basement where you should be, blogger!

43 votes

85 votes | Poll has closed

Josh Donaldson Is Better Than You Think

designatedforassignment — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 16:55:20 -0000

I am a big believer in Josh Donaldson. If his defense was a little better he would be the A's number 3 prospect on my list a head of Brett Wallace. Find out why you should be too and you should vote for him as the #4 prospect in Zonis' community poll after the fold.

The first thing that I like about Donaldson is his plate discipline. He has a career 153/200 BB/K ratio and 85BB to 99Ks on the year (including playoffs). He has a career .374 OBA which was .380 this year. This year he has walked in 15% of his regular season plate appearances. This is very very impressive especially for a catcher and could allow him to be a very very very good baseball player. His ceiling is very high despite people thinking otherwise. If Donaldson walks in 15% of his MLB PAs and gets 600 PAs Donaldson will walk 90 times on the year. If he hits .275 in his 510 ABs that is 140 hits. Combined he would have a .384 OBA. Donaldson has never had a below .132 ISO and has 15 hr potential so when you project slugging his ceiling around a .150 ISO leading to a .425 SLG. A .275/.384/.425 slash line is approximately a .359 wOBA. This year that would be good for 16 BRAA. With a 12.5 run positional adjustment for catching and 20 runs for replacement Donaldson would be 48.5 runs above replacement without factoring in defense. If his upside behind the plate is -5 FRAA then he has All-Star upside as a 4.3 WAR player.

If he hits .260 which is below his career aver in the bigs and maintains his even a decreased walk rate (12.5% or 75 walks over 600 PAs) he still gets 136 hits and has a .353 OBA. With a .125 ISO (which is below any of the minor league seasons hes had to date) he slugs .385. He still has a league average bat with a .328 wOBA. when coupled with replacement runs, position, and assuming -12.5 FRAA defense behind the plate he still projects to be a league average player.

If he is forced to move back to his college position at third base he won't get the positional bump but he should be able to provide league average defense there since reports were that he was a good fielder in college.

Pgcrosschecker.com

SCOUTING REPORT: Donaldson is a first-rate defender at third base, but his profile plays better behind the plate and he began a successful conversion to catching a year ago, successfully completing the transition this year.

Also from his MLB draft profile. Link:

Fielding: Donaldson is new to full-time catching, but has good hands and caught fairly well. Some think he’s athletic enough to handle a Biggio-like move to second.

Some see a switch to the infield — he’s played third in college — but he may make for a good backup catcher who plays the game the right way.

More PG

In games Donaldson isn’t behind the plate, he’s at third base, as he has the lateral quickness and incredibly strong arm to play either position. He has alternated between the two positions the last couple of years after starting his college career as a full-time third baseman, so he is still a little unrefined behind the plate, but has the tools to succeed there.

The positional adjustment for catchers is 12.5 runs where as it is only 2.5 runs at 3b. If he moves to 3b I expect him to be a league average 3bman defensively (though there is potential for him to be better). If his upside is +5 FRAA at 3b his upside projection as a catcher is still valid at 3b. Reports of his poor defense behind the plate, while coupled with some that say he has improved slightly, suggest that he could be a -10 FRAA as a catcher. Therefore moving him to third loses him 10 positional runs but he gains +10 FRAA, as the his defense when compared to his peers is significantly better at the hot corner, using reasonable projections making the switch likely to have a negligible effect on his value.

Because Josh Donaldson has All-Star (4+WAR) upside at two positions and conservative projection puts Donaldson as a league average player at either of those two positions, you should vote for Donaldson as the number 4 prospect in the A's system.

Ryan Sweeney Is Better Than You Think He Is

designatedforassignment — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 20:14:49 -0000

Looking over at Fangraphs, I was surprised to see that Ryan Sweeney has reached 3.6 wins above replacement. That places Sweeney a full win and a half above a league average player. Considering that the sentiment around AN often declares Sweeney as a 4th OFer, rather than I starter, I wanted to delve into the reasons why that may be the case and try to project him moving forward.

The first and most obvious reason that Ryan Sweeney is underrated is due to defense. An era of offensive explosion and new statistics that more accurately explained and valued the way runs are and were produced created an overvaluing of offense over what was considered statistically immeasurable defense in relation to offense. Now we have a contracting run environment, which makes the marginal run and thus run prevention more valuable that goes along with new and better ways of measuring defense that puts in nearly on par with offensive contributions to the game. Defense is also hard to see in a vacuum. Jeter's patented jump throw makes New York partisans and infrequent observers of our great game conclude that he is a excellent defensive player, while a more informed observer will glean from statistics or more diverse observation that Jeter's lack of range requires a seemingly great play to make what others get to easily.

I think Sweeney may suffer from the exact opposite. Sweeney has extremely long strides which makes it harder to see the ground he makes up because he doesn't look like he is running that hard. His range has been rated as excellent by UZR with a 3.9 range rating in center and an outstanding 10.7 range rating in right field. To give proper context in how good that is, UZR's range component is a counting rather than a rate stat, which means that the more plays one makes the better nominal value is. Therefore the fact that Sweeney has only spent 577 innings in RF and still leads the league (just ahead of Ichiro and JD Drew) in UZR's Range Runs component.

The other thing that I find interesting and could be coincidental is that there is an about -10 FRAA difference between Sweeney's defensive production at CF compared to RF per 150, which is what the difference is suppose to be. That would seem to suggest that if his defensive production in the corner or center is being overly influenced by luck that his numbers at both positions are being influenced at nearly the same rate. Since the range increase is uniform it makes sense that Sweeney after a full year in the bigs is taking better routes and has increased his value defensively.

Furthermore, the UZR numbers from this year give question to the accuracy of some of last years numbers especially in regard to his arm runs rating. Sweeney had a -3.6 runs runs in center field accounting for the vast majority of the negative runs he contributed from center field. Considering that RFers have the most emphasis placed on their arm to prevent first to third advancement on the longest throw from the outfield, it makes no sense that being judged against stronger throwers on the whole Sweeney faired about ten runs better. Therefore, last year's arm numbers wreak of small sample size issues. It is however likely that this year's Arm numbers are more reasonable for both CF and for RF.

Therefore, when projecting forward Sweeney it seems reasonable to expect contribute 1 WAR worth of runs at either position considering position and defense (7.5 FRAA with 2.5 positional in CF or 17.5 with a -7.5 positional). There of course are problems with this projection, it relies on UZR numbers being consistent which is not always the case. When building WAR projections with defensive numbers the precision is less than that of the hitting component. That is why I have discounted the UZR data about 5 runs/150 so that the estimate is more conservative. When combined with replacement runs, Sweeney is a very reasonable 3 WAR player if he exhibits league average offense.

What are the chances that he exhibits league average offense? Sweeney has a .322 career wOBA which is below league average. However, that number is dragged down by his year 21 and year 22 seasons with the Chicago White Soxs, who rushed him severely up to the big leagues. His numbers in his Oakland seasons have been league average or better. This year Sweeney has hit for a wOBA of .332 against a .329 league average. Those numbers aren't park adjusted making them even more impressive and worth 3 batting runs above average. Last year Sweeney put up a wOBA of .328 which was league average. The question in can these numbers be replicated going forward, because if they stay consistent or improve, Sweeney is a very valuable player.

Studies have shown that xBABIP calculation correlates the best year to year for batters, though that stat uses a lot of not readily available. Therefore I plugged in Sweeney's numbers into the qxBABIP formula which correlates second best. The qxBABIP (quick expected batting average on balls in play) calculator at Hard Ball Times believes that Sweeney has a higher than expected BABIP. However the HBT qxBABIP calculator uses SBs as an approximation of speed, and Sweeney has not run much this year and when he has he has not been very successful. Though Sweeney has not stolen many bases or run much he still has good speed which would provide the expectation that he would out preform that version of qxBABIP. The qxBABIP of .317 would seem to suggest regression moving forward which is mitigated by speed not captured by the model and the fact that this years BABIP is not a significant departure from his career norms.

Sweeney has long been knocked for his failure to exhibit the prototypical power of a corner Ofer or the gaudy OBP that makes up for it. Can we expect that moving forward? Expecting Sweeney to maintain a .350 OBP seems reasonable since he has carried one for the last two years and this years improvement in batting average is coupled with Sweeney's lowest walk rate since 2006, and both are likely to regress. Sweeney's power is likely to improve as well since he is just 24 years old a hitters prime is generally considered to be age 26-31. This year Sweeney's ISOP has improved by .018 from his 2008 and looking at his time in AAA there is certainly room for improvement toward his AAA numbers. In 2006 Sweeney had a .158 ISOP and in 2007 Sweeney posted a .128 ISOp. If Sweeney continues to improve his MLB ISO towards those AAA numbers he would be a valuable player. If Sweeney holds a .285 batting average moving forward, with a .130 ISO and a .065 ISOd, those are the components of a .285/.350/.415 line or an approximately .337 wOBA. With this years .329 league average wOBA that computes to 4 wRAA (batting runs above average from wOBA without being park adjusted like BRAA). Lets say that park adjustment ads an additional BRAA to equal 5.

Essentially when you combine 5 BRAA, 10 fielding and positional runs, with 20 runs for replacement level, Sweeney even with a UZR regression, BA regression, and slight improvement in walk rate and ISO is a 3.5 WAR player, which qualifies as a playoff level starter. Even with more regression A penny saved is a penny earned and Sweeney gets a bad rap because it is hard to see his defensive value while his offensive value is just average. Moving forward it is clear that Ryan Sweeney is likely to be an excellent player.

Possible Free Agent Targets: Akinori Iwamura

designatedforassignment — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 01:27:56 -0000

Unfortunately, I haven't been able to write much lately as trying to find a job has started taking more precedence as the prospect of being unemployed for a year has become much more real as we get closer to that milestone. This should be the first of hopefully many, depending on my employment status, looks at possible free agent acquisitions. This piece will focus on Akinori Iwamura, who while not technically a free agent, is likely to have his team option declined, since the Rays' have Ben Zorbist, Reid Brignac, and Sean Rodriguez (the PTBNL from the Kazmir deal) all available at league minimum to fill his starting spot at 2b and Evan Longoria well established at his former hot corner perch. Iwamura, according to Cot's Contracts, has a $4.25m and a $250k buy out. There is however, a special provision in Iwamura's contract. Since Iwamura has only three years of service time since coming over from Japan, he would normally only qualify for salary arbitration, regardless of whether the Rays pick up his option, but his contract contains a provision that requires the Rays to extend him before his contract expires, or to release him.

Aki has shown a slightly above league average bat with a career .332 wOBA. This year Aki is exceeding that figure in limited playing time after returning from knee surgery earlier in the year. This years' .341 wOBA may be partially explained by Iwamura's .366 BABIP. However, Iwamura has always had high BABIP, which can partially be attested to his 20% career line drive rate, good speed, ample ground ball percentage, and hitting left handed. The thing that really jumps out and makes me think that he can sustain his high BAPIP number are that while Iwamura's walk rate is league average he swings at balls at dramatically below league average rate, this year only 14% of all pitches out of the zone compared to a 25% league average.

There are some reasons to worry about possible regression. Aki's .366 BABIP is a career high and his infield fly ball percentage is a flukishly low 1.7%. That being said his HR/FB rate is also likely to regress above his career low 1.7% this year back toward his 4% career average, which should make up some of the difference in lost output from a BABIP with a higher ISO from hitting more home runs. Moving forward at a still youngish 30. I expect that Aki will be slightly more than league average with the bat (2.5 BRAA) over the next two or three years.

Now lets look at defense. In the Majors, Iwamura has played both 3b and 2b with the (Devil) Rays. Tom Tango had the great idea of polling fans who watch their team's defense for a ton of games every year. While observation in this manner is far from perfect, it does provide an additional reference point to UZR. This years Fans' Scouting Report has Aki above average in every category, with an overall rating of good (3.9 out of 5), though coming back from an injury he might have been a little slower initially. Compare that with the 2008 The Scouting Report, By the Fans, For the Fans:

Player	Pos	Position-Specific	Overall Position-Neutral	Instincts	FirstStep	Speed	Hands	Release	Strength	Accuracy	Ballots	Agreement Level
Iwamura, Akinori	2B	73	72	75	72	61	76	83	56	77	39	0.76

And now for 2007:

Player	Pos	Overall Position- Neutral	Instincts	FirstStep	Speed	Hands	Release	Strength	Accuracy	Ballots	Agreement Level
Iwamura, Akinori	3B	78	86	84	65	76	85	63	81	27	0.79

This is fun right? The reason why I bring this up is several fold. First UZR numbers for Aki are muddied by the fact that he has played two different positions of over the last three years so the sample sizes are small, but they show him as a league average fielder at both 2b and 3b, where he won several gold gloves in Japan. I would expect Iwamura to have league average to slightly above league average defense at either position.

Before coming to the United States, Aki Iwamura suggested that he was willing to play SS, CF, or 2B in addition to his traditional 3b. By signing Aki, the A's would be acquiring a starting caliber 3b/2b, which would allow the A's to keep Wallace in the minors or shift him over to 1b without rushing Adrian Cardenas. This further protects against a Mark Ellis injury which is not an infrequent occurrence, and would prevent rushing Cardenas to fill in and is surely a better option than playing Gregorio Petit.

I have suggested in the past with regards to Adam Kennedy that it would be problematic to have a back up infielder who could not play SS. This is especially true with the likelyhood that Cliff Pennington bombs and there needs to be another option at SS. Because of his defensive reputation I think Iwamura would able to play a semi respectable SS, around -5 to -10 FRAA, which wouldn't negatively affect his value with the increased position runs. Which coupled with Pennington's strong showing this year, makes it less likely that that possibility would come into play. The A's depth has not been good for the last couple of years and the ability to add a starting caliber player for what I suspect could be a $4.5m per year for two years, a $9m total package coming off of his knee injury.

Finally, and I have no knowledge of how much revenue it would generate, but adding a Japanese star could do the A's well by increasing attention, merchandise sales, and reaching out to the Japanese fan base in the Bay Area and abroad. If the A's signed Iwamura, maybe the next time they open the year in Japan, they will have more supporters in the Tokyo Dome.

When it all comes down to it, I see Adam Kennedy wanting a similar contract for less production, especially at third base. Furthermore, Aki's versatility would serve the A's well compared to a strictly 3b only candidate like Adrian Beltre, who would also probably cost more.

Implications of the Scott Kazmir Trade on the AL West

designatedforassignment — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 15:34:53 -0000

Last week, the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays completed a trade sending former ace Scott Kazmir to the Angles for Alex Torres, Matt Sweeney, and a player to be named later. The player to be named later was supposedly a significant piece and the PTBNL was Sean Rodriguez who recently moved to the Rays roster. This trade has serious implications on the Angels and the AL West.

The first thing that we should look at is Kazmir's contract. According to the amazing Cot's Contracts:

Scott Kazmir lhp
3 years/$28.5M (2009-11), plus 2012 club option

3 years/$28.5M (2009-11), plus 2012 club option

signed extension with Tampa Bay 5/14/08

09:$6M, 10:$8M, 11:$12M, 12:$13.5M club option ($2.5M buyout)

$0.8M bonus if traded (for first trade only)

perks: use of luxury suite for 5 home games per season

Kazmir to donate to club charity $75,000 each in 2009 and 2010, and $100,000 each in 2011 and 2012 (if option is exercised)

acquired by LA Angels in trade from Tampa Bay 8/29/09

The critical part is that in addition to the prorated portion of $6m this year along with the $800k bonus for being traded, or $1,947,541, the Angles are on the hook for $22.5m over the next two seasons. So the first part of the question is what value will Kazmir provide to the Angels for the next two years. Kazmir has the warning signs of a pitcher in decline. Kazmir had built his previous success on not only being a strikeout pitcher, but being one of the best strikeout pitchers in the major leagues, coming in 2nd among qualified starters in K/9 in 2007, the height of his value. He has not done that this year. His fastball velocity is down 1.7 MPH between 2007 and 2009 and in the same time period his once strong slider is down 3.8 MPH according to Pitch f(x). Both subsequently are down in effectiveness, as his slider was twice as effective per 100 pitches last year and his fastball loses more than a run more for his team compared to 2007. Kazmir's loss of stuff is also reflected in his swinging strike rates which climbed by 6.6% in the last year and 7.6% from 2007, declining from significantly above league average to above league average. He also lost his ability to generate ground balls. After having a higher ground ball percentage than fly ball percentage in 2005, 2006, and 2007, that trend reversed itself in the last two years.

The best thing within a pitchers control that they can do to prevent runs is to get swinging strikes, and in that regard Scott Kazmir is becoming a much much worse pitcher. The 7.8% decline in K rate means that 51 more balls will be put in play, if Kazmir faces 650 batters and has a .47% FB rate and a 10% FB/HR rate, that in addition to giving up more hits he will give up 2-3 more Hrs than in the past. Kazmir has always been susceptible to the long ball but the drop in his K rate and walking more than 4 batters per 9 innings suggest that he will be a league average or below pitcher if his stuff doesn't rebound from his injuries.

One of the great things that Blez has done with SB Nation is having a player page that is updated with all of the nagging injuries that are reported. Look at Scott Kazmir's last three years.

June 26, 2009	Missed 33 games (quadricep injury).
May 22, 2009	Quadricep injury, 15-day DL.
July 19, 2008	Rest, day-to-day.
May 4, 2008	Missed 30 games (strained left elbow).
March 25, 2008	Strained left elbow, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 21).
October 2, 2006	Missed the last 36 games of the regular season (shoulder injury).
August 26, 2006	Shoulder injury, 15-day DL.
August 8, 2006	Missed 14 games (shoulder injury).
July 30, 2006	Shoulder injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to July 24).

Is that the kind of injury history that you want on your side going into $22.5m guaranteed after this year and $1.95m this year? To be worth his contract Kazmir needs to generate 6 WAR or so between now and the end of the 2010 season. Considering that the last two years Kazmir has been 2 or less WAR, expecting him to return to a 2.875+ WAR a year pitcher and contributing .25 WAR (being a leauge average pitcher over 5 starts) this year, seems foolish.

However, with any pitcher and especially one that has shown the disparate levels of performance there is significant risk. If Kazmir returns to his 5 WAR form from 2007 he would be worth his 2010 and 2011 salary in just one season and with a 2012 option that is cheap for a pitcher of that caliber. That being said with the injury history you see above it is also possible that a strained left elbow (which by definition is a tear) turns into a torn UCL and requires Tommy John surgery, or a series of shoulder injuries turns into a torn labrum. Therefore, it does not seem unreasonable to believe that the risk of injury going forward equals or exceeds the likelihood of a significant rebound beyond 3 WAR. If Kazmir's performance is 2.875 WAR a year going forward and .25 WAR this year, the Kazmir has no surplus value to the Angles. If, as I believe, the possible risk of injury or performance degradation outweighs the potential to outperform expectations then the contract has negative value for the Angles.

So if there is no surplus value the Angles are neither winners or losers in the strictest sense, as long as they paid nothing to acquire him and the opportunity cost of doing so does impede other acquisitions that would provide surplus value. Fortunately for A's fans, the Angels paid a high price in talent to acquire Scott Kazmir and arguably used a significant portion of their discretionary funds for the acquisition of Kazmir.

Lets look at the discretionary funds portion first.

LA ANGELS			salary+prorated bonus
	Pos'n	Length / Total Value	2009	2010	10 projected	2011	11 projected	2012
Hunter, Torii	of	5 yr/$90M (08-12)	$18,000,000	$18.500	$18.500	$18.500	$18.500	$18.500
Guerrero, Vladimir	of	5 yr/$70M (04-08)+09 cl opt	$15,000,000	FA
Matthews Jr., Gary	of	5 yr/$50M (07-11)	$10,400,000	$11.400	$11.400	$12.400	$12.400	FA
Escobar, Kelvim	rhp	3 yr/$28.5M (07-09)	$10,000,000	FA
Lackey, John	rhp	3 yr/$17.01M (06-08)+09 cl opt	$10,000,000	FA
Fuentes, Brian	lhp	2 yr/$17.5M (09-10)+11 opt	$8,500,000	$9.000	$9.000
Kazmir, Scott	lhp	3 yr/$28.5M (09-11),+ 12 cl opt	$1,947,541	$8.000	$8.000	$12.500	$12.500
Figgins, Chone	inf	1 yr/$5.775M (09)	$5,775,000	FA
Abreu, Bobby	of	1 yr/$5M (09)	$5,000,000	FA
Shields, Scot	rhp	3 yr/$14.6M (08-10)	$5,000,000	$5.350	$5.350	FA	FA
Speier, Justin	rhp	4 yr/$18M (07-10)	$4,750,000	$5.250	$5.250	FA	FA
Santana, Ervin	rhp	4 yr/$30M (09-12)+13 cl opt	$3,800,000	$6.000	$6.000	$8.000	$8.000	$11.200
Oliver, Darren	lhp	1 yr/$3.665M (09)	$3,665,000	FA
Rivera, Juan	of	3 yr/$12.75M (09-11)	$3,250,000	$3.250	$3.250	$3.250	$3.250	FA
Napoli, Mike	c	1 yr/$2M (09)	$2,000,000	Arb 2	$3.500	Arb 3	$5.000	Arb 4
Izturis, Maicer	inf	1 yr/$1.6M (09)	$1,600,000	Arb 3	$3.200	FA	FA
Quinlan, Robb	inf	1 yr/$1.1M (09)	$1,100,000	FA
Morales, Kendry	inf-of	6 yr/$4.5M (05-10)	$1,100,000	$1.200	$1.200	Arb 1	$5.000	Arb 2
Saunders, Joe	lhp	1 yr/$0.475M (09)	$475,000	Arb 1	$2.000	Arb 2	$3.000	Arb 3
Kendrick, Howie	2b	1 yr/$0.465M (09)	$465,000	Arb 1	$1.800	Arb 2	$3.000
Weaver, Jared	rhp	1 yr/$0.465M (09)	$465,000	Arb 1	$4.000	Arb 2	$7.000	Arb 3
Aybar, Erick	ss	1 yr/$0.46M (09)	$460,000	Arb 1	$2.500	Arb 2	$4.000	Arb 3
Mathis, Jeff	c	1 yr/$0.45M (09)	$450,000	Arb 1	$1.500	Arb 2	$2.250	Arb 3
Willits, Reggie	of	1 yr/$0.45M (09)
Moseley, Dustin	rhp	1 yr/$0.435M (09)	$435,000			Arb 1	$1.000	Arb 2
Arredondo, Jose	rhp	1 yr/$0.41M (09)	$410,000		$0.425
Loux, Shane	rhp	1 yr/$0.405M (09)	$405,000
Rodriguez, Sean	ss	1 yr/$0.405M (09)
Wood, Brandon	ss	1 yr/$0.405M (09)			$0.425
Bulger, Jason	rhp	1 yr/$0.403M (09)	$403,000		$0.425
Jepsen, Kevin	rhp	1 yr/$0.401M (09)	$401,000		$0.425
Adenhart, Nick	rhp	1 yr/$0.4M (09)	$400,000
Brown, Matt	inf	1 yr/$0.4M (09)
Budde, Ryan	c	1 yr/$0.4M (09)
Evans, Terry	of	1 yr/$0.4M (09)
Ortega, Anthony	rhp	1 yr/$0.4M (09)
Rodriguez, Rafael	rhp	1 yr/$0.4M (09)
Sandoval, Freddy	inf	1 yr/$0.4M (09)
Thompson, Rich	rhp	1 yr/$0.4M (09)
Trumbo, Mark	1b
Wilson, Bobby	c	1 yr/$0.4M (09)
Anderson, Garret			$3,000,000
TOTAL			$116,709,000	$59.950	$88.150	$42.150	$84.900	$29.700

*My projections are based on similar arbitration cases over the last two years and I had a 3k word post all written up Sunday night when AN/Chromium/Ubuntu's new alpha made it disappear. Therefore, if you have any questions based on the amounts of the arbitration awards (or really any questions in general), I am more than happy to answer them but I am going to cut this part of this version.*

Considering the dismal state of the economy, it is likely that the Angels payroll will be down to $110m next year. That would provide just slightly less than $30m before the Kazmir acquisition. The Angles would be lacking two starting pitchers, a starting right fielder, a starting designated hitter, back up first and third baseman, a starting third baseman, a left handed reliever, and a setup man. Kazmir's $8m represents a little more than a fourth of that sum, leaving only about $22m remaining to fill all of those positions. That makes it nearly impossible to see a return for Chone Figgins, who will likely command $7.5-$10m a season for at least three years, when Brandon Wood is a viable replacement at the hot corner. Similarly John Lackey will receive around $15-17m a year for at least 4 years and likely more, which makes his return unlikely as well since the rest of those needs would have to be filled at $5m-$7m total. There are also back of the rotation candidates within the system, Dustin Mosely, Shane Loux, and others, who despite not being very good are cheap replacements, though the Angels are clearly lacking depth.

Right field and DH do not have suitable internal replacement. Gary Mathews Jr is a below replacement rate player and Reggie Wiltis is not a major league starter. While there a plenty of DH bats available, which should depress their prices. Further, Juan Rivera has had plenty of experience in RF, which puts left fielders in play as free agents.

This suggests that getting one big bat for the outfield and letting DH be a position that players rotate through to provide rest and better catcher defense with Napoli getting lots of DH at bats with Mathis behind the plate. If the Angles sign a bat for $16m+ plus they can probably only afford at most a good bullpen arm (such as resigning Darren Oliver) and a back up 1b/3b veteran.

2011 is an even bigger problem if they have $16-$20m committed to an OF bat. The trade of Sean Rodriguez will require them to stick with Howie Kendrick through arbitration, and they will need a back up MI when Macir Izturis leaves after 2010. Closer also becomes a problem as Brian Fuentes is in an $11m option year that if exercised leaves no budget room for the rest of the bullpen which will need serious help with setup men, starting DH, negotiate extensions with arbitration eligible players, or to replace under performing or injured players.

Essentially the Kazmir trade throughly compromises their payroll flexibility, doing so for someone that is not likely to bring surpluss value beyond his contract.

The trade also gave up three of the Angles best prospects from one of the most depleted farm systems in baseball, though their 2009 draft was strong.

Here are the Sickles grades on the two prospects.

14) Alexander Torres, LHP, Grade C+: 10-3, 2.74 with a 124/63 K/BB in 121 innings for Rancho, just promoted to Double-A where he's 2-1, 3.60 with a 17/14 K/BB in 20 innings. Needs to improve command, but gets lots of ground balls and fans people.

Matt Sweeney

I gave him a Grade C due to he uncertainty regarding recovery from his 2008 ankle injury. In the book I wrote that I had him as a Grade C+ with some breakout potential if he was fully healthy.

While C+ prospects aren't a lot, the Angles entering this year have only five better than C+ prospects in their system. Sweeney was

The biggest piece is Rodriguez who Fangraphs said this about:

He’s a 24-year-old middle infielder with a ridiculous line of .301/.402/.622 in Triple-A. It comes in a hitters park where the team average line is .273/.342/.434, but Rodriguez still possesses some skills that appear to separate him from a figment of the ballpark. Baseball America had him amongst the top 10 prospects in the Angels system in their 2008 pre-season rankings and didn’t appear on the 2009 list because he received more than 150 plate appearances last season causing him to lose his prospect status.

With a 2 years of team control left and 3 years of arbitration (and a 40%, 60%, 80% salary/value model for those arbitration years) means that if Rodriguez is only worth 1 WAR for 6 years he would be providing the team the value of 3.2 WAR to the Rays which valued at $4m a pythagorean win is $12.8m in value to the Rays. Rodriguez has significant upside beyond the 1 WAR a year projection especially if he stays at SS.

In addition, the cost in prospects is very significant as it almost negates the Angels ability to make an offseason deal. Of their top prospects almost all have either been hurt, not progressed, do not have much upside, or were needed for the back of the rotation. Their strong draft picks this year cannot be traded because it has been less than a year since they were drafted. Rodriguez, Torres, and Sweeney represent some of the most valuable trading chips that the organization had, and this trade leaves them with little to make trades with going forward.

Due to the lack of surplus value in Kazmir's contract, the value of the prospects lost, and the opportunity cost for other acquisitions, the acquisition of Scott Kazmir has seriously impeded the Angles ability to compete moving forward in a much more competitive AL West.

A's Preliminary AFL Roster Announced

designatedforassignment — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 19:45:44 -0000

The preliminary roster for this years' Arizona Fall League has been released. While the A's are required by Major League Baseball to provide 6 players to the AFL, the A's AFL affiliate, the Desert Dogs, only listed three A's Jemile Weeks, Corey Brown, and Grant Desme.

Here are the rules for eligibility:

Each Major League organization is required to provide six players subject to the following requirements:

All Triple-A and Double-A players are eligible, provided the players are on at least a Double-A level roster no later than Aug. 1.

One player below the Double-A level is allowed per Major League team.

One foreign player is allowed, as long as the player does not reside in a country that participates in winter ball, as part of the Caribbean Confederation or the Australian winter league.

No players with more than one year of credited Major League service as of August 31 are eligible, except a team may select one player picked in the most recently concluded Major League Rule 5 Draft.

To be eligible, players on Minor League disabled lists must be activated at least 45 days before the conclusion of their respective seasons.

Every other team that feeds the Desert Dogs has contributed three pitcher, including the Nationals Stephen Strausberg, except for the Oakland A's. Usually, top pitching prospects don't go to the AFL as it increases innings and with the dry air, pitchers get battered around a bit. Tyson Ross would seem like a good candidate, but he has already pitched 125 innings this year after only 92 innings at Berkeley and in the A's system last year. Capra could be the one exception for being under AA, and he pitched a fair number of innings last year. However, his 135 innings this year is probably pushing how much mileage the A's are going to put on his arm. FDLS will need innings but I would think that the A's would want to control those more than they could in the AFL. Carlos Hernandez would be an interesting choice if they were going to try to fast track him, but again he has thrown 147 innings.

Here are my guesses at the A's pitching component:

Henry Rodriguez: Being on the 40 man roster means that he needs to get to the bigs soon, and is under his innings numbers from last year.

James Simmons: He is under his innings from last year and the A's are going to need him to be ready for the inevitable injury next year, and if not to hopefully rebuild his trade value. He will be rule 5 eligible at the end of the 2010 anyway so he will need to be placed on the roster.

Clayton Mortensen: He is exactly like Simmons except for being on the 40 man. If Eveland doesn't make the team out of spring training it is likely he will be lost on waivers. If that is the case Mortensen will likely be the first starter called up to fill in for injury. Otherwise the A's are going to need to try to boost his trade value which isn't that high right now.

Who are your picks?

Why I Hate Baseball Writing or a Tale of a Big Urb Blog Entry

designatedforassignment — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 06:55:10 -0000

One of the main reasons that I come to AN is because I abhor most baseball writing. While there are notable outliers like our own Susan Slusser or Dejan Kovacevic, but for every good writer there are six terrible ones. One example that comes to mind is the NYT Yankee beat writer who wrote that Mark Tiexiera has locked up the MVP, no contest, apparently forgetting that there is this dude named Joe Mauer who makes Tiexiera look like a high school baseball star rather than the AL MVP. Unfortunately we have a beat writer for mlb.com that is in my opinion on the wrong side of the side of the ledger.

The most recent post on Big Urb, Mychael Urban's blog was a great example of bad sports writing. First Urban discussed a change that Travis Buck has made to his swing and ditching his thumb guard. Urban from the first part of his post it is clear that Urban is a fan of Travis Buck, which is more than fine, but in this case he presents his argument in a disingenuous way. This is how Urban described the Buck's new swing:

The dramatic change he's making is being roundly applauded by the scouts to whom I've talked about it.

Now that sure sounds like a bunch of trained baseball observers have watched Buck play and like the change. Right? Not so fast. Both of the scouts start their comments on Buck with

"That's great to hear,"

and

"It's nice to hear,"

Because guess what? From both comments it is clear that neither has actually seen Buck and was informed of the change by Urban. Now thats not to say that Bucks new mechanics aren't better than the old ones. However, Urban presents bad information by saying that the change was good. Bucks' new swing could be even more screwed up than the movement screwed up his old swing, but these scouts couldn't tell you that since they haven't seen Buck play. Urban could have easily been more accurate and neutral, by saying for example, that "Travis Buck was taking his time in Sacramento to ditch a part of his swing that scouts had previously disliked." Urban could have used the exact same quotes because they speak to not liking a part of Buck's old swing and has nothing to do with seeing or liking his new one. But instead Urban choose to portray a player he like as getting shafted by management, being a hard worker, and having a really well liked revamped swing, all of which may be true but aren't necessarily supported by his article.

While that would be a minor annoyance and some biased reporting, that was probably the high point in the article. Urban followed with this little dandy:

... Tommy Everidge got his third start of the year at DH today, and I'm thinking he'll get about 100 or more starts there next year. I just don't see Jack Cust in green and gold next year, and Everidge probably isn't good enough on defense to be an everyday first baseman. But as his man-sized home run off Sabathia showed, he's got Custian pop, and he's more of a complete hitter. And he's cheaper. No-brainer.

This is to be frank, a crock of shit. Jack Cust is in every way a better hitter than Tommy Everidge. Not only does Cust have a far superior track record than Everidge, Cust is also better this year, even in bad stats like batting average and RBIs. Just look at the numbers: wOBA .332 Cust, .295 Everidge. AVG .234 Cust, .222 Everidge, BB% 15.5% Cust, 9.0% Everidge, Slug .393 Cust to .370 Everidge and even RBIs/PA Cust wins too. Their BB/K rate is esentially the same at .50 for Cust and .54 for Everidge. The only thing that Everidge is better at is his raw K rate which is about 2/3s what Custs is. So basically the only thing that Everidge has an advantage in (K rate) is negated by his crappy walk rate.

One of the only true things in that paragraph is that Cust is going to become arbitration eligible at the end of the season and become less affordable, while Everidge is going to still be paid league minimum. However, Cust's arbitration award (first year arbitration awards are suppose to approximate 40% of free agent market value) shouldn't be oppressive by any means, since Adam Dunn only secured $10 million on the free agent market and he is a superior player in pretty much every way to Cust. I would venture to guess that Cust would get a about $2.8 m in arbitration. Now ZIPS rest of the season projections shows Cust getting much of his power back and hitting with a .360 wOBA the rest of the way, suggesting that next year he will likely rebound. Furthermore, starting the year fresh without having his sucessful approach messed with by the A's coaching staff and with a chance to heal his back injury which could be sapping his power, I would expect a return to form. If Cust hits for a .370 wOBA from the DH spot, 21 BRAA and a -17.5 runs positional, that makes him a 2.5 WAR player. At $4.5m for a marginal win thats $11.25m in value for $2.8 in salary, and a significant win for the A's.

Everidge on the other had projects to be blow league average with the bat again next year. 26 year old journeyman don't magically get significantly better. Everidge's production almost exactly mirrors his CHONE projections for this year. Even supposing a .040 point wOBA improvement, which is far from certain or even likely, Everidge would provide nearly replacement level production, since 0 BRAA plus the -17.5 positional runs from being a DH almost completely negates the 20 runs that are credited for 600 plate apearaces to adjust from replacement rate. Therefore, Everidge would only be worth a quarter of a win above replacement as the A's DH next year. Personally I would prefer the extra 2.25 wins next year, especially if we are going to compete.

You would think that was all of the foolish thoughts that could be plugged into one blog entry but here comes the caper:

... I just checked out a few of the acronym stats I don't understand in an effort to be a better-informed baseball writer, but I gave up upon seeing that Mark Teixeira is considered a defensive negative according to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating). Anyone who thinks Teixeira is anything less than a godsend for the Yanks defensively is spending way too much time VORPing and not nearly enough time WATCHING THE GAME.

On so many levels there are problems with this. What the hell is the point of having a fielding metric that shows that everything you already believe. First the metric says that Teixiera average fielder but not a bad one which is what Urban is implying. Teixeira is less than 1 run below average this year which is far below the level of significant in the metric. Second, while it showed Teixeira as a very good fielder last year you also have to look beyond one year samples. An average of three years is a much better way of looking at a players fielding stats. Third, the whole watch the game is a stupid generalization, especially since UZR numbers are derived from recording where every ball is hit and how hard it is hit… SOMETHING BIS DOES WHILE WATCHING THE GAME. Finally, it is likely that a couple of things happened because the sample of fielders is low and the fielding isn’t an abstract number it is compared to other fielders, it is likely that Teixiera is an averagish 1bman that got a bit of luck and the other players last year that he was compared to weren't as bad as a whole, for example you didn't have Giambi playing twice as many innings this year. Additionally, Mitchel Lightman has far more cogent and staty explanations that fangraphs complied than I do as to why Urban and the other people recently bagging on UZR, mostly don't understand the metric at all.

There are some great baseball writers in this country, but unfortunately for the newspaper industry and corporate media sites like ESPN and MLB.com, the vast majority of them are in places like AN, Fangraphs, Beyond the Boxscore, Minorleagueball, Joe Pozanski's site, BP and sites of their ilk. If you want me to read your sports page or look at anything beyond gameday on your website, please hire a writer who has some idea of what they are talking about. Unfortunately, this Big Urb blog entry shows that Mychael Urban rarely qualifies as such.

Post Signing Deadline DFA's Top 15 Prospect List

designatedforassignment — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 18:14:31 -0000

In a post signing deadline world I thought it would be nice to take a look at whats on the farm

Chris Carter RF/1b/DH In a word… Beast. His MLEs suggest that he would be put up a .758 OPS in the big leagues right now. I believe that he can stick as a average to -5 FRAA right fielder which makes him more valuable from a positional prospective and I think his bat will be better than Wallace, due to his light tower plus plus power, his superior walk rate, His defensive improvements at 1b are encouraging in case route running proves elusive. I could see him hitting .280/.370/.520 if everything works out or 40 BRAA. He has the highest upside in the system, and could be an truly elite player, though there is some risk that he won't be able to hit breaking balls in the bigs.
Adrian Cardenas 2b/3b Cardenas' tendency to struggle when promoted and then upon returning to the level dominating it, which seems to be reoccurring. In the past month, Cardenas has a roughly calculated wOBA of .386 compared to a .336 league wOBA. Lack of power projection turning into power in the box score is concerning but scouts say that he can hit .300 in his sleep so with his walk rate he becomes a very good player even without the power. If he hits close to .300, he is a excellent candidate to hit something like .300/.375/.400 in the bigs which is good for about 25 BRAA. His defense at third should be at least average once he learns the position. Essentially Cardenas isn't a bad bet to be a 4 WAR player once he gets settled in the bigs and could be up to a 5 WAR player. That is a very good prospect with the chance to be one of those extraordinarily valuable players who gets absolutely no street cred.
Brett Wallace 1b/3b/DH I don’t like putting him here and until his recent hot streak and Donaldson's slump, I had Donaldson in this position. Defensive concerns with Wallace trouble me as does his low walk rate and his lack of production this year with the bat until the last two weeks. Hopefully, the improved productions recently is a sign that Wallace was rushed all the way to AAA less than a year after he was drafted and has recently caught up. His walk rate is very concerning as a pro. During his junior year Wallace walked in 16.6% of his PAs in AAA it has been less than half that. Defensively Wallace at 3b i think is at least a -10 FRAA from UZR. I expect him to have a bad range number but good double play runs and error runs since Wallace has a strong accurate arm. This would place his defensive comparable somewhere in the Ty Wiggington, Mark Teahen, and Josh Fields range. Putting up .280/.340/.480 line would give him about a .380 wOBA or about 25 BRAA. Defense would probably take away 7.5 to 10 runs fielding projecting him to be a 3.5 WAR player.
Josh Donaldson C/3b I am a big believer in Josh Donaldson. If his defense was a little better, or if he hadn't decided to hit for a .445 OPS clip over the last two weeks he would be second on my list and right now he is still right on the border. 74BB to 75Ks on the year is very very impressive and allows him to be a very very very good baseball player. If he hits .270 in the bigs and maintains his even a decreased walk rate so that he has a .350 OBA and has only a .100 ISO (which is significantly bellow every career ISO he has had) he is going to be worth about +11 BRAA, which should more than make up for his bad defense at catcher making him almost a 3.5 WAR player. If he is forced to move back to his college position at third base he won't get the positional bump but he should be able to provide league average defense there since reports were that he was a good fielder in college. That way he loses 10 positional runs but gains +10 FRAA making the switch likely to have a negligible effect on his value. He is slightly lower than Wallace because he has more risk.
Jemile Weeks 2b Ridiculously hot start, slump, promotion, improvement after the slump is an interesting progression. Reports of his defense have been significantly better than advertised coming out of Miami which increases his value significantly and will allow him to stay at 2b. I am not as sold on his ability to hit for average as Cardenas, but he does share the excellent walk rate. I see him as a .270/.350/.385 type player with a bunch of steals if he peaks right, which is certainly valuable. One of the reasons why he is at #5 is that he relies on plus speed and has had a history of leg injuries both at Miami with his hamstrings and last year with the A's hurting his hip, which adds additional risk.
Aaron Cunningham LF I’m not that high on him but will have a MLB career which is very valuable. I expect him to be about a 2.5 WAR player as his good defense will cancel out most of the positional adjustment and he will have a slightly more than league average bat. I think his risk of flame out is low which is why he holds this position without much upside.
Corey Brown CF Was progressing very nicely before the injuries. His ability to hit for power and play good CF defense. Brown could hit .260/.320/.480 or about 20 BRAA if he is able to carry forward the progress he has made cutting down the strikeouts. That coupled with strong defense in center makes him could make him a good player going forward. That being said Brown presents a ton of risk and is kind of the opposite of Cunningham in a way. Cunningham doesn't have a high ceiling but is going to have a hard time being terrible where as Corey Brown has a great chance of being terrible and a pretty good chance of being awesome coupled with a terrible chance of being ok. That may be convoluted but thats why hes down in the seven spot rather than up around 3.
Grant Green SS Being a good SS prospect is very valuable, but far too many questions to be any higher on the list without pro data looks like he could be slightly below average with the glove, average with the bat and a 2.5 WAR SS. Scouts like him more than I do, which is a large part of the placement here.
Anthony Capra P Not that high on him but at this point in the list everybody has some warts. A 13 K/9 makes up for the 4.6 BB/9. He has a plus change up that has become his strikeout pitch with an average fastball and an above average curve. Early college use as a reliever and an appendectomy kept college mileage to a minimum on his arm and he is through the injury nexus which increases his chances of being healthy going forward.
Sean Doolittle RF/1b was having an under rated year before the knee problem but should return strong. Doolittle is close to the majors which is a huge asset as is his defense which should be plus at two positions. That plus a league average bat should be a 2 WAR ML as early as mid season next year with the potential to do more.
Grant Desme RF Too many injuries and K’s but is destroying baseballs. I am not worried about his age as much as I am worried that health is a repeatable skill and Desme hasn't shown it so far. That coupled with his seeming inability to hit breaking balls pushes him out of the top ten but he has a ton of potential. Much like Corey Brown without the CF defense or the success in AA.
Max Stassi C Has the tools to be an above average backstop with both the bat and the glove but high school catchers are usually terrible draft investments. Scouts have compared him to Craig Biggio if he would have stuck at catcher, which I think is a little much, and that it is very very unlikely that Stassi ever produces a .400 wOBA. However, average catching defense and an league average bat makes a catcher a more than a 3.2 WAR player. The risk of bat or defensive failure put him at this position.
James Simmons P Will play in the MLB which is very valuable in a prospect even with a Meh ceiling. A Aaron Cunningham like prospect but as a pitcher there is significantly more risk of arm problems and unlike Cunningham who has excelled at every level of play so far, Simmons down year is concerning for someone whose biggest virtue is their near lock on being a back of the rotation starter and keeping you from spending tons of money on the back of the rotation filler of the world.
Michael Ynoa P "Historic" level of talent is always good but when you couple that with the lack of MLB success that the big time Latin American bonus babies have had plus injury nexus which he is already suffering from makes me worried.
Henry Rodriguez P Electric stuff but with a lack of control. Henriguez destined for the bullpen which will limit his value. Even good relievers are fairly fungible so while Henry may wind up a excellent power arm in the pen the

Notes From My Lying Eyes

designatedforassignment — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 06:22:46 -0000

I was the recipient of sf drift king's generosity which allowed me to attend my third A's game of the year, so part of this post is to thank him. Like every other game that I've been to in person this year, the A's lost but at least managed to do so in some interesting ways. Now my opinion of lay scouting should be well known around these parts; I hate it. So take everything that I have to say with a big ol bag of that fancy sea salt that you can find at gourmet cooking stores, you know the kind that costs like 30 bucks a bag. That doesn't mean that going to the game and watching things on your own doesn't allow you to pick up on some things that the radio or gameday miss. I thought I would share some tidbits from my time tonight in section 126.

Adam Kennedy did not play well defensively. His poor throw on a double play ball cost Anderson 2 runs in the first inning. He let another routine grounder bounce off of his chest before recovering and making the throw in time. A third grounder Kennedy almost made a nifty play on in the 5-6 hole but didn't have the range for it playing "no doubles" defense and guarding the line. He might have made the play if he went diagonally back on the ball instead of laterally. It was a tough play, but one I think a good 3baseman makes. Bringing Kennedy back had been a subject of some debate around here. If my observations are correct over a larger sample than 1 game put me in the against column. Especially with likely carrying two first basemen, it is hard to justify having a utility infielder who cannot play SS, but it is impossible to justify having one that won't hit and can't field at 3b. Granted UZR in an too small to make any firm judgement suggest tonight was a fluke, so hearing other's impressions of Kennedy's defense at third would be interesting.
Ryan Sweeney doesn't hustle, and therefore I hate him. If you are getting paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to play professional baseball and you can't hustle you can go to hell. Having already been benched once this year for not running plays out, Sweeney failed to run hard several times. Sweeney didn't run hard on his second inning single when doing so would have allowed him to take second on Quentin's bobble and prevent him from being erased in a double play grounder by Everidge. Sweeney didn't run hard on a fly ball that Quentin dropped which forced him to kick it into second gear to get to second rather than giving him the potential to get to third. Sweeney didn't run hard retrieving Beckham's double. The rest of the night he ran noticeably harder and he really smoked that double.
Geren made very poor tactical decisions tonight. Why when you have Contreras on the ropes having scored five runs in the inning are you having Pennington try to steal second with only one out remaining in the inning? Its a terrible idea and one of those times where running into outs tremendously helps a pitcher who is struggling. Assuming that Jack Cust is not hurt, what combination of drugs is necessary to believe that pinch hitting for Cust with Nomar Garciaparra is a good idea? Who thinks that having a 4.6% better chance to have a base runner in the last two innings of a tied game is important? Not Geren! This move was especially puzzeling when a home run likely wins it for you and Nomar only has two all year.
Hairston's approach was better than his walk rate with Oakland would suggest. I wasn't in a good balls and strikes position but he seemed choosey enough and but the ball on the bat well in all but his last PA. The surprising approach would suggest to me that he may be better than a .300 OBP which is a very very good thing.
Rajai Davis looked pretty lost at the plate tonight and was totally blown away by Jenks in his last at bat. Rajai was still loading his swing when Jenks' fastball was starting to bear down on him. I thought he would regress before tonight, this bit of data makes me more sure.
I wish the A's would steal the nacho cart from the OF seats in Anahiem. 8 dollar excellent nachos with really good meat, salsa, beans, jalapeños, sour cream and guac in addition to processed cheese beat crappy small A's nachos any day.
Brett Anderson didn't seem to have the zip on his pitches that he did the previous times I've seen him pitch. This suggests to me that he needs to be sent down to save service time and shut down. If we send him down now he would be right now and brought him up for September call ups he would be around the point of keeping him an extra year with control. I believe that way if we name him the 5th starter next year we can keep him in the minors 4 days or what not to save that extra year.

There you have it what I saw at the game tonight. Thanks sf drift king for the tickets it was super awesome to get to go.