SB Nation User Blog: devil_fingers

A small Tweet Cloud of my brilliant contributions so far... I wonder what I tweet about?

devil_fingers — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:12:52 -0000

A small Tweet Cloud of my brilliant contributions so far... I wonder what I tweet about?

CHONE's 2010 hitter projections are here!

devil_fingers — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 23:07:14 -0000

CHONE's 2010 hitter projections are here!

It's a wonderful time to be baseball nerd.

Transaction Report: Me

devil_fingers — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 01:16:46 -0000

I put off posting this longer than I should have, as I think on Fridays only 9 of my 23 regular readers come around, but I have a transaction to report, that might be even more thrilling than the Mark Teahen-for-Chris Getz-and-Josh Fields-Royals-White Sox-Utility-Man Blockbuster (did that even go through yet?). I don't want to make too big a deal out of this, but...

The brains behind FanGraphs.

As of Monday, I will be a regular contributor to ~~Cornell~~ FanGraphs (maybe you've heard of it?) on their analysis blog (under a different name, but it'll be easy enough to figure out). It's a great opportunity for me, and I appreciate the Daves (Appleman and Cameron, pictured left) bringing me on board. I mean, I'm assuming they haven't figured out exactly what kind of stuff I do yet. But, you know, I'm sure the Royals might have had misgivings the day after they signed Jose Guillen, but by then it was too late.

Neither FanGraphs nor Driveline are "exclusive," meaning that if I wanted to, I could keep writing the same amount for both. However, I'm already probably spending ~~more~~ about as much time as I should on this hobby, and real life recently got more complicated (and fun) with the arrival of B.L.F. I thought about it for a while, but finally decided that FanGraphs would be the best move for me. So I won't be a regular poster here any more.

Kyle Boddy lures a young blogger-wannabe into a life of nerdy dissipation.

It was a tough decision. Kyle basically found me hanging out on the corner, handing out trivial sabermetric analyses and bitching about trades to anyone who was bored enough to listen. He let me basically do whatever I wanted. My first "real" post here in January was something I'd been kicking around for a while (remember the days before UZR was freely available?), and I obviously couldn't say enough about it... I hope I've learned to keep things a bit more "efficient" since then. Since then, there have been some good and some not-as-good posts, but I've learned a great deal not just about baseball, but about blogging from this experience. I won't go through the highlights now -- this has gone on long enough as it is.

While I won't be posting here on a regular basis anymore, I will still be around here and other SBNation sites, and will sometimes have posts that I'll do here and elsewhere on "bigger" issues. I don't want to be the guy who's already graduated but keeps hanging around campus (alright alright alright), but I'll be around.

Final thank-yous:

Thanks to everyone who read my stuff here, especially those of you who linked to it. I appreciate the time it took. I hope that if any of you aren't FanGraphs regulars yet, you'll come by and check out my stuff there (you can also continue to follow me on Twitter). I know I'll be watching to see new developments here at Driveline as Kyle enters a new era in his business.

Big thanks to Kyle for giving me a shot basically out of nowhere and giving me pretty much complete freedom to write about anything I wanted. You the man.

Thanks to Royals Review, both various users there and especially Will, for putting up with my nonsense in FanPosts and comments there. No, I never "worked" there, I'm just some annoying guy who posted a lot. Without that forum, Kyle probably would never have been tricked into thinking I had something to say.

Thanks to Sky Kalkman for help and encouragement by email and Google Talk.

And thank you Dayton, just for being Dayton.

Ruining the World Series, Just Like A-Rod and Boras: Rays Trade Iwamura

devil_fingers — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:15:24 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Tampa Bay Ray' Akinori Iwamura watches his second-inning double off New York Yankees' A.J. Burnett in their baseball game against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in New York, Wednesday, May 6, 2009. He later talked to Alex Rodriguez about the best way to ruin the World Series even when not playing in it (AP Photo/Kathy Willens).

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You know, I kept my mouth shut when analyzing the Freddy Sanchez contract. But with reported trade of the Rays' Akinori Iwamura to the Pirates for Jesse Chavez, I can't keep it in any longer.

Think back a couple of years ago when the game of baseball was the victim of possibly one of the worst breaches of its sacred code since some guy didn't run out a ground ball. You all know what I'm talking about: when Incarnation of Evil Scott Boras and his Willing Servant Alex Rodriguez announced that A-Rod would be opting out of his contract. A-Rod is "finally" hitting in the playoffs, but his horrible legacy lives on. Have teams and players no respect for this, the pure, untainted-by-greed World Series, the holiest part of the baseball calender? Instead of talking about the important stuff like whether or not Cole Hamels has quit on his team, Jose Molina's game-calling skills, Nick Swisher's "slump," trying to figure out if this "Chase Utley" character who just came out of nowhere is any good, and psychological speculation about the Yankees reliving 2004, we're going to have non-stop discussion and dissection of these moves, which is exactly the lesson that A-Rod and Boras wanted to teach to narcissistic, irreverent, selfish jerks like Sanchez, Sabean, Friedman, and especially Iwamura and his agent Alan Nero, who obviously negotiated his contract conditions with the idea of ruining from the World Series.

I guess we'll just have to push through and try to enjoy what's left, in between the constant Aki Updates. I'm so mad, I'm not even going to try and analyze Jesse Chavez. You hear that, Iwamura, you attention-craving jerk? Your strategy worked. Even a bigwig like me is going to give ALL the attention to you.

Akinori "It's All About Aki" Iwamura

#1 / Second Base / Tampa Bay Rays

Height: 5-9

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Feb 09, 1979

Hitting: Iwamura was an above-average hitter in 2007 and 2009 (although he only got in 260 PAs during the latter), with a .338 wOBA (using FanGraph's data) during both, and was below average in 2008, with .323. Adjusting for age and regressing, he we'd estimate his skill to be a .329 wOBA hitter, or almost exactly average in this run environement, so 0 runs above/below average.

Fielding: There's a pretty big discrepancy here between the numbers and the fans when it comes to evaluating Iwamura's defense. In 2007, playing primarily 3B, Iwamura's UZR/150 was -0.2. In 2008 he made the switch to 2B, and had +1.6. This past season, he was almost completely average at 2B, with a -0.2. The Fans had a different opinion. According to my translations, the fans thought his skills for 2B warranted a +10.1 in 2007, +12.6 in 2008, and +3.4 in 2009. Overall, I estimate that is about 2.5 runs above average at 2B.

Putting it all together: Iwamura's had some injury problems and he isn't getting any younger, so we'll put him at 75% playing time. Average offense (+0) + 2.5 Fielding +2.5 Position Adjustment +25 AL Replacement Level = ~30 runs above replacement times 75% playing time = about 2.2 Wins Above Replacement.

Despite revealing himself as an obvious egomaniac and possibly a sociopath, Iwamura is probably an average player at worst, and is getting paid like a part-timer in 2010 ($4.25M). Some might think this trade is pointless at best for the Pirates, although as Dave Cameron notes, there's something to be said for a team like the Pirates just getting a good player at a good price. It's not like Chavez looks like much of a loss at this point. And, (to beat it into the ground) maybe the Pirates can turn Iwamura into Madison Bumgarner at the deadline next season!

As for the Rays, I guess their hand was forced by the contract (that's no excuse, though). While Iwamura was cheap for his expected performance, he wasn't going to start next year given the presence of the far superior (and much cheaper and younger) Ben Zobrist (not to mention guys like Sean Rodriguez and Willie Aybar who will be jostling for paying time). So the money can be better used elsewhere for them.

Plus, I bet Iwamura's a choker in the playoffs, just the player after whom he obviously models himself.

A New Era: Giants Extend Freddy Sanchez

devil_fingers — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:38:42 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

San Francisco Giants' new infielder Freddy Sanchez, right, answers questions regarding the Giants' research into a time machine that will take him back 4 years as manager Bruce Bochy smiles during a news conference at AT&T Park in San Francisco, Wednesday, July 29, 2009.

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I know there's a World Series going on and everything, but isn't anyone going to talk about the bigger news? That's right: Freddy Sanchez re-signed with the Giants for 2 years, $12 million, replacing his 2010 club option for $8M (with a $0.6M buyout) from his previous contract with the Pirates. Isn't this more interesting than reading about going on three days rest, Chase Utley, terrible managing, and OMG Derek Yeter is teh overated!!1111ONE?//?

Yes. Yes it is. (Okay, maybe not Utley)

Freddy Sanchez

#21 / Second Base / San Francisco Giants

Height: 5-10

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Dec 21, 1977

Offense: Remember when Freddy Sanchez won a batting title? Three things to keep in mind:

He's never come close to being that good again. Thus we have an near-paradigmatic lesson regarding BABIP and the the small-sample issues of one season in general.
His wOBA that season was .364, which is good, but low given what you would expect from guy hitting .344. In other words, he was batting average and pretty much nothing else on offense. So if the average goes... See point 1.
2006 was a long time ago.

Since the .364 in 2006, Sanchez had a still-decent .339 wOBA in 2007, then collaposed in 2008 with a .292, then "bounced back" to a merely below-average .322 this season between Pittsburgh and San Francisco. Adjusting for age and regressing to the mean, Sanchez projects as a .325 wOBA hitter, about 2.5 runs below average.

Fielding: Sanchez has a reputation as a good defensive 2B, but he actually played mostly 3B during his glorious 2006 season. I decided to give that a bit of weight, and along with his other numbers, have him regressed to having the skill of a +4 2B or so. In 2007, he had an +11.6 UZR/150 at 2B, in 2008 he was -1.8, and in 2009, he was +7.4. Despite his reputation, the Fans Scouting Report isn't as impressed once I translate it to runs. While the Fans have his skills rated at +4.7 (adjusted for 2B) in 2006, he was -0.7 in -0.7, -3.5 in 2008, and -0.6 in 2009. The Fans don't hate him, but there wasn't a lot of homerism, either. Overall, Sanchez projects as around a +1 defender at 2B.

Overall Value: -2.5 hitting + 1 fielding + 2.5 positional adjustment + 20 NL replacement level = 22 runs above replacement * 85% playing time = ~1.8 WAR player.

That doesn't seem like a terrible deal. If you assume the usual amount of annual attrition and $4.5M per marginal win, this deal seem about right. On the other hand, Sanchez is getting older, and has only played 150 games once in his career in (you guessed it) 2006. The deal is probably just right in line with the market. While it is isn't really a dumb deal considered in isolation (and someone with a greater knowledge of the GIants system can fill in the details about their internal options), it isn't particularly smart. It's average. Everyone loves finishing .500, right?

Who knows, maybe Sabean will try to flip him for a prospect at the deadline next season. I wonder what it would take to get a guy like Tim Alderson?

World Series Batting Order Optimizer: Philadelpha Phillies

devil_fingers — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 01:48:22 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley, right, arrives at Penn Station with his wife, Jen. He's leading off up the escalator, so I don't see why he can't lead off at a baseball game as part of the World series. Note the relatively modest use of product in his hair. Maybe playing the Yankees in New York brings it out of him.

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Game One of the 2009 World Series ended with the Phillies (mainly Cliff Le) dominating the Yankees in a complete game. The batting order for the Yankees didn't quite match what I recommended for them yesterday, but we hardly expected that, did we? The Phillies have some very good hitters, although not quite as good overall as the Yankees. There is a definiitely dividing line between the really good hitters (Utley, Howard, Werth) and the others. (But it's worth keeping in mind, well-known-on-line-"sabermetric"-analyst-who-shall-go-nameless, that most of the less skilled Philadelphia hitters justify their playing because of their excellent defense. Also, stop using VORP.) The heavily-left-leaning nature of the core of the Phillies offense also poses a challenge. But hey, there's the easy way, and then there's the cowboy way... And it's nice not to have a lousy lineup to optimize. So here we go, it's late and I want to get this done before the World Series ends.

I'll leave out the usual incredibly long methodological preface that is on the other posts (again, see yesterday's post if you want to read it all). And definitely make sure you look it over before you complain about something. Keep in mind that these projections aren't mine, they're the 2010 Bill James projections. Yes, they're a bit goofy (particularly for the Phillies), but they're the only completely set I have at the moment. They get the job done well enough. Before we get started adjusting for platoons and everything, here are the unadjusted Phillies projections. I've calculated the wOBA myself, and the baserunning (EqHAR from BP) and double-play rate projections are also crude homemade projections.

Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.332	.260	.344	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.399	.278	.372	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Chase Utley	2B	L	.380	.290	.384	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.304	.253	.296	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.349	.270	.340	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Jason Werth	RF	R	.371	.269	.369	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.337	.269	.339	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8

And away we go...

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. RHP w/DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Chase Utley	2B	L	.390	.290	.393	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.358	.270	.348	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Jason Werth	RF	R	.365	.269	.362	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.410	.278	.381	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.332	.269	.333	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.327	.260	.338	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.299	.253	.291	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: I'm sure you've noticed a crazy thing in there. But I stand by hitting Francisco in front of Ruiz. Of, what, it's not that? Utley hitting first seems crazy? Well, this whole thing is crazy. You want the best guys hitting #1, #2, and #4. However, as with other teams, all the Phillies best hitters vs. RHP are lefties, and you want to avoid stacking them so that the opposition can't leveraeg a lefty-reliever against them, as the Yankees did with Damaso Marte vs. Utley and Howard last night (obviously, it didn't decide the game). Also note that Chase Utley is good at everything. Maybe it will take a 2 HR performance against the Yankees in the World Serie for people to notice what a badass this guy has been and continues to be. He plays second base. He's one of the best (and possibly the best) defenders at that position in the majors, even after his offseason hip surgery. He's a great hitter. He's got a total greaseball hairdo. You knew all that. Did you also know that he stole 23 bases in the 2009 regular season without getting caught? Oh, he's also one of the best baserunners in the league overall, #2 in EqBRR between powerless speedsters like Michael Bourn and Rajai Davis this past season. Oh, and of all the players I ran the numbers on this past season, he is the best at avoiding the double play. Not bad for a guy who, to listen to some commentators, is a pretty good "sidekick" for Ryan Howard. Dude is so underrated he's raised some interesting questions. I'd say he's about as underrated as Carlos Beltran, except that Beltran gets more play (being in New York and one of Joe Posnanski's favorites doesn't hurt) and Utley has been the better player the last 4-5 season. Someone asked me last night on Twitter what it would take for Utley to finally win the NL MVP. I guess we'll see when Albert Pujols signs with the Royals in a couple of seasons... Anyway, where was I? Oh yeah. If I didn't worry so much about handedness, I'd probably hit Werth #1, then Utley-Ibanez-Howard or something. But I do worry about it. Hitting Chutley first minimizes his GDP skills and power, but since we ended up putting Victorino second because of handedness issues and Ibanez isn't as powerful as Werth and Howard, it does take advantage of Utley's skill on the bases. Werth has enough power to do well at cleanup and enough OBP to tackle the #4 spots frequent leadoff opportunities. Since neither he nor Ibanez are as good on the bases as Utley and VIctorino, having Howard behind them makes sense. Again, Howard #5 seems low, but #5 should be better than #3, and I needed to separate the lefties. Rollins offense has obviously declined, but he's not horrible, and #6 is a good spot for a guy who can steal bases in front of the weak hitters behind him who have trouble moving him over themselves.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. RHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Chase Utley	2B	L	.390	.290	.393	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Raul Ibanez	LF	L	.358	.270	.348	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Jason Werth	RF	R	.365	.269	.362	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.410	.278	.381	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.327	.260	.338	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Pitcher
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.299	.253	.291	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: Not much to add here. Remember that I could go either way on the pitcher thing... even a good-hitting pitcher is still usually worse than Pedro Feliz vs. RHP, although it's closer than you'd like. Basically I just took out Fransisco and put in the pitcher and moved Ruiz (not a bad hitter for a catcher) up. But let's talk about Rollins: He's not as good as he was (or he wasn't as good as we thought, depending on where you estimate his true talent in 2005-8 relative to now), but certain analysts have said that Rollins isn't the star he's made out to be. I don't know how you measure "starness," and I'll admit that I find JRoll's cockiness enjoyable. Still, just not being as good as Derek Jeter doesn't mean a player isn't good (and not that Jeter's the best SS in baseball, he's just an interesting comparison given the WS matchup). Moreover, how far is Rollins from Jeter, really? Sure, this season Jeter's about 5 wins better. But check it: FanGraphs has Jeter at about 26 WAR 2005-2009. Rollins is at a bit over 23 in the same period. That's pretty close to equal. Yes, it's true to say that Rollins is miscast as a leadoff hitter, but that doesn't mean he isn't (or hasn't been) an outstanding player, or even a star. It's weird how short- (and/or "narrow-") sighted people can be. Oh,. and one more thing on Utley power being "wasted" at leadoff: despite hitting #3, both his home runs last night were solo shots. Against a demonstration that batting order doesn't give as much control as we'd think, and why sometimes it's just better to give a good hitter (potentially) extra opportunities by moving him up than hoping he'll come up with runners on. And again OBP issues aside, putting guys like Rollins and Victorino in front of power hitters like Utley, Howard, and Werth neutralizes their speed, since they don't need to steal to get into position for these guys very often, and the power dimension of the good hitters also means that their advancement skills aren't leveraged properly, either -- Ryan Howard doesn't hit many singles that need a guy to book it from first to third.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. LHP w/DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jason Werth	RF	R	.389	.269	.389	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Chase Utley	2B	L	.360	.290	.366	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.353	.269	.357	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.378	.278	.354	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.348	.260	.362	.408	.148	0.3	0.7	-1.8
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.331	.270	.324	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.319	.253	.312	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: This seems a bit backward to me, too. Howard hitting cleanup vs. LHP but not RHP? Again, it's a function of a) getting the best hitters on top and alternating R/L guys, and b) a true estimate of platoon splits, as covered recently regarding Howard by MGL and more generally in my Book-inspired Platoon Splits Project (which I need to come back to after the season when I have the time to see how I did). Werth is projected to be the best hitter vs. LHP, so hitting him cleanup might have made sense, but then that mean putting Howard #2 or #1 in front of a relatively low-power RHH like Ben Francisco or Carlos Ruiz, and if there's one thing Howard doesn't do well, it's run the bases. I went back and forth on Utley vs. Werth in the #1 and #2 spots, but finally settled on Werth leading off because this puts Utley (the superior basestealer and baserunner) closer to the less powerful hitters like Francisco and Ruiz (and without estimating them specifically, Utley's platoon splits at a glance are pretty small). When all else fails, give the best hitters the most PAs. Ibanez projects as terrible vs. LHP according to these methods, but having Victorino and Rollins #6 and #7 (they could go in either order, really) gives good basestealers in front of him and the bad-even-with-the-platoon advantage Feliz, which, as I've noted many times, is a better use of their stealing abililty than putting them in front of Utley and Howard.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. LHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jason Werth	RF	R	.389	.269	.389	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Chase Utley	2B	L	.360	.290	.366	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.378	.278	.354	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.348	.260	.362	.408	.148	0.3	0.7	-1.8
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Raul Ibanez	LF	L	.331	.270	.324	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Pitcher
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.319	.253	.312	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: Yes, I do think (at least according to the James projections), that without the DH the Phillies shold be platooning Francisco and Ibanez, and that's without even taking defense and baserunning into account. But we aren't here to dispute who should be in the lineup, just how it should be ordered.This is prety much the same, except that without Francisco, I ended having to put Victorino in the #3 spot. I picked him over Ruize because a) the #5 hitter should be better than #3, and b) Ruiz has a problem with GDPs, and Victorino is good at avoiding them. Morever, Werth and (especially) Utley's skill on the bases can help Victorino out despite his lack of power, and Howard's skills are diminished vs. LHP, so Victorino's basestealing isn't as wasted. Rollins could arguably switch with Ruiz here, if you wanted to leverage his basestealing a bit more, but I like it the way it is.

So there it is. I know this I've made some controversial suggestions as far as batting order goes. Maybe I'm too dogmatic about splitting up lefties, but that's what I've gone with. It's fun to see the different ways of thinking about it, at least I hope it is for you guys. These things are a lot of work, but a lot of fun, so I hope people get a bit of entertainment out of it and aren't just irritated.

I can't wait to see Manuel lead off Utley tonight!

Not-So-Lousy Lineup Optimizer, Playoff Edition: New York Yankees

devil_fingers — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:25:18 -0000

Not-So-Lousy Lineup Optimizer, Playoff Edition: New York Yankees

Just in time for the series, I got this out. Tomorrow I'll write about the Phillies. See where Derek Jeter should hit vs. RHP. Hint: Not 1st.

World Series Batting Order Optimizer: New York Yankees

devil_fingers — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:37:32 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Jeter: I'm hitting WHERE at a baseball game? Girardi: (stares silently at a baseball game) A-Rod: (smugly) We're playing this late in the year at a baseball game WHY? I'm going to have to hook up with a second-rate actress who likes hanging out in a warmer place.

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So there's a big game tonight. CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee are facing off in a matchup destined to stab Cleveland fans in the fork with an eye for ages to come. And it's also a chance for me to write about something that, while I it doesn' t matter all that much -- 5 to 15 runs over a full season, so almost irrelevant in a 7 game series -- I obsess over constantly: batting order.

During the season, I had an occasional series called the Lousy Lineup Optimizer. Obviously, the two teams in the World Series have not-so-lousy lineups, and it was a fun chance to mess around with some batting orders full of great hitters. I'd meant to start yesterday, but these things take a while to put together to account for platoon splits, etc. I'll hopefully post on the Phillies tomorrow. Indeed, I'd wanted to do this for all the playoff teams, but 1) it was going to take too much time -- series would be over before I got all the teams posted; and 2) if there's anything we've learned from reading MGL's posts on the Book Blog, it's that you can't just use current season stats to judge a player's ability -- you need something like a projection. Earlier, I was using the ZiPS Rest of Season stats, but the season is over. My pseudo-Marcels spreadsheet was frustrating me. But then Acta Sports made the 2010 BIll James projections to be published in the 2010 Bill James Handbook (now available for pre-order!) available to SB Nation writers. I figure next season isn't that far off. I'm no posting these as "my" projections, but just using them to get an idea of the relative abiltiies of the players of each team for putting together a batting order.

Again, batting order doesn't matter all that much, but you'd think that teams in the World Series would want to maximize their chances any way they can. It's also interesting because they'll need for put together batting orders both with and without a DH. Let's see what the Yankees should do.

Lineup Optimization by The Book

If you've been following the Lousy Lineup Optimization series, you know what all this nonsense is about, so feel free to skim or skip all the way down the the batting order tables in the "Getting to the Point" section. If you aren't somewhat familiar with The Book's ideas on lineup optimization, it's at least worth skimming this section. The general principles are largely drawn from The Book, which is worth checking out on this and many other topics. Sky Kalkman gives a good, brief rundown in this article. While there is already good stuff out there, I like to do this kind of stuff for myself

Here are a few of the guidelines (with my own twists).

"It's all relative." Although this isn't directly stated in The Book or in any of the summaries I've seen, I think it's worth noting: the appropriate spot in the batting order for any particular player is relative. People talk about having a "true leadoff man" or a "#4 hitter" or that a player has a swing that's just perfect for hitting #2 or whatever. But the truth is, a player's "best" place in a lineup depends on his skills relative to the other players.
Where should the best hitter hit? The best five hitters (by wOBA or equivalent stat (e.g., not OPS) should be in the top five spots. Of those 5, generally, the best hitters will be in the #1, #2, and #4 spots. Ideally, of these three the hitter in the #1 spot will have the best OBP, the #4 hitter will have the most power, and the #2 hitter will be somewhere in between (relative to the #1 and #4 hitters). The best hitter will probably be in the #2 or #4 spot. The fourth and fifth best hitters will be in the #5 and #3 spots, respectively. Yes, you read that right: the #3 hitter's only advantage in run expectancy over #5 is in home runs. Of the top five spots, this is where you want your low-OBP slugger. As we'll see, platoon issues can make getting the best into the ## 1,2 and 4 slots tough, but getting them into the top 5 is pretty close.
The other half: In slots ##6-9, simply go in descending order of hitter quality, keeping in mind:
Platoon issues: Separating lefties takes a certain precedence, since this prevents the opposing team from leveraging LHPs against your lefties, who generally have bigger platoon splits. Moreover, given platoon splits (more on how these are generated in the next section), different batting orders against RHP and LHP are in order (har har). This also means that if your best hitters are lefties, they may not get into the "ideal" spots next to each other.
Can pinch hitting help? Note that in the chapter on platoons, the authors of The Book show that pinch hitting to gain the platoon advantage really doesn't solve this and other problems since the penalty pinch hitters suffer from the difficulty of hitting off of the bench offsets the platoon advantage they might gain.
Speed on the bases: Baserunning and basestealing are important, but are difficult to place, since often (but not always) the same players are good at both. In general, you want good baserunners (aside from stealing -- those good at taking the extra base, scoring from first on a double, etc.) in front of good contact hitters who can "move them over." Basestealers are best leveraged in front of poor hitters who have trouble moving them over. In both cases, if possible, avoid putting these players in front of high-power hitters, since this negates the advantage of those skills. So while your good baserunner might best be utilized at the top of the order (e.g., in front of a #2 hitter with moderate power), your best basestealer will likely be best utilized in further down the order in front of poor hitters -- say, in the #5 or #6 spot.
The Jim Rice Effect. Some spots have a greater odds of facing double play situations. The spot that sees the most DP situations is #3 by far, followed by #2. Therefore, try to avoid having high GDP players in those spots. The spot that sees the least (particularly in the NL) is the leadoff spot. So some times if you have an excellent hitter who also hits into a good number of DPs, even if he is slow, it might be worth it to move him into the leadoff spot.
Movin' on up: The "second leadoff hitter" theory has some validity -- having a #9 hitter who can "set the table" for the top of the order does increase run expectancy, so putting the worst hitter 8th sometimes helps. However, this worst hitter has to be really, really horrible in order for the advantage to obtain. In other words, in National League parks, hitting the pitcher 8th is the smart move according to The Book, although it is worth noting that Tom Tango wrote the chapter on lineups, and Mitchel Litchman (aka "MGL") is more circumspect regarding the value of the pitcher hitting 8th.
Remember that who is in the lineup is much more important that what order it goes in. So relax -- despite my nitpicking over two points of wOBA here and there, it really doesn' t matter that much. But it sure is fun to quibble...

Projected Stats, Sources, and Ground Rules for this Series

Who gets in? Again ultimately, who is in the lineup is more important than what order they go in. Having said that, in this occasional series my focus is opposite issue -- the order. So I'm generally going to accept whatever group of players the manager is throwing out there, whether I think it is the right group or not. I won't always get this right, since lineups change day-to-day depending on how players are feelings, how much acid reflux the manager had the night before, etc.
Where are those numbers coming from?, the basics: As I said above, I'm using the 2010 projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook for wOBA/AVG/OBP/SLG and SB/CS (prorated for ~150 games). The other numbers are explained elsewhere.
Who is the better hitter? From these stats, I will generate a wOBA (if it isn't done already, such as at FanGraphs) for each player. wOBA (weighted on-base average), for those who don't know, is the total offensive value stat that has taken the baseball internet by storm. Introduced by the authors of The Book and invented by Tom Tango, wOBA takes care of all the problems OPS had in terms of the weighting of OBP and SLG, doubles and home runs. It's roughly on an OBP scale, so something between .330-.340 is about average. For the version used at FanGraphs, .330 was about the MLB nonpitcher average in 2008. You can read more around the 'net, but in short: if one player has a better wOBA than another, he's a more productive hitter, period. wOBA for players can be found at FanGraphs and Stat Corner, for now, and probably more places as time moves on...
What about platoon splits? As The Book also explains (I'm telling you, you really should read it!), while each player has his own platoon split, it takes a lot longer than you would think to establish it -- it takes about 2,000 PAs against LHP for right-handed hitters to be able to say with some degree of confidence what their platoon split is -- so that's means only guys in the league a long time. For left-handed hitters, since there is more variability, it doesn't take as long -- about 1,000 PAs. Still, only veterans really get that far. Until then, most players should be assumed to have the league average platoon split. So, following the procedure used in by the authors for earlier years, I took the average wOBA and OBP splits for the 2005-2008 AL (it was easier to exclude pitchers that way) and applied them to each player. The only stats I will be adjusting this for are wOBA and OBP. BA, SLG, ISO are the generic ones, just to get a sense of the "kind" of hitter a guy is, obviously, those will change, too. but are harder to adjust for generically. In the "vs. RHP" and "vs. LHP" lineups, the wOBA and OBP figures are adjusted for league-average splits, and are thus italicized. [For more on estimating platoon skills, read this.]
What about Stolen Bases? I took the linear weights SB/CS runs projected by ZiPS before the season and prorated for ~600 PAs.
And baserunning? A bit more complicated... In the previous installments, I used Baseball Prospectus' EQBRR stats minus the stolen basees component. But I realized that what we're really looking here is just the runners ability to advance on hits, so starting with the Giants, I'm just using the EqHAR component. I did a primitive Marcels-type projection with them, without age adjustments, but with regression incorporating the Speed Score listed in the CHONE projections. Just to get a feel for the relative abilty of the baserunners, I projected runs values above/below average per 50 advancement opportunities. The listed numbers are projected baserunning runs above/below average per 600 PAs.
How about grounding into double plays? In short, the new Baseball Reference came out with information on GiDPs, opps, league averages and stuff. So I was able to do another pseudo-Marcel. The number listed is the GiDP runs above (avoided) or below (grounded into ) average per 600 PAs, normalized for the average number of opportunities seen over 600 PAs from 2005-2008.

Getting to the Point

Below are the raw, un-platooned stats from the 2010 Bill James projections for the Yankees with some other stuff. This isn't an any particular order. If it was up to me, Brett Gardner would start in center over Melky, but whatever. Remember, these aren't my projections, I'm just using them for convenience. Get mad at Bill James if you think this is unfair to Damon or whatever.

Player	Pos.		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.305	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.359	.309	.347	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.365	.317	.388	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.403	.294	.400	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.347	.278	.355	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Hideki Matsui	DH	L	.367	.282	.367	.475	.193	0.4	-0.3	1.0

So here we go... I'll start would with the "vs. LHP" lineups since the series is starting with the Yankees going against Cliff Lee.

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. LHP w/ DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.383	.317	.409	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.395	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Hideki Matsui	DH	L	.348	.282	.349	.475	.193	0.4	-0.3	1.0
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.422	.294	.421	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.340	.309	.330	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.329	.278	.338	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comments: It's pretty hard to put a bad batting order together with the Yankees. The main problem here was that in my "ideal" order, I had a bunch of lefties back-to-back at the bottom. Swisher really works well in the #3 spot, given his relative expected wOBA, his ability to avoid the DP, and home run frequency. However, then you end up with all lefties stacked up at the bottom of the order. To accomodate all that, I switched Matsui (surprisingly good at avoiding the DP last I updated) into the #3 spot. Most of my adjustments were made with these sorts of considerations -- with a powerful lineup like this, you don't worry to much about leveraging basestealers. Jeter leading off makes sense not only because he's a good hitter and baserunner, but beacause it also puts him in a position to see the fewest DP opportunities. Mark Teixeira hitting #2 might seem strange, but that's just because we're used to seeing sub-par hitters in that spot. He or A-Rod could switch, as A-Rod's baserunning might make sense in front of a contact hitter like Matsui. On the other hand, Teixeira is better at avoiding the DP, and the #2 spot sees them a bit more often. Also, the #4 spot leads off more innings. Damon at the bottom? Talk to Bill James. The Yanks can't use a DH every game, though, so...

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. LHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.383	.317	.409	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.395	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.422	.294	.421	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.340	.309	.330	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3
Pitcher	P
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.329	.278	.338	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comment: Very similar to above, with Matsui switched out, and Swisher getting into the #3 spot. This is really a "perfect: sort of lineup (you can put the pitcher #8 or #9 depending on how you feel about that issue) -- the top 5 hitters are in the top five spots, the worst DP guy is a good hitter who can lead off. You have the best three hitters 1,2, and 4, the 4th best hitter #5, and the 5th best #3, and the 5th best has a lot of home run power to maximize his more frequent 2 out opportunities. Tons of power in the middle of this lineup, as ##2-4 all have expected (before platoon!) ISOs over .200.

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. RHP, w/ DH
Player	Pos		*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.369	.309	.355	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.397	.294	.393	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Hideki Matsui	DH	L	.377	.282	.376	.475	.193	0.4	-0.3	1.0
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.405	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.359	.317	.381	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.356	.278	.364	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comments: Now this is a revisionary lineup! I personally find the "boy Derek Jeter is overrated I hate him so much A-Rod is so much better!" thing to be tired, even if certain sitcom writers still think it's clever. I guess my feeling at this point is "Duh." But this is just what the projections, platoon, and batting order principles spit out. Cano is a good hitter vs. RHP who also has GDP problems. I don't worry too much about his hitting with runners in scoring position (even if Steven Goldman seemingly can't stop mentioning it for some strange reason), but if you do worry about that, then hitting him #1 also takes care of that issue. Again, A-Rod and Teixeria could switch. I figured that Teixeira would have more power vs. RHP than A-Rod, so I put it this way, perhaps A-Rod's baserunning will be more useful in front of Matsui. It's a testament to the strength of the lineup that not only is Jeter hitting #7, but even against RHP, I have Damon hitting #8. And it works out, since Jeter and Damon's baserunning abilities are better leveraged in front of guys with less power like Melky and Cano than in front of power hitters like A-Rod, Tex, and Swisher.

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. RHP, no DH
Player	Pos		*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.369	.309	.355	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.397	.294	.393	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.405	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.359	.317	.381	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.356	.278	.364	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1
Pitcher	P
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comments: Once again, Matsui's absence allow Swisher's home run power to get into the #3 spot where it belongs. Other than that, not much of a difference here. I should mention than in all four batting orders, I strongly considered putting A-Rod first because the best hitter could be in #1, #2, or #4, he's a good baserunner, and he also has a bit of a GDP issue (although it's not like Jeter's).

So that's it! What are the odds Joe Girardi does something like this? Greater than the odds of Kate Hudson making a movie that isn't a crappy romantic comedy? Greater than the odds of Ken Tremendous not bitching about a bunt? I dunno. I do know that I like talking about this stuff even if (wait for it) ... it doesn't matter all that much. Tell me what I did wrong!

Watching Kapler is entirely captivating yet, at times, maddening. He plays the outfield and runs...

devil_fingers — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:30:08 -0000

Watching Kapler is entirely captivating yet, at times, maddening. He plays the outfield and runs the bases like a spider on LSD – which is to say he appears to have eight legs and lacks basic control of each.

R.J. Anderson. WS-related "LLO" post coming very soon. I promise.

"A-Rod is definitely a true Yankee now," said Greg Camello, 26, of Queens. "When he’s in a clutch s...

devil_fingers — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:53:15 -0000

"A-Rod is definitely a true Yankee now," said Greg Camello, 26, of Queens. "When he’s in a clutch situation now, he feels confident and raises his game to the next level. I think Derek Jeter is starting to rub off on him. Or maybe Kate Hudson. It definitely has nothing to do with the fact that he is a very good hitter in the midst of a very short stretch in which he happens to be batting well. He’s just different now."

The Brushback is awesome. Read the whole thing.