Unsurprisingly, from the 2009 season through this year's Tulsa game, the Oklahoma Sooners are undefeated (12-0) in games in which they have built at least a 10-point lead in the first quarter. They also own a 0.857 winning percentage when scoring first in a game (18-3).

However, when the opponent scores first, that drops to a paltry 0.333 winning percentage (2-4).

If you isolate just true road games, the splits are 2-0 when building a 10-point first quarter lead, 2-1 when scoring first, and 1-4 when the opponent scores first.

Simply put, some of the biggest eggs that the Sooners have laid on the road in the Landry Jones era have come when the Sooners let the other team get on the scoreboard first (flashback: Missouri running back the opening kickoff last season).

Continue reading this post »

I decided to take a closer look at the trends of the 2010 Oklahoma Sooners' goal line offense today. Kevin Wilson received a bit of criticism last year about his playcalling, and I think that dates back as far as the goal line failures against the Florida Gators in the 2008 BCS National Championship Game.

The question I decided to test was: Was there any relation between goal line success and run vs. pass selection in the 2010 Sooner offense?

Overall

By my count, the Sooners took 47 trips inside the opponent's 10 yard line last year. They snapped the ball in non-field goal situations in that 10-yard space 109 times for a total of 244 points. This breaks down to 2.3 downs per trip, 2.24 points per snap, and 5.2 points per trip.

Not counting the one trip that ended with the end of the football game, they failed to score on 7 of those trips (15.2%) and failed to score a touchdown (no scoring, or a field goal) on 14 trips (30.4%).

Overall, the Sooner playcallers dialed up run plays 64% of the time.

Variations

On the drives that ended in a touchdown, Oklahoma ran the ball at exactly the same rate as the overall rate: 64%. Therefore, the "unsuccessful drives" involved similar playcalling rates.

Change In Style?

In fact, it looks like towards the end of the season, Kevin Wilson attempted to mix up the goal line playcalling more, and the result was an increased rate of goal line failures. This change in philosophy seemed to occur around the Texas A&M game. Over the first 24 drives of the season that got inside the opponent's 10-yard line, only 3 of those could be considered "failures" - approximately 3 times less than the overall failure rate for the season. On those 24 trips, the offense ran the ball at a higher rate: 71%.

Over the last 23 trips inside the 10-yard line, 11 times the offense failed to score a touchdown (47.8%). On those particular trips, the offense ran the ball just 57% of the time.

71% of the time (10/14) that the offense simply lined up and pounded the ball - running it on every down - they scored a touchdown.

Summary

I have to say that this isn't what I was expecting to find. Normally I'm first in line to complain when the offense just lines up to run the ball at the goal line and doesn't mix it up.

I think we can all agree that not scoring a touchdown 30% of the time you get inside the 10-yard line is a bad thing, and something that is not the mark of a championship team.

What do you guys think?

Stoops today (h/t Jake Trotter):

"Expect defense to be significantly better from a year ago. D-line, d-ends much better than they've been billed to be."

As I'm sure a lot of you will remember, our defense wasn't an elite unit last year in terms of traditional statistical measures. They were 53rd in total defense (361.9 yd/gm) and 33rd in scoring defense (21.8 ppg). However, they were very opportunistic - 8th nationally in forced turnovers (32), 8th in sacks (37), and 3rd in tackles for loss (106).

How was a ball-hawking defense that was so good at making plays in the backfield coming up short in the traditional methods of ranking defenses?

Big plays.

The Sooners gave up 33 plays of over 30 yards from scrimmage last year, which was tied for 11th worst, and second worst in the Big 12 behind only Kansas State. In a lot of the big play statistics, they were giving up big plays at approximately 1.5 to 2 times the rate of the "elite defenses" in college football.

If you look at our two losses from last year, Texas A&M and Missouri picked up yardage in chunks on some critical scoring drives. The Aggies got 29% of their yardage in the game on two plays of over 30 yards (48,64). Missouri got 23% of their yardage in the other game on three plays of over 30 yards (35,38,39). And, this does not factor in the plays of 15-30 yards that aided scoring drives, as well as kickoff or punt returns.

If Stoops is right, I think the biggest gains on defense could be made by cutting down on the number of big plays that we give up.

In a word: awesome.

But, of course, you already knew that. However, there is now a bit of an objective rating that can shed a little light on just how awesome the Oklahoma Sooners played in their 2010 matchup against Florida State. Brian Fremeau of Football Outsiders recently published his list of best game performances of 2010 (offensive, defensive, and overall) using his FEI rating. The 47-17 victory was ranked as the 5th best game performance of any team during the college football season. Bravo, Sooners. Bravo.

What is FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index)?

It "quantifies the success rate of a team scoring while in possession of the ball and preventing scores while not in possession of the ball over the competitive course of a game." This discounts what occurs in garbage time, and then weights the results based on the quality of the opponent. Basically, it rewards you for playing well against good teams, and poorly against bad teams.

Will This Carry Over Into This Year?

Probably not. Although, it should be noted that both teams were projected to return 18 starters. Therefore, with the exception of a few players, this should be as close to a rematch as you can conceivably get in college football. One thing to note is that in both the FEI ratings, and the S&P ratings (uses play-by-play data), Florida State's defense was ranked no better than 32nd nationally, which possibly held back a team with a Top-10 offense statistically. This could have been due in part to adjustments to a new defensive scheme and a lot of young players. So, expect some improvement on that side of the ball from the Seminoles. The final thing to note is that the Seminoles will be breaking in a new quarterback, as Christian Ponder has moved on to the NFL to become teammates with Adrian Peterson. Likely starter EJ Manuel has some experience (attempted 199 passes), but according to the Tomahawk Nation writeup, he has a 4-9 TD-INT ratio in contested game action. I could be wrong, but I would be surprised to see the Florida State offense performing like the 8th best unit in the country with a new starter at the most critical position on the field.

Hopefully that's a nice little preview to get you a little more excited for the big showdown this September.

As the table above shows, there has not been a great "championship rate" for teams ranked at the top of the preseason Coaches Poll, as the Oklahoma Sooners are this season. Only one team in the last 9 years ended the season as the BCS National Champion, and that team had their championship vacated.

Between 2002 and 2006, however, every team that was the "Preseason #1" qualified for the BCS National Championship Game, certainly a notable accomplishment. From 2007 through now, that trend has reversed, despite two teams coming close (USC in 2007, and Florida in 2009). I think the reversal of this trend may have something to do with the widely held opinion that parity has increased in college football. Voters are therefore more likely to rank a team that is not a traditional powerhouse near the top of the polls in recent years. Put another way, if you are ranked #1 and you lose, there is an increasingly vast pool of teams that pollsters are willing to give a shot.

Matt Hinton at the Dr. Saturday blog nutshells the Sooners' ranking nicely:

With the right brand on the side of the helmet, a high-profile quarterback, 18 returning starters and a lopsided bowl win can still take you a long way.

The Sooners do have a fairly difficult schedule on paper with three games against preseason Top-10 teams, two of those on the road. Even though all those games are preceded by either an unranked opponent or a bye week, it's hard to ignore the road splits from 2010 for Landry Jones (167.36 passer rating at home, vs. 134.05 away from home; interceptions 2 to 10 respectively). He has yet to post a passer rating above 135 in a game against a ranked opponent away from home in two seasons, and has a 2-6 record as a starter in such games (although he won the most recent two, against Oklahoma St. and Nebraska).

With a pass heavy offense, it's pretty obvious the Sooners need to correct these trends if they want to have a shot at a title. Part of that responsibility lies with Landry. Part of it also lies with new offensive coordinators Josh Heupel and Jay Norvell, to put Landry in better positions to make plays than Kevin Wilson did in high-profile road games.

In case you're not sick of reading what relevant basketball people have to say about Kruger, I've got some stuff for you to read! From a Tulsa World article, here are a few esteemed coaches throwing in their two cents about Kruger after the hiring.

Tom Izzo, current coach of Michigan State:

"He’s a great recruiter, and very good defensively," Izzo said. "He’ll build that (program) real quick. So I think that was a very good hire for (the Sooners). I really do."

Tubby Smith, current coach of Minnesota:

"Lon’s an outstanding tactician, who knows the game inside and out," Smith said. "He’s won everywhere he’s been, he’s an excellent recruiter, a great coach and a great person. He’s a man of integrity and a man of principal. And he’s back in a conference that he’s familiar with as well."

Eddie Sutton, former coach of Oklahoma State:

"Lon’s moved around a lot and has always done very well," said former Oklahoma State coach and player Eddie Sutton. "He’s been in the Big Eight and Big 12 areas, so that helps. And I think his personality is such that he will fit in well with the University of Oklahoma people."

Like Sutton, Kruger is part of the coaching lineage of legendary former OSU coach Henry P. Iba. Kruger’s college coach at K-State was Jack Hartman, who played for Mr. Iba. "He’s from the Iba tree, so that means he believes in tough defense, taking care of the ball and playing hard," Sutton said.

Continue reading this post »

Well, it's finally official: Lon Kruger is the new head coach of the Oklahoma men's basketball team. An announcement was posted to the official website Friday night.

The man himself:

"I have lived in a lot of places, but I was raised in middle America and that has always been home for me. We never knew if the opportunity would present itself to get back there, but it did in this case, and it came at a great university."

You can read the dossier I put together on Kruger here.

More reaction here from Mountain West Connection, an SBN Blog.

What do you think of the decision to hire Lon Kruger? Vote in the poll below. More reactions after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Although we've been informed about three or four times this week that OU had their man, it looks like this time it's the real deal. Lon Kruger actually popped up on the radar before, but the reports were that he had rebuffed our offers. This time, it looks like Joe Castiglione managed to strike a deal, as Andy Katz of ESPN reports:

Oklahoma will name UNLV's Lon Kruger as its men's basketball coach, a source with direct knowledge of the situation told ESPN.com. Kruger and athletic director Joe Castiglione were negotiating through Friday with a deal to be announced. Oklahoma is waiting to make it official so as to respect UNLV and allow the Runnin' Rebels' players to be told of Kruger's departure.

So who exactly is Lon Kruger? He's a 58 year old basketball coach who born in Silver Lake, Kansas in the northeast part of the state. He has strong ties to Kansas State, as he played and coached there. As a player, he led the Wildcats to back-to-back Big 8 titles in 1972 and 1973, and was the conference player of the year in 1973 and 1974. Since then, he's had about 35 years of coaching experience - 6 as an assistant and 29 as a head coach.

Read the rest of the story for many more details!

Continue reading this post »

I've had it up to here with this coaching search. I'm sick of these coaching candidates jerking us around to get a bigger contract or an extension where they're at right now. 

We have one guy who has voiced an interest in the job, and he just happens to be an OU alum - Terry Evans. I was a little apprehensive at first because I don't think there's a vast history of coaches making successful jumps immediately from Division II to Division I. But you know what? The man wants the job, he has a vision, and he would be proud to be associated with OU.

Apparently Evans has interviewed with OU already, and it was a three hour interview so it wasn't just for show. 

Discuss.

As we mentioned last night, it appears Bruce Weber has become the front runner for the the Oklahoma job. There are varying degrees of legitimacy to this rumor depending on who you talk to. Generally the Oklahoma reporters tend to find the rumor more credible, with the Illinois reporters being more dismissive, and one going so far as to say it won't happen. 

This broke late last night, so today is the day people will be calling their insiders and digging up more info. So, I wouldn't be surprised to see a little bit more depth to the rumors today. For all that, you can discuss here.

You can also jump over to Hail To The Orange for the Illini perspective.

Update (130 AM): It looks like most of the traditional media outlets are reporting this as being in the mutual interest stage. A couple of commenters on some Sooner sites who know an insider have indicated that Weber looks to be the guy and that Birchell's tweet below is legit. However, it also bears mentioning that Weber himself texted that there was "no real story". Of course, if I read what Weber texted, it sounds an awful lot like he's just playing coy until all the ducks are in a row. Unlike the Kruger story earlier today, when Lon was asked, he point-blank said that he refused the job, which immediately indicates there's more to this story.

Once again, nothing official, but more than we've seen since Capel was fired.

This was a tweet from KSBI sportscaster Brian Birchell about 20 minutes ago (edit, this tweet was deleted):

Source close to the OU program tells me tonight Bruce Weber will be named the next OU head coach as early as Friday...

Originally, I was a bit skeptical. There was no information for days and days, and all of a sudden we have a for-sure hire? However, it looks like Dean Blevins is saying the same thing:

I was told ystrdy morn OU was hoping/planning 4 Fri press conf 2 name new coach. After striking out w/Buzz, appears 2 b BruceWeber, Illinois

Now, this obviously isn't official. However, this seems to be a bit more than the Painter to Mizzou rumors, where he was "considering" things for a bit. The information wasn't about Weber and OU having interest, it was about an official announcement on Friday.

We shall see how things pan out over the next 24 hours. For all we know this could be another dead end rumor, but this is the most solid rumor I've seen yet. If things get closer to confirmation, we'll give you the rundown on Weber.

For Illinois coverage, here's the SBN blog Hail To The Orange.

From the UNLV beat writer for the Las Vegas Sun (his Twitter account):

Sources just confirmed to me that Lon Kruger was contacted by #Oklahoma, but will not interview for the position. He is remaining at #UNLV

LK still has two years left on his deal at #UNLV. No extension coming right away, but expect one to be discussed/agreed to in the future.

So, to my knowledge, that's three programs that have reached out to Kruger and been told 'thanks, but no thanks': #Utah, #OU, #NCSU

He's in his late 50s, paid well/has a good thing going at #UNLV, made a ton of money during his NBA stint. No reason to take on a project.

Who should be the leading candidate now?

I understand that right now it feels like we're the last kid on the playground to get picked and we're worried if we're going to get in the game at all. However, silence doesn't necessarily mean that nobody wants the OU men's basketball job, it just means that Joe Castiglione is keeping a tight lid on the search.

We've already learned that Buzz Williams and OU had mutual interest, so there's at least one coach that's interested in the job. The issue with Buzz continues to be the buyout, and by all accounts it looks like he'll stay in Milwaukee. 

Because of the silence, people are throwing out all kinds of innuendo and rumor and maybe 15% of it is true. At this point everyone is just throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks. It's human nature. We want to know. I'm guilty of it too.

However, let me propose a few thoughts as to why this may be taking longer than what most of you wanted:

• Joe Castiglione felt like he rushed into the hiring decision with Jeff Capel, and doesn't want to make the same mistake twice. He wants to fully vet all the candidates and make sure that he makes the correct decision.
• Perhaps we are waiting for someone whose team is still playing.
• The Final Four is one of the biggest annual gathering spots for coaches around the country. If you're an athletic director and you want to have a chance to work your magic, it's the perfect time to do it.

Someone at OUHoops who seems to have a good dose of inside info, or a sense of what is going on, said that a lot of the names being thrown around are in the mix, but that Joe is just taking his time to make a good hire. Perhaps we should put a little more faith in our athletic director who has generally made excellent hires.