SBNation.com User Blog: dixieflatline

Farewell

dixieflatline — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 17:39:39 -0000

Not that I haven't been adding much to this fantastic site in the last few months.but, sadly, this is going to have to be my last post. I've taken a position with an AL team so no more blogging for me. I am confident that this will continue to be the best site for Brewers coverage on the web and KL in particular is doing some wondering things here. I will be looking in from time to time though so keep up the good work!

Another look at the bullpen competition

dixieflatline — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 14:37:03 -0000

I am coming way late to the party after much discussion about Eric Gagne yesterday but I really haven't posted anything of substance here for a while so I thought I would take this opportunity to do a rundown on most of the pitchers competing for the last few bullpen spots. Swindle, Stetter, DiFelice, Dillard, Gagne, Julio, and Coffey all pitched in the big leagues last year so not only can we look at things like their ERA, FIP, K/BB but also their PITCHf/x numbers (you knew I was going to go there right?). One of the things that I am going to talk a lot about is the upside for these pitchers. Most projections have the Brewers on the outside looking in at the playoffs so if two pitchers appear similar the one with the bigger upside probably should have the advantage because they are likely going to need some booms to make the playoffs.

Starting with the LOOGY competition between Stetter and Swindle. Stetter was up and down last year posting a nice 3.20 ERA but a FIP of 4.39 with 31 K's and 19 BB in 25.3 innings. That is a huge number of K's and walks which is a little odd looking at his minor league numbers. He is an incredibly interesting pitcher for a sinker/slider guy with nice bite to his slider and decent movement on his sinker. His movement chart shows almost two horizontal bands which is due to his side armed release which puts his release point somewhat off the page. In fact, he was in the top 5 widest release point last year. Because of his rather unique movement he grades out as the most unique sinker/slider guy in all of baseball. Swindle is his his 10th best comp but Stetter doesn't even show up on Swindle's comps. I like Stetter a lot as a LOOGY and I think he has a lot of upside. He gets a lot of ground balls and strikes out a lot of hitters which are excellent qualities in a LOOGY who likely will be coming in with men on base.

Swindle had a very limited time in the big leagues but pitched extremely well in AA/AAA. In fact, he pitched extremely well pretty much at every level and is a few years younger than Stetter. Even more than Stetter, Swindle throws pretty much side armed from the extreme side of the rubber towards first base. He had the widest release point of any pitcher last year almost completely off my chart. Swindle also is a sinker/slider guy who mixes in a change-up to RHB and a curve that he didn't really put on display for us. Because of his extreme release point everything Swindle throws moves in to a LHB which explains his incredible low FIP against lefties in his minor league career. Even better, his change-up looks like a real weapon against RHB. He pitched well against them in the minors though not like he did against lefties. He isn't going to get the same number of grounders as Stetter will but he probably will be more effective if the opposition pinch hits. His upside is also very high especially if his change-up improves.

On to the right handed relievers starting with Tim Dillard. Dillard pitched ok in the 14 innings he got in the big leagues and pitched ok in AAA last year though he didn't have a very strong K/BB ratio. Dillard mostly throws a two seamer around 93 MPH but occasionally will mix in a four seamer around 95 mph. He doesn't get a lot of sink with his sinker so he is closer to a guy like Fausto Carmona than Derek Lowe (though obviously not as good as either). Dillard's strike out pitch is his slider but that pitch really doesn't slide a lot so that is an issue. He also thows a change-up to lefties (almost every Brewer farmhand does these days) that has a good speed differential but not great deception with the movement. Because of his velocity with his fastballs he has some decent upside but less than Stetter or Swindle in my opinion. If he could get some real sink to his sinker he would be a much more effective pitcher.

DiFelice is a classic junkball pitcher. He throws his 87 mph fastball less than 15% of the time favoring a cutter and a slider as his main pitches. In fact 75% of his more than 300 pitches he threw in the big leagues were sliders. His slider also has little horizontal slide to it. Normally I would say that is a bad thing but if you are going to throw your slider so much to left handed batters it better not be moving down and in to them very much. DiFelice throws a circle change (schocker) and a curve to lefties but you have to wonder how effective these can be with such a low fastball percentage. DiFelice had a wonderful ERA and an excellent K/BB ratio in his very limited action though a rather mediocre FIP. Despite pitching well at AA and AAA the last few years DiFelice is 32 next year and you have to question if big league hitters would eventually catch on to a 82 mph slider with almost no horizontal movement. I think DiFelice is an ok choice for a bullpen spot but his upside is rather low.

Jorge Julio has been with six teams in the last three years and if you look at his performance it is easy to see why. While Julio can be effective for short spurts he hasn't been able to put it together for any real length of time. Why does Julio continue to get chances in the big leagues? The answer is rather simple, he throws his fastball at 95 mph on average. You just can't teach that. Stop me if you have heard this one before but his problem is control. You just can't walk as many hitters as Julio does especially in a close game. In addition there is an issue with his fastball, while he throws it at 95 he has below league average "rise" with the pitch. Pitchers who throw that fast like to work up in the zone but with poor rise this is a harder thing for Julio to do and get away with. This means he strikes out way fewer hitters than he should with that fastball. Also, he throws his fastball only about 50% of the time well below league average. If you have a 95 mph fastball throw the $%^& thing. His second comp is none other than Guillermo Mota and honestly I think that is a very good comparison. Despite a fast fastball Julio has pretty much proven he can't get MLB hitters out consistently and I would put his upside as low.

Todd Coffey had been a pretty reliable reliever for the Reds a few years back but the last two years he hasn't pitched well at all. Coffey has good control but doesn't really strike out enough batters to make him a really good pitcher. His fastball is around 93.5 mph and he throws it more than 70% of the time which is a plus. His off speed pitch is a slurvy slider with pretty good vertical movement but not exceptionally good movement. I suspect Coffey would pitch better than he did with the Reds the last two years but really be nothing more than a replacement level reliever with almost no upside. I'd love to have a guy like this stashed at AAA but I wouldn't really want to be forced to use him for any important innings.

Which brings us to Eric Gagne. I am certain I don't have to say much about how Gagne pitched last year he was very bad. He did get better as the year went on however and I think there might be a real explanation for this. Early in the year last year Gagne was throwing way too many change-ups when that pitch wasn't really very effective. By the end of the year however he appeared to get that under control and ended the year right around league average for fastball percent. His fastball is still decent around 92 mph but his change-up appears to have degraded. He doesn't even have an 8 mph speed differential with the pitch though he is getting some quality downward movement with it. His splitter actually appears to be a better pitch right now with the same downward movement and a bigger speed differential. His curve is a decent pitch too so if he would throw more splitters to RHB and curves to LHB and less change-ups in general he probably would be more effective. Id put his upside in the middle of the pack below Dillard, Stetter, and Swindle but above Coffey, Julio, and DiFelice.

With room for a LOOGY and two other pitchers I feel a bit obligated to rank these guys now. Despite having the least experience of any pitcher on the list I'd take Swindle first. He has proven everything he needs to prove in the minors and is ready for a job in the big leagues. I'd take Stetter next as it doesn't hurt have two lefties in the pen and, if used properly, they could be a very effective duo. In my opinion there is a drop off between those two and the next four. I think that replacement type numbers are about as good as we can expect from any of the four. If money is no object I'd go with Gagne and let Dillard get work in AAA because it definitely appears he could use regular work (he does have an option left correct?). It isn't that I think Gagne will pitch better than Dillard but given more time in AAA could really help Dillard I think. DiFelice would be an ok choice too as long as someone was left in AAA ready to come in if hitters start picking up his slider. I'd stay away from Coffey and definitely stay away from Julio unless injuries forced my hand.

First pitch fastballs to Brewers hitters

dixieflatline — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 16:49:28 -0000

Over at THT I wrote an article on first pitch fastballs and I wanted to share all the info on the Brewers hitters here. If any of the variables aren't clear you can check that article for all the details.

First	Last	Team	AB	FB	FB%	SD	Strike%	SD	Swing%	SD	SwingStrike%	SD	SwingBall%	SD	AVE	SD	SLG	SD
Russell	Branyan	Brewers	136.0	85.0	62.5	-0.7	42.4	-1.3	50.6	1.2	97.2	2.2	16.3	-0.2	0.667	3.2	1.000	2.3
Ryan	Braun	Brewers	617.0	386.0	62.6	-0.7	48.2	-0.2	37.0	-0.1	58.6	0.0	17.0	-0.1	0.326	0.0	0.609	0.4
Mike	Cameron	Brewers	476.0	317.0	66.6	-0.1	51.4	0.4	31.2	-0.6	49.7	-0.5	11.7	-0.7	0.433	1.0	1.033	2.4
Craig	Counsell	Brewers	286.0	211.0	73.8	1.0	51.2	0.4	26.5	-1.0	39.8	-1.1	12.6	-0.6	0.211	-1.1	0.316	-0.9
Ray	Durham	Brewers	400.0	286.0	71.5	0.6	42.7	-1.3	33.2	-0.4	52.5	-0.4	18.9	0.2	0.345	0.2	0.690	0.8
Prince	Fielder	Brewers	629.0	387.0	61.5	-0.8	35.4	-2.7	40.8	0.3	83.2	1.4	17.6	0.0	0.298	-0.3	0.579	0.3
Bill	Hall	Brewers	430.0	256.0	59.5	-1.1	52.3	0.6	36.7	-0.1	52.2	-0.4	19.7	0.2	0.393	0.6	0.571	0.2
J.J.	Hardy	Brewers	589.0	403.0	68.4	0.2	50.4	0.2	14.6	-2.1	23.6	-2.0	5.5	-1.4	0.292	-0.3	0.500	-0.1
Corey	Hart	Brewers	616.0	334.0	54.2	-1.9	56.6	1.4	57.2	1.8	77.8	1.1	30.3	1.5	0.338	0.1	0.554	0.2
Gabe	Kapler	Brewers	237.0	161.0	67.9	0.1	46.6	-0.5	23.6	-1.3	38.7	-1.2	10.5	-0.9	0.182	-1.4	0.182	-1.6
Jason	Kendall	Brewers	543.0	431.0	79.4	1.8	58.2	1.8	31.1	-0.6	43.8	-0.9	13.3	-0.5	0.283	-0.4	0.396	-0.6
Mike	Lamb	Brewers	249.0	176.0	70.7	0.5	46.6	-0.5	47.7	0.9	72.0	0.8	26.6	1.1	0.294	-0.3	0.412	-0.5
Rickie	Weeks	Brewers	518.0	298.0	57.5	-1.4	51.3	0.4	23.5	-1.3	39.2	-1.1	6.9	-1.3	0.087	-2.3	0.217	-1.4

Ok so a few words on each hitter.

Branyan saw less and less fastballs as the season went on but the ones he got he hammered. Basically every fastball in the zone he swung at and he wasn't horrible swinging at pitches outside the zone. It will be interesting to see how well he can keep this up next year with the M's.

Braun has been chided for not working the count but he really wan't flailing at too many fastballs out of the zone. In fact he even didn't swing all that much on fastballs in the zone. Pitchers were somewhat careful not throwing too many first pitch fastballs to Braun but when they did they threw more in the zone that I would have expected knowing his swinging ways.

For a guy who strikes out as much as Cameron does he sure doesn't swing too much at first pitch fastballs. For someone with Cameron's power he really isn't swinging much early. Pitchers appear to be aware of this throwing him almost league average fastballs and more for strikes than league average.

Counsell is exactly what you would expect for a middle infielder who lives by taking some walks. He doesn't swing often on first pitch fastballs and pitchers know this and are happy to throw him fastballs to start the at bat.

Durham too saw a lot of first pitch fastballs but far less than league average strike percentage. It appears that pitchers were expecting him to swing a lot at the balls but he was around league average. If that continues Durham will continue to get into decent hitting counts and that might prolong his career.

A lot of the talk about Fielder mid season was about how pitchers were working him differently compared to his 50 homer season the year before. One of the big differences was first pitch fastballs. Fielder saw less first pitch fastballs and way less fastballs for a strike than league average. Fielder did respond being at league average at not swinging at balls and swinging more than league average at the strikes. If Fielder can lay off some more of those first pitches out of the zone he is going to be even more dangerous.

Bill Hall is a very well known fastball hitter and got many few first pitch fastballs than league average. When pitchers did throw the fastball they were more likely to throw it in the zone and when they did do that Hall responded by hitting the ball well. Depending how much playing time Hall gets next year it will be interesting to see if he can lay off some of those first pitches out of the zone and keep hammering the ones in the zone.

J.J. Hardy produced some of the most shocking results of any player I looked at. Hardy who I certainly think of as a fastball hitter laid off first pitch fastballs especially the ones in the strike zone. Pitchers didn't seem to take advantage of this however throwing him almost exactly the league average number of first pitch fastballs. For a hitter that doesn't walk as much as Hardy I was surprised at how few times he would swing. He must want to see a few pitches and then pick one out he likes.

Hart was one of the most disappointing players I looked at. For a guy who spent a lot of time hitting behind Fielder and Braun he was way too willing to swing especially at pitches outside the zone. Swinging at 30% of fastballs outside the zone just isn't going to work. He needs to stop swinging at those and maybe he will get a few more hittable ones. I know Hart simply isn't going to ever walk enough but he has to stop swinging at balls out of the zone.

Kapler was one of the surprise stories for the Brewers last year and he really controlled the zone on the first pitch. While not having much success when he did swing just not swinging at balls is a huge step in the right direction. It should be interesting to see if he sees more fastballs with the Rays with him swinging so infrequently.

Kendall is the classic light hitting catcher seeing a huge number of first pitch fastballs and many of those for strikes. Kendall still swung less often than average and when he did make contact he didn't really do much with it not surprisingly. At least he drives the opposing pitcher's pitch count up.

I don't really have much to say about Lamb. He is on the list because he ended the year as a Brewer. He too swung way too much at fastballs out of the zone and I think his results speak for himself.

Rickie Weeks had just a dreadful season and it all started with the first pitch. Weeks saw very few fastballs and those that he did see he couldn't handle. The best thing I can say is he wasn't expanding the zone on the first pitch and pitchers threw him very few fastballs in the zone. That said, he needs to do much much better on hitting the fastballs he swings at. Rickie might not ever hit too breaking balls too much but if he can't hit the fastball he isn't ever going to make it.

Being Cole Hamels

dixieflatline — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 13:19:19 -0000

Lefty Cole Hamels gets the ball for the Phillies today in game one against the Brewers. Hamels is a very good pitcher who has some interesting quirks about him so I wanted to do a little previewing in preparation for the first playoff game for the Crew in quite some time.

First, let's look at Hamels movement chart. Like many lefties out there he only throws three pitches; four seam fastball, circle change, and a curveball. Here is a look at the movement he gets on these pitches.

Team	%Div	%WC	%Playoffs
Cubs	68.17	20.45	88.62
Brewers	26.47	39.50	65.97
Cardinals	4.71	16.65	21.36
Reds	0.45	0.60	1.05
Astros	0.20	0.60	0.80
Pirates	0.00	0.30	0.30

SBNation.com User Blog: dixieflatline

Farewell

Another look at the bullpen competition

First pitch fastballs to Brewers hitters

Being Cole Hamels

Manny being Manny (Parra, that is)

A look at the playoff roster, take one

More guess the Brewers fun

BCB interview: John Curtis

Charleston Trip Report

Zelous Wheeler

BCB Interview: Don Money (Part Two)

BCB Interview: Don Money (Part One)

BCB Interview: Cole Gillespie

General info from the Huntsville trip

So last week I had the good fortune of heading to Huntsville for a few days and watching the Star...

Dave Bush is a man of mystery

Is Rich Harden's arm falling off?

How much does the Sabathia trade help the Brewer's playoff chances?

Salomon Torres wear pattern

Gagne up, DiFelice down

Branyan to right and deep...

Can we just call him McNasty?

Slowey, Perkins, and Baker... Who are these guys?

A look at how our starters tire

More PITCHf/x goodies

Eric Gagne's Change from 2007 and 2008

A look at Ben Sheets fastball and curve from a side view

Question about Lincecum's slider

Are the Cardinals for real?

Breakdown of Capuano

Brewer walk totals