SB Nation User Blog: dixieflatline

Farewell

dixieflatline — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 17:39:39 -0000

Not that I haven't been adding much to this fantastic site in the last few months.but, sadly, this is going to have to be my last post. I've taken a position with an AL team so no more blogging for me. I am confident that this will continue to be the best site for Brewers coverage on the web and KL in particular is doing some wondering things here. I will be looking in from time to time though so keep up the good work!

Another look at the bullpen competition

dixieflatline — Fri, 20 Feb 2009 14:37:03 -0000

I am coming way late to the party after much discussion about Eric Gagne yesterday but I really haven't posted anything of substance here for a while so I thought I would take this opportunity to do a rundown on most of the pitchers competing for the last few bullpen spots. Swindle, Stetter, DiFelice, Dillard, Gagne, Julio, and Coffey all pitched in the big leagues last year so not only can we look at things like their ERA, FIP, K/BB but also their PITCHf/x numbers (you knew I was going to go there right?). One of the things that I am going to talk a lot about is the upside for these pitchers. Most projections have the Brewers on the outside looking in at the playoffs so if two pitchers appear similar the one with the bigger upside probably should have the advantage because they are likely going to need some booms to make the playoffs.

Starting with the LOOGY competition between Stetter and Swindle. Stetter was up and down last year posting a nice 3.20 ERA but a FIP of 4.39 with 31 K's and 19 BB in 25.3 innings. That is a huge number of K's and walks which is a little odd looking at his minor league numbers. He is an incredibly interesting pitcher for a sinker/slider guy with nice bite to his slider and decent movement on his sinker. His movement chart shows almost two horizontal bands which is due to his side armed release which puts his release point somewhat off the page. In fact, he was in the top 5 widest release point last year. Because of his rather unique movement he grades out as the most unique sinker/slider guy in all of baseball. Swindle is his his 10th best comp but Stetter doesn't even show up on Swindle's comps. I like Stetter a lot as a LOOGY and I think he has a lot of upside. He gets a lot of ground balls and strikes out a lot of hitters which are excellent qualities in a LOOGY who likely will be coming in with men on base.

Swindle had a very limited time in the big leagues but pitched extremely well in AA/AAA. In fact, he pitched extremely well pretty much at every level and is a few years younger than Stetter. Even more than Stetter, Swindle throws pretty much side armed from the extreme side of the rubber towards first base. He had the widest release point of any pitcher last year almost completely off my chart. Swindle also is a sinker/slider guy who mixes in a change-up to RHB and a curve that he didn't really put on display for us. Because of his extreme release point everything Swindle throws moves in to a LHB which explains his incredible low FIP against lefties in his minor league career. Even better, his change-up looks like a real weapon against RHB. He pitched well against them in the minors though not like he did against lefties. He isn't going to get the same number of grounders as Stetter will but he probably will be more effective if the opposition pinch hits. His upside is also very high especially if his change-up improves.

On to the right handed relievers starting with Tim Dillard. Dillard pitched ok in the 14 innings he got in the big leagues and pitched ok in AAA last year though he didn't have a very strong K/BB ratio. Dillard mostly throws a two seamer around 93 MPH but occasionally will mix in a four seamer around 95 mph. He doesn't get a lot of sink with his sinker so he is closer to a guy like Fausto Carmona than Derek Lowe (though obviously not as good as either). Dillard's strike out pitch is his slider but that pitch really doesn't slide a lot so that is an issue. He also thows a change-up to lefties (almost every Brewer farmhand does these days) that has a good speed differential but not great deception with the movement. Because of his velocity with his fastballs he has some decent upside but less than Stetter or Swindle in my opinion. If he could get some real sink to his sinker he would be a much more effective pitcher.

DiFelice is a classic junkball pitcher. He throws his 87 mph fastball less than 15% of the time favoring a cutter and a slider as his main pitches. In fact 75% of his more than 300 pitches he threw in the big leagues were sliders. His slider also has little horizontal slide to it. Normally I would say that is a bad thing but if you are going to throw your slider so much to left handed batters it better not be moving down and in to them very much. DiFelice throws a circle change (schocker) and a curve to lefties but you have to wonder how effective these can be with such a low fastball percentage. DiFelice had a wonderful ERA and an excellent K/BB ratio in his very limited action though a rather mediocre FIP. Despite pitching well at AA and AAA the last few years DiFelice is 32 next year and you have to question if big league hitters would eventually catch on to a 82 mph slider with almost no horizontal movement. I think DiFelice is an ok choice for a bullpen spot but his upside is rather low.

Jorge Julio has been with six teams in the last three years and if you look at his performance it is easy to see why. While Julio can be effective for short spurts he hasn't been able to put it together for any real length of time. Why does Julio continue to get chances in the big leagues? The answer is rather simple, he throws his fastball at 95 mph on average. You just can't teach that. Stop me if you have heard this one before but his problem is control. You just can't walk as many hitters as Julio does especially in a close game. In addition there is an issue with his fastball, while he throws it at 95 he has below league average "rise" with the pitch. Pitchers who throw that fast like to work up in the zone but with poor rise this is a harder thing for Julio to do and get away with. This means he strikes out way fewer hitters than he should with that fastball. Also, he throws his fastball only about 50% of the time well below league average. If you have a 95 mph fastball throw the $%^& thing. His second comp is none other than Guillermo Mota and honestly I think that is a very good comparison. Despite a fast fastball Julio has pretty much proven he can't get MLB hitters out consistently and I would put his upside as low.

Todd Coffey had been a pretty reliable reliever for the Reds a few years back but the last two years he hasn't pitched well at all. Coffey has good control but doesn't really strike out enough batters to make him a really good pitcher. His fastball is around 93.5 mph and he throws it more than 70% of the time which is a plus. His off speed pitch is a slurvy slider with pretty good vertical movement but not exceptionally good movement. I suspect Coffey would pitch better than he did with the Reds the last two years but really be nothing more than a replacement level reliever with almost no upside. I'd love to have a guy like this stashed at AAA but I wouldn't really want to be forced to use him for any important innings.

Which brings us to Eric Gagne. I am certain I don't have to say much about how Gagne pitched last year he was very bad. He did get better as the year went on however and I think there might be a real explanation for this. Early in the year last year Gagne was throwing way too many change-ups when that pitch wasn't really very effective. By the end of the year however he appeared to get that under control and ended the year right around league average for fastball percent. His fastball is still decent around 92 mph but his change-up appears to have degraded. He doesn't even have an 8 mph speed differential with the pitch though he is getting some quality downward movement with it. His splitter actually appears to be a better pitch right now with the same downward movement and a bigger speed differential. His curve is a decent pitch too so if he would throw more splitters to RHB and curves to LHB and less change-ups in general he probably would be more effective. Id put his upside in the middle of the pack below Dillard, Stetter, and Swindle but above Coffey, Julio, and DiFelice.

With room for a LOOGY and two other pitchers I feel a bit obligated to rank these guys now. Despite having the least experience of any pitcher on the list I'd take Swindle first. He has proven everything he needs to prove in the minors and is ready for a job in the big leagues. I'd take Stetter next as it doesn't hurt have two lefties in the pen and, if used properly, they could be a very effective duo. In my opinion there is a drop off between those two and the next four. I think that replacement type numbers are about as good as we can expect from any of the four. If money is no object I'd go with Gagne and let Dillard get work in AAA because it definitely appears he could use regular work (he does have an option left correct?). It isn't that I think Gagne will pitch better than Dillard but given more time in AAA could really help Dillard I think. DiFelice would be an ok choice too as long as someone was left in AAA ready to come in if hitters start picking up his slider. I'd stay away from Coffey and definitely stay away from Julio unless injuries forced my hand.

First pitch fastballs to Brewers hitters

dixieflatline — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 16:49:28 -0000

Over at THT I wrote an article on first pitch fastballs and I wanted to share all the info on the Brewers hitters here. If any of the variables aren't clear you can check that article for all the details.

First	Last	Team	AB	FB	FB%	SD	Strike%	SD	Swing%	SD	SwingStrike%	SD	SwingBall%	SD	AVE	SD	SLG	SD
Russell	Branyan	Brewers	136.0	85.0	62.5	-0.7	42.4	-1.3	50.6	1.2	97.2	2.2	16.3	-0.2	0.667	3.2	1.000	2.3
Ryan	Braun	Brewers	617.0	386.0	62.6	-0.7	48.2	-0.2	37.0	-0.1	58.6	0.0	17.0	-0.1	0.326	0.0	0.609	0.4
Mike	Cameron	Brewers	476.0	317.0	66.6	-0.1	51.4	0.4	31.2	-0.6	49.7	-0.5	11.7	-0.7	0.433	1.0	1.033	2.4
Craig	Counsell	Brewers	286.0	211.0	73.8	1.0	51.2	0.4	26.5	-1.0	39.8	-1.1	12.6	-0.6	0.211	-1.1	0.316	-0.9
Ray	Durham	Brewers	400.0	286.0	71.5	0.6	42.7	-1.3	33.2	-0.4	52.5	-0.4	18.9	0.2	0.345	0.2	0.690	0.8
Prince	Fielder	Brewers	629.0	387.0	61.5	-0.8	35.4	-2.7	40.8	0.3	83.2	1.4	17.6	0.0	0.298	-0.3	0.579	0.3
Bill	Hall	Brewers	430.0	256.0	59.5	-1.1	52.3	0.6	36.7	-0.1	52.2	-0.4	19.7	0.2	0.393	0.6	0.571	0.2
J.J.	Hardy	Brewers	589.0	403.0	68.4	0.2	50.4	0.2	14.6	-2.1	23.6	-2.0	5.5	-1.4	0.292	-0.3	0.500	-0.1
Corey	Hart	Brewers	616.0	334.0	54.2	-1.9	56.6	1.4	57.2	1.8	77.8	1.1	30.3	1.5	0.338	0.1	0.554	0.2
Gabe	Kapler	Brewers	237.0	161.0	67.9	0.1	46.6	-0.5	23.6	-1.3	38.7	-1.2	10.5	-0.9	0.182	-1.4	0.182	-1.6
Jason	Kendall	Brewers	543.0	431.0	79.4	1.8	58.2	1.8	31.1	-0.6	43.8	-0.9	13.3	-0.5	0.283	-0.4	0.396	-0.6
Mike	Lamb	Brewers	249.0	176.0	70.7	0.5	46.6	-0.5	47.7	0.9	72.0	0.8	26.6	1.1	0.294	-0.3	0.412	-0.5
Rickie	Weeks	Brewers	518.0	298.0	57.5	-1.4	51.3	0.4	23.5	-1.3	39.2	-1.1	6.9	-1.3	0.087	-2.3	0.217	-1.4

Ok so a few words on each hitter.

Branyan saw less and less fastballs as the season went on but the ones he got he hammered. Basically every fastball in the zone he swung at and he wasn't horrible swinging at pitches outside the zone. It will be interesting to see how well he can keep this up next year with the M's.

Braun has been chided for not working the count but he really wan't flailing at too many fastballs out of the zone. In fact he even didn't swing all that much on fastballs in the zone. Pitchers were somewhat careful not throwing too many first pitch fastballs to Braun but when they did they threw more in the zone that I would have expected knowing his swinging ways.

For a guy who strikes out as much as Cameron does he sure doesn't swing too much at first pitch fastballs. For someone with Cameron's power he really isn't swinging much early. Pitchers appear to be aware of this throwing him almost league average fastballs and more for strikes than league average.

Counsell is exactly what you would expect for a middle infielder who lives by taking some walks. He doesn't swing often on first pitch fastballs and pitchers know this and are happy to throw him fastballs to start the at bat.

Durham too saw a lot of first pitch fastballs but far less than league average strike percentage. It appears that pitchers were expecting him to swing a lot at the balls but he was around league average. If that continues Durham will continue to get into decent hitting counts and that might prolong his career.

A lot of the talk about Fielder mid season was about how pitchers were working him differently compared to his 50 homer season the year before. One of the big differences was first pitch fastballs. Fielder saw less first pitch fastballs and way less fastballs for a strike than league average. Fielder did respond being at league average at not swinging at balls and swinging more than league average at the strikes. If Fielder can lay off some more of those first pitches out of the zone he is going to be even more dangerous.

Bill Hall is a very well known fastball hitter and got many few first pitch fastballs than league average. When pitchers did throw the fastball they were more likely to throw it in the zone and when they did do that Hall responded by hitting the ball well. Depending how much playing time Hall gets next year it will be interesting to see if he can lay off some of those first pitches out of the zone and keep hammering the ones in the zone.

J.J. Hardy produced some of the most shocking results of any player I looked at. Hardy who I certainly think of as a fastball hitter laid off first pitch fastballs especially the ones in the strike zone. Pitchers didn't seem to take advantage of this however throwing him almost exactly the league average number of first pitch fastballs. For a hitter that doesn't walk as much as Hardy I was surprised at how few times he would swing. He must want to see a few pitches and then pick one out he likes.

Hart was one of the most disappointing players I looked at. For a guy who spent a lot of time hitting behind Fielder and Braun he was way too willing to swing especially at pitches outside the zone. Swinging at 30% of fastballs outside the zone just isn't going to work. He needs to stop swinging at those and maybe he will get a few more hittable ones. I know Hart simply isn't going to ever walk enough but he has to stop swinging at balls out of the zone.

Kapler was one of the surprise stories for the Brewers last year and he really controlled the zone on the first pitch. While not having much success when he did swing just not swinging at balls is a huge step in the right direction. It should be interesting to see if he sees more fastballs with the Rays with him swinging so infrequently.

Kendall is the classic light hitting catcher seeing a huge number of first pitch fastballs and many of those for strikes. Kendall still swung less often than average and when he did make contact he didn't really do much with it not surprisingly. At least he drives the opposing pitcher's pitch count up.

I don't really have much to say about Lamb. He is on the list because he ended the year as a Brewer. He too swung way too much at fastballs out of the zone and I think his results speak for himself.

Rickie Weeks had just a dreadful season and it all started with the first pitch. Weeks saw very few fastballs and those that he did see he couldn't handle. The best thing I can say is he wasn't expanding the zone on the first pitch and pitchers threw him very few fastballs in the zone. That said, he needs to do much much better on hitting the fastballs he swings at. Rickie might not ever hit too breaking balls too much but if he can't hit the fastball he isn't ever going to make it.

Being Cole Hamels

dixieflatline — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 13:19:19 -0000

Lefty Cole Hamels gets the ball for the Phillies today in game one against the Brewers. Hamels is a very good pitcher who has some interesting quirks about him so I wanted to do a little previewing in preparation for the first playoff game for the Crew in quite some time.

First, let's look at Hamels movement chart. Like many lefties out there he only throws three pitches; four seam fastball, circle change, and a curveball. Here is a look at the movement he gets on these pitches.

via baseball.bornbybits.com

Starting with the fastball we can see just how over the top Hamels throws. He gets very large vertical movement and next to no horizontal movement. He does throw his fastball at about 91 MPH which is good for a lefty but this is definitely a show pitch. He doesn't want to challenge hitters with it he wants to show them the fastball to get them out with his off speed stuff or have them chase a fastball out of the zone. This usually is up out of the zone but he can bust this pitch in to right handed batters because of the small horizontal movement. Fastballs up in the zone have been a problem for several of our big bats this year (I'm looking at you Prince and JJ) so laying off the high fastball will be a big key.

Hamels of course is known for his change-up and with PITCHf/x you can see why. He has nice tailing action down and away from a right handed batter and he throws this pitch ten MPH slower than his fastball. That is an excellent speed differential and allows him to fool hitters with it even in hitters counts. More than any other pitcher, Hamels will throw his change-up when he is behind in the count: 43% on 1-0, 44% on 2-0, and 47% on 3-1. He throws this pitch so much that I would go up looking for the change-up on 1-0 in particular. If you don't get it and he gets a fastball by you the count is still 1-1 at worst and then he is more likely to come back with a fastball.

This also applies to Fielder as Hamels throws his change-up to lefties almost as much as righties. That is extremely unusual as a lefty-lefty change-up tends to end up as a 80 MPH pitch middle in near the knees. This is the happy zone for many lefties and while Fielder seems to be a bit better when he can get his arms fully extended he certainly can hit a ball like that a long way. So guess change-up when Hamels falls behind and you might be rewarded.

The last of the three pitches to look at is the curveball. Because Hamels throws over the top you would expect his curve to be very 12 to 6 and indeed that is exactly what you see. In fact, many of Hamels curves go past horizontal and actually move away from a right handed hitter! This is one of the most extreme 12 to 6 curves any pitcher throws and I am generally a big fan of curves like this. The problem is Hamels generates very little vertical drop with the pitch considering how over the top it is and how slowly he throws it (around 75 MPH).

For comparison, Ben Sheets gets more vertical drop and he throws his curve about five MPH faster than Hamels does so it has less time in the air to drop. Hamels' curve still is effective because of the large vertical "rise" he gets with the fastball which creates a large separation between the two pitches even if the curve doesn't have great drop. Hamels also hides his curve well because it stays in the same horizontal plane as his fastball.

Hamels uses his curve almost exclusively for strikeouts though he will occasionally throw a get me over curve to start an at bat. Even in these two strike situations he uses his his fastball and his change-up more frequently so it is extremely difficult for a batter to adjust when the curve does come.

In conclusion, Cole Hamels has some very nasty stuff but it isn't as overpowering as what Manny Parra brings to the table. That means that Hamels has to be smart and hit his corners. If the umpire isn't giving the outside corner especially and Hamels is forced to come in he definitely can be had. Guessing change-up in hitters counts might also be fruitful especially with a couple of runners on base in the bandbox that Citizens Bank Park is.

Profiling Tim Lincecum

dixieflatline — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:15:57 -0000

While profiling CC Sabathia early this week, I mentioned that Sabathia recently overtook Tim Lincecum as the pitcher who has accrued the most pitcher abuse points this season (which Lincecum has now taken back after his last start). I concluded that Sabathia really didn't seem phased by a lot of innings or some large pitch count games. A reader who is an avid Giants fan was interested in a similar look at Tim Lincecum to see how he is holding up in September. There are reasons to be concerned about the heavy workload Lincecum has received this year in comparison to a pitcher like Sabathia. First, Lincecum is 24 and not yet past the injury nexus. Second, Lincecum has already thrown more than twenty more innings than he had thrown last year and will likely end up shattering the 200 innings pitched level (he is at 198 2/3 right now). Before we dive in to Lincecum's wear pattern let's look at a little deeper into what makes him so successful.

Tim Lincecum right now is a four pitch pitcher; fastball, change-up, slider, and curve. When I profiled Lincecum before the season began I noted that his fastball was a four seamer because of the huge vertical "rise" he gets with that pitch and the relatively small horizontal movement. It turns out I was wrong and this is actually Lincecum’s two seamer! I have never seen a pitcher throw a two seamer that fast, and with that movement. It is my understanding that Tim can’t control his four seamer so you wonder what kind of velocity and movement if he did throw a four seamer. Two seamer or four seamer the important thing here is he is throwing it around 95 MPH which obviously is awesome.

Lincecum curve is a very hard curve thrown at over 80 MPH but he still gets above average movement with the pitch. That is a deadly combination, most curveballs that have that much movement have to be thrown slower so there is more risk that a batter will identify the pitch in flight. This one two punch really reminds me of Ben Sheets who also throws mid-90’s with a very hard curve. Sheets’ curve is a little more 12 to 6 while Lincecum’s is a little more 11 to 5 but both clearly get the job done. Because of the extra horizontal movement Lincecum’s curve is especially tough on right handed batters who have to deal with a ball that is dropping fast and tailing away from them.

The thing that separates Lincecum’s stuff from Sheets is his change-up. While Sheets has been throwing a change-up more this year he gets very little speed differential with the pitch. Lincecum however generates more than ten MPH difference between his fastball and his change. That is very good and puts that pitch near elite levels. Lincecum had just started throwing a change-up in the pros so this is somewhat of a new pitch for him but I really liked what I saw last year and wanted him to throw it more. Lincecum has done just that this year especially to left handed batters and he is throwing it as a strikeout pitch. Because his curve isn’t quite 12 to 6 it moves in to left handed batters and tends to end up down and in which is the happy zone for many lefties. Enter Lincecum’s change-up which moves down and away from lefties with a huge speed differential. This is the perfect weapon for him and he is using it perfectly right now

The slider is a brand new pitch which he worked on in the off season and is different from the slider he threw in college. He began the year throwing more sliders but as the year has gone on he has been using the pitch less and less. It is a hard slider checking in at around 85 MPH and actually hardly moves at all with around two inches of horizontal and vertical break. I generally am not a fan of a slider with such little movement and Lincecum’s slider is no exception. When a slider doesn’t have more horizontal movement the pitcher can’t start the pitch on the outside corner and then move it out of the strike zone. When he does throw the slider it often is on a two strike count which again I wouldn’t do too much of as he isn’t getting the movement needed to make this a truly effective strikeout pitch. I wouldn’t mind him throwing the slider early in the count in the strike zone as hitters gear up for the fastball. That said, Lincecum is very rarely using this pitch right now so really it doesn’t make a big deal.

There is one more thing I want to mention before getting to Lincecum’s wear pattern. The other thing that we can see with PITCHf/x but can’t yet really break down is variability in release point. Previously, I have noted pitchers who have an exact release point which they stick with all the time and other pitchers who really vary their release point dropping their arm down on occasion. Lincecum definitely falls into the second category with a huge variation in release point of almost two feet.

Notice that as the release point widens it also drops. This means that it is a change in arm angle and not the pitcher moving from side to side on the mound. A 95 MPH fastball is rather unfair in and of itself but when you team that with not being certain where the ball is coming from and it is no wonder why hitters have no chance. Lincecum tends not to drop down as much when throwing his curve (and slider) but there is still plenty of variation even there. I haven’t run the numbers on this yet but my guess is a large variation in release point helps the pitcher. How much of a help I can’t say. The other issue is if you have such a wide variation in release point what does that say about your mechanics? PITCHf/x says absolutely nothing about what is going on before the ball is thrown and this is an area that I know little about so I will leave that to other to discuss but something I did want to point out.

Ok finally on to Lincecum’s wear pattern.

For an explanation of how to read this plot check here. Because of the wide variation in release point his horizontal and vertical movements have really been bouncing around all year. Also notice the large spread in movement especially horizontally. This makes perfect sense as the largest spread in his release point is horizontally as well. Notice that while there doesn’t seem to be much of a trend in the vertical movement up or down throughout the year there is a trend to less horizontal movement. It isn’t a perfect line but there is definitely a trend.

Movement is nice but the thing that makes Tim Lincecum’s fastball so good is the velocity. Lincecum’s velocity has been more consistent in game that either his horizontal or vertical movement which we would expect looking at his release point. Here too there is definitely a trend and this time it is pointing down. In the first few months of the season, Lincecum’s fastball average above 95 MPH in all but a handful of games. In the last month, none of his starts have resulted in an average fastball above 95 MPH. This trend is small, only one to two MPH, but it is noticeable and slightly worrying combined with the decrease in horizontal movement.

Those two variables really tend to go hand in hand for most pitchers. When the release point is up, the velocity is up, and the horizontal movement is down. When the release point is lower everything else is reversed. You likely have heard the saying that a pitcher has traded some speed for movement and this is exactly what they are talking about. Here, Lincecum’s horizontal movement is down and so is his velocity. It could be that if Lincecum was throwing with the same movement he had in the beginning of the year now that his velocity would be even lower than it is now.

While I did want to point that out I do want to mention that these wear patterns are very new and no league average has been established yet. It could be that an average starter would tend to lose more on his fastball as the year goes on than Lincecum has. Also, his last four starts have been very consistent velocity wise so it is very possible that thing are stabilizing a tick above 94 MPH which still puts him near the top of the league velocity wise.

In conclusion, Tim Lincecum is truly a great pitcher who is a lot more than just his fastball. His off speed pitches don’t get a lot of press but his curveball and change-up are both plus pitches at worst. Lincecum has thrown a lot of innings and has gone deep into many games this year and that is something the Giants should monitor very closely. It does appear that Lincecum has lost a little heat on the fastball but it isn’t like he is falling off a cliff so I don’t think it is anything major but something to pay attention to.

Josh Kalk writes for drivelinemechanics and can be reached at josh@drivelinemechanics.com

Carlos Zambrano's dead arm

dixieflatline — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 13:30:37 -0000

Yesterday Carlos Zambrano was scratched from his start with what the Cubs are calling a dead arm. Apparently he has lost some velocity in his last few starts. We can look at that with something I call wear pattern. Simply put, it is a plot of a certain pitch for a pitcher as the year goes on. Here is Zambrano's four seamer wear pattern.

Let me explain how to read this plot. First the horizontal axis is the number of the day throughout the year. So his first start was at the end of March near day number 90 of 2008 and his last start on 8/24 was on day 236. Next look at the black points. These points represent Zambrano's fastball speed averaged for each day he pitched so they correspond to the left axis labeled "Average Fastball Speed". You can also see error bars on these points which represent the spread on his velocity that day. If he threw some pitches at 88 and some at 94 this is going to produce a large error bar. If he was consistently in the 92-93 region it will produce a small error bar. Lastly, the red and blue points represent the movement of the ball horizontally and vertically. This corresponds to the movement axis on the right. If a pitcher is altering his arm angle you can often see it in the movement. For instance, if the horizontal movement is up and the vertical movement is down the pitcher likely dropped his arm angle. This generally means a drop in velocity but not always.

Anyway, back to Zambrano. Besides opening day when he threw so hard he wore his arm out Zambrano was in the low 90's for the first month and a half of the season. His velocity slowly climbed to the mid 90's in late May and early June but after a trip to the DL, Zambrano has kind of been all over the map with his last couple starts back in the low 90's with a relatively high spread. Notice that the movement of his fastball has barely changed at all so it is unlikely this has to do a change in arm angle. What about Zambrano's bread and butter his sinker?

So the first things that jumps out at me here is the start before Zambrano went on the DL you can see very high spread in his sinker movement with particularly high horizontal movement. This likely was caused by an inconstant release point that was probably a bit lower than usual. While his velocity didn't suffer he clearly wasn't "right" but since coming back from the DL things appear much better. Again there is a slight dip at the end in his last two starts but again, this is still in the range that you expect a Zambrano sinker to be in. Ok Maybe there is something in his cutter.

Here in his last start before going on the DL his movement of his cutter was normal but the velocity of that pitch was very inconsistent. That is particularly interesting because it is exactly backward what we saw with his sinker. If there is a loss in velocity here I am not seeing it. This looks like standard Carlos Zambrano to me.

To sum up, if there is a drop in velocity in Carlos Zambrano's fastballs it is a small drop at best. I have heard reports that put his velcoity in the upper 80's in his last two starts and while a few of his pitches likely were there the majority of them have been in the low 90's were he has been all year. As I pointed out in my previous article on Zambrano, his velocity is down a tick from last year so it is possible that a small fluctuation in his speed is causing more of a stir than it would have last year.

Manny being Manny (Parra, that is)

dixieflatline — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 16:52:14 -0000

I was playing around with some data here at lunch and I stumbled over to Manny Parra and I decided to do a little hand editing to his player card to tease out his splitter from his change up. Normally this isn't a problem that my algorithm has to worry about because only a few pitchers throw both a splitter and a change up. Generally, the pitches tend to move similarly and are thrown at about the same speed so I would presume that pitchers pick whatever one they throw better and just use that pitch. Because Manny uses both I was curious to see when and how he was using them. Here is what I found.

Starting with his movement chart you can now see the difference between the splitter and the change. Let me first note that Parra's change is a straight change which means it mimics the movement of the fastball. The more I look the more this seems to be the change up of choice for lefties as other lefties such as Johan Santana and Tom Glavine throw the straight change. Cole Hamels is an exception and you can see the extra horizontal and vertical movement he gets with his change. This is important because if Parra threw a circle change that change up would also have less vertical movement than his fastball and tend to merge with his splitter.

While both Parra's change and splitter are thrown at 84 MPH and he throws both about 13 percent of the time, the change up moves more horizontally and vertically. This really creates two separate pitches and Parra uses them completely differently. First, Parra almost never throws his change up to a left handed batter which is something that is a very common trend especially with left handed pitchers. Parra will gladly throw his splitter to lefties however as that pitch doesn't move in so he can keep that pitch from ending in the happy zone of down and in to lefties.

The splitter is his strikeout pitch and he throws it a ton on 0-2, 1-2, and 2-2 (37, 40, 31 percent respectively) but rarely early in the count and never when he is behind. The change up is most used when he falls behind 1-0 or 2-1 when he throws it 24 and 29 percent of the time. He also will throw it early in the count but rarely if the count gets to three balls. So if you are watching a game and are wondering if that pitch was a splitter or a change up check the count (and the handedness of the hitter).

I haven't talked about Manny's fastball or curveball but both are plus pitches. Manny is very Ben Sheets like with these two pitches throwing his fastball at 93 MPH and a very over the top curve that he throws harder than many lefties who tend to feature lollipop curves (Think Barry Zito, Ted Lilly, etc).

What I really want to spend so time on is Parra's release point. Actually, not his release point but where he is standing on the rubber. Generally pitchers pick one spot that they are comfortable with and stick with it throughout the year but Parra has been fiddling with this the entire year. Here is a look.

When I saw this I expected that there would be some cut off date where a switch was made from one of the clusters to the other but actually he has been going back and forth all year and even during some games. In fact, if you look really closely you can see three clusters; one around 1.75 feet, one around 0.75 feet and one basically at zero and he has moved back and forth as the year has gone. Here is a link to his game log so you can follow along. Starting in April Parra's first three starts he was way over to the first base side exclusively. On April 22^nd against the Cardinals, Parra moved to the middle release point.

Then on April 27^th against the Marlins, Parra moved to the third base side of the rubber for right handed batters but in the middle for left handed batters. I haven't seen this before though I assume that other pitchers might be doing this. I might have to go back and watch this game to see this as the difference is more than a foot and should be easy to see on TV.

Even though the Brewers lost that game Parra pitched pretty well so he continued this in his next game against the Astros in Minute Maid Park. You might remember the results as Parra served up two home runs and six runs, five earned, in just four innings. Undeterred, Parra again did this routine against the Cardinals in his next start on May 9^th before finally scrapping it and moving to the middle for his next start on May 14^th against the Dodgers.

Parra stayed in the middle throughout the middle part of the season until July 3^rd against the Diamondbacks where he went back to the first base side. That continued only one more start however as he against faced the Astros at their place. Despite getting the win, Parra didn't pitch particularly well and he went back to the middle for the rest of July.

August started in Cincinnati and here Parra moved over to the third base side the entire game. Dunn and Griffey had been traded so the Reds were mostly right handed that game and I guess Parra wanted to pitch inside on them but after a poor performance that day Parra moved back to the middle and has stayed there up until now (actually I don't have numbers for his last start against St. Louis yet).

This is really interesting behavior from a pitcher and should be something interesting to watch as the season goes on. This moving back and forth hasn't appeared to have changed his stuff in any way, all his balls still move the same and the vertical part of his release has generally stayed the same which is why I know this is a just him adjusting where he stands on the rubber and not an alteration of his arm angle or something like that.

Comparing Carlos Zambrano to himself

dixieflatline — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 13:41:55 -0000

During Carlos Zambrano's last start I found myself chatting online with a Cubs fan in a large group of people and I made the comment that I was worried about his strikeout rate dropping the last few years. He answered that it was because Zambrano was throwing his sinker more. I wasn't so sure about this. Zambrano throws three different fastballs and their movements are very similar so differentiating between them real time is definitely not something I could do. I also took a quite peak at his groundball percentage and it literally hadn't changed in the past two years. Not that a ground ball percentage of nearly 47 percent is bad, it actually is quite good, but it hasn't changed in the last three years. In addition, he hadn't really been lowering the number of pitches he was throwing per plate appearance (3.8 this year 4.0 the previous two years). So why has his strikeout rate dropped from 8.9 per game in 2006 to 7.4 last year to 6.2 this year? Also why has his walk rate dropped from 4.9 per game in 2006 to 4.3 last year to 3.3 this year? If he really is throwing more sinkers early in the count then he likely should be getting more groundballs and definitely should be throwing fewer pitches per plate appearance. Let's try to make some sense of what is going on here.

Starting with his 2007 movement chart we can see the jumble of fastballs. His four seam fastball is right in the middle which he throws at 94.5 MPH. It also doesn't have the rise of regular four seamers checking in at a tick under eight inches of vertical movement but a solid six inches of horizontal movement. This is certainly due to his lowered release point which is generally a tad lower than ¾. He is throwing this pitch 17 percent of the time more to lefties than righties (21 percent to 13 percent).

His sinker is a power sinker being thrown at 92 MPH and "rising" just under five inches. Notice this pitch has more vertical movement than the classic sinkerballers you think of like Brandon Webb and Derek Lowe. The reason for the is likely the extra velocity Zambrano is getting with his sinker. Both Webb and Lowe generally throw in the upper 80's so Zambrano is trading off increased speed for increased movement. Also because of lower arm slot this pitch really bores in to right handed batters as he generates just over eight inches of vertical movement. He is throwing the sinker 26 percent of the time slightly more often to righties than lefties (29 percent to 24 percent).

Zambrano also throws a cutter which gets almost no press. This pitch only move two inches horizontally but almost seven inches vertically. He also throws this pitch quite hard checking in at 91 MPH on average. Despite basically nobody talking about it Zambrano threw this pitch the most of nay of his fastballs at 33 percent of the time and equally often to lefties and righties. That is very unusual as pitchers who do throw a cutter tend to throw it more to an opposite handed batter as the ball rides in more than a regular four seamer would.

Zambrano also throws a slider and a splitter with most of the sliders against righties and most of the splits to lefties like you would expect. He threw the splitter 14 percent of the time in 2007 and the slider 10 percent of the time. Despite a quite large difference in speed and movement between his splitter and sinker Zambrano actually grips the two pitches very similarly.

Ok, on to 2008 Zambrano and here is his movement chart.

The first thing that jumps out at me is how his sinker has slightly diverged from his four seamer. His sinker now has more horizontal movement up to nearly 9½ inches and it also is sinking about a half inch more. He still is throwing this pitch at 92 MPH so that hasn't changed but with the added movement this clearly is a better pitch than it was last year. As a result he is throwing it more, nearly 38 percent of the time, which is a large increase. So if that Cubs fan is reading, you are reading you were right, more sinkers and better sinkers.

As a result, he is throwing his four seamer and his cutter less (11 percent and 24 percent respectively). He also isn't getting the same velocity he was with those pitches with his four seamer down one MPH and his cutter down half a MPH. That is kind of strange that he would lose a little velocity with those fastballs but keep the velocity on the sinker but that is what has happened. Also, his splitter and slider have changed places with him throwing his splitter 11 percent now and his slider 15 percent of the time.

The other thing that kind of jumps out at you is how spread out his pitches are now. In 2007 everything was kind of nice and tidy and bundled together but in 2008 not only has his sinker spread away from his four seamer but his slider has become a smear instead of a cluster. What is going on here is as Zambrano adds or subtracts spin the slider breaks more, or less, horizontally. Normally when I see a pitcher who throws a pitch that is smeared out like that I question whether the pitcher is consciously doing that or if that spread is just due to lack of repeatability. Here though I think it is very clear that Zambrano is in control of this as he showed in 2007 that he can repeat his delivery and produce a nice compact cluster of sliders. Assuming this is the case this likely is a real weapon for Zambrano who can then throw the slider with little movement early in the count and throw the slider again late in the count when looking for a swing and a miss. If you look hard you can see similar spread in hit cutter and sinker as well though the spread is less pronounced there.

So that was very interesting but how does this help us answer our questions we started with about the lowered strikeout and walk rate coupled with a tiny change in pitches per plate appearance and no change in his groundball rate. Well it is clear that Zambrano is using his sinker more but even still that sinker isn't a beat the ball into the ground sinker so while he is still getting solid ground ball numbers that is the reason the ground ball percentage hasn't gone up even though the sinker percentage has.

What about the decreased walk rate and strikeout rate with nearly the same pitches per plate appearance? Well, in 2007 Zambrano was using his fastball and his cutter a lot as his strikeout pitch. In fact, 54 percent of the time he would throw either his fastball or cutter on 0-2 or 1-2. This year that percentage is down to 40 percent. Now he is throwing his splitter or his slider much more and if a batter lays off that pitch he Zambrano has to come back and throw more pitches. I wonder if the decreased velocity on his fastball and cutter are the issue here. High heat can be a very effective strikeout pitch but it tends to be even more effective if you can throw it 95 MPH. Zambrano is throwing strike one more often this year than last so he is getting in pitchers counts more often so he is walking less but then isn't closing the deal so the strikeouts have suffered and the pitch counts really haven't been impacted either.

A look at the playoff roster, take one

dixieflatline — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 15:16:35 -0000

While the Brewers themselves shouldn't be looking ahead I don't think it will hurt too much for us to look ahead for a moment. August 31st is when playoff rosters are due and while there are some chances to make some changes to that roster it will generally stay pretty set. So what kind of roster will the Brewers submit this year? Here are the locks to make the roster:

Position players (12):

Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Cameron, Kendall, Counsell, Hall, Rivera, Durham, Kapler

Pitchers (8):

Sabathia, Sheets, Parra, Suppan, Bush, Torres, Gagne, Shouse

Ok so 20 locks out of 25 players. That leaves some players on the fence.

Branyan, Nix, Minor leaguer batter

Villanueva, Riske, McClung, Mota, Stetter or some other minor league pitcher

First, the Brewers are carrying twelve pitchers right now but for the playoffs when you only need four starters you definitely can get away with ten pitchers but the Brewers probably will opt for eleven. That brings up some interesting questions namely, who will be the forth starter? Sabathia, Sheets, and Parra appear to have locked up the first three spots leaving Bush and Suppan to battle for the last spot. Bush has definitely out pitched Suppan this year and even more so recently but Soup brings the veteran grit so don't be surprised if Bush is moved to the bullpen, a role he has seen action in this year. With Bush in the pen that leaves at least one reliever who won't be making the roster with Mota being an obvious first choice.

As for the position players assuming Russell is healthy there is no way he doesn't make the roster but his injury does put that at risk. I think Nix is good to go as the Crew will need an extra outfielder and he is already on the roster. That would bring them to fourteen but if Braynan can't go someone else will have to take his place.

The Brewers then would have a lot of different options then and could go one of many ways. First, they could bring up Gamel who is a left handed hitting third baseman which is exactly what Russell brings to the table. They could also go speed/defense and bring up Escobar or call up a third catcher so pinch hitting for Kendall is a little easier on Yost. That could either be Vinny Rottino or Angel Salome but Salome or Gamel would need to be put on the 40 man roster first (though it sure looks like Gamel will be there shortly).

Fortunately for the Brewers most of these decisions can be put off thanks to the K-Rod loophole. That loophole states that if you put a man on the playoff roster who is on the 15 day DL you can then replace him on the roster with anyone on the 40 man roster as of August 31st no matter what position he plays (that part is new) by transferring the player on the 15 day DL to the 60 day DL. So expect the playoff roster handed in on the 31st to look very similar to this:

Positions players (14):

Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Hart, Cameron, Kendall, Counsell, Hall, Rivera, Durham, Kapler, Nix, Branyan*

Pitchers (11):

Sabathia, Sheets, Parra, Suppan, Bush, Torres, Gagne, Shouse, Villanueva, Riske, Capuano*

* on 15 day DL

This will give the Brewers the maximum roster flexibility including the option to go with ten pitchers and call up one of the before mentioned position players instead of most likely McClung (though Riske better watch himself). Honestly, this is what I am hoping they will do because there simply is no need for seven in the bullpen with all the off days in the playoffs. Ned will likely be riding his starters hard anyway and a third catcher or a good pinch runner would almost certainly be move valuable.

A look at Jeff Samardzija

dixieflatline — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 18:38:27 -0000

Jeff Samardzija has been in the spotlight for quite some time after playing football and baseball at Notre Dame. When the Cubs selected him in the fifth round of the 2006 draft many thought there was no way he would sign opting for football instead. Samardzija did sign and started pitching in the Cubs farm system before going back to play his senior year of football. Samardzija had a big arm at Notre Dame but his results were just good there and many questioned if he had the control to make it.

Samardzija has had his ups and downs in his minor league career but the command definitely had shown improvement. The problem was Samardzija's strikeout numbers were also falling. After a very mediocre year last year mostly spent in high A ball Samardzija began this year at AA. Things didn't go well for him with his strikeout numbers just over five an inning and his walk numbers just under that. Surprisingly, the Cubs promoted him to AAA and after six quality starts where he got his strikeout totals above nine per inning Samardzija got called up to the big leagues. Samardzija has been put into the bullpen and has been lights out giving up just two runs in 15 innings and notching his first career save. His strikeouts are through the roof and he has been throwing strikes, which is definitely something he wasn't doing in AA. Here is a look at his stuff.

via baseball.bornbybits.com

As you can see Samardzija has thrown three pitches in the big leagues, a sinker, splitter, and slider. His sinker is kind of an oddity in the world of sinkers with nearly ten inches of horizontal movement and over seven inches of vertical rise. That just barely can be called a sinker at all. The other unusual thing about his sinker is he throws it over 95 MPH on average. That is huge speed for a two seamer with the league average around 90 MPH. You would expect that he wouldn't get a lot of groundballs with a sinker like his and that is generally what he has shown in the minors.

Samardzija's off speed pitches are not quite as dominate as his sinker. Samardzija's slider has barely any movement at all (-1 inch horizontally, slightly away from a right handed batter, and 1.7 inches vertically). While this does generate a large horizontal difference from his fastball because the pitch barely moves at all Samardzia can't start the slider on the outside corner and have it move away like you see many other pitchers do with their sliders. Samardzija must throw this pitch for a strike and the best time to do that is early in the count. It appears he has figured that out throwing ten of his eleven sliders tracked by PITCHf/x on 0-0 or 0-1 and all but two of them to right handed batters.

Samardzija's strikeout pitch is his splitter which he throws around 86 MPH generating nearly nine MPH differential from his sinker. His split has only slightly less horizontal and vertical movement so the speed differential really is the key here. Samardzija is throwing his split almost exclusively when the count gets to two strikes and the majority of his strikeouts have come with that pitch.

Many have talked about moving Samardzija back into the rotation next year maybe in place of Jason Marquis. While Marquis could definitely use replacement I don't think that Samardzija is the answer. If you look at his career MLEs it sure doesn't look like he is the answer. But what about his great start in the majors you ask? Well it has only been 15 innings and looking at Samardzija's stuff you can see why he has been successful. His sinker just doesn't have the sink to it you would expect so he really needs the added velocity. Samardzija's off speed pitches are not where they need to be to be successful in the rotation yet. He is only 23 so he has time to develop these pitches but until he shows a little more I'd want to keep him in the bullpen.

Josh Kalk enjoys breaking down players with PITCHf/x and will work for a Stalker Sport. You can contact him at josh@drivelinemechanics.com.