
djmbluemoon
Mar 06, 2009 May 10, 2012 8 2280
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McDaniels' 4th down calls
I'm writing this here so it doesn't get lost in the gamethread comments, and to start a proper discussion about McD's calls on 4th down.
I'll start with the 4th and 3 down 20-13 in the 4th quarter (taken in isolation, i.e. ignoring the decision to go for it on 4th and 1 in the 1st half); most people's reaction to this seemed to be it was a horrible call and they should have kicked the field goal. I take the opposite view though, I think going for it is a no-brainer, here's why.
At the time we needed a touchdown and were 12 yards out, 3 yards from converting a first down. If we kick the field goal, hey, we still need a touchdown and if we get the ball back we're likely 70-90 yards away with possibly 4 minutes or less to go. To sum up, we go for it and don't get it, we need a touchdown and the Colts have the ball on their 12, we kick it, we need a touchdown and the Colts have the ball on their 20, essentially no difference. The benefits of going for the TD clearly outweigh the negatives from turning the ball over without any points.
The call in the first half, the 4th and 1, I disagree with. I go for the 3 points there, as I always would in the first half, because you never know how the game is gonna shape up in the 2nd half, and points on the board is preferable to me in that situation (as has been pointed out, that then makes the field goal on 4th and 3 an obvious call, to turn it into a 1 point game). However, I know a ton of coaches in the NFL who go for it on 4th and 1 in that situation, some of whom are going to the hall of fame, so it's hardly a horrendous radical decision.
I'm not a McDaniels apologist, he makes decisions about personnel and play calling that I quite often disagree with, but I think criticising this decision is borne out of frustration rather than an appreciation of the game situation.
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Torrealba > Iannetta ????
As is evident, in the last week or so Yorvit appears to have been inserted into the starting catcher role due to his hot bat combined with Iannetta continuing his seemingly season-long slump at the plate.
Rox Girl mentioned in the rockpile today that riding a wave of Yorvit to the postseason may not be a likely outcome, and that it would be in the Rockies best interests to relegate him back to backup status just as soon as an infielder actually gets to one of his ground balls. I thought I'd look into the stats to come up with the best course of action for the rest of the season.
Starting with the simple slash stats for the season (including wOBA at the end):
Torrealba: .279/.348/.357/.305
Iannetta: .223/.333/.451/.337
Put simply, Iannetta has held greater value over the course of the season by virtue of his outlandish isolated power, which has seen 30 of his 61 hits this season go for extra bases. Now, looking at the same stats since the all-star break:
Torrealba: .329/.390/.357/.321
Iannetta: .208/.301/.427/.295
Again, Iannetta has a big advantage in terms of slugging, but Yorvit more than makes up for this with a batting average some 120 points higher. Yorvit currently has a BABIP since the all-star break of .396, which obviously is not sustainable, and so the regression in this category will likely push his value down closer to his season mark.
Another point worth noting, is that they have basically identical BB/K ratios, with Torrealba at 0.56 and Iannetta at 0.56. If you had suggested that to me at the beginning of the season, I wouldn't have believed you.
In summary, neither catcher is ideal for a playoff push, in that both are performing well below average offensively. I would personally tend to lean towards picking Iannetta for the stretch run for two reasons:
- His defense is markedly superior to Yorvit's, and having baserunners at least respect the arm of our catcher is desirable.
- Whilst he has shown nothing to suggest he has the potential to break out this season, there remains the slight possibility that he will become 2008 Iannetta at some point this year (wishful thinking perhaps!), and thus provide much better value in the lineup.
The fact remains though that it's basically a toss up right now for who provides the most value, and therefore as Torrealba has the hot bat at the moment, I can't fault Tracy for playing him at the moment.
More Rockies ignorance
I know the fact we get not respect was discussed ad nauseum yesterday, but this is the most blatant ignorance post-Kruk I've seen.
We don't even get a 'the' we're just 'Rockies', a mere footnote to the playoff race.
Amazing.
SI reads Purple Row!
In the latest Sports Illustrated Power Rankings, the caption for the Rockies focuses on the player most responsible for providing the people of Denver with Taco's (Todd), a stat proposed and examined earlier this week by our very own RockiesMagicNumber!
Just make sure you collect the royalties....
Yankees acquire Hirsh
The Yankees have taken Hirsh off us, it's not clear what for yet.
Additionally, the Yankees have released veteran pitcher Brett Tomko.
It's thought that this is simply a depth move; perhaps AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre will do something to help rejuvenate Jason Hirsh.
Rockies to make trade today
MLBtraderumors.com reporting the Rox are going to make a move to acquire right handed relief help today.
This one will run and run I'd imagine
Troy Tulowitzki ranked #15 in trade value by Dave Cameron
I have to say this surprises me a bit, when I saw Reyes' name on the list yesterday I thought that Tulo wasn't going to make an appearance.
Huston Street named NL co-player of the week
A nice reward for Street's stellar pitching recently, even if he does have to share it with (the admittedly raking) marK rEynolds.
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