SB Nation User Blog: dkdc

GameThread: Orioles (32-39) @ Marlins (37-36)

dkdc — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 23:35:28 -0000

For the Orioles:

Brian Roberts - 2B
Nick Markakis - RF
Adam Jones - CF
Ty Wigginton - 1B
Melvin Mora - 3B
Nolan Reimold - LF
Matt Wieters - C
Robert Andino - SS
Rich Hill - LHP

For the Marlins:

Chris Coghlan - LF
Emilio Bonifacio - 3B
Hanley Ramirez - SS
Jorge Cantu - 1B
Dan Uggla - 2B
Ronny Paulino - C
Cody Ross - CF
Brett Carroll - RF
Sean West - LHP

Let's go O's! Let's go O's! Let's go O's! Let's go O's! Let's go O's! Let's go O's! Let's go O's! Let's go O's!

Brandon Snyder promoted to AAA

dkdc — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 03:02:29 -0000

http://masnsports.com/2009/06/snyder-moving-up.html

I'm hearing strong rumblings that first baseman Brandon Snyder is being promoted from Double-A Bowie to Triple-A Norfolk.

No announcment has been made and nothing is official, but don't be shocked if we receive confirmation tomorrow.

The Orioles are being a LOT more aggressive about their promotions this year. Arrieta, Matusz, and Patton were all promoted this week too.

Last year, the best prospect in baseball was destroying the Carolina League, and he wasn't promoted to AA until the END of June. Reimold didn't get promoted at all last year, even though he was repeating AA. Tillman never got promoted either.

Given how methodical MacPhail has been about promoting prospects, this is a pretty radical departure, and I think it has to mean something.

WIth Snyder, Arrieta, Tillman, Patton, and Hernandez at AAA, are we looking at a veteran fire sale in July and callups galore in August/September in preparation for a run next year? Or am I getting ahead of myself?

UPDATE (zk): This is official per Baysox39 below and Roch. Welcome, Brandon!

Baserunning out of patience

dkdc — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 17:46:54 -0000

It happened well after midnight last night, so you may not have seen it live. You probably won't see it at all if you casually scan the box score. But something frustrating and all-too-predictable happened in the 9th inning of last night's Orioles game.

Aubrey Huff led off the top of the 9th inning of tie game with a single. With Melvin Mora coming to the plate, there were a number of options available to the Orioles manager.

Small ball orthodoxy dictates that you replace the plodding Aubrey Huff with a pinch runner, and ask Mora to bunt him over to second. Sabermetricians often malign the sacrifice, but according to Michael Lichtman and Tom Tango, this may be the rare situation where a bunt is appropriate:

Late in a close game, in a low run-scoring environment, it is correct to often sacrifice bunt with a runner on first and no outs. In an average run-scoring environment, you should sometimes sacrifice to keep the defense honest.

Dave Trembley decided not to bunt and he also decided not to put Felix Pie out on the basepaths.

That's fine, because it's also defensible to give Melvin a pat on the back and tell him to be patient and look for a pitch he can drive. That's exactly what Dave appeared to be doing, as Melvin quickly worked the count to 3-1.

Then something strange happened - or at least, I imagine it would be strange to anyone who doesn't follow the Orioles closely.

Dave Trembley called for the hit-and-run. This wasn't the first time he called for the hit-and-run in this game, as Adam Jones narrowly avoided being doubled off on a line drive out just a few innings earlier. In fact, I don't think I've ever seen another major league manager call for the hit-and-run as reliably as Dave Trembley.

Dave Trembley hates the double play, which is understandable. Perhaps last night he was still reeling from Matt Wieters' inning-ending GIDP with the bases loaded earlier in the night. But I'm convinced that the hit-and-run causes as many double plays as it prevents, and it ALWAYS puts the hitter in a position where they must shorten their swing and sacrifice power in order to make contact.

The hit-and-run should be used sparingly, and it should absolutely never be used with a slow runner on first, a strikeout pitcher on the mound, and a below-average contact hitter at the plate.

Lets get the game recap over with. Melvin Mora fouls off the first pitch with Huff running. Dave calls for the hit-and-run again. Melvin Mora fouls off the next pitch. Dave calls for the hit-and-run again. Melvin Mora swings through the pitch for a strikeout and Huff is nailed by a mile a second base. Rally over.

That was the fifth time Aubrey Huff was caught "stealing" this year, and he has yet to successfully steal a base. The Orioles lead the American League in caught stealing, and they are near the bottom in stolen bases. Only Brian Roberts and Adam Jones have stolen more bases than they have been caught stealing.

There's more to the problem than the hit-and-run, though. Doesn't it seem like the Orioles are also getting picked off a lot, including two more pickoffs last night? Doesn't it also seem like they are getting doubled off on line drives or nailed at the plate or trying to stretch an extra base pretty much every day?

Thanks to Dan Fox's work at Baseball Prospectus, we have a pretty good way of quantifying all of this. Fox developed a series of stats to measure baserunning. The statistics are all expressed in run values above and below average. EqSBR measures the value of stolen bases versus caught stealing. EqHAR, EqGAR, EqAAR, and EqOAR measure how well a team advances bases on hits, groundouts, air outs, and wild pitches respectively.

Let's take a look at the 2009 leaderboard:

EqSBR: The Orioles rank 30th out of 30 teams.

EqHAR: The Orioles rank 25th out of 30 teams.

EqGAR: The Orioles rank 29th out of 30 teams.

EqAAR: The Orioles rank 30th out of 30 teams.

EqOAR: The Orioles rank 5th out of 30 teams, but this is by far the least important category.

Add it all up, and you get, EqBRR which measures the total runs above/below average for baserunning as a team. Not surprisingly, the Orioles rank dead last at -15 runs.

It's not fair to blame all of this on Trembley, but the stats are pretty revealing. The Orioles ranked 9th in EqBRR in 2006. In 2007, with a half year of Trembley, they fell to 19th. In 2008, with a full year of Trembley, the Orioles ranked dead last, and this year they rank dead last again and are on pace to be the worst baserunning team in recent history.

The numbers don't lie. Dave Trembley's strategy of aggressive baserunning has been a miserable failure and it is making a bad team even worse. Those 15 runs that the Orioles have squandered on the basepaths this year could easily be worth three wins given the high-leverage situations that the outs are occuring in. According to Fangraphs, the Orioles went from being 60% favorites to win the game to 40% underdogs because of the failed hit-and-run last night. Three more wins and three fewer losses make this Orioles team a .500 ballclub.

It's time for Dave Trembley to adopt a baserunning strategy that makes sense, or it's time for Andy MacPhail to find someone else who will.

Edit: I found one more opinion I trust on this, the Earl himself:

I don't have a hit-and-run sign, and I believe it's the worst play in baseball. First, the runner is going to second base at half speed, looking to see if the hitter makes contact. If the hitter fails to connect, 90 percent of the time that runner is thrown out stealing second. Also, the hitter is at a disadvantage because he knows he has to swing at any pitch in order to protect the runner. Odds are that he'll be going after a pitch that isn't a particularly good one to hit. It puts everyone at a disadvantage and I don't think much of it.

Rosenthal: Cubs in talks with O's over Freel

dkdc — Fri, 08 May 2009 16:29:02 -0000

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9551412/Sources:-Cubs-in-talks-with-O's-over-Freel

The Cubs, seeking more versatility for their bench, are talking to the Orioles about a trade for disgruntled utility man Ryan Freel, according to major-league sources.
Freel, 33, plays all three outfield positions, plus second and third base. The revival of Kosuke Fukudome and emergence of Micah Hoffpauir have left the Cubs more in need of an infielder than an outfielder.

If the Cubs acquire Freel, who has approximately $3.3 million remaining in 2009 salary, they likely would part with outfielder Joey Gathright, who has batted only 14 times this season. The Orioles are believed to be talking to other teams as well.

Roch is also saying the Freel is as good as gone.

I don't think any talent will be coming back - if a team is even willing to eat Freel's salary, that's a win for the O's. He was only included in the Ramon trade to take the edge off the salary increase for the Reds.

Brad Bergesen Pitching Right Now

dkdc — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 15:54:12 -0000

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2009_04_15_noraaa_chraaa_1

Is this Bergesen's last start for Norfolk? Simon's next turn in the rotation would be 5 days from now, due to the off day tomorrow.

So far:
3 IP
2 K
0 BB
0 R
1 H
1 HBP
6 groundball outs

He's thrown 46 pitches, 28 for strikes.

Matt Wieters is not playing today, since it's a day game after a night game.

Angelos

dkdc — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 19:30:13 -0000

Is anyone ready to believe that he's really changed?

http://masnsports.com/2009/03/the-owner-is-here.html

Angelos said he speaks to Andy MacPhail, president of baseball operations, about once every two weeks.

"He calls when he thinks there's something important for us to talk about," Angelos said. "The club's in good hands, as is quite obvious, so too many calls aren't really required."

As the Orioles draw closer to contention, perhaps after this season, they appear more willing to spend on marquee free agents.

"Absolutely,'' Angelos said. "We've had that in mind, and I believe the resources will be available to do that."

To me, Angelos is the last wild card in the turnaround of this team. He sounds like a dream owner in these quotes - hands-off and willing to spend.

Dare I believe he's really changed? Has he really bought into the cult of Andy?

Projected Standings

dkdc — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 20:38:28 -0000

Chone Smith has used his player projections (which I think are the best in the business) to come up with projected standings. It's no surprise that he has the Orioles in last place, but two things are interesting to me here.

1. The Blue Jays are projected to win only one more game that the Orioles. I've become more convinced over the offseason that the Jays are set up to be a big surprise on the downside. Their offense is the worst in the division, by far, and they've already lost a couple important arms for much of the season. The O's probably won't cross .500 this year, but sweet, sweet 4th place may be in reach.

2. The Power Rankings at the bottom have the Orioles as the 15th best team in baseball. We all know that there are substantial differences between the AL and NL, and beyond that the AL East is a whole other level of pain, but it's still a little suprising to see the Orioles projected to be a slightly better than average major league team. And that's WITH a complete train-wreck of a rotation, so it's not hard to get excited about the possibilities if the O's win the young pitcher lottery.

To put that a little more perspective on that, the Orioles are ranked two slots ahead of the Dodgers, who are projected to finish first in the NL West.

Check it out here:

http://www.baseballprojection.com/2009standings.htm

KaBOOM!: A-Rod tested positive in 2003

dkdc — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 16:03:56 -0000

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/02/07/alex-rodriguez-steroids/?eref=sircrc

In 2003, when he won the American League home run title and the AL Most Valuable Player award as a shortstop for the Texas Rangers Alex Rodriguez tested positive for two anabolic steroids, four sources have independently told Sports Illustrated.

Rodriguez's name appears on a list of 104 players who tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in Major League Baseball's '03 survey testing, SI's sources say. As part of a joint agreement with the MLB Players Association, the testing was conducted to determine if it was necessary to impose mandatory random drug testing across the major leagues in 2004.

Editor's note by SC:

Ahaha. Ahahahahahahaha. Ahahahahahahahahahahaha.

Wieters Hype Train

dkdc — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:11:50 -0000

I've spent all winter trying to temper my expectations for Wieters, and then Kevin Goldstein goes and writes this article:

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8453

What did I learn this winter? I learned that Baltimore catching prospect Matt Wieters is good. Well, wait a second, I already knew that, so how about, "really good"? Nope, the extra modifier just doesn't do it justice.

How about this: after looking at the performance, talking to the scouts, and seeing what our numbers people were able to uncover over the offseason, Matt Wieters is the best prospect in baseball, the best player on the Orioles right now, and quite possibly the best catcher in the game. And he's yet to play an inning in the big leagues.

So we know he's great, but work done by our team of researchers and statisticians during the offseason suggests that he might just be historic. One essential measurement here at Baseball Prospectus is Clay Davenport's Equivalent Average (abbreviated as EqA),s a single figure that measures total offense and adjusts for a number of factors, including the league's offensive environment, park factors, and team pitching, while providing further balances to allow for accurate comparisons across different eras.

Applying these complex formulas to Wieters' minor league season gives him a .301 EqA for his High-A stint and a .349 mark at Double-A. EqA is scaled like batting average, so those are good numbers to be sure, but further research reveals that those are the highest marks achieved in both leagues in the last 40 years, which is as far back as our data goes. Matt Wieters wasn't just great last year, he put together one of the best single seasons in modern minor league history.

If that isn't an enthusiastic-enough endorsement, then there's PECOTA, our projection system, and the most accurate one in the business. PECOTA is a system that does what it does based on comparisons
— finding similar players with similar physical tools and baseball skill sets. According to PECOTA, with a full slate of at-bats, Wieters should hit .311 with a .395 on-base percentage and a .544 slugging mark this year. That's good for a .319 EqA. How good is that? Historically great, because it would easily be the highest mark of any catcher in 2009, and only 17 catchers have exceeded that mark in the history of baseball.

Now, when ranking prospects, simply going by the numbers is a fool's choice. Knowing what a player is doing is one thing, but knowing how that player is doing it is just as vital. Scouts are great people to talk to, often giving you in-depth breakdowns on every aspect of a player's game. Those were a little harder to come by on Wieters following his season; one scout presented with the name simply laughed, stating, "What can I say? The guy is just a stud." Even beyond the simple dominance reflected in the stats, that's what he is on a scouting level as well. We're talking about a massive physical specimen who combines plus power from both sides of the plate, the strike-zone discipline of a sharp-eyed veteran, above-average defensive skills behind the plate, and a cannon for an arm, proven by the 96 mph fastballs he'd throw during his days when he did double duty as Georgia Tech's closer in college.

He can't really be THAT good, can he?

O's offer Tex $180+ Million?

dkdc — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 21:03:59 -0000

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2008/12/teixeira-negoti.html

The Yankees' imminent signing of free-agent left-hander CC Sabathia to a seven-year, $160-million deal would seem to take them out of the running for Mark Teixeira, but that will hardly ease the competition the Angels face in retaining the free-agent first baseman.

According to a source from a team who is involved in negotiations, the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles "are coming in hot" on Teixeira, with the Nationals apparently willing to offer the slugger a 10-year deal for more than $20 million a year and the Orioles willing to go nine years for at least $20 million a year.

The Boston Red Sox are also aggressively pursuing Teixeira. For more details, go to latimes.com.

-- Mike DiGiovanna

It's probably just chatter, but that's a pretty serious offer if true. I like Tex a lot, but 9 years seems crazy to me.