As Braves fans, this season has pretty much been a roller coaster of emotion . Even though we have the 4th best record in baseball and 2nd in the NL, it Fredi feels like we're playing much worse. When our starting pitching has been lights out, our offense is anemic. Or our offense finally starts to hit, but can't drive anyone in. Or our starting pitching decides to eff it and give up a homer every 1st inning. Seems like we have the worst luck in baseball. Yet, somehow we're well positioned to make the playoffs, in large part because O'Ventbrel has be been far and away the best trio of relievers in baseball. So, while bored at work, I decided to look up some numbers to put O'Ventbrel in perspective.

(Not including today) O'Ventbrel has thrown 165.1 innings and given up 26 earned runs, good for a 1.41 ERA. In comparison, the man probably leading in the Cy Young race, the workhorse Roy Halladay, has thrown 162.1 and given up 44 ERs, good for a 2.44 ERA. (Sees hitters multiple times an outing, whatever, shut up). In fact, since O'Ventbrel is on pace to throw a starter's amount of innings, I decided to look up past Cy Young award winners. Turns out only 1 starter who has won the Cy Young in either league since they started giving out the award in 1956 has finished with a lower ERA than O'Ventbrel is on pace to earn, and that's Bob Gibson in 1968. Currently, O'Ventbrel has a 4.9 fWAR, which trails only CC, Halladay, Verlander and Weaver in pitchers. In fact, O'Ventbrel has been the best player(s) in terms of fWAR on the Braves this year (McCann's 2nd at 3.7. Also, can you compare WAR across positions like that? I don't know but I just did).

Maybe O'Ventbrel gets worked too hard, but its hard to argue with the results. It's nice to know as a Braves fan that if the Braves have the lead after 6, you Fredi feel like that game's already over.

I think it’s safe to say Rick Sund’s legacy will be defined this upcoming offseason. When he first got here after the Hawks had just taken the Celtics to 7, the obvious move was to keep the ship intact and see where it led. Sign Josh to a no brainer contract. Childress left, but replace him with bargain deals in Mo Evans and Flip Murray and keep going. Then, summer of 09. Chilly still likes Greece so upgrade Acie Law and Speedy Claxton to Jamal Crawford. Resign Marvin (who had improved and everyone was on the bandwagon), Bibby and Zaza and keep on going. Good moves and very safe. Low risk, medium reward moves. And we Hawks fans have been satisfied with that.

This offseason though, Sund will be forced to make choices that will define this team for the next 5 years. Hire a new coach, and then shape the roster in an surprisingly diverse amount of ways. In some ways, the Hawks offseason could potentially be more interesting than any other team. Nets, Knicks, Bulls and Heat are realistic landing spots for Lebron, Bosh, Wade, and the like, but those team will either get one or two of those players or not. The ones that win will fill in the blanks with minimum contract players and the ones that don’t will be forced to overpay 2nd tier players. The way I see it, the Hawks offseason will have to play out in one of 3 ways.

Desperately afraid of change.

Afraid of letting JJ walk for nothing, Sund signs JJ to a max deal for 6 years and the Hawks team we see now will be the Hawks team will be the Hawks team we see for a long time. I don’t like this scenario.

Conservative

Recognizing JJ as the non-superstar he is, Sund lets JJ walk. Either Crawford slides into the starting lineup, or Childress comes back into the starting lineup and we’re essentially last years team minus JJ. I see a step back next year, but once Crawford is off the books, summer of 2011 could be big. Still, I see this as the coward’s way out.

Creative

Now, this is where Sund can whip it out and put it on the table(his carefully constructed plans to turn the Hawks into a championship team, what'd you think I was talking about?). The Hawks have 3 legit trade assets and they can use one or more to drastically reshape the team. Jamal Crawford’s sharp shooting and expiring contract, Josh Smith’s reasonable contract and a JJ sign and trade(I don’t consider Childress to be a legit trade asset because seeing as only Minnesota gave him a look last summer, he’s not likely to change teams this year. Any reasonable offer is just going to be matched by the Hawks and he’s not good enough and has been out of the league long enough to deter any team from overpaying him.  He could be a good secondary trade piece though.)

Even though I love Josh Smith and think he’s tied for best Hawks player with Horford, he also plays the same position as Horford. That’s a problem when the team the Hawks have to beat to reach the finals is the Magic. The Hawks can’t beat the Magic with Horford at center, no matter how much heart he has. Unfortunetely, due to Josh’s reputation, I doubt it’s possible to get fair value in a trade with Josh Smith so most likely he stays. At least, if I were GM anyway.

Sign and trade with JJ is interesting. While usually mentioned just after Lebron, Wade, and Bosh in terms of 2010 free agents, the difference between JJ and those guys is that fans won’t be suicidal if JJ leaves. Some(like me) may feel suicidal if he stays. (That’s because he’s so underrated, he’s actually overrated.) I can score 20ppg in an NBA game if you give me enough shots. (Can you shoot 1200-1500 shots in an NBA game?) Thing is, most people, and a surprisingly high amount of GMs look at that 20ppg and say,”Oh, he must be really good. Dwayne Wade scores 25ppg, Joe Johnson must be just a step below that.” Yeah, well, doesn’t work like that. Sign and trade him for say, Kaman and Eric Gordon? OJ Mayo, Thabeet and a #1? Dalembert and/or Iguodala? Stephen Curry and Anthony Morrow?(Okay, this isn't particularly  feasible but I’m a GT student who also has a huge man-crush on Curry. Even though Jason Heyward has been shamelessly flirting with me since the beginning of April. Like, we get it, you're the most loveable young Atlanta athlete since I started paying attention to sports. You don't have to try to hard to impress me, it makes you look like a slut.)  Jamal Crawford can achieve similar trades since I doubt he fits into the Hawks plan longterm.

Free agent wise, I honestly feel like we have to get Haywood. There’s no other big man out there. Competition-wise, Nets, Heat, Knicks, and Bulls have their sights set on higher prizes or just outright don’t need him. Thunder don’t need him, Mavs might resign but I doubt it. No contender out West has the space to sign him, and no contender East really needs him or has space. If Yao opts out or retires, the Rockets could make a play for him, but Haywood makes a lot of sense for the Hawks. What that means for Josh Smith and Horford, I don’t know, but we need someone who can defend Dwight one on one. I didn’t watch any of the games, but the Magic were 1-3 against teams with Haywood on them this year(One of them was one by a Mike Miller buzzer beater but still) and the loss was by 5 points. Wouldn’t you love a 5 point loss to the Magic? Also, since JJ and Mo Evans are likely gone, free agent bargains include Mike Miller and Travis Outlaw.

To summarize, Sund can basically do whatever he wants. Horford, Marvin, and Bibby are probably locks to be on the team next year, but Teague, Zaza, Crawford, JJ, Josh and the draft rights to that dude we got in Greece could be anywhere. Luckily, Sund has a better track record with free agents than he does in drafting. Got Ray Allen for an aging Gary Payton. Got Ben Wallace in Detroit before Dumars put the rest of the puzzle together. So I’m optimistic. Just don’t do anything short sighted, like trading our first round for cash. Two words: Quincy Pondexter. Kid’s going to be a steal for someone.

(Ed. note. I know some of you will bristle at this question, but it is the elephant in the room. Might as well talk about it.)

Ok, so hypothetically, let’s say the Hawks win the next two games, then what happens? They go to Orlando and get(probably) thoroughly destroyed. Maybe they win 1 game, but honestly, more than that is just unrealistic optimism (I may have just defined fandom however). Orlando led the league in defensive efficiency, was second in offensive efficiency, and on top of that, is just a terrible matchup for the Hawks because Dwight Howard neutralizes what makes Horford effective and Lewis as a stretch 4 neutralizes Josh Smith, so the Hawks become more reliant on the perimeter both offensively and defensively. More reliant on the perimeter scoring is exactly the opposite of what anyone anywhere would prescribe to fix the ails of the Hawks, and the across the board pathetic Hawks perimeter defense is probably the most underrated story about these Hawks. (And don’t get me started on the switching. Maybe as a base defense, it can work. But all the time, every time? You think a defense where Lebron can choose to have Bibby guard him one-on-one at will is a good defense?) Soooo, yeah, sure they beat Milwaukee, but they don’t really have much of a chance of advancing further.

So they lose to the Magic and then what? Presumably, the thinking is, “Okay, they didn’t do it as easy as everyone expected, but they still did what we figured they would.” And the Hawks get rewarded for their 50+win season. Mike Woodson stays, Joe Johnson stays with a max deal, all financial flexibility goes and the Hawks are stuck with a mediocre team for the next 5 years whose only chance of getting better are if Josh Smith develops a reliable jumpshot and Marvin Williams can become a consistent weapon. Yeah, that sounds likely.

On the contrary, say the Hawks lose. The local and national media blast the Hawks. Fans are outraged. There’s no way Sund or the ASG could justify staying the course. Personally, even without Bogut, I always thought this series was going to be a lot closer than most people did, (even though I never thought  the Hawks would actually lose), but the defining characteristic of this team won’t be that they won 50+games for the first time in over a decade, or that this is actually one of the best teams in franchise history (sad as it is, only 4 times in 60 tries have the Hawks won more games, although the year the Hawks won the championship they only won 41 games), but that the Hawks lost to an injury ravaged, lesser talented team and played like a lottery team outside of the friendly confines of Phillips. Woodson’s definitely gone, someone else overpays Joe Johnson and the Hawks do a little renovating. I don’t know where the Hawks go from there, but I do know it’ll likely be better than handicapping themselves for the next 5,6 years with the Joe and Woody show. (Yes, yes, I know I wrote a previous fanpost saying the Hawks should resign Woodson after the first couple months. That was when they were playing like a 60 win ballclub and were a joy to watch every single time they played. Sue me. If one had to and one had to stay, I’d pick Woody to stay in a heartbeat because Woody can be easily gotten rid of.) And yes, I could have added more stream of consciousness poll options but I decided to exercise moderation.

So, there's been a debate raging across the blogowebs that brings up the some questions about whether dancers at NBA games are needed, such as do the dancers turn off potential female fans and do males really want to watch the sport of basketball peppered with a few gentle strokes of our basest instincts?

Personally, there was a time when I got excited watching cheerleaders and dancers at sporting events. Then I got laid and it wasn't quite as exciting. Now, don't get me wrong, I always have and always will like to oogle hot women, especially when they're gyrating, but when I scrape together enough money from my meager college funds to go to a Hawks game, the dancers do not appear on the list of reasons why I'm spending the cash on basketball rather than groceries. I'm not going to join any groups or march in any rallies, but if the league did ban dancers from NBA games, the decision wouldn't affect my desire to go to Hawks games. Kiss cam is better timeout entertainment anyway.

So, hypothetical question time, what would be your reaction if the NBA abolished dancers from NBA games?

Right now I should be studying for my Organic Chemistry exam I have in a few hours, but I’m feeling passionate about Woody’s situation right now so here we go. There's been a little talk about Woody deserving an extension, and I thought I would weigh in on my take as a fan.

Woody deserves an extension. Period. I don’t know what the rules are, (I know it’s too late for players to get extensions, but can coaches get them at any point in the season NFL-style?). Anyways, regardless, let me get this out of the way, I fully understand this is a player’s league. I could coach the Hawks to a winning record based on common sense. Mainly because these players are veterans now; I obviously couldn’t develop talent. Teague would be screwed…but my point is NBA players don’t perform significantly better regardless of who’s coaching them.  David Berri, who I love, has some pretty sweet research that shows that NBA players output fairly consistent production throughout their careers, regardless of teams, teammates and coaches. Before the season started, he predicted Richard Jefferson wouldn’t contribute much(he hasn’t), the Rockets would easily surpass their low expectations,(they have),  Hedo’s value was way overrated(well, that one was pretty obvious) and the only reason Don Nelson is in a position to surpass Lenny Wilkins record for most wins as a coach is because he lucked into Sidney Moncrief early in his career. I’m particularly grateful to David Berri because he’s going to make me some money because I bet a substantial amount of my limited college income on the over for the Rockets total wins(36) which, in retrospect, was/is pretty easy money.  Off the top of my head, the only thing he really whiffed on his previews was Josh Smith’s huge leap in production, but that’s cause Josh stopped(mostly) BSing with jumpshots and dominates around the basket now almost exclusively.

Ok, so if coaches don’t matter, why keep Woody? Coaches don’t matter when players get on the floor, but what they do behind the scenes is what really matters. Woody challenges his players to get better in the offseason and Marvin, Horford and Josh have responded by growing every year under him, (why big men develop better under Woodson than guards is beyond me).  He puts players into a position to perform at their optimal level. Flip Murray came in and had his best year under Woodson. Jamal Crawford is having one of his best years under Woodson if not the best. Name me one player who has left the Hawks under Woodson and went on blossom elsewhere. (Harrington and Diaw are the only ones who are even decent NBA players, and both have been traded since leaving the Hawks, Salim can’t get a job and Acie’s playing even less than he did here after already being traded again.)  

Look at the coaches for the East’s “Big 3.” Doc Rivers was on the hot seat until KG and Jesus Shuttleworth fell in his lap and then won Coach of the Year. SVG was fired during a championship run with the Heat and his job security was questioned as recently as last year’s playoffs before he beat the Celtics and Cavs and is now considered one of the best coaches in the NBA. Mike Brown’s offensive genius deduced that isolating Lebron at the top of the 3pt line 75% of the time, and 100% of contested 4th quarters is his best move. And he won Coach of the Year.  George Karl exceeded expectations and took his players to the WCF and yet he can’t get a multiyear extension. The perception of a coach’s performance is incredibly fickle.

Sure, Woody doesn’t implement the triangle, the Princeton offense, or Jerry Sloan’s offense, but he manages his players almost to perfection. Share the ball and space the floor is all he asks and he rides the hot hand. And it works. In the past, he was too reliant on Joe Johnson, but in all fairness, Horford wasn’t performing on the low block or hitting his jumpers nearly as well as he is now, and his touches this year have increased as a result. As much as we derided Woody for Josh camping out at the 3pt line in the past, Woody’s been telling him to get off it for years. It’s not his fault Josh didn’t decide to listen till this year.  And now he’s even got the testicular fortitude to bench Joe Johnson in the 4th quarter of a close game when his game is clearly hurting the team (ok, that only happened once, but how many other coaches would even consider the same in his situation?). Woody’s not coaching scared anymore, and the results are about as good as any coach in the league could coax.  Jay Triano is too afraid of his players to point out their defensive deficiencies…and they’re abysmal on the defensive end as a result. What great defensive players does Woody have? Josh is a great help defender, Horford’s good but out of position, Marvin’s alright, Joe can, but doesn’t really. Bibby, Crawford, Pachulia? Liabilities on most teams. And yet they play enough defense to give them a chance to win every night. Sure, the switching thing is annoying, but it’s not terrible.

This offseason further speaks to Woody’s appeal as a head coach. How many reports did you hear about Zaza, Bibby and Marvin speaking with other teams this offseason? Marvin even said he didn’t want to talk to other teams(though I can't find the interview now for the life of me), and Zaza definitely had demand on the open market as the only quality center besides Gortat who was a free agent.  If Woody was such a terrible head coach, would they all want to come back? Woody lets his players play free, and you can tell they buy in.

I thought the fact that Woody has still a head coach was laughable with a .300 record a couple years ago as the Hawks were backing into the playoffs. I thought we underachieved last year. But it’s undeniable that this team has gotten better every year Woody’s been at the helm and unless Red Auerbach rises from the grave, Phil Jackson decides to leave LA(and get younger), or Gregg Popovich demands to become the next Hawks head coach, there aren’t better options out there than Woody. As long as the players still listen to him, he needs to be extended before Toronto loses its mind and decides to overspend on our free agent head coach.