SB Nation User Blog: dobbs

What The "Experts" Don't Know

dobbs — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 15:29:46 -0000

We've all heard the reasons why the Lakers are the better team and how they're going to dismantle the Celtics with their superior passing, bench depth, and transcendant Zen philosophies. Kobe Bryant is the best player in the game and the team with the best player always wins the series. Blah. Blah.

Blah.

Unfortunately, there are a few things that the so-called "experts" don't know or have chosen to forget about. Let's review them, yes?

Hamilton Expected To Play

dobbs — Fri, 30 May 2008 15:23:58 -0000

CSN's Greg Dickerson has a report from shootaround. He is reporting that Richard Hamilton is expected to play this evening in Game 6.

This is actually good news for Celtics fans as Hamilton is unlikely to be as effective with an injury to his shooting elbow, and I'd much rather a 50% Hamilton splitting time in the backcourt with a 100% Rodney Stuckey than for Stuckey to simply get all of the playing time.

::Update::

Quotes from Hamilton on playing tonight:

"I have no choice. This is do or die," Hamilton, who suffered a strained right elbow near the conclusion of the Pistons' Game 5 loss in Boston, said after the team's shootaround Friday.
After shooting with the team, Hamilton said he had discomfort in his right elbow, but would play through it.
"Once I get out there and the adrenaline is going, I'll be fine," Hamilton said. "I told my teammates, 'Don't look at me as handicap.' ... I'm fine. I'm ready to roll."

Not exactly confident statements. "I have no choice"..."Discomfort"..."Don't look at me as a handicap."

While you never root for injuries, Rip doesn't sound anywhere near full strength. Hopefully the Celtics can capitalize and move forward to Armageddon versus the Lakers.

-Green17

C's Serve Up Another Blowout, Now 7-0

dobbs — Thu, 15 Nov 2007 04:36:44 -0000

After surviving an ugly first half of offensive basketball, the Celtics buckled down and got back to the type of ball movement that has become a staple of the team this year, crusing to a 22 point win over the Nets. The C's were undoubtedly a little drained from their win in Indiana -- a game that was intense and competitive despite the seemingly comfortable margin of victory. Boston would be less backup PG and 4th leading scorer "Steady" Eddie House, while the Nets did without the services of Mr. Half-Man/Half-Season, Vince Carter. Tired legs made this game begin an ugly duckling, but boy, did it ever turn into a beautiful swan...

{mosimage}First Quarter

New Jersey started things off with a defense tester -- a pick and roll with Jason Kidd engineered completely to see how the Celtics would play it. Garnett blitzed Kidd immediately and forced him to give it up. This was an important theme in the quarter, as whenever Garnett's man was involved with Kidd in a pick and roll, KG would trap. However, when Kidd set up without Garnett's man in the play, the Celtic defender generally played underneath the screen and dared Ason to shoot the ball. Kidd adapted well to this strategy and was making the correct decision time and again, getting to the rim for a layup past Rondo, hitting a couple long 2 pointers, and hitting a wide-open 3 pointer when left alone staring dead center at the rim. He finished the quarter with 10 points and got his teammates to the free throw line; pretty typical stuff from the perennial All-Star.

Perkins was the story for the Celtics in the first quarter, bouncing back hard from a subpar game in Indiana. The highlights: he stuffed Nenad Kristic's stand-up jumper one on one in the low block, threw a nice fastball to Garnett for a layup, and gathered his customary collection of rebounds. His presence was needed as the Big Three looked sluggish and were clearly not firing on all cylinders. Rondo also had a solid quarter, with his best play coming on an offensive rebound / semi no-look pass to KG for a thunderous dunk. Still, without their three best players in sync, the Celtics were overmatched by Kidd and inspired Sean Williams (who played an excellent game) and ended the quarter in the hole 23-17. The C's turned it over 5 times and were not moving the ball well at all. Kevin Garnett also finished the quarter with an inexplicable stat: no rebounds. It appeared that this was a game they could actually lose.

Second Quarter

Doc trotted out a small lineup of Scalabrine, Davis, Posey, and the Allen twins to open the second. With Ray Allen misfiring and Tony Allen out of his comfort zone at the PG spot, this unit didn't look good at all. Big Baby got whistled for his third foul on a very questionable possession battle and got sent to the pine in favor of Perkins. Moments later, Ray Allen got his first rest in favor of Pierce, and Garnett checked back in for Posey. Perkins made his presence felt immediately and put back a Garnett miss shortly after checking in. Allen ran the point with the rest of the starters for a good long stretch as Rondo was saddled with 2 fouls, but the results were just not there. He turned it over on consecutive plays and looked uncomfortable in the role. When Rondo checked back in at the mid-point of the quarter, he displayed his improved shooting touch a couple of times, cashing in when Kidd left him to double someone else. The Celtics were still playing catch up most of the time, as the Nets were constantly getting to the foul line off of Kidd's penetration.

The momentum shift appeared to occur with about 7 to play in the half when Nachbar attempted to isolate Scalabrine on the perimeter with a series of dribble moves, only to have Garnett switch out on him as time was winding down. KG, displaying his usual intensity, locked Nachbar up completely, shadowing his every move until he finally poked the ball loose: 24 second violation on the Nets. The C's immediately got the ball to Garnett after the TV timeout, and he responded with a long jumper off of Rondo's penetration. He then faked Jamaal Magloire and bailed the team out with another elbow J on the next possession with the shot clock at 2. The Celtics were sloooowly creeping back into the game, down 30-27. Good defensive possessions were exchanged between both teams for the next few minutes. The C's broke through and tied the game 30 all when Pierce stepped into the passing lane and went coast to coast for a layup. Kidd immediately responded with an 18 footer. A couple of turnovers and consecutive trips to the line by Tony Allen made it 34-34 on the final possession. What do we do in this situation, Celtic fans?

Isolate Paul Pierce, of course!

Pierce did his usual thing and drove into the lane, avoiding a late double by Jason Kidd and rolled one over the front of the rim to put the Celtics up 36-34 at the half. They would not trail again in the game.

Third Quarter

Bill Simmons talks frequently about the Juvenation Machine -- I believed Doc might actually have one of these devices in the locker room, as the team came out on a mission. They put on a passing clinic, beginning with Garnett's left elbow jumper on the first play. Pierce then stole the ball three seconds later and got to the line for a free throw. Jefferson made a jump shot, but Pierce attacked him back on defense, driving the lane and handing off to Perkins at the last second. The Nets had no choice but to foul, and Perk hit both of his attempts. Jefferson hit another jumpshot, but the difference in philosophies was clear: The C's were attacking the basket and moving the defense while the Nets were settling for outside shots. On the next possession, Perkins again showed off his above-average passing touch when Kidd came to double him on the block. He immediately recognized that Rondo would be open and Rajon nailed the open look calmly. Naturally, this angered Kidd and he raced back up the court and got an easy layup. The momentum was clearly in favor of the green as Perk sealed his man hard underneath the rim and laid it in. New Jersey misfired up the other end and Garnett swished another one from the elbow to make it 50-41. Lawrence Frank cried mea culpa and had to call a timeout to stop the onslaught from the suddenly red-hot Celtic squad.

Later on in the quarter, Kidd apparently decided to test Rondo's outside shooting again, doubling Garnett on the block. Rajon made Kidd pay once more, knocking down another 15 footer with confidence. Perkins had a crazy sequence where he made two perfect laser outlet passes off of NJ misses, but Rondo got absolutely swallowed up by Sean Williams on one of them and I believe Ray Allen turned the other one over. Ray Ray had a tough night at this point in the game (1-10 FG), but that would not last. Most of the New Jersey points this quarter came at stripe by Richard Jefferson, but the Nets were merely keeping pace after the Boston spurt to begin the half. As an aside, the Tony Allen Point Guard Project had largely ended; he returned to his normal slashing self, getting to the line several times and finishing the frame with a nice floater with 2.4 seconds on the clock. Boston took an 8 point lead into the 4th quarter, 62-54.

Fourth Quarter

Tony continued his relentless assault of the basket to begin the 4th, taking it to the cup and drawing the foul again, releasing after a monster block by Big Baby Davis. On the very next possession, Allen went for an encore, creating contact with just 4 left on the shot clock and heading to the line. Posey then took a charge on Kidd -- JP was generally all over the place as Doc went with a defensive oriented lineup for the early portion of the 4th: Davis, Posey, Rondo, and the Allens. The next big play really buried the Nets, as Ray Allen stripped Antoine Wright, Rondo picked up the loose ball and fired it to a trailing James Posey who ripped the net with a big triple. The good guys were up 14 points when Doc put Pierce back into the game with 8:39 to play. Ray Ray finally woke up from his slumber and contributed in the quarter with a three point dagger, a layup, and a couple of nice passes. Lawrence Frank finally threw up the white flag with about 5 minutes to go and removed Jason Kidd from the contest for good. The remaining clock was good old-fashioned gar-bahge time, with Garnett putting the exclamation point on the game with an old-school KG post backdown and throwdown. What was once a close game turned into yet another laugher as Boston held New Jersey to 33% FG shooting and eased their way into a 91-69 victory.

Stud of the game:

The Celtics team defense

I'll throw out an old cliche: defense wins championships. Well, this team has championship-caliber defense. I still cannot believe that I am saying this. The Celtics scrambled and locked the Nets down -- they really got nothing on the interior and probably would have lost by 30 if not for Sean Williams' efforts on the offensive glass.

Dud of the game:

This game was dudless. Six guys were in double figures and not a single player who saw action didn't contribute something to the victory. A total team victory such as this doesn't deserve a dud.

Another day, another W. Let's go out and pound Miami, shall we?

Celtics Outlast Pacers, Improve to 6-0

dobbs — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 04:01:38 -0000

On Tuesday night, the Celtics rolled in to Indiana as the league's only remaining undefeated team. They left without a blemish, scoring a 101-86 victory and improving to 6-0 in an ugly, foul-plagued battle with a gritty Pacer club. This game was unlike the others; the gorgeous ball movement on display most of the season was absent, and the Celtics relied on a steady diet of isolation and two man wing play to score the majority of their field goals. Though they may have left their pretty passing back in New Jersey, the team remembered to pack their trademark defense, (and does it ever feel weird to say that...) holding the Pacers to a stingy 35% from the floor.

Celtics Outlast Pacers, Improve to 6-0

dobbs — Wed, 14 Nov 2007 01:51:29 -0000

KG and the Kool-Aid Konflict

dobbs — Wed, 01 Aug 2007 20:02:34 -0000

Kevin Garnett is a Boston Celtic. It feels completely alien to say it, and it felt even more foreign watching his smiling mug hold up the #5 jersey. But I have to tell you, during the KG introduction / press conference / lovefest yesterday, I did something that I haven't done in a good, long while.

I went to the cupboard, took out a tall glass, and cupped it in my hands. I went over to the refrigerator and pressed the button for crushed ice. I pressed the button for water and it began to flow, filling my cup about three quarters of the way. I slid open a white drawer, took out a small packet of green powder, and ripped it asunder. I poured the contents into the crushed ice and water and watched the crystalline powder filter slowly to the bottom. After staring a minute, I cupped my hand over the top of that glass, swirled the mixture together, and pursed my lips. Eyes sealed shut, I tilted my head back and took a sip, long and slow.

More after the jump.

For the first time in over fifteen years, I tasted the sickly-sweet sting. A flood of emotion washed over me as I swished the liquid between my cheeks and through my teeth. I felt like Dwayne Wade in that Gatorade commercial, a little head on each of my shoulders.

"This feels wrong! What are you doing? You're not supposed to drink that stuff; you promised!"

"Just shut up and enjoy it, fool! We haven't felt this way in years! We've got a shot now, do you hear me? We've got a shot!"

When the news broke that the Garnett deal was actually happening, I was both stunned and saddened. Even if you were a big proponent of this trade, we really did mortgage the future. Heavily. How bright would that future have been? Who knows? I always maintained I'd at least like to see how Jefferson, Pierce, and Allen worked on the court together before committing our remaining trade assets. I would have liked to see who was desperate at the trade deadline and used Theo's expiring contract, Gerald Green, and future picks to secure the missing pieces and turn our team into a contender for the remainder of the Pierce/Allen tenure. How good could that team have been? We'll never know.

Danny went with the sure thing in Garnett over the nebulous future of the Jefferson-Pierce-Allen led team. I can't say that I blame him; it saves his job, Doc's job, pacifies the fanbase, makes the team relevant in both local and national media, brings millions in revenue to the team, and of course, gives the Celtics a puncher's chance to represent the Eastern conference in the NBA Finals and hopefully, hopefully, win it all.

Are we good enough to beat an elite team in the Western Conference? No, not with Tony Allen's health in doubt, Brian Scalabrine logging heavy minutes, and over-reliance on players who have yet to play a minute of professional basketball (Davis, Pruitt, Wallace). I wrote a few days ago decrying the fact that we appeared to be Done in Free Agency. The Garnett deal changes everything. Now, I actually believe Danny when he claims "we're not done." Man, we better not be done, or else we're in a heap of trouble.

I can't say that I'm as giddy as Jeff. The curmudgeonly realist in me simply can't overlook the depth issues facing the Celtics post-trade. We're still too thin in key areas. However, it seems that Boston is now a preferred destination for many of the remaining free agents out there and we should have the pick of the litter. Ownership has proven that they're willing to shell out for a championship and there's no turning back.

Let's be clear: this is an all-in move; if the Garnett/Pierce/Allen troika does not bring a title to Boston in the next 3-4 years, and Al Jefferson continues his ascent toward stardom, it will be deemed a failure. The team will have to rebuild for the following 5-6 without much youth in the pipeline while Bosh's Raptors, Howard's Magic, and the fully grown Baby Bulls all hit their prime. I really, really hope this works.

Regardless of the end-game, this team is going to be fun to watch and will win its fair share. After suffering through last season's tank-fest and having to cope with something so foreign to my nature (read: root against the Celtics) for so long, it's going to be fantastic to see a competitive product out there on the court.

I removed the glass from my lips long enough to swallow that first sip, and felt unusually refreshed as it left my mouth and cooled my throat. I went to raise the glass again, but hesitated. As much as I knew how good gulping down the rest of that green nectar would feel, something kept me from finishing the glass right then and there.

If you drink Kool-Aid too fast, you get a stomach ache.

I set the glass down and re-fixed my gaze on the New Big Three as they beamed proudly, displaying their jerseys in tandem under the strobe of a hundred camera flashes. They seemed genuinely ecstatic to be playing together. I wished the season would start tomorrow. I looked back at the glass, longingly, wanting to guzzle the lot of it.

No, no. Let's savor what's left of this glass, this time. Once it's gone, it might well be a long time before I'm capable of making another.

We're Not Done... or Are We?

dobbs — Fri, 27 Jul 2007 19:46:55 -0000

We're not done.

That's the mantra the Celtics brass keeps putting out there. Yet, as each day unfolds, more and more available free agents put their name on the dotted line for another team. I'm not sure if Danny even had his hat in the ring for any of the bigger fish, unless one considers Joe Smith a Sockeye sal-mon. Ohh, but remember folks, We're Not Done. They said so.

But uh, what if we are done? [gulp]

I peeked at Sports Illustrated's list of the ten best remaining free agents and wondered if the Celtics stood a chance at snagging any of them and if each would fill a need. For those that haven't read the piece, here they are, as ordered by SI:

1. Anderson Varejao 6'10 PF Restricted

He's big. He's Brazilian. He looks like Sideshow Bob. He plays solid defense and doesn't need the ball to impact a game. He's perfect for the Celtics, but comes at too high a price, I'm sure. Cleveland also holds all the power in trying to sign him. I don't think Varejao is truly valuable enough to make a run at in a sign and trade, either. He's offensively limited and might ultimately end up a hairier and more talented version of Scalabrine. That said, he's still probably one of the better fits of the available players.

2. Mickeal Pietrus 6'6 SG/SF Restricted

INTERIOR: GENERAL MANAGER'S OFFICE

[AINGE dials a rotary telephone]

AINGE: Hey Don, it's Danny again. Hey, we've got this great player, you might have heard his name -- Gerald Green? Yes, the Slam Dunk Champion Gerald Green! The very same! Did you know he can also shoot the three? Wow, I think he'd be really great in you guys' up and down system. I bet you can really use another wonderfully athletic player that loves to get up and down the floor and throw down nasty jams -- while also being a capable trailer for the spot up bomb. You'll absolutely love him, I promise! [pause] What do I want? Well, you know I just thought we might do size for size, and you've got that Pietrus kid still to sign, I was thinking we could do an offense for defense kind of thing and maybe throw in a... [click] Hello? Hello? Donnie? Don? Oh, dadgummitshuckswillickersgollymcgee!

[AINGE flips through a tattered Rolodex, landing on the tab marked 'Mc']

3. Chris Webber 6'10 PF Unrestricted

There was a time when I would have drunk a full glass of hemlock before contemplating Chris Webber in Celtic green. Now, I'm not so sure. I thought he was Done (with a capital D) before signing with Detroit. I don't know whether it was because he was energized by playing with a contender, but ole C-Webb put up some impressive numbers before the tank read 'E' in April. Detroit played Webber waaaay too many minutes, too; he'd be fine for about 20 minutes a night at age 34. Think before turning up your nose in disgust, please. He fills the Celtics' need for big man depth. He's an excellent passer and would be the perfect high post cog in the offense. He's a veteran and has played in many big games (no timeout jokes). I don't see anything wrong with throwing a 2 year deal his way. It's a risk that he might not stay committed to a non contending team, and he's of course a horrible defender -- but that lot has already been cast. We're going to win games this season by outscoring people with the Three Headed Monster, contrary to what Doc says. I'd really make a run at him. Outbid Mark Cuban. Yeah, I can't believe I'm saying it, either.

4. Andray Blatche 6'10 PF Restricted

I don't get the fascination with this kid. He hasn't done a thing in this league and yet he's the fourth best free agent remaining? Sure, sure, extrapolate his stats out over 48 minutes and you get blah blah blah... Doing the same thing to Perkins makes him look like Moses Malone, too.

5. Matt Barnes 6'7 SF Unrestricted

I get the sneaking suspicion that the Celts are after this guy. He's that athletic "power 3" that seems to fascinate ole Danny boy to no end; the knee-jerk signing of Brandon Wallace certainly proved that infatuation. Barnes isn't likely to leave the friendly confines of Nellieball, and any team that gets him out of Golden State is likely to have overpaid for the privilege. Barnes is a decent player, but one with a very fixed value. I'm utterly terrified we're going to throw a 4 year 35 million dollar deal his way. Let's hope that he's tired of bouncing around (five teams in five seasons) and agrees to a hometown discount.

6. Ruben Patterson 6'5 SG Unrestricted

Great stats last season. A rugged defender. Certifiably insane and a divisive presence in the locker room. Also the same size as just about every other player on the Celtics. Just the type of guy Doc wants around all his impressionable youngsters! Whatever he's asking for, let's triple it. [vomit]

7. Charlie Bell 6'3 PG Restricted

I would be working overtime to land this guy, but I doubt he wants a role as a backup PG after starting 64 games last year. No, he's not a true veteran point guard, but Bell would be a good fit for the team and slide in nicely to the "shooting point" role once filled by Delonte West. I think that role is more valuable to the Celtics this year than it ever has been, due to the amount of potential double-teaming the big three will face. What's the right price for Charlie? 3 years, 13 million, and a case of Wonka bars ought to do it.

8. Sasha Pavlovic 6'7 SF/SG Restricted

Cleveland should throw a bunch of money at Pavlovic and Varejao so that they'll be doomed to mediocrity for the next 4 years. Wouldn't that be a fantastic result after their fluke trip to the Finals? I just don't understand Pavlovic's value, especially in light of his playoff ineptitude. He's a one dimensional player and would be totally redundant on the Celtics. I'll even go one step further: I wouldn't even trade Gerald Green for him straight up. That should tell you a lot, because after Gerald's summer league stinkbomb, I'm ready to deal him for an alarm clock and a lube job at Meineke.

9. Ime Udoka 6'5 SG Unrestricted

I have to confess that I don't know much about Udoka, nor can I recall seeing him play. He seems to have some consideration around the league as a solid wing defender, but the Celtics already have Tony Allen for that purpose. Please get healthy, Tony. Whether you know it or not, the season might depend on it.

Wait, what's that sound? Is that a rotary phone?

10. Earl Boykins 5'nothing PG Unrestricted

I'll say this about the little bugger -- he does put up points in a hurry. But is that what the Celtics need? He's not really a shooter and he's likely to command a fairly hefty price. Some team (probably the Knicks, a hunch) will give him a fat contract and carte blanche to hoist up a lot of shots. There's just not enough basketball left to satisfy this little guy's mean appetite for attempts here in Boston.

Brevin Knight's name is still being bandied about, as is Juan Carlos Navarro's. I don't know much outside of Weiss' article on Navarro. Brevin Knight is a known quantity but most feel his reputation will prevent him ever from landing here. History has shown that if anything, Ainge has always erred on the side of good character.

In my earlier massive breakdown of the team, I didn't feel that the Celtics were doing to do anything beyond the Allen deal despite their proclamations. So far, I've been right. I didn't want to be, but there it is. Reviewing the list from S.I. made me question whether or not the Celtics had the a) interest or b) ability to sign/sign and trade for any of the leftover scraps. Sadly, my answer is still a resounding no. The restricted free agents all require sign and trade, and outside of Chris Webber, there isn't anyone particularly attractive on the unrestricted list. I think that Webber being the only available guy speaks to the sadness of the situation.

What about a regular trade? During the summer, they are rare birds. Usually teams stand pat going in to training camp and then play out the first half of the season before getting their trade juices flowing again in February. So uhhh... uhhh...

Yep.

I think we're done.

A Study of the Boston Celtics from the Department of Redundancy

dobbs — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 14:06:32 -0000

Author’s note: Much of the following article was written in the days prior to the draft. I have amended it in a fashion that retains the information on the players that left Boston in the Ray Allen deal and updated the piece with analysis of the trade. The details of my analysis are contained within spreadsheet I created which you can refer to here. The spreadsheet has been converted to HTML format and will open as a new web page in a new window or tab, depending on your browser settings. Click the "Read More" link below to read this six page article in its entirety!

Introduction

The Boston Celtics are a flawed basketball team. Fans have cited different reasons for the team’s woeful record over the past few seasons – laying the blame at the feet of a sub-par coach, key injuries, and inexperienced players. Others have called out GM Danny Ainge for his role in the whole affair. Although he has done well in the draft, acquiring quality talent in the middle to late rounds, Ainge’s trades and free agent signings have certainly been questionable. Although I believe that Danny has enhanced the roster that he inherited from the O’Brien era, the Celtics are now faced with a different problem: Years of drafting the "best player available" and attempting to correct prior errors in judgment through sideways trades have turned the Celtics into a case study in mismatched players and roster redundancy.

Contending basketball teams are often comprised of anywhere between one and three exceptional players with everyone else in the rotation providing some kind of specialized skill (role-players). These teams have areas of strength and overlap, but where they really succeed is in being able to mix players on the floor that complement one another and atone for each others’ weaknesses. Although the Celtics have "talented" players (obviously some will debate this point), their skill sets tend to duplicate one another relative to position and available court minutes. This issue goes far beyond the classic observation that Boston has too many players of similar size on the roster. Phoenix can get away with having James Jones, Raja Bell, Shawn Marion, and Boris Diaw on the court at the same time even though they’re all between 6’5 and 6’8. Size is not the primary issue.

Methodology

I could spend a lot of time tracing the lineage of how these C’s came to be and shedding many green tears over the state of the roster, but I’m more interested in the future. In order to do this, I evaluated each of the Celtics in 20 categories, ranking each on a scale of 1-5. Why 5? Because 10 would make The Man a little nervous.

1 – Poor

2 – Below Average

3 – Average

4 – Above Average

5 – Excellent

I apologize to anyone hoping for a system with snappier adjectives. The ratings were determined by both categorically analyzing the player against his peers on the team and then filtered once more against what I’d consider to be the standard-bearers for that particular skill in the NBA. For example, the standard bearers in the three point shooting category might be Mike Miller, Dirk Nowitzki, Ray Allen, etc. The categories are largely self-explanatory but I’ll cover them briefly:

Handle – Overall ballhandling ability with particular attention paid to in-traffic dribbling. Orien Greene graded out at a -5, in case anyone was wondering.

Awareness – General court sense on both offense and defense. Executing of diagrammed plays, proper recognition on pick and roll, and clock awareness are just a few examples. My rating of Gerald Green here was generous.

Passing – Court vision of course, but also recognizing what passes can and cannot be made. Also measures utilization of different types of passes to achieve the desired effect. Attempts to measure Steve Nash using this scale displayed an E on my calculator.

Creates Own – Naturally, the player’s ability to create his own offense. For smaller players, generally refers to ability to create a high percentage shot attempt in an isolation or pick and roll situation. For big men, generally refers to the ability to create a good shot in the low or high post area.

Short – Shooting efficiency from 4-15 feet. Leaners, in-betweeners, floaters, quick turnarounds, and the like.

Medium – Shooting efficiency from 15 feet and beyond. "The Lost Art."

Three-point – Three point shooting accuracy. Peers were tough here, I discounted a lot of the one season wonders and did a weighted attempt to percentage analysis… which was probably overkill, but hey.

Shooting off dribble – Measures ability to generate shots off the dribble: pull ups, fadeaways, step-backs, ball-fake sidesteps, or driving layup attempts.

Shooting off screen – Measures how effective the player shoots from behind a screen or in a pick and roll situation.

Finishing at rim – Finishing at the rim definitely deserves its own category; how effective a player is at dunks, layups, and putback attempts.

Draws fouls - Self-explanatory – the ability to get to the foul line by creating contact on a shot attempt.

Post up effectiveness – Ability to get a good shot from the low post area and general back to the basket skills.

On ball defense – How well a player guards his assigned man, staying in front of him. Recognizing proper distance and discipline (not fouling jumpshooters, giving certain players a lot of room but playing chest tight on others, etc.) as well.

Off ball defense – How well a player helps in the team defensive concept, which includes rotational help when a teammate is beaten off the dribble, giving fouls, playing passing lanes, ball denial, and ability to get through screens.

Offensive rebounding – Obvious. The Moses Malone category.

Defensive rebounding – Also obvious. Trust me, I’m exhausted going through these, too.

Blocking – Player quality as an administrator of Spalding tattoos.

Altering – Ability to challenge shots, altering the opponent’s attempt. Get a hand up, already! This skill really deserves its own category since there are many players that are excellent at challenging shots but don’t get many blocks. Bruce Bowen, Ron Artest, and most other stud perimeter defenders would earn 5s here.

Hustle – Tommy points, quantified.

Intangibles – Leadership, locker room character, passion and desire, and of course, Celtic Pride.

{mospagebreak}

Guards/Swingmen

When considering these ratings and before screaming, "Dobbs you idiot, Allan Ray is clearly a 4 in xxxx" or similar profanity laced attack on my mental faculty, realize that minutes on the court are a valuable fixed commodity in basketball. 48 minutes available at each position per game does not leave much time for inferior players if winning is the end goal. The best players should always receive the bulk of the minutes at a position as the first criterion. It seems crazy, I know.

Matchups, foul trouble, and fatigue all have to be considered, of course, but it was so rare that the Celtics ever used a philosophy as simple as "play the best players most of the time" as a starting point. Once the best individual players per position are determined, finding chemistry within lineups and matching players with complementary abilities on the floor together is the next task. The head coach never was able to determine this, partially due to injury, partially due to the redundancy issues I’m about to discuss, and partially, of course, due to his own ineptitude. Some of the lineups thrown out there last season really had to be seen to be believed. It’s almost as if the Celtics were trying to …

[cough]

Let’s begin with the team’s second most visible problem (the first one rhymes with Brock Slivers, for anyone left guessing): the glut at the swingman spots.

[Refer to the Guards/Swingmen section of the spreadsheet]

The most blindingly obvious conclusion from a cursory glance at the ratings is that Mr. Allan Ray should not be under any kind of consideration for court time. I’d like to believe that the only reason he saw the hardwood at all was due to injury, but Doc would have discovered a way to gift him 15 minutes a game, regardless. Ray can’t be lumped in with the point guards since he is far below average in all meaningful categories there, and his only NBA caliber attributes are duplicated by every other player competing with him for minutes. If he has a place in the league, it certainly is not with the Boston Celtics. This isn’t to say he’s a terrible player, but his skills certainly do not fill an area of need.

Next up the tree is fan-favorite Gerald Green. I realize that he is still young and possesses a good deal of potential, but I feel I have rated him accurately and fairly given his body of work. Right now, he is not deserving of much court time [cowering]. He is a disaster on defense and has the poorest court awareness of any of the swingmen. This is not new news, but what may be (to some) is that he is the possessor of one of the most redundant skill sets on the Celtics. Gerald’s effectiveness is limited to taking wide open three pointers and shooting behind screens, mostly due to his subpar ball-handling ability. He shies away from contact on dribble drives, preferring to force a low percentage but "clean" shot instead of going hell-bent to the rim and forcing contact.

He is the anti Tony Allen. Gerald can’t get many minutes at shooting guard due to defensive inadequacies, forcing him to play small forward where he must compete with Pierce and Gomes for minutes – both of whom are superior players right now. A fully healthy Wally Szczerbiak would still have a better option had he remained on the team; Wally was just better than Gerald in Gerald’s areas of strength while remaining equally limited on the defensive end.

Prior to his injury, Tony Allen enjoyed a breakout year and gave the Celtics exactly what they lacked from the shooting guard position. He overcame the fear of reinjuring his knee and fought through a spat of absolutely dreadful play at the very beginning of the season, becoming both a consistent scoring threat and a lock down defender. Though still a below average ball-handler, Allen’s first step allowed him to get to the rim consistently for a high percentage shot but more often a trip to the stripe.

His overall hustle and demeanor on the defensive end made fans much more forgiving of the occasional boneheaded pass or dribble off of his foot because his intensity was the fuel for both good and bad. I recently revisited Tony’s final game before the injury on DVR and he was absolutely dominant prior to going down. I’m not sure that he will ever be the same after the total destruction suffered to his knee, but if Allen returns to form, it would be a huge boon for the team. However, with Ray Allen now in the fold, I’m not sure how many minutes Tony can reasonably earn even if he does come back 100 percent.

Delonte West was a bit of an enigma, both on and off the court. I’m going to sorely miss his goofy personality and on-court resolve. Nobody, nobody was jerked around more last year than D. West. Doc had Delonte changing his game on a half-by-half basis, and the poor guy didn’t know who he should be each trip down the court. West was regarded highly around the league for his basketball IQ, hustle, and intangibles fused with above average shot making ability. Seattle fans will be fond of him. To be completely honest, I’d rather have traded Gerald Green. [ducking thrown objects] Danny’s banking an awful lot on Gabe Pruitt to fill West’s minutes at backup point guard, and he has nowhere near the intangibles that Delonte brought to the team.

There’s not much left to say about the outgoing Wally; he was playing up to his usual Szczerbistandards in November, averaging 20 PPG on 46% shooting and then once he got hurt, that was it. Attempts to return from the sprains were unsuccessful, to put it mildly. I am not sure that he is an NBA starter anymore, but it’s clear that he still possesses well above average ability in shooting the basketball. He would be wise to settle into a 20-25 minute instant-offense role off the bench in Seattle where he can carry the scoring load while not giving up too much defensively against the other team’s second line. But he’s likely to start for the Sonics, so it’s a moot point.

I’m not sure what more needs to be said about Paul Pierce, but the ratings naturally indicate that he is far and away the best player on the team. The injury concerns are extremely overblown; Pierce has been incredibly durable through his whole career. The nonsense I’ve been reading about how he’s suddenly on some kind of rapid decline because of the stress reaction in his foot and leaky elbow is utterly ridiculous. He was playing the best basketball of his career prior to going down, averaging 27.4 PPG, 8.5 RPG, and 3.9 APG while shooting 46% in November, and in ten games in December he was even better, posting 25.4 PPG, 5.8 PPG, 4.9 APG shooting the same FG% while rediscovering a 45% three point stroke not seen since his rookie year.

What most do not realize about P-squared: the way he plays basketball will make him effective far longer into the later years of his career than his peers who are more reliant on pure athleticism. When Vince Carter or Allen Iverson’s wheels go and they lose their trademark explosiveness, they will decline rapidly. Paul Pierce can score in the post, he can score off the dribble, he can score behind screens, he finishes well at the rim, he has an array of up-fakes and moves that perennially put him atop the league leaders in free throws attempted, and he is cagey enough on the defensive end that he’ll still be able to guard small forwards late in his career.

Pierce is not a one trick pony that’s going to be completely used up his mid thirties – it just won’t happen. The Ray Allen acquisition should end all trade speculation, too. The team has signaled that they are trying to appease their star and put the talent around him to make a championship run. Thoughts on that are forthcoming, I promise. Please keep reading; there are only a couple thousand more words to go!

It’s apparent that the swingman spots still are the biggest case of skill duplication on the team, even with the 2 for 1 replacement of West and Szczerbiak with Ray Allen. The team went ahead and drafted the second coming of Allan Ray in Gabe Pruitt with the 32nd pick, so there’s no net removal of redundancy. Danny’s "vision" is crystal clear: stockpile a team with enough quality outside shooting and the wins will pile up. Someone find me an example of a team that’s won a championship with that approach.

{mospagebreak}

Forwards/Centers

I’m not going to waste much space here on Ratliff and Olowokandi – at least not much more space than they wasted at the end of the bench last season. It’s clear that neither will have a place on the team next year, although I will say that Ratliff could have provided spot duty for about five to ten minutes a game as a defensive center if healthy in 06-07. Leon Powe has value as a rebounder and as a classic garbage man, but he really shouldn’t try to do too much on the offensive end. His size makes it extremely difficult to get his shot off against bigger players in the post (I saw him eat a tremendous amount of leather last year) and poor Leon really has no face-up game to speak of. Powe should stick to doing what he does best – getting under the other team’s skin and hitting the offensive glass with abandon. Will he be supplanted by Glen Davis? It’s certainly a training camp battle to watch.

[Refer to the Forwards/Centers section of the spreadsheet]

Brian Scalabrine was a lot better last year, but that isn’t saying much. On offense, his areas of specialty include making the occasional three, setting screens, and firing the ball right back to the man who just passed it to him a second ago. Outstanding! Only three more years left on his deal, by the way. Scabs did show occasional prowess on the defensive end, and his high awareness keeps him in the right spots on the court. What’s that saying though – the spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak? Yeah. Hey, when all you’ve got is hustle and a dream, it’s a hard knock life.

Last year was rough for big Kendrick Perkins. Plantar fasciitis robbed him of what little mobility he had, crippling the big fella in areas where he is classically strong: low post defense of his own man, rebounding, and altering shots on penetration. Offensively, he is a bit of a disaster, having only one go-to move (the right handed laser hook), but he is one of a few players on the team that doesn’t need the ball at all to have an impact. Perk is one of the least redundant players on the Celtics, as his skills are not duplicated by any of the other big men.

However, after 4 years it seems clear that he may not be starting center quality for a team with playoff aspirations. Foul trouble is still a major issue with Perk – a shame considering that he’s generally an effective player when measured on a per minute basis. I’m willing to give him a pass for last season, but the upcoming year is make or break – if the team manages to eventually acquire Jermaine O’Neal or Pau Gasol, Perkins’ deal is going to look awfully expensive for someone playing so few minutes. That’s a good problem to have, because it means the C’s landed one of those two whoppers, but I digress… It’s going on Perk’s 5th year and he needs to show that he can excel again in the aforementioned areas.

Is there anything negative to say about Ryan Gomes? He earned an average rating in just about every category according to my system. What the numbers can’t show, however, is how much Ryan has improved in the areas he was deficient in from his first season to his second. In his rookie year, after Doc Rivers discovered, "Hey, this guy is better than Scalabrine! Heck, he might even be better than Mark Blount! Maybe I should give him a look?", Gomes was used as undersized power forward that scooped up a ton of points on the offensive glass and hit the wide open shot off the pick and pop.

Over the summer, he was given a mandate to refine his small forward skills and develop an outside game. Ever the good soldier, he obeyed and returned to camp displaying an improved handle, a better array of face-up moves, and extended range on his jumper. He learned that he could swing the ball low under a defender’s outstretched arms and then flail upwards in a shot attempt, drawing a cheap foul. Ryan then showed that he could hit the three-pointer in the final chapter of last season, a revelation nobody never expected. I’m interested to see what he has in store for Celtic fans this year – remember: this is the 50th pick in the draft. Gomes does everything adequately and isn’t superior at any one skill, but he isn’t incredibly deficient at anything either. He’s just a solid basketball player – a good glue / rotation guy that is outperforming all expectations. Sadly, the Celtics are sure to lose him in free agency when his deal is up at the end of next season.

It’s no secret that Al Jefferson is the future of this franchise, but whether it’s as a player in uniform that continues to produce for the team or as a trade chip that nets the C’s something else… nobody can say with certainty right now. Why the team would put their best asset on any kind of block that doesn’t exist on a 94 foot basketball court is beyond me. This is a 22 year old kid that the team drafted, groomed, and is just now beginning to reach his potential… and he’s being shopped? Jefferson is a one of a kind big man with an array of moves that haven’t been seen in the NBA since McHale laced them up, a player who’s sure to be an All Star for many seasons in the future, and he’s being dangled like an air freshener on a rear view mirror? I could go on for hours about his up and under, feathery jump hook, left and right spins, jab step…

If I seem incredulous, it’s because… I am incredulous! Al’s already developed into an offensive monster with plenty of headroom for improvement, particularly on the defensive end. It just doesn’t make any sense to hear his name in trade rumors – even for Kevin Garnett. My nagging fear is that ownership is worried that he will ask for a max extension this summer, but Wyc and his cohort aren’t sure he’s worth it and are at least flirting with the idea of cashing in on Jefferson I surmise if the team can’t get an extension done this summer, Al will play out year 4 and go into year 5 as an unhappy restricted FA. That’s the only reason I can even contrive of Big Al’s name being thrown about in trade rumors. He is one of the three best young big men in the game with his entire career ahead of him. Lock him up on July 1 at 12:01 A.M., please. before he walks in free agency.

{mospagebreak}

Point Guards

Does Sebastian Telfair still get to play basketball without a nameplate on his locker? Can we get a ruling from someone? His status with the team is in doubt and though I’m sure the C’s are trying desperately to move him, he’s likely to have very little value around the league. When I first heard that the Celtics were acquiring Telfair, like many, I was excited that the team was finally getting a true pass-first point guard. After about twenty games, it was evident that he was not a pass-first point guard at all, but a much poorer shoot-first version of his Coney Island cousin.

Never before have I seen a player with such speed misuse it so egregiously. Wait, I forgot about Marcus Banks. There’s still some time left for Telfair to ‘get it’, but I doubt that he ever will. He’s a poor shooter, a poor finisher at the rim, and an even worse defensive player. The coaching staff rightfully buried him after all of these things became evident. Acquiring this knowledge only cost the Celtics Brandon Roy, who would be another totally redundant player on this team, but at least he’d have trade value!

[Refer to the Point Guards section of the spreadsheet]

Rondo has a ton of natural physical gifts and is with all likelihood the point guard of the future for the Celtics. Really. This time, it’s for real. He has all of the skills necessary to succeed at the position except for that one tiny small insignificant miniscule problem of not being able to shoot a lick. I posit the following though: is it possible to be an effective scorer in the NBA without being an effective shooter? I don’t mean adopting the Antoine Walker methodology of "take em’ till you make em’" either. I think that R-squared might be able to get away with it – he just needs to develop one shot: a pull up jumper/floater in the lane.

Since Rondo is so adept at getting to the rim even when the defender is playing off him, he’d only need to possess this one shot to make everyone forget that he can’t hit a mid-range jumper or three-pointer. Pair that one shot with an improved stroke at the free throw line and suddenly he’s in double digits with ease and isn’t someone Doc is afraid of "gumming up the offense" (one of the more ridiculous comments he’s ever made, by the way). Although Rondo needs to get better at half-court execution, he is one of three players on the team that can actually create for other players (Pierce and Jefferson are the others). Defensively, he is already well ahead of most rookie point guards. Rondo needs to add some strength so that he can recover from screens more quickly, but when he does, I can easily see him developing into a second or perhaps first team All-NBA quality defender in two or three years. No, MikeDFromNP did not just commandeer my keyboard.

{mospagebreak}

Needs, Strengths and Weaknesses

Prior to draft night, the needs most cited by fans around the blog, purely from a positional standpoint without any special attention paid to skill sets were:

A backup point guard
A face-up style high-post big man
A more consistent presence at the center position / overall big man depth
A defensive SF/PF type
A defensive SF/SG type

I believe that the team would most benefit from:

A passing big man that can facilitate the offense (think vintage Sabonis, Divac, Brad Miller)
A more mobile defensive presence in the middle (I wonder if Greg Oden would’ve worked out…)
Another wing defender as a Tony Allen insurance policy
A veteran point guard to spell Rondo and teach him new dirty tricks

My opinions are really just more specific evolutions of the fanbase en-masse. Now, it’s time to further assess areas of strength and weakness at the team level. Again, this is prior to draft night.

Strengths:

When healthy, plenty of shooters from medium to long range, creating good spacing
Three players capable of creating their own shot and break down a defense
Long on hustle and intangibles – good locker room atmosphere even amidst a lost season
Decent in getting to and making free throws at the line (11th in FTA and 10th in FT% as a team)

Weaknesses:

Very poor ball-handling and passing on the whole with many players below average in these areas
Too reliant on screen based jump shooting
Lack of defensive specialists both on the interior and perimeter
Low awareness but particularly in defensive situations, especially pick and roll defense (youth excuse goes here)

This was the list of available trade targets prior to the draft; obviously a couple of the names have since changed addresses:

[Refer to the Trade Targets section of the spreadsheet]

Everyone’s dream scenario (still) is finding a way to get Kevin Garnett to Boston without giving up Al Jefferson in the process. It’s not going to happen, it wasn’t ever going to happen, and it’s as dead as Dillinger now with Ray Allen in the fold. The team no longer has the assets to get KG, so perish any thought of seeing him in a Celtics uniform. The next best fit for this team is Pau Gasol, but there’s been nothing on that front for a long time. He would be the essential yin to Jefferson’s yang – a true high-post big man with passing ability, touch from the outside, and solid interior defense. I wish Chris Wallace would kindly repay Danny for years of gainful employment, but even with his generosity, I’m not sure the C’s have enough left to land Pau. Ratliff’s expiring contract, Gerald Green, and junk just isn’t that enticing to Memphis.

I’d definitely be on board for Jermaine O’Neal at a reasonable price. Boston has committed to winning in the 3 year window with the Allen deal and O’Neal’s shelf life certainly falls within that time frame. The Jazz claim Andrei Kirilenko isn’t available, but like an Ornette Coleman solo, that tune is subject to change. The Knicks scored themselves Zach Randolph and only had to give up the corpse of Steve Francis and Channing Frye. I’m sure that a certified nutbag headcase malignant lesion like Zach will be a perfect fit in the Big Apple. He’s definitely ready for the big city.

{mospagebreak}

Assessing the Ray Allen trade

And now it’s time to talk about the player the Celtics ended up with after it was all said and done: Mr. Walter Ray Allen. Here is the logic behind the move, from a front office perspective:

He is an upgrade to Szczerbiak and West.
There are now three players on the Celtics that can command a double team and indeed three potential All-Stars playing together.
It keeps Pierce from demanding a trade.
It makes the Celtics relevant again in the national media and will lead to television appearances and higher ticket sales.
If Cleveland can win the Eastern conference with their steaming pile of a roster, anything is possible.
Everyone saves their own skin if it works out.

The negatives:

Ray Allen is 32 years old, coming off bone spur surgery in both ankles. The list of aging shooting guards that remained elite well into their thirties is very, very short.
According to my rating system, he is the worst "available" player of the trade targets.
He does not contribute in any area of weakness, both from a positional standpoint and from a skills standpoint. In other words, Allen is simply more redundant shooting strength on a team that already possesses plenty of it.
The team’s commitment to Ray Allen signifies a vote of no confidence in the recovery of Tony Allen – a player whom when healthy, fills many areas of need.
The team traded a couple of its most marketable assets and only have the expiring contract of Theo Ratliff and Gerald Green left as true commodities.
Green’s development is further marginalized with both Pierce and Ray Allen claiming the bulk of the minutes at both of his playable positions. If he’s to ever become the star that many believe he can be, it surely will not be with this team.

I do not like the trade. Although I’ll surely enjoy watching Ray-Ray fill it up with his picture-perfect jumper, and I’ll surely enjoy watching the C’s back in the playoffs, ultimately I know that it’s all hollow. When building a team, prior to any move, a GM must look deep into his own soul and ask: "Does this move help us win a championship down the road?" I do not believe that adding Ray Allen alone makes the Boston Celtics capable of beating a Western conference opponent in the NBA Finals.

I do not believe that Danny Ainge’s method of building a team through acquiring layers of redundant strength in important areas can succeed in winning the title. The Celtics may be good enough to win the East if Jefferson continues his ascent towards All-Stardom and both Pierce and Allen remain healthy, but there are still too many areas of need left unaddressed to term this team as a true contender. It’s just another lateral move by Ainge, continuing his infatuation with finding a capable second banana / outside scorer / pure shooter to complement Pierce. Well, he’s landed the purest shooter in the league – there are no more excuses.

Regarding the second round draftees, neither of them seems equipped to make an impact. Gabe Pruitt is a long shot to make the team and unless Glen Davis really displays that he can get his shot off against NBA defenders, he won’t make it, either. I hope I’m wrong about Big Baby, because he could provide some needed big man depth. But at 6’9 and 289 pounds, I expect he’ll be too slow and cumbersome at both ends of the court to warrant much burn even if he does make the squad.

The Celtics probably aren’t going to be big players in free agency. Despite the owners signaling that they’re ready to win now, I just don’t see them making a lucrative offer to any of the big names. I do, however, look forward to the team making a splash by announcing that they’ve found their coveted veteran point guard and have inked Chucky Atkins to a 3 year deal. Somewhere in the distance, I hear Bill Simmons lighting himself on fire.

Should Brevin Knight become an unrestricted free agent, he’s the one to go after. I’d also love Gerald Wallace, but I’m not sure where he fits. What am I saying – of course he’d play power forward in one of Doc’s genius small-ball schemes. Matt Barnes? I have reservations. He’d add frontcourt depth at a minimum. Rashard Lewis? There may not be enough basketball to satisfy Pierce, Jefferson, and Ray Allen – forget adding Lewis to the mix.

Ainge may not be done dealing, but I’m not sure that’s something for fans to get excited over, given his track record. I just don’t think the assets are there to land another impact player.

If you’ve just reached the end of this epic, congratulations! And if you just finished a long session on the throne, please do me the courtesy of at least using the blank side of the printout. I don’t want to be overly cynical, but I love the Celtics more than anything, and it pains me to see the team mismanaged in every capacity. I truly hope the team wins a title in the Pierce era; I hope Danny can execute that one key move that puts the team in a genuine position to contend before the window is slammed shut.

Until next time, pass the Kool-Aid, but keep a cyanide pellet handy. You know, just in case.

Player Progression / Team Regression

dobbs — Tue, 16 Jan 2007 20:02:55 -0000

In a prior Cheap Seats piece "Celtics Still Defensively Challenged", I noted that the team was placing an awful lot of pressure on Sebastian Telfair to be the guy to put the C's into the echelon of winning basketball teams. Since the Celtics did not address any defensive shortcomings in the offseason, I reasoned that it would fall on the NYC prodigy to be the engine in an up-tempo scoring machine. Telfair would have to turn an already efficient offense into one that added ten to fifteen extra fastbreak points; Celtic games needed to be shooting gallery for the team to have any success. Obviously, Sebastian has failed in this regard. I don't know that he was ever really suited for this role, but I do know that fans have been continually promised one style of play prior to the season and been delivered another when the actual games start.

The search for a true pass-first point guard will continue, right after these important messages from our sponsors...

The overall sentiment on the blog is that this team is finished and should do everything in its power to secure a top pick in the talent rich 2007 NBA draft. Fans don't care so much about the wins and losses, as long as the Celtics continue to develop young players like Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, and Rajon Rondo. Player progression with team regression. If we can't be optimistic about the future of certain players, then the mere process of watching Boston get their collective heads caved in becomes a total soul-crushing excercise. We fans cling to little shreds of hope:

* Hey! Gerald had a good game! You see that dunk he threw down in the 3rd?
* Rondo got more than ten minutes tonight!
* Call me crazy, but I think that Scalabrine's breasts have actually shrank a full cup-size!

I think that fans have gotten too complacent in this regard. It's great that Al Jefferson is having a breakout season and that Gerald Green is turning into a factor on offense. Tony Allen, prior to his potentially career-limiting knee injury, was really taking off, too. Yet even with the individual growth of these players, the _team_ is still the same rudderless ship. Eventually, Paul, Wally, Delonte, and Perk will all be healthy. When they are, the production of certain players that are currently getting minutes due to other injuries has to drop. For example, Green is not going to score twenty a night with Pierce and Szczerbiak taking the bulk of the perimeter shots. Rondo's minutes will probably drop from sporadic to near nil, as Doc is clearly more comfortable with West as his starting point. Jefferson will probably get fewer touches too, although he is the one player that can truly make a difference in how the Celtic team plays offensive basketball. Right now, the net result just a substitution of similar cogs, amounting to a team that plays in the exact same way with different names on the jerseys.

The Celtics need to do two things to become successful:

1) Replace players with redundant skill sets with ones that fill a need.
2) Establish an identity of any kind on the basketball court.

The first responsibility falls on Danny and Doc. It's on the GM to recognize what the team's needs are, and it's on the coach to make sure that players are being utilized in the proper role. Unfortunately, both have failed in some capacity (Danny with the Telfair trade, Doc's offenses too numerous to detail). I'll save the who's redundant/who's not breakdown for another article. The second is on the coach to design and the players to implement. Tony Barone's job in Memphis is a perfect example. Within ONE GAME of taking over for Fratello, Barone turned the plodding pace of the Grizzlies into a clone of the Doug Moe era Denver Nuggets. The Grizz are now averaging 111.5 PPG with a roster most scouts would agree is inferior to Boston's from top to bottom. Memphis isn't winning many more games yet, but they have a much better chance to win playing Barone's style than Fratello's style, that much is certain. Therein lies the power of establishing a team identity that players believe in; Memphis is now known as a high-scoring fastbreak team, and it didn't take them much time.

Why can't the Celtics do the same thing? Al Jefferson can't run as well as Pau Gasol? Mike Miller is just that much better than Paul Pierce? Chucky Atkins is a better open court point guard than Rajon Rondo? I don't get it.

To look at the other extreme, let's say the Celtics are fortunate enough to land Greg Oden. Forget the fact that Oden is the consensus number one pick, he is also the best fit for the team because of the impact he makes on the defensive end. Wouldn't then the natural inclination be to model the team on the deadly inside-outside game of the championship era San Antonio Spurs with Oden and Jefferson masquerading as Duncan and Robinson and Pierce/Szczerbiak/Green filling the Manu Ginobili/Sean Elliott/Robert Horry roles? It's a pretty nice dream, I admit.

The Celtics have some talented youngsters, but individual player progression alone isn't going to turn this franchise into a winner. A style of play that fits with the team's personnel has to be implemented, and there's no time like the present to do it. Right now, the C's seem to be a high post / cross screening / jumpshooting team on offense and a rotation missing / penetration allowing / absolute turnstile on defense.

What would I do? Well, if I couldn't turn the Celtics into Memphis east...

In the halfcourt I'd be in favor of a simple binary pick and roll defense system like the old Dick Harter blitzing schemes, because the current one implemented during training camp is definitely not working (which was the case even before all of the injuries). Play Rondo upwards of thirty minutes a night and have him pressure in the backcourt on every made basket. Do not double team the low post except on players that truly command one.

On offense, once Paul and Wally are healthy, do a total conversion to a low post oriented offense and run everything through Jefferson in the halfcourt. Opposing teams will have to pick their poison: either double Big Al and two passes later have
Pierce/Szczerbiak/Green/West get a wide open shot, or single cover Jefferson and have him score more than 50% of the time. Take transition buckets when available, and look to score more on the break with the proper units on the floor (smallball has really struggled in the halfcourt of late).

That's just one sensible man's opinion, and we all know that Doc is anything but. Rivers has had his hands tied recently, to be fair, but he too seems content with the idea of player progression / team regression, and that just isn't something that I can tolerate from the head coach.

This team needs a basketball identity, and it needs one now.